2020 United States presidential election in Washington (state) explained

See main article: 2020 United States presidential election.

Election Name:2020 United States presidential election in Washington (state)
Country:Washington
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
College Voted:yes
Previous Election:2016 United States presidential election in Washington (state)
Previous Year:2016
Election Date:November 3, 2020
Next Election:2024 United States presidential election in Washington (state)
Next Year:2024
Turnout:84.11% (of registered voters) 5.35%[1]
Image1:Joe Biden presidential portrait (cropped).jpg
Nominee1:Joe Biden
Party1:Democratic Party (United States)
Home State1:Delaware
Running Mate1:Kamala Harris
Electoral Vote1:12
Popular Vote1:2,369,612
Percentage1:
Nominee2:Donald Trump
Party2:Republican Party (United States)
Home State2:Florida
Running Mate2:Mike Pence
Electoral Vote2:0
Popular Vote2:1,584,651
President
Before Election:Donald Trump
Before Party:Republican Party (United States)
After Election:Joe Biden
After Party:Democratic Party (United States)

The 2020 United States presidential election in Washington was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 U.S. states plus the District of Columbia participated.[2] Washington voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. Washington has 12 electoral votes in the Electoral College.[3]

Prior to the election, most news organizations forecast Washington as a state that Biden would win, or a safe blue state. Biden won the state by 19.2%, the largest margin for a presidential candidate of any party since 1964. He also flipped the swing county of Clallam, which now holds the record for the longest ongoing streak of voting for the national winner, having supported the winning candidate in every election since 1980. Biden also became the candidate with the highest vote total in the state's history, with 2,369,612 votes.[4] This was the first time since 1988 that Washington voted to the left of Illinois.

The Seattle metropolitan area, home to almost two-thirds of the state's population, is overwhelmingly Democratic. Despite this, even if the votes from King, Snohomish, and Pierce counties were removed, Biden would have carried the state by over 4,000 votes.[5] However, Trump won a considerable majority in outlying communities, garnering over 70% of the vote in rural counties such as Columbia. Eastern Washington is very rural and leans Republican, partly due to the strong tinge of social conservatism it shares with neighboring Idaho, a GOP stronghold. That said, Biden was able to improve on Clinton's margin in Whitman County—anchored by the college town of Pullman—increasing it from 4.1% in 2016 to 10.2% in 2020, the best performance for a Democrat in the county since 1936. In addition, he narrowed Trump's margin in Spokane County from 8.4% to 4.3%. Biden earned 75% of the vote in King County, home to Seattle. This was the largest margin by any candidate in a presidential race since the county's creation.[6]

Per exit polls by the Associated Press, Biden's strength in Washington came from 59% among white voters, 73% among Latinos and 79% among Asian-Americans. 34% of voters were irreligious and supported Biden by 78%.[7] Additionally, a majority of Native Americans in the state backed Biden by about 65%, with some tribes supporting Biden by over 80%.[8] Biden also became the first Democrat since Washington's admission into the union to win the presidency without winning Mason County, the first Democrat since John F. Kennedy in 1960 to prevail without winning Cowlitz County, and the first Democrat since Woodrow Wilson in 1916 to prevail without winning Grays Harbor County and Pacific County.

Primary elections

The primaries for the major parties were on March 10, 2020. On March 14, 2019, Governor Jay Inslee signed a bill moving the state's presidential primary up from May to the second Tuesday in March.[9]

Republican primary

Donald Trump, Bill Weld, Joe Walsh, and Rocky de la Fuente had declared their candidacy for the Republican Party, but only Trump met all of the state party's criteria by the official deadline of January 21, 2020, for being included on the ballot.[10] Thus Trump essentially ran unopposed in the Republican primary, and thus he received all of Washington's 43 delegates to the 2020 Republican National Convention.[11]

Democratic primary

A number of Democratic Party candidates ran or expressed interest in running.[12] [13] [14] Additionally, Seattle-based billionaire Howard Schultz announced a potential bid as an independent in early 2019, but backed out in September of that year.[15] The party's candidates included on the ballot at the deadline were Michael Bennet, Joe Biden, Michael Bloomberg, Cory Booker, Pete Buttigieg, John Delaney, Tulsi Gabbard, Amy Klobuchar, Deval Patrick, Bernie Sanders, Tom Steyer, Elizabeth Warren and Andrew Yang.[10]

Green primary

As a minor party, Washington State's Green Party affiliate is excluded from the publicly funded Presidential Primary in Washington State. The Green Party of Washington facilitated its primary by a mail-in ballot to its members after its Spring Convention on May 23[16] (deadline was June 13).

