2020 United States presidential election in North Dakota explained

See main article: 2020 United States presidential election.

Election Name:	2020 United States presidential election in North Dakota
Country:	North Dakota
Type:	presidential
Ongoing:	no
College Voted:	yes
Previous Election:	2016 United States presidential election in North Dakota
Previous Year:	2016
Election Date:	November 3, 2020
Next Election:	2024 United States presidential election in North Dakota
Next Year:	2024
Turnout:	62.65%
Image1:	Donald Trump official portrait (cropped).jpg
Nominee1:	Donald J. Trump
Party1:	North Dakota Republican Party
Home State1:	Florida
Running Mate1:	Michael R. Pence
Electoral Vote1:	3
Popular Vote1:	235,595
Percentage1:	65.11%
Nominee2:	Joe Biden
Party2:	North Dakota Democratic–Nonpartisan League Party
Home State2:	Delaware
Running Mate2:	Kamala Harris
Electoral Vote2:	0
Popular Vote2:	114,902
Percentage2:	31.76%
President
Before Election:	Donald J. Trump
Before Party:	North Dakota Republican Party
After Election:	Joe Biden
After Party:	Democratic-NPL

The 2020 United States presidential election in North Dakota was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.^[1] North Dakota voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican nominee, incumbent President Donald J. Trump from Florida, and running mate Vice President Michael R. Pence from Indiana against Democratic nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden from Delaware, and his running mate Senator Kamala Harris of California. North Dakota has three electoral votes in the Electoral College.^[2]

Trump easily won North Dakota 65.1% to 31.8%, a margin of 33.35%, about three points down from his 36-point victory in 2016. Joe Biden won the same two counties Walter Mondale, Al Gore and Hillary Clinton won in 1984, 2000 and 2016 respectively: the majority-Native American counties of Rolette and Sioux, both of which have long been Democratic strongholds. However, Biden only came 2.7 points short of winning Cass County, which holds the state's largest city of Fargo, as compared to Clinton's 10.5-point loss in 2016.

Biden became the first Democrat to win the presidency without winning Sargent County since Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1944 and the first without Benson, Ransom, or Steele Counties since John F. Kennedy in 1960. Despite Biden's modest improvement over Hillary Clinton four years earlier, this remains the second-worst Democratic performance in the state since 1980. Trump's vote share was also the largest for any candidate in the state since 1952.

Caucuses

Democratic caucuses

The North Dakota Democratic–NPL Party held a firehouse caucus on March 10, 2020.

Republican caucuses

The North Dakota Republican Party held a non-binding firehouse caucus on March 10, 2020, with incumbent President Donald Trump running unopposed.^{[3] [4]}

The party then formally selected their 29 Republican National Convention delegates, unpledged to any particular candidate at the state party convention. The state party convention was originally scheduled for March 27–29, but due to concerns over the COVID-19 pandemic it was ultimately cancelled.^{[5] [6]}

Libertarian nominee

• Jo Jorgensen, Psychology Senior Lecturer at Clemson University

General election

Final predictions

Source	Ranking
The Cook Political Report^[7]
Inside Elections^[8]
Sabato's Crystal Ball^[9]
Politico^[10]
RCP^[11]
Niskanen^[12]
CNN^[13]
The Economist^[14]
CBS News^[15]
270towin^[16]
ABC News^[17]
NPR^[18]
NBC News^[19]
538^[20]

Polling

Graphical summary

Polls with a sample size of <100 have their sample size entries marked in red to indicate a lack of reliability.

