Economy of Tunisia explained

Country:Tunisia
Currency:Tunisian dinar (TND, د.ت)
Year:calendar year
Organs:African Union, AfCFTA (signed), WTO, COMESA, CEN-SAD, AMU
Group:
  • Developing/Emerging[1]
  • Lower-middle income economy[2]
Population: 12,352,187 (2023)[3]
Gdp:
  • $53.482 billion (nominal est, 2024)[4]
  • $178.928 billion (PPP, 2024)
Gdp Rank:
Growth:
  • 4.2% (2021f)[5]
Per Capita:
  • $4,136 (nominal, est, 2024)
  • $14,294 (PPP, 2024)
Per Capita Rank:
Sectors:
Inflation: 6.53% (2022 est.)[7]
Poverty:
  • 15.2% (2015)[8]
  • 17.5% on less than $5.50/day (2015)[9]
Gini:32.8 (2015)[10]
Hdi:
Labor:
  • 4,080,000 (Q2, 2022)[13]
  • 46% employment rate (Q2, 2022)[14]
Occupations:
Unemployment: 15.3% (Q2, 2022)
Youth Unemployment: 37.2% (Q2, 2022)
Average Net Salary:$360 monthly (2023)[15]
Industries:petroleum, mining (particularly phosphate, iron ore), tourism, textile, footwear, agriculture, beverages, olive oil
Edbr: 78th (easy, 2020)[16]
Exports: $19.06 billion USD (2019)[17]
Export-Goods:clothing, semi-finished goods and textiles, agricultural products, mechanical goods, phosphates and chemicals, hydrocarbons, electrical equipment
Export-Partners:
Imports: $21.57 billion USD (2019)[19]
Import-Goods:textiles, machinery and equipment, hydrocarbons, chemicals, foodstuffs
Import-Partners:
Current Account: −$2.690 billion (2019)
Fdi:
  • $37.95 billion (31 December 2017 est.)
  • Abroad: $285 million (31 December 2017 est.)
Gross External Debt: $30.19 billion (31 December 2017 est.)
Debt: 70.3% of GDP (2017 est.)
Revenue:10.957 billion (2022 est.)
Expenses:12.523 billion (2022 est.)
Balance:−5.8% (of GDP) (2017 est.)
Credit:
  • Standard & Poor's

    [20] [21]

  • BBB (Domestic)
  • BBB- (Foreign)
  • BBB (T&C Assessment)
  • Outlook: Negative
  • Moody's
  • Baa3
  • Outlook: Negative
  • Fitch
  • BBB
  • Outlook: Negative
Reserves: $8.5 billion (23 December 2023 est.)
Cianame:tunisia

The economy of Tunisia is in the process of being liberalized after decades of heavy state direction and participation in the country's economy. Prudent economic and fiscal planning has resulted in moderate but sustained growth for over a decade. Tunisia's economic growth historically has depended on oil, phosphates, agri-food products, car parts manufacturing, and tourism. In the World Economic Forum Global Competitiveness Report for 2015–2016, Tunisia ranks in 92nd place.[22]

The year 2015 was marked by terrorist attacks in Tunisia which are likely to affect economic growth, especially in tourism, one of the main sectors.[23]

Historical trend

GDP per capita soared by more than 380% in the seventies (1970–1980: USD 280–1,369). But this proved unsustainable and it collapsed to a cumulative 10% growth in the turbulent eighties (1980–1990: USD 1,369–1,507), rising again to almost 50% cumulative growth in the nineties (1990–2000: USD 1,507–2,245), signifying the impact of successful diversification.[24]

Growing foreign debt and the foreign exchange crisis in the mid-1980s led the government to launch a structural adjustment program to liberalize prices, reduce tariffs, and reorient Tunisia toward a market economy in 1986. Tunisia's economic reform program was lauded as a model by international financial institutions. The government liberalized prices, reduced tariffs, lowered debt-service-to-exports and debt-to-GDP ratios, and extended the average maturity of its $10 billion foreign debt. Structural adjustment brought additional lending from the World Bank and other Western creditors. In 1990, Tunisia acceded to the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) and is a member of the World Trade Organization (WTO).

In 1996 Tunisia entered into an "Association Agreement" with the European Union (EU) which removed tariffs and other trade barriers on most goods by 2008. In conjunction with the Association Agreement, the EU is assisting the Tunisian government's Mise A Niveau (upgrading) program to enhance the productivity of Tunisian businesses and prepare for competition in the global marketplace.

