Russian roulette explained

Russian roulette is a potentially lethal game of chance in which a player places a single round in a revolver, spins the cylinder, places the muzzle against the head or body (of the opponent or themselves), and pulls the trigger. If the loaded chamber aligns with the barrel, the weapon will fire, killing or severely injuring the player.

Origin

According to Andrew Clarke, the first trace of Russian roulette can be found in the short story "The Fatalist", which was written in 1840 and was part of the collection A Hero of Our Time by Mikhail Lermontov, a Russian poet and writer.[1] In the story, which is set in a Cossack village, the protagonist, Grigory Alexandrovich Pechorin, claims that there is no predestination and proposes a bet in order to prove it, laying about twenty gold pieces onto a table. A lieutenant of the dragoons of the Tsar, Vulič, a man of Serbian origins with a passion for gambling, accepts the challenge and randomly takes one of a number of pistols of various calibres from its nail, cocks it and pours gunpowder onto the pan. Nobody knows if the pistol is loaded or not. "Gentlemen! Who will pay 20 gold pieces for me?", Vulič asks, putting the muzzle of the pistol to his forehead. He then asks Grigory to throw a playing card in the air, and when the card lands, he pulls the trigger. The weapon fails to fire, but when Vulič cocks the pistol again and aims it at a service cap hanging over the window, a shot rings out and smoke fills the room.[2]

Etymology

The term Russian roulette was possibly first used in a 1937 short story of the same name by Georges Surdez, published in the January 30, 1937, edition of Collier's magazine:

References to the term in the context of the Collier's story appeared in some newspapers during 1937.[3] The first independent appearances of the term in newspapers began in 1938 with the reports of young men being killed while playing it. The earliest instance appears to have been the death of a 21-year-old former journalism student in Austin, Texas, appearing in The Austin Statesman and some other Texas newspapers on January 8, 1938.[4] [5] At least four other deaths were attributed to Russian roulette during the year: a 34-year-old policeman in Peoria, Illinois,[6] [7] a 20-year-old in Houston,[8] an 18-year-old in Saratoga Springs, New York,[9] and a 16-year-old in Los Angeles.[10] [11]

Subsequently, the term became a metaphor for taking foolhardy risks and its usage steadily increased in reportage of diplomacy, politics, economics, medicine and sports.

Probability

Calculations in this section is based on the use of a six-shot revolver with a single chamber loaded. Abnormal factors, such as the possibility of a dud round, are not included.

Variant: revolver re-spun after each trigger pull

With this variant, turn order is essential, because the probability of losing decreases the later one's turn is.

Given a six-shot revolver, for any given single trial (pull), the probability of losing is

\tfrac1616.7\%

. However, since all players only come into the game if and when each of the players before them has caught an empty chamber, the all-game loss probability for player

k

(starting from 0) is reduced to

(\tfrac56)k\tfrac16

. The all-game loss probabilities for each of the six players are hence, in order,

16.7\%

,

13.9\%

,

11.6\%

,

9.6\%

,

8.0\%

, and

6.7\%

to one decimal place. More generally, for a revolver with

n

chambers, player

k

's all-game loss probability is

(\tfrac{n-1}{n})k\tfrac{1}{n}

.

The probability of the revolver having fired after six pulls is

1-(\tfrac{5}{6})6

, or about

66.5\%

. More generally, for a revolver with

n

chambers, the probability of the revolver having fired after

k

pulls is

1-(\tfrac{n-1}{n})k

, as this would be an instance of a geometric distribution where the success probability is

\tfrac{1}{n}

.

The average number of pulls for the gun to fire is

n

in this variant (six pulls, for a six-shot revolver).

Variant: revolver only spun once at the start

With this variant, turn order has no effect on the all-game loss probability, which remains the same for all players, but influences the single-pull probability, which increases with each pull.

Given a six-shot revolver, at pull

k

(starting from 0), the fact that all

k

previously tested chambers were empty reduces the total number of possible locations of the bullet to

{6-k}

, and the loss probability is therefore

\tfrac{1}{6-k}

. The single-pull loss probabilities for each of the six players are hence, in order,

16.7\%

,

20\%

,

25\%

,

33.3\%

,

50\%

, and

100\%

to 1 decimal place.[12] More generally, for a revolver with

n

chambers, the loss probability at pull

k

(starting from 0) is

\tfrac{1}{n-k}

.

However, since, like in the re-spinning variant, all players only come into the game if and when each of the players before them has caught an empty chamber, the all-game loss probability for player

k

is

\tfrac \cdot \prod_^ \frac = \frac \cdot \frac \cdot ... \cdot \frac \cdot \frac = \frac \approx 16.7\%

for

k>0

and
1
n-k

=

1
6

16.7\%

for

k=0

. Hence, the all-game loss probability for all players is

16.7\%

to 1 decimal place.

The probability of the revolver having fired after six pulls is

\tfrac66

or

100\%

in this variant (meaning the revolver will fire within six trigger pulls). And, more generally, after

k

pulls, it is

\tfrac{k}{n}

.

The average number of pulls for the gun to fire is

\tfrac{n+1}{2}

in this variant (3.5 pulls, for a six-shot revolver).

Notable incidents

Russian roulette in art

Drinking games

There is a drinking game based on Russian roulette. The game involves six shot glasses filled by a non-player: five are filled with water, but the sixth with vodka. Among some groups, low quality vodka is preferred, as it makes the glass representing the filled chamber less desirable. The glasses are arranged in a circle, and players take turns choosing a glass to take a shot from at random.[34]

There is also a game called "Beer Hunter" (titled after the Russian roulette scenes in the film The Deer Hunter). In this game, six cans of beer are placed between the participants: one can is vigorously shaken, and the cans are scrambled. The participants take turns opening the cans of beer right under their noses; the person who opens the shaken can (and thus sprays beer up their nose) is deemed the loser.[35]

Both are non-lethal compared to the game with the firearm which is almost always lethal.

