2004 United States presidential election in Virginia explained

See main article: 2004 United States presidential election.

Election Name:	2004 United States presidential election in Virginia
Country:	Virginia
Type:	presidential
Ongoing:	no
Previous Election:	2000 United States presidential election in Virginia
Previous Year:	2000
Next Election:	2008 United States presidential election in Virginia
Next Year:	2008
Turnout:	70.8% 3.6^[1]
Election Date:	November 2, 2004
Image1:	George-W-Bush.jpeg
Nominee1:	George W. Bush
Party1:	Republican Party (United States)
Home State1:	Texas
Running Mate1:	Dick Cheney
Electoral Vote1:	13
Popular Vote1:	1,716,959
Percentage1:	53.73%
Nominee2:	John Kerry
Party2:	Democratic Party (United States)
Home State2:	Massachusetts
Running Mate2:	John Edwards
Electoral Vote2:	0
Popular Vote2:	1,454,742
Percentage2:	45.53%
President
Before Election:	George W. Bush
Before Party:	Republican Party (United States)
After Election:	George W. Bush
After Party:	Republican Party (United States)

The 2004 United States presidential election in Virginia took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 13 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

Virginia was won by incumbent President George W. Bush by an 8.20% margin of victory. Prior to the election, all 12 news organizations considered this a state Bush would win, or otherwise a red state. The state had voted for the Republican candidate in all presidential elections since 1952 except for 1964's Democratic landslide. This pattern continued in 2004, although it would be broken four years later by the Democratic victory in 2008.

, the 2004 election is the last time that Virginia has voted for a Republican candidate in a presidential election. This is also the last time Virginia and West Virginia have voted for the same candidate.

This was also the last time Buchanan County and Dickenson County would vote Democratic for president; and the last time Loudoun County, Prince William County, and Henrico County, and the independent Cities of Winchester, Radford, Staunton, Harrisonburg, Manassas, Suffolk, Hopewell, and Manassas Park, would vote Republican for president. As of 2020, this is also the last time Virginia has voted to the right of Florida, which remained a traditional bellwether state as Virginia transitioned from safely red to safely blue; as well as the last time Virginia has voted to the right of Missouri or Ohio, two Midwestern bellwether states that were either in the process of becoming more safely red or would soon begin doing so. Bush became the first Republican to win the White House without carrying Fairfax County since Calvin Coolidge in 1924.

Primaries

• 2004 Virginia Democratic presidential primary

Campaign

Predictions

There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.^[2]

!Source!Ranking

D.C. Political Report
Associated Press
CNN
Cook Political Report
Newsweek
New York Times
Rasmussen Reports
Research 2000
Washington Post
Washington Times
Zogby International
Washington Dispatch

Polling

Bush won every single pre-election poll. The final 3 poll average showed Bush leading 50% to 45%.^[3]

Fundraising

Bush raised $8,594,386.^[4] Kerry raised $6,125,128.^[5]

Advertising and visits

Neither campaign advertised or visited this state during the fall election.^{[6] [7]}

Analysis

For about 80 years after the Civil War, Virginia was, like most other former Confederate states, reliably Democratic at the presidential level. After the passage of civil rights legislation in the mid-1960s and the ensuing "Southern strategy," Virginia turned strongly Republican at the presidential level, being the only former Confederate state to vote for Gerald Ford over Jimmy Carter in 1976. Much of the Republican strength in the state was based in the large and growing Richmond- and Washington, D.C.-area suburbs of Henrico, Chesterfield, and Fairfax Counties. This trend would start to change in the 2000s; although Bush was widely expected to carry Virginia and did prevail in the state by over 8 points, this election set the stage for the state to become more competitive on the presidential level in the future.

