List of regions by past GDP (PPP) explained

These are lists of regions and countries by their estimated real gross domestic product (GDP) in terms of purchasing power parity (PPP), the value of all final goods and services produced within a country/region in a given year. GDP dollar (international dollar) estimates here are derived from PPP estimates.

Methodology

In the absence of sufficient data for nearly all economies until well into the 19th century, past GDP cannot be calculated, but at best only roughly estimated. In a first step, economic historians try to reconstruct the GDP per capita for a given political or geographical entity from the meagre evidence. This value is then multiplied by estimated population size, another determinant for which as a rule only little ancient data is available.

A key notion in the whole process is that of subsistence, the income level which is necessary for sustaining one's life. Since pre-modern societies, by modern standards, were characterized by a very low degree of urbanization and a large majority of people working in the agricultural sector, economic historians prefer to express income in cereal units. To achieve comparability over space and time, these numbers are then converted into monetary units such as International Dollars, a third step which leaves a relatively wide margin of interpretation.

The formula thus is: GDP (PPP) = GDP per capita (PPP) x population size

It should be stressed that, historically speaking, population size is the far more important multiplier in the equation. This is because, in contrast to industrial economies, the average income ceiling of premodern agrarian societies was quite low everywhere, possibly not higher than twice the subsistence level.[1] Therefore, the total GDP as given below primarily reflects the respective historical population size, and is much less indicative of contemporary living standards than, for example, estimations of past GDP per capita are.

According to the 20th-century macroeconomist Paul Bairoch, a pioneer in historical economic analysis,

Rather, Bairoch advocates a formula combining GNP per capita and total GNP to give a better measure of the economic performance of national economies.[2]

World

1750–1990 (Bairoch)

In his 1995 book Economics and World History, economic historian Paul Bairoch gave the following estimates in terms of 1960 US dollars, for GNP from 1750 to 1990, comparing what are today the Third World (Asia, Africa, Latin America) and the First World (Western Europe, Northern America, Japan)[3]

Year! colspan="2"
1960 dollars1990 dollars
Third WorldFirst WorldThird WorldFirst World
175011235
180013747
183015067
1860159118
1900184297
1913217430
1928252568
1938293678
1950338889
19708102,450
19801,2803,400
19901,7304,350

A Third World refers to Asia (excluding Japan), Africa, and Latin America.

B First World refers to Europe, Russia, the United States, Canada, and Japan.

1–2008 (Maddison)

The following estimates are taken exclusively from the 2007 monograph Contours of the World Economy, 1–2030 AD by the British economist Angus Maddison.[4]

When graphed, one can see that India was the world's largest economy from year 1 to year 1500, when it lost the position to China, who subsequently lost the position around 1890. China is reasserting its position as the world's largest economy, which it had lost. [5] There was little difference in GDP per capita based on level of development in earlier eras, so in 1500, China was the largest economy in the world, followed closely by India.[5]

