2018 Vermont gubernatorial election explained

Election Name:2018 Vermont gubernatorial election
Country:Vermont
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Turnout:55.6%
Previous Election:2016 Vermont gubernatorial election
Previous Year:2016
Next Election:2020 Vermont gubernatorial election
Next Year:2020
Election Date:November 6, 2018
Image1:File:Phil Scott 2017 (cropped).jpg
Nominee1:Phil Scott
Party1:Republican Party (United States)
Percentage1:55.19%
Popular Vote1:151,261
Nominee2:Christine Hallquist
Party2:Democratic Party (United States)
Percentage2:40.25%
Popular Vote2:110,335
Governor
Before Election:Phil Scott
Before Party:Republican Party (United States)
After Election:Phil Scott
After Party:Republican Party (United States)

The 2018 Vermont gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the Governor of Vermont, concurrently with the election of Vermont's Class I U.S. Senate seat, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Republican Governor Phil Scott, who was first elected in 2016, was re-elected to a second term in office.[1] Hallquist's 40.3% was also the worst performance for a Democratic Party candidate since 2008. This was one of eight Republican-held governorships up for election in a state that Hillary Clinton won in the 2016 presidential election.

Despite initial expectations of a potentially close race due to national blue wave, Scott easily won reelection in what became a difficult year for Republicans, winning by 15 percentage points. As of 2022, this election marked the last time a Democratic candidate won a county in a gubernatorial election in Vermont.

Background

Along with New Hampshire, Vermont is one of only two states where governors are elected to two-year terms. Republican Phil Scott was elected in the 2016 election.[1]

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Eliminated in primary

Endorsements

Debates and forums

Results

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominated

Eliminated in primary

Debates and forums

Results

With this result, Christine Hallquist became the first openly transgender candidate for governor nominated by a major political party in the United States.[9] [10]

Progressive primary

Candidates

Eliminated in primary

Write-in

Debates and forums

Results

[11]

Libertarian nomination

Candidates

Withdrawn

Liberty Union nomination

Candidates

Declared

Independents

Candidates

Declared

Write-in

Withdrawn

General election

Debates

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[20] October 26, 2018
The Washington Post[21] November 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEight[22] November 5, 2018
Rothenberg Political Report[23] November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[24] November 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics[25] November 4, 2018
Daily Kos[26] November 5, 2018
Fox News[27] November 5, 2018
Politico[28] November 5, 2018
Governing[29] November 5, 2018

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Phil
Scott (R)		Christine
Hallquist (D)		OtherUndecided
Gravis MarketingOctober 30 – November 1, 2018885± 3.3% align=center49%39%–12%
Braun ResearchOctober 5–14, 2018495± 4.4% align=center42%28%7%[30] 22%
Tulchin Research (D-Vermont Democratic Party) September 23–26, 2018406± 4.9% align=center50%42%––

Results

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

External links

Official campaign websites

Notes and References

  1. Web site: Hallenbeck. Terri. Heintz. Paul. Republican Phil Scott Elected Governor of Vermont. Seven Days. November 9, 2016. November 27, 2016.
  2. News: Vermont Gubernatorial Candidate Keith Stern Discusses His Campaign. Bradley. Pat. 2018-04-09. 2018-04-10. https://web.archive.org/web/20180410072055/http://wamc.org/post/vermont-gubernatorial-candidate-keith-stern-discusses-his-campaign. dead.
  3. Web site: Evans. Brad. Transgender woman to run for governor of Vermont. WPTZ. en. February 19, 2018.
  4. News: In first, transgender woman wins Democratic nomination for Vermont.... Daniel. Trotta. reuters.com. 15 August 2018 .
  5. News: Water Quality Advocate James Ehlers To Run For Governor, As Democrat. Hirschfeld. Peter. 2017-08-03. en.
  6. News: YCN Vermont Wrap with Keith Hanson 6/16/18. 2018-06-16. YCN Now. 2018-07-18. en-US.
  7. Web site: Walters. John. Walters: Anti-Poverty Advocate Launches Bid for Vermont Governor. Seven Days. en. May 8, 2018.
  8. Web site: Thirteen-year-old runs for Governor of Vermont . August 24, 2017 . Burlington Free Press . August 31, 2017.
  9. Web site: Transgender candidate makes history with win in Vermont governor primary. ABC News. 15 August 2018.
  10. Web site: Christine Hallquist, a Transgender Woman, Wins Vermont Governor's Primary. The New York Times. August 14, 2018. Jess. Bidgood.
  11. Web site:

