Electoral threshold explained

The electoral threshold, or election threshold, is the minimum share of votes that a candidate or political party requires before they become entitled to representation or additional seats in a legislature. This limit can operate in various ways, e.g. in party-list proportional representation systems where an electoral threshold requires that a party must receive a specified minimum percentage of votes (e.g. 5%), either nationally or in a particular electoral district, to obtain seats in the legislature. In single transferable voting, the election threshold is called the quota, and it is possible to achieve it by receiving only first-choice votes alone or by a combination of first-choice votes and votes transferred from other candidates based on lower preferences. In mixed-member-proportional (MMP) systems, the election threshold determines which parties are eligible for top-up seats in the legislative chamber. Some MMP systems still allow a party to retain the seats they won in electoral districts even when they did not receive the threshold nationally; in these systems, top-up seats are allocated to parties that do not achieve the electoral threshold if they win at least one district seat or meet some other minimum qualification.

The effect of this electoral threshold is to deny representation to small parties or to force them into coalitions, with the presumption of rendering the election system more stable by keeping out fringe parties. Proponents say that simply having a few seats in a legislature can significantly boost the profile of a fringe party and that providing representation and possibly veto power for a party that receives only 1 percent of the vote is not appropriate.[1] However, others argue that in the absence of a ranked ballot or other proportional systems, supporters of minor parties are effectively disenfranchised when barred from the top-up seats and are denied the right to be represented by someone of their choosing.

Two boundaries can be defined—a threshold of representation is the minimum vote share that might yield a party a seat under the most favorable circumstances for the party, while the threshold of exclusion is the maximum vote share that could be insufficient to yield a seat under the least favorable circumstances. Arend Lijphart suggested calculating the informal threshold as the mean of these.[2]

The electoral threshold is a barrier to entry for political parties to the political competition.[3]

Recommendations for electoral thresholds

The Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe recommends for parliamentary elections a threshold not higher than three percent.[4]

For single transferable vote, to produce representation for parties with approximately ten percent of the vote or more, John M. Carey and Simon Hix recommend a district magnitude of approximately six or more in the districts used.[5] [6] Support for a party is not homogenous across an electorate, so a party with ten percent of the general vote is expected to easily achieve the threshold in at least one district even if not in others. Most STV systems used today set the number of votes for the election of most members at the Droop quota, which in a six-member district is 14 percent of the votes cast in the district. Carey and Hix note that increasing the DM past six lowers the natural threshold in the district only in small increments and deceasingly each time.

Electoral thresholds in various countries

In Poland's Sejm, Lithuania's Seimas, Germany's Bundestag, Kazakhstan's Mäjilis and New Zealand's House of Representatives, the threshold is 5 percent (in Poland, additionally 8 percent for a coalition of two or more parties submitting a joint electoral list and in Lithuania, additionally 7 percent for coalition). However, in New Zealand, if a party wins a directly elected seat, the threshold does not apply.

The threshold is 3.25 percent in Israel's Knesset (it was 1% before 1992, 1.5% from 1992 to 2003 and 2% form 2003 to 2014) and 7 percent in the Turkish parliament. In Poland, ethnic minority parties do not have to reach the threshold level to get into the parliament and so there is often a small German minority representation in the Sejm. In Romania, for the ethnic minority parties there is a different threshold than for the national parties that run for the Chamber of Deputies.

There are also countries such as Finland, Namibia,[7] North Macedonia, Portugal and South Africa that have proportional representation systems without a legal threshold.

Australia

The Senate of Australia is elected using single transferable vote (STV) and does not use an electoral threshold or have a predictable "natural" or "hidden" threshold. At a normal election, each state returns six senators and the Australian Capital Territory and the Northern Territory each return two. (For the states, the number is doubled in a double dissolution election.) As such, the quota for election (as determined through the Droop quota) is 14.3 percent or 33.3 percent respectively. (For the states, the quota for election is halved in a double dissolution election.) However, as STV is a ranked voting system, candidates who receive less than the quota for election in primary votes can still end up being elected if they amass sufficient preferences to reach the Droop quota. Therefore, the sixth (or, at a double dissolution election, the 12th) Senate seat in each state is often won by a party that received considerably less than the Droop quota in primary votes. For example, at the 2022 election, the sixth Senate seat in Victoria was won by the United Australia Party even though it won only 4 percent of the primary vote in that state.

Germany

Germany, has a regular threshold of 5 percent, and ethnic minority parties have no threshold.[8] The 2021 election demonstrated the exception for ethnic minority party: the South Schleswig Voters' Association entered the Bundestag with just 0.1 percent as a registered party for Danish and Frisian minorities. The exception to the 5 percent electoral threshold by winning three constituency seats has been repealed in 2023. That exception allowed the Left to qualify for list votes despite getting just 4.9 percent.

