List of countries by rate of natural increase explained

This article contains a list of countries by rate of natural increase.

Methodology

The rate of natural increase (RNI) is defined as the birth rate minus the death rate. It is typically expressed either as a number per 1,000 individuals in the population or as a percentage. RNI can be either positive or negative. It contrasts to total population change by ignoring net migration.

Countries and subnational areas

The birth rates[1] and death rates[2] in columns one and two are the CIA World Factbook estimates for the year 2022 unless otherwise noted, rounded to the nearest tenth (except for Mayotte and the Falkland Islands with 2010 and 2012 estimates respectively). The natural increase rate in column three is calculated from the rounded values of columns one and two. Rates are the average annual number of births or deaths during a year per 1,000 persons; these are also known as crude birth or death rates.

Column four is from the UN Population Division [3] and shows a projection for the average natural increase rate for the time period shown using the medium fertility variant. Blank cells in column four indicate lack of data.

List of countries and subnational areas by rate of natural increase! Location! Crude birth rate! Crude death rate! Natural increase rate! Natural increase rate (2015–20)[4]
47.1 9.9 37.2 37.9
40.9 5.0 35.9 31.8
41.8 8.0 33.8 32.6
41.2 8.0 33.2 27.4
41.1 8.5 32.6 32.0
40.1 7.9 32.2 31.8
(France)38.76[5] 7.05 31.71 25.6
40.5 9.5 31.0 30.2
36.6 6.6 30.0 25.6
35.2 6.0 29.2 31.2
36.5 7.5 29.0 25.7
34.9 6.1 28.8 29.7
33.3 5.1 28.2 30.4
37.7 9.5 28.2 24.6
35.5 7.7 27.8 26.3
35.7 8.1 27.6 26.0
37.5 10.3 27.2 29.1
33.5 6.3 27.2 25.1
31.9 5.3 26.6 24.8
31.5 5.1 26.4 28.9
38.0 11.6 26.4 30.9
33.6 7.7 25.9 29.9
34.2 8.7 25.5 26.1
30.9 5.6 25.3
30.5 5.7 24.8 25.9
27.7 2.9 24.8
33.1 8.8 24.3 22.8
29.0 5.5 23.5 19.8
31.8 8.4 23.4 26.3
27.9 4.6 23.3 27.5
35.5 12.3 23.2 26.3
28.8 5.8 23.0 30.8
32.2 9.3 22.9 21.8
28.7 6.0 22.7 26.7
28.6 6.1 22.5 22.2
28.2 6.2 22.0 26.9
26.4 5.0 21.4 23.4
32.8 11.8 21.0 23.0
24.4 3.4 21.0
30.0 9.0 21.0 24.0
24.7 3.9 20.8 24.3
28.3 7.6 20.7 25.7
28.1 7.4 20.7 26.6
26.4 5.9 20.5 26.8
26.5 6.0 20.5 21.5
26.0 5.7 20.3 25.1
27.0 6.7 20.3 23.4
22.6 3.5 19.1 18.2
24.6 5.6 19.0 24.7
22.1 3.2 18.9 17.2
22.7 4.0 18.7 28.5
22.7 4.2 18.5
25.0 6.9 18.1 20.6
21.6 3.5 18.1 13.9
22.0 4.3 17.7
21.6 4.0 17.6 24.5
22.3 4.9 17.4 20.0
21.3 3.9 17.4 16.8
21.5 4.3 17.2 20.7
22.5 6.6 15.9 24.8
22.3 6.4 15.9 14.7
17.8 2.3 15.5 11.7
20.3 5.0 15.3 17.3
22.3 7.1 15.2 14.6
20.7 5.7 15.0 26.3
21.1 6.3 14.8
22.7 8.0 14.7
20.9 6.4 14.5
18.5 4.3 14.2 20.0
18.4 4.2 14.2 16.3
21.1 7.2 13.9 16.0
19.2 5.4 13.8 19.3
23.4 9.7 13.7 10.8
19.3 5.8 13.5 16.7
19.5 6.1 13.4 18.7
