| Country: | Netherlands |
| Ongoing: | yes |
| Previous Election: | 2023 |
| Seats For Election: | All 150 seats in the House of Representatives |
| Majority Seats: | 76 |
| Election Date: | By 15 March 2028 |
| Nopercentage: | yes |
| Leader1: | Geert Wilders |
| Party1: | Party for Freedom |
| Current Seats1: | 37 |
| Leader2: | Frans Timmermans |
| Party2: | GroenLinks–PvdA |
| Current Seats2: | 25 |
| Leader3: | Dilan Yeşilgöz |
| Party3: | People's Party for Freedom and Democracy |
| Current Seats3: | 24 |
| Leader4: | Pieter Omtzigt |
| Party4: | New Social Contract |
| Current Seats4: | 20 |
| Party5: | Democrats 66 |
| Current Seats5: | 9 |
| Leader6: | Caroline van der Plas |
| Party6: | BBB |
| Current Seats6: | 7 |
| Leader7: | Henri Bontenbal |
| Party7: | Christian Democratic Appeal |
| Current Seats7: | 5 |
| Leader8: | Jimmy Dijk |
| Party8: | Socialist Party (Netherlands) |
| Current Seats8: | 5 |
| Leader9: | Stephan van Baarle |
| Party9: | Denk |
| Current Seats9: | 3 |
| Leader10: | Esther Ouwehand |
| Party10: | Party for the Animals |
| Current Seats10: | 3 |
| Leader11: | Thierry Baudet |
| Party11: | Forum for Democracy (Netherlands) |
| Current Seats11: | 3 |
| Leader12: | Chris Stoffer |
| Party12: | Reformed Political Party |
| Current Seats12: | 3 |
| Leader13: | Mirjam Bikker |
| Party13: | Christian Union (Netherlands) |
| Current Seats13: | 3 |
| Party14: | Volt Netherlands |
| Current Seats14: | 2 |
| Leader15: | Joost Eerdmans |
| Party15: | JA21 |
| Current Seats15: | 1 |
| cabinet | |
| Before Election: | Schoof cabinet |
| Before Party: | PVV–VVD–NSC–BBB |
The next Dutch general election to elect the members of the House of Representatives is scheduled for March 2028, but may be held at an earlier date if a snap election is called.
See main article: Elections in the Netherlands.
Pursuant to articles C.1, C.2 and C.3 of the electoral law, elections for the House of Representatives take place every four years in March, unless a snap election is called. The 150 members of the House of Representatives are elected by semi-open list proportional representation. The number of seats per list is determined using the D'Hondt method. A list must receive a number of votes equal to or exceeding the Hare quota (1 full seat) in order to qualify for seat distribution, meaning there is an electoral threshold of 0.67%.[1] Voters have the option to cast a preferential vote. The seats won by a list are first allocated to the candidates who, in preferential votes, have received at least 25% of the Hare quota (effectively ¼ of a seat or 0.17% of the total votes), regardless of their placement on the electoral list. If multiple candidates from a list pass this threshold, their ordering is determined based on the number of votes received. Any remaining seats are allocated to candidates according to their position on the electoral list.[2] [3]
The averages in the graphs below were constructed using polls listed below conducted by the four major Dutch pollsters. The trendlines show local regressions representing seat totals (not vote percentages).
There are 150 seats in total, 76 seats are needed for a majority. Parties are denoted with a dash if no indication is given of their level in the polls.
| Polling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size | PVV | VVD | NSC | D66 | BBB | CDA | SP | Denk | PvdD | FvD | SGP | CU | Volt | JA21 | Lead | Ref | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PvdA | GL | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| data-sort-type="number" style="background:;" | data-sort-type="number" style="background:;" | data-sort-type="number" style="background:;" | data-sort-type="number" style="background:;" | data-sort-type="number" style="background:;" | data-sort-type="number" style="background:;" | data-sort-type="number" style="background:;" | data-sort-type="number" style="background:;" | data-sort-type="number" style="background:;" | data-sort-type="number" style="background:;" | data-sort-type="number" style="background:;" | data-sort-type="number" style="background:;" | data-sort-type="number" style="background:;" | data-sort-type="number" style="background:;" | data-sort-type="number" style="background:;" | data-sort-type="number" style="background:;" | ||||||||||||||||
| Ipsos | 26–29 Jul 2024 | 1,016 | 40 | 27 | 21 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 13 | [4] | ||||||||||||
| Peil.nl | 5-6 Jul 2024 | – | 38 | 25 | 19 | 8 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 13 | [5] | ||||||||||||
| Prime Minister Dick Schoof and his cabinet are inaugurated | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Peil.nl | – | 41 | 26 | 17 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 11 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 15 | [6] | |||||||||||||
| Ipsos | 1,017 | 44 | 27 | 20 | 12 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 17 | [7] | |||||||||||||
| I&O Research | 1,979 | 42 | 27 | 18 | 7 | 11 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 15 | [8] | |||||||||||||
