WOW counties explained

The WOW counties are three counties in the southeast of the U.S. state of Wisconsin: Waukesha, Ozaukee, and Washington. They lie to the west, north, and northwest of Milwaukee, respectively, and are part of the Milwaukee metropolitan area.[1] Collectively, the three counties have a population of 641,131 as of July 2022.[2] Like the collar counties surrounding Chicago, these counties have a primarily white population, and unusually so considering the trend of suburbs around cities in the Rust Belt region becoming more racially diverse.[3] Racine County, to the south of Milwaukee County, has similar demographics outside the city of Racine (though some communities have lower average income), but is usually not included. As a consequence of racial demographics, the WOW suburbs of Milwaukee have remained solidly republican for the time being, defying the national trend of the suburbs shifting to the left politically.[4]

Historically, the WOW counties were among the most Republican areas in the state. With the GOP's increasing trend toward right-wing populism under Donald Trump, however, several rural areas of Wisconsin have become significantly more Republican than the WOW counties in most races, including the non-partisan Superintendent of Public Instruction (where pro-school choice and voucher candidates who support traditional pedagogy are preferred). While the WOW counties remain solidly Republican, the party’s landslides have diminished somewhat in the Trump era, shrinking from 2 to 1 in 2012, to 3 to 2 in 2020. This has been attributed to moderate suburban republicans, who have rejected right-wing populism and hardcore conservatism.[5]

All county offices are held by Republicans; indeed, there are almost no elected Democrats above the county level. None of the counties have supported a Democrat for president since Lyndon Johnson's national landslide of 1964. In 2008, while Barack Obama carried Wisconsin by 14 points and won 59 out of 72 counties, the three counties were his weakest and the only ones in the state where he won less than 40 percent of the county's vote.[6] No Democratic presidential candidate carried a single municipality in the counties between 1996 and 2020, when Joe Biden narrowly flipped the city of Cedarburg in Ozaukee County.[7] The vast majority of the state party's voter turnout efforts (along with those of outside organizations) were, for many years, focused on maximizing turnout from those three counties to counteract the turnout from Milwaukee and Dane counties (home to Milwaukee and Madison) and the cities of Racine and Kenosha, which generally lean Democratic. The counties also represented the heart of Scott Walker's electoral coalitions during his 3 wins for Governor, garnering over 70% of the vote among the three counties.[8] The electoral importance of these counties for Republicans, Waukesha in particular, has caused some political commentators to dub it "crucial Waukesha county".[9] With the recent Republican trend in rural Wisconsin, however, GOP turnout efforts have become focused on maximizing rural turnout at the expense of turnout in Milwaukee, Madison, Racine and Kenosha as well as the growing Democratic turnout in the WOW counties. This was a factor in Trump’s 2016 upset win in Wisconsin, a feat Trump could not replicate in 2020 as the WOW counties shifted left. Local conservative talk radio stations such as WISN (1130) and the late morning and midday shows of WTMJ (620) have long targeted their programs' topics and talking points more to the WOW counties rather than their city of license, Milwaukee.[10] [11] [12] [13]

Election history

The Wow counties as a collective have voted for 20 of the 21 most recent Republican presidential campaigns, and in the most recent election that the Democratic Party took the region, Barry Goldwater lost by about 6.5% in an election where he lost Wisconsin by a margin of roughly 24.3%.

Presidential election results[14]
YearRepublicanDemocratic
202060.88% 253,78037.67% 157,029
201660.92% 224,74732.59% 120,246
201267.03% 253,64032.00% 121,104
200862.40% 225,05336.50% 131,637
200467.57% 240,47131.63% 112,574
200065.65% 205,42231.15% 97,464
1996[15] 55.15% 139,63634.67% 87,777
199250.34% 137,00527.74% 75,488
198861.13% 137,69438.25% 86,166
198466.13% 141,60333.18% 71,044
198058.81% 125,64332.92% 70,335
197658.34% 109,03339.15% 73,180
197260.29% 90,49635.65% 53,510
196855.48% 72,15136.37% 47,297
196446.59% 53,27453.24% 60,876
196057.73% 61,23342.16% 44,714
195669.86% 57,18729.42% 24,082
195267.67% 51,52932.33% 24,437
194855.13% 29,06644.87% 22,606
194460.88% 32,57139.12% 20,457
194057.91% 30,14042.09% 21,204