Though the state was uncontested by both campaigns,^[8] John Kerry became the first Democrat since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964 to carry Fairfax County, long a key Republican stronghold and the most populous county in the state. He was also the first Democrat since Harry S. Truman in 1948 to carry the independent city of Danville and Albermarle County.^[9] However, Bush managed to keep the margin in Virginia roughly unchanged with respect to 2000 by making further inroads in rural Virginia, particularly in Southwest Virginia, a heavily unionized region that had traditionally been one of the Democratic strongholds in the state. Bush became the first Republican to carry Russell County since 1972 and expanded his margin by over 10 points in Washington, Scott, Wise, Lee, and Smyth Counties. These countervailing trends would continue in subsequent elections, with Democrats expanding their support in Fairfax County while Republicans showed increasing support in Appalachian Virginia.

Results

2004 United States presidential election in Virginia^[10]
Party		Candidate	Running mate	Votes	Percentage	Electoral votes
	Republican	George W. Bush (inc.)	Dick Cheney (incumbent)	1,716,959	53.73%	13
	Democratic	John Kerry	John Edwards	1,454,742	45.53%	0
	Libertarian	Michael Badnarik	Richard Campagna	11,032	0.35%	0
	Constitution	Michael Peroutka	Chuck Baldwin	10,161	0.32%	0
	Independent (Write-in)	Ralph Nader (Write-in)	Peter Camejo	2,393	0.07%	0
	Green (Write-in)	David Cobb (Write-in)	Pat LaMarche	104	<0.01%	0
	Write-ins		-	24	<0.01%	0
Totals				3,195,415	100.00%	13
Voter turnout (Voting age population)					57.2%	—