All candidates recognized by the Green Party of the United States by April 23 were on the ballot, plus a write-in option:

General election

Final predictions

SourceRanking
The Cook Political Report[17]
Inside Elections[18]
Sabato's Crystal Ball[19]
Politico[20]
RCP[21]
Niskanen[22]
CNN[23]
The Economist[24]
CBS News[25]
270towin[26]
ABC News[27]
NPR[28]
NBC News[29]
538[30]

Polling

Graphical summary

Aggregate polls

Joe
Biden
! class="unsortable"
Donald
Trump

Other/
Undecided
Margin
270 to Win[31] October 8–15, 2020October 27, 202057.5%35.5%7.0%Biden +22.0
FiveThirtyEight[32] until November 2, 2020November 3, 202059.4%36.4%4.2%Biden +23.0
Average58.5%36.0%5.6%Biden +22.5

Polls

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
Donald
Trump

Joe
Biden
Jo
Jorgensen

Howie
Hawkins

OtherUndecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios[33] Oct 20 – Nov 2, 20204,142 (LV)± 2%35%62%
Swayable[34] Oct 23 – Nov 1, 2020489 (LV)± 6%39%59%2%1%
SurveyMonkey/AxiosOct 1–28, 20207,424 (LV)36%62%
PPP/NPI[35] Oct 14–15, 2020610 (LV)± 4%37%60%2%
SurveyUSA/KING-TV[36] Oct 8–10, 2020591 (LV)± 5.2%34%55%5%5%
SurveyMonkey/AxiosSep 1–30, 20207,953 (LV)35%64%2%
Strategies 360[37] Sep 8–14, 2020501 (RV)± 4.4%36%58%7%
SurveyMonkey/AxiosAug 1–31, 20207,489 (LV)37%61%2%
SurveyMonkey/AxiosJul 1–31, 20207,691 (LV)37%62%2%
SurveyUSA/KING-TV[38] Jul 22–27, 2020534 (LV)± 5.2%28%62%6%
SurveyMonkey/AxiosJun 8–30, 20203,939 (LV)36%62%2%
Public Policy Polling/NPI[39] May 19–20, 20201,070 (LV)± 3%37%59%5%
SurveyUSA/KING-TV[40] May 16–19, 2020530 (LV)± 5.5%31%57%5%7%
EMC Research[41] Mar 31 – Apr 6, 2020583 (A)± 4.1%39%52%9%
SurveyUSA/KING-TV[42] Mar 4–6, 2020992 (RV)± 3.8%34%57%9%
Public Policy Polling/The Cascadia Advocate[43] Oct 22–23, 2019900 (LV)± 3.3%37%59%3%
Zogby Interactive/JZ Analytics[44] Jul 22 – Aug 1, 20191,265 (LV)± 2.8%31%52%17%
Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg

with Donald Trump and Kamala Harris

Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
Donald
Trump (R)
Bernie
Sanders (D)
Undecided
SurveyUSA/KING-TVMar 4–6, 2020992 (RV)± 3.8%35%56%9%
Public Policy Polling/The Cascadia AdvocateOct 22–23, 2019900 (LV)± 3.3%37%58%6%
Zogby Interactive/JZ AnalyticsJul 22 – Aug 1, 20191,265 (LV)± 2.8%32%54%14%

Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
Donald
Trump (R)
Elizabeth
Warren (D)
Undecided
SurveyUSA/KING-TVMar 4–6, 2020992 (RV)± 3.8%38%52%10%
Public Policy Polling/The Cascadia AdvocateOct 22–23, 2019900 (LV)± 3.3%37%60%3%
Zogby Interactive/JZ AnalyticsJul 22 – Aug 1, 20191,265 (LV)± 2.8%33%48%20%
with Donald Trump and generic Democrat

Electoral slates

These slates of electors were nominated by each party in order to vote in the Electoral College should their candidate win the state:[46]

Results

By winning nearly 58% of the vote, Joe Biden's performance was the best showing for a presidential candidate of any party in Washington since Lyndon B. Johnson's landslide victory in 1964.

