1948 United States presidential election in Virginia explained

See main article: 1948 United States presidential election.

Election Name:1948 United States presidential election in Virginia
Country:Virginia
Flag Year:1931
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:1944 United States presidential election in Virginia
Previous Year:1944
Next Election:1952 United States presidential election in Virginia
Next Year:1952
Election Date:November 2, 1948
Image1:Harry S Truman, bw half-length photo portrait, facing front, 1945 (cropped).jpg
Nominee1:Harry S. Truman
Party1:Democratic Party (United States)
Home State1:Missouri
Running Mate1:Alben W. Barkley
Electoral Vote1:11
Popular Vote1:200,786
Percentage1:47.89%
Nominee2:Thomas E. Dewey
Party2:Republican Party (United States)
Home State2:New York
Running Mate2:Earl Warren
Electoral Vote2:0
Popular Vote2:172,070
Percentage2:41.04%
Image3:Strom Thurmond 1948 (cropped).jpg
Nominee3:Strom Thurmond
Party3:States’ Rights
Home State3:South Carolina
Running Mate3:Fielding L. Wright
Electoral Vote3:0
Popular Vote3:43,393
Percentage3:10.35%
Map Size:436px
President
Before Election:Harry S. Truman
Before Party:Democratic Party (United States)
After Election:Harry S. Truman
After Party:Democratic Party (United States)

The 1948 United States presidential election in Virginia took place on November 2, 1948, throughout the 48 contiguous states. Voters chose 11 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

For the previous four decades Virginia had almost completely disenfranchised its black and poor white populations through the use of a cumulative poll tax and literacy tests.[1] So restricted was suffrage in this period that it has been calculated that a third of Virginia's electorate during the first half of the twentieth century comprised state employees and officeholders.[1]

This limited electorate allowed Virginian politics to be controlled for four decades by the Byrd Organization, as progressive “antiorganization” factions were rendered impotent by the inability of almost all their potential electorate to vote.[2] Historical fusion with the “Readjuster” Democrats,[3] defection of substantial proportions of the Northeast-aligned white electorate of the Shenandoah Valley and Southwest Virginia over free silver,[4] and an early move towards a “lily white” Jim Crow party[3] meant Republicans retained a small but permanent number of legislative seats and local offices in the western part of the state.[5] In 1928 a combination of growing middle-class Republicanism in the cities and anti-Catholicism against Al Smith in the Tidewater[6] allowed the GOP to carry Virginia and elect three Congressmen, including one representing the local district of emerging machine leader Byrd.[7] However, from 1932 with the state severely affected by the Depression, Republican strength declined below its low pre-1928 level, although Byrd himself became highly critical of Franklin D. Roosevelt’s New Deal policies as early as 1940.[8]

Virginia’s delegates at the 1948 Democratic National Convention were all opposed to incumbent President Harry S. Truman after his proposal for black civil rights titled To Secure These Rights. Nevertheless, the presence of viable Republican opposition in the southwest and Shenandoah Valley meant that Byrd refused to endorse either South Carolina Governor Strom Thurmond, who received the nomination of the States’ Rights Democratic Party, or Republican nominee New York Governor Thomas E. Dewey,[9] largely because of fear of losing several seats in the House to resurgent Republicans.[9]

Campaign

Despite the failure of local federal officeholders to endorse him, Thurmond campaigned extensively in Virginia during October, arguing that Truman, Dewey and Progressive candidate Henry A. Wallace all had platforms that would destroy the existing “American way of life”.[10] The Item argued that Byrd did support Thurmond and that his tour was helping the South Carolina Governor,[11] although other polls did not imply this. Neither Dewey nor Truman campaigned in Virginia, and despite the fact that all federal representatives supported the incumbent president, local party officials of the Byrd Organization did little to work for Truman and running mate Alben W. Barkley.[12]

Despite all polls expecting Dewey to carry the state, Truman would win quite comfortably, although the Democratic margin fell by more than seventeen points vis-à-vis the 1944 election.

11% of white voters supported Thurmond.

