2016 Vermont gubernatorial election explained

Election Name:	2016 Vermont gubernatorial election
Country:	Vermont
Type:	presidential
Ongoing:	no
Previous Election:	2014 Vermont gubernatorial election
Previous Year:	2014
Next Election:	2018 Vermont gubernatorial election
Next Year:	2018
Election Date:	November 8, 2016
Image1:	File:Phil Scott.jpg
Nominee1:	Phil Scott
Party1:	Republican Party (United States)
Popular Vote1:	166,817
Percentage1:	52.90%
Nominee2:	Sue Minter
Party2:	Democratic Party (United States)
Popular Vote2:	139,253
Percentage2:	44.17%
Governor
Before Election:	Peter Shumlin
Before Party:	Democratic Party (United States)
After Election:	Phil Scott
After Party:	Republican Party (United States)

The 2016 Vermont gubernatorial election took place on November 8, 2016, and elected the governor of Vermont, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.Incumbent Democratic Governor Peter Shumlin was eligible to run for re-election to a fourth term in office, but opted to retire instead.^[1]

The primaries were held on August 9.^[2] Former Vermont Agency of Transportation Secretary Sue Minter won the Democratic nomination, and Lieutenant Governor Phil Scott won the Republican primary,^[3] with Scott defeating Minter in the general election. This was the first gubernatorial election in Vermont in which the winner was of a different party than the incumbent president since 1992.

Background

Two-term Democratic Governor Peter Shumlin ran for re-election in 2014 and was widely expected to win easily. However, he only took a plurality of the vote, 46.36%, to Republican Scott Milne's 45.1%, and thus the result was decided by the Vermont General Assembly. The Assembly picked Shumlin by 110 votes to 69. Shumlin announced in June 2015 that he would not run for a fourth term.^[4]

Vermont and New Hampshire are the only states in the country whose governors are elected every two years.

Democratic primary

In August, Vermont House Speaker Shap Smith announced that he would be a candidate,^[5] but ended his candidacy in November 2015, after his wife was diagnosed with breast cancer.^[6] In September, Matt Dunne announced that he would also be a candidate.^[7] Also in September, former state legislator Sue Minter, then serving as Vermont's Secretary of Transportation, announced that she would resign her position in order to join the Democratic race.^[8] Former Ambassador Peter Galbraith announced his candidacy in March 2016.^[9]

In July, H. Brook Paige was excluded from official Democratic Party events after making derogatory comments on social media.^[10]

Minter won the nomination decisively, and was endorsed by Dunne but not Galbraith.^[11]

Candidates

Declared

• Matt Dunne, former state senator, Google executive, and candidate for governor in 2010^[12]
• Cris Ericson, perennial candidate (also running for the U.S. Senate)^[13]
• Peter W. Galbraith, former state senator and former United States Ambassador to Croatia^{[9] [14]}
• Sue Minter, former secretary of the Vermont Agency of Transportation and former state representative^[15]
• H. Brooke Paige, former CEO of Remington News Service, candidate for Governor and Attorney General in 2014 and Republican candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2012 (also ran for Attorney General)^[16]

Withdrawn

• Shap Smith, Speaker of the Vermont House of Representatives^{[17] [18]} (running for Lieutenant Governor)

Declined

• T.J. Donovan, Chittenden County state's attorney and candidate for Vermont Attorney General in 2012 (running for Vermont Attorney General)^[19]
• Deborah Markowitz, secretary of the Vermont Agency of Natural Resources, former Secretary of State of Vermont and candidate for governor in 2010^[20]
• Doug Racine, former secretary of the Vermont Agency of Human Services, former lieutenant governor, nominee for governor in 2002 and candidate for governor in 2010^[21]
• Peter Shumlin, incumbent governor^[1]
• Peter Welch, U.S. Representative and nominee for governor in 1990^[22]