See also

Notes and References

  1. Web site: The Deer Hunter Roberto Leoni Movie Reviews. 11 October 2019 . https://ghostarchive.org/varchive/youtube/20211211/k5gD8SCymTU. 2021-12-11 . live. 13 October 2019. YouTube.
  2. Web site: The Fatalist. Mikhail Lermontov. English Translation.. 18 October 2017. 13 October 2019. LiveJournal.com.
  3. News: 'Tween Lines . . 11-E . June 13, 1937 . February 28, 2023 . newspapers.com.
  4. News: Death Laid to 'Gun Roulette' . . 1 . January 8, 1938 . February 28, 2023 . newspapers.com.
  5. News: Russian Roulette Test Fatal to Austin Writer . . . 3 . January 8, 1938 . February 28, 2023 . newspapers.com.
  6. News: Police Officer Is Latest Victim Of Dangerous 'Russian Roulette' . . . 1 . July 6, 1938 . February 28, 2023 . newspapers.com.
  7. News: Dies as he Snaps 'Empty' Pistol at Head as Joke . . . 7 . July 6, 1938 . March 1, 2023 . newspapers.com.
  8. News: Russian Roulette Thrills Houston Youth to Death . . . 3 . July 8, 1938 . February 28, 2023 . newspapers.com.
  9. News: Another Life Taken by 'Russian Roulette' . . . . 1 . July 23, 1938 . February 28, 2023 . newspapers.com.
  10. News: Boy's Triple Death Gamble Told by Chum at Inquest . . 7 . November 22, 1938 . February 28, 2023 . newspapers.com.
  11. Web site: Is Travel Now a Game of Russian Roulette? . 29 March 2021 . 8 July 2024.
  12. Web site: 1 June 2015. Abnormal risks. live. https://archive.today/20191106183440/https://statisticalideas.blogspot.com/2015/06/abnormal-risks.html. 6 November 2019. 21 June 2017. Statistical Ideas.
  13. Web site: Bill Shockley, Part 2 of 3 . . PBS.org . 1999.
  14. Web site: Commonwealth v. Malone. casebriefs.com . 26 July 2014.
  15. News: Really Old School. Washington Post. December 25, 1998. Geoffrey. Himes.
  16. Web site: Novelist Graham Greene Played Russian Roulette as a Teenager . Paul . Gallagher . dangerousminds.net . December 12, 2013 . March 1, 2023.
  17. News: The Personal Evolution of a Civil Rights Giant. Edward. Rothstein. 19 May 2005. 21 June 2017. The New York Times.
  18. Web site: fr. Roulette russe, paradis artificiels, 'déglingue' : la relation survoltée de Johnny Hallyday et sa maîtresse Nanette Workman. www.programme-tv.net . 1 April 2022.
  19. Web site: fr. Quand Johnny Hallyday jouait à la roulette russe. www.parismatch.com . 13 April 2018.
  20. News: State Rests Case In Cain Murder Trial . . . 15 . November 14, 1973 . February 28, 2023 . newspapers.com.
  21. News: Dallas Policeman . . 2 . November 17, 1973 . February 28, 2023 . newspapers.com.
  22. In Memoriam . The Circus Report . 20 September 1976 . 5 . 38 . 2 . 2013-06-03 . https://web.archive.org/web/20120903213446/http://www.circushistory.org/Publications/CircusReport20Sep1976.pdf . 2012-09-03 . dead .
  23. News: Russian Roulette Act Misfires, Finnish Circus Performer Killed. Toledo Blade. September 10, 1976. 11. Google News. 21 June 2017.
  24. Web site: August 16, 2007. The Deer Hunter Suicides. April 26, 2013. Snopes.
  25. Book: Garbus, Martin. Courting Disaster: The Supreme Court and the Unmaking of American Law. registration. 135. hardcover. 2002-09-17. 2002. Times Books. 978-0-8050-6918-1.
  26. Web site: Photograph of Hinckley . University of Missouri Kansas City School of Law . 2008-12-11 . https://web.archive.org/web/20081122220144/http://www.law.umkc.edu/faculty/projects/ftrials/hinckley/hinkleygun2.jpg . 2008-11-22 . dead .
  27. Jon-Erik Hexum's Fatal Joke . 14 October 1994 . . 5 February 2013.
  28. News: Podcast : les derniers mystères sur la mort du rugbyman Armand Vaquerin. Podcast: the latest mysteries about the death of rugby player Armand Vaquerin. fr. Télérama. 4 June 2022. 7 November 2023.
  29. News: Roulette gun stunt 'a hoax' . BBC News . 2003-10-07 . 2007-09-02 .
  30. News: Alan Cumming's hero grandad died playing Russian roulette . David . Jarvis . . September 12, 2010 . March 1, 2023.
  31. News: MMA fighter 'killed himself playing Russian roulette' . https://ghostarchive.org/archive/20220112/https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/13/mma-fighter-killed-himself-playing-russian-roulette/ . 12 January 2022 . subscription . live . 13 June 2016. 13 June 2016. Adam. Boult. The Telegraph.
  32. Fishbain, David A., et al. «Relationship between Russian roulette deaths and risk-taking behavior: a controlled study.» Am J Psychiatry 144.5 (1987): 563—567.
  33. Book: Борис Акунин .
  34. Web site: Drinking Roulette Fun Game. roulettegamesvariety.com. 21 June 2017.
  35. Web site: The Beer Hunter. Modern Drunkard Magazine. dead. https://web.archive.org/web/20141209054418/http://drunkard.com/issues/01_07/md_drinking_games.html. 2014-12-09.