2012 Washington gubernatorial election explained

Election Name:	2012 Washington gubernatorial election
Country:	Washington
Type:	presidential
Ongoing:	no
Previous Election:	2008 Washington gubernatorial election
Previous Year:	2008
Next Election:	2016 Washington gubernatorial election
Next Year:	2016
Image1:	File:Jay Inslee Official Photo (cropped).jpg
Nominee1:	Jay Inslee
Party1:	Democratic Party (United States)
Popular Vote1:	1,582,802
Percentage1:	51.4%
Nominee2:	Rob McKenna
Party2:	Republican Party (United States)
Popular Vote2:	1,488,245
Percentage2:	48.3%
Map Size:	275px
Governor
Before Election:	Christine Gregoire
Before Party:	Democratic Party (United States)
After Election:	Jay Inslee
After Party:	Democratic Party (United States)

The 2012 Washington gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2012.^[1] Candidates in the election were chosen in an August 7, 2012^[2] primary election, under the state's nonpartisan blanket primary system, which allows voters to vote for any candidate running in the race, regardless of party affiliation. The two candidates who received the most votes in the primary election qualified for the general election.^[3]

Incumbent Governor Christine Gregoire decided to retire rather than seek a third term.^[4] She endorsed fellow Democrat Jay Inslee, a U.S. Congressman, as her successor. On March 20, 2012, Inslee resigned from Congress in order to focus on his gubernatorial campaign.^[5]

Inslee and Republican Rob McKenna, the Attorney General of Washington, advanced to the general election. Inslee narrowly won the election, and McKenna conceded three days later.^[6]

Primary election

Democratic candidates

• Rob Hill
• Jay Inslee, U.S. Representative for WA-01 (1999–2012) and WA-04 (1993–1995)^[7]

Declined

• Lisa Brown, State Senate Majority Leader^[8]
• Dow Constantine, King County Executive^[9]
• Christine Gregoire, incumbent Governor^[4]
• Jim McIntire, State Treasurer^[10]
• Aaron Reardon, Snohomish County Executive^[11]
• Ron Sims, former King County Executive and Deputy Secretary of Housing and Urban Development^[12]
• Brian Sonntag, State Auditor^{[13] [14]}

Republican candidates

• Shahram Hadian, pastor and small business owner^[15]
• Javier O. Lopez
• Rob McKenna, Attorney General of Washington^[16]
• Max Sampson

Declined

• Dave Reichert, U.S. Representative^[17]

Independent candidates

• Christian Joubert
• L. Dale Sorgen, computer programmer and former pastor^[18]
• James White

Results

General election

Candidates

• Jay Inslee (Democratic), former U.S. Representative
• Rob McKenna (Republican), Attorney General of Washington

Debates

• Complete video of debate, October 2, 2012 - C-SPAN

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
align=left	The Cook Political Report^[20]		November 1, 2012
align=left	Sabato's Crystal Ball^[21]		November 5, 2012
align=left	Rothenberg Political Report^[22]		November 2, 2012
align=left	Real Clear Politics^[23]		November 5, 2012

