Potential superpower explained

A potential superpower is a sovereign state or other polity that is speculated to be or have the potential to become a superpower; a sovereign state or supranational union that holds a dominant position characterized by the ability to exert influence and project power on a global scale through economic, military, technological, political, and/or cultural means.[1] [2] [3]

After the United States, which, following the collapse of the Soviet Union, is currently considered to be the world's foremost[4] and sole widely undisputed[5] —and by some accounts only[6] [7] [8] —superpower, only China, the European Union, India, and Russia have consistently been academically discussed as potential superpowers of the 21st century, with Japan having been a former candidate in the 1980s.

China

The People's Republic of China has arguably received the most consistent coverage in the popular press of its potential superpower status,[9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] and has been identified as a rising or emerging economic and military superpower by academics and other experts.[15] [16] [17] [18] One source argued that "China certainly presents the most promising all-round profile" of a potential superpower, having high economic growth and a large population.[19] According to U.S. Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, China represents the "biggest geopolitical test of the 21st century" to the United States, as it is "the only country with enough power to jeopardize the current global order".[20]

Great focus has been placed on China's growing economic activity on the global stage, in particular where it has been in competition with the United States. Examples of this have included the establishing and large-scale expansion in countries joining the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank in contrast to traditional western institutions, along with the Belt and Road Initiative and China's role in the worldwide groundings of the Boeing 737 MAX.[21] [22] It has also been argued that the future is likely to be of growing competition between two highly dominant countries in the form of the United States and China while others begin to lag behind economically.[23] Predictions have also been made of it overtaking the United States as the world's largest economy in the 2020s.[24] Due to the country's rapidly developing AI industry, China has also been referred to as an "AI superpower".[25] [26] [27]

In contrast to this however there have been some who question how long this pace of economic growth could continue, with emphasis placed on China's very large but ageing and shrinking population of over 1.4 billion, and long-term effects of pollution within the country that have accumulated during its fast pace of industrialisation, and also that while it continues to grow it has yet to prove attractive to skilled immigration from outside the country in the same way other countries like the United States have.[28] [29] [30] [31] A supposed lack of soft power is another aspect of contention to China's status as a potential superpower.[32] [33]

There has been significant discussion around the ability for China to project power militarily. There has been argument that its ties with Russia and Central Asia could see the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation become the "NATO of the East".[34] It has also been argued that American absence from the Indo-Pacific region during the war on terror has allowed Chinese to actively challenge the United States as the pre-eminent power in the region.[35] Others have argued however that China still remains surrounded by potentially hostile nations and still lacks few friends or allies necessary for it to truly compete with the United States.[36]

European Union

See also: Eurosphere and Paneuropean Union.

The European Union (EU) has been called an emerging superpower or having already achieved that status, primarily to do with its economic power and political influence on the world stage. Factors highlighted have included its large population, the size and global reach of its combined economy, and the comparative unpopularity of US foreign policy.[37] [38]

Despite lacking a cohesive military of its own, with military capabilities still the matter of individual member states, it has been argued that this is irrelevant in the 21st century and accordingly so when considering the status of the EU as a potential superpower.[39] [40] Others however have questioned this interpretation, instead arguing that its lack of a unified military structure compared to the United States undermines the case that the EU is a potential superpower.[41] [42]

The EU's lack of political integration has also come under conflicting views regarding its effect on superpower status. Some have argued that its more "low profile" diplomacy and emphasis on the rule of law represent a new kind of geopolitical influence that fulfills the political requirements for consideration of being a superpower rather than simply failing to meet them.[43] Others however argue that its lack of a centralised foreign or defence policy leaves its effectiveness uncertain when compared to that of a more politically integrated union of states such as the United States,[44] and it has even been argued that the EU remains as little more than an extension of a Europe reliant or dominated by the United States.[45]

The European Union has been called a "regulatory superpower" due to the Brussels effect, which suggests that regulations and standards applicable in the EU will also be adopted by numerous countries outside the EU over time.[46] [47] [48]

India

See main article: India as a potential superpower.

