2016 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania explained

See main article: article and 2016 United States presidential election.

Election Name:	2016 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania
Country:	Pennsylvania
Flag Image:	Flag of Pennsylvania.svg
Type:	presidential
Ongoing:	no
Previous Election:	2012 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania
Previous Year:	2012
Election Date:	November 8, 2016
Next Election:	2020 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania
Next Year:	2020
Image1:	File:Donald Trump official portrait (cropped).jpg
Nominee1:	Donald Trump
Party1:	Pennsylvania Republican Party
Home State1:	New York
Running Mate1:	Mike Pence
Electoral Vote1:	20
Popular Vote1:	2,970,733
Percentage1:
Nominee2:	Hillary Clinton
Running Mate2:	Tim Kaine
Party2:	Pennsylvania Democratic Party
Home State2:	New York
Electoral Vote2:	0
Popular Vote2:	2,926,441
President
Before Election:	Barack Obama
Before Party:	Democratic Party (United States)
After Election:	Donald Trump
After Party:	Republican Party (United States)
Turnout:	71.31%

The 2016 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania took place on November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 United States elections in which all 50 states and the District of Columbia participated. Pennsylvania voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote.

On April 26, 2016, in the presidential primaries, voters selected the Democratic, Republican, and Green parties' respective nominees for president. Pennsylvania is a closed primary state, meaning voters must have been previously registered with a particular political party in order to vote for one of that parties' candidates, to participate in their respective party primary.^[1]

In the general election, Donald Trump, the Republican nominee, won Pennsylvania by 44,292 votes out of more than 6 million cast, a margin of 0.72% and the narrowest margin in a presidential election since 1840, when William Henry Harrison defeated Martin Van Buren by just 0.12%. Pennsylvania voted 2.82% more Republican than the nation-at-large, marking the first time since 1948 that Pennsylvania voted to the right of the nation.

Prior to the election, Pennsylvania was expected to be close as polling showed the results within the margin of error, but many election experts viewed that Clinton had an edge.^{[2] [3]} However, on Election Day, Pennsylvania unexpectedly swung to Donald Trump. Trump carried 56 of the state's 67 counties, predominantly rural or suburban counties, while Clinton carried much of the Philadelphia metropolitan area as well as other cities including Pittsburgh, Harrisburg and Scranton. Nonetheless, some areas of traditional Democratic strength such as Luzerne County, where Wilkes-Barre is located, saw swings in margins of up to 25% toward Donald Trump, making him the first Republican nominee for president to win Pennsylvania since George H. W. Bush in 1988.

Primaries

Democratic primary

See main article: article and 2016 Pennsylvania Democratic presidential primary.

Green Party

Pennsylvania held a series of caucuses throughout April, culminating with a meeting on April 30 in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, where delegates were assigned.^{[4] [5]}

Pennsylvania Green Party presidential caucuses, April 17, 2016

Candidate	Votes	Percentage	National delegates
Jill Stein	-	-	8
William Kreml	-	-	1
Sedinam Kinamo Christin Moyowasifza Curry	-	-	-
Darryl Cherney	-	-	-
Kent Mesplay	-	-	-
Total	-	100.00%	9

Democratic National Convention

From July 25 to July 28, 2016, Philadelphia hosted the 2016 Democratic National Convention. It was held at the Wells Fargo Center with ancillary meetings at the Pennsylvania Convention Center. Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was chosen as the party's nominee for president by a 59.67% majority of delegates present at the convention roll call and then winning the nomination. While runner-up rival Senator Bernie Sanders received 39.16% of votes from delegates. Clinton becoming the first female candidate to be formally nominated by a major national party as a presidential candidate in the United States. Her running mate, Senator Tim Kaine, the junior United States senator from Virginia was chosen by delegates as the party's nominee for vice president by acclamation.

