2004 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania explained

See main article: 2004 United States presidential election.

Election Name:	2004 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania
Country:	Pennsylvania
Type:	presidential
Ongoing:	no
Previous Election:	2000 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania
Previous Year:	2000
Next Election:	2008 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania
Next Year:	2008
Election Date:	November 2, 2004
Image1:	John F. Kerry.jpg
Nominee1:	John Kerry
Party1:	Democratic Party (United States)
Home State1:	Massachusetts
Running Mate1:	John Edwards
Electoral Vote1:	21
Popular Vote1:	2,938,095
Percentage1:	50.92%
Nominee2:	George W. Bush
Party2:	Republican Party (United States)
Home State2:	Texas
Running Mate2:	Dick Cheney
Electoral Vote2:	0
Popular Vote2:	2,793,847
Percentage2:	48.42%
President
Before Election:	George W. Bush
Before Party:	Republican Party (United States)
After Election:	George W. Bush
After Party:	Republican Party (United States)

The 2004 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 21 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

Pennsylvania was won by Democratic nominee John Kerry by a 2.50% margin of victory. Although no Republican carried this state in a presidential election since Bush's father George H. W. Bush in 1988, early polling showed the race was a toss-up, thus was considered as a possible target for the Republicans. Prior to the election, most news organizations considered this a toss-up, or a crucial swing state. Later polling favored Kerry, leading half of the news organizations to predict that Kerry would win the state, but the other half still considered it a swing state. Although the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania voted for the Democratic presidential nominee in six subsequent elections since 1992, the margins of victory had become smaller over the past elections. On election day, Kerry won the state with 50.92% of the vote, but won only 13 of the 67 counties in Pennsylvania. Most of these 13 counties have the highest populations in the commonwealth. The biggest key to Kerry's victory was winning Philadelphia County with 80.44% of the vote.

Bush was the first president elected to two terms in office without carrying Pennsylvania either time since Woodrow Wilson in 1912 and 1916, and is to date the only Republican presidential candidate to win the presidency without carrying the state at least once, as well as the most recent Republican to win without the state. Although Pennsylvania was also not carried by the winner of the 2000 presidential race, this election also marked the first time since 1968 that Pennsylvania voted against the winner of the national popular vote. Bush was the first Republican to win the national popular vote without Pennsylvania since the 1968 presidential race.

As of 2020, this is the most recent election to date in which Pennsylvania would vote for the losing candidate, thus the state is tied with Wisconsin and Michigan for the longest bellwether streak in the nation.

As of 2022, this is the last time that Pennsylvania voted to the left of New Mexico and Nevada.

Primaries

Eligibility

In order to vote in the primary, one must have been:^[1]

1. "A citizen of the United States for at least one month before the next primary, special, municipal, or general election."
2. "A resident of Pennsylvania and the election district in which the individual desires to register and vote for at least 30 days before the next primary, special, municipal, or general election."
3. "At least 18 years of age on or before the day of the next primary, special, municipal, or general election."
4. A registered member of the party holding the primary

Convicted felons could not vote from prison and were not allowed to register to vote for five years after being released from prison.

Registration

Individuals could register to vote at County Voter Registration offices, through the mail, at a Department of Transportation office, or at various other government agency offices.^[2]

Voters must have been registered 30 days prior to the election in order to be eligible to vote.^[2]

Democratic primary election

See main article: 2004 Pennsylvania Democratic presidential primary. The Democratic primary took place on April 27, 2004. It was open to registered Democrats only.

Results

100% of precincts reporting

Candidate	Votes^[3]	Percentage	Delegates
	585,683	74.1%	150
	79,799	10.1%	1
	76,762	9.7%	0
	30,110	3.8%	0
	17,528	2.2%	0
Uncommitted	-	2.2%	27
Total	789,882	100%	178

Note: Twenty seven delegates remained uncommitted until they reached the floor of the convention. Kerry eventually received all 178 delegates from Pennsylvania.^[4]

Republican primary election

The Republican primary took place on April 27, 2004. It was open to registered Republicans only. Incumbent President George W. Bush ran unopposed.^[5]

General election

Predictions

There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.^[6]

!Source!Ranking

D.C. Political Report
Associated Press
CNN
Cook Political Report
Newsweek
New York Times
Rasmussen Reports
Research 2000
Washington Post
Washington Times
Zogby International
Washington Dispatch