Norway

In Norway, the nationwide electoral threshold of 4 percent applies only to leveling seats. A party with sufficient local support may still win the regular district seats, even if the party fails to meet the threshold. For example, the 2021 election saw the Green Party and Christian Democratic Party each win three district seats, and Patient Focus winning one district seat despite missing the threshold.

Slovenia

In Slovenia, the threshold was set at 3 parliamentary seats during parliamentary elections in 1992 and 1996. This meant that the parties needed to win about 3.2 percent of the votes in order to pass the threshold. In 2000, the threshold was raised to 4 percent of the votes.

Sweden

In Sweden, there is a nationwide threshold of 4 percent for the Riksdag, but if a party reaches 12 percent in any electoral constituency, it will take part in the seat allocation for that constituency.[9] As of the 2022 election, nobody has been elected based on the 12 percent rule.

United States

See also: Ballot access.

In the United States, as the majority of elections are conducted under the first-past-the-post system, legal electoral thresholds do not apply in the actual voting. However, several states have threshold requirements for parties to obtain automatic ballot access to the next general election without having to submit voter-signed petitions. The threshold requirements have no practical bearing on the two main political parties (the Republican and Democratic parties) as they easily meet the requirements, but have come into play for minor parties such as the Green and Libertarian parties. The threshold rules also apply for independent candidates to obtain ballot access.

List of electoral thresholds by country

Africa

Country Lower (or sole) house Upper houseOther elections
For individual partiesFor other typesOther threshold
Benin10%[10]
Burundi2%[11]
LesothoNone, natural threshold ~0.4%
Mozambique5%[12]
NamibiaNone, natural threshold ~0.69% 6 seats appointed by president
Rwanda5%
South AfricaNone, natural threshold ~0.2%
  1. Book: Reynolds, Andrew . Electoral system design : the new international IDEA handbook . International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance . Stockholm, Sweden . 2005 . 978-91-85391-18-9 . 68966125 . 59.
  2. Arend Lijphart (1994), Electoral Systems and Party Systems: A Study of Twenty-Seven Democracies, 1945–1990. Oxford: Oxford University Press. pp. 25–56
  3. http://www.jstor.org/stable/1816288 Tullock, Gordon. "Entry barriers in politics." The American Economic Review 55.1/2 (1965): 458-466.
  4. http://assembly.coe.int/nw/xml/XRef/Xref-XML2HTML-en.asp?fileid=17531&lang=en Resolution 1547 (2007), para. 58
  5. Carey and Hix, The Electoral Sweet Spot, p. 7
  6. Carey. John M.. Hix. Simon. The Electoral Sweet Spot: Low-Magnitude Proportional Electoral Systems. American Journal of Political Science. 2011. 55. 2. 383–397. 10.1111/j.1540-5907.2010.00495.x. free.
  7. Web site: Namibia | Election Passport .
  8. Web site: Germany passes law to shrink its XXL parliamen. .
  9. Web site: 29 March 2021 . Distribution of seats . 2024-07-17 . Valmyndigheten . en.
  10. https://bti-project.org/en/reports/country-report/BEN Benin Country Report 2022, Bertelsmann Stiftung
  11. http://www.ipu.org/parline-e/reports/2049_B.htm Electoral system
  12. http://www.ipu.org/parline-e/reports/2223_B.htm Electoral system