Polling

Aggregate polls

Poll source	Date(s) administered	class=small	Sample size	Margin of error	width=100px	Jay Inslee (D)	width=100px	Rob McKenna (R)	Undecided
Public Policy Polling^[25]	November 1–3, 2012	932	± 3.2%	align=center	50%	48%	2%
KING5/SurveyUSA^[26]	October 28–31, 2012	555	± 4.2%	align=center	47%	46%	7%
KCTS 9/Washington Poll^[27]	October 18–31, 2012	632	± 3.9%	align=center	49%	46%	6%
Elway Poll^[28]	October 18–21, 2012	451	± 4.5%	45%	align=center	47%	10%
Strategies360^[29]	October 17–20, 2012	500	± 4.4%	45%	45%	10%
Public Policy Polling/WCV^[30]	October 15–16, 2012	574	± n/a%	align=center	48%	42%	10%
KCTS 9/Washington Poll^[31]	October 1–16, 2012	782	± 3.5%	align=center	48%	45%	8%
Rasmussen Reports^[32]	October 14, 2012	500	± 4.5%	align=center	47%	45%	9%
SurveyUSA^[33]	October 12–14, 2012	543	± 4.3%	align=center	47%	44%	9%
SurveyUSA^[34]	September 28–30, 2012	540	± 4.3%	align=center	48%	42%	10%
Rasmussen Reports^[35]	September 26, 2012	500	± 4.5%	align=center	46%	45%	9%
Public Elway Poll^[36]	September 9–12, 2012	405	± 5%	align=center	44%	41%	15%
Public Policy Polling^[37]	September 7–9, 2012	563	± 4.2%	align=center	48%	42%	10%
Survey USA^[38]	September 7–9, 2012	524	± 4.4%	align=center	49%	44%	7%
Survey USA^[39]	August 2–3, 2012	524	± 4.4%	align=center	48%	45%	7%
Elway Poll^[40]	July 18–22, 2012	405	± 5.0%	align=center	43%	36%	21%
Survey USA^[41]	July 16–17, 2012	630	± 4.0%	41%	align=center	42%	16%
Public Policy Polling^[42]	June 14–17, 2012	1,073	± 3.0%	40%	align=center	43%	17%
Elway Poll^[43]	June 13–16, 2012	408	± 5.0%	40%	align=center	42%	18%
Strategies360^[44]	May 22–24, 2012	500	± 4.4%	39%	align=center	43%	18%
Survey USA^[45]	May 8–9, 2012	557	± 4.2%	38%	align=center	40%	22%
Grove Insights (D)^[46]	March 26–28, 2012	500	± 4.4%	align=center	38%	34%	28%
Grove Insights (D)^[47]	February 21–23, 2012	500	± 4.4%	38%	38%	24%
Public Policy Polling^[48]	February 16–19, 2012	1,264	± 2.8%	42%	42%	16%
Survey USA^[49]	February 13–15, 2012	572	± 4.2%	39%	align=center	49%	12%
Elway Poll^[50]	February 7–9, 2012	405	± 5.0%	36%	align=center	45%	19%
Survey USA^[51]	January 12–16, 2012	617	± 4.0%	43%	align=center	46%	11%
Survey USA^[52]	November 21–23, 2011	549	± 4.3%	38%	align=center	44%	17%
Washington Poll^[53]	October 10–30, 2011	938	± 3.2%	38%	align=center	44%	18%
Survey USA^[54]	September 21–22, 2011	529	± 4.3%	38%	align=center	44%	18%
Survey USA^[55]	June 24–26, 2011	600	± 4.4%	align=center	47%	44%	9%
Public Policy Polling^[56]	May 12–15, 2011	1,098	± 3.0%	38%	align=center	40%	22%
Survey USA^[57]	April 27–28, 2011	610	± 4.0%	41%	align=center	48%	11%

Christine Gregoire vs. Rob McKenna

Poll source	Date(s) administered	class=small	Sample size	Margin of error	width=100px	Christine Gregoire (D)	width=100px	Rob McKenna (R)	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	May 12–15, 2011	1,098	± 3.0%	40%	align=center	49%	11%
Survey USA	April 27–28, 2011	610	± 4.0%	40%	align=center	52%	7%

Christine Gregoire vs. Dave Reichert

Poll source	Date(s) administered	class=small	Sample size	Margin of error	width=100px	Christine Gregoire (D)	width=100px	Dave Reichert (R)	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	May 12–15, 2011	1,098	± 3.0%	align=center	45%	41%	14%
Survey USA	April 27–28, 2011	610	± 4.0%	44%	align=center	48%	8%

Jay Inslee vs. Dave Reichert

Poll source	Date(s) administered	class=small	Sample size	Margin of error	width=100px	Jay Inslee (D)	width=100px	Dave Reichert (R)	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	May 12–15, 2011	1,098	± 3.0%	align=center	42%	36%	22%
Survey USA	April 27–28, 2011	610	± 4.0%	44%	align=center	46%	10%

