2004 United States presidential election in West Virginia explained

See main article: 2004 United States presidential election.

Election Name:2004 United States presidential election in West Virginia
Country:West Virginia
Flag Year:2004
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2000 United States presidential election in West Virginia
Previous Year:2000
Next Election:2008 United States presidential election in West Virginia
Next Year:2008
Election Date:November 2, 2004
Turnout:64.7% (of registered voters)
53.3% (of voting age population)
Image1:George-W-Bush.jpeg
Nominee1:George W. Bush
Party1:Republican Party (United States)
Home State1:Texas
Running Mate1:Dick Cheney
Electoral Vote1:5
Popular Vote1:423,778
Percentage1:56.06%
Nominee2:John Kerry
Party2:Democratic Party (United States)
Home State2:Massachusetts
Running Mate2:John Edwards
Electoral Vote2:0
Popular Vote2:326,541
Percentage2:43.20%
President
Before Election:George W. Bush
Before Party:Republican Party (United States)
After Election:George W. Bush
After Party:Republican Party (United States)
Map Size:300px

The 2004 United States presidential election in West Virginia took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 5 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

West Virginia was won by incumbent President George W. Bush by a 12.86% margin of victory. Prior to the election, 8 of 12 news organizations considered this a state Bush would win, or otherwise considered as a red state, while others considered it a swing state. Democratic President Bill Clinton easily won this state in 1992 and 1996, but Bush carried the state in 2000 with just 51.92% of the vote. West Virginia is the only state to vote against George H. W. Bush both times and vote for George W. Bush both times. On election day, President Bush won here with a 6.53% better margin than his performance in 2000, signaling that the state was trending Republican at the presidential level. This was despite the fact that more than 50% of the state's population were registered Democrats, and both senators were Democrats.

This also marked the last election in which West Virginia voted for the same presidential candidate as neighboring Virginia, and the first election since 1944 in which West Virginia voted more Republican than Virginia. In the four subsequent U.S. presidential races since 2004, the Republican nominee won West Virginia while the Democratic nominee won Virginia. This is the last presidential election in which Fayette County, Brooke County, Logan County, and Mingo County voted Democratic. Bush was the first Republican since William McKinley to carry West Virginia twice.

Campaign

Predictions

There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.[1]

!Source!Ranking
D.C. Political Report
Associated Press
CNN
Cook Political Report
Newsweek
New York Times
Rasmussen Reports
Research 2000
Washington Post
Washington Times
Zogby International
Washington Dispatch

Polling

Early on, pre-election polling showed the election as a pure toss up. But after September 14, Bush pulled away and reached 50% or higher in the polls. The final 3 poll average showed Bush leading 50% to 44%.[2]

Fundraising

Bush raised $527,380.[3] Kerry raised $627,425.[4]

Advertising and visits

Bush visited the state eight times; Kerry visited the state six times.[5] A total of between $100,000 and $550,000 was spent each week. As the election went on, both tickets spent less and less here each week.[6]

Analysis

More than any other state, West Virginia highlighted Kerry's trouble in Appalachian America. It swung heavily to the Democrats during the days of Franklin D. Roosevelt and remained reliably Democratic for most of the next 68 years. The state voted for Democrats (such as Jimmy Carter and Mike Dukakis) who went on to big national defeats. This was largely due to its blue-collar, heavily unionized workers, especially coal miners, who favored Democratic economic policy.

Starting with George W. Bush, however, the state's voters became more receptive to Republicans.

