Immigration and crime explained

Crime has been committed by immigrants, and people have sought to study the relationship between immigration and crime. This has controversially long been a subject of debate, and recently systematic empirical evidence on this issue has been brought to light that has encouraged political discourse on the matter.^[1]

Immigrants are disproportionately represented in the prison populations of many Western countries, with the notable exception of the United States.^[2] Muslim immigrants, along with Muslims in general, are overrepresented in prison populations of Europe, including the UK, France and Germany,^{[3] [4] [5]} and Muslims are also disproportionately overrepresented in Indian prisons with Muslim immigrants being the primary source of illegal immigration.^{[6] [7]} Israel also has a sizable overrepresentation of Palestinian and Arab prisoners.^[8]

Some scholars argue that data of crime rates among immigrants is often inflated because it includes imprisonment for migration offenses or due to racial and ethnic discrimination by police and the judicial system, which can result in higher conviction rates for immigrants relative to the actual number of crimes committed.^{[9] [10]} Research suggests that people overestimate the impact of immigration on crime, in part due to sensational media coverage or narratives pushed by politicians. This fear of crime can lead to increases in hate crimes against immigrants, as well as harsher immigration policies like family separation.^[11]

International

Research relating to immigration and crime has been described both as generally not finding a causal link and as showing mixed results.^[12] Most studies fail to show any causal effect of immigration on overall crime rates in most circumstances. Other studies have found that immigration increases crime under certain circumstances, such as if immigrants have poor prospects in the labor market or labor restrictions.

Some factors may affect the reliability of data on suspect rates, crime rates, conviction rates and prison populations for drawing conclusions about immigrants' overall involvement in criminal activity:

• Police practices, such as racial profiling, over-policing in areas populated by immigrants or in-group bias may result in disproportionately high numbers of immigrants among crime suspects.^{[9] [13] [14] [15]}
• Possible discrimination by the judicial system may result in higher number of convictions.^{[16] [17] [18] [19]}
• Unfavorable bail and sentencing decisions due to foreigners' ease of flight, lack of domiciles, lack of regular employment and lack of family able to host the individual can explain immigrants' higher incarceration rates when compared to their share of convictions relative to the native population.
• Non-immigrants may be more likely to report crimes when they believe the offender has an immigrant background.^[20]
• Imprisonment for migration offenses, which are more common among immigrants without a residence permit in their host country, would need to be excluded from the analysis of crime statistics for meaningful comparisons between overall immigrant and native criminal involvement.^{[21] [22]}
• Foreigners imprisoned for drug offenses may not actually live in the country where they are serving sentences but were arrested while in transit.
• Crimes by short-term migrants, such as tourists, exchange students and transient workers, are in some cases counted as crimes by immigrants or foreigners, and gives the impression that a higher share of the migrant population commits crimes (as these short-term migrants are not counted among the foreign-born population).
• Some immigrants might disproportionately locate in deprived areas where crime is higher (because they cannot afford to stay in more expensive areas) or because they tend to locate in areas where there is a large population of residents of the same ethnic background. Some research suggests that the allocation of refugee immigrants to high crime neighborhoods increases individual crime propensity later in life due to social interaction with criminals.^[23]
• Granting legal to undocumented immigrants might reduce crime rates among that population due to factors like greater job market opportunities for the legal immigrants. Some scholars suggested the relationship between crime and the legal status of immigrants was understudied.^{[24] [25]}
• Demographic characteristics like being young, male, and poorly-educated can increase the likelihood of imprisonment among immigrants.
• Immigrants could become substitutes for natives in crime markets, resulting in no change to the overall amount of crime taking place.
• "Irregular aliens (that is, those not officially registered by the appropriate process in that nation) would be counted in the share of immigrants in the prison population, but not in the share of immigrants in the resident population."

Trends

According to migration scientist Hein de Haas in 2023, violent crime is decreasing in almost the entire Western world, and studies show that migrants are less criminal than the average, because "first-generation migrants are often people who want to build a new future". De Haas noted an overrepresentation of certain immigrant groups in crime statistics, which he attributed to ethnic profiling and some second-generation immigrants who have no future prospects.^[26]

According to a 2024 article migrants in 30 countries, many (though not the United States, UK, Australia or New Zealand) have higher share of prison populations compared to native-born populations. Among immigrants, younger and less-educated men, as well as those with undocumented or irregular legal status, have a higher propensity to commit crimes compared to those with documented status.