The Republic of India has seen considerable coverage of its potential of becoming a superpower economically. Multiple opinions have pointed towards India's rapid economic development as a reason for it to be considered a potential superpower, in particular during the 2010s when it was predicted to outpace China's growth into the future.[49] [50] [51] [52] Economists and researchers at Harvard University have projected India's 7% projected annual growth rate through 2024 would continue to put it ahead of China, making India the fastest growing economy in the world.[53] [54] Over and above, India also has the advantage of having a very large and growing young population with a median age of 28, compared to China's median age of 39.[55]

While India's economic growth has continued, others have noted that inequality remains high in the country and that its potential for trading appears more limited compared to regional rivals such as China, and that despite India briefly becoming the world's fastest-growing economy in 2015 its growth declined below China's since 2018.[56] [57] [58] [59] [60]

It has also been argued that India's government and bureaucracy is also geared against emerging as a superpower, with it being argued that it "does very little collective thinking about its long-term foreign policy goals, since most of the strategic planning that takes place within the government happens on an individual level".[61]

Russia

Russia, since its imperial times, has been considered both a great power and a regional power. Throughout most of the Soviet-era, the Soviet Union was one of the world's two superpowers. However, after the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the Russian Federation as its successor state lost its superpower status. In the early 21st century, Russia has been suggested as a potential candidate for resuming superpower status,[62] [63] [64] while others have made the assertion that it is already a superpower.[65] In his 2005 publication entitled Russia in the 21st Century: The Prodigal Superpower, Steven Rosefielde, a professor of economics at University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, predicted that Russia would emerge as a superpower before 2010 and augur another arms race. However, Rosefielde noted that such an end would come with tremendous sacrifice to global security and the Russian people's freedom.[66] Stephen Kinzer of The Boston Globe compared Russia's actions with its own neighbouring territories, to those of "any other superpower", taking Ukraine and Crimea as examples.[67]

Others however have put forward more pessimistic views towards Russia's ability to regain its superpower status. A mixed opinion has been offered by Matthew Fleischer of the Los Angeles Times, contending that severe climate change would be necessary for much of Russia's inherent natural resources to become viable.[68]

Several analysts commented on the fact that Russia showed signs of an aging and shrinking population. Fred Weir said that this severely constricts and limits Russia's potential to re-emerge as a central world power.[69] In 2011, British historian and professor Niall Ferguson also highlighted the negative effects of Russia's declining population, and suggested that Russia is on its way to "global irrelevance".[70] Russia has, however, shown a slight population growth since the late 2000s, partly due to immigration, quickly rising birth rates, slowly declining death rates.[71]

Russia's ability to project hard power was also questioned following the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, with the Russian military's poor performance prompting economist Paul Krugman to suggest Russia was little more than a "Potemkin Superpower".[72]

Comparative statistics of current candidates

Country/UnionPopulation[73] [74] Area
(km2)		GDP (nominal)[75] GDP (PPP)Military
expenditures
(Int$ billion)[76] 		HDI[77] UN Security Council veto power
(USD million)Per capita ($)(Int$ million)Per capita (Int$)
United States332,632,9189,525,06725,035,16468,30922,675,27175,1808770.926 (very high)Yes
China1,411,778,7249,596,96118,321,19711,81926,656,76621,2912920.761 (high)Yes
447,706,2094,233,26217,127,53538,25620,918,06253,960186[78] 0.911 (very high)(France)
India1,400,625,8993,287,2633,468,566 3,05710,207,29010,47581.40.645 (medium)No
146,171,01517,125,1912,133,09211,6544,328,12231,96786.40.824 (very high)Yes

Former candidates

Japan

In the 1980s, some political and economic analysts predicted that Japan would eventually accede to superpower status, due to its large population, growing economic, military, industrial, technological and cultural influence, large gross domestic product, and high economic growth at that time.[79] Japan's economy was expected to eventually surpass that of the United States.[80] [81] [82] However, this prediction failed to materialise following a stock market crash and the resulting "Lost Decades", where Japan has suffered a flat to negative economic outlook,[83] while its population has been aging since the late 1980s before suffering real decline in total population starting in 2011.[84]

