Phase-out of fossil fuel vehicles explained

A phase-out of fossil fuel vehicles are proposed bans or discouragement (for example via taxes) on the sale of new fossil-fuel powered vehicles or use of existing fossil-fuel powered vehicles, as well the encouragement of using other forms of transportation. Vehicles that are powered by fossil fuels, such as gasoline (petrol), diesel, kerosene, and fuel oil are set to be phased out by a number of countries. It is one of the three most important parts of the general fossil fuel phase-out process, the others being the phase-out of fossil fuel power plants for electricity generation and decarbonisation of industry.[1]

Many countries and cities around the world have stated they will ban the sale of passenger vehicles (primarily cars and buses) powered by fossil fuels such as petrol, liquefied petroleum gas, and diesel at some time in the future.[2] Synonyms for the bans include phrases like "banning gas cars",[3] "banning petrol cars",[4] "the petrol and diesel car ban",[5] or simply "the diesel ban". Another method of phase-out is the use of zero-emission zones in cities.

Background

Reasons for banning the further sale of fossil fuel vehicles include: reducing health risks from pollution particulates, notably diesel PM10s, and other emissions, notably nitrogen oxides;[6] meeting national greenhouse gas, such as CO2, targets under international agreements such as the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Agreement; or energy independence. The intent to ban vehicles powered by fossil fuels is attractive to governments as it offers a simpler compliance target,[7] compared with a carbon tax or phase-out of fossil fuels.[8]

The automotive industry is working to introduce electric vehicles to adapt to bans with varying success and it is seen by some in the industry as a possible source of money in a declining market. A 2020 study from the Eindhoven University of Technology showed that the manufacturing emissions of batteries of new electric cars are much smaller than what was assumed in the 2017 IVL study (around 75 kg /kWh) and that the lifespan of lithium batteries is also much longer than previously thought (at least 12 years with a mileage of 15,000 km annually): they are cleaner than internal combustion cars powered by diesel or petrol.[9]

There is some opposition to simply moving from fossil-fuel-powered cars to electric cars, as they would still require a large proportion of urban land.[10] On the other hand, there are many types of (electric) vehicles that take up little space, such as (cargo) bicycles and electric motorcycles and scooters.[11] Making cycling and walking over short distances, especially in urban areas, more attractive and feasible with measures such as removing roads and parking spaces and improving cycling infrastructure and footpaths (including pavements), provides a partial alternative to replacing all fossil-fuelled vehicles with electric vehicles.[11] [12] Although there are as yet very few completely carfree cities (such as Venice), several are banning all cars in parts of the city, such as city centers.[13] [14]

Methods

The banning of fossil-fuelled vehicles of a defined scope requires authorities to enact legislation that restricts them in a certain way. Proposed methods include:

Fuel cell (electric) vehicles (FCVs or FCEVs) also allow running on (some) non-fossil fuels (i.e., hydrogen, ethanol,[19] methanol,[20]).

Cities generally use the introduction of low-emission zones (LEZs) or zero-emission zones (ZEZs), sometimes with an accompanying air quality certificate sticker such as Crit'air (France), to restrict the use of fossil-fuelled cars in some or all of its territory. These zones are growing in number, size, and strictness.[21] Some city bans in countries such as Italy, Germany, and Switzerland are only temporarily activated during particular times of the day, during winter, or when there is a smog alert (for example, in Italy in January 2020); these do not directly contribute to the phase-out of fossil fuel vehicles, but they make owning and using such vehicles less attractive as their utility is restricted and the cost of driving them increases.[22] [23] [24]

Some countries have given consumers various incentives such as subsidies or tax breaks to stimulate the purchase of electric vehicles, while fossil-fuelled vehicles are taxed increasingly heavily.

Helped by government incentives, Norway became the first country to have the majority of new vehicles sold in 2021 be electric. In January 2022, 88 per cent of new vehicles sold in the country were electric, and based upon current trends, they would most likely hit the goal of no new fossil fuel cars being sold by 2025.[25]

Places with planned fossil-fuel vehicle restrictions

International

At the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference held in Glasgow multiple governments and companies signed a non-legally-binding declaration to accelerate the transition to 100% zero emission cars and vans (the Glasgow Declaration). They wanted all new cars and vans to not emit any greenhouse gas at the tailpipe by 2035 in leading markets and by 2040 globally.[26] [27] The United States and China (the biggest car markets) did not sign and neither did Germany (the biggest car market in the EU). Also absent from the list of signatories were major car manufacturers Volkswagen, Toyota, Renault-Nissan and Hyundai-Kia.[28]