Lisa Brown vs. Rob McKenna

Poll source	Date(s) administered	class=small	Sample size	Margin of error	width=100px	Lisa Brown (D)	width=100px	Rob McKenna (R)	Undecided
Public Policy Polling^[58]	July 27-August 1, 2010	1,204	± 2.8%	29%	align=center	47%	24%

Results

The race was close throughout the night, with results too close to call after 60 percent of ballots were cast.^[59] Inslee was declared the winner early in the morning three days later; McKenna conceded later in the evening.^[60]

Inslee won only eight of the state's 39 counties, relying on heavy votes from the Seattle metropolitan area pushing him to victory.^[61]

By county

County^[62]	Jay Inslee Democratic		Rob McKenna Republican		Margin		Total votes cast
		%		%		%
	Adams		1,408		29.78%		3,320		70.22%		-1,912		-40.44%		4,728
	Asotin		4,027		41.50%		5,677		58.50%		-1,650		-17.00%		9,704
	Benton		27,291		34.97%		50,757		65.03%		-23,466		-30.07%		78,048
	Chelan		11,616		36.41%		20,291		63.59%		-8,675		-27.19%		31,907
	Clallam		17,516		46.66%		20,021		53.34%		-2,505		-6.67%		37,537
	Clark		86,732		46.92%		98,131		53.08%		-11,399		-6.17%		184,863
	Columbia		656		29.54%		1,565		70.46%		-909		-40.93%		2,221
	Cowlitz		21,051		48.21%		22,612		51.79%		-1,561		-3.58%		43,663
	Douglas		4,746		31.88%		10,139		68.12%		-5,393		-36.23%		14,885
	Ferry		1,299		37.98%		2,121		62.02%		-822		-24.04%		3,420
	Franklin		8,181		36.50%		14,232		63.50%		-6,051		-27.00%		22,413
	Garfield		333		26.58%		920		73.42%		-587		-46.85%		1,253
	Grant		8,654		31.59%		18,742		68.41%		-10,088		-36.82%		27,396
	Grays Harbor		14,491		50.90%		13,978		49.10%		513		1.80%		28,469
	Island		19,324		46.67%		22,082		53.33%		-2,758		-6.66%		41,406
	Jefferson		12,176		62.29%		7,370		37.71%		4,806		24.59%		19,546
	King		590,879		62.36%		356,713		37.64%		234,166		24.71%		947,592
	Kitsap		60,578		49.72%		61,261		50.28%		-683		-0.56%		121,839
	Kittitas		7,137		39.90%		10,752		60.10%		-3,615		-20.21%		17,889
	Klickitat		4,442		44.07%		5,638		55.93%		-1,196		-11.87%		10,080
	Lewis		11,865		35.03%		22,002		64.97%		-10,137		-29.93%		33,867
	Lincoln		1,716		29.57%		4,088		70.43%		-2,372		-40.87%		5,804
	Mason		13,175		47.25%		14,708		52.75%		-1,533		-5.50%		27,883
	Okanogan		6,759		40.55%		9,909		59.45%		-3,150		-18.90%		16,668
	Pacific		5,379		51.73%		5,020		48.27%		359		3.45%		10,399
	Pend Oreille		2,442		37.06%		4,148		62.94%		-1,706		-25.89%		6,590
	Pierce		164,211		48.54%		174,078		51.46%		-9,867		-2.92%		338,289
	San Juan		6,763		64.82%		3,671		35.18%		3,092		29.63%		10,434
	Skagit		25,878		47.33%		28,803		52.67%		-2,925		-5.35%		54,681
	Skamania		2,434		45.92%		2,867		54.08%		-433		-8.17%		5,301
	Snohomish		166,452		51.23%		158,440		48.77%		8,012		2.47%		324,892
	Spokane		95,354		43.49%		123,894		56.51%		-28,540		-13.02%		219,248
	Stevens		7,426		33.79%		14,554		66.21%		-7,128		-32.43%		21,980
	Thurston		67,353		53.75%		57,948		46.25%		9,405		7.51%		125,301
	Wahkiakum		964		42.83%		1,287		57.17%		-323		-14.35%		2,251
	Walla Walla		9,353		38.03%		15,238		61.97%		-5,885		-23.93%		24,591
	Whatcom		53,599		53.10%		47,340		46.90%		6,259		6.20%		100,939
	Whitman		7,351		43.83%		9,421		56.17%		-2,070		-12.34%		16,772
	Yakima		31,791		41.67%		44,507		58.33%		-12,716		-16.67%		76,298
Totals	1,582,802	51.54%	1,488,245	48.46%	94,557	3.08%	3,071,047