+ GDP (PPP) in millions of 1990 International DollarsCountry / Region1 1000 1500 1600 1700 1820 1870 1913 1950 1973 19892008
Austria 213 298 1,414 2,093 2,483 4,104 8,419 23,451 25,702 85,227 124,791198,004
Belgium 135 170 1,225 1,561 2,288 4,529 13,716 32,347 47,190 118,516 166,396246,103
Denmark 72 144 443 569 727 1,471 3,782 11,670 29,654 70,032 93,728135,037
8 16 136 215 255 913 1,999 6,389 17,051 51,724 84,092127,676
France 2,366 2,763 10,912 15,559 19,539 35,468 72,100 144,489 220,492 683,965 1,000,2861,423,562
Germany 1,225 1,435 8,256 12,656 13,650 26,819 72,149 237,332 265,354 944,755 1,302,2121,713,405
6,475 2,250 11,550 14,410 14,630 22,535 41,814 95,487 164,957 582,713 906,0531,157,636
85 128 723 2,072 4,047 4,288 9,952 24,955 60,642 175,791 247,906411,055
Norway 40 80 183 266 361 777 2,360 5,988 17,728 44,852 76,733132,365
Sweden 80 160 382 626 1,231 3,098 6,927 17,403 47,269 109,794 149,415193,352
Switzerland 128 123 411 750 1,068 2,165 5,581 16,483 42,545 117,251 141,599190,328
UK 320 800 2,815 6,007 10,709 36,232 100,180 224,618 347,850 675,941 940,9081,446,959
12 country total 11,146 8,366 38,450 56,784 70,988 142,399 338,979 840,612 1,286,434 3,660,561 5,235,1157,402,911
180 255 606 814 1,638 3,043 4,219 7,467 17,615 63,397 102,922154,132
Spain 1,867 1,800 4,495 7,029 7,481 12,299 19,556 41,653 61,429 266,896 454,166797,927
Other 1,240 504 632 975 1,106 2,110 4,712 12,478 30,600 105,910 169,648343,059
Total Western Europe 14,433 10,925 44,183 65,602 81,213 159,851 367,466 902,210 1,396,078 4,096,764 5,961,8518,698,029
1,956 2,600 6,696 9,289 11,393 24,906 50,163 134,793 185,023 550,756 718,0391,030,628
1,560 2,840 8,458 11,426 16,196 37,678 83,646 232,351 510,243 1,513,070 2,037,2532,242,206
United States 272 520 800 600 527 12,548 98,374 517,383 1,455,916 3,536,622 5,703,5219,485,136
Other Western offshoots 176 228 320 320 306 951 13,119 65,558 179,574 521,667 856,8471,448,542
Total Western offshoots 448 748 1,120 920 833 13,499 111,493 582,941 1,635,490 4,058,289 6,560,36810,933,678
Mexico 880 1,800 3,188 1,134 2,558 5,000 6,214 25,921 67,368 279,302 491,767877,312
1,360 2,760 4,100 2,629 3,788 9,921 21,097 94,875 347,960 1,110,158 1,735,9193,168,621
Total Latin America 2,240 4,560 7,288 3,763 6,346 14,921 27,311 120,796 415,328 1,389,460 2,227,6864,045,933
Japan 1,200 3,188 7,700 9,620 15,390 20,739 25,393 71,653 160,966 1,242,932 2,208,8582,904,141
China 26,820 26,55061,800 96,000 82,800 228,600 189,740 241,431 244,985 739,414 2,051,8138,908,894
India33,750 33,750 60,500 74,250 90,750 111,417 134,882 204,242 222,222 494,832 1,043,9123,415,183
Other east Asia 4,845 8,968 20,822 24,582 28,440 36,451 53,155 122,874 256,938 829,0232,021,5285,154,979
10,120 12,415 10,495 12,637 12,291 15,270 22,468 40,588 106,283 548,120 855,1301,905,346
Total Asia (excl. Japan) 75,535 81,683 153,617 207,469 214,281 391,738 400,245 609,135 830,428 2,621,624 5,972,38319,384,402
Africa 8,030 13,835 19,383 23,473 25,776 31,266 45,234 79,486 203,131 549,993 889,9221,734,918
World 105,402 120,379 248,445 331,562 371,428 694,598 1,110,951 2,733,365 5,331,689 16,022,888 26,576,35950,973,935
Country / Region1 1000 1500 1600 1700 1820 1870 1913 1950 1973 19892008

A From 1 AD to 1913 AD, India includes modern Pakistan and Bangladesh. From 1950 onwards, India refers only to the modern Republic of India.