Terrorism

As of 2020, the relationship between immigration and terrorism was inconclusive.^[27] A 2016 study finds that migrants from terror-prone states increase the risk of terrorism in the host country, but when immigration is not necessarily linked to terrorism in the migrants' countries of origin, immigration is associated with a lower level of terrorism in the host country.^[28] The authors note that "only a minority of migrants from high-terrorism states can be associated with increases in terrorism, and not necessarily in a direct way."

A paper by a group of German political scientists and economists, covering 1980–2010, found that on average, the foreigners were not more likely to become terrorists than the natives.^{[29] [30]} The study also found little evidence that terrorism is systematically imported from predominantly Muslim countries, the exceptions being Algeria and Iran.^[31] High-skilled migrants are associated with a significantly lower risk of terror compared to low-skilled ones, while there is no significant difference between male and female migrants. The study found a risk trade-off: increased immigration laws could decrease the influx of migrants and therefore the potential number of future terrorist attacks, but diminished acceptance by the host country of the migrants increased the terror risk of those already in the country. Research focusing on the security impact of the European migrant crisis found little to no relationship between increasing migration flows and acts of terrorism.^{[32] [33]}

According to Olivier Roy in 2017 analyzing the previous two decades of terrorism in France, the typical jihadist is a second-generation immigrant or convert who after a period of petty crime was radicalized in prison.^[34] Georgetown University terrorism expert Daniel Byman agree with Olivier Roy that repression of minority groups, such as Muslims, makes it easier for terrorist organizations to recruit from those minority groups.^[35] Roy has argued that the burkini bans and secularist policies of France provoked religious violence in France, which French scholar Gilles Kepel disputed saying that Britain did not have those policies and still suffered several jihadist attacks in 2017.^{[36] [37]}

Asia

Japan

A survey of existing research on immigration and crime in Japan found that "prosecution and sentencing in Japan do seem to result in some disparities by nationality, but the available data are too limited to arrive at confident conclusions about their nature or magnitude".^[38] According to a 1997 news report, a large portion of crimes by immigrants are by Chinese in Japan, and some highly publicized crimes by organized groups of Chinese (often with help of Japanese organized crime) have led to a negative public perception of immigrants.^[39] According to the National Police Agency in 2015, Vietnamese nationals overtook Chinese as having the highest number of criminal offenses for foreigners.^[40] The number of offenses has reportedly been on the rise as of 2021,^[41] and has been linked to the lower economic status of Vietnamese in Japan.^[42]

Malaysia

A 2017 study found that immigration to Malaysia decreases property crime rates and violent crime rates.^[43] In the case of property crime rates, this is in part because immigrants improve economic conditions for natives.

Europe

Most studies fail to show any causal effect of immigration on overall crime rates. A 2015 study found that the increase in immigration flows into western European countries that took place in the 2000s did "not affect crime victimization, but it is associated with an increase in the fear of crime, the latter being consistently and positively correlated with the natives' unfavourable attitude toward immigrants." In a survey of the existing economic literature on immigration and crime, one economist describes the existing literature in 2014 as showing that "the results for Europe are mixed for property crime but no association is found for violent crime".