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

• Island (largest city: Oak Harbor)
• Kitsap (largest city: Bremerton)
• Pierce (largest city: Tacoma)
• Skagit (largest city: Mount Vernon)

By congressional district

Inslee won 5 of 10 congressional districts, with the remaining 5 going to McKenna, including one that elected a Democrat.^[63]

District	Inslee	McKenna	Representative
		48%	52%		Suzan DelBene
		54%	46%		Rick Larsen
		46%	54%		Jaime Herrera Beutler
		37%	63%		Doc Hastings
		42%	58%		Cathy McMorris Rodgers
	51%	49%		Norm Dicks
			Derek Kilmer
		74%	26%		Jim McDermott
		43%	57%		Dave Reichert
		61%	39%		Adam Smith
		51%	49%		Denny Heck

See also

• 2016 Washington gubernatorial election

Notes

Partisan clients

External links

• Elections & Voting at the Washington Secretary of State office

Official campaign websites

• Jay Inslee (D) for Governor
• Rob McKenna (R) for Governor
• Shahram Hadian (R) for Governor

Notes and References

1. Web site: Washington's 2012 elections. Balletopedia - The Encyclopedia of American Politics. Balletopedia. 28 June 2017. 8 May 2017. https://web.archive.org/web/20170508205934/https://ballotpedia.org/Washington_gubernatorial_election,_2012. live.
2. Web site: RCW 29a.04.311: Primaries.. apps.leg.wa.gov. 2011-07-02. 2011-08-13. https://web.archive.org/web/20110813074429/http://apps.leg.wa.gov/rcw/default.aspx?cite=29A.04.311. live.
3. http://wei.secstate.wa.gov/osos/en/Pages/Top2PrimaryFAQ.aspx Pages - Top 2 Primary
4. News: 2 terms and out for Gov. Chris Gregoire. June 13, 2011. June 13, 2011. The Seattle Times. Andrew. Garber. June 16, 2011. https://web.archive.org/web/20110616090459/http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2015308479_gregoire14m.html. live.
5. News: Grygiel. Chris. US Rep. Inslee to resign for Wash. gov. race. The News Tribune. March 10, 2012. Associated Press.
6. News: Brunner. Jim. McKenna concedes; Inslee to be governor. The Seattle Times. November 10, 2012. November 11, 2012. November 12, 2012. https://web.archive.org/web/20121112013016/http://seattletimes.com/html/localnews/2019648697_govrace10m.html. live.
7. http://www.rollcall.com/news/Candidates-Washington-State-1st-District-Inslee-Seat-206805-1.html "Inslee Announcement Prompts More Democratic Interest"
8. http://www.theolympian.com/2011/06/28/1704768/lisa-brown-endorses-inslee-for.html "Lisa Brown endorses Inslee"
9. Web site: Inslee Running for Gov; Constantine Cheers Him on Facebook - PubliCola. https://web.archive.org/web/20110630131330/http://publicola.com/2011/06/27/inslee-running-for-gov-constanine-cheers-him-on-facebook/. dead. 30 June 2011. 30 June 2011. 29 June 2011. dmy-all.
10. http://www.theolympian.com/2011/06/12/1684212/2012-races-take-shape.html 2012 races take shape - Elections - The Olympian
11. Web site: Aaron Reardon says he has no plans to run for governor or Congress. October 19, 2011. October 21, 2011. The Herald (Everett). Noah. Haglund. October 22, 2011. https://web.archive.org/web/20111022021814/http://www.heraldnet.com/article/20111019/NEWS01/710199814. live.
12. http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2011/06/sims-quits-hud.php Sims Quits HUD Post, Hotline On Call
13. News: Brian Sonntag will not run for governor. The Seattle Times. Andrew. Garber. July 5, 2011. July 5, 2011. July 9, 2011. https://web.archive.org/web/20110709021430/http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politicsnorthwest/2015513343_brian_sonntag_will_not_run_for.html. live.
14. Web site: State auditor Brian Sonntag makes decision on governor's race-KING5.com Seattle. 2011-07-05. 2011-07-28. https://web.archive.org/web/20110728102310/http://www.king5.com/news/local/State-auditor-Brian-Sonntag-makes-decision-on-governors-race-125005454.html. live.