Polls

SourceRankingAs of
Chattanooga Daily Times[13] October 15, 1948
The Montgomery Advertiser[14] October 24, 1948
The Miami News[15] October 25, 1948
Mount Vernon Argus[16] November 1, 1948
Oakland Tribune[17] November 1, 1948

Results

1948 United States presidential election in Virginia[18]
PartyCandidateVotesPercentageElectoral votes
DemocraticHarry S. Truman (inc.)200,78647.89%11
RepublicanThomas E. Dewey172,07041.04%0
States’ RightsStrom Thurmond43,39310.35%0
ProgressiveHenry A. Wallace2,0470.49%0
SocialistNorman Thomas7260.17%0
Socialist LaborEdward Teichert2340.06%0
Totals419,256100.00%11

Results by county or independent city

1948 United States presidential election in Virginia by counties and independent cities[19] [20] [21]
Harry S. Truman
Democratic
Thomas Edmund Dewey
Republican
James Strom Thurmond
States’ Rights
Henry Agard Wallace
Progressive
Various candidates
Other parties
MarginTotal votes cast
%data-sort-type="number"data-sort-type="number"%data-sort-type="number"data-sort-type="number"%data-sort-type="number"data-sort-type="number"%%data-sort-type="number"data-sort-type="number"%
Accomack County1,66953.77%1,08835.05%33910.92%50.16%30.10%58118.72%3,104
Albemarle County1,17848.22%98440.28%27111.09%40.16%60.25%1947.94%2,443
Alleghany County2,25358.52%1,42537.01%1473.82%140.36%110.29%82821.51%3,850
Amelia County44341.87%37235.16%23722.40%40.38%20.19%716.71%1,058
Amherst County1,48160.06%46018.65%50720.56%40.16%140.57%97439.50%2,466
Appomattox County1,18270.95%23814.29%24114.47%30.18%20.12%94156.48%1,666
Arlington County7,79838.77%10,77453.57%1,1215.57%2671.33%1510.75%-2,976-14.80%20,111
Augusta County1,35539.23%1,69048.93%40111.61%20.06%60.17%-335-9.70%3,454
Bath County37539.98%48852.03%707.46%50.53%00.00%-113-12.05%938
Bedford County1,55643.11%1,08430.04%96326.68%20.06%40.11%47213.08%3,609
Bland County73845.33%82250.49%664.05%10.06%10.06%-84-5.16%1,628
Botetourt County1,02639.00%1,36351.81%2308.74%100.38%20.08%-337-12.81%2,631
Brunswick County1,06748.46%22910.40%89540.64%30.14%80.36%1727.81%2,202
Buchanan County3,17459.61%2,08539.15%510.96%70.13%80.15%1,08920.45%5,325
Buckingham County72857.46%35427.94%18514.60%00.00%00.00%37429.52%1,267
Campbell County1,55454.03%66823.23%64422.39%30.10%70.24%88630.81%2,876
Caroline County73155.72%39730.26%18213.87%20.15%00.00%33425.46%1,312
Carroll County1,19632.00%2,45665.72%762.03%50.13%40.11%-1,260-33.72%3,737
Charles City County25851.91%16733.60%6913.88%20.40%10.20%9118.31%497
Charlotte County96457.83%28517.10%41725.01%00.00%10.06%54732.81%1,667
Chesterfield County2,60054.97%1,42830.19%67114.19%180.38%130.27%1,17224.78%4,730
Clarke County48241.62%38433.16%28424.53%30.26%50.43%988.46%1,158
Craig County45657.29%31739.82%232.89%00.00%00.00%13917.46%796
Culpeper County80447.32%68240.14%21112.42%20.12%00.00%1227.18%1,699
Cumberland County42452.15%21926.94%16920.79%00.00%10.12%20525.22%813
Dickenson County2,94556.94%2,19742.48%160.31%120.23%20.04%74814.46%5,172
Dinwiddie County96164.07%26117.40%26817.87%70.47%30.20%69346.20%1,500
Elizabeth City County2,74457.31%1,61733.77%3647.60%470.98%160.33%1,12723.54%4,788
Essex County32950.54%22133.95%9915.21%10.15%10.15%10816.59%651
Fairfax County3,71939.19%4,93051.95%7057.43%790.83%560.59%-1,211-12.76%9,489
Fauquier County1,29148.41%1,10241.32%2659.94%30.11%60.22%1897.09%2,667
Floyd County43424.87%1,26672.55%422.41%10.06%20.11%-832-47.68%1,745