Polling

Al Gore won Pennsylvania in 2000 with just over 50% of the vote. In late October 2004, the state was split at 47% on whether or not to approve of Bush. But Kerry won the poll 48% to 46% in the last Mason Dixon poll.^[7] Throughout the election of 2004, Kerry won most of the polls in the upper 40% to lower 50% range. However, Bush polled within the margin of error, usually in the mid 40% range. In the last Real Clear Politics average Kerry was leading with 48% and by almost a 1% margin.^[8]

Fundraising

Bush raised $5,030,349.^[9] Kerry raised $4,998,861.^[10]

Advertising and visits

President Bush campaigned heavily and visited the state of Pennsylvania over twenty times in 2004. It was not enough to flip the state, as John Kerry won the undecided Pennsylvanians. He won the state's electors with almost 51% of the vote, outperforming Vice President Al Gore's performance four years earlier.^{[11] [12]}

Analysis

This Kerry victory can be attributed to the overwhelmingly Democratic cities of Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, and Erie. Although Kerry-held cities which voted for the Senator by narrow margins assisted him in advancing his margin over President Bush, many political analysts underscored the fact that if Philadelphia were excluded, President George W. Bush would have won Pennsylvania by a fairly slim margin, with 2,663,748 versus 2,395,890 for Kerry. Although Pennsylvania is closely divided in most elections, it did not vote Republican in a presidential election from 1992 to 2012.

Philadelphia and Pittsburgh were the biggest contributors to Kerry's victory in Pennsylvania. However, many independents in suburban Philadelphia counties (Bucks, Delaware, Montgomery, and somewhat in Chester) voted for Kerry, which may well have been the deciding factor. Kerry also had narrow margins of victory around cities like Allentown, Scranton, Erie, and the traditionally Democratic Pittsburgh suburbs; he also garnered many votes in certain rural areas such as parts of the Poconos and the Laurel Highlands, and in cities like Reading, Johnstown, Harrisburg, and State College. Bush's margins were extremely large in Central Pennsylvania and the sparsely populated Northern Tier, with traditional GOP cities such as Lancaster, Lebanon, York, Altoona, Huntingdon, and Williamsport strongly throwing their support behind him. This area, along with rural western Maryland, was clearly the most conservative in the Mid-Atlantic.

, this is the last presidential election that the Democratic candidate won any county bordering Allegheny County, namely Washington County, Beaver County and Fayette County. This is also the last election in which Dauphin County, Centre County, and Monroe County voted for the Republican candidate. This is also the last time that Chester County gave a majority to a Republican, although Mitt Romney did win the county with a plurality in 2012.

Results

2004 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania
Party		Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Electoral votes
	Democratic	John Kerry	2,938,095	50.92%	21
	Republican	George W. Bush (incumbent)	2,793,847	48.42%	0
	Libertarian	Michael Badnarik	21,185	0.37%	0
	Green	David Cobb	6,319	0.11%	0
	Constitution	Michael Peroutka	6,318	0.11%	0
	Independent	Ralph Nader (write-in)^[13]	2,656	0.05%	0
	Independent	Write Ins	1,170	0.02%	0
Totals			5,769,590	100.00%	21
Voter turnout (Voting Age population)					60.5%