European Union

In 2018, Denmark proposed an EU-wide prohibition on petrol and diesel cars, but that turned out to be contrary to EU regulations. In October 2019, Denmark made a proposal for phasing out fossil fuel vehicles on the member state level by 2030 which was supported by 10 other EU member states.[29] In July 2021, France opposed a ban on combustion-powered cars and in particular on hybrid vehicles.[30] In July 2021, the European Commission proposed a 100% reduction of emissions for new sales of cars and vans as of 2035.[31] [32] On 8 June 2022, the European Parliament voted in favour of the proposal of the European Commission, but agreement with the European Union member states was necessary before a final law could be passed.[33] On 22 June 2022, German Finance Minister Christian Lindner stated that his government would refuse to agree on the ban.[34] But on 29 June 2022, after 16 hours of negotiations, all climate ministers of the 27 EU member states agreed to the commission's proposal (part of the 'Fit for 55' package) to effectively ban the sale of new internal combustion vehicles by 2035 (through '[introducing] a 100% emissions reduction target by 2035 for new cars and vans').[35] [36] [37] Germany backed the 2035 target, asking the Commission whether hybrid vehicles or -neutral fuels could also comply with the proposal; Frans Timmermans responded that the Commission kept an "open mind", but at the time 'hybrids did not deliver sufficient emissions cuts and alternative fuels were prohibitively expensive.'[36] The law for "zero CO2 emissions for new cars and vans in 2035" was approved by the European Parliament on 14 February 2023.[38]

Countries

Countries with proposed bans or implementing 100% sales of zero-emissions vehicles include China (including Hong Kong and Macau), Japan, Singapore, the UK, South Korea, Iceland, Denmark, Sweden, Norway, Slovenia, Germany, Italy, France, Belgium, the Netherlands, Portugal, Canada, the 12 U.S. states that adhered to California's Zero-Emission Vehicle (ZEV) Program, Sri Lanka, Cabo Verde, and Costa Rica.[39]

Country Start yearStatusScope Details
Armenia2040Signatory of the Glasgow Declaration[40] EmittingNew vehicle sales by 2040 at latest
Austria2040Signatory of the Glasgow DeclarationEmittingNew vehicle sales by 2040 at latest
Azerbaijan2040Signatory of the Glasgow DeclarationEmittingNew vehicle sales by 2040 at latest
Belgium2026[41] 2029[42] Climate plan2026: No further tax deductibility of Diesel, petrol employee company cars2029: (Flanders region) Diesel, petrol2026: Only for new cars which are provided as compensation to employees2029: (Flanders region) New car and van sales
Cambodia2040Signatory of the Glasgow DeclarationEmittingNew vehicle sales by 2040 at latest
Canada2035climate plan[43] [44] Diesel, petrol, non-electricNew light-duty vehicle sales.
Cape Verde2040Signatory of the Glasgow DeclarationEmittingNew vehicle sales by 2040 at latest
Chile2035Chilean government Green New Deal.[45] Diesel, petrolNew vehicle sales
People's Republic of China2035Government climate plan.[46] Diesel, petrolNew private vehicle sales and registration.
Costa Rica2050[47] [48] Proposed by Costa Rica President Carlos Alvarado as a "roadway" in 2019.Diesel, petrolNew light vehicle sales
Croatia2040Signatory of the Glasgow DeclarationEmittingNew vehicle sales by 2040 at latest
Cyprus2040Signatory of the Glasgow DeclarationEmittingNew vehicle sales by 2040 at latest
Denmark2030–2035[49] Diesel, petrolNew vehicle sales (2030), new hybrid vehicle sales will continue to be allowed until 2035.
Dominican Republic2040Signatory of the Glasgow DeclarationEmittingNew vehicle sales by 2040 at latest
Egypt2040[50] Government planDiesel, petrol, non-electricNew car sales
El Salvador2040Signatory of the Glasgow DeclarationEmittingNew vehicle sales by 2040 at latest
Ethiopia2024Ethiopia's Transport and Logistics Ministries announcement[51] Non-electricNew imported vehicles by 2024
Finland2040Signatory of the Glasgow DeclarationEmittingNew vehicle sales by 2040 at latest
Germany2030Bundesrat decision[52] EmittingNew car sales
Ghana2040Signatory of the Glasgow DeclarationEmittingNew vehicle sales by 2040 at latest
Greece2030Government plan[53] Emitting, non-electricNew vehicle sales
Holy See2040Signatory of the Glasgow DeclarationEmittingNew vehicle sales by 2040 at latest
Hong Kong (PRC)2035[54] Hong Kong Legislature plan, Special Administrative Region of the People's Republic Of China.Diesel, petrolNew private vehicle sales and registration.
Iceland2030climate plan[55] Cars than run exclusively on Diesel, petrolNew car sales, but with exceptions for regional considerations (areas where it would be difficult to ban petrol or diesel cars)
India2040Signatory of the Glasgow DeclarationPetrol, dieselNew vehicle sales[56]
Indonesia2050[57] Proposed by the Government as a "roadway" in 2021Diesel, petrolAll motorcycle sales (2040), all car sales (2050)
Ireland2040Signatory of the Glasgow DeclarationEmittingNew vehicle sales by 2040 at latest
Israel2030Emitting, non-electricNew car sales, newly imported vehicles
Italy2035Ministry of ecologic transition directive[58] EmittingNew private vehicle sales by 2035
New commercial vehicle sales by 2040
Japan2035Japanese government plancease sales of new Diesel-, petrol-only carsDiesel and petrol hybrid cars to continue to be sold indefinitely[59]
Kenya2040Signatory of the Glasgow DeclarationEmittingNew vehicle sales by 2040 at latest
Republic of Korea2035Government climate planPetrol, dieselNew vehicle sales.
Liechtenstein2040Signatory of the Glasgow DeclarationEmittingNew vehicle sales by 2040 at latest
Lithuania2040Signatory of the Glasgow DeclarationEmittingNew vehicle sales by 2040 at latest
Luxembourg2040Signatory of the Glasgow DeclarationEmittingNew vehicle sales by 2040 at latest
Macau (PRC)2035Macau Legislature plan, Special Administrative Region of the People's Republic Of China.Diesel, petrolNew private vehicle sales and registration.
Malaysia2050Malaysia Net-Zero Emission by 2050EmittingNew vehicle sales by 2050 at latest
Malta2040Signatory of the Glasgow DeclarationEmittingNew vehicle sales by 2040 at latest
Mexico2040Signatory of the Glasgow DeclarationEmittingNew vehicle sales by 2040 at latest
Morocco2040Signatory of the Glasgow DeclarationEmittingNew vehicle sales by 2040 at latest
Netherlands2030[60] coalition agreement[61] Diesel, petrolNew passenger car sales. Commercial vehicles to continue to use petrol and diesel until 2040.
New Zealand2040Signatory of the Glasgow DeclarationEmittingNew vehicle sales by 2040 at latest
Norway2025tax and usage incentives[62] Diesel, petrolAll new passenger cars. Commercial vehicles to continue to use petrol and diesel until 2035.
Pakistan2040National Electric Vehicles Policy (NEVP)[63] Emitting90 percent of the New vehicle sales by 2040 at latest
Paraguay2040Signatory of the Glasgow DeclarationEmittingNew vehicle sales by 2040 at latest
Poland2040Signatory of the Glasgow DeclarationEmittingNew vehicle sales by 2040 at latest
Portugal2035Government climate plan proposed by the ruling Socialist Party of Portugal.[64] [65] Diesel, petrolNew car sales
Rwanda2040Signatory of the Glasgow DeclarationEmittingNew vehicle sales by 2040 at latest
Singapore2023 (Public Sector Vehicles)[66] 1 January 2025 (Diesel-only Cars and Taxis)[67]

