In probability theory, there exist several different notions of convergence of sequences of random variables, including convergence in probability, convergence in distribution, and almost sure convergence. The different notions of convergence capture different properties about the sequence, with some notions of convergence being stronger than others. For example, convergence in distribution tells us about the limit distribution of a sequence of random variables. This is a weaker notion than convergence in probability, which tells us about the value a random variable will take, rather than just the distribution.
The concept is important in probability theory, and its applications to statistics and stochastic processes. The same concepts are known in more general mathematics as stochastic convergence and they formalize the idea that certain properties of a sequence of essentially random or unpredictable events can sometimes be expected to settle down into a behavior that is essentially unchanging when items far enough into the sequence are studied. The different possible notions of convergence relate to how such a behavior can be characterized: two readily understood behaviors are that the sequence eventually takes a constant value, and that values in the sequence continue to change but can be described by an unchanging probability distribution.
"Stochastic convergence" formalizes the idea that a sequence of essentially random or unpredictable events can sometimes be expected to settle into a pattern. The pattern may for instance be
Some less obvious, more theoretical patterns could be
These other types of patterns that may arise are reflected in the different types of stochastic convergence that have been studied.
While the above discussion has related to the convergence of a single series to a limiting value, the notion of the convergence of two series towards each other is also important, but this is easily handled by studying the sequence defined as either the difference or the ratio of the two series.
For example, if the average of n independent random variables Yi, i = 1, ..., n, all having the same finite mean and variance, is given by
Xn=
1 | |
n |
n | |
\sum | |
i=1 |
Yi,
then as n tends to infinity, converges in probability (see below) to the common mean, μ, of the random variables Yi. This result is known as the weak law of large numbers. Other forms of convergence are important in other useful theorems, including the central limit theorem.
(\Omega,l{F},P)
Examples of convergence in distribution | ||||
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Header1: | Dice factory | |||
Data2: | Suppose a new dice factory has just been built. The first few dice come out quite biased, due to imperfections in the production process. The outcome from tossing any of them will follow a distribution markedly different from the desired uniform distribution. As the factory is improved, the dice become less and less loaded, and the outcomes from tossing a newly produced die will follow the uniform distribution more and more closely. | |||
Header3: | Tossing coins | |||
Data4: | Let be the fraction of heads after tossing up an unbiased coin times. Then has the Bernoulli distribution with expected value and variance . The subsequent random variables will all be distributed binomially. As grows larger, this distribution will gradually start to take shape more and more similar to the bell curve of the normal distribution. If we shift and rescale appropriately, then \scriptstyleZn=
| |||
Header5: | Graphic example | |||
Data6: | Suppose is an iid sequence of uniform random variables. Let \scriptstyleZn={\scriptscriptstyle
|
Loosely, with this mode of convergence, we increasingly expect to see the next outcome in a sequence of random experiments becoming better and better modeled by a given probability distribution. More precisely, the distribution of the associated random variable in the sequence becomes arbitrarily close to a specified fixed distribution.
Convergence in distribution is the weakest form of convergence typically discussed, since it is implied by all other types of convergence mentioned in this article. However, convergence in distribution is very frequently used in practice; most often it arises from application of the central limit theorem.
A sequence
X1,X2,\ldots
F1,F2,\ldots
\limn\toinftyFn(x)=F(x),
for every number
x\inR
The requirement that only the continuity points of should be considered is essential. For example, if are distributed uniformly on intervals, then this sequence converges in distribution to the degenerate random variable . Indeed, for all n when, and for all when . However, for this limiting random variable, even though for all . Thus the convergence of cdfs fails at the point where is discontinuous.
Convergence in distribution may be denoted as
where
\scriptstylel{L}X
For random vectors the convergence in distribution is defined similarly. We say that this sequence converges in distribution to a random -vector if
\limn\toinftyP(Xn\inA)=P(X\inA)
The definition of convergence in distribution may be extended from random vectors to more general random elements in arbitrary metric spaces, and even to the “random variables” which are not measurable — a situation which occurs for example in the study of empirical processes. This is the “weak convergence of laws without laws being defined” — except asymptotically.