Aggregate polls

Joe
Biden
! class="unsortable"

Donald J. Trump	Other/ Undecided	Margin
270 to Win^[21]	September 26 – October 17, 2020	October 19, 2020	38.0%		57.5%	4.5%		Trump +19.5
FiveThirtyEight^[22]	until November 2, 2020	November 3, 2020	38.7%		56.0%	5.3%		Trump +17.3
Average			38.4%		56.8%	4.8%		Trump +18.4

Polls

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin	Donald J. Trump	Joe Biden	Jo Jorgensen	Other	Undecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios^[23]	Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020	402 (LV)	± 7%		59%	39%	–	–	–
SurveyMonkey/Axios	Oct 1–28, 2020	700 (LV)	–		57%	42%	–	–	–
SurveyMonkey/Axios	Sep 1–30, 2020	249 (LV)	–		63%	34%	–	–	3%
DFM Research/North Dakota Voters First^[24]	Sep 26–29, 2020	460 (A)	± 4.6%		51%	37%	–	4%	7%
DFM Research/North Dakota Voters First^[25]	Sep 12–16, 2020	500 (LV)	± 4.5%		56%	37%	–	3%	4%
SurveyMonkey/Axios	Aug 1–31, 2020	269 (LV)	–		66%	32%	–	–	2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios	Jul 1–31, 2020	261 (LV)	–		63%	36%	–	–	1%
SurveyMonkey/Axios	Jun 8–30, 2020	88 (LV)	–		71%	28%	–	–	1%
DFM Research^[26]	Mar 3–5, 2020	400 (LV)	± 4.9%		55%	38%	–	2%	5%
DFM Research^[27]	Jan 28 – Feb 1, 2020	600 (A)	± 4.0%		59%	34%	–	2%	5%
1892 Polling/Doug Burgum^[28]	Jul 15–17, 2019	500 (LV)	± 4.4%		60%	34%	–	–	–
DFM Research^[29]	May 14–18, 2019	400 (A)	± 4.9%		54%	39%	–	2%	5%

with Donald J. Trump and Michael Bloomberg

with Donald J. Trump and Pete Buttigieg

with Donald J. Trump and Amy Klobuchar

with Donald J. Trump and Bernie Sanders

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin	Donald J. Trump (R)	Bernie Sanders (D-NPL)	Other	Undecided
DFM Research	Mar 3–5, 2020	400 (LV)	± 4.9%		58%	33%	4%	4%
DFM Research	Jan 28 – Feb 1, 2020	600 (A)	± 4.0%		61%	32%	1%	5%

with Donald J. Trump and Elizabeth Warren

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin	Donald J. Trump (R)	Elizabeth Warren (D-NPL)	Other	Undecided
DFM Research	Jan 28 – Feb 1, 2020	600 (A)	± 4.0%		62%	31%	2%	6%
Zogby Analytics^[30]	Aug 17–23, 2017	403 (LV)	± 4.9%		47%	36%	–	17%

Electoral slates

These slates of electors were nominated by each party in order to vote in the Electoral College should their candidate win the state:^[31]