Fluvanna County44752.46%31937.44%839.74%20.23%10.12%12815.02%852
Franklin County1,34347.74%1,10039.10%34812.37%130.46%90.32%2438.64%2,813
Frederick County1,24451.75%92138.31%2399.94%00.00%00.00%32313.44%2,404
Giles County1,52949.09%1,44846.48%1314.21%40.13%30.10%812.60%3,115
Gloucester County71956.44%43434.07%1179.18%30.24%10.08%28522.37%1,274
Goochland County68359.91%29225.61%15413.51%80.70%30.26%39134.30%1,140
Grayson County2,74141.73%3,66955.86%1522.31%30.05%30.05%-928-14.13%6,568
Greene County26136.55%42058.82%283.92%30.42%20.28%-159-22.27%714
Greensville County71049.75%30121.09%40428.31%40.28%80.56%30621.44%1,427
Halifax County1,32334.19%52113.46%2,00751.86%70.18%120.31%-684-17.67%3,870
Hanover County1,04847.59%83838.06%29413.35%140.64%80.36%2109.54%2,202
Henrico County2,32146.70%2,09242.09%50810.22%360.72%130.26%2294.61%4,970
Henry County1,31851.95%73028.77%47418.68%70.28%80.32%58823.18%2,537
Highland County42338.81%57953.12%857.80%10.09%20.18%-156-14.31%1,090
Isle of Wight County1,06466.88%44227.78%815.09%20.13%20.13%62239.09%1,591
James City County19844.49%17739.78%6815.28%10.22%10.22%214.72%445
King and Queen County29353.56%17131.26%8214.99%00.00%10.18%12222.30%547
King George County24834.44%31643.89%15221.11%20.28%20.28%-68-9.44%720
King William County47649.02%34835.84%13814.21%50.51%40.41%12813.18%971
Lancaster County56047.70%45939.10%14912.69%40.34%20.17%1018.60%1,174
Lee County4,06948.06%4,29750.76%861.02%70.08%70.08%-228-2.69%8,466
Loudoun County1,54547.61%1,43044.07%2467.58%100.31%140.43%1153.54%3,245
Louisa County78246.24%70141.45%20111.89%60.35%10.06%814.79%1,691
Lunenburg County1,12665.54%25114.61%33519.50%30.17%30.17%79146.04%1,718
Madison County42836.03%66255.72%897.49%20.17%70.59%-234-19.70%1,188
Mathews County45844.42%49047.53%817.86%20.19%00.00%-32-3.10%1,031
Mecklenburg County2,11769.34%51316.80%42213.82%10.03%00.00%1,60452.54%3,053
Middlesex County45751.99%27130.83%14816.84%10.11%20.23%18621.16%879
Montgomery County1,12632.42%2,07059.60%2547.31%50.14%180.52%-944-27.18%3,473
Nansemond County2,11576.27%41314.89%1796.46%662.38%00.00%1,70261.38%2,773
Nelson County1,20469.16%37121.31%1649.42%10.06%10.06%83347.85%1,741
New Kent County27753.89%14027.24%9217.90%10.19%40.78%13726.65%514
Norfolk County4,69666.24%1,83025.81%5367.56%210.30%60.08%2,86640.43%7,089
Northampton County99756.71%52529.86%22913.03%50.28%20.11%47226.85%1,758
Northumberland County42937.43%53546.68%17815.53%20.17%20.17%-106-9.25%1,146
Nottoway County1,00451.15%48624.76%46723.79%20.10%40.20%51826.39%1,963
Orange County85646.22%72639.20%26414.25%30.16%30.16%1307.02%1,852
Page County1,61139.73%2,23655.14%1724.24%330.81%30.07%-625-15.41%4,055
Patrick County76041.30%64835.22%43023.37%10.05%10.05%1126.09%1,840
Pittsylvania County3,14955.58%1,16420.54%1,32123.31%110.19%210.37%1,82832.26%5,666
Powhatan County33850.98%23835.90%8312.52%20.30%20.30%10015.08%663
Prince Edward County74043.07%45926.72%51029.69%20.12%70.41%23013.39%1,718
Prince George County74561.57%31726.20%13811.40%70.58%30.25%42835.37%1,210
Princess Anne County2,00854.05%1,32935.77%3619.72%120.32%50.13%67918.28%3,715
Prince William County1,16255.78%76036.49%1517.25%60.29%40.19%40219.30%2,083
Pulaski County1,41240.90%1,69148.99%3449.97%30.09%20.06%-279-8.08%3,452
Rappahannock County61759.67%31130.08%1009.67%30.29%30.29%30629.59%1,034