| 2024 European Parliament election in the Netherlands | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Peil.nl | – | 43 | 25 | 19 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 18 | [9] | |||||||||||||
| Peil.nl | – | 42 | 25 | 19 | 7 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 17 | [10] | |||||||||||||
| Ipsos | 2,048 | 48 | 24 | 19 | 11 | 10 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 24 | [11] | |||||||||||||
| I&O Research | 2,141 | 46 | 26 | 17 | 8 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 20 | [12] | |||||||||||||
| Peil.nl | – | 45 | 25 | 18 | 7 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 20 | [13] | |||||||||||||
| I&O Research | 1,839 | 47 | 26 | 18 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 21 | [14] | |||||||||||||
| Peil.nl | – | 46 | 25 | 17 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 21 | [15] | |||||||||||||
| Ipsos | 1,011 | 45 | 23 | 20 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 22 | [16] | |||||||||||||
| Peil.nl | 8,500 | 50 | 25 | 15 | 8 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 25 | [17] | |||||||||||||
| Ipsos | 1,016 | 49 | 24 | 20 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 25 | [18] | |||||||||||||
| Peil.nl | – | 49 | 25 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 24 | ||||||||||||||
| Peil.nl | – | 49 | 25 | 15 | 10 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 24 | [19] | |||||||||||||
| Ipsos | 1,022 | 49 | 25 | 19 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 24 | [20] | |||||||||||||
| I&O Research | 2,752 | 49 | 25 | 17 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 24 | [21] | |||||||||||||
| Peil.nl | 6,000 | 52 | 25 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 27 | [22] | |||||||||||||
| Peil.nl | 4,500+ | 50 | 25 | 13 | 15 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 25 | [23] | |||||||||||||
| Ipsos | 1,025 | 45 | 25 | 19 | 18 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 20 | [24] | |||||||||||||
| Peil.nl | 5,500+ | 49 | 23 | 12 | 17 | 10 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 26 | [25] | |||||||||||||
| Peil.nl | – | 48 | 22 | 13 | 18 | 11 | 9 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 26 | [26] | |||||||||||||
| Ipsos | 1,052 | 47 | 22 | 18 | 19 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 25 | [27] | |||||||||||||
| Jimmy Dijk succeeds Lilian Marijnissen as SP leader[28] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| I&O Research | 2,952 | 43 | 23 | 16 | 20 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 20 | [29] | |||||||||||||
| Peil.nl | – | 42 | 22 | 16 | 19 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 20 | [30] | |||||||||||||
| 2023 election | – | 37 | 25 | 24 | 20 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 12 | ||||||||||||||
| Polling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size | PVV | VVD | NSC | D66 | BBB | CDA | SP | Denk | PvdD | FvD | SGP | CU | Volt | JA21 | Others | Lead | Ref | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PvdA | GL | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Ipsos | 1,016 | 25.8% | 17.3% | 13.4% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 8.5% | [31] | ||||||||||||
| Ipsos | 1,017 | 27.7% | 17.3% | 13.1% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 10.4% | [32] | ||||||||||||
| I&O Research | 1,979 | 27.3% | 17.6% | 12.0% | 4.6% | 7.4% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 4.5% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 9.7% | |||||||||||||
| – | 17.0% | 21.1% | 11.3% | 3.7% | 8.4% | 5.4% | 9.5% | 2.2% | – | 4.5% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 5.1% | 0.7% | 2.1% | 4.1% | ||||||||||||||
| Peil.nl | – | 26.7% | 16.0% | 12.3% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 10.7% | [33] | ||||||||||||
| Ipsos | 2,048 | 30.5% | 15.2% | 12.1% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 15.3% | [34] | ||||||||||||
| I&O Research | 2,141 | 29.6% | 16.6% | 11.5% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 14.0% | |||||||||||||
| I&O Research | 1,839 | 30.0% | 16.7% | 11.8% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 14.5% | |||||||||||||
| Ipsos | 1,011 | 28.7% | 14.7% | 12.7% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 14.0% | [35] | ||||||||||||
| Ipsos | 1,016 | 31.1% | 15.6% | 12.6% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 15.5% | [36] | ||||||||||||
| Ipsos | 1,022 | 31.1% | 15.9% | 12.4% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 15.2% | [37] | ||||||||||||
| I&O Research | 2,752 | 31.0% | 16.5% | 11.1% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 14.5% | |||||||||||||
| Ipsos | 1,025 | 28.4% | 16.0% | 12.2% | 11.9% | 6.9% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 12.4% | [38] | ||||||||||||
| Ipsos | 1,052 | 29.8% | 13.8% | 11.5% | 12.4% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 16.0% | [39] | ||||||||||||
| I&O Research | 2,952 | 27.4% | 14.6% | 10.4% | 12.5% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 12.8% | |||||||||||||
| 2023 election | – | 23.49% | 15.75% | 15.14% | 12.88% | 6.29% | 4.65% | 3.31% | 3.15% | 2.37% | 2.25% | 2.23% | 2.08% | 2.04% | 1.71% | 0.68% | 1.88% | 7.74% | |||||||||||||