Results

By county

County	Donald J. Trump Republican		Joe Biden Democratic-NPL		Various candidates Other parties		Margin		Total
		%		%		%		%
	Adams		981		77.30%		258		20.33%		30		2.37%		723		56.97%		1,269
	Barnes		3,568		64.12%		1,820		32.70%		177		3.18%		1,748		31.42%		5,565
	Benson		1,094		55.79%		822		41.92%		45		2.29%		272		13.87%		1,961
	Billings		541		85.20%		72		11.34%		22		3.46%		469		73.86%		635
	Bottineau		2,575		74.19%		821		23.65%		75		2.16%		1,754		50.54%		3,471
	Bowman		1,395		84.19%		228		13.76%		34		2.05%		1,167		70.43%		1,657
	Burke		994		86.06%		137		11.86%		24		2.08%		857		74.20%		1,155
	Burleigh		34,744		68.46%		14,348		28.27%		1,661		3.27%		20,396		40.19%		50,753
	Cass		42,619		49.53%		40,311		46.84%		3,123		3.63%		2,308		2.69%		86,053
	Cavalier		1,499		74.21%		474		23.47%		47		2.32%		1,025		50.74%		2,020
	Dickey		1,742		71.86%		608		25.08%		74		3.06%		1,134		46.78%		2,424
	Divide		904		75.21%		265		22.05%		33		2.74%		639		53.16%		1,202
	Dunn		1,951		83.45%		342		14.63%		45		1.92%		1,609		68.82%		2,338
	Eddy		854		67.72%		383		30.37%		24		1.91%		471		37.35%		1,261
	Emmons		1,738		86.51%		237		11.80%		34		1.69%		1,501		74.71%		2,009
	Foster		1,362		76.60%		373		20.98%		43		2.42%		989		55.62%		1,778
	Golden Valley		871		84.89%		137		13.35%		18		1.76%		634		71.54%		1,026
	Grand Forks		16,987		54.85%		12,880		41.59%		1,103		3.56%		4,107		13.26%		30,970
	Grant		1,145		82.91%		207		14.99%		29		2.10%		938		67.92%		1,381
	Griggs		907		72.56%		308		24.64%		35		2.80%		599		47.92%		1,250
	Hettinger		1,091		83.16%		196		14.94%		25		1.90%		895		68.22%		1,312
	Kidder		1,215		83.22%		221		15.14%		24		1.64%		994		68.08%		1,460
	LaMoure		1,645		74.13%		527		23.75%		47		2.12%		1,118		50.38%		2,219
	Logan		930		86.43%		128		11.90%		18		1.67%		802		74.53%		1,076
	McHenry		2,364		78.72%		564		18.78%		75		2.50%		1,800		59.94%		3,003
	McIntosh		1,153		79.24%		261		17.94%		41		2.82%		892		61.30%		1,455
	McKenzie		4,482		82.71%		814		15.02%		123		2.27%		3,668		67.69%		5,419
	McLean		4,198		75.83%		1,230		22.22%		108		1.95%		2,968		53.61%		5,536
	Mercer		3,856		82.48%		704		15.06%		115		2.46%		3,152		67.42%		4,675
	Morton		12,243		73.67%		3,872		23.30%		504		3.03%		8,371		50.37%		16,619
	Mountrail		2,824		67.80%		1,256		30.16%		85		2.04%		1,568		37.64%		4,165
	Nelson		1,141		64.21%		586		32.98%		50		2.81%		555		31.23%		1,777
	Oliver		918		86.12%		129		12.10%		19		1.78%		789		74.02%		1,066
	Pembina		2,460		73.85%		786		23.60%		85		2.55%		1,674		50.25%		3,331
	Pierce		1,585		74.48%		497		23.36%		46		2.16%		1,088		51.12%		2,128
	Ramsey		3,577		66.59%		1,639		30.51%		156		2.90%		1,938		36.08%		5,372
	Ransom		1,418		57.78%		945		38.51%		91		3.71%		473		19.27%		2,454
	Renville		1,065		80.74%		220		16.68%		34		2.58%		845		64.06%		1,319
	Richland		5,072		64.93%		2,510		32.13%		230		2.94%		2,562		32.80%		7,812
	Rolette		1,257		33.04%		2,482		65.25%		65		1.71%		-1,225		-32.21%		3,804
	Sargent		1,266		61.16%		738		35.65%		66		3.19%		528		25.51%		2,070
	Sheridan		688		84.73%		104		12.81%		20		2.46%		584		71.92%		812
	Sioux		258		21.75%		804		67.79%		124		10.46%		-546		-46.04%		1,186
	Slope		380		88.99%		44		10.30%		3		0.71%		336		78.69%		427
	Stark		12,110		80.47%		2,499		16.60%		441		2.93%		9,611		63.87%		15,050
	Steele		652		59.93%		392		36.03%		44		4.04%		260		23.90%		1,088
	Stutsman		6,994		70.23%		2,676		26.87%		289		2.90%		4,318		43.36%		9,959
	Towner		830		70.70%		317		27.00%		27		2.30%		513		43.70%		1,174
	Traill		2,522		60.98%		1,493		36.10%		121		2.92%		1,029		24.88%		4,136
	Walsh		3,324		69.50%		1,333		27.87%		126		2.63%		1,991		41.63%		4,783
	Ward		19,974		70.71%		7,293		25.82%		979		3.47%		12,681		44.89%		28,246
	Wells		1,893		79.74%		442		18.62%		39		1.64%		1,451		61.12%		2,374
	Williams		11,739		81.90%		2,169		15.13%		426		2.97%		9,570		66.77%		14,334
Totals	235,595	65.11%	114,902	31.76%	11,322	3.13%	120,693	33.35%	361,819

By congressional district

Due to the state's low population, only one congressional district is allocated. This district is called the At-Large district, because it covers the entire state, and thus is equivalent to the statewide election results.