Denmark

Notes and References

1. Marie . Olivier . Pinotti . Paolo . March 2024 . Immigration and Crime: An International Perspective . Journal of Economic Perspectives . en . 38 . 1 . 181–200 . 10.1257/jep.38.1.181 . 0895-3309.
2. Cohn . Ellen G. . Coccia . Mario . Kakar . Suman . Disparate incarceration rates of foreign citizens in Europe compared to Anglo-Saxon countries . Sociology Compass . 18 . 1 . 2024 . 1751-9020 . 10.1111/soc4.13167 . The principal findings suggest, in most European countries, a significantly higher rate of foreign citizens held in prison compared to non‐immigrants..
3. Web site: 2017-09-09 . Let me take a wild guess as to why Muslims are overrepresented in prison . 2024-11-01 . The Independent . en.
4. Web site: Are 70% of France’s prison inmates Muslims? . 2024-11-01 . Adam Smith Institute . en-GB.
5. Web site: Kern . Soeren . Germany: Number of Foreign-Born Prison Inmates at Record High . 2024-11-01 . Soeren Kern . en.
6. News: Nihalani . Vignesh Radhakrishnan & Jasmin . 2022-09-13 . Over 30% of detainees in Indian prisons are Muslims, double their share in population . 2024-11-01 . The Hindu . en-IN . 0971-751X.
7. Web site: Samuel . Sigal . 2019-09-17 . India’s massive, scary new detention camps, explained . 2024-11-01 . Vox . en-US.
8. Web site: 2023-11-29 . Why Does Israel Have So Many Palestinians in Detention and Available to Swap? Human Rights Watch . 2024-11-01 . en.
9. Book: Crocitti, Stefania . Immigration, Crime, and Criminalization in Italy – Oxford Handbooks . 2014 . 10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199859016.013.029.
10. West . Jeremy . February 2018 . Racial Bias in Police Investigations . live . Working Paper . https://web.archive.org/web/20190323090110/https://people.ucsc.edu/~jwest1/articles/West_RacialBiasPolice.pdf . 23 March 2019 . 16 March 2018.
11. Web site: Ajzenman . Nicolas . 2023-01-29 . Migrants don't cause crime rates to increase — but false perceptions endure anyway . 2024-08-05 . The Conversation . en-US . Although most research shows immigration has either no impact or a minimal impact on crime, many people seem to believe the connection exists. It seems hostility against immigrants isn’t crime itself but false perceptions about crime..
12. Lange . Martin . Sommerfeld . Katrin . 2024 . Do refugees impact crime? Causal evidence from large-scale refugee immigration to Germany . Labour Economics . Elsevier BV . 86 . 102466 . 10.1016/j.labeco.2023.102466 . 0927-5371 . Previous studies about the effect of immigration on crime show mixed results. Part of the literature finds the effects of immigration on crime in host countries to be close to zero in general ... Other studies tend to conclude that immigration increases crime under certain circumstances, particularly if immigrants have poor prospects on the labor market or if they face labor market restrictions..
13. Crime as a Price of Inequality? The Gap in Registered Crime between Childhood Immigrants, Children of Immigrants and Children of Native Swedes . British Journal of Criminology. 2013-05-01. 0007-0955. 456–481. 53. 3. 10.1093/bjc/azt005. Martin. Hällsten. Ryszard. Szulkin. Jerzy. Sarnecki.
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16. Do Judges Vary in Their Treatment of Race?. The Journal of Legal Studies. 2012-06-01. 0047-2530. 347–383. 41. 2. 10.1086/666006. David S.. Abrams. Marianne. Bertrand. Sendhil. Mullainathan. 2338687. 18 August 2019. 13 November 2019. https://web.archive.org/web/20191113123439/http://scholarship.law.upenn.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1354&context=faculty_scholarship. live.
17. Racial, Ethnic, and Gender Disparities in Sentencing: Evidence from the U.S. Federal Courts . The Journal of Law and Economics. 2001-04-01. 0022-2186. 285–314. 44. 1. 10.1086/320276. David B.. Mustard. 154533225.
18. The Impact of Jury Race in Criminal Trials . The Quarterly Journal of Economics. 2012-05-01. 0033-5533. 1017–1055. 127. 2. 10.1093/qje/qjs014. en. Shamena. Anwar. Patrick. Bayer. Randi. Hjalmarsson. free.
19. Effects of Defendant Ethnicity on Juries' Dispositions of Felony Cases . Journal of Applied Social Psychology. 1999-02-01. 1559-1816. 317–336. 29. 2. 10.1111/j.1559-1816.1999.tb01389.x. en. Howard C.. Daudistel. Harmon M.. Hosch. Malcolm D.. Holmes. Joseph B.. Graves.
20. Web site: Diskrimineras invandrarna i anmälningar av brott?. 2009. Dahlbäck. Olof. 31 January 2016. 31 January 2016. https://web.archive.org/web/20160131153955/http://www.sociology.su.se/polopoly_fs/1.18650.1320939631!/rapport.pdf. live.