By county or independent city

County/City	George W. Bush Republican		John Kerry Democratic		Various candidates Other parties		Margin		Total votes cast
	data-sort-type="number"		data-sort-type="number"	%	data-sort-type="number"		data-sort-type="number"	%		data-sort-type="number"		data-sort-type="number"	%	data-sort-type="number"		data-sort-type="number"	%
	Accomack		7,726		57.85%		5,518		41.31%		112		0.84%		2,208		16.54%		13,356
	Albemarle		21,189		48.46%		22,088		50.51%		449		1.03%		-899		-2.05%		43,726
	Alexandria		19,844		32.26%		41,116		66.84%		555		0.90%		-21,272		-34.58%		61,515
	Alleghany		3,962		55.07%		3,203		44.52%		30		0.42%		759		10.55%		7,195
	Amelia		3,499		64.83%		1,862		34.50%		36		0.67%		1,637		30.33%		5,397
	Amherst		7,758		61.11%		4,866		38.33%		71		0.56%		2,892		22.78%		12,695
	Appomattox		4,366		65.60%		2,191		32.92%		98		1.47%		2,175		32.68%		6,655
	Arlington		29,635		31.31%		63,987		67.60%		1,028		1.09%		-34,352		-36.29%		94,650
	Augusta		22,100		74.40%		7,019		23.63%		585		1.97%		15,081		50.77%		29,704
	Bath		1,432		62.75%		828		36.28%		22		0.96%		604		26.47%		2,282
	Bedford		21,925		69.82%		9,102		28.98%		377		1.20%		12,823		40.84%		31,404
	Bedford City		1,472		57.91%		1,042		40.99%		28		1.10%		430		16.92%		2,542
	Bland		1,962		68.48%		846		29.53%		57		1.99%		1,116		38.95%		2,865
	Botetourt		10,865		68.78%		4,801		30.39%		131		0.83%		6,064		38.39%		15,797
	Bristol		4,275		63.58%		2,400		35.69%		49		0.73%		1,875		27.89%		6,724
	Brunswick		2,852		41.18%		4,062		58.65%		12		0.17%		-1,210		-17.47%		6,926
	Buchanan		4,507		45.85%		5,275		53.67%		47		0.48%		-768		-7.82%		9,829
	Buckingham		3,185		52.85%		2,789		46.28%		53		0.88%		396		6.57%		6,027
	Buena Vista		1,417		59.31%		936		39.18%		36		1.51%		481		20.13%		2,389
	Campbell		15,891		69.10%		6,862		29.84%		244		1.06%		9,029		39.26%		22,997
	Caroline		4,999		50.22%		4,878		49.01%		77		0.77%		121		1.21%		9,954
	Carroll		8,173		67.39%		3,888		32.06%		67		0.55%		4,285		35.33%		12,128
	Charles City		1,254		36.46%		2,155		62.66%		30		0.87%		-901		-26.20%		3,439
	Charlotte		3,166		58.22%		2,223		40.88%		49		0.90%		943		17.34%		5,438
	Charlottesville		4,172		27.00%		11,088		71.77%		190		1.23%		-6,916		-44.77%		15,450
	Chesapeake		52,283		57.11%		38,744		42.32%		514		0.56%		13,539		14.79%		91,541
	Chesterfield		83,745		62.58%		49,346		36.88%		723		0.54%		34,399		25.70%		133,814
	Clarke		3,741		57.51%		2,699		41.49%		65		1.00%		1,042		16.02%		6,505
	Colonial Heights		6,129		74.46%		2,061		25.04%		41		0.50%		4,068		49.42%		8,231
	Covington		1,104		47.98%		1,179		51.24%		18		0.78%		-75		-3.26%		2,301
	Craig		1,706		65.09%		901		34.38%		14		0.53%		805		30.71%		2,621
	Culpeper		10,026		64.25%		5,476		35.09%		103		0.66%		4,550		29.16%		15,605
	Cumberland		2,377		57.61%		1,721		41.71%		28		0.68%		656		15.90%		4,126
	Danville		9,399		49.18%		9,436		49.37%		277		1.45%		-37		-0.19%		19,112
	Dickenson		3,591		48.49%		3,761		50.78%		54		0.73%		-170		-2.29%		7,406
	Dinwiddie		6,193		57.14%		4,569		42.15%		77		0.71%		1,624		14.99%		10,839
	Emporia		970		43.67%		1,247		56.15%		4		0.18%		-277		-12.48%		2,221
	Essex		2,304		53.04%		2,007		46.20%		33		0.76%		297		6.84%		4,344
	Fairfax		211,980		45.94%		245,671		53.25%		3,728		0.81%		-33,691		-7.31%		461,379
	Fairfax City		5,045		47.84%		5,395		51.16%		106		1.01%		-350		-3.32%		10,546
	Falls Church		2,074		34.01%		3,944		64.68%		80		1.31%		-1,870		-30.67%		6,098
	Fauquier		19,011		63.55%		10,712		35.81%		192		0.64%		8,299		27.74%		29,915