2025 (Non-electric airside light vehicles)[68] [69]

2030 (Petrol-only and Diesel-only Vehicles)[70]

February 2021 Climate plan, brought forward ten years earlier since 2020 announcement.Petrol, Diesel, non-electrifiedAll new cars procured and registered by the public sector will be clean energy vehicles with zero tailpipe emissions from 2023 onwards with all non-zero tailpipe emission public sector vehicles to be phased out by 2035. All new airside light vehicles to be of fully electric models from 2025 onwards.

Sales and Registration of all new Diesel-only Cars and Taxis to cease with effect from 1 January 2025.

Sales and Registration of all new Diesel-only Commercial Vehicles and Petrol-only Vehicles to cease by 2030.

All new vehicles to run on cleaner energy (electric, hybrid, hydrogen fuel cell) from 2030, phase-out of internal combustion engines (from the entire population of motor vehicles) completed by 2040.[71] [72]

Slovenia2031emission limit of 50 g/km[73] [74] Signatory of the Glasgow DeclarationAllow Diesel and petrol if emissions < 50 gr/kmNew car registration
Spain2040Signatory of the Glasgow DeclarationICENew passenger car sales only. Commercial vehicles[75] and motorcycles[76] to continue to use petrol or diesel.
Sweden2030coalition agreement[77] Diesel, petrolNew car sales
Taiwan2040[78] Government Climate plan announced by the Environmental Protection Administration.Diesel, petrolAll bus and government-owned car use (2030), all motorcycle sales (2035), all car sales (2040)
Thailand2035[79] [80] Only proposals of National Electric Vehicle Policy Committee, not yet effective in any way.Diesel, petrolNew car sales and new car registration.
Turkey2040Signatory of the Glasgow Declaration and declaration on lorries and buses[81] EmittingNew vehicle sales by 2040 at latest
Ukraine2040Signatory of the Glasgow DeclarationEmittingNew vehicle sales by 2040 at latest
United Kingdom2035,[82] 2040[83] Government planDiesel, petrolNew non-electric car sales and new hybrid car sales from 2035, new emitting lorry and bus sales from 2040
United States2035[84] [85] Imposed by US President Joe Biden as Executive Order 14057 that mandates all new light duty vehicles added to the government fleet are 100% zero emissions by 2027.Diesel, petrol, non-electricGovernment acquisition of light-duty vehicles (2027) and government acquisition of all vehicle types (2035). Entire fleet of government-owned vehicles with ICE engines will be phased-out and will be replaced with 100% all-electric vehicles by 2035–2040.
Uruguay2040Signatory of the Glasgow DeclarationEmittingNew vehicle sales by 2040 at latest
Vietnam2040–2050[86] [87] Program of Ministry of Transport of Vietnam; Vietnam Government Decision No. 876/QD-TTg, dated 22 July 2022EmittingAll vehicles on road must use electricity or net-zero fuel from 2050