See also

External links

Notes and References

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  2. News: Leonard . Mark . 18 February 2005 . Europe: the new superpower . . 31 May 2015 . https://web.archive.org/web/20090327034443/http://www.cer.org.uk/articles/leonard_irish_times_18feb05.html . 27 March 2009.
  3. Book: McCormick, John . The European Superpower . 2007 . . John McCormick (political scientist).
  4. Web site: Lee . Yen Nee . 2020-09-17 . The U.S. is still a dominant power — but it's not clear if it remains the global leader . 2024-07-15 . CNBC . en.
  5. Web site: Mathew Burrows . Robert A. Manning . 2020-08-17 . What Happens When America Is No Longer the Undisputed Super Power? . 2024-07-15 . The National Interest . en.
  6. Web site: Bremmer . Ian . 2015-05-28 . 5 Reasons Why the US Remains the World's Only Superpower . 2024-07-15 . TIME . en.
  7. Book: Canada Among Nations, 2004: Setting Priorities Straight . 17 January 2005 . McGill-Queen's Press – MQUP . 978-0-7735-2836-9 . 85 . The United States is the sole world's superpower. . 15 July 2024 . https://web.archive.org/web/20230116145100/https://books.google.com/books?id=nTKBdY5HBeUC&q=Canada%2520Among%2520Nations%252C%25202004%253A%2520Setting%2520Priorities+Straight . 16 January 2023 . live.
  8. News: Dannatt . Richard . 2024-04-14 . America has just reminded us there is only one world superpower . 2024-07-15 . The Telegraph . en-GB . 0307-1235.
  9. Web site: Visions of China – Asian Superpower . CNN . 1999 . 19 July 2014 .
  10. Web site: China's military presence is growing. Does a superpower collision loom? . The Guardian . 1 January 2014 . 19 July 2014 .
  11. Cordesman, Anthony. 1 October 2019. China and the United States: Cooperation, Competition, and/or Conflict. 22 March 2021. Center for Strategic and International Studies. Seen from this perspective, such trends clearly that show that China already is a true economic superpower with growing resources and a steadily improving technology base. Its military structure is evolving to the point where China can compare or compete with the U.S. — at least in Asia..
  12. Web site: Silver, Laura. Devlin, Kat. Huang, Christine. 5 December 2019. China's Economic Growth Mostly Welcomed in Emerging Markets, but Neighbors Wary of Its Influence. 22 March 2021. Pew Research Center. China has emerged as a global economic superpower in recent decades. It is not only the world’s second largest economy and the largest exporter by value, but it has also been investing in overseas infrastructure and development at a rapid clip.
  13. News: Lendon, Brad. 5 March 2021. China has built the world's largest navy. Now what's Beijing going to do with it?. CNN. 22 March 2021. In 2018, China held 40% of the world's shipbuilding market by gross tons, according to United Nations figures cited by the China Power Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, well ahead of second place South Korea at 25%. Put in a historical perspective, China's shipbuilding numbers are staggering – dwarfing even the U.S. efforts of World War II. China built more ships in one year of peace time (2019) than the U.S. did in four of war (1941–1945)..
  14. Web site: Lemahieu, Herve. 29 May 2019. Five big takeaways from the 2019 Asia Power Index. 22 March 2021. Lowy Institute. China, the emerging superpower, netted the highest gains in overall power in 2019, ranking first in half of the eight Index measures. For the first time, China narrowly edged out the United States in the Index’s assessment of economic resources. In absolute terms China’s economy grew by more than the total size of Australia’s economy in 2018. The world’s largest trading nation has also paradoxically seen its GDP become less dependent on exports. This makes China less vulnerable to an escalating trade war than most other Asian economies..
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  22. Aboulafia, Richard . Boeing's Crisis Strengthens Beijing's Hand. Foreign Policy. March 20, 2019.
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  29. News: Timothy Beardson. Action Needed on the Environment. Huffington Post. 24 May 2013. 26 July 2014 . https://web.archive.org/web/20210226075322/https://www.huffpost.com/entry/china-pollution_b_3331929 . February 26, 2021.
