Next Spanish general election explained

Election Name:Next Spanish general election
Country:Spain
Type:parliamentary
Ongoing:yes
Previous Election:2023 Spanish general election
Previous Year:2023
Outgoing Members:15th Cortes Generales
Seats For Election:All 350 seats in the Congress of Deputies and 208 (of 266) seats in the Senate
176 seats needed for a majority in the Congress of Deputies
Opinion Polls:Opinion polling for the next Spanish general election
Election Date:No later than 22 August 2027
Leader1:Alberto Núñez Feijóo
Party1:People's Party (Spain)
Leader Since1:2 April 2022
Leaders Seat1:Madrid
Last Election1:137 seats, 33.1%
Seats Before1:137
Seats Needed1:39
Leader2:Pedro Sánchez
Party2:Spanish Socialist Workers' Party
Leader Since2:18 June 2017
Leaders Seat2:Madrid
Last Election2:121 seats, 31.7%
Seats Before2:120
Seats Needed2:56
Leader3:Santiago Abascal
Party3:Vox (political party)
Leader Since3:20 September 2014
Leaders Seat3:Madrid
Last Election3:33 seats, 12.4%
Seats Before3:33
Seats Needed3:143
Leader4:TBD
Party4:Sumar (electoral platform)
Leader Since4:TBD
Leaders Seat4:TBD
Last Election4:31 seats, 12.3%
Seats Before4:27
Seats Needed4:149
Leader5:Gabriel Rufián
Party5:Republican Left of Catalonia
Leader Since5:14 October 2019
Leaders Seat5:Barcelona
Last Election5:7 seats, 1.9%
Seats Before5:7
Seats Needed5:N/A
Leader6:Míriam Nogueras
Party6:Junts
Leader Since6:12 March 2021
Leaders Seat6:Barcelona
Last Election6:7 seats, 1.6%
Seats Before6:7
Seats Needed6:N/A
Map Size:x315px
Prime Minister
Posttitle:Prime Minister after election
Before Election:Pedro Sánchez
Before Party:Spanish Socialist Workers' Party

The next Spanish general election will be held no later than Sunday, 22 August 2027, to elect the 16th Cortes Generales of the Kingdom of Spain. All 350 seats in the Congress of Deputies will be up for election, as well as 208 of 265 seats in the Senate.

The inconclusive result of the 2023 election raised the possibility of a snap election being held by late 2023 or early 2024. However, an agreement was ultimately reached between the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) and Together for Catalonia (Junts) to support the re-election of incumbent Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez in exchange of a controversial amnesty law for Catalan politicians convicted or investigated for events related to the 2017–2018 Spanish constitutional crisis and the 2019–2020 Catalan protests.[1] [2] Sánchez's investiture was materialized on 16 November 2023, allowing him to form his third cabinet.[3]

Overview

Electoral system

The Spanish Cortes Generales are envisaged as an imperfect bicameral system. The Congress of Deputies has greater legislative power than the Senate, having the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a prime minister and to override Senate vetoes by an absolute majority of votes. Nonetheless, the Senate possesses a few exclusive (yet limited in number) functions—such as its role in constitutional amendment—which are not subject to the Congress' override.[4] [5] Voting for the Cortes Generales is on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprises all nationals over 18 years of age and in full enjoyment of their political rights.[6]

For the Congress of Deputies, 348 seats are elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with an electoral threshold of three percent of valid votes—which includes blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Seats are allocated to constituencies, corresponding to the provinces of Spain, with each being allocated an initial minimum of two seats and the remaining 248 being distributed in proportion to their populations. Ceuta and Melilla are allocated the two remaining seats, which are elected using plurality voting.[7] [8] The use of the electoral method may result in an effective threshold based on the district magnitude and the distribution of votes among candidacies.[9]

As a result of the aforementioned allocation, each Congress multi-member constituency would be entitled the following seats (as of 23 December 2023):