	Floyd		4,162		61.81%		2,488		36.95%		84		1.25%		1,674		24.86%		6,734
	Fluvanna		6,458		58.94%		4,415		40.29%		84		0.77%		2,043		18.65%		10,957
	Franklin		14,048		63.21%		8,002		36.01%		173		0.78%		6,046		27.20%		22,223
	Franklin City		1,613		45.62%		1,910		54.02%		13		0.37%		-297		-8.40%		3,536
	Frederick		19,386		67.93%		8,853		31.02%		301		1.05%		10,533		36.91%		28,540
	Fredericksburg		3,390		44.95%		4,085		54.16%		67		0.89%		-695		-9.21%		7,542
	Galax		1,336		57.22%		987		42.27%		12		0.51%		349		14.95%		2,335
	Giles		4,320		57.62%		3,047		40.64%		131		1.75%		1,273		16.98%		7,498
	Gloucester		11,084		67.86%		5,105		31.26%		144		0.88%		5,979		36.60%		16,333
	Goochland		6,668		64.50%		3,583		34.66%		87		0.84%		3,085		29.84%		10,338
	Grayson		4,655		65.22%		2,430		34.05%		52		0.73%		2,225		31.17%		7,137
	Greene		4,570		65.86%		2,240		32.28%		129		1.86%		2,330		33.58%		6,939
	Greensville		1,732		40.68%		2,514		59.04%		12		0.28%		-782		-18.36%		4,258
	Halifax		8,363		57.06%		6,220		42.44%		73		0.50%		2,143		14.62%		14,656
	Hampton		23,399		41.98%		32,016		57.44%		326		0.58%		-8,617		-15.46%		55,741
	Hanover		35,404		71.36%		13,941		28.10%		266		0.54%		21,463		43.26%		49,611
	Harrisonburg		6,165		55.89%		4,726		42.85%		139		1.26%		1,439		13.04%		11,030
	Henrico		71,809		53.82%		60,864		45.62%		745		0.56%		10,945		8.20%		133,418
	Henry		13,358		56.94%		9,851		41.99%		249		1.06%		3,507		14.95%		23,458
	Highland		982		64.61%		522		34.34%		16		1.05%		460		30.27%		1,520
	Hopewell		4,251		53.57%		3,573		45.02%		112		1.41%		678		8.55%		7,936
	Isle of Wight		9,929		62.56%		5,871		36.99%		71		0.45%		4,058		25.57%		15,871
	James City		18,949		60.95%		11,934		38.39%		207		0.67%		7,015		22.56%		31,090
	King and Queen		1,737		52.86%		1,506		45.83%		43		1.31%		231		7.03%		3,286
	King George		5,124		64.69%		2,739		34.58%		58		0.73%		2,385		30.11%		7,921
	King William		4,397		63.98%		2,436		35.45%		39		0.57%		1,961		28.53%		6,872
	Lancaster		3,724		59.78%		2,477		39.76%		29		0.47%		1,247		20.02%		6,230
	Lee		5,664		57.97%		4,005		40.99%		101		1.03%		1,659		16.98%		9,770
	Lexington		982		41.81%		1,340		57.05%		27		1.15%		-358		-15.24%		2,349
	Loudoun		60,382		55.69%		47,271		43.60%		777		0.72%		13,111		12.09%		108,430
	Louisa		7,083		58.85%		4,844		40.25%		108		0.90%		2,239		18.60%		12,035
	Lunenburg		2,858		54.49%		2,362		45.03%		25		0.48%		496		9.46%		5,245
	Lynchburg		14,400		54.67%		11,727		44.52%		213		0.81%		2,673		10.15%		26,340
	Madison		3,556		61.61%		2,176		37.70%		40		0.69%		1,380		23.91%		5,772
	Manassas		7,257		56.24%		5,562		43.11%		84		0.65%		1,695		13.13%		12,903
	Manassas Park		1,807		54.23%		1,498		44.96%		27		0.81%		309		9.27%		3,332
	Martinsville		2,538		45.30%		3,036		54.19%		29		0.52%		-498		-8.89%		5,603
	Mathews		3,497		68.18%		1,589		30.98%		43		0.84%		1,908		37.20%		5,129
	Mecklenburg		7,319		57.27%		5,293		41.42%		168		1.31%		2,026		15.85%		12,780
	Middlesex		3,336		62.04%		1,914		35.60%		127		2.36%		1,422		26.44%		5,377
	Montgomery		17,070		54.16%		14,128		44.83%		317		1.01%		2,942		9.33%		31,515
	Nelson		3,539		49.57%		3,543		49.63%		57		0.80%		-4		-0.06%		7,139
	New Kent		5,414		68.13%		2,443		30.75%		89		1.12%		2,971		37.38%		7,946
	Newport News		32,208		47.40%		35,319		51.98%		425		0.63%		-3,111		-4.58%		67,952
	Norfolk		26,401		37.41%		43,518		61.67%		651		0.92%		-17,117		-24.26%		70,570
	Northampton		2,669		48.54%		2,775		50.46%		55		1.00%		-106		-1.92%		5,499
	Northumberland		3,832		59.79%		2,548		39.76%		29		0.45%		1,284		20.03%		6,409