By county

CountyJoe Biden
Democratic
Donald Trump
Republican
Various candidates
Other parties
MarginTotal
%%%%
Adams1,81430.95%3,90766.65%1412.40%-2,093-35.70%5,862
Asotin4,25035.56%7,31961.24%3823.20%-3,069-25.68%11,951
Benton38,70637.57%60,36558.59%3,9623.84%-21,659-21.02%103,033
Chelan19,34944.68%22,74652.52%1,2112.80%-3,397-7.84%43,306
Clallam24,72150.18%23,06246.81%1,4813.01%1,6593.37%49,264
Clark140,32450.95%126,30345.86%8,7763.19%14,0215.09%275,403
Columbia66826.77%1,75470.30%732.93%-1,086-43.53%2,495
Cowlitz23,93839.71%34,42457.11%1,9183.18%-10,486-17.40%60,280
Douglas7,81136.66%12,95560.80%5422.54%-5,144-24.14%21,308
Ferry1,48634.03%2,77163.45%1102.52%-1,285-29.42%4,367
Franklin13,34041.17%18,03955.67%1,0253.16%-4,699-14.50%32,404
Garfield36624.58%1,06971.79%543.63%-703-47.21%1,489
Grant11,81931.37%24,76465.72%1,0972.91%-12,945-34.35%37,680
Grays Harbor17,35445.14%19,87751.71%1,2103.15%-2,523-6.57%38,441
Island29,21354.17%22,74642.18%1,9663.65%6,46711.99%53,925
Jefferson17,20469.39%6,93127.96%6572.65%10,27341.43%24,792
King907,31074.95%269,16722.24%34,0302.81%638,14352.71%1,210,507
Kitsap90,27756.90%61,56338.80%6,8324.30%28,71418.10%158,672
Kittitas11,42143.32%14,10553.50%8383.18%-2,684-10.18%26,364
Klickitat5,95943.95%7,23753.37%3642.68%-1,278-9.42%13,560
Lewis14,52032.05%29,39164.87%1,3983.08%-14,871-32.82%45,309
Lincoln1,71324.36%5,15073.23%1702.41%-3,437-48.87%7,033
Mason17,26946.29%18,71050.16%1,3243.55%-1,441-3.87%37,303
Okanogan8,90041.82%11,84055.63%5422.55%-2,940-13.81%21,282
Pacific6,79448.31%6,95349.44%3172.25%-159-1.13%14,064
Pend Oreille2,59330.32%5,72866.97%2322.71%-3,135-36.65%8,553
Pierce249,50653.76%197,73042.61%16,8453.63%51,77611.15%464,081
San Juan9,72573.69%3,05723.16%4153.15%6,66850.53%13,197
Skagit38,25252.10%32,76244.62%2,4093.28%5,4907.48%73,423
Skamania3,19243.65%3,88553.13%2353.22%-693-9.48%7,312
Snohomish256,72858.51%166,42837.93%15,6403.56%90,30020.58%438,796
Spokane135,76545.96%148,57650.29%11,0893.75%-12,811-4.33%295,430
Stevens7,83927.57%19,80869.67%7832.76%-11,969-42.10%28,430
Thurston96,60857.46%65,27738.82%6,2493.72%31,33118.64%168,134
Wahkiakum1,16539.08%1,74158.40%752.52%-576-19.32%2,981
Walla Walla13,69043.79%16,40052.46%1,1713.75%-2,710-8.67%31,261
Whatcom83,66060.35%50,48936.42%4,4713.23%33,17123.93%138,620
Whitman11,18452.94%9,06742.92%8754.14%2,11710.02%21,126
Yakima43,17944.89%50,55552.56%2,4592.55%-7,376-7.67%96,193
Totals2,369,61257.97%1,584,65138.77%133,3683.26%784,96119.20%4,087,631

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Biden won 7 of 10 congressional districts.[47]

DistrictTrumpBidenRepresentative
38%59%Suzan DelBene
35%62%Rick Larsen
51%47%Jaime Herrera Beutler
58%39%Dan Newhouse
53%44%Cathy McMorris Rodgers
39%57%Derek Kilmer
12%86%Pramila Jayapal
45%51%Kim Schrier
24%73%Adam Smith
41%56%Denny Heck
Marilyn Strickland