Maddison' assumptions have been both admired and criticized by academics and journalists. By Bryan Haig, who has characterized Maddison's figures for 19th century Australia as "inaccurate and irrelevant",[6] by W. W. Rostow, according to whom "this excessive macroeconomic bias also causes him (Maddison) to mis-date, in my view, the beginning of what he calls the capitalist era at 1820 rather than, say, the mid-1780s."[7]

W. J. MacPherson has described Maddison's work on early medieval India of using "dubious comparative data."[8] Maddison's estimates have also been critically reviewed and revised by the Italian economists Giovanni Federico[9] and Elio Lo Cascio/Paolo Malanima (see below).[10]

However, economist and journalist Evan Davis has praised Maddison's research by citing it as a "fantastic publication" and that it was "based on the detailed scholarship of the world expert on historical economic data Angus Maddison." He also added that "One shouldn't read the book in the belief the statistics are accurate to 12 decimal places."[11]

Europe

1830–1938 (Bairoch)

The following estimates were made by the economic historian Paul Bairoch.[12] Contrary to most other estimates on this page, the GNP (at market prices) is given here in 1960 US dollars. Unlike Maddison, Bairoch allows for the fluctuation of borders, basing his estimates mostly on the historical boundaries at the given points in time.[13]

+ GNP (at market prices) in millions of 1960 US dollarsCountry / Regiondata-sort-type="number" 1830data-sort-type="number" 1840data-sort-type="number" 1850data-sort-type="number" 1860data-sort-type="number" 1870data-sort-type="number" 1880data-sort-type="number" 1890data-sort-type="number" 1900data-sort-type="number" 1910data-sort-type="number" 1913data-sort-type="number" 1925data-sort-type="number" 1938
Austria––––––––––4,3144,320
7,210 8,315 9,190 9,996 11,380 12,297 15,380 19,400 23,970 26,050––
Baltic countries––––––––––2,2982,760
Belgium 1,098 1,397 1,809 2,302 2,882 3,256 3,804 4,800 6,308 6,7947,6588,501
–––5886166118089701,1651,2601,6132,628
Czechoslovakia––––––––––6,8228,050
Denmark 2562923614766127881,0951,5442,0312,4212,8932,893
2562953704205506708601,1101,3951,6701,9103,339
France 8,58210,33511,87013,32616,80017,38119,75823,50026,86927,40136,26239,284
Germany7,2358,32010,39512,77116,69719,99326,45435,80045,52349,76045,00277,178
Greece–2002202503654406407809101,5402,3404,200
Hungary––––––––––3,0254,137
Ireland––––––––––1,8621,907
Italy7,5708,9518,66610,46611,27311,74512,43514,82015,59817,62419,51024,701
Netherlands9131,1051,3181,5021,8232,1882,6603,1644,1504,6606,6967,987
Norway3163784906427288861,0411,2861,6011,8342,3703,812
Poland––––––––––7,32512,885
Portugal8609459851,1001,1751,2701,3601,5501,7101,8002,0462,634
Romania––7608369501,1001,3501,7002,1252,4505,1236,780
Russia/USSR10,550 11,20012,70014,40022,92023,25021,18032,00043,83052,42032,60075,964
Serbia–––320345382432560700725––
Spain3,6004,1504,7005,4005,3005,4005,6756,5007,3337,4509,4988,511
Sweden5576177298601,0251,3851,7002,3583,2613,8244,6276,908
Switzerland5807009301,2001,4601,9202,1002,5993,3553,7004,3005,063
United Kingdom8,245 10,43112,59116,07219,62823,55129,44136,27340,62344,07443,70056,103
Yugoslavia––––––––––3,8705,221
Europe58,15266,99777,93791,073114,966126,975146,723188,534231,550256,845257,434376,947
Western Europe38,910––63,670–––126,900-163,780179,830231,560
Eastern Europe19,240––27,400–––61,640–93,06077,600145,390
Country / Region183018401850186018701880189019001910191319251938

1500–1870 (Lo Cascio/Malanima)

The following estimates are taken from a revision of Angus Maddison's numbers for the whole of Europe by the Italian economists Elio Lo Cascio and Paolo Malanima.[14] According to their calculations, the basic level of European GDP (PPP) was historically higher, but its increase was less pronounced.

YearGDP (PPP) in millions of 1990 International Dollars
1500 111,680
1600 133,760
1700 159,440
1750 205,530
1800 253,900
1870619,970

Empires

Indian empires (1–1947 CE)

See also: Economic history of India, Economy of India under the British Raj and Historic GDP Estimates for South Asia.

