2004 United States presidential election in Oklahoma explained

See main article: 2004 United States presidential election.

Election Name:2004 United States presidential election in Oklahoma
Country:Oklahoma
Flag Year:1988
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2000 United States presidential election in Oklahoma
Previous Year:2000
Next Election:2008 United States presidential election in Oklahoma
Next Year:2008
Election Date:November 2, 2004
Image1:George-W-Bush.jpeg
Nominee1:George W. Bush
Party1:Republican Party (United States)
Home State1:Texas
Running Mate1:Dick Cheney
Electoral Vote1:7
Popular Vote1:959,792
Percentage1:65.57%
Nominee2:John Kerry
Party2:Democratic Party (United States)
Home State2:Massachusetts
Running Mate2:John Edwards
Electoral Vote2:0
Popular Vote2:503,966
Percentage2:34.43%
Map Size:350px
President
Before Election:George W. Bush
Before Party:Republican Party (United States)
After Election:George W. Bush
After Party:Republican Party (United States)
Turnout:68.3% (of registered voters)
55.6% (of voting age population)

The 2004 United States presidential election in Oklahoma took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose seven representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

Oklahoma was won by incumbent President George W. Bush by a 31.14% margin of victory. Prior to the election, all 12 news organizations considered this a state Bush would win, or otherwise considered a safe red state. Bush won this state, every single county, and congressional district. Giving Bush 65.57% of the vote, it was the most Republican state in the south and Bush's fifth best performance in the country after Utah, Wyoming, Idaho and Nebraska.[1]

Oklahoma has been a Republican-leaning state since 1952 and a Republican stronghold since 1980. This was the first of five consecutive elections to date in which every county in the state was won by the Republican candidate.

Primaries

Campaign

Predictions

There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.[2]

!Source!Ranking
D.C. Political Report
Cook Political Report
Research 2000
Zogby International
The Washington PostWashington Post
Washington Dispatch
Washington Times
The New York Times
CNN
Newsweek
Associated Press
Rasmussen Reports

Polling

Bush won every single pre-election poll, each with a double-digit margin and with at least 53% of the vote, except for the first poll. Many polls had Bush winning with a 30% margin or even higher. The final 3 poll average had Bush leading 63% to 32%.[3]

Fundraising

Bush raised $1,194,549.[4] Kerry raised $357,038.[5]

Advertising and visits

Neither campaign advertised or visited this state during the fall campaign.[6] [7]

Analysis

By 2000, Oklahoma had long been one of the more Republican-leaning states in the South, having been one of only two Southern states to have voted for Gerald Ford over Jimmy Carter in 1976, and having been one of a handful of Southern states never to vote for Bill Clinton. In 2000, George W. Bush, then the governor of the neighboring state of Texas, carried Oklahoma with a little over 60% of the vote, making it his sixth-best state nationally and his best state in the South that year. However, Al Gore did manage to carry a cluster of traditionally Democratic rural counties in the eastern part of the state.

In 2004, Bush improved his percentage in Oklahoma by a little over 5% and carried every county in the state, the first of five consecutive elections (as of 2020) in which the Republican has swept the state's counties. He performed strongly in both the state's rural areas, and in its two main population centers, getting 64% of the vote in both Oklahoma and Tulsa Counties. Only in six counties was Kerry so much as able to hold Bush to a single-digit margin: Cherokee, Choctaw, Coal, McIntosh, Muskogee, and Okmulgee. None of these cast over 30,000 votes. However, in McIntosh County, John Kerry held Bush to a margin of just 2%, which would be the closest any Democrat since Gore came to carrying any Oklahoma county until Joe Biden came within 1.5% of carrying Oklahoma County in 2020. In addition, McIntosh County voted marginally more Democratic than the nation at-large, the last time any county in the state has voted as such as of 2022.

The third-party vote, which had amounted to 1.26% of the total state vote in 2000, disappeared in 2004, as no independent obtained ballot access in the state in 2004. Oklahoma has the toughest laws regarding third-party ballot access,[8] and 2004 was the first of three elections in a row in which only the Democrat and the Republican appeared on the ballot (with write-in votes not allowed).