In this case the term weak convergence is preferable (see weak convergence of measures), and we say that a sequence of random elements converges weakly to (denoted as) if
*h(X | |
E | |
n) |
\toEh(X)
F(a)=P(X\lea)
P(Xn\lex)\toP(X\lex)
x\mapstoP(X\lex)
Ef(Xn)\toEf(X)
f
E
Ef(Xn)\toEf(X)
f
\liminfEf(Xn)\geEf(X)
f
\liminfP(Xn\inG)\geP(X\inG)
G
\lim\supP(Xn\inF)\leP(X\inF)
F
P(Xn\inB)\toP(X\inB)
B
X
\limsupEf(Xn)\leEf(X)
f
\liminfEf(Xn)\geEf(X)
f
Examples of convergence in probability | |
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Header1: | Height of a person |
Data2: | Consider the following experiment. First, pick a random person in the street. Let be their height, which is ex ante a random variable. Then ask other people to estimate this height by eye. Let be the average of the first responses. Then (provided there is no systematic error) by the law of large numbers, the sequence will converge in probability to the random variable . |
Header3: | Predicting random number generation |
Data4: | Suppose that a random number generator generates a pseudorandom floating point number between 0 and 1. Let random variable represent the distribution of possible outputs by the algorithm. Because the pseudorandom number is generated deterministically, its next value is not truly random. Suppose that as you observe a sequence of randomly generated numbers, you can deduce a pattern and make increasingly accurate predictions as to what the next randomly generated number will be. Let be your guess of the value of the next random number after observing the first random numbers. As you learn the pattern and your guesses become more accurate, not only will the distribution of converge to the distribution of, but the outcomes of will converge to the outcomes of . |
The basic idea behind this type of convergence is that the probability of an “unusual” outcome becomes smaller and smaller as the sequence progresses.
The concept of convergence in probability is used very often in statistics. For example, an estimator is called consistent if it converges in probability to the quantity being estimated. Convergence in probability is also the type of convergence established by the weak law of large numbers.
A sequence of random variables converges in probability towards the random variable X if for all ε > 0
\limn\toinftyP(|Xn-X|>\varepsilon)=0.
More explicitly, let Pn(ε) be the probability that Xn is outside the ball of radius ε centered at X. Then is said to converge in probability to X if for any and any δ > 0 there exists a number N (which may depend on ε and δ) such that for all n ≥ N, Pn(ε) < δ (the definition of limit).
Notice that for the condition to be satisfied, it is not possible that for each n the random variables X and Xn are independent (and thus convergence in probability is a condition on the joint cdf's, as opposed to convergence in distribution, which is a condition on the individual cdf's), unless X is deterministic like for the weak law of large numbers. At the same time, the case of a deterministic X cannot, whenever the deterministic value is a discontinuity point (not isolated), be handled by convergence in distribution, where discontinuity points have to be explicitly excluded.
Convergence in probability is denoted by adding the letter p over an arrow indicating convergence, or using the "plim" probability limit operator:
For random elements on a separable metric space, convergence in probability is defined similarly by
\forall\varepsilon>0,P(d(Xn,X)\geq\varepsilon)\to0.
g
Not every sequence of random variables which converges to another random variable in distribution also converges in probability to that random variable. As an example, consider a sequence of standard normal random variables
Xn
Yn=
nX | |
(-1) | |
n |
Yn
Xn
n
which does not converge to
0
Examples of almost sure convergence | |
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Header1: | Example 1 |
Data2: | Consider an animal of some short-lived species. We record the amount of food that this animal consumes per day. This sequence of numbers will be unpredictable, but we may be quite certain that one day the number will become zero, and will stay zero forever after. |
Header3: | Example 2 |
Data4: | Consider a man who tosses seven coins every morning. Each afternoon, he donates one pound to a charity for each head that appeared. The first time the result is all tails, however, he will stop permanently. Let X1, X2, … be the daily amounts the charity received from him. We may be almost sure that one day this amount will be zero, and stay zero forever after that. However, when we consider any finite number of days, there is a nonzero probability the terminating condition will not occur. |
This is the type of stochastic convergence that is most similar to pointwise convergence known from elementary real analysis.
To say that the sequence converges almost surely or almost everywhere or with probability 1 or strongly towards X means that
This means that the values of approach the value of X, in the sense that events for which does not converge to X have probability 0 (see Almost surely). Using the probability space
(\Omega,l{F},P)
Using the notion of the limit superior of a sequence of sets, almost sure convergence can also be defined as follows:
Almost sure convergence is often denoted by adding the letters a.s. over an arrow indicating convergence:
(S,d)
To say that the sequence of random variables (Xn) defined over the same probability space (i.e., a random process) converges surely or everywhere or pointwise towards X means
where Ω is the sample space of the underlying probability space over which the random variables are defined.
This is the notion of pointwise convergence of a sequence of functions extended to a sequence of random variables. (Note that random variables themselves are functions).
Sure convergence of a random variable implies all the other kinds of convergence stated above, but there is no payoff in probability theory by using sure convergence compared to using almost sure convergence. The difference between the two only exists on sets with probability zero. This is why the concept of sure convergence of random variables is very rarely used.
