Next Ukrainian parliamentary election explained

Country:Ukraine
Type:parliamentary
Ongoing:yes
Previous Election:2019 Ukrainian parliamentary election
Previous Year:2019
Election Date:Date not announced
Seats For Election:All 450 (possibly 300) seats in the Verkhovna Rada
Majority Seats:226 (possibly 151)
Opinion Polls:Opinion polling for the next Ukrainian parliamentary election
Outgoing Members:List of members of the parliament of Ukraine, 2019–
Leader1:Olena Shuliak
Party1:Servant of the People
Leader Since1:15 November 2021
Last Election1:254 seats, 43.16%
Seats Before1:235
Leader2:Petro Poroshenko
Party2:European Solidarity
Leader Since2:31 May 2019
Last Election2:25 seats, 8.11%
Seats Before2:27
Leader3:Yulia Tymoshenko
Party3:Batkivshchyna
Leader Since3:9 July 1999
Last Election3:26 seats, 8.19%
Seats Before3:24
Leader4:Yuriy Boyko
Party4:Platform for Life and Peace
Leader Since4:21 April 2022
Last Election4:43 seats, 13.06%
Seats Before4:22
Leader5:Kira Rudik
Party5:Holos (political party)
Leader Since5:12 March 2020
Last Election5:20 seats, 5.83%
Seats Before5:20
Leader6:Oleh Kulinich
Party6:Dovira
Leader Since6:6 December 2019
Last Election6:New
Seats Before6:19
Leader7:Ihor Palytsia
Party7:For the Future
Leader Since7:20 May 2020
Last Election7:New
Seats Before7:17
Party8:Restoration of Ukraine
Leader Since8:8 December 2023
Last Election8:New
Seats Before8:16
Popular Vote8:9
Prime Minister
Before Election:Denys Shmyhal
Before Party:Independent politician

Parliamentary elections are expected to take place in Ukraine to elect members of the Verkhovna Rada after the end of the Russo-Ukrainian War.[1] According to the Ukrainian electoral code,[2] the electoral process should start within a month from the cancellation of the state of martial law that was introduced in 2022 following the Russian invasion. The previous parliamentary election in Ukraine was held on 21 July 2019.[3]

Background

The previous parliamentary elections in 2019 were snap ones, called in July instead of the regular constitutionally-prescribed late October date. The first meeting of the elected deputies took place on 29 August 2019.[4] According to Article 77 of the Constitution, regular elections to the Verkhovna Rada (the parliament of Ukraine) take place on the last Sunday of October of the fifth year of parliamentary powers. Thus, if not for the war, the regular parliamentary elections would have taken place on 29 October 2023.[5] [6]

In 2021, there were rumors that President Volodymyr Zelenskyy would call for snap elections in 2021, but also that he could use a provision to "collide" parliament's term with the 2024 Ukrainian presidential election.[7]

Postponement

Elections are not allowed under martial law in Ukraine.[8] Article 10 of Ukraine's "On the Legal Regime of Martial Law", adopted in 2015, stipulates that the powers of the president, parliament, and Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine cannot be terminated under martial law,[9] while Article 19 bans presidential, parliamentary, and local elections;[10] [11] Article 19 of the previous version of the law adopted in 2000 included the same provision.[12] Martial law in Ukraine has been in effect since 24 February 2022, in response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.[13]

According to Article 83 of the Constitution, if the five-year authority of the Verkhovna Rada expires while martial law is in effect, its authority is extended until the first meeting of the next convocation of the Verkhovna Rada elected after the end of martial law.[14] Electoral rights are not listed in Article 64 of the Constitution among the rights and freedoms that cannot be withheld in the state of martial law.[14]

A survey conducted by the Razumkov Centre in September 2023 showed that only 15% of those surveyed supported holding elections during wartime, while 64% were against.[15] Similarly, a September 2023 survey conducted by Rating for the International Republican Institute, 62% replied that considering the war, if a decision about the necessity of elections is to be made, the elections should begin to be held only after the war, even if this means waiting even longer [than March 2025].[16] A poll released by KIIS in November 2023 reported that 81% of Ukrainians did not want presidential or parliamentary elections until the war was over.[17]

On 22 June 2023, President Zelenskyy announced that the elections would not be held as scheduled in 2023 due to ongoing martial law, and would be held in 2024 only if martial law ended by then.[18] On 17 August 2023, martial law was extended for a further 90 days until 15 November 2023, which means the election could not take place on 29 October 2023 as originally planned.[19] In November 2023, all political parties represented in the Verkhovna Rada signed a memorandum in which they agreed to postpone holding elections until after martial law has ended.[20]

Electoral system

On 1 January 2020 the latest revision of the electoral code of Ukraine took effect. It states that all deputies are elected on a party list in one nationwide constituency with a 5% election threshold with open regional lists of candidates for deputies.[21] The new election law abolishes the single-member constituency system used since the 2012 parliamentary election. Under the previous system, the 450 members of the Verkhovna Rada were elected by two methods; 225 by closed list proportional representation in a nationwide constituency with a 5% threshold, and 225 in single-member constituencies by first-past-the-post voting.[22]

On 4 February 2020, the parliament approved in the first reading (with 236 votes) a presidential bill to reduce the number of parliamentary deputies from 450 to 300. To do so, the Ukrainian Constitution needs to be altered, and this will require at least 300 parliamentary votes.[23]

Parties

The table below lists parties currently represented in the Verkhovna Rada.[24]