17.9 4.7 13.2 17.4
20.1 6.9 13.2 21.7
18.5 5.8 12.7
(US) 18.6 6.0 12.6 11.4
17.4 5.1 12.3 15.1
16.1 3.8 12.3 10.6
17.7 5.5 12.2 12.8
18.6 6.5 12.1 15.1
23.2 11.1 12.1 12.7
17.9 5.9 12.0 11.4
17.5 5.6 11.9 13.6
18.0 6.1 11.9 14.0
18.0 6.3 11.7 13.6
17.5 6.0 11.5 16.9
16.3 4.9 11.4 15.2
15.5 4.2 11.3 11.6
16.5 5.2 11.3 15.8
16.5 5.2 11.3 14.8
20.3 9.1 11.2 19.3
17.4 6.6 10.8 14.0
14.2 3.4 10.8 15.5
(US) 16.7 6.1 10.6
17.3 6.8 10.5 11.1
16.6 6.4 10.2 13.3
15.5 5.4 10.1 16.0
15.3 5.2 10.1 14.2
(US) 15.5 5.4 10.1
(UK) 13.5 3.5 10.0
15.7 5.8 9.9 10.7
16.7 6.9 9.8 12.6
15.9 6.2 9.7 11.2
12.4 2.8 9.6 11.8
15.8 6.3 9.5 18.1
15.2 5.7 9.5 9.1
(France) 14.1 4.6 9.5
14.3 4.9 9.4 9.1
18.6 9.3 9.3 11.1
10.8 1.6 9.2 8.9
16.3 7.1 9.2 9.5
14.6 5.7 8.9 11.8
15.4 6.6 8.8 11.3
15.3 6.8 8.5 11.8
15.9 7.4 8.5 8.7
15.6 7.3 8.3 9.5
14.6 6.4 8.2 11.5
(France) 14.1 5.9 8.2 8.6
(UK) 14.6 6.4 8.2 7.3
14.3 6.1 8.2 10.8
9.3 1.4 7.9 8.5
(France) 13.5 5.6 7.9 9.2
13.1 5.6 7.5 13.3
15.2 7.7 7.5 9.5
(UK) 12.0 4.6 7.4
13.8 6.5 7.3 9.4
15.4 8.1 7.3 14.2
14.0 6.8 7.2 7.7
14.9 8.1 6.8
13.6 6.9 6.7 8.7
16.8 10.3 6.5 11.7
(Netherlands) 12.6 6.1 6.5
(France) 12.3 5.8 6.5
13.0 6.6 6.4 5.4
(Denmark) 14.9 8.6 6.3
12.8 6.5 6.3 6.3
(UK) [6] 10.9 4.9 6.0
17.2 11.3 5.9 12.6
12.8 6.9 5.9 5.7
13.6 7.7 5.911.8
13.9 8.1 5.8
(UK) 11.7 6.0 5.7
13.9 8.3 5.6
12.3 6.7 5.6 7.0
(UK) 11.0 5.4 5.6
12.3 6.8 5.5 6.3
12.4 6.9 5.5 9.0
12.7 7.3 5.4 4.0
(UK) 13.9 8.8 5.1
9.1 4.0 5.1 4.3
10.9 5.9 5.0
12.2 7.3 4.9
(Denmark)13.8 9.0 4.8
12.3 7.5 4.8
14.2 9.5 4.7
12.4 7.8 4.6
(Netherlands)13.2 8.7 4.5
11.6 7.2 4.4 3.5
(China) 9.1 4.7 4.4
12.0 8.0 4.0 3.1
12.0 8.1 3.9 5.0
12.3 8.4 3.9 3.3
10.6 6.9 3.7 3.6
12.7 9.2 3.5 4.5
(New Zealand)12.6 9.1 3.5
11.5 8.3 3.2
11.8 8.6 3.2 2.7
10.8 8.0 2.8 3.1
11.6 8.8 2.8 3.3
10.8 8.4 2.4 4.8
10.1 7.8 2.3 2.9
10.3 8.0 2.3
11.7 9.5 2.2 2.0
10.2 8.1 2.1 2.7
9.9 7.9 2.0 4.8
10.4 8.4 2.0 2.3
(UK) 11.0 9.1 1.9
11.0 9.2 1.8 1.4
10.8 9.1 1.7 2.2
11.2 9.5 1.7 1.0
11.1 9.5 1.6 4.3
10.8 9.5 1.3 2.7
11.0 9.6 1.4 1.1
(UK) 9.3 8.1 1.2
9.7 8.5 1.2 1.0
9.9 8.9 1.0 1.9
11.2 10.3 0.9 1.1
10.5 9.6 0.9 1.3
10.1 9.3 0.8 1.3
(UK) 9.8 9.2 0.6
(UK) 10.6 10.2 0.4
(France) 9.3 9.0 0.3
11.0 10.8 0.2 0.7
8.9 8.8 0.1
10.4 10.4 0.0 0.4
(China) 8.0 8.0 0.0 4.5
6.9 7.1 -0.2 1.5
9.5 9.9 -0.4 0.1
7.4 7.9 -0.5 0.9
6.9 7.9 -1.0
8.9 10.1 -1.2 0.6
8.4 10.3 -1.9 -2.4
7.9 9.8 -1.9 -2.0
8.3 10.4 -2.1 -0.2
8.6 10.7 -2.1
8.5 10.7 -2.2 -0.2
10.2 12.5 -2.3 -1.5
9.1 12.0 -2.9 -1.7
8.0 10.9 -2.9 -2.8
7.1 10.2 -3.1 -0.5
9.1 12.9 -3.8 -0.7
9.5 13.4 -3.9 0.1
6.7 10.7 -4.0
8.7 12.9 -4.2
8.7 12.9 -4.2 -3.0
8.8 13.1 -4.3 -1.3
7.0 11.3 -4.3 -2.8
7.6 12.0 -4.4 -3.0
7.0 11.6 -4.6 -2.9
(France) 6.5 11.2 -4.7
9.0 13.8 -4.8 -5.6
9.3 15.1 -5.8 -3.2
8.7 14.7 -6.0 -3.8
8.1 14.4 -6.3 -6.4
8.8 15.3 -6.5 -3.2
9.4 16.4 -7.0 -4.9