Asia and Oceania

Country Lower (or sole) house Upper houseOther elections
For individual partiesFor other typesOther threshold
AustraliaSingle-member districts for the House of Representatives
East Timor4%[13] [14] [15]
Fiji5%
Indonesia4%[16]
Israel3.25%[17]
Kazakhstan5%
Kyrgyzstan5% and 0.5% of the vote in each of the seven regions
Nepal3% vote each under the proportional representation category and at least one seat under the first-past-the-post voting
New Zealand5%[18] 1 constituency seat
Palestine2%
Philippines2% Other parties can still qualify if the 20% of the seats have not been filled up.
South Korea3%[19] 5 constituency seats10% (local council elections)[20]
Taiwan5%[21]
Tajikistan5%[22]
ThailandNone, natural threshold ~0.1%[23]
  1. Book: Reynolds, Andrew . Electoral system design : the new international IDEA handbook . International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance . Stockholm, Sweden . 2005 . 978-91-85391-18-9 . 68966125 . 59.
  2. Arend Lijphart (1994), Electoral Systems and Party Systems: A Study of Twenty-Seven Democracies, 1945–1990. Oxford: Oxford University Press. pp. 25–56
  3. http://www.jstor.org/stable/1816288 Tullock, Gordon. "Entry barriers in politics." The American Economic Review 55.1/2 (1965): 458-466.
  4. http://assembly.coe.int/nw/xml/XRef/Xref-XML2HTML-en.asp?fileid=17531&lang=en Resolution 1547 (2007), para. 58
  5. Carey and Hix, The Electoral Sweet Spot, p. 7
  6. Carey. John M.. Hix. Simon. The Electoral Sweet Spot: Low-Magnitude Proportional Electoral Systems. American Journal of Political Science. 2011. 55. 2. 383–397. 10.1111/j.1540-5907.2010.00495.x. free.
  7. Web site: Namibia | Election Passport .
  8. Web site: Germany passes law to shrink its XXL parliamen. .
  9. Web site: 29 March 2021 . Distribution of seats . 2024-07-17 . Valmyndigheten . en.
  10. https://bti-project.org/en/reports/country-report/BEN Benin Country Report 2022, Bertelsmann Stiftung
  11. http://www.ipu.org/parline-e/reports/2049_B.htm Electoral system
  12. http://www.ipu.org/parline-e/reports/2223_B.htm Electoral system
  13. http://www.ipu.org/parline-e/reports/2369_B.htm Electoral system
  14. http://www.cne.tl/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/4a-AlteracaoLeiEleitoralParlamento.pdf
  15. Timor Agora: PN APROVA BAREIRA ELEISAUN PARLAMENTAR 4%, 13 February 2017, retrieved 23 March 2017.
  16. Web site: New election bill, new hope for democracy.
  17. Web site: Electoral Threshold . 2024-07-10 . The Knesset.
  18. https://elections.nz/democracy-in-nz/what-is-new-zealands-system-of-government/what-is-mmp/ Electoral Commission: What is MMP?
  19. Web site: Election Districts and Representation System Elections for Public Office Elections NATIONAL ELECTION COMMISSION . nec.go.kr.
  20. Web site: Local Council Elections Elections for Public Office Elections NATIONAL ELECTION COMMISSION . nec.go.kr.
  21. Web site: Legislative Yuan Elections – Central Election Commission . 20 June 2014 . https://web.archive.org/web/20140409051103/http://engweb.cec.gov.tw/files/11-1030-4422-1.php . 9 April 2014 . dead .
  22. Web site: Tajikistan ruling party to win polls, initial count shows . . 2 March 2020 .
  23. Web site: Thailand's New Electoral System . 21 March 2019 . 4 September 2022 .

Europe

Country Lower (or sole) house Upper houseOther elections
For individual partiesFor other typesOther threshold
Albania3% 5% for multi-party alliances to each electoral area level[24]
Andorra7.14% (of votes cast)[25]
Armenia5%7% for multi-party alliances
Austria4% 0% for ethnic minorities
Belgium5% (at constituency level; no national threshold)
Bosnia and Herzegovina3% (at constituency level; no national threshold)
Bulgaria4%
Croatia5% (at constituency level; no national threshold)
Cyprus3.6% 1.8% in European Parliament elections
Czech Republic5% 8% for bipartite alliances, 11% for multi-party alliances; does not apply for EU elections
Denmark2%[26] [27] 1 constituency seat
Estonia5%
FinlandNone, but high natural threshold due to multiple districts
FranceNot applicable 5% in European Parliament elections[28] and in municipal elections for cities with at least 1000 habitants[29] [30]
Georgia5%[31] 3% for local elections in all municipalities but Tbilisi (2.5%)
Germany5%
0% for ethnic minorities0% in European Parliament elections
Greece3%
Hungary5% 10% for bipartite alliances, 15% for multi-party alliances, 0.26% for ethnic minorities (for the first seat only)
IrelandNatural threshold 8 – 12% because 3 to 5 seats in each constituency
Iceland5% (only for compensatory seats)[32]
Italy3% 10% (party alliances), but a list must reach at least 3%, 1% (parties of party alliances), 20% or two constituencies (ethnic minorities)3%4% in European Parliament elections
Kosovo5%
Latvia5%
Liechtenstein8%
Lithuania5% 7% for party alliances
Maltanatural threshold 12% due to district magnitude of 5
Moldova5% 3% (non-party), 12% (party alliances)
Monaco5%[33]
Montenegro3% Special rules apply for candidate lists representing national minority communities.[34]
Netherlands0.67% (percent of votes needed for one seat; parties failing to reach this threshold have no right to a possible remainder seat)[35] [36] 3.23% for European Parliament elections (percent of votes needed for one seat; parties failing to reach this threshold have no right to a possible remainder seat)
Northern Cyprus5%
North MacedoniaNone, but high natural threshold due to multiple districts
Norway4% (only for compensatory seats)
Poland5% 8% (alliances; does not apply for EU elections); 0% (ethnic minorities)
PortugalNone, but high natural threshold due to multiple districts
Romania5% 10% (alliances)
Russia5%
San Marino5%[37]
Scotland5%
Spain3% (constituency). Ceuta and Melilla use first-past-the-post system. None5% for local elections. Variable in regional elections.
Sweden4% (national level)
12% (constituency) 		Municipalities: 2% or 3%Regions: 3%European parliament: 4%
SwitzerlandNone, but high natural threshold in some electoral districts
Serbia3%[38] 0% for ethnic minorities[39]
Slovakia5% 7% for bi- and tri-partite alliances, 10% for 4- or more-party alliances[40]
Slovenia4%
Turkey7%[41] 7% for multi-party alliances. Parties in an alliance not being subject to any nationwide threshold individually. No threshold for independent candidates.
Ukraine5%[42]
Wales 5%