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  40. Web site: Trevor Williams. Danish Envoy: Economic Strength Makes EU a 'Rising Superpower'. Globalatlanta. 29 October 2008. 19 July 2014.
  41. Web site: Robert Lane Greene. EU Constitution: A 'Superpower Europe' It Won't Be. Globalpolicy.org. 18 July 2003. 10 February 2012.
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  44. Europe vs. America by Tony Judt. The New York Review of Books. 10 February 2005. 10 February 2012.
  45. Zbigniew Brzezinski, Strategic Vision: America and the Crisis of Global Power, (New York: Basic Books, 2012), p 22, 126.
  46. Web site: dmalloy . 2023-06-15 . The world's regulatory superpower is taking on a regulatory nightmare: artificial intelligence . 2023-09-15 . Atlantic Council . en-US.
  47. Web site: kdaponte . 2023-05-24 . Meta fine shows EU is 'regulatory superpower,' Northeastern expert says . 2023-09-15 . College of Social Sciences and Humanities . en-us.
  48. Bradford . Anu . 2020-03-01 . The Brussels Effect: How the European Union Rules the World . Faculty Books. 10.1093/oso/9780190088583.001.0001 . 978-0-19-008858-3 .
  49. News: 2011-01-09. India 2025: What kind of superpower? . Michael . Dingman . . Bennett, Coleman & Co. Ltd. . 2012-02-10.
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  52. Zakaria . Fareed . March 5, 2006 . India Rising . Newsweek . August 2, 2014.
  53. News: New Growth Projections Predict the Rise of India, East Africa and Fall of Oil Economies . Harvard Kennedy School . 12 April 2016 . 7 May 2015 . https://web.archive.org/web/20160508145617/https://www.hks.harvard.edu/news-events/news/articles/new-growth-projections . 2016-05-08.
  54. News: India Will Be Fastest-Growing Economy for Coming Decade, Harvard Researchers Predict . The Wall Street Journal . Raymond . Zhong . 12 April 2016 . 1 January 2016.
  55. Web site: Silver . Laura . Huang . Christine . Clancy . Laura . Key facts as India surpasses China as the world's most populous country . 2024-02-23 . Pew Research Center . 9 February 2023 . en-US.
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  57. Web site: Khanna . Parag . Parag Khanna . The Rise of Non-Americanism . https://web.archive.org/web/20110629133515/http://www.newamerica.net/node/8987 . 2011-06-29 . New America Foundation . 2008-05-18 . 2012-02-10.
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  60. News: 2019-05-31. India loses place as world's fastest-growing economy . en-GB . BBC News . 2020-10-18.
  61. Miller . Manjari Chatterjee . May–June 2013 . India's Feeble Foreign Policy . Foreign Affairs . 92 . 3 . 14–18 . 27 June 2013 . Manjari Miller.
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  64. Web site: Q&A: The return of the Russian superpower? . 2024-07-12 . edition.cnn.com.
  65. News: A Superpower Is Reborn. The New York Times. 19 November 2015.
  66. Book: Steven Rosefielde. Steven Rosefielde. Russia in the 21st Century. UNC Press. February 2005. 978-0-521-54529-7.
  67. News: Stephen Kinzer. Russia acts like any other superpower. Boston Globe. 11 May 2014. 7 July 2014.
  68. News: Matthew Fleischer. How curbing climate change can prevent Russia from becoming a superpower. Los Angeles Times. 12 March 2014. 7 July 2014.
  69. News: Fred Weir. Despite huge cash bonuses to mothers, Russia's population is shrinking. GlobalPost. 3 November 2011. 8 July 2014.
  70. Niall Ferguson. In Decline, Putin's Russia Is On Its Way to Global Irrelevance. Newsweek. 12 December 2011. 2 August 2014.
  71. Mark Adomanis. Russia's Population Isn't Shrinking (It's Growing Very, Very Slowly). https://web.archive.org/web/20130609004205/http://www.forbes.com/sites/markadomanis/2013/05/11/russias-population-isnt-shrinking-its-growing-very-very-slowly/. dead. June 9, 2013. Forbes. 11 May 2013. 8 July 2014.
  72. Paul Krugman. Russia Is a Potemkin Superpower. https://web.archive.org/web/20220301041314/https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/28/opinion/putin-military-sanctions-weakness.html. live. 1 March 2022. New York Times. 28 February 2022. 1 March 2022.
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