SeatsConstituencies
38Madrid
32Barcelona
16Valencia
12Alicante, Seville
11Málaga
10Murcia
8A Coruña, Balearic Islands, Biscay, Cádiz, Las Palmas
7Asturias, Granada, Pontevedra, Zaragoza, Santa Cruz de Tenerife
6Almería, Córdoba, Gipuzkoa, Girona, Tarragona, Toledo
5Badajoz, Cantabria, Castellón, Ciudad Real, Huelva, Jaén, Navarre, Valladolid
4Álava, Albacete, Burgos, Cáceres, La Rioja, León, Lleida, Lugo, Ourense, Salamanca
3Ávila, Cuenca, Guadalajara, Huesca, Palencia, Segovia, Teruel, Zamora
2Soria

For the Senate, 208 seats are elected using an open list partial block voting system, with electors voting for individual candidates instead of parties. In constituencies electing four seats, electors can vote for up to three candidates; in those with two or three seats, for up to two candidates; and for one candidate in single-member districts. Each of the 47 peninsular provinces is allocated four seats, whereas for insular provinces, such as the Balearic and Canary Islands, districts are the islands themselves, with the larger—Majorca, Gran Canaria and Tenerife—being allocated three seats each, and the smaller—Menorca, IbizaFormentera, Fuerteventura, La Gomera, El Hierro, Lanzarote and La Palma—one each. Ceuta and Melilla elect two seats each. Additionally, autonomous communities can appoint at least one senator each and are entitled to one additional senator per each million inhabitants.[10] [11]

Election date

The term of each chamber of the Cortes Generales—the Congress and the Senate—expires four years from the date of their previous election, unless they are dissolved earlier. The election decree shall be issued no later than the twenty-fifth day prior to the date of expiry of parliament and published on the following day in the Official State Gazette (BOE), with election day taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication.[12] The previous election was held on 23 July 2023, which means that the legislature's term will expire on 23 July 2027. The election decree must be published in the BOE no later than 29 June 2027, with the election taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication, setting the latest possible election date for the Cortes Generales on Sunday, 22 August 2027.

The prime minister has the prerogative to dissolve both chambers at any given time—either jointly or separately—and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence is in process, no state of emergency is in force and that dissolution does not occur before one year has elapsed since the previous one. Additionally, both chambers are to be dissolved and a new election called if an investiture process fails to elect a prime minister within a two-month period from the first ballot.[13] Barred this exception, there is no constitutional requirement for simultaneous elections for the Congress and the Senate. Still, as of there has been no precedent of separate elections taking place under the 1978 Constitution.

Parliamentary composition

The tables below show the composition of the parliamentary groups in both chambers.[14] [15]

Current parliamentary composition[16]
Congress of Deputies
GroupsPartiesDeputies
SeatsTotal
People's Parliamentary Group in the CongressPP137137
Socialist Parliamentary GroupPSOE101120
PSC19
Vox Parliamentary GroupVox3333
Unite Plurinational Parliamentary GroupSMR1127
CatComú6
IU5
Compromís2
MM1
CHA1
Més1
Republican Parliamentary GroupERC77
Together for Catalonia Parliamentary GroupJxCat77
EH Bildu Parliamentary GroupEH Bildu66
Basque Parliamentary Group (EAJ/PNV)EAJ/PNV55
Mixed Parliamentary GroupPodemos48
BNG1
CCa1
UPN1
INDEP1
Current parliamentary composition[17]
Senate
GroupsPartiesSenators
SeatsTotal
People's Parliamentary Group in the SenatePP144144
Socialist Parliamentary GroupPSOE7489
PSC15
Left for Independence
(Republican Left–EH Bildu)
Parliamentary Group
ERC611
EH Bildu5
Plural Parliamentary Group
in the Senate (JxCat–CCa–AHI–BNG)
JxCat36
CCa1
AHI1
BNG1
Basque Parliamentary Group
in the Senate (EAJ/PNV)
EAJ/PNV56
PSOE1
Confederal Left Parliamentary Group
(More Madrid, Ibiza and Formentera in the Senate,
Commitment and Gomera Socialist Group)
MM16
EiFS1
Compromís1
ASG1
GBai1
PSOE1
Mixed Parliamentary GroupVox34
UPN1