Some politicians in some countries have made broad announcements[88] [89] but have implemented no legislation[17] and therefore there is no phase-out and no binding legislation.[90] Ireland, for example, had made announcements but ultimately did not ban diesel nor petrol vehicles.[91] [92]

The International Energy Agency predicted in 2021 that 70% of India's new car sales will be fossil powered in 2030,[93] despite earlier government announcements that were discarded in 2018.[94] In November 2021, the Indian government was amongst 30 national governments and six major automakers who pledged to phase out the sale of all new petrol and diesel vehicles by 2040 worldwide, and by 2035 in "leading markets".[56]

Cities and territories

European emission standards
(older) 1992 1996 2000 2005 2009 2014
Euro 0 Euro 1 Euro 2 Euro 3 Euro 4 Euro 5 Euro 6
Some cities or territories have planned or taken measures to partially or entirely phase out fossil fuel vehicles earlier than their national governments. In some cases, this is achieved through local or regional government initiatives, in other cases through legal challenges brought on by citizens or civil organisations enforcing partial phase-outs based on the right to clean air.

Some cities listed have signed the Fossil Fuel Free Streets Declaration, committing to banning emitting vehicles by 2030,[95] but this does not necessarily have the force of law in those jurisdictions. The bans typically apply to a select number of streets in the urban centre of the city where most people live, not to its entire territory. Some cities take a gradual approach to prohibit the most polluting categories of vehicles first, then the next-most polluting, all the way up to a complete ban on all fossil-fuel vehicles; some cities have not yet set a deadline for a complete ban, and/or are waiting for the national government to set such a date.

In California, emissions requirements for automakers to be permitted to sell any vehicles in the state were expected to force 15% of new vehicles offered for sale between 2018 and 2025 to be zero emission. Much cleaner emissions and increased efficiency in petrol engines mean this will be met with just 8% of ZEV vehicles.[96] The "Ditching Dirt Diesel" law SB 44 sponsored by Nancy Skinner and adopted on 20 September 2019 requires the California Air Resources Board (CARB) to "create a comprehensive strategy for deploying medium- and heavy-duty vehicles" to make California meet federal ambient air quality standards, and 'establish goals and spur technology advancements for reducing GHG emissions from the medium- and heavy-duty vehicle sectors by 2030 and 2050'. It stops short of directly requiring a phase-out of all diesel vehicles by 2050 (as the original bill did), but it would be the most obvious means of achieving the reduction goals.[97] [98] In August 2022, California Governor Gavin Newsom signed off on a new EV mandate. The plan's targets are 35% ZEV market share by 2026, 68% by 2030, and 100% by 2035.[99] This plan is accompanied by supporting funding for infrastructure and ZEV rebates totaling $10 billion. Newsom has stated his commitment to keep California at the forefront of zero-emission transportation.

In the European Union, Council Directive 96/62/EC on ambient air quality assessment and management and Directive 2008/50/EC on ambient air quality form the legal basis for EU citizens' right to clean air.[100] On 25 July 2008 in the case Dieter Janecek v Freistaat Bayern CURIA, the European Court of Justice ruled that under Directive 96/62/EC[101] citizens have the right to require national authorities to implement a short-term action plan that aims to maintain or achieve compliance to air quality limit values.[102] The ruling of the German Federal Administrative Court in Leipzig on 5 September 2013 significantly strengthened the right of environmental associations and consumer protection organisations to sue local authorities to enforce compliance with air quality limits throughout an entire city.[100] The Administrative Court of Wiesbaden declared on 30 June 2015 that financial or economic aspects were not a valid excuse to refrain from taking measures to ensure that the limit values were observed, the Administrative Court of Düsseldorf ruled on 13 September 2016 that driving bans on certain diesel vehicles were legally possible to comply with the limit values as quickly as possible, and on 26 July 2017, the Administrative Court of Stuttgart ordered the state of Baden-Württemberg to consider a year-round ban on diesel-powered vehicles.[100] By mid-February 2018, citizens in the EU member states the Czech Republic, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Romania, Slovakia, Spain, and the United Kingdom were suing their governments for violating the limit of 40 micrograms per cubic meter of breathable air as stipulated in the Ambient Air Quality Directive.[103]

