List of election bellwether counties in the United States explained

Election bellwether counties in the United States are counties that vote in alignment with the country as a whole in United States presidential elections, so that the county votes for the candidate who ultimately wins the election. The strongest bellwether counties are those that back the winning candidate in all elections. There are a total of 3,142 counties or county equivalents in the United States.[1]

Significant bellwethers

The following county is the only county to have voted for the winner of the presidential election in every election starting in 1980:

Deviations in one election

The following 43 counties have deviated from the winner of the presidential election in one election since 1980 (no current bellwethers deviated from the winner in ONLY 1980, 1984, 1996 or 2008, although some deviated in one of those plus another election):[3] [4]

Election year of deviation!scope="col"
CountyStateCounty winnerVotesNational winnerLast deviation
1988BlaineMichael Dukakis1,4601,402George H. W. Bush1912
Clay11,18610,3801968
1992DoorGeorge H. W. Bush5,4684,735Bill Clinton1976
Essex8,2786,717
Hillsborough61,62058,470
Kent15,56215,3641948
Saratoga36,91733,0111976
2000PinellasAl Gore200,657184,849George W. Bush
2004NicolletJohn Kerry8,7978,689
Sullivan11,43410,142
2012AlbanyMitt Romney7,8667,458Barack Obama
2016BexarHillary Clinton319,550240,333Donald Trump1968
Buncombe75,45255,7161960
Centre37,08835,2741976
Clackamas102,09588,392
DeKalb20,46619,091
Merced37,31728,7251968
San Bernardino340,833271,2401976
San Joaquin121,12488,936
Skagit26,69024,736
Stanislaus81,64778,4941968
Sandoval27,70725,905
Ventura194,402132,3231976
Will151,927132,720
Winnebago55,71355,624
2020BremerDonald Trump8,2945,958Joe Biden
Cortland10,78910,369
Essex1,7731,405
Hidalgo1,1208231968
Juneau5,7193,2391960
Marquette1976
Otsego14,38212,975
Ottawa14,6289,0081960
Richland4,8713,9951976
Sawyer5,9094,4981960
Shiawassee23,14915,3471976
Valencia17,36414,6231948
Van Buren21,59116,8031976
Vigo23,54518,2131952
Warren4,6763,0901976
Washington10,1946,761
Westmoreland5,3184,5011960
Wood35,75730,6171976

Deviations in two elections

The following 111 counties have deviated from the winner of the presidential election in two elections since 1980:[3]

Notes

  1. Web site: How many counties are in the United States?. Reunion Technology Inc.. June 10, 2022.
  2. Web site: Bellwether Counties Nearly Wiped Out by 2020 Election. McCormick. John. John D. McCormick. November 17, 2020. subscription. The Wall Street Journal. November 13, 2020.
  3. Web site: Leip. David. Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections. 2020-11-22. uselectionatlas.org.
  4. Web site: Obeng. Adam. 26 April 2016. There Are No Bellwether Counties. November 18, 2020. The Huffington Post.

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