Notes and References

  1. Web site: Workforce observations for Milwaukee County/WOW counties (May 2004). Wisconsin Digital Archives. en. December 4, 2017. May 2004. December 4, 2017. https://web.archive.org/web/20171204222910/http://www.wistatedocuments.org/digital/collection/p267601coll4/id/2207/. live.
  2. Web site: State & County QuickFacts. United States Census Bureau. February 9, 2021. September 11, 2023. https://web.archive.org/web/20230911210616/https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/map/WI,US/POP010220. live.
  3. News: Base Politics: Why Scott Walker's current troubles were entirely predictable. February 23, 2015. Slate. December 3, 2017. December 4, 2017. https://web.archive.org/web/20171204061342/http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2015/02/scott_walker_has_always_played_to_his_political_base_the_wisconsin_governor.html. live.
  4. Web site: The 'WOW' counties, explained: How Milwaukee suburbs could swing Wisconsin's midterm elections. The ‘WOW’ counties, explained: How Milwaukee suburbs could swing Wisconsin’s midterm elections – The Daily Cardinal. June 13, 2024.
  5. Web site: The 'WOW' counties suburbs are diverging politically, as some get redder and others grow increasingly purple. Craig. Gilbert. Journal Sentinel. June 13, 2024. August 23, 2023. https://web.archive.org/web/20230823213033/https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/analysis/2020/11/20/some-milwaukee-suburbs-getting-redder-others-shift-purple/6343721002/. live.
  6. Web site: 2008 Presidential General Election Results – Wisconsin. April 12, 2022. May 21, 2022. https://web.archive.org/web/20220521052217/https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=2008&fips=55&f=0&off=0&elect=0. live.
  7. Web site: The 'WOW' counties suburbs are diverging politically, as some get redder and others grow increasingly purple . August 23, 2023 . Journal Sentinel . en-US . August 23, 2023 . https://web.archive.org/web/20230823213033/https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/analysis/2020/11/20/some-milwaukee-suburbs-getting-redder-others-shift-purple/6343721002/ . live .
  8. News: December 17, 2014 . Wisconsin Election Results: Scott Walker Wins Re-election . en-US . . April 13, 2023 .
  9. Web site: Schneider . Christian . In the Trump era, Waukesha County remains as crucial as ever for Republicans . April 13, 2023 . Journal Sentinel . en-US . May 28, 2023 . https://web.archive.org/web/20230528085432/https://www.jsonline.com/story/opinion/columnists/christian-schneider/2018/08/17/trump-era-waukesha-county-remains-crucial-gop/1010381002/ . live .
  10. Web site: Wisconsin's Swing State Status Hinges on "WOW" Counties. CBS 58. December 3, 2017. December 4, 2017. https://web.archive.org/web/20171204061240/https://www.cbs58.com/news/wisconsins-swing-state-status-hinges-on-wow-counties. live.
  11. News: Wisconsin Senate GOP leader predicts 'WOW' counties will lead Donald Trump to victory. Jessie. Opoien. The Capital Times. October 6, 2016. December 4, 2017. en. December 4, 2017. https://web.archive.org/web/20171204222907/http://host.madison.com/ct/news/local/govt-and-politics/election-matters/wisconsin-senate-gop-leader-predicts-wow-counties-will-lead-donald/article_1c1c8714-1404-509d-876d-71bb40c07394.html. live.
  12. News: How And Where Trump Won Wisconsin in 2016. November 18, 2016. WisContext. December 4, 2017. en. December 4, 2017. https://web.archive.org/web/20171204171216/https://www.wiscontext.org/how-and-where-trump-won-wisconsin-2016. live.
  13. News: Reporter: Trump Still Struggling With Conservative Vote In State's Most Republican Counties. October 3, 2016. Wisconsin Public Radio. December 4, 2017. en. December 4, 2017. https://web.archive.org/web/20171204171249/https://www.wpr.org/reporter-trump-still-struggling-conservative-vote-states-most-republican-counties. live.
  14. Web site: More Wisconsin Elections Results. Wisconsin Elections Commission. June 24, 2020. October 14, 2016. https://web.archive.org/web/20161014185231/http://elections.wi.gov/elections-voting/results-all. live.
  15. Web site: Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections . April 12, 2022 . February 22, 2011 . https://web.archive.org/web/20110222105145/http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/ . live .