Richmond County24039.02%29648.13%7011.38%30.49%60.98%-56-9.11%615
Roanoke County2,87638.58%3,98853.49%5687.62%180.24%50.07%-1,112-14.92%7,455
Rockbridge County99443.52%1,06246.50%2179.50%50.22%60.26%-68-2.98%2,284
Rockingham County1,68032.42%3,21962.12%2605.02%80.15%150.29%-1,539-29.70%5,182
Russell County2,68951.29%2,44746.67%1031.96%20.04%20.04%2424.62%5,243
Scott County2,67642.67%3,52056.12%631.00%60.10%70.11%-844-13.46%6,272
Shenandoah County1,60330.95%3,34964.65%2144.13%80.15%60.12%-1,746-33.71%5,180
Smyth County1,75036.29%2,89760.08%1613.34%40.08%100.21%-1,147-23.79%4,822
Southampton County1,46269.62%33916.14%29113.86%50.24%30.14%1,12353.48%2,100
Spotsylvania County81854.17%51734.24%17011.26%40.26%10.07%30119.93%1,510
Stafford County70844.84%73246.36%1298.17%60.38%40.25%-24-1.52%1,579
Surry County46059.43%13417.31%18023.26%00.00%00.00%28036.18%774
Sussex County61450.33%24420.00%35529.10%30.25%40.33%25921.23%1,220
Tazewell County2,25847.98%2,27848.41%1633.46%60.13%10.02%-20-0.42%4,706
Warren County1,29151.99%1,01640.92%1666.69%60.24%40.16%27511.08%2,483
Washington County2,51044.09%2,97252.20%1873.28%110.19%130.23%-462-8.12%5,693
Westmoreland County50339.42%56844.51%19715.44%70.55%10.08%-65-5.09%1,276
Wise County4,86261.98%2,83636.15%1331.70%80.10%60.08%2,02625.83%7,845
Wythe County97629.26%2,07762.26%2798.36%30.09%10.03%-1,101-33.00%3,336
York County82660.03%41830.38%1198.65%60.44%70.51%40829.65%1,376
Alexandria City3,91744.99%3,90344.83%7778.92%670.77%430.49%140.16%8,707
Bristol City1,45158.94%87935.70%1255.08%70.28%00.00%57223.23%2,462
Buena Vista City29752.75%23441.56%315.51%10.18%00.00%6311.19%563
Charlottesville City1,52745.35%1,41942.14%38711.49%150.45%190.56%1083.21%3,367
Clifton Forge City81858.22%45132.10%1319.32%40.28%10.07%36726.12%1,405
Danville City2,33442.84%1,57928.98%1,51127.73%110.20%130.24%75513.86%5,448
Fredericksburg City81642.26%81041.95%29015.02%90.47%60.31%60.31%1,931
Hampton City72758.87%37130.04%1239.96%131.05%10.08%35628.83%1,235
Harrisonburg City75131.93%1,37758.55%2088.84%80.34%80.34%-626-26.62%2,352
Hopewell City1,24262.70%57028.77%1507.57%160.81%30.15%67233.92%1,981
Lynchburg City2,48036.76%2,37335.17%1,84127.29%230.34%300.44%1071.59%6,747
Martinsville City81439.50%64231.15%59829.02%60.29%10.05%1728.35%2,061
Newport News City3,42065.28%1,45327.73%2845.42%711.36%110.21%1,96737.55%5,239
Norfolk City9,37050.76%7,55640.93%1,2556.80%2591.40%200.11%1,8149.83%18,460
Petersburg City2,01952.70%1,18931.04%59915.64%160.42%80.21%83021.67%3,831
Portsmouth City4,61262.48%2,05627.86%6158.33%821.11%160.22%2,55634.63%7,381
Radford City82646.80%85048.16%804.53%60.34%30.17%-24-1.36%1,765
Richmond City16,46646.64%14,54941.21%3,89211.03%3070.87%870.25%1,9175.43%35,301
Roanoke City5,34340.48%6,54249.56%1,2449.42%600.45%110.08%-1,199-9.08%13,200
South Norfolk City85766.80%34727.05%735.69%60.47%00.00%51039.75%1,283
Staunton City91434.19%1,32349.49%41815.64%90.34%90.34%-409-15.30%2,673
Suffolk City1,03049.76%74135.80%24611.88%512.46%20.10%28913.96%2,070
Warwick City1,82257.57%1,01432.04%3069.67%130.41%100.32%80825.53%3,165
Waynesboro City83946.77%83346.43%1186.58%00.00%40.22%60.33%1,794
Williamsburg City31236.75%33439.34%19122.50%80.94%40.47%-22-2.59%849
Winchester City89435.11%1,27249.96%37114.57%70.27%20.08%-378-14.85%2,546
Totals200,78647.89%172,07041.04%43,39310.35%2,0470.49%9600.23%28,7166.85%419,256

