Next Dutch general election explained

Country:	Netherlands
Ongoing:	yes
Previous Election:	2023
Seats For Election:	All 150 seats in the House of Representatives
Majority Seats:	76
Election Date:	By 15 March 2028
Nopercentage:	yes
Leader1:	Geert Wilders
Party1:	Party for Freedom
Current Seats1:	37
Leader2:	Frans Timmermans
Party2:	GroenLinks–PvdA
Current Seats2:	25
Leader3:	Dilan Yeşilgöz
Party3:	People's Party for Freedom and Democracy
Current Seats3:	24
Leader4:	Pieter Omtzigt
Party4:	New Social Contract
Current Seats4:	20
Party5:	Democrats 66
Current Seats5:	9
Leader6:	Caroline van der Plas
Party6:	BBB
Current Seats6:	7
Leader7:	Henri Bontenbal
Party7:	Christian Democratic Appeal
Current Seats7:	5
Leader8:	Jimmy Dijk
Party8:	Socialist Party (Netherlands)
Current Seats8:	5
Leader9:	Stephan van Baarle
Party9:	Denk
Current Seats9:	3
Leader10:	Esther Ouwehand
Party10:	Party for the Animals
Current Seats10:	3
Leader11:	Thierry Baudet
Party11:	Forum for Democracy (Netherlands)
Current Seats11:	3
Leader12:	Chris Stoffer
Party12:	Reformed Political Party
Current Seats12:	3
Leader13:	Mirjam Bikker
Party13:	Christian Union (Netherlands)
Current Seats13:	3
Party14:	Volt Netherlands
Current Seats14:	2
Leader15:	Joost Eerdmans
Party15:	JA21
Current Seats15:	1
cabinet
Before Election:	Schoof cabinet
Before Party:	PVV–VVD–NSC–BBB

General elections are scheduled to be held in the Netherlands in March 2028 to elect members of the House of Representatives, although they may be held at an earlier date if snap elections are called.

Background

The 2023 Dutch general election resulted in losses for all parties in the fourth Rutte cabinet. Party for Freedom (PVV) became the largest party in the House of Representaties for the first time and then formed a coalition with People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD), New Social Contract (NSC) and Farmer–Citizen Movement (BBB). The Schoof cabinet with the independent Dick Schoof as prime minister was sworn in on 2 July 2024.

Electoral system

See main article: Elections in the Netherlands.

Pursuant to articles C.1, C.2 and C.3 of the electoral law, elections for the House of Representatives take place every four years in March, unless a snap election is called. The 150 members of the House of Representatives are elected by semi-open list proportional representation. The number of seats per list is determined using the D'Hondt method. A list must receive a number of votes equal to or exceeding the Hare quota (1 full seat) in order to qualify for seat distribution, meaning there is an electoral threshold of 0.67%.^[1] Voters have the option to cast a preferential vote. The seats won by a list are first allocated to the candidates who, in preferential votes, have received at least 25% of the Hare quota (effectively ¼ of a seat or 0.17% of the total votes), regardless of their placement on the electoral list. If multiple candidates from a list pass this threshold, their ordering is determined based on the number of votes received. Any remaining seats are allocated to candidates according to their position on the electoral list.^{[2] [3]}

Opinion polls

Graphical summary

The averages in the graphs below were constructed using polls listed below conducted by the four major Dutch pollsters. The trendlines show local regressions representing seat totals (not vote percentages).

Seats

There are 150 seats in total, 76 seats are needed for a majority. Parties are denoted with a dash if no indication is given of their level in the polls.