By county

County^[14]	John Kerry Democratic		George W. Bush Republican		Michael J. Badnarik Libertarian		David Cobb Green		Michael Peroutka Constitution		Margin		Total votes cast
		%		%		%		%		%		%
	Adams		13,764		32.59%		28,247		66.89%		95		0.22%		63		0.15%		59		0.14%		-14,483		-34.30%		42,228
	Allegheny		368,912		57.15%		271,925		42.13%		3,573		0.55%		551		0.09%		508		0.08%		96,987		15.02%		645,469
	Armstrong		12,025		38.67%		18,925		60.86%		56		0.18%		41		0.13%		50		0.16%		-6,900		-22.19%		31,097
	Beaver		42,146		51.06%		39,916		48.36%		165		0.20%		141		0.17%		175		0.21%		2,230		2.70%		82,543
	Bedford		6,016		26.53%		16,606		73.22%		19		0.08%		15		0.07%		23		0.10%		-10,590		-46.69%		22,679
	Berks		76,309		46.39%		87,122		52.97%		551		0.33%		295		0.18%		210		0.13%		-10,813		-6.58%		164,487
	Blair		18,105		33.42%		35,751		65.99%		210		0.39%		54		0.10%		58		0.11%		-17,646		-32.57%		54,178
	Bradford		8,590		33.49%		16,942		66.05%		57		0.22%		27		0.11%		36		0.14%		-8,352		-32.56%		25,652
	Bucks		163,438		51.10%		154,469		48.30%		1,338		0.42%		308		0.10%		263		0.08%		8,969		2.80%		319,816
	Butler		30,090		35.22%		54,959		64.34%		182		0.21%		83		0.10%		111		0.13%		-24,869		-29.12%		85,425
	Cambria		32,591		48.66%		34,048		50.83%		159		0.24%		86		0.13%		99		0.15%		-1,457		-2.17%		66,983
	Cameron		794		33.00%		1,599		66.46%		8		0.33%		3		0.12%		2		0.08%		-805		-33.46%		2,406
	Carbon		12,223		48.81%		12,519		49.99%		229		0.91%		42		0.17%		30		0.12%		-296		-1.18%		25,043
	Centre		30,733		47.74%		33,133		51.47%		227		0.35%		90		0.14%		70		0.11%		-2,400		-3.73%		64,374
	Chester		109,708		47.53%		120,036		52.00%		632		0.27%		263		0.11%		184		0.08%		-10,328		-4.47%		230,823
	Clarion		6,049		35.20%		11,063		64.38%		37		0.22%		19		0.11%		16		0.09%		-5,014		-29.18%		17,184
	Clearfield		13,518		39.49%		20,533		59.98%		68		0.20%		47		0.14%		67		0.20%		-7,015		-20.49%		34,233
	Clinton		5,823		41.69%		8,035		57.53%		83		0.59%		13		0.09%		13		0.09%		-2,212		-15.84%		13,967
	Columbia		10,679		39.74%		16,052		59.74%		57		0.21%		39		0.15%		42		0.16%		-5,373		-20.00%		26,869
	Crawford		16,013		41.79%		21,965		57.32%		176		0.46%		63		0.16%		105		0.27%		-5,952		-15.53%		38,322
	Cumberland		37,928		35.75%		67,648		63.77%		265		0.25%		112		0.11%		129		0.12%		-29,720		-28.02%		106,082
	Dauphin		55,299		45.62%		65,296		53.87%		274		0.23%		171		0.14%		168		0.14%		-9,997		-8.25%		121,208
	Delaware		162,601		57.15%		120,425		42.32%		946		0.33%		312		0.11%		254		0.09%		42,176		14.83%		284,538
	Elk		6,602		45.37%		7,872		54.10%		25		0.17%		20		0.14%		31		0.21%		-1,270		-8.73%		14,550
	Erie		67,921		53.95%		57,372		45.57%		334		0.27%		159		0.13%		112		0.09%		10,549		8.38%		125,898
	Fayette		29,120		53.23%		25,045		45.78%		447		0.82%		43		0.08%		52		0.10%		4,075		7.45%		54,707
	Forest		989		38.44%		1,571		61.06%		8		0.31%		3		0.12%		2		0.08%		-582		-22.62%		2,573
	Franklin		16,562		28.28%		41,817		71.40%		90		0.15%		44		0.08%		56		0.10%		-25,255		-43.12%		58,569
	Fulton		1,475		23.52%		4,772		76.10%		15		0.24%		4		0.06%		5		0.08%		-3,297		-52.58%		6,271
	Greene		7,674		49.30%		7,786		50.02%		32		0.21%		44		0.28%		29		0.19%		-112		-0.72%		15,565
	Huntingdon		5,879		32.56%		12,126		67.15%		20		0.11%		19		0.11%		14		0.08%		-6,247		-34.59%		18,058
	Indiana		15,831		43.67%		20,254		55.88%		77		0.21%		47		0.13%		39		0.11%		-4,423		-12.21%		36,248
	Jefferson		6,073		31.05%		13,371		68.36%		58		0.30%		28		0.14%		30		0.15%		-7,298		-37.31%		19,560
