Next Bangladeshi general election explained
| Country: | Bangladesh |
| Type: | Parliamentary |
| Ongoing: | yes |
| Previous Election: | 2024 Bangladeshi general election |
| Previous Year: | 2024 |
| Election Date: | TBA |
| Outgoing Members: | List of members of the 12th Jatiya Sangsad |
| Seats For Election: | All 300 directly elected seats in the Jatiya Sangsad |
| Majority Seats: | 151 |
| Opinion Polls: | Next Bangladeshi general election#Opinion poll |
| Leader1: | Sheikh Hasina |
| Party1: | Awami League |
| Alliance1: | GA |
| Leader Since1: | 16 February 1981 |
| Last Election1: | 224 |
| Leader2: | GM Quader |
| Party2: | Jatiya Party (Ershad) |
| Leader Since2: | 8 February 2018 |
| Last Election2: | 11 |
| Seats Needed2: | 140 |
| Leader3: | Khaleda Zia |
| Party3: | Bangladesh Nationalist Party |
| Leader Since3: | 10 May 1984 |
| Last Election3: | Boycotted |
| Seats Needed3: | 151 |
| Leader4: | Rezaul Karim |
| Party4: | Islami Andolan Bangladesh |
| Leader Since4: | 25 November 2006 |
| Last Election4: | Boycotted |
| Seats Needed4: | 151 |
| Leader5: | Shafiqur Rahman |
| Party5: | Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami |
| Leader Since5: | 12 November 2019 |
| Last Election5: | Deregistered |
| Seats Needed5: | 151 |
| Chief Advise |
| Posttitle: | Prime Minister after election |
| Before Election: | Muhammad Yunus |
General elections are expected to take place in Bangladesh following the overthrow of the government of Sheikh Hasina by student-led protests in 2024. A constituent assembly election will take place before the general elections,[1] The interim government led by Muhammad Yunus has established a Constitutional Reform Commission for this purpose.
Schedule
| Poll Event | Schedule |
|---|
| Declaration of the schedule | TBA |
| Application deadline for candidates | TBA |
| Scrutiny of nomination | TBA |
| Last Date for Withdrawal of nomination | TBA |
| Symbol allocation | TBA |
| Start of campaign period | TBA |
| End of campaign period | TBA |
| Date of Poll | TBA |
| Date of Counting of Votes | TBA |
| Date of reserved seats Poll | TBA | |
Background
The 12th Sangsad was dissolved by President Mohammed Shahabuddin following the resignation of Sheikh Hasina.[2] In June 2024, student protests erupted throughout the country, demanding the reform of quotas in government jobs. The protests were met with brutal crackdown by law-enforcement agencies and paramilitary forces, resulting in the deaths of many students. By August, the protests intensified into large-scale civil unrest against the government which eventually culminated in Hasina's resignation on 5 August.
Following negotiations between student leaders and the Armed Forces, Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus was appointed as Chief Adviser to head an interim government with a view to leading the country to new elections.[3]
The Awami League won the January 2024 general elections following a record low voter turnout and a controversial election, spite of which they formed a government.[4] The United States Department of State, in a statement, said that the election was not free and fair[5] and the UK's Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office termed the election lacking the preconditions of democracy.[6] According to The Economist, through this election, "Bangladesh effectively became a one-party state".[7]
The main opposition party, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), demanded that the government hand over power to a neutral caretaker government before the January 2024 elections.[8] This was rejected by Hasina, who vowed that "Bangladesh will never allow an unelected government again".[9] Hasina's resistance to a caretaker government arose following the 2006–2008 crisis, during which a caretaker government assumed military control of the country and arrested a number of political leaders, including Hasina and Khaleda Zia. [10] Zia was sentenced to prison for five years on February 8, 2018, for her involvement in the Zia Orphanage corruption case.[11] The sentence was then modified to 10 years.[12] Zia’s successor as chair of the party, her son Tarique Rahman, was also found guilty of criminal conspiracy and multiple counts of murder for a grenade attack in 2004 that injured Hasina and killed 24 people.[13] He was sentenced to life in prison. As such, he was barred from running for office.[14] Zia was released by the President of Bangladesh following Hasina's resignation.[15]
Electoral system