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	PVV		VVD	NSC	D66	BBB	CDA	SP	Denk	PvdD	FvD	SGP	CU	Volt	JA21	Lead	Ref
			data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"				data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"
Verian		1,551	41	26	22	3	11	5	13	7	3	5	3	3	4	3	1	15	^[4]
Peil.nl		–	38	25	19	3	11	7	14	6	4	4	5	4	4	4	2	13	^[5]
Ipsos I&O		2,020	38	26	22	3	12	5	12	8	4	7	3	3	3	3	1	12	^[6]
Peil.nl		–	38	25	19	4	11	7	13	6	4	4	5	4	4	4	2	13	^[7]
Verian		1,604	39	24	23	4	10	7	12	6	4	7	3	3	4	3	1	15	^[8]
Ipsos I&O		2,143	38	25	21	4	11	5	11	7	3	8	4	3	4	4	2	13	^[9]
Peil.nl		–	37	26	20	4	11	7	13	6	4	4	4	4	4	4	2	11	^[10]
Peil.nl		–	40	26	19	5	11	7	12	5	4	4	4	4	4	4	1	14	^[11]
Ipsos I&O		1,950	41	25	18	6	10	5	11	5	4	7	4	3	4	5	2	16	^[12]
Verian	20–23 Sep 2024	1,607	41	27	23	3	9	7	10	6	3	5	4	3	4	4	1	14	^[13]
Ipsos I&O		2,208	42	24	20	7	11	5	10	6	3	6	5	2	4	4	1	18	^[14]
Peil.nl		5,000+	38	26	20	7	11	7	11	6	4	4	3	4	4	4	1	12	^[15]
Verian	23–26 Aug 2024	1,594	39	27	23	9	11	6	8	7	4	4	3	3	3	3	0	12	^[16]
Ipsos	26–29 Jul 2024	1,016	40	27	21	11	10	8	9	3	4	5	3	3	2	3	1	13	^[17]
Peil.nl	5–6 Jul 2024	–	38	25	19	8	11	8	11	6	4	4	3	4	4	4	1	13	^[18]
	The Schoof cabinet is sworn in
Peil.nl		–	41	26	17	8	10	8	11	6	4	4	3	4	3	4	1	15	^[19]
Ipsos		1,017	44	27	20	12	12	6	6	3	3	5	3	3	2	3	1	17	^[20]
I&O Research		1,979	42	27	18	7	11	7	9	5	3	7	3	4	3	4	0	15	^[21]
	2024 European Parliament election in the Netherlands
Peil.nl		–	43	25	19	8	10	8	10	5	3	4	4	3	3	4	1	18	^[22]
Peil.nl		–	42	25	19	7	10	8	10	6	3	4	5	3	3	4	1	17	^[23]
Ipsos		2,048	48	24	19	11	10	7	6	3	3	6	3	3	3	3	1	24	^[24]
I&O Research		2,141	46	26	17	8	10	7	7	5	3	5	3	4	4	4	1	20	^[25]
Peil.nl		–	45	25	18	7	10	8	10	6	3	4	4	3	3	3	1	20	^[26]
I&O Research		1,839	47	26	18	8	10	6	7	5	2	5	3	4	4	4	1	21	^[27]
Peil.nl		–	46	25	17	8	10	8	9	7	3	3	4	3	3	3	1	21	^[28]
Ipsos		1,011	45	23	20	11	11	8	5	4	4	5	4	4	3	2	1	22	^[29]
Peil.nl		8,500	50	25	15	8	10	7	9	7	3	3	3	3	3	3	1	25	^[30]
Ipsos		1,016	49	24	20	11	10	6	6	4	3	4	3	3	3	2	2	25	^[31]
Peil.nl		–	49	25	15	9	10	7	9	7	3	3	3	3	3	3	1	24
Peil.nl		–	49	25	15	10	10	7	9	7	3	3	3	3	3	2	1	24	^[32]
Ipsos		1,022	49	25	19	11	11	8	6	3	4	4	3	3	2	1	1	24	^[33]
I&O Research		2,752	49	25	17	9	9	7	7	5	2	5	3	4	3	4	1	24	^[34]
Peil.nl		6,000	52	25	13	11	10	8	8	6	3	3	3	3	3	2	0	27	^[35]
Peil.nl		4,500+	50	25	13	15	10	7	7	6	3	3	3	3	3	2	0	25	^[36]
Ipsos		1,025	45	25	19	18	11	6	5	3	3	4	3	3	2	2	1	20	^[37]
Peil.nl		5,500+	49	23	12	17	10	9	6	6	3	3	3	3	3	3	0	26	^[38]
Peil.nl		–	48	22	13	18	11	9	6	5	3	3	3	3	3	3	0	26	^[39]
Ipsos		1,052	47	22	18	19	9	8	4	3	4	5	3	3	3	2	0	25	^[40]
	Jimmy Dijk succeeds Lilian Marijnissen as SP leader^[41]
I&O Research		2,952	43	23	16	20	10	8	5	5	2	5	3	3	3	4	0	20	^[42]
Peil.nl		–	42	22	16	19	11	10	6	5	3	3	3	3	3	3	1	20	^[43]
2023 election		–	37	25	24	20	9	7	5	5	3	3	3	3	3	2	1	12