A landmark ruling by the German Federal Administrative Court in Leipzig on 27 February 2018 declared that the cities of Stuttgart and Düsseldorf were allowed to legally prohibit older, more polluting diesel vehicles from driving in zones worst affected by pollution, rejecting appeals made by German states against the bans imposed by the two cities' local courts. The case was strongly influenced by the ongoing Volkswagen emissions scandal (also known as Dieselgate), which in 2015 revealed that many Volkswagen diesel engines were deceptively tested and marketed as much cleaner than they were. The decision was predicted to set a precedent for other places in the country and in Europe.[104] Indeed, the ruling triggered a wave of dozens of local diesel restrictions, brought about by Environmental Action Germany (DUH) suing city authorities and winning legal challenges across Germany.[105] While some groups and parties such as the AfD again tried to overturn them, others such as the Greens advocated for a national phaseout of diesel cars by 2030.[106] [107] On 13 December 2018, the European Court of Justice overturned a 2016 European Commission relaxation of car emission limits to 168 mg/km, which the Court declared illegal. This allowed the cities of Brussels, Madrid, and Paris, who had filed the complaint, to proceed with their plans to also reject Euro 6 diesel vehicles from their urban centres, based on the original 80 mg/km limit set by EU law.[108] [109]

City or territory Country Ban announced Ban commences Scope Details
AachenGermany20182019DieselOlder diesel vehicles (2019), unless pollution reduces.
AmsterdamNetherlands20192030[110] Diesel, petrolEuro I–III diesel cars (2020), non-electric buses (2022), pleasure crafts and (light) mopeds (2025), all vehicles (2030).[111]
AntwerpBelgium20162017–2025[112] Diesel, lpg, petrolEuro I–II diesels and 0 petrol/lpg (2017), Euro III diesels and 1 petrol/lpg (2020), Euro IV diesels and 2 petrol/lpg (2026),[113] all diesels (2031), all petrol (2035)[114]
ArnhemNetherlands2013, 20182014–2019[115] DieselEuro I–III diesel trucks (2014), all Euro I–III diesel vehicles (2019)*.
AthensGreece20162025[116] DieselAll vehicles
AucklandNew Zealand20172030Diesel, petrolAll vehicles, electric buses by 2025
Australian Capital TerritoryAustralia20222035[117] Fossil fuelsAll new light fossil fuel vehicles from 2035 encompassing passenger cars, motorcycles and small trucks. This policy forms part of the ACT Government's Zero Emissions Vehicles Strategy 2022–30.[118] The Strategy also targets 80–90% of new light vehicles sold by 2030 to be zero-emission models.[119]
Balearic IslandsSpain20182025–2035[120] Diesel, petrolAll vehicles
BarcelonaSpain20172030Diesel, petrolAll vehicles, electric buses by 2025
BerlinGermany20182019DieselEuro I–V diesel vehicles (2019).
BonnGermany20182019DieselOlder diesel vehicles (2019).
BristolUnited Kingdom20192021[121] DieselAll private vehicles (city center from 7 am to 3 pm)
British ColumbiaCanada20182025[122] Diesel, petrolAll vehicles by 2040, 10% ZEVs by 2025
Brussels RegionBelgium20182030–2035[123] [124] Diesel, petrolEuro 0–I diesels (2018),[125] Euro II diesels and 0–1 petrols (2019), Euro III diesels (2020), Euro IV diesels (2022), Euro V diesels and Euro 2 petrol (2025), all diesels (2030), all petrol vehicles (2035)[126]
CaliforniaUnited States20202035Net-emitting vehiclesAll passenger vehicles and light-duty trucks.[127] [128]
Cape TownSouth Africa20172030Diesel, petrolAll vehicles, electric buses by 2025
CologneGermany20182019DieselOlder diesel vehicles (2019).
ConnecticutUnited States20222035Non-electric vehiclesNew vehicle sales
CopenhagenDenmark20172030Diesel, petrolAll vehicles, electric buses by 2025
DarmstadtGermany20182019[129] DieselEuro I–V diesel vehicles on two streets (2019).
DüsseldorfGermany20132014Diesel, petrolEuro I–III diesel vehicles and Euro 0 petrol vehicles (2014).[130]
EindhovenNetherlands20202030[131] Diesel, petrolEuro I–III diesel trucks (2007), Euro I–III diesel buses (2021), Euro IV diesel trucks (2022), all Euro IV diesel vehicles (2025), all vehicles (2030).
EssenGermany20182030DieselOlder diesel vehicles.
FrankfurtGermany20182019DieselEuro I–V diesel vehicles and Euro 1–2 petrol vehicles (2019).[132]
GelsenkirchenGermany20182025DieselOlder diesel vehicles.
GhentBelgium20162020–2028Diesel, lpg, petrolEuro I–III diesel and 1 petrol/lpg (2020)*, Euro IV and Euro 2 petrol/lpg (2026)*[133], all diesels (2031), all petrol (2035)
HainanChina20182030[134] Diesel, petrolAll vehicles
HawaiiUnited States20222035Non-electric vehiclesNew vehicle sales
HamburgGermany20182018DieselEuro I–V diesel vehicles in one street, older diesel trucks in another street (2020).[135]
HeidelbergGermany20172030Diesel, petrolAll vehicles, electric buses by 2025
LausanneSwitzerland20212030[136] Thermic vehiclesZero mobility-related direct emissions
LombardyItaly20182019–2020[137] Diesel, petrolEuro I–III diesel and Euro 1 petrol (1 April 2019), Euro IV diesel (1 October 2020).
LondonUnited Kingdom20172020–2030[138] Diesel, petrolAll vehicles, electric buses by 2025 (two zero emissions zones by 2022)
Los AngelesUnited States20172030Diesel, petrolAll vehicles, electric buses by 2025
MadridSpain20162025DieselEuro I–III diesel and Euro 1–2 petrol vehicles (2018), all vehicles (2025).
MaineUnited States20222030Non-electric vehiclesNew vehicle sales, Rejected by state regulators[139]
MassachusettsUnited States20202035[140] Diesel, petrolWill set equivalent regulations to match California's Advanced Clean Cars Program
MainzGermany20182019Diesel, petrolEuro I–III diesel vehicles and Euro 0 petrol vehicles (2019).[141]
Mexico CityMexico20162025DieselAll vehicles
Italy20172030DieselAll diesel vehicles, electric buses by 2025
MoscowRussia2012, 20192013–2021Non-electricEuro I–IV bus purchases (2013), all non-electric bus purchases (2021), Euro I–III vehicles (20??), all non-electric vehicles (20??).[142]
MunichGermany20112012[143] Diesel, petrol2e
New JerseyUnited States20232035Net-emitting vehiclesNew vehicle sales[144]
New MexicoUnited States20222026Non-electric vehiclesNew vehicle sales
New York StateUnited States20212035[145] Non-ZEV vehiclesNew passenger cars and trucks and off-road vehicles and equipment
New York CityUnited States20202040[146] Non-electric vehiclesAll vehicles owned or operated by New York City
NijmegenNetherlands20182021[147] DieselEuro I–III diesel cars (2021).
North CarolinaUnited States20222035Non-electric vehiclesNew vehicle sales.[148]
OregonUnited States20212030All vehiclesGas cars (2025), gas trucks (2030)
OsloNorway20192030EmittingCity centre fossil-free (2024), entire city fossil-free (2030).[149]
OxfordUnited Kingdom20172020–2035Diesel, petrolAll vehicles (initially during daytime hours on six streets)[150] [151]
ParisFrance20162025DieselAll vehicles
QuebecCanada20202035Diesel, petrolBan of new gas-powered vehicle sales by 2035.[152]
QuitoEcuador20172030Diesel, petrolAll vehicles, electric buses by 2025
Rhode IslandUnited States20222035Non-electric vehiclesNew vehicle sales
RomeItaly20182024[153] DieselAll vehicles, only from historical center
RotterdamNetherlands2015[154] 2016DieselEuro I–III diesel trucks (2016). Other bans were dropped in 2019.
SeattleUnited States20172030Diesel, petrolAll vehicles, electric buses by 2025
StockholmSweden20172020–2022Diesel, petrolEuro I–IV vehicles (2020), Euro V vehicles (2022) on one street[155]
StuttgartGermany20182019–2020DieselEuro I–IV diesel vehicles (2019),[156] Euro V diesel vehicles (2020).
The HagueNetherlands20192030[157] Diesel, petrolTwo-stroke mopeds (2020), Euro I–III diesel vehicles (2021), all vehicles (2030).
UtrechtNetherlands2013,[158] 2020[159] 2030Diesel, petrolPre-2001 diesel vehicles from 2015, pre-2004 diesels from 2021, pre-2009 (Euro I–IV) diesels from 2025, all vehicles from 2030.
VancouverCanada20172030Diesel, petrolAll vehicles, electric buses by 2025
VermontUnited States20222035Non-electric vehiclesNew vehicle sales
WashingtonUnited States20212030EmittingNew car sales (2025), new truck sales (2030)
WiesbadenGermany20182019Diesel, petrolEuro I–III diesel vehicles and Euro 0 petrol vehicles (2019).

