WOBA explained

In baseball, wOBA (or weighted on-base average)[1] is a statistic, based on linear weights,[2] designed to measure a player's overall offensive contributions per plate appearance. It is formed from taking the observed run values of various offensive events, dividing by a player's plate appearances, and scaling the result to be on the same scale as on-base percentage. Unlike statistics like OPS, wOBA attempts to assign the proper value for each type of hitting event. It was created by Tom Tango and his coauthors for The Book: Playing the Percentages in Baseball.[3]

Usage

In 2008, sabermetrics website FanGraphs began listing the current and historical wOBA for all players in Major League Baseball.[4] It forms the basis of the offensive component of their wins above replacement (WAR) metric. Sites such as The Hardball Times have studied wOBA and found it to perform comparably to or better than other similar tools (OPS, RC, etc.) used in sabermetrics to estimate runs.[5] [6] The Book uses wOBA in numerous studies to test the validity of many aspects of baseball conventional wisdom.

The benefit of wOBA compared to other offensive value statistics is that it values not just whether the runner reached base but how.[7] [8] Events like home runs, walks, singles, etc. are given their own weight (or coefficient) within the linear formula. The weighting is based on the increase in expected runs for the event type as compared to an out. The coefficients change each season[9] based upon how often each event occurs.

Because the coefficients are derived from expected run value, we can use wOBA to estimate a few more things about a player's production and baseball as a whole. When using the formula (shown below), the numerator side on its own will give us an estimate of how many runs a player is worth to his team. Similarly, a team's wOBA is a good estimator of team runs scored, and deviations from predicted runs scored indicate a combination of situational hitting and base running.

Balls hit hard (i.e. with a high exit velocity) in the sweet spot produce higher wOBA.[10]

Historical versions of the formula

Coefficients for each tracked outcome vary by year. A historical record of these coefficients can be found at FanGraphs.

2023

Per Fangraphs, the formula for wOBA in the 2023 season was:

wOBA=(0.697*NIBB)+(0.727*HBP)+(0.855*1B)+(1.248*2B)+(1.575*3B)+(2.014*HR)
AB+BB-IBB+SF+HBP

where:

—————

Original formula

The formula below appeared in The Book.[11]

wOBA=(0.72*NIBB)+(0.75*HBP)+(0.90*1B)+(0.92*RBOE)+(1.24*2B)+(1.56*3B)+(1.95*HR)
PA

where:

Ranges for elite, very good, etc.

The following table serves as an aggregate summary of various wOBA scales available online.[12] [13]

wOBA Scale!Classification!Range
Elite.400 and Above
Very Good.371 to .399
Good.321 to .370
Average.320
Bad.291 to .320
Very Bad.290 and below

References

Notes and References

  1. Web site: The Language Of Fangraphs FanGraphs Baseball. 11 January 2010 . 2018-12-07.
  2. Web site: Linear Weights - FanGraphs Sabermetrics Library. www.fangraphs.com.
  3. Web site: wOBA - Weighted On Base Average. www.insidethebook.com.
  4. Web site: The Joy of wOBA - FanGraphs Baseball. www.fangraphs.com. 25 November 2008 .
  5. Web site: The great run estimator shootout (part 1) - The Hardball Times. www.fangraphs.com. 9 April 2009 .
  6. Web site: The great run estimator shootout (part 2) - The Hardball Times. www.fangraphs.com.
  7. Web site: What is a Weighted On-base Average (wOBA)? Glossary. Major League Baseball. en-US. 2018-11-09.
  8. Web site: wOBA FanGraphs Sabermetrics Library. www.fangraphs.com. 2018-11-09.
  9. Web site: Guts! . November 9, 2018 . FanGraphs.
  10. News: Ben. Clemens. A Sweet Spot by Any Other Definition. February 25, 2020. FanGraphs. March 14, 2024.
  11. Book: Tango, Tom M. . The book : playing the percentages in baseball . Lichtman, Mitchel G., Dolphin, Andrew E. . 28 April 2014 . 978-1-4942-6017-0 . [Place of publication not identified] . 919473395.
  12. Web site: Saber 101: Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA). Rogers. Mike. 2010-01-19. Bless You Boys. 2018-12-07.
  13. Web site: The Beginner's Guide To Deriving wOBA FanGraphs Sabermetrics Library. 11 April 2016 . 2018-12-07.