The 350 members of the Jatiya Sangsad consist of 300 directly elected seats using first-past-the-post voting (FPTP) in single-member constituencies, and an additional 50 seats reserved for women. The reserved seats are elected proportionally by the elected members. Each parliament sits for a five-year term.[16] The electoral system has been criticised as disproportional[17] [18] and a key driver of political deadlock in the country. Some of the leading minor parties, including Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami, Islami Andolan Bangladesh, Communist Party of Bangladesh, Gono Odhikar Parishad, Amar Bangladesh Party etc., had been in staunch opposition to the system and in support of proportional representation (PR), where Bangladesh Nationalist Party remains a supporter of FPTP.[19] [20] [21] [22]
Parties and alliances
Surveys and polls
Opinion polls
Polling agency! rowspan="2"| Date published | Sample size | Margin of error | AL | JP(E) | BNP | IAB | Jamaat | Student supported–New Party | Others | Independents | None | "Can't say"/Undecided | Lead |
|---|
| data-sort-type="number" style="background:;" | | data-sort-type="number" style="background:;" | | data-sort-type="number" style="background:;" | | data-sort-type+"number" style="background:;" | | data-sort-type="number" style="background:;" | | data-sort-type+"number" style="background:;" | |
|---|
| Bangladesh Speaks | September 2024 | 5,115 (field) | ± 1.4% | 5% | 1% | bgcolor= | 21% | 3% | 14% | 10% | 1% | 3% | 2% | 38% | bgcolor= | 7% |
| 3,581 (online) | ± 1.67% | 10% | 0% | 10% | 1% | 25% | 35% | 1% | 3% | 3% | 11% | 10% |
| Average | 7.5% | 0.5% | 15.5% | 2% | 19.5% | 22.5% | 1% | 3% | 2.5% | 24.5% | 3% | |
Exit polls
Results
Division wise
Party! colspan="3" | Seats | Votes |
|---|
| Contested | Won | +/– | In total | Average |
|---|
| % | +/–pp |
|---|
| AL | | | | | | | |
| JP(E) | | | | | | | |
| BNP | | | | | | | |
| IAB | | | | | | | |
| Jamaat-e-Islami | | | | | | | |
| Others | | | | | | | |
| IND | | | | | | | |
| Total | | | | | | |
|
|---|
| Valid Votes | | | | |
| Invalid Votes | | | | |
| Total Votes Cast | | | | |
|
|---|
| Registered/Turnout | | | | |
|
|---|
| Source: |
|
Next Bangladeshi general election (13th Jatiya Sangsad) : Khulna Division| Party | Seats | Votes |
|---|
| Contested | Won | +/– | In total | Average |
|---|
| % | +/–pp |
|---|
| AL | | | | | | | |
| JP(E) | | | | | | | |
| BNP | | | | | | | |
| IAB | | | | | | | |
| Jamaat-e-Islami | | | | | | | |
| Others | | | | | | | |
| IND | | | | | | | |
| Total | | | | | | |
|
|---|
| Valid Votes | | | | |
| Invalid Votes | | | | |
| Total Votes Cast | | | | |
|
|---|
| Registered/Turnout | | | | |
|
|---|
| Source: |
|
Next Bangladeshi general election (13th Jatiya Sangsad) : Barishal Division| Party | Seats | Votes |
|---|
| Contested | Won | +/– | In total | Average |
|---|
| % | +/–pp |
|---|
| AL | | | | | | | |
| JP(E) | | | | | | | |
| BNP | | | | | | | |
| IAB | | | | | | | |
| Jamaat-e-Islami | | | | | | | |
| Others | | | | | | | |
| IND | | | | | | | |
| Total | | | | | | |
|
|---|
| Valid Votes | | | | |
| Invalid Votes | | | | |
| Total Votes Cast | | | | |
|
|---|
| Registered/Turnout | | | | |
|
|---|
| Source: |
|
Next Bangladeshi general election (13th Jatiya Sangsad) : Dhaka Division| Party | Seats | Votes |
|---|
| Contested | Won | +/– | In total | Average |
|---|
| % | +/–pp |
|---|
| AL | | | | | | | |
| JP(E) | | | | | | | |
| BNP | | | | | | | |
| IAB | | | | | | | |
| Jamaat-e-Islami | | | | | | | |
| Others | | | | | | | |
| IND | | | | | | | |
| Total | | | | | | |
|
|---|
| Valid Votes | | | | |
| Invalid Votes | | | | |
| Total Votes Cast | | | | |
|
|---|
| Registered/Turnout | | | | |
|
|---|
| Source: |
|
Next Bangladeshi general election (13th Jatiya Sangsad) : Sylhet Division| Party | Seats | Votes |
|---|
| Contested | Won | +/– | In total | Average |
|---|
| % | +/–pp |
|---|
| AL | | | | | | | |
| JP(E) | | | | | | | |
| BNP | | | | | | | |
| IAB | | | | | | | |
| Jamaat-e-Islami | | | | | | | |
| Others | | | | | | | |
| IND | | | | | | | |
| Total | | | | | | |
|
|---|
| Valid Votes | | | | |
| Invalid Votes | | | | |
| Total Votes Cast | | | | |
|
|---|
| Registered/Turnout | | | | |
|
|---|
| Source: |
|
Next Bangladeshi general election (13th Jatiya Sangsad) : Chattogram Division| Party | Seats | Votes |
|---|
| Contested | Won | +/– | In total | Average |
|---|
| % | +/–pp |
|---|
| AL | | | | | | | |
| JP(E) | | | | | | | |
| BNP | | | | | | | |
| IAB | | | | | | | |
| Jamaat-e-Islami | | | | | | | |
| Others | | | | | | | |
| IND | | | | | | | |
| Total | | | | | | |
|
|---|
| Valid Votes | | | | |
| Invalid Votes | | | | |
| Total Votes Cast | | | | |
|
|---|
| Registered/Turnout | | | | |
|
|---|
| Source: |
|
Constituency-wise
See also
Notes and References
- News: Constituent assembly to be convened for charter reform: Nahid . https://web.archive.org/web/20240924185219/https://www.jagonews24.com/en/national/news/76602 . September 24, 2024 .