21. Web site: 2015 . Indvandrere i Danmark . Immigrants in Denmark . live . https://web.archive.org/web/20160215235233/http://www.dst.dk/Site/Dst/Udgivelser/GetPubFile.aspx?id=20703&sid=indv2015 . 15 February 2016 . 10 February 2016 . Statistics Denmark . da.
22. Book: Aliverti, Ana. Crimes of Mobility: Criminal Law and the Regulation of Immigration. 2013. hardback. Routledge. 978-0-415-82090-5. 2016-03-04. 11 March 2016. https://web.archive.org/web/20160311191830/https://www.routledge.com/products/9780415820905. live.
23. Damm . Anna Piil . Dustmann . Christian . 2014 . Does Growing Up in a High Crime Neighborhood Affect Youth Criminal Behavior? . live . . 104 . 6 . 1806–1832 . 10.1257/aer.104.6.1806 . https://web.archive.org/web/20210224235641/https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10038985/ . 24 February 2021 . 18 August 2019 . UCL Discovery.
24. Web site: Fasani . Francesco . October 2014 . Understanding the Role of Immigrants' Legal Status: Evidence from Policy Experiments . live . https://web.archive.org/web/20161022141050/http://www.iza.org/en/webcontent/publications/papers/viewAbstract?dp_id=8576 . 22 October 2016 . 2016-01-29 . CESifo Economic Studies.
25. Piopiunik . Marc . Ruhose . Jens . 2017 . Immigration, regional conditions, and crime: evidence from an allocation policy in Germany . live . European Economic Review . 92 . 258–282 . 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2016.12.004 . 13225249 . https://web.archive.org/web/20221207020708/http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bvb:19-epub-24468-9 . 7 December 2022 . 18 August 2019.
26. News: Migratiewetenschapper Hein de Haas: 'Er is helemaal geen explosieve toename van migratie'. Amnesty . 15 November 2023. nl . Another myth: immigration increases crime. No, says De Haas. 'Violent crime is decreasing in almost the entire Western world. In addition, studies show that migrants are actually less criminal on average. This is because first-generation migrants are often people who want to build a new future. There is certainly overrepresentation of certain groups in crime statistics, but in addition to ethnic profiling, this is mainly a story of some members of the second generation who have no future prospects.'.
27. Helbling . Marc . Meierrieks . Daniel . 2020 . Terrorism and Migration: An Overview . . en . 52 . 2 . 977–996 . 10.1017/S0007123420000587 . 0007-1234 . 1) there is little evidence that more migration unconditionally leads to more terrorist activity, especially in Western countries... (3) the effectiveness of stricter migration policies in deterring terrorism is rather limited . free.
28. Bove . Vincenzo . Böhmelt . Tobias . 2016-02-11 . Does Immigration Induce Terrorism? . live . . 78 . 2 . 572–588 . 10.1086/684679 . 0022-3816 . 51947927 . https://web.archive.org/web/20220409014930/http://repository.essex.ac.uk/17112/1/Bove%20Bohmelt%20JoP.pdf . 9 April 2022 . 18 August 2019.
29. Web site: Dreher . Axel . Gassebner . Martin . Schaudt . Paul . 26 May 2017 . The Effect of Migration on Terror – Made at Home or Imported from Abroad? . live . https://web.archive.org/web/20220801031916/https://cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=12062 . 1 August 2022 . 2017-08-15 . . en . Discussion Paper 12062.
30. Web site: Dreher . Axel . Gassebner . Martin . Schaudt . Paul . 2017-08-12 . Migration and terror . live . https://web.archive.org/web/20170815234719/http://voxeu.org/article/migration-and-terror . 15 August 2017 . 2017-08-15 . VoxEU.org.
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35. News: Byman . Daniel . 2017-01-30 . Why Trump's Policies Will Increase Terrorism – and Why Trump Might Benefit as a Result . live . https://web.archive.org/web/20240113183057/https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/why-trumps-policies-will-increase-terrorism%E2%80%94and-why-trump-might-benefit-result . 13 January 2024 . 2017-08-15 . Lawfare . en.
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37. News: London Gave Shelter to Radical Islam and Now It's Paying the Price, French Terrorism Expert Says. Lerner. Davide. 2017-06-14. Haaretz. 2018-06-09. en. 4 May 2022. https://web.archive.org/web/20220504200920/https://www.haaretz.com/world-news/europe/london-gave-shelter-to-radical-islam-and-now-it-s-paying-the-price-1.5482356. live.
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