Counties and Independent Cities that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Counties that flipped from Democratic to States' Rights Democratic

Analysis

Ultimately, Virginia was won by Truman with 47.89 percent of the vote to Dewey's 41.04 percent and Thurmond's 10.35 percent. This contradicted polls that expected Dewey to carry the state with around 47 percent of the vote to Truman's 45 percent and 7 to 8 percent for Thurmond.[22] This election nonetheless accelerated the major losses Franklin D. Roosevelt experienced in the Washington D.C. suburbs and the Shenandoah Valley at the previous election — losses which would pave the way for Virginia voting Republican in thirteen of the next fourteen presidential elections.[23]

, this is the last election in which the Fifth Congressional District has supported a Democratic presidential candidate. It is also the last election when Hanover County, King William County, Lancaster County, Middlesex County and Orange County have supported a Democratic presidential nominee.[24] Chesterfield County and Lynchburg City would not vote Democratic again at a presidential level until 2020, Henrico County not until 2008, Albemarle County and Danville City not until 2004, Prince Edward County not until 1996 and Amelia County not until 1976.[24]

This remains the last occasion Virginia voted to the left of Delaware, and was also the last time until 2012 that Virginia voted for a different candidate than Indiana.

Works cited

Notes and References

  1. Book: Kousser, J. Morgan. The Shaping of Southern Politics: Suffrage Restriction and the Establishment of the One-Party South, 1880-1910. Yale University Press. 178–181. 0-300-01696-4.
  2. Book: Key, Valdimer Orlando. Southern Politics in State and Nation. 1949. 20–25.
  3. Book: Heersink. Boris. Jenkins. Jeffrey A.. Republican Party Politics and the American South, 1865-1968. 217–221. 1107158435.
  4. Moger. Allen. The Rift in Virginia Democracy in 1896. The Journal of Southern History. 4. 3. 295–317.
  5. Book: [[Kevin Phillips (political commentator)|Phillips]], Kevin P.. The Emerging Republican Majority. 193, 219. 1969. 0870000586.
  6. Phillips. The Emerging Republican Majority, p. 195
  7. Hawkes (junior). Robert T.. The Emergence of a Leader: Harry Flood Byrd, Governor of Virginia, 1926-1930. July 1974. 82. 3. The Virginia Magazine of History and Biography. 259–281.
  8. Book: Davidson. Chandler. Grofman. Bernard. 1994. Quiet revolution in the South: the impact of the Voting rights act, 1965-1990. 275–276. 0691032475.
  9. Guthrie. Paul Daniel. The Dixiecrat Movement of 1948. 179-181. Bowling Green State University. 144207. 1955.
  10. News: Thurmond Says Party Holds Hope to U.S.. Daily Press. Newport News, Virginia. October 10, 1948. 1.
  11. News: Tour Pays Off: Thurmond Is Said Gaining Strength Rapidly in Once-Lukewarm Virginia. October 9, 1948. 1. The Item. Sumter, South Carolina.
  12. News: The Break-Up of the South’s Political Pattern. Norfolk Ledger-Dispatch. Norfolk, Virginia. October 16, 1948. 6.
  13. News: Gallup. George. Only Four States Go to Dixiecrats. Chattanooga Daily Times. Chattanooga, Tennessee. October 15, 1948. 6-A.
  14. News: Moss. Charles. Virginia. The Montgomery Advertiser. Montgomery, Alabama. 16. October 24, 1948.
  15. News: Johnston. Ben B.. October 25, 1948. Virginia. 8. The Miami News. Miami, Florida.
  16. News: Tucker. Ray. Truman Whistling in a White House Graveyard, Says Tucker, Predicting It’ll Be a Dewey Sweep. Mount Vernon Argus. Mount Vernon, New York. November 1, 1948. 8.
  17. News: Gallup. George. Final Gallup Poll Shows Dewey Winning Election with Wide Electoral Vote Margin. Oakland Tribune. Oakland, California. November 1, 1948. 1–2.
  18. Web site: Statistics of the Presidential and Congressional Election of November 2, 1948 . Clerk of the House of Representatives . 42.
  19. Web site: Géoelections. 1948 Presidential Election Popular Vote. (.xlsx file for €15)
  20. Web site: Géoelections. Popular Vote for Strom Thurmond. (.xlsx file for €15)
  21. Web site: Géoelections. Popular Vote for Henry Wallace. (.xlsx file for €15)
  22. Book: Mosteller, Frederick. The pre-election polls of 1948; report to the Committee on Analysis of Pre-election Polls and Forecasts. 1949. 27. New York City. Social Science Research Council. Committee on Analysis of Pre-election Polls and Forecasts.
  23. Book: Atkinson, Frank B.. 2006. The Dynamic Dominion: Realignment and the Rise of Two-party Competition in Virginia, 1945-1980. Rowman & Littlefield. 9780742552098.
  24. Book: Menendez, Albert J.. The Geography of Presidential Elections in the United States, 1868-2004. 327–331. 0786422173. 2005.