The government totally or partially privatized around 160 state-owned enterprises after the privatization program was launched in 1987. Although the program is supported by the GATT, the government had to move carefully to avoid mass firings. Unemployment continued to plague Tunisia's economy and was aggravated by a rapidly growing workforce. An estimated 55% of the population is under the age of 25. Officially, 15.2% of the Tunisian workforce is unemployed.

In 2011, after the Arab Spring, the economy slumped but then recovered with 2.81% GDP growth in 2014. However, unemployment is still one of the major issues with 15.2% of the labor force unemployed as of the first quarter of 2014. Tunisia's political transition gained new momentum in early 2014, with the resolution of a political deadlock, the adoption of a new Constitution and the appointment of a new government. The national dialogue platform, brokered by key civil society organizations, played a crucial role in gathering all major political parties. This consensus will allow for further reform in the economy and public sector.

In 2015, the Bardo National Museum attack led to the collapse of the third largest sector of Tunisia's economy;[25] tourism. Tunisian tourist workers in Tunis have said that "tourism is dead, it is completely dead", expressing the severe drop in tourism after the attack.[26]

The number of ragpickers in Tunisia is increasing due to the continuing high level of unemployment, the loss of purchasing power of the most disadvantaged families, and the explosion of plastic waste due to new consumption habits. Ragpickers do not benefit from social protection, granted to professions with a legal status and may be subject to the exploitation of the Recycling industry.[27]

The following table shows the main economic indicators in 1980–2017. Inflation under 5% is in green.[28]

YearGDP
(in Bil. US$ PPP)
GDP per capita
(in US$ PPP)
GDP(in bil. US$ nominal)GDP growth
(real)
Inflation rate
(in Percent)
Unemployment
(in Percent)
Government debt
(in % of GDP)
198013.62,1279.67.4%10.1%n/an/a
198115.82,3879.25.5%8.9%n/an/a
198216.62,4638.9−0.5%13.7%n/an/a
198318.02,6189.24.7%9.0%n/an/a
198419.72,8339.15.7%8.6%n/an/a
198521.52,9919.25.7%7.6%n/an/a
198621.62,8949.9−1.5%6.2%n/an/a
198723.73,10110.76.7%8.2%n/an/a
198824.53,15811.10.1%7.2%n/an/a
198926.13,30611.12.6%7.7%n/an/a
199029.03,56014.17.1%6.5%16.2%n/a
199131.23,75614.94.1%7.7%16.2%66.4%
199234.54,06517.88.0%5.5%16.2%65.2%
199336.24,22416.72.5%4.0%16.3%66.9%
199438.34,36217.93.6%5.4%16.3%67.0%
199540.24,48420.62.7%6.2%16.2%68.8%
199643.74,80822.36.9%3.7%16.1%70.1%
199747.05,10021.85.7%3.6%15.9%69.9%
199849.95,34222.95.0%3.1%16.1%61.0%
199953.75,67624.16.0%2.8%16.0%65.0%
200057.35,99322.54.3%2.8%15.7%65.9%
200161.46,36223.14.9%1.9%15.1%54.7%
200263.46,50324.31.7%1.9%15.3%54.2%
200368.26,93128.85.5%2.1%14.5%55.1%
200474.37,47632.76.0%2.5%14.2%54.1%
200579.77,94733.94.0%2.4%12.8%52.4%
200686.88,57036.15.7%3.2%12.5%47.8%
200794.79,26040.86.3%3.0%12.4%44.8%
2008100.89,76347.04.5%4.3%12.4%42.0%
2009104.810,03645.63.1%3.7%13.3%40.5%
2010108.810,31546.22.6%3.3%13.0%39.2%
2011108.910,20448.1−1.9%3.5%18.9%43.1%
2012115.210,69447.33.9%5.1%16.7%47.7%
2013120.011,02048.72.4%5.8%15.3%46.8%
2014124.911,35550.32.3%4.9%15.3%51.6%
2015127.611,48745.81.1%4.9%15.4%54.8%
2016130.511,44844.41.0%3.7%15.5%61.2%
2017135.411,75542.21.9%5.3%15.3%71.3%

External trade and investment

In 1992, Tunisia re-entered the private international capital market for the first time in 6 years, securing a $10-million line of credit for balance-of-payments support. In January 2003 Standard & Poor's affirmed its investment grade credit ratings for Tunisia. The World Economic Forum 2002-03 ranked Tunisia 34th in the Global Competitiveness Index Ratings (two places behind South Africa, the continent's leader). In April 2002, Tunisia's first US dollar-denominated sovereign bond issue since 1997 raised $458 million, with maturity in 2012.

The Bourse de Tunis is under the control of the state-run Financial Market Council and lists over 50 companies. The government offers substantial tax incentives to encourage companies to join the exchange, and expansion is occurring.