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	class=small	Sample size	class=small	Margin of error	Matt Dunne	Sue Minter	Peter Galbraith	Other/Undecided
	June 26–29, 2016	217	± 6.7%	31%	align=center	36%	8%	25%
Castleton Polling Institute	February 3–17, 2016	895	± 3.27%	align=center	19%	11%	–	69%

Results

Republican primary

In September 2015, Lieutenant Governor Phil Scott entered the race,^[23] and 2014 gubernatorial nominee Scott Milne, who had been considering running, endorsed Scott.^[24] In October 2015, retired Wall Street executive Bruce Lisman officially announced his "outsider" candidacy.^[25]

Scott was endorsed by most active Vermont Republican politicians, and held a strong lead in a February poll.^[26] Lisman's campaign criticized Scott for being too closely connected to outgoing Democratic governor Peter Shumlin and for "plagiarizing" Lisman's ideas, and linked Scott to the "failures" of the Vermont Health Connect insurance platform and the school redistricting Act 46;^{[27] [28] [29]} the candidates' campaigns disagreed over whether this constituted "negative campaigning," and Scott's campaign said the attacks were "patently false".

Scott won the nomination by a large margin.^[30]

Candidates

Declared

• Bruce Lisman, retired Wall Street executive^[31]
• Phil Scott, Lieutenant Governor^{[32] [33]}

Declined

• Randy Brock, former state senator, former Vermont Auditor of Accounts and nominee for governor in 2012 (running for lieutenant governor)^[34]

Endorsements

On May 6, 2016, Scott received the endorsements of all Vermont Republican legislators (listed above) except State Representatives Donald Turner, Doug Gage, Mary Morrissey, Job Tate, and Paul Dame.^[35] Among those five legislators who did not endorse Scott, four said they always remain neutral in a party primary election, and one was waiting until after the filing deadline to make an endorsement.^[36]

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	class=small	Sample size	class=small	Margin of error	Phil Scott	Bruce Lisman	Other/Undecided
	June 26–29, 2016	171	± 7.5%	align="center"	68%	23%	9%
Castleton Polling Institute	February 3–17, 2016	895	± 3.27%	align=center	42%	4%	53%

Results

Liberty Union primary

Candidates

Declared

• Bill "Spaceman" Lee, former Major League Baseball pitcher and Rhinoceros Party presidential candidate in 1988^[37]

Results

General election

Debates

• Complete video of debate, October 6, 2016 - C-SPAN

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
align=left	The Cook Political Report^[38]		August 12, 2016
align=left	Daily Kos^[39]		November 8, 2016
align=left	Rothenberg Political Report^[40]		November 3, 2016
align=left	Sabato's Crystal Ball^[41]		November 7, 2016
align=left	Real Clear Politics^[42]		November 1, 2016
align=left	Governing^[43]		October 27, 2016

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	class=small	Sample size	Margin of error	Sue Minter (D)	Phil Scott (R)	Bill Lee (LU)	Undecided
SurveyMonkey	November 1–7, 2016	454	± 4.6%	align=center	51%	47%	—	2%
SurveyMonkey	October 31–November 6, 2016	447	± 4.6%	align=center	50%	48%	—	2%
SurveyMonkey	October 28–November 3, 2016	449	± 4.6%	46%	align=center	51%	—	3%
SurveyMonkey	October 27–November 2, 2016	424	± 4.6%	44%	align=center	53%	—	3%
SurveyMonkey	October 26–November 1, 2016	428	± 4.6%	43%	align=center	54%	—	3%
SurveyMonkey	October 25–31, 2016	436	± 4.6%	45%	align=center	52%	—	3%
RRH Elections	October 24–26, 2016	1,052	± 3.0%	38%	align=center	45%	4%	13%
Braun Research/WCAX	October 19–22, 2016	603	± 4.0%	40%	align=center	47%	6%	9%
	September 29–October 14, 2016	579	± 3.9%	38%	align=center	39%	7%	14% Results Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican Addison (largest municipality: Middlebury) Bennington (largest municipality: Bennington) External links Live results from the Vermont Secretary of State Official candidate websites Sue Minter (D) for Governor Phil Scott (R) for Governor