	Juniata		2,797		27.95%		7,144		71.40%		30		0.30%		15		0.15%		20		0.20%		-4,347		-43.45%		10,006
	Lackawanna		59,573		56.30%		44,766		42.30%		1,288		1.22%		113		0.11%		79		0.07%		14,807		14.00%		105,819
	Lancaster		74,328		33.58%		145,591		65.77%		705		0.32%		255		0.12%		399		0.18%		-71,263		-32.19%		221,372
	Lawrence		21,387		49.23%		21,938		50.50%		56		0.13%		26		0.06%		35		0.08%		-551		-1.27%		43,442
	Lebanon		18,109		32.53%		37,089		66.63%		323		0.58%		51		0.09%		93		0.17%		-18,980		-34.10%		55,665
	Lehigh		73,940		50.96%		70,160		48.36%		638		0.44%		160		0.11%		193		0.13%		3,780		2.60%		145,091
	Luzerne		69,573		51.15%		64,953		47.75%		1,195		0.88%		180		0.13%		127		0.09%		4,620		3.40%		136,028
	Lycoming		15,681		31.31%		33,961		67.81%		279		0.56%		77		0.15%		51		0.10%		-18,280		-36.50%		50,081
	Mckean		6,294		36.12%		10,941		62.79%		148		0.85%		23		0.13%		20		0.11%		-4,647		-26.67%		17,426
	Mercer		24,831		48.16%		26,311		51.03%		149		0.29%		133		0.26%		140		0.27%		-1,480		-2.87%		51,564
	Mifflin		4,889		29.10%		11,726		69.79%		144		0.86%		20		0.12%		23		0.14%		-6,837		-40.69%		16,802
	Monroe		27,967		49.64%		27,971		49.65%		287		0.51%		64		0.11%		53		0.09%		-4		-0.01%		56,342
	Montgomery		222,048		55.57%		175,741		43.98%		1,088		0.27%		349		0.09%		365		0.09%		46,307		11.59%		399,591
	Montour		2,666		34.97%		4,903		64.31%		34		0.45%		10		0.13%		11		0.14%		-2,237		-29.34%		7,624
	Northampton		63,446		50.02%		62,102		48.96%		885		0.70%		187		0.15%		120		0.09%		1,344		1.06%		126,849
	Northumberland		14,602		39.32%		22,262		59.95%		139		0.37%		47		0.13%		84		0.23%		-7,660		-20.63%		37,134
	Perry		5,423		27.91%		13,919		71.65%		36		0.19%		24		0.12%		25		0.13%		-8,496		-43.74%		19,427
	Philadelphia		542,205		80.44%		130,099		19.30%		895		0.13%		483		0.07%		387		0.06%		412,106		61.14%		674,069
	Pike		8,656		40.64%		12,444		58.43%		144		0.68%		31		0.15%		24		0.11%		-3,788		-17.79%		21,299
	Potter		2,268		28.49%		5,640		70.84%		18		0.23%		9		0.11%		27		0.34%		-3,372		-42.35%		7,962
	Schuylkill		29,231		44.79%		35,640		54.60%		186		0.28%		129		0.20%		83		0.13%		-6,409		-9.81%		65,269
	Snyder		4,348		29.02%		10,566		70.52%		33		0.22%		18		0.12%		18		0.12%		-6,218		-41.50%		14,983
	Somerset		12,842		34.92%		23,802		64.72%		48		0.13%		38		0.10%		48		0.13%		-10,960		-29.80%		36,778
	Sullivan		1,213		36.93%		2,056		62.59%		10		0.30%		5		0.15%		1		0.03%		-843		-25.66%		3,285
	Susquehanna		7,351		38.61%		11,573		60.78%		54		0.28%		33		0.17%		29		0.15%		-4,222		-22.17%		19,040
	Tioga		5,437		30.94%		12,019		68.40%		49		0.28%		23		0.13%		43		0.24%		-6,582		-37.46%		17,571
	Union		5,700		35.35%		10,334		64.09%		46		0.29%		30		0.19%		13		0.08%		-4,634		-28.74%		16,123
	Venango		9,024		38.14%		14,472		61.17%		93		0.39%		31		0.13%		39		0.16%		-5,448		-23.03%		23,659
	Warren		8,044		41.74%		10,999		57.07%		79		0.41%		34		0.18%		117		0.61%		-2,955		-15.33%		19,273
	Washington		48,225		50.14%		47,673		49.57%		142		0.15%		59		0.06%		78		0.08%		552		0.57%		96,177
	Wayne		8,060		36.69%		13,713		62.43%		136		0.62%		23		0.10%		35		0.16%		-5,653		-25.74%		21,967
	Westmoreland		77,774		43.52%		100,087		56.01%		474		0.27%		155		0.09%		206		0.12%		-22,313		-12.49%		178,696
	Wyoming		4,982		38.82%		7,782		60.65%		20		0.16%		22		0.17%		26		0.20%		-2,800		-21.83%		12,832
	York		63,701		35.53%		114,270		63.74%		821		0.46%		213		0.12%		264		0.15%		-50,569		-28.21%		179,269
Totals	2,938,095	50.92%	2,793,847	48.42%	21,185	0.37%	6,319	0.11%	6,318	0.11%	144,248	2.50%	5,769,590