The Tunisian government adopted a unified investment code in 1993 to attract foreign capital. More than 1,600 export-oriented joint venture firms operate in Tunisia to take advantage of relatively low labor costs and preferential access to nearby European markets. Economic links are closest with European countries, which dominate Tunisia's trade. Tunisia's currency, the dinar, is not traded outside Tunisia. However, partial convertibility exists for bona fide commercial and investment transaction. Certain restrictions still limit operations carried out by Tunisian residents.

The stock market capitalisation of listed companies in Tunisia was valued at $5.3 Billion in 2007, 15% of 2007 GDP, by the World Bank.[29]

For 2007, foreign direct investment totaled TN Dinar 2 billion in 2007, or 5.18% of the total volume of investment in the country. This figure is up 35.7% from 2006 and includes 271 new foreign enterprises and the expansion of 222 others already based in the country.

The economic growth rate seen for 2007, at 6.3% is the highest achieved in a decade.

On 29 and 30 November, Tunisia held an investment conference with country chiefs from all around the world with pledges that have reached $30 billion to finance new public projects.[30]

As of 2022, Tunisia's government is in need of international help as the economy grapples with a crisis in public finances that has raised fears it may default on debt and has contributed to shortages of food and fuel, according to government critics. As a result, the government announced in December 2022 that they expect to reduce its fiscal deficit to 5.5% in 2023 from a forecast 7.7% this year, driven by austerity measures that could pave the way for a final deal with the International Monetary Fund on a rescue package.[31]

Loan Guarantee

Source:[32]

On 20 April 2012, U.S. Treasury Secretary[33] and Tunisian Finance Minister Houcine Dimassi signed a declaration of intent[34] to move forward on a U.S. loan guarantee for Tunisia. The U.S. Government would provide this loan guarantee to enable the Tunisian government to access significant market financing at affordable rates and favorable maturities with the backing of a U.S. guarantee of principal and interest (up to 100 percent).

The support would consist of the U.S. guarantee of Tunisian government-issued debt (or of bank loans made to the Government of Tunisia). This guarantee will significantly reduce the Tunisian government's borrowing costs at a time when market access has become more expensive for many emerging market countries. In the weeks ahead, both governments intend to make progress on a loan guarantee agreement that would allow Tunisia to move forward with a debt issuance.

The ceremony took place at the World Bank immediately following the meeting of Finance Ministers of the Deauville Partnership with Arab Countries in Transition.

Microfinance institutions, such as Enda Tamweel, exist to assist those who are unable to access the regular banking system. This comprises those living in rural or impoverished regions where the informal sector thrives, accounting for 34% of Tunisia's GDP.[35] [36]

Enda Tamweel has made over 3 million microloans to over 900,000 people in the 30 years since its inception, infusing more than €1.6 billion into the local economy.

Energy

Tunisia's natural resources are modest when compared to those of its neighbors: Algeria and Libya. This modesty in natural resources forced the country to import oil, which contributed to the rise in the cost of gasoline: on April 26, 2006, the liter crossed the bar of one dinar to sell for 1.50 Tunisian dinars. (a price equivalent to European prices from the point of view of purchasing power parity).[37]

Electricity

Economic structure

In 2017, the breakdown by economic sector is as follows:

Economy sectorcontribution to GDP
Agriculture10,1 %
Industry26,2 %
Services63,8 %

Agriculture

Agriculture - products: olives, grain, tomatoes, citrus fruit, sugar beets, dates, almonds.

In 2018, Tunisia produced:

In addition to smaller productions of other agricultural products, like almond (66 thousand tons) and sugar beet (76 thousand tons).[39]