Vote share

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	PVV		VVD	NSC	D66	BBB	CDA	SP	Denk	PvdD	FvD	SGP	CU	Volt	JA21	Others	Lead	Ref
			data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"					data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"
	Ipsos I&O		2,020	23.7%	16.2%	13.9%	2.3%	7.6%	3.7%	7.3%	5.2%	2.7%	4.8%	2.3%	2.2%	2.4%	2.2%	0.8%	–	7.5%	^[44]
Ipsos I&O		2,143	24.8%	16.7%	13.5%	2.7%	7.3%	3.6%	7.1%	4.8%	2.4%	5.2%	2.9%	2.1%	2.9%	2.6%	1.4%	–	8.1%
Ipsos I&O		1,950	25.9%	16.1%	11.8%	4.0%	6.9%	3.8%	7.4%	3.8%	2.6%	5.0%	3.0%	2.3%	2.5%	3.4%	1.4%	–	9.8%
Ipsos I&O		2,208	27.0%	15.7%	13.2%	4.4%	7.4%	3.8%	6.2%	4.4%	2.1%	4.3%	3.1%	1.8%	2.8%	3.0%	0.7%	–	11.3%
Ipsos		1,016	25.8%	17.3%	13.4%	7.3%	6.5%	5.2%	5.7%	2.2%	2.7%	3.6%	2.3%	2.2%	1.8%	2.2%	0.8%	0.9%	8.5%	^[45]
Ipsos		1,017	27.7%	17.3%	13.1%	7.7%	7.8%	3.8%	4.4%	2.5%	2.3%	3.2%	2.3%	2.3%	1.8%	1.9%	1.2%	0.7%	10.4%	^[46]
I&O Research		1,979	27.3%	17.6%	12.0%	4.6%	7.4%	4.8%	6.3%	3.2%	1.9%	4.5%	2.0%	2.6%	2.5%	2.7%	0.6%	0.6%	9.7%
Peil.nl		–	26.7%	16.0%	12.3%	5.2%	6.6%	5.3%	6.6%	3.4%	2.2%	3.2%	2.8%	2.4%	2.0%	2.7%	1.0%	1.6%	10.7%	^[47]
Ipsos		2,048	30.5%	15.2%	12.1%	7.2%	6.8%	5.0%	4.1%	2.4%	2.4%	4.2%	2.4%	2.2%	1.9%	2.0%	0.9%	0.6%	15.3%	^[48]
I&O Research		2,141	29.6%	16.6%	11.5%	5.7%	6.7%	4.6%	4.8%	3.5%	2.0%	3.3%	2.2%	2.8%	2.7%	2.8%	0.8%	0.3%	14.0%
I&O Research		1,839	30.0%	16.7%	11.8%	5.1%	6.4%	4.1%	4.9%	3.6%	1.8%	3.7%	2.5%	2.6%	2.6%	3.1%	0.8%	0.3%	14.5%
Ipsos		1,011	28.7%	14.7%	12.7%	7.4%	6.9%	5.5%	3.6%	2.9%	2.8%	3.6%	2.8%	2.8%	1.9%	1.6%	1.2%	0.9%	14.0%	^[49]
Ipsos		1,016	31.1%	15.6%	12.6%	7.0%	6.6%	4.2%	4.1%	2.8%	2.3%	3.1%	2.3%	2.1%	2.3%	1.7%	1.3%	0.8%	15.5%	^[50]
Ipsos		1,022	31.1%	15.9%	12.4%	7.0%	7.0%	5.4%	4.3%	2.2%	3.1%	2.9%	2.1%	2.4%	1.5%	1.1%	0.8%	0.6%	15.2%	^[51]
I&O Research		2,752	31.0%	16.5%	11.1%	6.3%	6.3%	4.5%	4.5%	3.2%	1.8%	3.2%	2.2%	2.6%	2.5%	3.0%	0.7%	0.6%	14.5%
Ipsos		1,025	28.4%	16.0%	12.2%	11.9%	6.9%	4.2%	3.4%	2.4%	2.5%	3.0%	2.1%	2.2%	1.7%	1.7%	0.9%	0.5%	12.4%	^[52]
Ipsos		1,052	29.8%	13.8%	11.5%	12.4%	6.1%	5.1%	2.6%	2.5%	3.1%	3.3%	1.9%	2.3%	1.9%	1.8%	0.6%	1.3%	16.0%	^[53]
I&O Research		2,952	27.4%	14.6%	10.4%	12.5%	6.6%	5.5%	3.4%	3.6%	1.8%	3.3%	2.2%	2.3%	2.2%	2.9%	0.6%	0.7%	12.8%
2023 election		–	23.49%	15.75%	15.14%	12.88%	6.29%	4.65%	3.31%	3.15%	2.37%	2.25%	2.23%	2.08%	2.04%	1.71%	0.68%	1.88%	7.74%