Notes and References

1. Web site: Shumlin Announces He Won't Seek Reelection in 2016. Seven Days. Paul Heintz. Terri Hallenbeck. June 8, 2015. June 13, 2015.
2. Web site: Elections – Vermont Secretary of State . sec.state.vt.us . 2016-04-25 . 2016-05-27 . 2016-06-01 . https://web.archive.org/web/20160601103059/https://www.sec.state.vt.us/elections/candidates.aspx . dead .
3. Web site: Freese . Alicia . Hallenbeck . Terri . Live Coverage of the Vermont Primary Results . Seven Days . 8 August 2016 . 10 August 2016.
4. News: Shumlin decides against 2016 re-election bid . Burlington Free Press . June 8, 2015 . June 8, 2015.
5. News: August 14, 2015 . Shap Smith wants to Succeed Peter Shumlin as next Vermont Governor . The Times Argus . Barre, VT . July 2, 2016 . February 15, 2016 . https://web.archive.org/web/20160215202213/http://www.timesargus.com/article/20150814/NEWS03/708149951 . dead .
6. News: Burbank . April . November 17, 2015 . Shap Smith Suspends Campaign for Governor . Burlington Free Press . Burlington, VT.
7. News: Gram . David . Associated Press . September 2, 2015 . Google Executive Matt Dunne Running for Vermont Governor . Portland Press Herald . Portland, ME.
8. News: Hallenbeck . Terri . September 10, 2015 . Sue Minter to Run for Vermont Governor . Seven Days . Shelburne, VT.
9. Web site: Peter Galbraith announces bid for Vermont governor. Burlington Free Press. March 22, 2016. April 14, 2016. Jess. Aloe.
10. Web site: Craven . Jasper . Vermont Democratic Party bans gubernatorial candidate from events . VTDigger . July 1, 2016 . July 2, 2016.
11. Web site: Johnson . Mark . Hewitt . Elizabeth . Faher . Mike . Minter cruises to Democratic nomination for governor . VTDigger . 9 August 2016 . 10 August 2016.
12. Web site: Dunne announces run for governor. The Burlington Free Press. Paris Achen. September 2, 2015. October 1, 2015.
13. Web site: Voters to see familiar faces and new races . . 30 May 2016 . https://web.archive.org/web/20160530192403/http://www.rutlandherald.com/article/20160527/THISJUSTIN/305279996 . 30 May 2016 . dead . dmy-all .
14. Web site: Shumlin's Retirement Launches 2016 Gubernatorial Race. Seven Days. Paul Heintz. June 8, 2015. June 13, 2015.
15. Web site: Sue Minter to Run for Vermont Governor. Seven Days. Terri Hallenbeck. September 10, 2015. September 20, 2015.
16. Web site: Paige opens 2016 gubernatorial race. Rutland Herald. Josh O'Gorman. June 17, 2015. June 25, 2015. June 26, 2015. https://web.archive.org/web/20150626101942/http://www.rutlandherald.com/article/20150617/NEWS03/706179955. dead.
17. Web site: Analysis: Should Shap step down as speaker?. Burlington Free Press. Paris Achen. August 22, 2015. August 22, 2015.
18. Web site: Shap Smith Suspends His Bid for Governor. Seven Days. Paris Achen. November 17, 2015. November 17, 2015.
19. Web site: Donovan to run for Attorney General again. Barre Montpelier Times Argus. NealGoswami. June 23, 2015. June 25, 2015. June 26, 2015. https://web.archive.org/web/20150626143431/http://www.timesargus.com/article/20150623/NEWS03/706239951. dead.
20. Web site: Markowitz Won't Run for Governor. Seven Days. Paul Heintz. June 11, 2015. June 13, 2015.
21. Web site: Doug Racine Won't Run for Gov, Backs Sue Minter. Seven Days. Terri Hallenbeck. September 21, 2015. October 1, 2015.