See also

External links

Notes and References

  1. Web site: World Economic Outlook Database, April 2019. International Monetary Fund. IMF.org. 29 September 2019.
  2. Web site: World Bank Country and Lending Groups. World Bank. datahelpdesk.worldbank.org. 29 September 2019.
  3. Web site: locations=TN&name_desc=false Population, total - Tunisia. World Bank. data.worldbank.org. 3 October 2019.
  4. Web site: World Economic Outlook Database, October 2019. IMF.org. 16 November 2019.
  5. Book: Middle East and North Africa Economic Update, April 2020 : How Transparency Can Help the Middle East and North Africa. openknowledge.worldbank.org. 9 April 2020. World Bank. 10 April 2020. 10. Rabah. Arezki. Daniel. Lederman. Amani. Abou Harb. Nelly. El-Mallakh. Yuting. Fan. Asif. Islam. Ha. Nguyen. Marwane. Zouaidi. 9781464815614 .
  6. Web site: The World Factbook. Central Intelligence Agency. CIA.gov. 12 May 2019.
  7. Web site: Tunisia - inflation rate 1986-2022.
  8. Web site: Poverty headcount ratio at national poverty lines (% of population) - Tunisia. data.worldbank.org. World Bank. 20 March 2020.
  9. Web site: Poverty headcount ratio at $5.50 a day (2011 PPP) (% of population) - Tunisia. data.worldbank.org. World Bank. 20 March 2020.
  10. Web site: GINI index (World Bank estimate). World Bank. data.worldbank.org. 12 May 2019.
  11. Web site: Human Development Index (HDI). HDRO (Human Development Report Office) United Nations Development Programme. hdr.undp.org. 22 November 2022.
  12. Web site: Inequality-adjusted Human Development Index (IHDI). HDRO (Human Development Report Office) United Nations Development Programme. hdr.undp.org. 22 November 2022.
  13. Web site: Labor force, total - Tunisia. World Bank. data.worldbank.org. 27 November 2019.
  14. Web site: Employment to population ratio, 15+, total (%) (national estimate) - Tunisia. World Bank. data.worldbank.org.
  15. Web site: Rankings by Country of Average Monthly Net Salary (After Tax) (Salaries And Financing). www.numbeo.com.
  16. Web site: Ease of Doing Business in Tunisia. Doingbusiness.org. 2017-11-24.
  17. Web site: Tunisia Exports 1965-2022.
  18. Web site: Foreign trade partners of Tunisia. The Observatory of Economic Complexity. 18 June 2021.
  19. Web site: Tunisia Trade | WITS | Text.
  20. Web site: Sovereigns rating list. Standard & Poor's. 26 May 2011.
  21. News: How Fitch, Moody's and S&P rate each country's credit rating. 15 April 2011. Simon. Rogers. Ami. Sedghi. The Guardian. 28 May 2011.
  22. Web site: Competitiveness Rankings.
  23. Web site: Tunisia Economy, Politics and GDP Growth Summary - The Economist Intelligence Unit. EIU Digital. Solutions. country.eiu.com.
  24. Web site: Tunisia: GDP per capita. Index Mundi. 2012-07-02.
  25. Web site: CIA World Factbook. cia.gov. CIA. 16 July 2015. dmy.
  26. News: Tunisia's tourism grappling with job losses. 16 July 2015. BBC World. 15 July 2015.
  27. News: A Tunis, les chiffonniers sortent de l'ombre. Le Monde. 28 May 2019. 2022-04-11.
  28. Web site: Report for Selected Countries and Subjects. www.imf.org. en-US. 2018-10-07.
  29. Web site: Data - Finance. 2009-12-31. dead. https://web.archive.org/web/20061205235151/http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/DATASTATISTICS/0%2C%2CcontentMDK%3A20394793~menuPK%3A1192714~pagePK%3A64133150~piPK%3A64133175~theSitePK%3A239419%2C00.html. 5 December 2006. dmy.
  30. News: Hoping to preserve democracy, Tunisia woos foreign investors. https://web.archive.org/web/20161130155006/https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/africa/hoping-to-salvage-democracy-tunisia-woos-foreign-investors/2016/11/29/edb106e0-b626-11e6-939c-91749443c5e5_story.html. dead. 2016-11-30.
  31. News: Amara. Tarek. 2022-12-23. Tunisia seeks to cut fiscal deficit to 5.5% in 2023, led by economic reforms. en. Reuters. 2022-12-28.
  32. Web site: Treasury Secretary Geithner and Tunisian Finance Minister Dimassi Sign Declaration to Work Toward U.S. Loan Guarantee for Tunisia. U.S. Department of the Treasury. 2012-06-13.
  33. [Timothy Geithner]
  34. Web site: FAQs: U.S. LOAN GUARANTEE FOR TUNISIA. https://web.archive.org/web/20140727043012/http://content.govdelivery.com/attachments/USTREAS/2012/04/20/file_attachments/107830/Tunisia%2BFAQ.pdf. live. 2014-07-27. U.S. Department of the Treasury. 2012-09-13.
  35. Web site: A helping hand for young entrepreneurs in Tunisia. 2021-07-15. European Investment Bank. en.
  36. Web site: EBRD, Enda Tamweel and Attijari Bank supporting microfinance in Tunisia. 2021-07-15. www.ebrd.com. en.
  37. Web site: Tunisia Energy Situation - energypedia. 2021-10-14. energypedia.info. en.
  38. Web site: Nation Master.
  39. http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/QC/ Tunisia production in 2018, by FAO