The electoral threshold for elections to the European Parliament varies for each member state, a threshold of up to 5 percent is applied for individual electoral districts, no threshold is applied across the whole legislative body.[43]

North America

Country Lower (or sole) house Upper houseOther elections
For individual partiesFor other typesOther threshold
Costa RicaNone, but high natural threshold due to its use of some multiple-member districts with less than 10 seats
Mexico3%
  1. Book: Reynolds, Andrew . Electoral system design : the new international IDEA handbook . International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance . Stockholm, Sweden . 2005 . 978-91-85391-18-9 . 68966125 . 59.
  2. Arend Lijphart (1994), Electoral Systems and Party Systems: A Study of Twenty-Seven Democracies, 1945–1990. Oxford: Oxford University Press. pp. 25–56
  3. http://www.jstor.org/stable/1816288 Tullock, Gordon. "Entry barriers in politics." The American Economic Review 55.1/2 (1965): 458-466.
  4. http://assembly.coe.int/nw/xml/XRef/Xref-XML2HTML-en.asp?fileid=17531&lang=en Resolution 1547 (2007), para. 58
  5. Carey and Hix, The Electoral Sweet Spot, p. 7
  6. Carey. John M.. Hix. Simon. The Electoral Sweet Spot: Low-Magnitude Proportional Electoral Systems. American Journal of Political Science. 2011. 55. 2. 383–397. 10.1111/j.1540-5907.2010.00495.x. free.
  7. Web site: Namibia | Election Passport .
  8. Web site: Germany passes law to shrink its XXL parliamen. .
  9. Web site: 29 March 2021 . Distribution of seats . 2024-07-17 . Valmyndigheten . en.
  10. https://bti-project.org/en/reports/country-report/BEN Benin Country Report 2022, Bertelsmann Stiftung
  11. http://www.ipu.org/parline-e/reports/2049_B.htm Electoral system
  12. http://www.ipu.org/parline-e/reports/2223_B.htm Electoral system
  13. http://www.ipu.org/parline-e/reports/2369_B.htm Electoral system
  14. http://www.cne.tl/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/4a-AlteracaoLeiEleitoralParlamento.pdf
  15. Timor Agora: PN APROVA BAREIRA ELEISAUN PARLAMENTAR 4%, 13 February 2017, retrieved 23 March 2017.
  16. Web site: New election bill, new hope for democracy.
  17. Web site: Electoral Threshold . 2024-07-10 . The Knesset.
  18. https://elections.nz/democracy-in-nz/what-is-new-zealands-system-of-government/what-is-mmp/ Electoral Commission: What is MMP?
  19. Web site: Election Districts and Representation System Elections for Public Office Elections NATIONAL ELECTION COMMISSION . nec.go.kr.
  20. Web site: Local Council Elections Elections for Public Office Elections NATIONAL ELECTION COMMISSION . nec.go.kr.
  21. Web site: Legislative Yuan Elections – Central Election Commission . 20 June 2014 . https://web.archive.org/web/20140409051103/http://engweb.cec.gov.tw/files/11-1030-4422-1.php . 9 April 2014 . dead .
  22. Web site: Tajikistan ruling party to win polls, initial count shows . . 2 March 2020 .
  23. Web site: Thailand's New Electoral System . 21 March 2019 . 4 September 2022 .
  24. http://www.cec.org.al/2004/eng/legjislacion/kodizgjedhor/Electoral%20Code.pdf The Electoral Code of the Republic of Albania
  25. Web site: PRINCIPALITY OF ANDORRA PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS 7 April 2019 ODIHR Needs Assessment Mission Report . OSCE . 19 February 2020 . 19 February 2020.
  26. Web site: Folketingsvalgloven. 24 February 2014.
  27. Book: Bille . Lars . Pedersen . Karina . Peter . Mair . Wolfgang C. . Müller . Fritz . Plasser . Political parties and electoral change . limited . 2004 . SAGE Publications . 0-7619-4719-1 . 207 . Electoral Fortunes and Responses of the Social Democratic Party and Liberal Party in Denmark: Ups and Downs.
  28. Web site: 3 January 2018 . Projet de loi relatif à l'élection des représentants au Parlement européen (INTX1733528L) . 7 January 2018 . Légifrance.
  29. Web site: 30 March 2014 . Les municipales, une élection pour profs de maths . 21 April 2023 . Slate FR.
  30. Web site: 9 February 2021 . Quel est le mode de scrutin pour les élections municipales dans les communes de 1 000 habitants et plus ? . 21 April 2023 . Vie Publique.
  31. Web site: Election code of Georgia . 2 September 2023 . Legislative Herald of Georgia . 27 December 2021.
  32. http://eng.innanrikisraduneyti.is/laws-and-regulations/nr/6713
  33. Web site: Election Profile . IFES . 11 February 2013.
  34. "These rules apply to lists representing a minority nation or a minority national community with a share of the total population of up to 15 per cent countrywide or 1.5 to 15 per cent within each municipality. If no minority list passes the 3 per cent threshold, but some lists gain 0.7 per cent or more of the valid votes, they are entitled to participate in the distribution of up to 3 mandates as a cumulative list of candidates based on the total number of valid votes. Candidate lists representing the Croatian minority are entitled to 1 seat if they obtain at least 0.35 per cent of the valid votes." Source: OSCE, 2016, Montenegro Parliamentary Elections 2016: OSCE/ODIHR Election Observation Mission Final Report
  35. Web site: Who can vote and for whom? How the Dutch electoral system works . DutchNews.nl . 30 January 2017 . en-GB . 18 November 2019.
  36. Web site: Election result . 19 June 2024 . www.houseofrepresentatives.nl . nl.
  37. Web site: OSCE report on 2019 parliamentary elections.
  38. Web site: Parliament agrees to 3% electoral threshold. 10 February 2020. Serbian Monitor. en-US. 5 March 2020.
  39. Web site: REPUBLIC OF SERBIA PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS Spring 2020 ODIHR Needs Assessment Mission Report . OSCE.
  40. https://www.zakonypreludi.sk/zz/2014-180 Slovak law number 180/2014 § 66, in Slovak
  41. Web site: 31 March 2022 . Turkey lowers national threshold to 7% with new election law . 31 March 2022 . Daily Sabah.
  42. https://en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/633561.html Electoral Code becomes effective in Ukraine
  43. https://www.europarl.europa.eu/factsheets/en/sheet/21/the-european-parliament-electoral-procedures The European Parliament: electoral procedures