Consider a sequence
\{Xn\}
P(X | ||||
|
P(X | ||||
|
0<\varepsilon<1/2
P(|Xn|\geq\varepsilon)=
1 | |
n |
0
Xn\to0
Since
\sumn\geqP(Xn=1)\toinfty
\{Xn=1\}
P(\limsupn\{Xn=1\})=1
\{Xn\}
0
0
1
Given a real number, we say that the sequence converges in the r-th mean (or in the Lr-norm) towards the random variable X, if the -th absolute moments
E
E
\limn\toinftyE\left(
r | |
|X | |
n-X| |
\right)=0,
Xn
X
This type of convergence is often denoted by adding the letter Lr over an arrow indicating convergence:
The most important cases of convergence in r-th mean are:
Convergence in the r-th mean, for r ≥ 1, implies convergence in probability (by Markov's inequality). Furthermore, if r > s ≥ 1, convergence in r-th mean implies convergence in s-th mean. Hence, convergence in mean square implies convergence in mean.
Additionally,
\overset{}{Xn\xrightarrow{Lr}X} ⇒ \limn
r] | |
E[|X | |
n| |
=E[|X|r].
\overset{}{Xn\xrightarrow{p}X}
Provided the probability space is complete:
Xn \xrightarrow{\overset{}{p}} X
Xn \xrightarrow{\overset{}{p}} Y
X=Y
Xn \xrightarrow{\overset{}a.s.
Xn \xrightarrow{\overset{}a.s.
X=Y
r}} X | |
X | |
n \xrightarrow{\overset{}{L |
r}} Y | |
X | |
n \xrightarrow{\overset{}{L |
X=Y
Xn \xrightarrow{\overset{}{p}} X
Yn \xrightarrow{\overset{}{p}} Y
aXn+bYn \xrightarrow{\overset{}{p}} aX+bY
XnYn\xrightarrow{\overset{}{p}} XY
Xn \xrightarrow{\overset{}a.s.
Yn \xrightarrow{\overset{}a.s.
aXn+bYn \xrightarrow{\overset{}a.s.
XnYn\xrightarrow{\overset{}a.s.
r}} X | |
X | |
n \xrightarrow{\overset{}{L |
r}} Y | |
Y | |
n \xrightarrow{\overset{}{L |
aXn+bY
r}} aX+bY | |
n \xrightarrow{\overset{}{L |
The chain of implications between the various notions of convergence are noted in their respective sections. They are, using the arrow notation:
\begin{matrix} \xrightarrow{\overset{}{Ls}}&\underset{s>r\geq1}{ ⇒ }&\xrightarrow{\overset{}{Lr}}&&\\ &&\Downarrow&&\\ \xrightarrow{a.s.
These properties, together with a number of other special cases, are summarized in the following list:
Xn \xrightarrow{a.s.
(nk)
Xn \xrightarrow{\overset{}{p}} X ⇒
X | |
nk |
\xrightarrow{a.s.
Xn \xrightarrow{\overset{}{p}} X ⇒ Xn \xrightarrow{\overset{}{d}} X
r}} X | |
X | |
n \xrightarrow{\overset{}{L |
⇒ Xn \xrightarrow{\overset{}{p}} X
r}} X | |
X | |
n \xrightarrow{\overset{}{L |
⇒
s}} X, | |
X | |
n \xrightarrow{\overset{}{L |
Xn \xrightarrow{\overset{}{d}} c ⇒ Xn \xrightarrow{\overset{}{p}} c,
Xn \xrightarrow{\overset{}{d}} X, |Xn-Yn| \xrightarrow{\overset{}{p}} 0 ⇒ Yn \xrightarrow{\overset{}{d}} X
Xn \xrightarrow{\overset{}{d}} X, Yn \xrightarrow{\overset{}{d}} c ⇒ (Xn,Yn) \xrightarrow{\overset{}{d}} (X,c)
Note that the condition that converges to a constant is important, if it were to converge to a random variable Y then we wouldn't be able to conclude that converges to .
Xn \xrightarrow{\overset{}{p}} X, Yn \xrightarrow{\overset{}{p}} Y ⇒ (Xn,Yn) \xrightarrow{\overset{}{p}} (X,Y)
\sumnP\left(|Xn-X|>\varepsilon\right)<infty,
then we say that converges almost completely, or almost in probability towards X. When converges almost completely towards X then it also converges almost surely to X. In other words, if converges in probability to X sufficiently quickly (i.e. the above sequence of tail probabilities is summable for all), then also converges almost surely to X. This is a direct implication from the Borel–Cantelli lemma.
Sn=X1+ … +Xn
then converges almost surely if and only if converges in probability.
}
Xn\xrightarrow{\overset{}{P}}X
Xn \xrightarrow{\overset{}{p}} X
r}} X | |
X | |
n \xrightarrow{\overset{}{L |
r] | |
E[|X | |
n| |
→ E[|X|r]<infty
r\} | |
\{|X | |
n| |
Xn
Xn\stackrel{p}{ → }X
Xn\stackrel{a.s.}{ → }X