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
CNN^[6]		November 4, 2016
Cook Political Report^[7]		November 7, 2016
Electoral-vote.com^[8]		November 6, 2016
NBC^[9]		November 7, 2016
RealClearPolitics^[10]		November 6, 2016
align=left	Rothenberg Political Report^[11]		November 7, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball^[12]		November 7, 2016

By congressional district

Trump won 12 of 18 congressional districts, including one which elected a Democrat, while Clinton won 6 including two that elected a Republican.^[13]

District	Trump	Clinton	Representative
	1	18%	80%		Bob Brady
2	8%	90%		Chaka Fattah
			Dwight Evans
	3	61%	35%		Mike Kelly
	4	59%	37%		Scott Perry
	5	62%	34%
	6	48%	48%		Ryan Costello
	7	47%	49%		Patrick Meehan
8	48%	48%		Mike Fitzpatrick
			Brian Fitzpatrick
	9	70%	27%		Bill Shuster
	10	66%	30%		Tom Marino
	11	60%	36%		Lou Barletta
	12	59%	38%		Keith Rothfus
	13	32%	65%		Brendan Boyle
	14	31%	66%		Mike Doyle
	15	52%	44%		Charlie Dent
16	51%	44%		Joe Pitts
			Lloyd Smucker
	17	53%	43%		Matt Cartwright
	18	58%	39%		Tim Murphy