	Norton		768		51.06%		725		48.20%		11		0.73%		43		2.86%		1,504
	Nottoway		3,303		54.78%		2,635		43.70%		92		1.53%		668		11.08%		6,030
	Orange		7,749		59.94%		5,015		38.79%		164		1.27%		2,734		21.15%		12,928
	Page		6,221		64.78%		3,324		34.61%		58		0.60%		2,897		30.17%		9,603
	Patrick		5,507		67.04%		2,572		31.31%		136		1.66%		2,935		35.73%		8,215
	Petersburg		2,238		18.73%		9,682		81.03%		29		0.24%		-7,444		-62.30%		11,949
	Pittsylvania		17,673		64.46%		9,274		33.83%		470		1.71%		8,399		30.63%		27,417
	Poquoson		5,004		77.22%		1,424		21.98%		52		0.80%		3,580		55.24%		6,480
	Portsmouth		15,212		38.48%		24,112		60.99%		210		0.53%		-8,900		-22.51%		39,534
	Powhatan		8,955		73.62%		3,112		25.59%		96		0.79%		5,843		48.03%		12,163
	Prince Edward		3,571		48.81%		3,632		49.64%		113		1.54%		-61		-0.83%		7,316
	Prince George		8,131		61.35%		5,066		38.22%		57		0.43%		3,065		23.13%		13,254
	Prince William		69,776		52.84%		61,271		46.40%		1,016		0.77%		8,505		6.44%		132,063
	Pulaski		8,769		61.53%		5,310		37.26%		172		1.21%		3,459		24.27%		14,251
	Radford		2,564		52.92%		2,244		46.32%		37		0.76%		320		6.60%		4,845
	Rappahannock		2,172		53.63%		1,837		45.36%		41		1.01%		335		8.27%		4,050
	Richmond		2,082		61.95%		1,243		36.98%		36		1.07%		839		24.97%		3,361
	Richmond City		21,637		29.11%		52,167		70.19%		521		0.70%		-30,530		-41.08%		74,325
	Roanoke		30,596		65.14%		16,082		34.24%		295		0.63%		14,514		30.90%		46,973
	Roanoke City		16,661		46.28%		18,862		52.39%		477		1.33%		-2,201		-6.11%		36,000
	Rockbridge		5,412		58.95%		3,627		39.51%		142		1.55%		1,785		19.44%		9,181
	Rockingham		21,737		74.40%		7,273		24.89%		206		0.71%		14,464		49.51%		29,216
	Russell		6,077		53.20%		5,167		45.23%		179		1.57%		910		7.97%		11,423
	Salem		7,115		61.96%		4,254		37.04%		115		1.00%		2,861		24.92%		11,484
	Scott		6,479		65.00%		3,324		33.35%		164		1.65%		3,155		31.65%		9,967
	Shenandoah		11,820		68.94%		5,186		30.25%		140		0.82%		6,634		38.69%		17,146
	Smyth		7,906		64.18%		4,143		33.63%		270		2.19%		3,763		30.55%		12,319
	Southampton		4,018		53.63%		3,431		45.80%		43		0.57%		587		7.83%		7,492
	Spotsylvania		28,527		62.77%		16,623		36.58%		295		0.65%		11,904		26.19%		45,445
	Stafford		28,500		61.98%		17,208		37.42%		278		0.60%		11,292		24.56%		45,986
	Staunton		5,805		60.29%		3,756		39.01%		68		0.71%		2,049		21.28%		9,629
	Suffolk		16,763		52.08%		15,233		47.32%		193		0.60%		1,530		4.76%		32,189
	Surry		1,543		43.81%		1,954		55.48%		25		0.71%		-411		-11.67%		3,522
	Sussex		1,890		43.50%		2,420		55.70%		35		0.81%		-530		-12.20%		4,345
	Tazewell		10,039		57.43%		7,184		41.10%		257		1.47%		2,855		16.33%		17,480
	Virginia Beach		103,752		59.06%		70,666		40.22%		1,269		0.72%		33,086		18.84%		175,687
	Warren		8,600		61.13%		5,241		37.25%		227		1.61%		3,359		23.88%		14,068
	Washington		14,749		65.51%		7,339		32.60%		426		1.89%		7,410		32.91%		22,514
	Waynesboro		5,092		63.95%		2,792		35.06%		79		0.99%		2,300		28.89%		7,963
	Westmoreland		3,433		50.13%		3,370		49.21%		45		0.66%		63		0.92%		6,848
	Williamsburg		2,064		47.78%		2,216		51.30%		40		0.93%		-152		-3.52%		4,320
	Winchester		5,283		56.55%		3,967		42.46%		93		1.00%		1,316		14.09%		9,343
	Wise		8,330		58.20%		5,802		40.54%		180		1.26%		2,528		17.66%		14,312
	Wythe		7,911		68.47%		3,581		30.99%		62		0.54%		4,330		37.48%		11,554
	York		19,396		64.91%		10,276		34.39%		208		0.70%		9,120		30.52%		29,880
Totals	1,716,959	53.68%	1,454,742	45.48%	26,666	0.83%	262,217	8.20%	3,198,367