Results

By county

CountyGeorge W. Bush
Republican
John Kerry
Democratic
Various candidates
Other parties
MarginTotal
%%%%
Barbour4,00460.17%2,61039.22%410.62%1,39420.95%6,655
Berkeley21,29363.03%12,24436.24%2480.73%9,04926.79%33,785
Boone4,20741.25%5,93358.18%580.57%-1,726-16.93%10,198
Braxton2,98649.35%3,03550.16%300.50%-49-0.81%6,051
Brooke5,18948.17%5,49350.99%910.85%-304-2.82%10,773
Cabell21,03555.43%16,58343.70%3320.87%4,45211.73%37,950
Calhoun1,58854.97%1,26643.82%351.22%32211.15%2,889
Clay2,19853.98%1,83545.06%390.95%3638.92%4,072
Doddridge2,36274.30%80025.17%170.54%1,56249.13%3,179
Fayette7,88146.45%8,97152.87%1150.68%-1,090-6.42%16,967
Gilmer1,66558.38%1,15940.64%280.99%50617.74%2,852
Grant4,06380.50%96319.08%210.42%3,10061.42%5,047
Greenbrier8,35857.43%6,08441.81%1110.77%2,27415.62%14,553
Hampshire5,48968.65%2,45530.70%520.65%3,03437.95%7,996
Hancock7,29850.96%6,90648.22%1170.82%3922.74%14,321
Hardy3,63568.90%1,61730.65%240.46%2,01838.25%5,276
Harrison17,11155.94%13,23843.28%2390.79%3,87312.66%30,588
Jackson7,68658.41%5,38440.92%880.66%2,30217.49%13,158
Jefferson10,53952.71%9,30146.52%1530.77%1,2386.19%19,993
Kanawha44,43050.53%43,01048.92%4880.55%1,4201.61%87,928
Lewis4,44563.51%2,47535.36%791.13%1,97028.15%6,999
Lincoln4,10249.35%4,04848.70%1621.95%540.65%8,312
Logan7,04747.02%7,87752.56%630.42%-830-5.54%14,987
Marion12,15048.23%12,77150.69%2731.08%-621-2.46%25,194
Marshall8,51656.50%6,43542.70%1210.80%2,08113.80%15,072
Mason6,48754.10%5,40845.10%950.80%1,0799.00%11,990
McDowell2,76237.84%4,50161.67%360.49%-1,739-23.83%7,299
Mercer13,05758.34%9,17841.01%1440.64%3,87917.33%22,379
Mineral7,85468.53%3,51830.70%890.78%4,33637.83%11,461
Mingo4,61243.28%5,98356.15%600.56%-1,371-12.87%10,655
Monongalia17,67051.51%16,31347.55%3230.95%1,3573.96%34,306
Monroe3,59060.33%2,31138.83%500.84%1,27921.50%5,951
Morgan4,51165.88%2,27233.18%640.93%2,23932.70%6,847
Nicholas5,48552.99%4,78846.26%780.75%6976.73%10,351
Ohio11,69457.35%8,54341.89%1550.76%3,15115.46%20,392
Pendleton2,14660.55%1,38138.97%170.48%76521.58%3,544
Pleasants2,06160.00%1,34939.27%250.73%71220.73%3,435
Pocahontas2,29558.58%1,57340.15%501.27%72218.43%3,918
Preston7,85565.85%3,96333.22%1110.93%3,89232.63%11,929
Putnam15,71662.49%9,30136.98%1340.53%6,41525.51%25,151
Raleigh18,51960.67%11,81538.71%1910.62%6,70421.96%30,525
Randolph6,51256.68%4,89242.58%860.75%1,62014.10%11,490
Ritchie3,08673.55%1,07025.50%400.95%2,01648.05%4,196
Roane3,44056.39%2,61242.82%480.79%82813.57%6,100
Summers2,97853.91%2,50445.33%420.76%4748.58%5,524
Taylor3,89359.43%2,61739.95%410.62%1,27619.48%6,551
Tucker2,17960.53%1,40038.89%210.58%77921.64%3,600
Tyler2,79865.91%1,40133.00%461.09%1,39732.91%4,245
Upshur6,19166.62%3,03432.65%680.73%3,15733.97%9,293
Wayne10,07054.11%8,41145.20%1280.69%1,6598.91%18,609
Webster1,72446.42%1,96552.91%250.67%-241-6.49%3,714
Wetzel3,65651.95%3,33047.31%520.74%3264.64%7,038
Wirt1,72765.07%89633.76%311.17%83131.31%2,654
Wood24,94863.60%14,02535.75%2540.65%10,92327.85%39,227
Wyoming4,98557.18%3,69442.37%390.45%1,29114.81%8,718
Totals423,77856.06%326,54143.20%5,5680.74%97,23712.86%755,887

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Bush won all 3 congressional districts, including two held by Democrats.[7]

DistrictBushKerryRepresentative
58%42%Alan Mollohan
57%42%Shelley Moore Capito
53%46%Nick Rahall

Electors

See main article: List of 2004 United States presidential electors.

Technically the voters of WV cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. WV is allocated 5 electors because it has 3 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 5 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 5 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 5 were pledged for Bush/Cheney:

  1. Rob Capehart
  2. Doug McKinney
  3. Dan Moore
  4. Richie Robb
  5. Larry Faircloth

Notes and References

  1. Web site: Archived copy . dcpoliticalreport.com . 13 January 2022 . https://web.archive.org/web/20101121204958/http://dcpoliticalreport.com/members/2004/Pred2.htm . 21 November 2010 . dead.
  2. Web site: Election 2004 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections . https://archive.today/20120720061843/http://uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/polls.php?fips=54 . 20 July 2012 . dead.
  3. Web site: George W Bush - $374,659,453 raised, '04 election cycle, Republican Party, President . Campaignmoney.com . 2015-05-20.
  4. Web site: John F Kerry - $345,826,176 raised, '04 election cycle, Democratic Party, President . Campaignmoney.com . 2015-05-20.
  5. Web site: Specials . Cnn.com . 2015-05-20.
  6. Web site: Specials . Cnn.com . 2015-05-20.
  7. Web site: Presidential Results by Congressional District, 2000-2008 . Swing State Project . 2015-05-20.