By county

County^[14]	Donald Trump Republican		Hillary Clinton Democratic		Gary Johnson Libertarian		Jill Stein Green		Darrell Castle Constitution		Various candidates Other parties		Margin		Total votes cast
		%		%		%		%		%		%		%
	Adams		31,423		65.48%		14,219		29.63%		1,251		2.61%		405		0.84%		191		0.40%		501		1.04%		17,204		35.85%		47,990
	Allegheny		259,480		39.48%		367,617		55.94%		16,102		2.45%		5,097		0.78%		1,818		0.28%		7,075		1.08%		-108,137		-16.46%		657,189
	Armstrong		23,484		73.70%		7,178		22.53%		685		2.15%		141		0.44%		130		0.41%		246		0.77%		16,306		51.17%		31,864
	Beaver		48,167		57.03%		32,531		38.52%		2,022		2.39%		496		0.59%		355		0.42%		891		1.05%		15,636		18.51%		84,462
	Bedford		19,552		82.59%		3,645		15.40%		260		1.10%		102		0.43%		78		0.33%		38		0.16%		15,907		67.19%		23,675
	Berks		96,626		52.49%		78,437		42.61%		5,247		2.85%		1,974		1.07%		781		0.42%		1,020		0.55%		18,189		9.88%		184,085
	Blair		39,135		70.72%		13,958		25.22%		1,256		2.27%		338		0.61%		222		0.40%		432		0.79%		25,177		45.50%		55,341
	Bradford		18,141		69.81%		6,369		24.51%		893		3.44%		137		0.53%		168		0.65%		278		1.07%		11,772		45.30%		25,986
	Bucks		164,361		47.64%		167,060		48.42%		8,556		2.48%		3,121		0.90%		1,199		0.35%		745		0.22%		-2,699		-0.78%		345,042
	Butler		64,431		65.71%		28,586		29.15%		3,064		3.12%		615		0.63%		382		0.39%		973		0.99%		35,845		36.56%		98,051
	Cambria		42,258		66.45%		18,867		29.67%		1,270		2.00%		413		0.65%		264		0.42%		517		0.81%		23,391		36.78%		63,589
	Cameron		1,589		71.90%		531		24.03%		53		2.40%		6		0.27%		7		0.32%		24		1.09%		1,058		47.87%		2,210
	Carbon		18,743		64.65%		8,936		30.82%		691		2.38%		265		0.91%		141		0.49%		217		0.75%		9,807		33.83%		28,993
	Centre		35,274		45.63%		37,088		47.97%		2,644		3.42%		798		1.03%		344		0.44%		1,159		0.94%		-1,814		-2.34%		77,307
	Chester		116,114		42.53%		141,682		51.90%		7,930		2.90%		2,247		0.82%		827		0.30%		4,198		1.54%		-25,568		-9.37%		272,998
	Clarion		12,576		71.21%		4,273		24.20%		469		2.66%		115		0.65%		102		0.58%		125		0.71%		8,303		47.01%		17,660
	Clearfield		24,932		72.16%		8,200		23.73%		776		2.25%		220		0.64%		143		0.41%		279		0.81%		16,732		48.43%		34,550
	Clinton		10,022		64.64%		4,744		30.60%		470		3.03%		121		0.78%		37		0.24%		111		0.71%		5,278		34.04%		15,505
	Columbia		18,004		63.16%		8,934		31.34%		883		3.10%		265		0.93%		142		0.50%		278		0.97%		9,070		31.82%		28,506
	Crawford		24,987		66.08%		10,971		29.01%		1,046		2.77%		271		0.72%		217		0.57%		321		0.85%		14,016		37.07%		37,813
	Cumberland		69,076		55.94%		47,085		38.13%		3,975		3.22%		939		0.76%		542		0.44%		1,869		1.51%		21,991		17.81%		123,486
	Dauphin		60,863		46.18%		64,706		49.10%		3,498		2.65%		1,177		0.89%		628		0.48%		911		0.69%		-3,843		-2.92%		131,783
	Delaware		110,667		36.97%		177,402		59.27%		5,992		2.00%		2,588		0.86%		985		0.33%		1,702		0.57%		-66,735		-22.30%		299,336
	Elk		10,025		68.91%		3,853		26.49%		401		2.76%		79		0.54%		68		0.47%		121		0.83%		6,172		42.42%		14,547
	Erie		60,069		48.01%		58,112		46.44%		3,871		3.09%		1,139		0.91%		488		0.39%		1,450		1.16%		1,957		1.57%		125,129
	Fayette		34,590		63.94%		17,946		33.17%		853		1.58%		232		0.43%		146		0.27%		332		0.61%		16,644		30.77%		54,099
	Forest		1,684		69.59%		626		25.87%		60		2.48%		19		0.79%		13		0.54%		18		0.74%		1,058		43.72%		2,420
	Franklin		49,768		70.59%		17,465		24.77%		1,712		2.43%		450		0.64%		336		0.48%		775		1.10%		32,303		45.82%		70,506
	Fulton		5,694		83.47%		912		13.37%		93		1.36%		37		0.54%		35		0.51%		51		0.75%		4,782		70.10%		6,822
	Greene		10,849		68.37%		4,482		28.25%		284		1.79%		83		0.52%		66		0.42%		104		0.66%		6,367		40.12%		15,868
	Huntingdon		14,494		72.96%		4,539		22.85%		425		2.14%		96		0.48%		152		0.77%		160		0.81%		9,955		50.11%		19,866
	Indiana		24,888		65.29%		11,528		30.24%		936		2.46%		220		0.58%		198		0.52%		352		0.92%		13,360		35.05%		38,122
	Jefferson		15,192		77.53%		3,650		18.63%		432		2.20%		110		0.56%		94		0.48%		117		0.60%		11,542		58.90%		19,595
