| Election Name: | Next Portuguese legislative election |
| Country: | Portugal |
| Type: | parliamentary |
| Ongoing: | yes |
| Previous Election: | 2024 Portuguese legislative election |
| Previous Year: | 2024 |
| Seats For Election: | 230 seats in the Assembly of the Republic |
| Majority Seats: | 116 |
| Election Date: | On or before 8 October 2028 |
| Opinion Polls: | Opinion polling for the next Portuguese legislative election |
| Leader1: | Luís Montenegro |
| Party1: | Social Democratic Party (Portugal) |
| Alliance1: | Democratic Alliance (Portugal, 2024) |
| Leader Since1: | 28 May 2022 |
| Leaders Seat1: | Lisbon |
| Last Election1: | 80 seats, 28.8% |
| Seats Needed1: | 36 |
| Leader2: | Pedro Nuno Santos |
| Party2: | Socialist Party (Portugal) |
| Leader Since2: | 16 December 2023 |
| Leaders Seat2: | Aveiro |
| Last Election2: | 78 seats, 28.0% |
| Seats Needed2: | 38 |
| Colour3: | 202056 |
| Leader3: | André Ventura |
| Party3: | CH |
| Leader Since3: | 9 April 2019 |
| Leaders Seat3: | Lisbon |
| Last Election3: | 50 seats, 18.1% |
| Seats Needed3: | 66 |
| Colour4: | 00ADEF |
| Leader4: | Rui Rocha |
| Party4: | IL |
| Leader Since4: | 22 January 2023 |
| Leaders Seat4: | Braga |
| Last Election4: | 8 seats, 4.9% |
| Seats Needed4: | 108 |
| Leader5: | Mariana Mortágua |
| Party5: | Left Bloc (Portugal) |
| Leader Since5: | 28 May 2023 |
| Leaders Seat5: | Lisbon |
| Last Election5: | 5 seats, 4.4% |
| Seats Needed5: | 111 |
| Colour6: | FF0000 |
| Leader6: | Paulo Raimundo |
| Party6: | PCP |
| Alliance6: | CDU |
| Leader Since6: | 12 November 2022 |
| Leaders Seat6: | Lisbon |
| Last Election6: | 4 seats, 3.2% |
| Seats Needed6: | 112 |
| Party7: | LIVRE |
| Leader Since7: | 12 May 2024 |
| Leaders Seat7: | Lisbon |
| Last Election7: | 4 seats, 3.2% |
| Seats Needed7: | 112 |
| Colour8: | 008080 |
| Leader8: | Inês Sousa Real |
| Party8: | PAN |
| Leader Since8: | 6 June 2021 |
| Leaders Seat8: | Lisbon |
| Last Election8: | 1 seat, 2.0% |
| Seats Needed8: | 115 |
| Prime Minister | |
| Posttitle: | Prime Minister after election |
| Before Election: | Luís Montenegro |
| Before Party: | Social Democratic Party (Portugal) |
| Previous Mps: | 16th Legislature of the Third Portuguese Republic |
The next legislative election in Portugal will take place on or before 8 October 2028 to elect members of the Assembly of the Republic to the 17th Legislature. All 230 seats to the Assembly of the Republic will be at stake.
Due to the instability of the minority government led by Luís Montenegro, the likelihood of a snap election well before the scheduled end of the current Parliament in 2028 is considered to be very high.[1]
The Democratic Alliance (AD), composed by Social Democratic Party (PSD), CDS – People's Party (CDS–PP) and the People's Monarchist Party (PPM), led by PSD leader Luís Montenegro, won by a very narrow margin the 2024 legislative election with almost 29 percent of the votes and 80 seats in the 230 seat Assembly of the Republic. The Socialist Party (PS), in power between 2015 and 2024 and led by Pedro Nuno Santos, in the aftermath of the resignation of then Prime Minister António Costa due to an investigation around alleged corruption involving the award of contracts for lithium and hydrogen businesses,[2] suffered a big decrease in support winning 28 percent of the votes and 78 seats. The populist/far-right party Chega (CH) surged in the elections, gathering 18 percent of the votes and 50 seats in Parliament, the best result for third party in decades and becoming kingmaker.[3] The Liberal Initiative (IL) was able to hold on to their eight seats and gather five percent of the votes. The left-wing/far-left parties, the Portuguese Communist Party (PCP) and the Left Bloc (BE), achieved, again, disappointing results with BE holding on to their five seats and four percent of the votes, while the Communists' alliance got their worst result ever with just three percent of the votes and four seats. LIVRE nearly surpassed PCP by gathering also three percent of the votes and four seats. People Animals Nature (PAN) was able to win just one seat.[4]
Eleven days after election day, on 21 March 2024, Luis Montenegro was asked by President of the Republic Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa to form a government, a minority one in this case.[5] The new government was sworn into office on 2 April 2024.[5]
The President of Portugal has the power to dissolve the Assembly of the Republic by his/her own will. Unlike in other countries, the President can refuse to dissolve the parliament at the request of the Prime Minister or the Assembly of the Republic and all the parties represented in Parliament. If the Prime Minister resigns, the President can appoint a new Prime Minister after listening to all the parties represented in Parliament and then the government programme must be subject to discussion by the Assembly of the Republic, whose members of parliament may present a motion to reject the upcoming government, or dissolve Parliament and call new elections.