Angus Maddison's below GDP estimates for Indian subcontinent (including modern Pakistan and Bangladesh) refer to the following empires:[4]

^ At year 1, year 1000, year 1500 and till the start of British colonisation in India in 17th century, India's GDP always varied between ~22 - 33% world's total GDP and was the largest economy in the world from year 1 until year 1500,[4] which dropped to 2% by Independence of India in 1947.[15] At the same time, the Britain's share of the world economy rose from 2.9% in 1700 up to 9% in 1870 alone.[16] [17] [18]

GDP (in 2023 international dollars[19]
YearIndian subcontinentPer Capita Avg GDP growth rateGDP (% World)PopulationPopulation (% World)
1 33,750,000,000 450– 32.0 70,000,000 32.5
1000 33,750,000,000 4500.0% 28.0 72,500,000 28
1500 60,500,000,000 5500.117% 24.4 79,000,000 25.1
1600 74,250,000,000 5500.205% 22.4 100,000,000 24.3
1700 90,750,000,000 5500.201% 24.4 165,000,000 27.36
1820 111,417,000,000 5330.171% 16 209,000,000 20.1
1870 134,882,000,000 5330.975% 12.1 253,000,000 19.9
1913 204,242,000,000 5990.965% 7.5 303,700,000 17
1950 30,600,000,000 6190.23% 4.2 359,000,000 14.2

Chinese empires

Angus Maddison's below GDP estimates for China refer to the following empires:[4]

GDP in 2023 international dollars
YearChinese regionper capita Avg GDP growth rateGDP (% World)PopulationPopulation (% World)Period
1600 96,000,000,000 600 0.44% 28.95 160,000,000 28.77 Ming dynasty
1700 82,800,000,000 600 -0.15% 22.29 138,000,000 22.87 Qing dynasty
1820 228,600,000,000 600 0.85% 32.91 381,000,000 36.57
1870 189,740,000,000 530 -0.37% 17.08 358,000,000 28.06
1913 241,431,000,000 552 0.56% 8.83 437,140,000 24.38 Republic of China

British Empire and India

Goedele De Keersmaeker estimated the GDP of the British Empire using Angus Maddison's data. Keersmaeker estimated that the British Empire's share of world GDP was 24.28% in 1870 and 19.7% in 1913. The empire's largest economy in 1870 was British India with a 12.15% share of world GDP, followed by the United Kingdom with a 9.03% share. The empire's largest economy in 1913 was the United Kingdom with an 8.22% share of world GDP, followed by British India with a 7.47% share.[20]

Roman Empire

See also: Roman economy and Byzantine economy.

Much work in estimating past GDP has been done in the study of the Roman economy, following the pioneering studies by Keith Hopkins (1980) and Raymond Goldsmith (1984).[21] The estimates by Peter Temin, Angus Maddison, Branko Milanović and Peter Fibiger Bang follow the basic method established by Goldsmith, varying mainly only in their set of initial numbers; these are then stepped up to estimations of the expenditure checked by those on the income side. Walter Scheidel/Steven Friesen determine GDP on the relationship between certain significant economic indicators which were historically found to be plausible; two independent control assumptions provide the upper and lower limit of the probable size of the Roman GDP.[22]

B Decimal fractions rounded to the nearest tenth. Italic numbers not directly given by the authors; they are obtained by multiplying the respective value of GDP per capita by estimated population size.

The GDP per capita of the Byzantine Empire, the continuation of the Roman Empire in the east, has been estimated by the World Bank economist Branko Milanović to range between $680 and 770 (in 1990 International Dollars) at its peak around 1000 AD, that is the reign of Basil II.[23] The Byzantine population size at the time is estimated to have been 12 to 18 million.[24] This would yield a total GDP somewhere between $8,160 and 13,860 million.