	Juniata		8,273		78.45%		1,821		17.27%		201		1.91%		71		0.67%		88		0.83%		91		0.86%		6,452		61.18%		10,545
	Lackawanna		48,384		46.34%		51,983		49.79%		1,935		1.85%		896		0.86%		258		0.25%		948		0.91%		-3,599		-3.45%		104,404
	Lancaster		137,914		56.33%		91,093		37.21%		8,555		3.49%		2,021		0.83%		1,529		0.62%		3,720		1.52%		46,821		19.12%		244,832
	Lawrence		25,428		61.90%		14,009		34.11%		870		2.12%		248		0.60%		198		0.48%		323		0.79%		11,419		27.79%		41,076
	Lebanon		40,525		64.84%		18,953		30.32%		1,647		2.64%		422		0.68%		298		0.48%		658		1.05%		21,572		34.52%		62,503
	Lehigh		73,690		45.28%		81,324		49.97%		4,027		2.47%		1,402		0.86%		550		0.34%		1,740		1.07%		-7,634		-4.69%		162,733
	Luzerne		78,688		57.90%		52,451		38.60%		2,339		1.72%		1,178		0.87%		327		0.24%		918		0.68%		26,237		19.30%		135,901
	Lycoming		35,627		69.68%		13,020		25.46%		1,311		2.56%		384		0.75%		223		0.44%		566		1.11%		22,607		44.22%		51,131
	McKean		11,635		70.67%		4,025		24.45%		408		2.48%		151		0.92%		77		0.47%		168		1.02%		7,610		46.22%		16,464
	Mercer		31,544		59.70%		18,733		35.45%		1,370		2.59%		415		0.79%		247		0.47%		530		1.00%		12,811		24.25%		52,839
	Mifflin		14,094		75.28%		3,877		20.71%		476		2.54%		80		0.43%		74		0.40%		120		0.64%		10,217		54.57%		18,721
	Monroe		33,386		47.69%		33,918		48.45%		1,502		2.15%		758		1.08%		188		0.27%		256		0.36%		-532		-0.76%		70,008
	Montgomery		162,731		37.10%		256,082		58.38%		10,934		2.49%		3,704		0.84%		1,236		0.28%		3,965		0.90%		-93,351		-21.28%		438,652
	Montour		5,288		61.80%		2,857		33.39%		287		3.35%		73		0.85%		51		0.60%		0		0.00%		2,431		28.41%		8,556
	Northampton		71,736		49.62%		66,275		45.84%		3,690		2.55%		1,371		0.95%		450		0.31%		1,047		0.72%		5,461		3.78%		144,569
	Northumberland		25,427		68.89%		9,788		26.52%		931		2.52%		296		0.80%		180		0.49%		285		0.77%		15,639		42.37%		36,907
	Perry		15,616		73.07%		4,632		21.67%		619		2.90%		163		0.76%		128		0.60%		213		1.00%		10,984		51.40%		21,371
	Philadelphia		108,748		15.32%		584,025		82.30%		7,115		1.00%		6,679		0.94%		1,064		0.15%		1,987		0.28%		-475,277		-66.98%		709,618
	Pike		16,061		61.06%		9,268		35.24%		494		1.88%		226		0.86%		71		0.27%		183		0.70%		6,793		25.82%		26,303
	Potter		6,251		79.49%		1,302		16.56%		165		2.10%		35		0.45%		31		0.39%		80		1.01%		4,949		62.93%		7,864
	Schuylkill		44,001		69.42%		16,770		26.46%		1,414		2.23%		449		0.71%		235		0.37%		516		0.81%		27,231		42.96%		63,385
	Snyder		11,725		71.12%		4,002		24.28%		455		2.76%		111		0.67%		70		0.42%		123		0.75%		7,723		46.84%		16,486
	Somerset		27,379		75.90%		7,376		20.45%		678		1.88%		166		0.46%		174		0.48%		300		0.83%		20,003		55.45%		36,073
	Sullivan		2,291		72.68%		750		23.79%		65		2.06%		14		0.44%		16		0.51%		16		0.51%		1,541		48.89%		3,152
	Susquehanna		12,891		67.69%		5,123		26.90%		568		2.98%		192		1.01%		89		0.47%		180		0.95%		7,768		40.79%		19,043
	Tioga		13,614		73.56%		3,901		21.08%		548		2.96%		139		0.75%		123		0.66%		182		0.98%		9,713		52.48%		18,507
	Union		10,622		60.02%		6,180		34.92%		450		2.54%		143		0.81%		73		0.41%		228		1.29%		4,442		25.43%		17,696
	Venango		16,021		68.09%		6,309		26.81%		733		3.12%		149		0.63%		136		0.58%		182		0.77%		9,712		41.28%		23,530
	Warren		12,477		67.06%		5,145		27.65%		549		2.95%		130		0.70%		133		0.71%		172		0.92%		7,332		39.41%		18,606
	Washington		61,386		60.03%		36,322		35.52%		2,643		2.58%		733		0.72%		366		0.36%		817		0.80%		25,064		24.51%		102,267
	Wayne		16,244		67.63%		7,008		29.18%		466		1.94%		206		0.86%		94		0.39%		0		0.00%		9,236		38.45%		24,018
	Westmoreland		116,522		63.50%		59,669		32.52%		4,367		2.38%		936		0.51%		557		0.30%		1,441		0.79%		56,853		30.98%		183,492
	Wyoming		8,837		66.63%		3,811		28.74%		323		2.44%		116		0.87%		57		0.43%		118		0.89%		5,026		37.89%		13,262
	York		128,528		61.78%		68,524		32.94%		6,484		3.12%		1,568		0.75%		882		0.42%		2,043		0.98%		60,004		28.84%		208,029
Totals	2,970,742	48.17%	2,926,458	47.45%	146,719	2.38%	49,941	0.81%	21,572	0.35%	51,506	0.83%	44,284	0.72%	6,166,938