Counties and independent cities that flipped from Democratic to Republican

• Caroline (largest municipality: Bowling Green)
• Russell (largest municipality: Lebanon)
• Southampton (largest municipality: Courtland)
• Norton (independent city)
• Suffolk (independent city)

Counties and independent cities that flipped from Republican to Democratic

• Albemarle (largest municipality: Scottsville)
• Fairfax (largest municipality: Herndon)
• Nelson (largest municipality: Nellysford)
• Prince Edward (largest municipality: Farmville)
• Danville (independent city)
• Fairfax (independent city)
• Williamsburg (independent city)

By congressional district

Bush won nine of eleven congressional districts, including one that elected a Democrat.^[11]

District	Bush	Kerry	Representative
		60%	39%		Jo Ann Davis
		58%	42%		Thelma Drake
		33%	66%		Robert C. Scott
		57%	43%		Randy Forbes
		56%	43%
		63%	36%		Bob Goodlatte
		61%	38%		Eric Cantor
		35%	64%		Jim Moran
		60%	39%		Rick Boucher
		55%	44%		Frank Wolf
		50%	49%		Thomas M. Davis

Electors

See main article: List of 2004 United States presidential electors.

Technically the voters of Virginia cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Virginia is allocated 13 electors because it has 11 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 13 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 13 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 13 were pledged for Bush/Cheney:

1. Yvonne McGee McCoy
2. Loretta H. Tate
3. Theodore C. Brown
4. Woodrow Harris
5. Keith C. Drake
6. Wendell S. Walker
7. Peter E. Broadbent
8. Sean Michael Spicer
9. Lloyd C. Martin
10. Dorothy L. Simpson
11. Carlton John Davis
12. Charles E. Dane
13. Rebecca Anne Stoeckel

Notes and References

1. Web site: Registration/Turnout Statistics. Virginia Department of Elections. 2018-09-18. 2018-10-18. https://web.archive.org/web/20181018023154/https://www.elections.virginia.gov/resultsreports/registration-statistics/registrationturnout-statistics/index.html. dead.
2. Web site: D.C.'s Political Report's 2004 Presidential Ratings . 29 October 2004 . www.dcpoliticalreport.com . 26 January 2022 . https://archive.today/20120729225933/http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/members/2004/Pred2.htm%23NW . 29 July 2012 . dead.
3. Web site: 2004 Presidential Election Polls . Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Election.
4. Web site: George W Bush — $374,659,453 raised, '04 election cycle, Republican Party, President. campaignmoney.com. 26 July 2017.
5. Web site: John F Kerry — $345,826,176 raised, '04 election cycle, Democratic Party, President. campaignmoney.com. 26 July 2017.
6. News: CNN.com Specials. CNN .
7. News: CNN.com Specials. CNN .
8. Web site: Sabato. Larry J.. Kerry Can Win Virginia…But Will He? – Sabato's Crystal Ball. 2021-11-08. en-US.
9. Book: Menendez, Albert J.. The Geography of Presidential Elections in the United States, 1868-2004. 2005. 131, 328–331. 0786422173.
10. Web site: Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives . Clerk of the United States House of Representatives . Statistics of the Presidential and Congressional Election of November 2, 2004 .
11. Web site: Presidential Results by Congressional District, 2000-2008 . Swing State Project. 26 July 2017.