South America

Country Lower (or sole) house Upper houseOther elections
For individual partiesFor other typesOther threshold
Argentina3% of registered voters[44] 1.5% of valid votes for primaries
Bolivia3%
BrazilNo national electoral threshold, for parties threshold is 80% of the natural threshold in the district; for candidates 20% of the natural threshold in the district.[45] [46] threshold for financial contributions is 2% at constituency level or 11 deputies in 9 states,[47] [48] [49] increasing 2026 to 2.5% and 2030 to 3%
ChileNone, but high natural threshold due to its use of multiple-member districts with less than 10 seats
Colombia3%
EcuadorNone, but high natural threshold due to its use of multiple-member districts with less than 10 seats
ParaguayNone, but high natural threshold due to its use of multiple-member districts with less than 10 seats
Peru5%[50]
Uruguay 1% 3%
  1. Book: Reynolds, Andrew . Electoral system design : the new international IDEA handbook . International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance . Stockholm, Sweden . 2005 . 978-91-85391-18-9 . 68966125 . 59.
  2. Arend Lijphart (1994), Electoral Systems and Party Systems: A Study of Twenty-Seven Democracies, 1945–1990. Oxford: Oxford University Press. pp. 25–56
  3. http://www.jstor.org/stable/1816288 Tullock, Gordon. "Entry barriers in politics." The American Economic Review 55.1/2 (1965): 458-466.
  4. http://assembly.coe.int/nw/xml/XRef/Xref-XML2HTML-en.asp?fileid=17531&lang=en Resolution 1547 (2007), para. 58
  5. Carey and Hix, The Electoral Sweet Spot, p. 7
  6. Carey. John M.. Hix. Simon. The Electoral Sweet Spot: Low-Magnitude Proportional Electoral Systems. American Journal of Political Science. 2011. 55. 2. 383–397. 10.1111/j.1540-5907.2010.00495.x. free.
  7. Web site: Namibia | Election Passport .
  8. Web site: Germany passes law to shrink its XXL parliamen. .
  9. Web site: 29 March 2021 . Distribution of seats . 2024-07-17 . Valmyndigheten . en.
  10. https://bti-project.org/en/reports/country-report/BEN Benin Country Report 2022, Bertelsmann Stiftung
  11. http://www.ipu.org/parline-e/reports/2049_B.htm Electoral system
  12. http://www.ipu.org/parline-e/reports/2223_B.htm Electoral system
  13. http://www.ipu.org/parline-e/reports/2369_B.htm Electoral system
  14. http://www.cne.tl/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/4a-AlteracaoLeiEleitoralParlamento.pdf
  15. Timor Agora: PN APROVA BAREIRA ELEISAUN PARLAMENTAR 4%, 13 February 2017, retrieved 23 March 2017.
  16. Web site: New election bill, new hope for democracy.
  17. Web site: Electoral Threshold . 2024-07-10 . The Knesset.
  18. https://elections.nz/democracy-in-nz/what-is-new-zealands-system-of-government/what-is-mmp/ Electoral Commission: What is MMP?
  19. Web site: Election Districts and Representation System Elections for Public Office Elections NATIONAL ELECTION COMMISSION . nec.go.kr.
  20. Web site: Local Council Elections Elections for Public Office Elections NATIONAL ELECTION COMMISSION . nec.go.kr.
  21. Web site: Legislative Yuan Elections – Central Election Commission . 20 June 2014 . https://web.archive.org/web/20140409051103/http://engweb.cec.gov.tw/files/11-1030-4422-1.php . 9 April 2014 . dead .
  22. Web site: Tajikistan ruling party to win polls, initial count shows . . 2 March 2020 .
  23. Web site: Thailand's New Electoral System . 21 March 2019 . 4 September 2022 .
  24. http://www.cec.org.al/2004/eng/legjislacion/kodizgjedhor/Electoral%20Code.pdf The Electoral Code of the Republic of Albania
  25. Web site: PRINCIPALITY OF ANDORRA PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS 7 April 2019 ODIHR Needs Assessment Mission Report . OSCE . 19 February 2020 . 19 February 2020.