PartiesLeader(s)Parliamentary
leader(s)
IdeologyPositionSeats
Last electionBefore election
Servant of the PeopleOlena ShuliakDavyd ArakhamiaCentrismCentre
European SolidarityPetro PoroshenkoIryna Herashchenko
Artur Herasymov
Liberal conservatism
BatkivshchynaYulia TymoshenkoConservatism
Platform for Life and PeaceYuriy BoykoSocial democracy[25] Centre-leftDid not exist
HolosKira RudykOleksandra UstinovaLiberalism
DoviraOlena KyivetsOleh KulinichRegionalismCentreDid not exist
For the FutureIhor PalytsiaTaras BatenkoPopulismCentre-rightDid not exist
Restoration of UkraineAntonina SlavytskaDid not exist

Suspended parties

Martial law in Ukraine was declared on 24 February 2022. On 15 March 2022, the Verkhovna Rada deprived opposition MP Illia Kyva of his mandate.[26]

On 20 March 2022, the activities of several political parties were suspended by the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine for the period of martial law:[27] [28]

Opinion polls

See main article: Opinion polling for the next Ukrainian parliamentary election.

See also

External links

Notes and References

  1. News: Deprez . Fabrice . 2023-10-04 . Ukraine Is Already Working on Its Next Election. The challenges of holding a vote in wartime are both small and big—and often unexpected.. en-US . .
  2. https://zakon.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/396-20 Electoral Code of Ukraine
  3. https://www.rferl.org/a/final-ukraine-election-results-confirm-zelenskiy-landslide/30076731.html Final Ukraine Election Results Confirm Zelenskiy Landslide
  4. https://www.rada.gov.ua/en/news/top_news/179739.html Rada’s solemn sitting takes place at VRU’s premises
  5. Web site: ‘Grenade among birthday gifts’ kills adviser to Ukraine’s military chief. 7 November 2023. 7 November 2023. The Guardian.
  6. Web site: Конституція України . 2023-11-20 . Офіційний вебпортал парламенту України . uk.
  7. News: 2 Aug 2021 . Перевибори цієї осені чи проблема-2023? До чого готується Зеленський та опозиція . . uk.
  8. News: No elections can be held in Ukraine while martial law in effect – National Security and Defence Council. Ukrainska Pravda. 16 May 2023. 16 May 2023. English.
  9. Web site: 2024-02-26 . Five years of Zelenskyyʼs presidency will expire in May 2024. Some analysts and enemies say he will lose legitimacy. Itʼs true? — No, this is an unconstitutional delusion. Babelʼs legal and anti-fake analysis . 2024-10-30 . babel.ua . en.
  10. Web site: Reaney . Lee . Wasserman . Joel . 2023-07-11 . Wartime Elections in Ukraine Are Impossible . https://archive.today/20231114102732/https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/07/11/ukraine-democracy-wartime-elections-russia-zelensky/ . 2023-11-14 . 2024-10-30 . Foreign Policy . en-US.
  11. Web site: 2015-05-12. uk:Закон України "Про правовий режим воєнного стану". Law of Ukraine "On the legal status of martial law". https://zakon.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/389-19. 2024-10-31. Verkhovna Rada. uk.
  12. Web site: 2000-04-06 . Закон України "Про правовий режим воєнного стану" . Law of Ukraine "On the legal status of martial law" (void law, 2000) . 2024-10-31 . . uk.
  13. News: Parliament extends martial law, general mobilization in Ukraine for another 90 days. Ukrinform. May 2, 2023. May 16, 2023.
  14. https://rm.coe.int/constitution-of-ukraine/168071f58b Constitution of Ukraine
  15. Web site: Центр . Разумков . Оцінка громадянами ситуації в країні. Довіра до соціальних інститутів, політиків, посадовців та громадських діячів. Ставлення до проведення загальнонаціональних виборів в Україні до завершення війни (вересень 2023р.) . 2023-10-18 . razumkov.org.ua . uk-ua.
  16. Web site: National Survey of Ukraine, September 2023. 2023-10-28 . iri.org.
  17. Web site: Press releases and reports - When elections should be held, attitudes towards online voting and attitudes towards possible restrictions on citizens' rights: results of a telephone survey conducted on September 30-October 11, 2023 . 2024-10-30 . Kyiv International Institute of Sociology.
  18. Web site: Ukraine to hold elections after war ends, says Zelenskyy . live . https://web.archive.org/web/20230629020056/https://english.nv.ua/nation/ukraine-to-hold-elections-after-war-ends-says-zelenskyy-50333899.html . english.nv.ua . The New Voice of Ukraine . 22 June 2023 . 13 July 2023 . 29 June 2023.
  19. News: Stern . David L. . Ebel . Francesca . 2023-08-17 . Zelensky extends martial law, casting doubt on fall parliamentary elections . en-US . Washington Post . 2023-08-21 . 0190-8286.
  20. Web site: Ukraine's political parties agree on carrying out elections only after the war. 30 November 2023. 30 November 2023. Ukrainska Pravda.
  21. https://en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/633561.html Electoral Code becomes effective in Ukraine
  22. http://www.electionguide.org/elections/id/3163/ Ukraine
  23. The Verkhovna Rada has previously approved the reduction of the number of people's deputies to 300 and the transition to a proportional electoral system, Interfax-Ukraine (4 February 2020)
  24. Web site: Офіційний портал Верховної Ради України . 2023-11-20 . w1.c1.rada.gov.ua.
  25. Web site: Підтримують Зеленського і курс на ЄС та планують ребрендинг: як живе ОПЗЖ після розколу і заборони? . 2023-09-02 . www.radiosvoboda.org.
  26. News: Kyva is no longer a People's Deputy. 15 March 2022 . . 15 March 2022 . uk.
  27. Web site: NSDC bans pro-Russian parties in Ukraine . Ukrinform . 20 March 2022 . March 20, 2022.
  28. Web site: As it happened: Ukraine war latest: Resilience making Russia assess reality, negotiator says.