Notes and References

1. Web site: Zetelverdeling over partijen . Kiesraad. 22 April 2016 . nl . 9 July 2023 . 9 July 2023 . https://web.archive.org/web/20230709100010/https://www.kiesraad.nl/verkiezingen/tweede-kamer/uitslagen/zetelverdeling-over-partijen . live .
2. Nederland, Parlementsverkiezingen, 15 maart 2017: Eindrapport. OSCE/ODIHR. 7 June 2017. 28 October 2017. 24 October 2020. https://web.archive.org/web/20201024093005/http://www.osce.org/nl/odihr/elections/netherlands/322761?download=true. live.
3. Web site: Zetelverdeling over kandidaten . Kiesraad. 22 April 2016 . nl . 9 July 2023 . 9 July 2023 . https://web.archive.org/web/20230709100008/https://www.kiesraad.nl/verkiezingen/tweede-kamer/uitslagen/zetelverdeling-over-kandidaten . live .
4. Web site: Jeroen . Kester . Vertrouwen in kabinet-Schoof op laagste punt sinds aantreden, coalitie op 71 zetels in zetelpeiling . Confidence in the Schoof cabinet at its lowest point since taking office, coalition at 71 seats in seat poll . 26 November 2024 . 27 November 2024 . EenVandaag . nl . https://web.archive.org/web/20241126165611/https://eenvandaag.avrotros.nl/panels/opiniepanel/alle-uitslagen/item/vertrouwen-in-kabinet-schoof-op-laagste-punt-sinds-aantreden-coalitie-op-71-zetels-in-zetelpeiling/ . 26 November 2024.
5. Web site: Maurice de . Hond . Eén jaar na de verkiezingen . One year after the election . 24 November 2024 . 24 November 2024 . maurice.nl . nl.
6. Web site: Peter . Kanne . Asher van der . Schelde . Ontevreden maar honkvaste kiezers op rechts en links . Dissatisfied but loyal voters on the right and left . 13 November 2024 . 13 November 2024 . Ipsos I&O . nl.
7. Web site: Maurice de . Hond . Ook bij vertrouwenscijfers zien we toenemende polarisatie . We also see increasing polarization in confidence figures . 10 November 2024 . 10 November 2024 . maurice.nl . nl.
8. Web site: Rozemarijn . Lubbe . Iets minder vertrouwen in Geert Wilders na asieldeal kabinet, weinig verschuivingen in zetelpeiling . Slightly less confidence in Geert Wilders after the cabinet's asylum deal, few shifts in seat polls . 29 October 2024 . 29 October 2024 . EenVandaag . nl.
9. Web site: Sjoerd van . Heck . Peter . Kanne . Maartje van de . Koppel . Asher van der . Schelde . Ipsos I&O politieke peiling . Ipsos I&O political poll . 23 October 2024 . 25 October 2024 . Ipsos I&O . nl.
10. Web site: Maurice de . Hond . Electorale dynamiek/dynamiet . Electoral dynamics/dynamite . 13 October 2024 . 13 October 2024 . maurice.nl . nl.