  26. Web site: Folketingsvalgloven. 24 February 2014.
  27. Book: Bille . Lars . Pedersen . Karina . Peter . Mair . Wolfgang C. . Müller . Fritz . Plasser . Political parties and electoral change . limited . 2004 . SAGE Publications . 0-7619-4719-1 . 207 . Electoral Fortunes and Responses of the Social Democratic Party and Liberal Party in Denmark: Ups and Downs.
  28. Web site: 3 January 2018 . Projet de loi relatif à l'élection des représentants au Parlement européen (INTX1733528L) . 7 January 2018 . Légifrance.
  29. Web site: 30 March 2014 . Les municipales, une élection pour profs de maths . 21 April 2023 . Slate FR.
  30. Web site: 9 February 2021 . Quel est le mode de scrutin pour les élections municipales dans les communes de 1 000 habitants et plus ? . 21 April 2023 . Vie Publique.
  31. Web site: Election code of Georgia . 2 September 2023 . Legislative Herald of Georgia . 27 December 2021.
  32. http://eng.innanrikisraduneyti.is/laws-and-regulations/nr/6713
  33. Web site: Election Profile . IFES . 11 February 2013.
  34. "These rules apply to lists representing a minority nation or a minority national community with a share of the total population of up to 15 per cent countrywide or 1.5 to 15 per cent within each municipality. If no minority list passes the 3 per cent threshold, but some lists gain 0.7 per cent or more of the valid votes, they are entitled to participate in the distribution of up to 3 mandates as a cumulative list of candidates based on the total number of valid votes. Candidate lists representing the Croatian minority are entitled to 1 seat if they obtain at least 0.35 per cent of the valid votes." Source: OSCE, 2016, Montenegro Parliamentary Elections 2016: OSCE/ODIHR Election Observation Mission Final Report
  35. Web site: Who can vote and for whom? How the Dutch electoral system works . DutchNews.nl . 30 January 2017 . en-GB . 18 November 2019.
  36. Web site: Election result . 19 June 2024 . www.houseofrepresentatives.nl . nl.
  37. Web site: OSCE report on 2019 parliamentary elections.
  38. Web site: Parliament agrees to 3% electoral threshold. 10 February 2020. Serbian Monitor. en-US. 5 March 2020.
  39. Web site: REPUBLIC OF SERBIA PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS Spring 2020 ODIHR Needs Assessment Mission Report . OSCE.
  40. https://www.zakonypreludi.sk/zz/2014-180 Slovak law number 180/2014 § 66, in Slovak
  41. Web site: 31 March 2022 . Turkey lowers national threshold to 7% with new election law . 31 March 2022 . Daily Sabah.
  42. https://en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/633561.html Electoral Code becomes effective in Ukraine
  43. https://www.europarl.europa.eu/factsheets/en/sheet/21/the-european-parliament-electoral-procedures The European Parliament: electoral procedures
  44. http://infoleg.gov.ar/infolegInternet/anexos/15000-19999/19442/texact.htm Código Electoral Nacional
  45. https://www.poder360.com.br/opiniao/nova-regra-complica-distribuicao-de-vagas-de-deputados/ New rule complicates distribution of vacancies of Deputies, Jairus Nicholas May 3,2022
  46. http://www.planalto.gov.br/ccivil_03/_Ato2019-2022/2021/Lei/L14211.htm Brazil Law No. 14,211, of October 1, 2021
  47. News: Oliveira . José Carlos . Eleições deste ano trazem cláusulas de desempenho para candidatos e partidos . 10 August 2021 . Chamber of Deputies of Brazil . 30 June 2018 . pt-br.
  48. News: Sem votação mínima, 14 partidos ficarão sem recursos públicos . 11 August 2021 . R7 . 9 October 2018 . pt-br.
  49. News: Com dura cláusula de barreira, metade das siglas corre risco de acabar . 9 November 2021 . O Tempo . 12 July 2021 . pt-BR.
  50. Web site: Peru's small political parties scramble to survive. April 2016.