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

• Erie (largest city: Erie)
• Luzerne (largest city: Wilkes-Barre)
• Northampton (largest city: Bethlehem)

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

• Chester (largest borough: West Chester)

Analysis

2016 would also be the first presidential election since 1948 in which the Democratic nominee won the popular vote without the state. Pennsylvania's vote for Donald Trump, along with that of Wisconsin and Michigan, marked the fall of the Democratic Blue Wall, a bloc of over 240 electoral votes that voted solidly Democratic from 1992 to 2012. Pennsylvania was one of the eleven states to have voted twice for Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996 which Hillary Clinton lost in 2016. Although Wisconsin eventually delivered the Trump victory, when the Clinton campaign learned that they had lost Pennsylvania, they then knew that they had lost the election.^[15] Trump became the first Republican ever to win the White House without carrying Chester or Dauphin Counties, as well as the first to do so without carrying Centre County since Benjamin Harrison in 1888, and the first to do so without carrying Monroe County since Calvin Coolidge in 1924. He also became the first Republican to win Pennsylvania without carrying any of Philadelphia's suburban counties.

See also

• List of United States presidential elections in Pennsylvania
• 2016 Democratic Party presidential debates and forums
• 2016 Democratic Party presidential primaries
• 2016 Republican Party presidential debates and forums
• 2016 Republican Party presidential primaries

External links

• RNC 2016 Republican Nominating Process
• Green papers for 2016 primaries, caucuses, and conventions

Notes and References

1. Web site: About Voting and Elections . Votespa.com . 2015-05-19 . 2016-04-10 . 2016-04-08 . https://web.archive.org/web/20160408160231/http://www.votespa.com/portal/server.pt?open=514&objID=1173919&parentname=ObjMgr&parentid=1&mode=2 . dead .
2. Web site: Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein . realclearpolitics.com . 2016-11-05.
3. News: Clinton Has Solid Lead in Electoral College; Trump's Winning Map Is Unclear . 2016-11-06 . The New York Times . 2018-10-30 . en . The final nonpartisan live interview polls there show Mrs. Clinton ahead by a comfortable margin of four to six points. The state will probably be close, but it's quite clear that she has the edge..
4. Web site: 2016 PA Green Party Caucus Information and Schedule. Pennsylvania Green Party . 2016-04-09. 2016-04-10.
5. Web site: #Greens, join us in caucusing and voting for our GP of PA Presidential Candidates in April.. Pennsylvania Green Party . 2016-04-09. 2016-04-10.
6. News: Chalian . David . David Chalian . Road to 270: CNN's new election map . 10 February 2019 . CNN . 4 November 2016.
7. Web site: 2016 Electoral Scorecard . . 10 February 2019 . en . 7 November 2016 . February 7, 2019 . https://web.archive.org/web/20190207225032/https://www.cookpolitical.com/presidential/charts/scorecard . dead .
8. Web site: 2016 Predicted Electoral Map . . 10 February 2019.
9. News: Todd . Chuck . Chuck Todd. NBC's final battleground map shows a lead for Clinton . 10 February 2019 . NBC News . 7 November 2016 . en.
10. Web site: 2016 Election Maps - Battle for White House . . 10 February 2019.
11. Web site: Presidential Ratings . The Rothenberg Political Report . August 16, 2021.
12. Web site: Sabato . Larry . 7 November 2016 . Larry Sabato . The Crystal Ball's 2016 Electoral College ratings . . 10 February 2019.
13. Web site: Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index. The Cook Political Report.
14. Web site: 2016 Presidential General Election Results - Pennsylvania.
15. Burstein, Nanette (Director). March 6, 2020. Episode 4 - Be Our Champion, Go Away. Hillary. Documentary. en. Hulu.