Summary by region

The table below assembles history and projections for the major regions shown. The numbers show total births minus total deaths per 1,000 population for the region for each time period. The first four columns show actual rate of natural increase. The remaining columns show projections using the medium fertility variant. All numbers are from the UN Population Division.

Region1950–551970–751990–952010–152015–202025–302035–402045–50
World+17.8+19.5+15.2+11.9+10.9+8.7+7.0+5.6
Africa+21.5+27.4+26.1+26.4+25.3+22.8+20.6+18.1
Asia+19.3+22.8+16.4+10.7+9.3+6.3+3.8+1.8
Europe+10.3+5.5+0.3−0.1−0.7−2.1−2.8−3.2
Latin America & The Caribbean+27.1+25.8+19.0+11.9+10.4+7.5+4.9+2.8
Northern America+14.9+6.4+6.6+4.2+4.2+3.5+2.0+1.1
Oceania+15.7+14.5+12.2+10.5+9.7+8.0+6.4+5.3

See also

Notes and References

  1. Web site: The World Factbook — Central Intelligence Agency. https://web.archive.org/web/20221102123201/https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/field/birth-rate/country-comparison. November 2, 2022. www.cia.gov.
  2. Web site: The World Factbook — Central Intelligence Agency. https://web.archive.org/web/20221027182102/https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/field/death-rate/country-comparison/. October 27, 2022. www.cia.gov.
  3. Web site: World Population Prospects 2019. United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs.
  4. Web site: "United Nations Population Div, World Population Prospects 2017, File: Rate of Natural Population Growth Rate. https://web.archive.org/web/20160927210437/https://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Download/Standard/Population/. 27 September 2016. 23 June 2018. dead.
  5. 2010 estimate
  6. 2012 estimate

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