2008 United States presidential election in West Virginia explained

Election Name:2008 United States presidential election in West Virginia
Country:West Virginia
Flag Year:2008
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2004 United States presidential election in West Virginia
Previous Year:2004
Next Election:2012 United States presidential election in West Virginia
Next Year:2012
Election Date:November 4, 2008
Image1:John McCain 2009 Official.jpg
Nominee1:John McCain
Party1:Republican Party (United States)
Home State1:Arizona
Running Mate1:Sarah Palin
Electoral Vote1:5
Popular Vote1:397,466
Percentage1:55.60%
Party2:Democratic Party (United States)
Home State2:Illinois
Running Mate2:Joe Biden
Electoral Vote2:0
Popular Vote2:303,857
Percentage2:42.51%
President
Before Election:George W. Bush
Before Party:Republican Party (United States)
After Election:Barack Obama
After Party:Democratic Party (United States)

The 2008 United States presidential election in West Virginia took place on November 4, 2008, and was part of the 2008 United States presidential election. Voters chose 5 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

West Virginia was won by Republican nominee John McCain by a 13.1% margin of victory. Prior to the election, all 17 news organizations considered this a state McCain would win, or otherwise considered as a safe red state. Despite its past voting record of heavily favoring Democratic presidential nominees, the state had since 2000 been trending more Republican in presidential elections. Obama became the first Democratic presidential nominee since Woodrow Wilson in 1916 to win the nationwide presidential election without carrying West Virginia, and in that election Wilson had managed to win a single electoral vote, making Obama the first Democrat to win without carrying any electoral votes from the state. Obama also became the first Democrat since 1928 to lose Logan County, a strongly unionized coal-dependent county that was the only county in West Virginia to vote for George McGovern in his landslide 1972 loss.

This is the last time that the Republican presidential nominee failed to win every county in West Virginia, & marked the first time since 1924 in which West Virginia voted for the Republican presidential candidate while neighboring Virginia voted for the Democratic presidential candidate. This is the last presidential election in which the Democratic nominee received more than 40% of the vote in West Virginia. West Virginia was one of five states where Obama underperformed Kerry, the others being Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, and Tennessee.

Primaries

Campaign

Predictions

There were 16 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day:

!Source!Ranking
D.C. Political Report[1]
Cook Political Report[2]
The Takeaway[3]
Electoral-vote.com[4]
The Washington PostWashington Post[5]
Politico[6]
RealClearPolitics[7]
FiveThirtyEight
CQ Politics[8]
The New York Times[9]
CNN[10]
NPR
MSNBC
Fox News[11]
Associated Press[12]
Rasmussen Reports[13]

Polling

McCain lead in 16 of 17 pre-election polls. The final three polls showed McCain leading by an average of 53% to 41%.[14]

Fundraising

John McCain raised a total of $291,184 in the state. Barack Obama raised $713,231.

Advertising and visits

Obama and his interest groups spent $1,437,178. McCain and his interest groups spent $1,920,720.[15] Each ticket visited the state once.[16]

Analysis

More than any other state, West Virginia highlighted Obama's trouble in Appalachian America. It swung heavily to the Democrats during the days of Franklin D. Roosevelt and remained reliably Democratic for most of the next 68 years. During that time, it only voted Republican three times, all in national Republican landslides--1956, 1972 and 1984. It also voted for Democrats (such as Jimmy Carter and Michael Dukakis) who went on to big national defeats. This was largely due to its blue-collar, heavily unionized workers, especially coal miners, who favored Democratic economic policy.

Starting with the campaign of Al Gore, however, the state's voters became more concerned with the national Democratic Party's perceived hostility toward the coal industry, which is a core part of the West Virginia economy. As a result, the state has been trending Republican in national elections. In 2008, neither presidential nominee campaigned heavily in the state.

Election results

On Election Day, McCain won West Virginia by 13.09 points while losing nationwide. McCain did well throughout the state, losing only a handful of counties. While his margins were best in the more conservative northern part of the state, he also improved significantly in Southern West Virginia. This coal-mining, union-heavy region was one of the most heavily Democratic places in the nation; Logan County, for example, cast 72% of its ballot for Bill Clinton.[17] In 2008, however, John McCain won the county by double digits, becoming the first Republican to win it since Herbert Hoover in 1928.