15. Web site: Everett pastor enters governor race. August 9, 2011. August 16, 2011. The Herald (Everett). Jerry. Cornfield. August 10, 2012. https://web.archive.org/web/20120810035146/http://heraldnet.com/article/20110809/NEWS01/708099840. live.
16. News: McKenna launches campaign for governor. The Seattle Times. Jim. Brunner. June 8, 2011.
17. News: Reichert: I'll support McKenna for governor. Seattle Post-Intelligencer. Joel. Connelly. June 8, 2011. June 10, 2011. June 10, 2011. https://web.archive.org/web/20110610193636/http://blog.seattlepi.com/seattlepolitics/2011/06/08/reichert-ill-support-mckenna/#more-9502. live.
18. Web site: Sultan man declares 2012 governor bid. November 19, 2009. October 12, 2011. The Herald (Everett). Andy. Rathbun. July 28, 2012. https://web.archive.org/web/20120728070644/http://www.heraldnet.com/article/20091119/NEWS01/711199929. live.
19. http://publicola.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/Elway-Poll-0711-GovRace.pdf Chism Strategies
20. Web site: 2012 Governor Race Ratings for November 1, 2012 . The Cook Political Report . November 30, 2018 . December 1, 2018 . https://web.archive.org/web/20181201051359/https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/governor-race-ratings/139101 . live .
21. Web site: PROJECTION: OBAMA WILL LIKELY WIN SECOND TERM . Sabato's Crystal Ball . November 30, 2018 . December 1, 2018 . https://web.archive.org/web/20181201094552/http://crystalball.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/projection-obama-will-likely-win-second-term/ . live .
22. Web site: 2012 Gubernatorial Ratings . Gubernatorial Ratings . The Rothenberg Political Report . November 30, 2018 . December 1, 2018 . https://web.archive.org/web/20181201051247/http://www.insideelections.com/ratings/governor/2012-gubernatorial-ratings-november-2-2012 . live .
23. Web site: 2012 Elections Map - 2012 Governor Races . Real Clear Politics . November 30, 2018 . December 1, 2018 . https://web.archive.org/web/20181201051422/https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/governor/2012_elections_governor_map.html . live .
24. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/governor/wa/washington_governor_mckenna_vs_inslee-2202.html Real Clear Politics
25. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_WA_1103.pdf Public Policy Polling
26. https://web.archive.org/web/20121103093318/http://www.king5.com/news/politics/KING-5-Poll-Governors-race-a-dead-heat-176770651.html KING5/SurveyUSA
27. https://web.archive.org/web/20140318055359/http://kcts9.org/sites/default/files/kcts9wapoll_oct31.pdf KCTS 9/Washington Poll
28. http://blogs.seattletimes.com/politicsnorthwest/2012/10/24/new-elway-poll-shows-tight-governors-race-shift-among-women-voters/ Elway Poll
29. https://web.archive.org/web/20121030063547/http://www.strategies360.com/client/12-165%20OctWAToplines.pdf Strategies360
30. https://web.archive.org/web/20121018004731/http://wcvoters.org/files/public-policy-polling-oct-2012 Public Policy Polling/WCV
31. https://web.archive.org/web/20121025111411/http://www.washingtonpoll.org/results/kcts9wapoll_oct18.pdf KCTS 9/Washington Poll
32. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_governor_elections/washington/election_2012_washington_governor Rasmussen Reports
33. http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=0f2d10a1-52a7-4a98-b327-176c943c7605 SurveyUSA
34. http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=d44d7cbf-9db7-4b3d-92df-9d086f116429 SurveyUSA
35. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/archive/election_2012_archive/washington/washington_governor_inslee_d_46_mckenna_r_45 Rasmussen Reports
36. http://blogs.seattletimes.com/politicsnorthwest/2012/09/14/poll-gov-race-stays-tight-but-dems-lead-all-down-the-ballot/ Public Elway Poll
37. https://www.scribd.com/doc/105748567/WA-Gov-PPP-for-LCV-Sept-2012 Public Policy Polling
38. http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=07b89034-43b1-4d60-8d0f-2982bd314434 Survey USA
39. http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=3c25e95c-464c-45bb-bbcd-038726f54fe6 Survey USA
40. https://web.archive.org/web/20120728033610/http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2012/07/elway-poll-insl.php Elway Poll
41. http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=2786ebbd-3348-4795-b0a8-0ee124a9707d Survey USA
42. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_WA_619.pdf Public Policy Polling
43. http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politicsnorthwest/2018464898_elway_poll_gubernatorial_race.html Elway Poll
44. http://horsesass.org/poll-analysis-mckenna-leads-inslee-in-may/ Strategies360
45. http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=85387acf-dc2e-49da-959d-b6459590e0cd Survey USA
46. https://www.seattlemet.com/news-and-city-life/2012/04/new-poll-inslee-ahead-a-couple-of-asterisks-though Grove Insights (D)
47. http://www.thestranger.com/images/blogimages/2012/03/07/1331151734-gov_memo_030612.pdf Grove Insights (D)
48. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_WA_222.pdf Public Policy Polling
49. http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=e4c63883-1bd5-4b68-aa9f-28ddca972884 Survey USA
50. http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politicsnorthwest/2017504326_another_poll_shows_mckenna_lea.html Elway Poll
51. http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=3e569851-5364-447f-84cf-4bc6ac6bf688 Survey USA
52. http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=baa19978-df0f-4904-827b-65df44d845fb/ Survey USA
53. https://web.archive.org/web/20120128064619/http://www.washingtonpoll.org/results/103111.pdf Washington Poll
54. http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=c069d70c-f118-43a3-b6ca-6df726250053/ Survey USA
55. http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=8ceffbff-b91c-4f9b-9de7-c15a2f67b933 Survey USA
56. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_WA_0518424.pdf Public Policy Polling
57. http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=073689fc-835c-4cdf-955a-76e2195c9add/ Survey USA
58. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_WA_804.pdf Public Policy Polling
59. News: November 6, 2012 . Inslee vs. McKenna could drag on . The Seattle Times . August 25, 2016 . October 6, 2016 . https://web.archive.org/web/20161006094537/http://old.seattletimes.com/html/politics/2019614378_localraces06m.html . live .
60. News: Brunner . Jim . November 9, 2012 . McKenna concedes; Inslee to be governor . The Seattle Times . August 25, 2016 . October 6, 2016 . https://web.archive.org/web/20161006091533/http://old.seattletimes.com/html/localnews/2019648697_govrace10m.html . live .
61. News: Johnson . Kirk . November 28, 2012 . In West's 'Democratopolis,' Winning an Election With Only 8 of 39 Counties . A22 . . August 25, 2016 . March 2, 2017 . https://web.archive.org/web/20170302181204/http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/28/us/politics/in-washington-state-victory-with-8-of-39-counties.html . live .
62. Web site: Governor - County Results. 2024-08-12 . Washington Secretary of State.
63. Results . sos.wa.gov.