Results

2004 United States presidential election in Oklahoma[9]
PartyCandidateRunning mateVotesPercentageElectoral votes
RepublicanGeorge W. Bush (incumbent)Dick Cheney (incumbent)959,79265.57%7
DemocraticJohn KerryJohn Edwards503,96634.43%0
Voter turnout (Voting age population)55.6%

By county

CountyGeorge W. Bush
Republican
John Kerry
Democratic
MarginTotal
%%%
Adair4,97165.99%2,56234.01%2,40931.98%7,533
Alfalfa2,20182.40%47017.60%1,73164.80%2,671
Atoka3,14261.75%1,94638.25%1,19623.50%5,088
Beaver2,27288.44%29711.56%1,97576.88%2,569
Beckham5,45473.85%1,93126.15%3,52347.70%7,385
Blaine3,19972.36%1,22227.64%1,97744.72%4,421
Bryan8,61559.99%5,74540.01%2,87019.98%14,360
Caddo6,49162.37%3,91637.63%2,57524.74%10,407
Canadian33,29777.42%9,71222.58%23,58554.84%43,009
Carter12,17865.32%6,46634.68%5,71230.64%18,644
Cherokee9,56952.60%8,62347.40%9465.20%18,192
Choctaw3,16854.55%2,63945.45%5299.10%5,807
Cimarron1,24287.10%18412.90%1,05874.20%1,426
Cleveland65,72065.90%34,00734.10%31,71331.80%99,727
Coal1,39653.71%1,20346.29%1937.42%2,599
Comanche21,17063.78%12,02236.22%9,14827.56%33,192
Cotton1,74265.98%89834.02%84431.96%2,640
Craig3,89460.86%2,50439.14%1,39021.72%6,398
Creek18,84865.50%9,92934.50%8,91931.00%28,777
Custer7,83973.67%2,80126.33%5,03847.34%10,640
Delaware10,01764.18%5,59135.82%4,42628.36%15,608
Dewey1,84381.87%40818.13%1,43563.74%2,251
Ellis1,68581.01%39518.99%1,29062.02%2,080
Garfield17,68576.00%5,58624.00%12,09952.00%23,271
Garvin7,61067.24%3,70732.76%3,90334.48%11,317
Grady14,13670.31%5,97029.69%8,16640.62%20,106
Grant1,95077.35%57122.65%1,37954.70%2,521
Greer1,52968.02%71931.98%81036.04%2,248
Harmon83870.30%35429.70%48440.60%1,192
Harper1,39783.90%26816.10%1,12967.80%1,665
Haskell2,94655.33%2,37844.67%56810.66%5,324
Hughes3,06657.32%2,28342.68%78314.64%5,349
Jackson7,02475.89%2,23224.11%4,79251.78%9,256
Jefferson1,54659.39%1,05740.61%48918.78%2,603
Johnston2,63560.60%1,71339.40%92221.20%4,348
Kay14,12170.33%5,95729.67%8,16440.66%20,078
Kingfisher5,63084.64%1,02215.36%4,60869.28%6,652
Kiowa2,61064.88%1,41335.12%1,19729.76%4,023
Latimer2,53556.58%1,94543.42%59013.16%4,480
LeFlore10,68361.31%6,74138.69%3,94222.62%17,424
Lincoln10,14971.52%4,04128.48%6,10843.04%14,190
Logan11,47470.21%4,86929.79%6,60540.42%16,343
Love2,29559.87%1,53840.13%75719.74%3,833
Major3,12285.32%53714.68%2,58570.64%3,659
Marshall3,36361.70%2,08838.30%1,27523.40%5,451
Mayes9,94658.93%6,93341.07%3,01317.86%16,879
McClain10,04172.85%3,74227.15%6,29945.70%13,783
McCurtain7,47266.98%3,68433.02%3,78833.96%11,156
McIntosh4,69251.11%4,48848.89%2042.22%9,180
Murray3,66563.24%2,13036.76%1,53526.48%5,795
Muskogee15,12454.58%12,58545.42%2,5399.16%27,709
Noble3,99374.94%1,33525.06%2,65849.88%5,328
Nowata2,80562.82%1,66037.18%1,14525.64%4,465
Okfuskee2,54259.32%1,74340.68%79918.64%4,285
Oklahoma174,74164.23%97,29835.77%77,44328.46%272,039
Okmulgee8,36353.17%7,36746.83%9966.34%15,730
Osage11,46758.70%8,06841.30%3,39917.40%19,535
Ottawa7,44359.41%5,08640.59%2,35718.82%12,529
Pawnee4,41263.25%2,56436.75%1,84826.50%6,976
Payne19,56065.95%10,10134.05%9,45931.90%29,661
Pittsburg11,13459.91%7,45240.09%3,68219.82%18,586
Pontotoc9,64765.13%5,16534.87%4,48230.26%14,812
Pottawatomie17,21566.59%8,63833.41%8,57733.18%25,853
Pushmataha2,86359.68%1,93440.32%92919.36%4,797
Roger Mills1,38878.42%38221.58%1,00656.84%1,770
Rogers24,97667.70%11,91832.30%13,05835.40%36,894
Seminole5,62460.66%3,64839.34%1,97621.32%9,272
Sequoyah8,86560.00%5,91040.00%2,95520.00%14,775
Stephens13,64671.22%5,51528.78%8,13142.44%19,161
Texas5,45084.29%1,01615.71%4,43468.58%6,466
Tillman2,27365.92%1,17534.08%1,09831.84%3,448
Tulsa163,45264.43%90,22035.57%73,23228.86%253,672
Wagoner19,08167.57%9,15732.43%9,92435.14%28,238
Washington16,55170.69%6,86229.31%9,68941.38%23,413
Washita3,70573.44%1,34026.56%2,36546.88%5,045
Woods3,16677.26%93222.74%2,23454.52%4,098
Woodward6,19380.94%1,45819.06%4,73561.88%7,651
Totals959,79265.57%503,96634.43%455,82631.14%1,463,758