Manufacturer fossil-fuel phase-out plans

See also: List of manufacturers by motor vehicle production. In 2017, Volvo announced plans to phase out internal combustion-only vehicle production by 2019, after which all new cars manufactured by Volvo will either be fully electric or electric hybrids.[160] In 2020, the Volvo Group with other truck makers including DAF Trucks, Daimler AG, Ford, Iveco, MAN SE, and Scania AB pledged to end diesel truck sales by 2040.[161]

In 2018, Volkswagen Group's strategy chief said "the year 2026 will be the last product start on a combustion engine platform" for its core brand, Volkswagen.[162]

In 2021, General Motors announced plans to go fully electric by 2035.[163] In the same year, the CEO of Jaguar Land Rover, Thierry Bolloré also claimed it would "achieve zero tailpipe emissions by 2036" and that its Jaguar brand would be electric-only by 2025.[164] By March, Volvo Cars announced that by 2030 it "intends to only sell fully electric cars and phase out any car in its global portfolio with an internal combustion engine, including hybrids".[165] In April 2021, Honda announced that it will stop selling gas-powered vehicles by 2040.[166] In July 2021, Mercedes-Benz announced that its new vehicle platforms will be EV-only by 2025.[167] In Oct 2021, Rolls-Royce announced that it will be fully electric by 2030.[168] In November 2021, at 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference, car manufacturers including BYD Auto, Ford Motor Company, General Motors, Jaguar, Land Rover, Mercedes-Benz and Volvo have committed to "work towards all sales of new cars and vans being zero emission globally by 2040, and by no later than 2035 in leading markets".[169] [170]

In 2022, Maserati announced its plans to offer full-electric variants of all its models by 2025 and its intention to halt production of combustion engine vehicles by 2030.[171]

In 2023, Nissan announced the commitment to end combustion engine vehicle sales in Europe by 2030.[172]

The following table shows manufacturer pledges of the top global automaker corporations.