11. Web site: Maurice de . Hond . Electorale patstelling na Algemene Beschouwingen . Electoral stalemate after General Considerations . 28 September 2024 . 30 September 2024 . maurice.nl . nl.
12. Web site: Sjoerd van . Heck . Peter . Kanne . Maartje van de . Koppel . Asher van der . Schelde . Ipsos I&O politieke peiling . Ipsos I&O political poll . 27 September 2024 . 27 September 2024 . Ipsos I&O . nl.
13. Web site: 2024-09-24 . NSC verliest fors in zetelpeiling, veel kiezers willen andere rol voor Pieter Omtzigt . 2024-09-24 . EenVandaag . nl.
14. Web site: Afnemend enthousiasme kabinet Schoof heeft nog geen electorale consequenties . Decreasing enthusiasm in cabinet Schoof has no electoral consequences yet . 17 September 2024 . Ipsos I&O.
15. News: Maurice de . Hond . Oordeel over regering na het regeerprogamma . Judgement over government after government program . maurice.nl . 2024-09-15 . 2024-09-15 . nl.
16. Web site: Lubbe . Rozemarijn . 27 August 2024 . Coalitie op 77 zetels in nieuwe zetelpeiling, verlies komt vooral door teleurstelling in NSC . Coalition at 77 seats in new seat poll, loss results mostly from disappointment with NSC . EenVandaag.
17. Web site: Rozemarijn . Lubbe . PVV daalt verder in zetelpeiling na installatie van het nieuwe kabinet, CDA wint . PVV drops further in seat poll after installation of new cabinet, CDA wins . 30 July 2024 . EenVandaag.
18. Web site: Hond . Maurice de . Na het spraakmakende debat over de regeringsverklaring – Peilingen . 2024-07-06 . nl-NL.
19. Web site: De peiling voor het bordes. 29 June 2024. Peil.nl. Wekelijkse peiling zetelverdeling. Maurice de. Hond.
20. Web site: PVV verliest in nieuwe zetelpeiling na bekendmaking ministers, GroenLinks-PvdA in de plus . Jeroen . Kester . 25 June 2024 . EenVandaag.
21. Web site: Enthousiasme over nieuw kabinet afgenomen . Peter . Kanne . 22 June 2024 . Ipsos I&O.
22. Web site: Peiling Tweede Kamerzetels: PVV 43, PvdA-GroenLinks 25. 8 June 2024. Peil.nl. Wekelijkse peiling zetelverdeling. Maurice de. Hond.
23. Web site: Reactie op Schoof als Premier. 1 June 2024. Peil.nl. Wekelijkse peiling zetelverdeling. Maurice de. Hond.
24. Web site: PVV wint na hoofdlijnenakkoord in zetelpeiling, geen effect bij andere partijen . 28 May 2024. EenVandaag.
25. Web site: Kiezers voorzichtig hoopvol over nieuw kabinet . 23 May 2024 . Ipsos I&O.
26. Web site: De electorale reacties op het hoofdlijnen-akkoord . 18 May 2024. Peil.nl. Wekelijkse peiling zetelverdeling. Maurice de. Hond.
27. Web site: Weinig vertrouwen in welslagen formatie . 15 May 2024 . Ipsos I&O.
28. Web site: Winst PVV neemt iets af . 4 May 2024. Peil.nl. Wekelijkse peiling zetelverdeling. Maurice de. Hond.