    Vermont Election Night Results ::

    . vtelectionresults.sec.state.vt.us. 2018-08-15. 2017-08-11. https://web.archive.org/web/20170811143454/https://vtelectionresults.sec.state.vt.us/Index.html. dead.
  12. Web site: 2018 Vermont Libertarian Party Convention Summary. 2018-05-03. 2018-07-23. 2018-07-24. https://web.archive.org/web/20180724094634/https://vtlp.org/blog/5503/vermont-libertarian-party-convention-summary/. dead.
  13. Web site: Archived copy . 2018-08-13 . 2018-08-14 . https://web.archive.org/web/20180814001656/https://www.sec.state.vt.us/media/914034/2018-general-election-candidate-listing.xlsx . dead .
  14. Web site: Candidates - Elections - Vermont Secretary of State. www.sec.state.vt.us. 2018-08-12. 2016-06-01. https://web.archive.org/web/20160601103059/https://www.sec.state.vt.us/elections/candidates.aspx. dead.
  15. Web site: Kaiser . Jonas . How YouTube helps form homogeneous online communities . Brookings.edu . 23 December 2020 . 25 December 2022.
  16. Web site: Daro . Ishmael . Lytvyneko . Jane . Right-Wing YouTubers Think It's Only A Matter Of Time Before They Get Kicked Off The Site . Buzzfeed News . 25 December 2022.
  17. News: Thompson . Stuart . The far right complains after the search engine DuckDuckGo vows to limit Russian propaganda. . The New York Times . 11 March 2022 . 25 December 2022.
  18. Web site: YouTube Star Styxhexenhammer - aka Tarl Warwick - Running for Vermont Governor. thegoldwater.com. 2018-08-15. 2018-08-15. https://web.archive.org/web/20180815164727/http://www.thegoldwater.com/news/23002-YouTube-Star-Styxhexenhammer-aka-Tarl-Warwick-Running-for-Vermont-Governor. dead.
  19. Web site: Barney joins Vermont governor's race as independent. burlingtonfreepress.com.
  20. Web site: 2018 Governor Race Ratings for October 26, 2018. The Cook Political Report. en. 2021-04-10.
  21. News: The Washington Post's gubernatorial race ratings. The Washington Post. October 16, 2018.
  22. Web site: 2018 Governor Forecast FiveThirtyEight. FiveThirtyEight. 17 October 2018. en. October 17, 2018.
  23. Web site: 2018 Gubernatorial Ratings Inside Elections. insideelections.com. en. 2017-11-15.
  24. Web site: Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2018 Governor. www.centerforpolitics.org. en-US. 2017-11-15.
  25. Web site: 2018 Governor Races. RealClearPolitics. October 9, 2018.
  26. Web site: 2018 Governor Race Ratings. Daily Kos. June 5, 2018.
  27. Web site: 2018 Midterm Power Ranking. Fox News. 10 October 2021.
  28. Web site: Politico Race Ratings. Politico.
  29. Web site: 2018 Governor Elections: As November Nears, More Governors' Races Become Tossups . www.governing.com . en . 2018-07-18 . October 21, 2018 . https://web.archive.org/web/20181021005343/http://www.governing.com/topics/politics/gov-governors-races-july-ratings.html . dead .
  30. Trevor Barlow (I), Cris Ericson (I), Charles Laramie (I), and Emily Peyton (LU) with 1%; none/write in/other with 3%

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