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

• Cambria (largest municipality: Johnstown)
• Carbon (largest municipality: Lehighton)
• Greene (largest municipality: Waynesburg)
• Lawrence (largest municipality: New Castle)
• Mercer (largest municipality: Hermitage)

By congressional district

Kerry won 10 of 19 congressional districts, including four held by Republicans. Bush won 9 districts, including one held by a Democrat.^[15]

District	Bush	Kerry	Representative
		15%	84%		Bob Brady
		12%	87%		Chaka Fattah
		53%	47%		Phil English
		54%	45%		Melissa Hart
		61%	39%
		48%	52%		Jim Gerlach
		47%	53%		Curt Weldon
	48%	51%		James C. Greenwood
			Mike Fitzpatrick
		67%	33%		Bill Shuster
		60%	40%		Don Sherwood
		47%	53%		Paul Kanjorski
		49%	51%		John Murtha
	43%	56%		Joe Hoeffel
			Allyson Schwartz
		30%	69%		Mike Doyle
	50%	50%		Pat Toomey
			Charlie Dent
		61%	38%		Joe Pitts
		58%	42%		Tim Holden
		54%	46%		Tim Murphy
		64%	36%		Todd Platts

Electors

See main article: List of 2004 United States presidential electors.

Technically the voters of Pennsylvania cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Pa. is allocated 21 electors because it has 19 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 21 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 21 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 21 were pledged for Kerry/Edwards.

1. Lynne Abraham
2. Richard Bloomingdale
3. Blondell Reynolds Brown
4. Robert Casey Jr.
5. Eileen Connelly
6. H. William DeWeese
7. John Dougherty
8. Richard E. Filippi
9. William George
10. Renee Gillinger
11. Jennifer Mann
12. Robert J. Mellow
13. Dan Onorato
14. Juan Ramos
15. Stephen R. Reed
16. T.J. Rooney
17. Jonathan Saidel
18. John F. Street
19. Rosemary Trump
20. Sala Udin
21. Constance H. Williams

See also

• List of United States presidential elections in Pennsylvania

Notes and References

1. http://www.dos.state.pa.us/voting/cwp/view.asp?a=1192&q=443159&votingNav= Pennsylvania Department of State
2. http://www.dos.state.pa.us/voting/cwp/view.asp?a=1192&q=443061 Pennsylvania Department of State
3. Web site: Pennsylvania Department of State - Commissions, Elections, and Legislation . 2012-08-06 . https://web.archive.org/web/20051227132237/http://web.dos.state.pa.us/cgi-bin/ElectionResults/statewide1.cgi?choice=USP&eyear=2004&etype=P . 2005-12-27 . dead .
4. http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P04/PA-D.phtml Pennsylvania Democratic Delegation 2004
5. Web site: 2004 General Primary. Elections Information. Pennsylvania Department of State. August 6, 2012.
6. Web site: Archived copy . dcpoliticalreport.com . 13 January 2022 . https://web.archive.org/web/20101121204958/http://dcpoliticalreport.com/members/2004/Pred2.htm#NW . 21 November 2010 . dead.
7. https://www.nbcnews.com/id/wbna6369953 NBC News
8. Web site: RealClear Politics - Polls.
9. Web site: George W Bush - $374,659,453 raised, '04 election cycle, Republican Party, President.
10. Web site: John F Kerry - $345,826,176 raised, '04 election cycle, Democrat Party, President.
11. Web site: America votes 2004: Candidate tracker . . 2022-05-27.
12. News: America votes 2004: Campaign ad buys . CNN . 2022-05-27 . 2021-04-22 . https://web.archive.org/web/20210422073439/http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/special/president/campaign.ads/ . live .
13. News: Pennsylvania notes from the campaign trail. https://web.archive.org/web/20041116124342/http://www.wnep.com/Global/story.asp?S=2478509. October 2004. Associated Press. WNEP. November 16, 2004. April 26, 2024.
14. Web site: Pennsylvania Elections – County Breakdown Results . electionreturns.pa.gov . November 2, 2004 . December 28, 2019.
15. Web site: Presidential Results by Congressional District, 2000-2008 – Swing State Project.