Manufacturer Vehicles 2023[173] Country Pledge Details[174]
1.Toyota10,307,395JapanNo pledgeExpects to make 3.5m EVs per year by 2030
2.Volkswagen9,239,575Germany2040Pledged to make 25% EVs by 2025. Expects to make 50% EVs by 2030 and 100% by 2040
3.Hyundai Kia7,302,451South KoreaNo pledgePlans to be one of top-three EV manufacturers by 2030. Genesis will become 100% all-electric by 2030.
4.Stellantis6,392,600Euro-American2030, Europe onlyFormerly Fiat-Chrysler. Plan for 100% EV in Europe by 2030, and 50% in the US by 2030[175]
5.General Motors6,188,476USA2035Cadillac and Buick to become 100% all-electric by 2030. Chevrolet and GMC to become 100% all-electric by 2035.
6.Ford4,413,545USANo pledge50% of Ford vehicle sales will be electric by 2030, and 100% of all Lincoln vehicle sales along with 100% of all Ford Europe sales will be electric by 2030.
7.Honda4,188,039Japan2040Plan for 40% sales to be EVs by 2030, and 100% by 2040. This rolls back previous suggestion of going all-electric by 2030.[176]
8.Nissan3,374,271JapanNo pledgePlan for 40% of US Nissan sales and 100% of Infiniti sales to be electric by 2030. Plan for 100% of European sales to be electric by 2030.
9.BMW2,555,341GermanyNo pledge.Mini all electric by 2030. BMW 50% electric by 2030.
10.Changan2,553,052China2025, partlyChangan pledges are for all electric vehicles, however, many remain hybrid
11.Mercedes2,493,177Germany2030, with exceptionsDespite its 2030 pledge, Mercedes says it may sell fossil fuel vehicles in markets that need it.
12.Renault2,235,345France2030100% electric by 2030, and aim for 100% clean energy production by 2040.[177]
13.Maruti Suzuki2,066,219JapanNo pledgeOnly launching first electric car in 2025.[178]
14.Tesla, Inc.1,808,581USA100% alreadyTesla is an entirely electric carmaker
15.Geely1,686,516China2030Pledge for Volvo to be all electric by 2030.[179] Aim for 50% sales in 2023 to be electric.[180]

Electric vehicle market shares by country

The sale of 5% electric vehicles is commonly regarded as a "tipping point" at which sales are likely to continually increase on a standard "S curve" pattern. At the end of 2023, 31 countries (including most EU countries, China and the US) had reached well over 5% of the market as electric, 15 countries were over 20%, and two were over 50%. However, Japan, India, Brazil, Mexico and Indonesia, which are among the 15 largest car markets, notably had not reached 5%.

Country EV sales in Q4 2023[181] Market share When 5% reached
1.Norway25,02879.6%2013 Q3
2.Iceland3,50758.4%2019 Q1
3.Denmark21,89044.9%2020 Q3
4.Sweden31,78039.8%2020 Q1
5.Finland6,68635.3%2020 Q4
6.Netherlands29,19935.1%2018 Q4
7.Ireland1,16433.9%2019 Q4
8.Belgium25,75225.3%2021 Q3
9.Portugal11,26524.3%2020 Q4
10.Switzerland16,58123.9%2020 Q1
11.China1,879,60023.8%2020 Q4
12.Austria13,08323.3%2020 Q3
13.Israel6,77222.9%2021 Q3
14.France98,75520.3%2020 Q1
15.New Zealand7,43520.0%2021 Q3
16.Germany138,39019.6%2020 Q3
17.UK79,60217.6%2020 Q2
18.Thailand23,86412.6%2023 Q1
19.Turkey36,02612.0%2023 Q3
20.Romania3,65510.8%2021 Q4
21.Slovenia1,12610.7%2022 Q4
22.Australia21,5719.5%2022 Q3
23.Canada38,1609.4%2022 Q1
24.Spain20,6668.7%2022 Q4
25.US313,8228.1%2021 Q4
26.Estonia4007.5%2023 Q2
27.South Korea36,0096.9%2021 Q3
28.Hungary1,6146.5%2022 Q4
29.Bulgaria5515.8%2023 Q4
30.Italy21,0335.4%2023 Q4
31.Greece1,5795.3%2023 Q2
Global total 3,008,66214.52021 Q2

Railways

See main article: List of countries by railway electrification.