Parties and candidates

The electoral law allows for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election are required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors need to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they seek election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates. Concurrently, parties, federations or coalitions that have not obtained a mandate in either chamber of the Cortes at the preceding election are required to secure the signature of at least 0.1 percent of electors in the aforementioned constituencies.[18] The electoral law provides for a special, simplified process for election re-runs, including a shortening of deadlines, electoral campaigning, the lifting of signature requirements if these had been already met for the immediately previous election and the possibility of maintaining lists and coalitions without needing to go through pre-election procedures again.[19]

Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which will likely contest the election:

CandidacyParties and
alliances
Leading candidateIdeologyPrevious result
Votes (%)
PPAlberto Núñez FeijóoConservatism
Christian democracy
33.06%
PSOEPedro SánchezSocial democracy31.68%
VoxSantiago AbascalRight-wing populism
Ultranationalism
National conservatism
12.38%
SumarTBDProgressivism
Left-wing populism
Green politics
12.33%[20]
PodemosIone BelarraLeft-wing populism
Democratic socialism
[21]
ERCGabriel RufiánCatalan independence
Left-wing nationalism
Social democracy
1.89%
JuntsMíriam NoguerasCatalan independence
Sovereigntism
Populism
1.60%
EH BilduMertxe AizpuruaBasque independence
Abertzale left
Socialism
1.36%
EAJ/PNVAitor EstebanBasque nationalism
Christian democracy
Social democracy
1.12%
BNGNéstor RegoGalician nationalism
Left-wing nationalism
Socialism
0.62%
CCaCristina ValidoRegionalism
Canarian nationalism
Centrism
0.47%
UPNAlberto CatalánRegionalism
Conservatism
Christian democracy
0.21%
ERC–
EH Bildu
Mirella Cortès GèsLeft-wing nationalism
ASGFabián ChineaInsularism
Social democracy
EFSJuanjo FerrerProgressivism
AHIJavier ArmasInsularism
Canarian nationalism
Centrism

Opinion polls

See main article: Opinion polling for the next Spanish general election.

Bibliography

Notes and References

  1. News: 24 July 2023 . Spanish elections: Uncertainty hangs over future government . Euronews . 24 July 2023.
  2. News: Pérez . Miriam . 23 July 2023 . El escenario que no se puede descartar: un bloqueo tras el 23J y una repetición electoral para enero de 2024 . es . Business Insider . 29 July 2023.
  3. News: Monrosi . José Enrique . Ortiz . Alberto . 16 November 2023 . Pedro Sánchez es investido presidente del Gobierno con más apoyos que en 2020 . es . elDiario.es . 16 November 2023.
  4. .
  5. Web site: Sinopsis artículo 66 . Constitución española . . es . 12 September 2020 .,. summarizing .
  6. .
  7. .
  8. .
  9. Web site: Gallagher . Michael . 30 July 2012 . Effective threshold in electoral systems . Trinity College, Dublin . https://web.archive.org/web/20170730092518/http://www.tcd.ie/Political_Science/staff/michael_gallagher/ElSystems/Docts/effthresh.php . 22 July 2017 . 30 July 2017.
  10. .
  11. .
  12. .
  13. .
  14. Web site: Grupos Parlamentarios en el Congreso de los Diputados y el Senado . es . Historia Electoral.com . 29 October 2022.
  15. Web site: Composición del Senado 1977- . es . Historia Electoral.com . 29 October 2022.
  16. Web site: Grupos parlamentarios . es . . 30 August 2023.
  17. Web site: Grupos Parlamentarios desde 1977 . es . . 8 July 2020.
  18. .
  19. .
  20. News: 10 June 2024 . Yolanda Díaz dimite como líder de Sumar tras los resultados de las europeas . es . elDiario.es . 11 June 2024.
  21. News: 5 December 2023 . Los cinco diputados de Podemos abandonan el grupo parlamentario de Sumar y se unen al grupo mixto . es . Cadena SER . 5 December 2023.