- News: 6 August 2024. Bangladesh Parliament dissolved, president's office says. 9 August 2024. Reuters.
- News: 9 August 2024. Who is Muhammad Yunus, the Nobel laureate leader of Bangladesh's interim government?. 7 August 2024. CNN.
- News: 4 January 2024. Sheikh Hasina wins fifth term in Bangladesh amid turnout controversy. 9 August 2024. Al Jazeera. en.
- Web site: Bangladesh Election 'Not Free Or Fair': US . 9 January 2024 . . en-US . 8 January 2024 . https://web.archive.org/web/20240108201512/https://www.barrons.com/news/bangladesh-election-not-free-or-fair-us-2fe9466b . live .
- Web site: Agence France-Presse. UK Says Boycotted Bangladesh Poll Not 'Democratic' . 9 January 2024 . . en-US . 10 January 2024 . https://web.archive.org/web/20240110082309/https://www.barrons.com/news/uk-says-boycotted-bangladesh-poll-not-democratic-38661baf . live .
- News: Bangladesh is now in effect a one-party state . 9 January 2024 . . 0013-0613 . 9 January 2024 . https://web.archive.org/web/20240109014943/https://www.economist.com/asia/2024/01/08/bangladeshs-prime-minister-sheikh-hasina-wins-a-fifth-term . live .
- Web site: Kamruzzaman . Md. . January 17, 2023 . Bangladesh's main opposition party demands formation of caretaker government ahead of polls . 20 April 2024 . Anadolu Agency.
- Web site: February 10, 2023 . Bangladesh will never allow an unelected government again, says Hasina . 20 April 2023 . BDNews24.
- Web site: 16 July 2007 . Former Bangladesh Prime Minister Arrested . NPR.
- Web site: June 11, 2023 . Minister: Khaleda Zia's release will be revoked if she participates in politics . Dhaka Tribune.
- Web site: October 31, 2018 . Zia Orphanage Graft Case: Khaleda's jail term raised to 10 years . The Daily Star.
- Web site: February 8, 2018 . Tarique Rahman acting chairman: BNP leader . The Daily Star.
- Web site: June 11, 2023 . Adequate data found to try Jamaat for war crimes . Bangladesh Post.
- News: 6 August 2024. Who is Khaleda Zia, Sheikh Hasina's rival and former Bangladesh PM who was on 'deathbed' a few months ago. 9 August 2024. The Economic Times.
- Web site: IPU Parline database: Bangladesh (Jatiya Sangsad), Electoral system. 18 April 2021. Inter-Parliamentary Union.
- Katherine L. Ekstrand, No Matter Who Draws the Lines: A Comparative Analysis of the Utility of Independent Redistricting Commissions in First-Past-the-Post Democracies, 45 GJICL (2016).
- Web site: June 2016 . Women's Reserved Seats in Bangladesh: A Systemic Analysis of Meaningful Representation . 7 October 2024 . . en.
- Web site: bn:প্রধান উপদেষ্টার সঙ্গে পীর সাহেব চরমোনাই'র নেতৃত্বে ৬ সদস্যের প্রতিনিধি দলের সংলাপ. https://www.islamiandolanbd.org/songlap-2/. Islami Andolan Bangladesh. 5 October 2024.
- Web site: পিআর নির্বাচন পদ্ধতি কী? প্রচলিত ব্যবস্থার সঙ্গে পার্থক্য কোথায়. Jugantor. 20 October 2024.
- Web site: সংখ্যানুপাতিক নির্বাচন পদ্ধতি কী, কীভাবে হতে পারে বাস্তবায়ন. www.banglanews24.com. 16 October 2024.
- Web site: খাইরুল. বাশার. কেমন হবে যদি নির্বাচন হয় সংখ্যানুপাতিক পদ্ধতিতে. Shokal Shondha. 24 October 2024.