Shipping

See also: MARPOL 73/78, Environmental effects of shipping, Regulation of ship pollution in the United States, Cruise ship pollution in the United States and Cruise ship pollution in Europe. Emissions will be banned from Norway's World Heritage Sites Geirangerfjord and Nærøyfjord from 2026.[193]

Besides boats driven by batteries or indeed trolley boats, there have been several attempts to adapt nuclear marine propulsion which has been a part of the military naval forces of many countries for decades in the form of nuclear submarines, nuclear aircraft carriers and nuclear icebreakers to civilian uses. While prototypes like Otto Hahn (ship) (German) NS Savannah (American) and RV Mirai (Japan) were built, the only non-icebreaker nuclear powered ship to remain in civilian service is the Russian Sevmorput built in the late 1980s by the Soviet Union. The Soviet Union and its successor state Russia also maintains a fleet of nuclear icebreakers to keep the Northern Sea Route open.

Sail ships and oars rely on renewable resources rather than fossil fuels (wind and human muscle-power respectively) but have disadvantages in terms of speed and labour-costs and have thus been phased out of virtually all commercial uses. There are some attempts to use wind-powered ships for commercial purposes, but as of 2022 they have remained marginal.[194] [195] [196]

Aviation

Norway, and possibly some other Scandinavian countries, are aiming for all domestic flights to be emission-free by 2040.[197] [198] A major obstacle to decarbonising air travel is the low energy density of current and foreseeable battery technology.[199] [200] Thus alternatives to electric planes such as so called sustainable aviation fuels[201] or e-fuels (fuels derived from electrochemical conversion of substances like water and carbon dioxide into hydrocarbons) are also proposed as a future replacement of current jet fuels.[202] [203] [204] In 2021 the first production scale plant for e-fuels to be used in aviation opened in northern Germany. Production capacity is planned to reach 8 barrels a day by 2022.[205] Lufthansa will be among the chief users of the synthetic fuel produced in the new facility.[206] Germany's plan to transform aviation to net zero carbon emissions relies heavily on e-fuels.[207]

Besides the need to rapidly scale up currently minuscule production capacity, the main obstacles to wider deployment of sustainable aviation fuels and e-Fuels are their much higher cost in the absence of meaningful carbon pricing in aviation.[208] Furthermore, with current CORSIA regulations for sustainable aviation fuels allowing up to 90% of emissions compared to conventional fuels, even those options are currently far from carbon neutral.[209]

There were attempts at building nuclear-powered aircraft during the Cold War, which unlike nuclear marine propulsion never got very far and were always only proposed for military uses. As of 2022 no country or private enterprise is seriously pursuing nuclear propulsion for passenger aircraft.

However, short haul, low demand routes can be easily flown using electric aircraft, and manufacturers such as Heart Aerospace are planning to introduce them with United Airlines in 2026.

Unintended side-effects

Second-hand vehicle dumping

See main article: Used car. From the European Union, there is already an export market which includes millions of used cars which are sent to Eastern Europe and the Caucasus, Central Asia and Africa.[210] [211] According to UNECE, the global on-road vehicle fleet is to double by 2050 (from 1.2 billion to 2.5 billion,[212] see introduction), with most future car purchases taking place in developing countries. Some experts predict that the number of vehicles in developing countries will increase by 4 or 5-fold by 2050 (compared to current car use levels), and that the majority of these will be second-hand.[213] There are currently no global or even regional agreements that rationalise and govern the flow of second-hand vehicles.[214] Others say that new electric 2-wheelers may sell widely in developing countries as they are affordable.[215]

Internal combustion engine cars that may no longer comply to local environmental standards are exported to developing countries, where legislation on vehicle emissions is often less strict. In addition, in some developing countries, such as Uganda, the average age of a car imported is already 16.5 years and it will likely be driven for another 20 years. In such cases, fuel efficiency levels of these vehicles become worse as they age.[216] In addition, national vehicle inspection requirements vary widely depending on the country.

Potential solutions

Mobility transition

See main article: article and Mobility transition. In Germany, activists have coined the term Verkehrswende (mobility transition, analogous to "Energiewende", energy transition) for a project of not only changing the motive power of cars (from fossil fuels to renewable power sources) but the entire mobility system to one of walkability, complete streets, public transit, electrified railways and bicycle infrastructure.

There is similar research being done in the United States around the term mobility justice.[224] Geologist Dr. Jason Henderson of University of California, San Francisco argues that supporting electric vehicles while neglecting compact city design and public transportation will lead to car-oriented city design.[225] This comes with numerous sustainability issues that disproportionately affect disadvantaged communities such as environmental gentrification, less low-income housing, and unequal access to the benefits of electric vehicle adoption. In addition, the production of electric vehicles can come at the price of laborers in other countries, and the environmental costs there are seldom taken into account when calculating the environmental benefits of electric vehicles. According to mobility justice critiques, relying primarily on electric vehicles for the phase out of fossil fuels comes at an opportunity cost of investing in other types of sustainable transportation such as bike lanes, safe walking spaces, electric trains, and electric buses.

See also

Notes and References

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