Legal challenges

The German Federal Constitutional Court rejected an electoral threshold for the European Parliament in 2011 and in 2014 based on the principle of one person, one vote.[51] In the case of Turkey, in 2004 the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe declared the threshold of 10 percent to be manifestly excessive and asked Turkey to lower it.[52] On 30 January 2007 the European Court of Human Rights ruled by five votes to two and on 8 July 2008, its Grand Chamber by 13 votes to four that the former 10 percent threshold imposed in Turkey does not violate the right to free elections (Article 3 of Protocol 1 of the ECHR).[53] It held, however, that this same threshold could violate the Convention if imposed in a different country. It was justified in the case of Turkey in order to stabilize the volatile political situation over recent decades.[54] [55]

Natural threshold

The number of seats in each electoral district creates a "hidden" natural threshold (also called an effective, or informal threshold). The number of votes that means that a party is guaranteed a seat can be calculated by the formula (

totalnumberofvotes
numberofseats+1

+\varepsilon

) where ε is the smallest possible number of votes. That means that in a district with four seats slightly more than 20 percent of the votes will guarantee a seat. Under more favorable circumstances, the party can still win a seat with fewer votes.[56] The most important factor in determining the natural threshold is the number of seats to be filled by the district. Other factors are the seat allocation formula (Saint-Laguë, D'Hondt or Hare), the number of contestant political parties and the size of the assembly. Generally, smaller districts leads to a higher proportion of votes needed to win a seat and vice versa.[57] The lower bound (the threshold of representation or the percentage of the vote that allows a party to earn a seat under the most favorable circumstances) is more difficult to calculate. In addition to the factors mentioned earlier, the number of votes cast for smaller parties are important. If more votes are cast for parties that do not win any seat, that will mean a lower percentage of votes needed to win a seat.[56]

In some elections, the natural threshold may be higher than the legal threshold. In Spain, the legal threshold is 3 percent of valid votes—which included blank ballots—with most constituencies having less than 10 deputies, including Soria with only two. Another example of this effect are elections to the European Parliament. In the Cyprus EU constituency, the legal threshold is 1.8 percent,[58] explicitly replacing the threshold for national election which is 3.6 percent.[59] Cyprus only has 6 MEPs, raising the natural threshold. An extreme example of this was in the 2004 EU Parliament elections, where For Europe won 36,112 votes (10.80%) and EDEK won 36,075 votes (10.79%); despite both parties crossing the threshold by a high margin and a difference of only 37 votes, only "For Europe" returned an MEP to the European Parliament.[60]

Other examples include:

Notable cases

See also: Vote splitting. An extreme example occurred in Turkey following the 2002 Turkish general election, where almost none of the 550 incumbent MPs were returned. This was a seismic shift that rocked Turkish politics to its foundations. None of the political parties that had passed the threshold in 1999, passed it again: DYP received only 9.55 percent of the popular vote, MHP received 8.34 percent, GP 7.25 percent, DEHAP 6.23 percent, ANAP 5.13 percent, SP 2.48 percent and DSP 1.22 percent. The aggregate number of wasted votes was an unprecented 46.33 percent (14,545,438). As a result, Erdoğan's AKP gained power, winning more than two-thirds of the seats in the Parliament with just 34.28 percent of the vote, with only one opposition party (CHP, which by itself failed to pass threshold in 1999) and 9 independents.

Other dramatic events can be produced by the loophole often added in mixed-member proportional representation (used throughout Germany since 1949, New Zealand since 1993): there the threshold rule for party lists includes an exception for parties that won 3 (Germany) or 1 (New Zealand) single-member districts. The party list vote helps calculate the desirable number of MPs for each party. Major parties can help minor ally parties overcome the hurdle, by letting them win one or a few districts:

The failure of one party to reach the threshold not only deprives their candidates of office and their voters of representation; it also changes the power index in the assembly, which may have dramatic implications for coalition-building.

Memorable dramatic losses due to electoral threshold

Coalitions due to electoral thresholds

There has been cases of tries to attempts to circumvent thresholds:

Number of wasted votes

Electoral thresholds can sometimes seriously affect the relationship between the percentages of the popular vote achieved by each party and the distribution of seats. The proportionality between seat share and popular vote can be measured by the Gallagher index while the number of wasted votes is a measure of the total number of voters not represented by any party sitting in the legislature.