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Bush won all 5 congressional districts, including one held by a Democrat.[10]

DistrictBushKerryRepresentative
65%35%John Sullivan
59%41%Brad Carson
Dan Boren
72%28%Frank Lucas
67%33%Tom Cole
64%36%Ernest Istook

Electors

See main article: List of 2004 United States presidential electors.

Technically the voters of Oklahoma cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Oklahoma is allocated 7 electors because it has 5 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 7 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 7 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 7 were pledged for Bush/Cheney:

  1. George Wiland
  2. Paul Hollrah
  3. Colby Schwartz
  4. Diana Gunther
  5. Ken Bartlett
  6. Donald Burdick
  7. Bob Hudspeth

The slate for the Democrats, which was not elected, consisted of George Krumme, Edwynne Krumme, Maxine Horner, Jim Hamilton, Bernice Mitchell, Betty McElderry, and Bob Lemon.[11]

See also

Notes and References

  1. Web site: 2004 Presidential Election Statistics. Dave Leip’s Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections. 2018-03-05.
  2. http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/members/2004/Pred2.htm#NW
  3. Web site: 2004 Presidential Election Polls . uselectionatlas.org.
  4. Web site: George W Bush - $374,659,453 raised, '04 election cycle, Republican Party, President.
  5. Web site: John F Kerry - $345,826,176 raised, '04 election cycle, Democrat Party, President.
  6. Web site: America votes 2004: Candidate tracker . . 2022-05-27.
  7. News: America votes 2004: Campaign ad buys . CNN . 2022-05-27 . 2021-04-22 . https://web.archive.org/web/20210422073439/http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/special/president/campaign.ads/ . live .
  8. Web site: 2012-10-09. Third-party Oklahoma voters seek easier ballot access. 2021-11-09. Oklahoman.com. en-US.
  9. Web site: Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections.
  10. Web site: Presidential Results by Congressional District, 2000-2008 – Swing State Project.
  11. Web site: PRESIDENTIAL ELECTORS . https://web.archive.org/web/20200125231659/https://www.ok.gov/elections/documents/08electr.pdf . 2020-01-25.