On the other hand, Barack Obama did make gains in the area between Maryland and Virginia, counties which are a part of the Washington Metropolitan Area. Obama also ran close in Central West Virginia (the counties around the capital Charleston). Despite the recent Republican success nationally, Democrats still dominated at the state and local levels. After the 2008 election, Democrats held the governorship and every statewide office, two out of the state's three congressional districts in the U.S. House of Representatives, both U.S. Senate seats and supermajorities in both chambers of the state legislature.[18]

Other elections

During the same election, popular incumbent Democratic Governor Joe Manchin III was soundly reelected to a second term with 69.79% of the vote over Republican Russ Weeks, who took in 25.75%, while Jesse Johnson of the Mountain Party received 4.46%. Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Jay Rockefeller IV was also soundly reelected with 63.71% of the vote over Republican Jay Wolfe, who took in 36.27%. At the state level, Democrats picked up three seats in the West Virginia Senate, while Republicans picked up one seat in the West Virginia House of Delegates.

Results

|- class="vcard"| style="background-color: ; width: 5px;" || class="org" | | class="fn" colspan="2" | Various candidates| style="text-align: right; margin-right: 0.5em" | 1,761| style="text-align: right; margin-right: 0.5em" | 0.25%| style="text-align: right; margin-right: 0.5em" | 0| style="text-align: right; margin-right: 0.5em" | 0.00%| style="text-align: right; margin-right: 0.5em" | 0.24%|-

By county

CountyJohn McCain
Republican
Barack Obama
Democratic
Various candidates
Other parties
MarginTotal
%%%%
Barbour3,68559.13%2,41938.82%1282.06%1,26620.31%6,232
Berkeley20,84155.72%15,99442.76%5651.51%4,84712.96%37,400
Boone3,63243.39%4,52954.11%2092.50%-897-10.72%8,370
Braxton2,62948.55%2,70449.94%821.52%-75-1.39%5,415
Brooke4,96150.33%4,71747.85%1791.81%2442.48%9,857
Cabell18,79354.11%15,29244.03%6471.86%3,50110.08%34,732
Calhoun1,36656.24%99340.88%702.88%37315.36%2,429
Clay1,75553.75%1,42143.52%892.73%33410.23%3,265
Doddridge2,21873.49%73524.35%652.16%1,48349.14%3,018
Fayette7,65850.40%7,24247.66%2941.94%4162.74%15,194
Gilmer1,44557.32%1,00439.83%722.85%44117.49%2,521
Grant3,16675.06%99723.64%551.30%2,16951.42%4,218
Greenbrier7,56755.10%5,88142.83%2842.07%1,68612.27%13,732
Hampshire5,22262.56%2,98335.74%1421.70%2,23926.82%8,347
Hancock7,51856.87%5,50441.63%1981.50%2,01415.24%13,220
Hardy3,37662.44%1,90135.16%1302.40%1,47527.28%5,407
Harrison17,82455.56%13,58242.34%6722.10%4,24213.22%32,078
Jackson7,14858.42%4,86139.73%2271.85%2,28718.69%12,236
Jefferson10,60046.78%11,68751.58%3721.64%-1,087-4.80%22,659
Kanawha40,95249.41%40,59448.98%1,3411.61%3580.43%82,887
Lewis4,33565.60%2,10931.92%1642.48%2,22633.68%6,608
Lincoln3,63753.21%3,02944.32%1692.47%6088.89%6,835
Logan7,32654.17%5,87343.43%3252.40%1,45310.74%13,524
Marion11,50148.45%11,61848.94%6212.61%-117-0.49%23,740
Marshall7,75955.42%5,99642.83%2461.75%1,76312.59%14,001
Mason5,85355.20%4,48442.29%2662.51%1,36912.91%10,603
McDowell2,88244.82%3,43053.34%1181.84%-548-8.52%6,430
Mercer13,24662.81%7,45035.33%3931.86%5,79627.48%21,089
Mineral7,61665.96%3,75032.48%1811.56%3,86633.48%11,547
Mingo4,58755.01%3,58242.96%1692.03%1,00512.05%8,338
Monongalia15,77546.99%17,06050.82%7342.19%-1,285-3.83%33,569
Monroe3,39760.93%2,01436.13%1642.94%1,38324.80%5,575
Morgan4,42860.86%2,72137.40%1271.74%1,70723.46%7,276
Nicholas4,80451.32%4,35746.54%2002.14%4474.78%9,361
Ohio10,69454.73%8,59343.98%2531.29%2,10110.75%19,540
Pendleton2,03559.94%1,31038.59%501.47%72521.35%3,395
Pleasants1,77259.56%1,14238.39%612.05%63021.17%2,975
Pocahontas2,01155.22%1,54842.50%832.28%46312.72%3,642
Preston7,32562.10%4,20535.65%2662.25%3,12026.45%11,796
Putnam15,16260.92%9,33437.51%3911.57%5,82823.41%24,887
Raleigh17,54862.10%10,23736.23%4741.67%7,31125.87%28,259
Randolph6,06055.94%4,53941.90%2342.16%1,52114.04%10,833
Ritchie2,78172.31%99825.95%671.74%1,78346.36%3,846
Roane2,94352.78%2,51145.03%1222.19%4327.75%5,576
Summers2,89154.38%2,29043.08%1352.54%60111.30%5,316
Taylor3,60558.12%2,46239.69%1362.19%1,14318.43%6,203
Tucker2,12360.54%1,28836.73%962.73%83523.81%3,507
Tyler2,41564.55%1,24133.17%852.28%1,17431.38%3,741
Upshur5,91165.89%2,92532.61%1351.50%2,98633.28%8,971
Wayne8,94757.98%6,13739.77%3462.25%2,81018.21%15,430
Webster1,38645.34%1,55250.77%1193.89%-166-5.43%3,057
Wetzel3,34251.78%2,94245.58%1702.62%4006.20%6,454
Wirt1,49664.32%78233.62%482.06%71430.70%2,326
Wood22,89663.38%12,57334.80%6571.82%10,32328.58%36,126
Wyoming4,62161.37%2,73536.32%1742.31%1,88625.05%7,530
Totals397,46655.58%303,85742.49%13,8001.93%93,60913.09%715,123