According to the Portuguese Constitution, an election must be called between 14 September and 14 October of the year that the legislature ends. The election is called by the President of Portugal but is not called at the request of the Prime Minister; however, the President must listen to all of the parties represented in Parliament and the election day must be announced at least 60 days before the election.[6] If an election is called during an ongoing legislature (dissolution of parliament) it must be held at least after 55 days. Election day is the same in all multi-seats constituencies, and should fall on a Sunday or national holiday. The next legislative election must, therefore, take place no later than 8 October 2028.[7]
On 8 April 2024, former 2021 Presidential candidate Tiago Mayan Gonçalves, announced a manifesto called "United by liberalism" and said he will be a candidate for the party's leadership when a ballot arrives, thus challenging incumbent leader Rui Rocha.[8] On 20 June 2024, Mayan Gonçalves officially launched his bid for the party's leadership.[9]
The Assembly of the Republic has 230 members elected to four-year terms. Governments do not require absolute majority support of the Assembly to hold office, as even if the number of opposers of government is larger than that of the supporters, the number of opposers still needs to be equal or greater than 116 (absolute majority) for both the Government's Programme to be rejected or for a motion of no confidence to be approved.[10]
The number of seats assigned to each constituency depends on the district magnitude.[11] The use of the d'Hondt method makes for a higher effective threshold than certain other allocation methods such as the Hare quota or Sainte-Laguë method, which are more generous to small parties.[12]
The distribution of MPs by constituency for the 2024 legislative election was the following:[13]
| Constituency | Number of MPs | Map |
|---|---|---|
| 48 | ||
| 40 | ||
| 19 | ||
| 16 | ||
| 10 | ||
| Coimbra, Faro and Santarém | 9 | |
| 8 | ||
| 6 | ||
| 5 | ||
| 4 | ||
| 3 | ||
| 2 |
| Name | Ideology | Political position | Leader | 2024 result | Status | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % | Seats | |||||||
| PPD/PSD | Social Democratic Party | Liberal conservatism | Centre-right | Luís Montenegro | 28.8% | rowspan="2" | ||
| CDS–PP | CDS – People's Party | Christian democracy Conservatism | Centre-right to right-wing | Nuno Melo | ||||
| PS | Socialist Party | Social democracy | Centre-left | Pedro Nuno Santos | 28.0% | rowspan="7" | ||
| CH | Enough! | National conservatism Right-wing populism | Right-wing to far-right | André Ventura | 18.1% | |||
| IL | Liberal Initiative | Classical liberalism Right-libertarianism | Centre-right to right-wing | Rui Rocha | 4.9% | |||
| BE | Left Bloc | Democratic socialism Left-wing populism | Left-wing to far-left | Mariana Mortágua | 4.4% | |||
| PCP | Portuguese Communist Party | Communism Marxism-Leninism | Left-wing to far-left | Paulo Raimundo | 3.2% | |||
| L | FREE | Green politics Pro-Europeanism | Centre-left to left-wing | Rui Tavares | 3.2% | |||
| PAN | People Animals Nature | Animal welfare Environmentalism | Centre-left | Inês Sousa Real | 2.0% | |||
See main article: article and Opinion polling for the next Portuguese legislative election.
| Polling aggregator | Last update | Lead | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Politico | 26 Jul 2024 | 29 | 29 | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 3 | Tie | |
| Europe Elects | 23 Jul 2024 | 29 | 29 | 15 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 3 | Tie | |
| Marktest | 17 Jul 2024 | 29.3 | 31.3 | 15.3 | 7.1 | 4.3 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 2.0 | |
| PolitPro | 14 Jul 2024 | 29.5 | 31.0 | 15.6 | 7.3 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 1.5 | |
| 2024 legislative election | 10 March 2024 | 28.8 | 28.0 | 18.1 | 4.9 | 4.4 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 0.8 | |