GDP in 2023 international dollars
YearRoman/Byzantine Empireper capita GDP (% World)PopulationPopulation (% World)
14 25,100,000,000 570 24 44,000,000 20
1000 8,160,000,000 680 6.8 12,000,000 4.5

See also

References

Bibliography

GDP of the Roman Empire
Lindert, Peter H.; Williamson, Jeffrey G. (Oct. 2007): "Measuring Ancient Inequality’, NBER Working Paper 13550, pp. 58–66
Friesen, Steven J. (Nov. 2009): "The Size of the Economy and the Distribution of Income in the Roman Empire", The Journal of Roman Studies, Vol. 99, pp. 61–91
GDP of the Byzantine Empire
European GDP per capita
Angus Maddison — reviews and revisions
Malanima, Paolo (Dec. 2009): "GDP in Pre-Modern Agrarian Economies (1–1820 AD). A Revision of the Estimates", Rivista di storia economica, Vol. 25, No. 3, pp. 391–420 — critique of Maddison's estimates

External links

Notes and References

  1. Milanovic 2006, p. 460, 468:
  2. Bairoch 1976, p. 282
  3. Book: Economics and World History: Myths and Paradoxes. Paul Bairoch. Paul Bairoch. University of Chicago Press. 1995. 95.
  4. Maddison 2007, p. 379, table A.4.
  5. Web site: Cox. Wendell. New Geography . 21 September 2015. 500 YEARS OF GDP: A TALE OF TWO COUNTRIES . 4 September 2020.
  6. Haig, Bryan. 2005. "Review of The World Economy: Historical Statistics by Angus Maddison," Economic Reports, volume 81.
  7. [W. W. Rostow|Rostow, W. W.]
  8. MacPherson, W. J. "Reviewed Work(s): Class Structure and Economic Growth. India and Pakistan since the Moghuls by Angus Maddison." The Economic Journal, Vol. 82, No. 328. (Dec., 1972), pp. 1470-1472.
  9. Federico 2002, pp. 111–120
  10. Lo Cascio, Malanima Dec. 2009, pp. 391–420
  11. News: China's magnificent historic past . BBC News . 2005-03-10 . 2010-05-08.
  12. Bairoch 1976, pp. 281, table 4; 295, table 10
  13. The border between "Western Europe" and "Eastern Europe" as defined by Bairoch corresponds to the Iron Curtain, with "Eastern Europe" being identical to the Eastern Bloc (Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, the German Democratic Republic, Hungary, Romania, Poland, and the USSR plus Albania). All the rest of Europe makes up "Western Europe" (Bairoch 1976, pp. 317, 319).
  14. Lo Cascio, Malanima Dec. 2009, p. 411, table 6
  15. Web site: India's Deindustrialization in the 18th and 19th Centuries. Jeffrey G. Williamson, David Clingingsmith. Harvard University. August 2005. 18 May 2017.
  16. Book: The Process of Economic Development. James Cypher. 2014. Routledge. 9781136168284.
  17. Web site: Broadberry. Stephen. Gupta. Bishnupriya. Cotton textiles and the great divergence: Lancashire, India and shifting competitive advantage, 1600–1850. 2005. International Institute of Social History. Department of Economics, University of Warwick. 5 December 2016.
  18. Book: Economics and World History: Myths and Paradoxes. Paul Bairoch. University of Chicago Press. 1995. 89. Paul Bairoch.
  19. Book: Maddinson, Angus . HS-8: The World Economy 1-2001 AD . OECD . 2001 . 241, 243, 261, 263, 264.
  20. Goedele De Keersmaeker (2017), Polarity, Balance of Power and International Relations Theory: Post-Cold War and the 19th Century Compared, page 90, Springer Science+Business Media
  21. Scheidel, Walter; Morris, Ian; Saller, Richard, eds. (2007): The Cambridge Economic History of the Greco-Roman World, Cambridge University Press,
  22. Scheidel, Friesen Nov. 2009, pp. 63–72
  23. Milanovic 2006, p. 468
  24. Milanovic 2006, p. 461

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