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional District

John McCain swept all three of the state's three congressional districts, including the two districts held by Democrats.

DistrictMcCainObamaRepresentative
56.77%41.51%Alan Mollohan
54.63%43.77%Shelley Moore Capito
55.76%42.29%Nick Rahall

Electors

See main article: List of 2008 United States presidential electors.

Technically the voters of West Virginia cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. West Virginia is allocated 5 electors because it has 3 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 5 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and their running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 5 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them.[19] An elector who votes for someone other than their candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 15, 2008, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

All 5 were pledged to John McCain and Sarah Palin:[20]

  1. Robert Fish
  2. Zane Lawhorn
  3. Catherine Sue McKinney
  4. Marti Riggall
  5. Theresa Waxman

Notes and References

  1. Web site: 2009-01-01. D.C.'s Political Report: The complete source for campaign summaries.. 2021-08-23. https://web.archive.org/web/20090101161206/http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/Predictions.html. 2009-01-01.
  2. Web site: 2015-05-05. Presidential. 2021-08-23. https://web.archive.org/web/20150505003043/http://cookpolitical.com/presidential. 2015-05-05.
  3. Web site: 2009-04-22. Vote 2008 - The Takeaway - Track the Electoral College vote predictions. 2021-08-23. https://web.archive.org/web/20090422070127/http://vote2008.thetakeaway.org/2008/09/20/track-the-electoral-college-vote-predictions/. 2009-04-22.
  4. Web site: Electoral-vote.com: President, Senate, House Updated Daily. 2021-08-23. electoral-vote.com.
  5. Based on Takeaway
  6. Web site: POLITICO's 2008 Swing State Map - POLITICO.com. 2016-09-22. www.politico.com.
  7. Web site: RealClearPolitics - Electoral Map. dead. https://web.archive.org/web/20080605003612/http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=5. 2008-06-05.
  8. Web site: CQ Presidential Election Maps, 2008. dead. https://web.archive.org/web/20090614004022/http://innovation.cq.com/prezMap08. June 14, 2009. December 20, 2009. CQ Politics.
  9. News: Nagourney. Adam. Zeleny. Jeff. Carter. Shan. 2008-11-04. The Electoral Map: Key States. The New York Times. May 26, 2010.
  10. News: 2008-10-31. October  - 2008  - CNN Political Ticker - CNN.com Blogs. CNN. May 26, 2010. 2010-06-19. https://web.archive.org/web/20100619013250/http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/10/. dead.
  11. News: April 27, 2010. Winning The Electoral College. Fox News.
  12. Web site: roadto270. 2016-09-22. hosted.ap.org.
  13. Web site: Election 2008: Electoral College Update - Rasmussen Reports. 2016-09-22. www.rasmussenreports.com.
  14. Web site: Election 2008 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections. David Leip. 14 January 2015.
  15. News: Map: Campaign Ad Spending - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com . CNN . May 26, 2010.
  16. News: Map: Campaign Candidate Visits - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com . CNN . May 26, 2010.
  17. News: Election Results 2008 . New York Times. dead . https://web.archive.org/web/20041103020223/http://usinfo.state.gov/products/pubs/history/ch13.htm . November 3, 2004 .
  18. News: Willis . Derek . Election Was Rough for Democrats. It Was Worse for West Virginia Democrats. . November 24, 2014 . . November 9, 2016.
  19. Web site: Electoral College . 2008-11-01 . . dead . https://web.archive.org/web/20081030041546/http://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/elections_ec.htm . October 30, 2008 .
  20. Web site: U. S. Electoral College 2008 Election - Certificates. 14 January 2015.