See also

External links

Notes and References

  1. Web site: November 3, 2020 General Election - Voter Turnout.
  2. News: US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?. https://web.archive.org/web/20180802011326/https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-elections-key-dates-midterms-2020-presidential-house-congress-senate-a8472821.html . 2018-08-02 . limited . live. Kelly. Ben. August 13, 2018. The Independent. January 3, 2019.
  3. Web site: Distribution of Electoral Votes. National Archives and Records Administration. January 3, 2019.
  4. News: Farley . Josh . What does Clallam County know? Voters just chose a winner for the tenth straight election . November 14, 2020 . Kitsap Sun . November 7, 2020.
  5. News: Washington Election Results . The New York Times . November 3, 2020 .
  6. News: Washington Election Results. The New York Times. November 3, 2020.
  7. News: 2020-11-03. Washington Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted. en-US. The New York Times. 2020-11-15. 0362-4331.
  8. Web site: Brazile. Liz. Browning. Paige. 2020-11-16. This is why Native American voters in Washington state rallied behind Joe Biden. live. 2021-10-28. KUOW-FM. en. https://web.archive.org/web/20201117000156/https://kuow.org/stories/this-is-why-native-american-voters-in-washington-state-rallied-behind-biden . November 17, 2020 .
  9. News: Gov. Inslee signs bill moving presidential primary up to March. Associated Press. KING. March 14, 2019. June 23, 2019.
  10. News: Washington presidential primary ballot is set, even as Democratic field remains in flux. The Spokesman-Review. January 23, 2020.
  11. Web site: Washington Republican Delegation 2020. The Green Papers. March 20, 2020.
  12. News: Taylor . Kate . Elizabeth Warren Formally Announces 2020 Presidential Bid in Lawrence, Mass. . February 10, 2019 . The New York Times . February 9, 2019.
  13. News: Zhou . Li . Kamala Harris announces her historic 2020 presidential campaign . February 10, 2019 . Vox . January 21, 2019.
  14. News: Detrow . Scott . Cory Booker Makes It Official: He's Running For President In 2020 . February 10, 2019 . NPR . February 1, 2019.
  15. News: Howard Schultz makes Twitter debut amid 2020 speculation. January 27, 2019. January 27, 2019. Emily Birnbaum. The Hill.
  16. Web site: Green Party Presidential Primary. March 23, 2020.
  17. Web site: 2020 POTUS Race ratings. The Cook Political Report. en. 2019-05-21.
  18. Web site: POTUS Ratings Inside Elections. insideelections.com. 2019-05-21.
  19. Web site: Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President. crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. 2019-05-21.
  20. Web site: 2020 Election Forecast. November 19, 2019 . Politico.
  21. Web site: Battle for White House. April 19, 2019 . RCP.
  22. https://www.niskanencenter.org/bitecofer-post-primary-update/ 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions
  23. Web site: David Chalian . Terence Burlij. Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020. 2020-06-16. CNN. June 11, 2020 .
  24. News: Forecasting the US elections . The Economist . July 7, 2020.
  25. Web site: 2020 Election Battleground Tracker. CBS News. July 12, 2020. July 13, 2020.
  26. Web site: 2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map. 270 to Win.
  27. Web site: ABC News Race Ratings. CBS News. July 24, 2020. July 24, 2020.
  28. Web site: 2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes. 2020-08-03. NPR.org. en.
  29. Web site: Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten. 2020-08-06. NBC News. August 6, 2020 . en.
  30. Web site: 2020 Election Forecast . FiveThirtyEight . August 12, 2020 . August 14, 2020.
  31. https://www.270towin.com/2020-polls-biden-trump/washington/ 270 to Win
  32. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/washington/ FiveThirtyEight
  33. https://www.tableau.com/data-insights/us-election-2020/candidate-preference SurveyMonkey/Axios
  34. https://www.swayable.com/polls/2020-11-02-small.html Swayable
  35. https://www.nwprogressive.org/weblog/2020/10/three-out-of-five-washingtonians-surveyed-are-voting-for-joe-biden-npi-poll-finds.html PPP/NPI
  36. http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=544b4e4e-7820-4e83-b51a-41423dda3b8a SurveyUSA/KING-TV
  37. https://www.scribd.com/document/476985568/Strategies-360-KOMO-News-election-polling Strategies 360
  38. http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=e1e5b213-5bff-45d9-8c44-33b8a8a42e13 SurveyUSA/KING-TV
  39. https://www.nwprogressive.org/weblog/2020/05/npi-poll-finds-joe-biden-on-track-for-landslide-washington-state-win-in-november-2020.html Public Policy Polling/NPI
  40. http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=eb9c7a11-4c4c-469e-aad9-6fb9ce040a5b SurveyUSA/KING-TV
  41. https://www.postalley.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/20-7678-Report-WA-State-Residents-Full-Deck-with-Trump.pdf EMC Research
  42. http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=617c3b33-8fa1-472b-84b6-a8f35f8da814 SurveyUSA/KING-TV
  43. https://www.nwprogressive.org/weblog/2019/10/elizabeth-warren-is-donald-trumps-strongest-challenger-in-evergreen-state-npi-poll-finds.html Public Policy Polling/The Cascadia Advocate
  44. https://247wallst.com/special-report/2019/08/16/24-7-wall-st-zogby-analytics-battleground-state-poll-most-alaskan-voters-do-not-support-trump-but-agree-on-certain-issues/4/ Zogby Interactive/JZ Analytics
  45. https://www.nwprogressive.org/weblog/2019/05/washingtonians-unhappy-with-donald-trump-want-to-replace-him-with-a-democrat-in-2020.html Public Policy Polling
  46. Web site: 2020 Electoral College Electors. Washington Secretary of State. November 19, 2020.
  47. Results . sos.wa.gov . dead . https://web.archive.org/web/20201124181933/https://www.sos.wa.gov/elections/research/2020-general-election.aspx. 2020-11-24.