29. Web site: Politieke barometer week 18. 30 April 2024. Ipsos.
30. Web site: Electorale formatie obstipatie. 21 April 2024. Peil.nl. Wekelijkse peiling zetelverdeling. Maurice de. Hond.
31. Web site: Kiezers formerende partijen oneens over financiën, NSC weet verloren stemmers niet terug te halen in nieuwe zetelpeiling. 26 March 2024. EenVandaag.
32. Web site: Hond . Maurice de . 23 March 2024 . Twee derde hoopt dat formatie succesvol verloopt .
33. Web site: NSC met 11 zetels op dieptepunt in zetelpeiling, kiezers willen dat Omtzigt alsnog meewerkt aan rechtse coalitie. 27 February 2024. EenVandaag.
34. Web site: Politieke peiling februari 2024 . Kanne . Peter . Koppel . Maartje van de . Schelde . Asher van der . 13 February 2024 . Ipsos I&O.
35. Web site: NSC en Omtzigt zakken fors terug na breuk. 11 February 2024. Maurice de. Hond.
36. Web site: PVV 50 zetels, NSC zakt langzaam weg. 3 February 2024. Maurice de. Hond.
37. Web site: Helft vindt dat formatie te traag gaat, PVV blijft ondertussen met afstand grootste partij in zetelpeiling. 30 January 2024. EenVandaag.
38. Web site: Historische peiling: PVV 4 keer zo groot als de VVD. Maurice de. Hond. 20 January 2024 .
39. Web site: Recordscores PVV en VVD – Peilingen. Maurice de. Hond.
40. Web site: PVV stijgt verder door naar historische 47 zetels in nieuwe zetelpeiling, VVD hard onderuit. 19 December 2023. EenVandaag.
41. News: 2023-12-13. Jimmy Dijk succeeds Lilian Marijnissen as SP leader. NL. NU.nl. 2023-12-14.
42. Web site: I&O-zetelpeiling: groei PVV zet door. 14 December 2023. I&O Research.
43. Web site: Enorme electorale schommelingen na de verkiezingen. 2 December 2023.
44. Web site: Sjoerd van . Heck . Peter . Kanne . Maartje van de . Koppel . Asher van der . Schelde . Ipsos I&O politieke peiling . Ipsos I&O political poll . 13 November 2024 . 13 November 2024 . Ipsos I&O . nl.
45. Web site: Politieke barometer week 31. 31 July 2024. Ipsos.
46. Web site: Politieke barometer week 26. 27 June 2024. Ipsos.
47. Web site: Peiling Tweede Kamerzetels: PVV 43, PvdA-GroenLinks 25. 8 June 2024. Peil.nl. Wekelijkse peiling zetelverdeling. Maurice de. Hond.
48. Web site: Politieke barometer week 22. 30 May 2024. Ipsos.
49. Web site: Politieke barometer week 18. 30 April 2024. Ipsos.
50. Web site: Politieke barometer week 13. 27 March 2024. Ipsos.
51. Web site: Politieke barometer week 9. 28 February 2024. Ipsos.
52. Web site: Politieke barometer week 5. 31 January 2024. Ipsos.
53. Web site: Politieke barometer week 51. 21 December 2023. Ipsos.