The failure of one party to reach the threshold not only deprives their candidates of office and their voters of representation; it also changes the power index in the assembly, which may have dramatic implications for coalition-building.

The number of wasted votes changes from one election to another, here shown for New Zealand.[74] The wasted vote changes depending on voter behavior and size of effective electoral threshold,[75] for example in 2005 New Zealand general election every party above 1 percent received seats due to the electoral threshold in New Zealand of at least one seat in first-past-the-post voting, which caused a much lower wasted vote compared to the other years.

In the Russian parliamentary elections in 1995, with a threshold excluding parties under 5 percent, more than 45 percent of votes went to parties that failed to reach the threshold. In 1998, the Russian Constitutional Court found the threshold legal, taking into account limits in its use.[76]

After the first implementation of the threshold in Poland in 1993 34.4 percent of the popular vote did not gain representation.

There had been a similar situation in Turkey, which had a 10 percent threshold, easily higher than in any other country.[77] The justification for such a high threshold was to prevent multi-party coalitions and put a stop to the endless fragmentation of political parties seen in the 1960s and 1970s. However, coalitions ruled between 1991 and 2002, but mainstream parties continued to be fragmented and in the 2002 elections as many as 45 percent of votes were cast for parties which failed to reach the threshold and were thus unrepresented in the parliament.[78] All parties which won seats in 1999 failed to cross the threshold, thus giving Justice and Development Party 66 percent of the seats.

In the Ukrainian elections of March 2006, for which there was a threshold of 3 percent (of the overall vote, i.e. including invalid votes), 22 percent of voters were effectively disenfranchised, having voted for minor candidates. In the parliamentary election held under the same system, fewer voters supported minor parties and the total percentage of disenfranchised voters fell to about 12 percent.

In Bulgaria, 24 percent of voters cast their ballots for parties that would not gain representation in the elections of 1991 and 2013.

In the 2020 Slovak parliamentary election, 28.47 percent of all valid votes did not gain representation.[79] In the 2021 Czech legislative election 19.76 percent of voters were not represented.[80] In the 2022 Slovenian parliamentary election 24 percent of the vote went to parties which did not reach the 4 percent threshold including several former parliamentary parties (LMŠ, PoS, SAB, SNS and DeSUS).

In the Philippines where party-list seats are only contested in 20 percent of the 287 seats in the lower house, the effect of the 2 percent threshold is increased by the large number of parties participating in the election, which means that the threshold is harder to reach. This led to a quarter of valid votes being wasted, on average and led to the 20 percent of the seats never being allocated due to the 3-seat cap In 2007, the 2 percent threshold was altered to allow parties with less than 1 percent of first preferences to receive a seat each and the proportion of wasted votes reduced slightly to 21 percent, but it again increased to 29 percent in 2010 due to an increase in number of participating parties. These statistics take no account of the wasted votes for a party which is entitled to more than three seats but cannot claim those seats due to the three-seat cap.

Electoral thresholds can produce a spoiler effect, similar to that in the first-past-the-post voting system, in which minor parties unable to reach the threshold take votes away from other parties with similar ideologies. Fledgling parties in these systems often find themselves in a vicious circle: if a party is perceived as having no chance of meeting the threshold, it often cannot gain popular support; and if the party cannot gain popular support, it will continue to have little or no chance of meeting the threshold. As well as acting against extremist parties, it may also adversely affect moderate parties if the political climate becomes polarized between two major parties at opposite ends of the political spectrum. In such a scenario, moderate voters may abandon their preferred party in favour of a more popular party in the hope of keeping the even less desirable alternative out of power.

On occasion, electoral thresholds have resulted in a party winning an outright majority of seats without winning an outright majority of votes, the sort of outcome that a proportional voting system is supposed to prevent. For instance, the Turkish AKP won a majority of seats with less than 50 percent of votes in three consecutive elections (2002, 2007 and 2011). In the 2013 Bavarian state election, the Christian Social Union failed to obtain a majority of votes, but nevertheless won an outright majority of seats due to a record number of votes for parties which failed to reach the threshold, including the Free Democratic Party (the CSU's coalition partner in the previous state parliament). In Germany in 2013 15.7 percent voted for a party that did not meet the 5 percent threshold.

In contrast, elections that use the ranked voting system can take account of each voter's complete indicated ranking preference. For example, the single transferable vote redistributes first preference votes for candidates below the threshold. This permits the continued participation in the election by those whose votes would otherwise be wasted. Minor parties can indicate to their supporters before the vote how they would wish to see their votes transferred. The single transferable vote is a proportional voting system designed to achieve proportional representation through ranked voting in multi-seat (as opposed to single seat) organizations or constituencies (voting districts).[81] Ranked voting systems are widely used in Australia and Ireland. Other methods of introducing ordinality into an electoral system can have similar effects.

See also

External links

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