22. Web site: Vermont Rep. Welch Won't Run for Governor. Roll Call. Simone Pathé. June 26, 2015. June 26, 2015. June 28, 2015. https://web.archive.org/web/20150628071631/http://atr.rollcall.com/vermont-congressman-welch-not-running-for-governor/?dcz=. dead.
23. Web site: Hallenbeck . Terri . Phil Scott Says He Is Ready to Announce Run for Vermont Governor . Seven Days . Sep 7, 2015 . Jul 2, 2016.
24. Web site: Hallenbeck . Terri . Scott Milne Backs Phil Scott for Governor . Seven Days . Sep 29, 2015 . Jul 2, 2016.
25. Web site: Dobbs . Taylor . Lisman Launches Outsider Campaign For Governor . Vermont Public Radio . 19 October 2015 . 21 May 2016.
26. Web site: Poll shows Scott leading in governor's race . Times Argus . 23 February 2016 . 2 July 2016 . 10 August 2016 . https://web.archive.org/web/20160810085705/http://www.timesargus.com/article/20160223/NEWS03/160229883 . dead .
27. Web site: Are some Vt. campaigns going negative? . Ogerman . Josh . Times Argus . 5 June 2016 . 2 July 2016 . 7 June 2016 . https://web.archive.org/web/20160607051105/http://www.timesargus.com/article/20160605/NEWS01/160609788 . dead .
28. Web site: Campaign strategies taking shape . Times Argus . 26 June 2016 . 2 July 2016 . 10 August 2016 . https://web.archive.org/web/20160810084812/http://www.timesargus.com/article/20160626/NEWS03/160629724/0/D . dead .
29. Web site: Hallenbeck . Terri . Lisman, Scott Campaigns Clash Over New Flier. Seven Days . 30 May 2016 . 2 July 2016.
30. Web site: Burbank . April . Phil Scott claims GOP primary victory for governor . Burlington Free Press . 9 August 2016 . 10 August 2016.
31. Web site: Lisman makes 2016 Republican gubernatorial bid official. VTDigger.org. Morgan True. September 1, 2015. September 1, 2015.
32. Web site: Lt. Gov. Phil Scott weighs run for governor. WCAX-TV. Kristin Kelly. Darren Perron. May 28, 2015. June 13, 2015. https://web.archive.org/web/20150614093756/http://www.wcax.com/story/29183603/lt-gov-phil-scott-weighs-run-for-governor. June 14, 2015. dead.
33. Web site: Scott Pins Gubernatorial Campaign on 'Fiscal Responsibility'. sevendaysvt.com. Terri Hallenbeck. September 8, 2015. September 8, 2015.
34. Web site: Randy Brock to Run for Lieutenant Governor. Seven Days. Paul Heintz. October 1, 2015. October 1, 2015.
35. Web site: Kyle Midura on Twitter. Twitter. 2016-05-06.
36. Web site: Republican legislators endorse Phil Scott for governor. Vermont Business Magazine. 2016-05-06.
37. Web site: Vermont's Most Famous Former Baseball Player's Pitch For Governor . . 25 May 2016 . https://web.archive.org/web/20160527023319/http://www.wcax.com/story/32043285/vermonts-most-famous-former-baseball-players-pitch-for-governor . 27 May 2016 . dead . dmy-all.
38. Web site: 2016 Governor Race ratings . The Cook Political Report . October 15, 2018.
39. Web site: Elections 2015-16 . Daily Kos . October 15, 2018 .
40. Web site: Gubernatorial Ratings . The Rothenberg Political Report . October 15, 2018.
41. Web site: Our Final 2016 picks . Sabato's Crystal Ball . October 15, 2018 . October 15, 2018 . https://web.archive.org/web/20181015114619/http://crystalball.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/our-final-2016-picks/ . dead .
42. Web site: 2016 Election Maps - 2016 Governor Races . Real Clear Politics . October 15, 2018.
43. Web site: 2016 Governors Races Ratings & News. Governing Magazine. October 28, 2016. October 27, 2016. https://web.archive.org/web/20161027090343/http://www.governing.com/governor-races-2016. dead.