Analysis

North Dakota, a rural state covered in the Midwestern Plains, is one of the most reliably Republican states in the nation. It last voted for a Democrat in 1964, when Lyndon B. Johnson carried it against the backdrop of his nationwide landslide victory. Since 1964, North Dakota has been competitive in only three elections: 1976, 1996, and 2008.

A few prime reasons why this state votes heavily for Republicans include its older, majority-White populace; agribusiness; and the state's recent oil boom. In recent presidential elections, Bakken shale oil has been a major driver of conservative success in the state, as the oil boom increasingly fuels the economy of North Dakota.^[32] The main oil boom has taken place in the western counties—perhaps Trump's main base. Trump signed executive orders on his first month in office, reviving the Keystone and Dakota Access Pipelines rejected by the Obama administration.^[33]

See also

• United States presidential elections in North Dakota
• Presidency of Joe Biden
• 2020 United States presidential election
• 2020 Democratic Party presidential primaries
• 2020 Libertarian Party presidential primaries
• 2020 Republican Party presidential primaries
• 2020 United States elections

Notes

Partisan clients

External links

• • • Web site: League of Women Voters of North Dakota . (state affiliate of the U.S. League of Women Voters)

Notes and References

1. News: US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?. https://web.archive.org/web/20180802011326/https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-elections-key-dates-midterms-2020-presidential-house-congress-senate-a8472821.html . 2018-08-02 . limited . live. Kelly. Ben. August 13, 2018. The Independent. January 3, 2019.
2. Web site: Distribution of Electoral Votes. National Archives and Records Administration. January 3, 2019.
3. Web site: 6 states will vote in Tuesday's GOP presidential primary. Trump will win all 6. Vox. March 10, 2020.
4. Web site: North Dakota Republican Delegation 2020. The Green Papers. April 4, 2020.
5. News: North Dakota GOP cancels state convention because of coronavirus threat. KFGO. March 18, 2020.
6. Web site: 2020 State Convention – North Dakota Republican Party. March 18, 2020. November 3, 2020. https://web.archive.org/web/20201103161042/https://ndgop.org/2020-state-convention/. dead.
7. Web site: 2020 POTUS Race ratings. The Cook Political Report. en. 2019-05-21.
8. Web site: POTUS Ratings Inside Elections. insideelections.com. 2019-05-21.
9. Web site: Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President. crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. 2019-05-21.
10. Web site: 2020 Election Forecast. November 19, 2019 . Politico.
11. Web site: Battle for White House. April 19, 2019 . RCP.
12. https://www.niskanencenter.org/bitecofer-post-primary-update/ 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions
13. Web site: David Chalian . Terence Burlij. Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020. 2020-06-16. CNN.
14. News: Forecasting the US elections . The Economist . July 7, 2020.
15. Web site: 2020 Election Battleground Tracker. CBS News. July 12, 2020. July 13, 2020.
16. Web site: 2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map. 270 to Win.
17. Web site: ABC News Race Ratings. CBS News. July 24, 2020. July 24, 2020.
18. Web site: 2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes. 2020-08-03. NPR.org. en.
19. Web site: Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten. 2020-08-06. NBC News. en.
20. Web site: 2020 Election Forecast . FiveThirtyEight . August 14, 2020.
21. https://www.270towin.com/2020-polls-biden-trump/north-dakota/ 270 to Win
22. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/north-dakota/ FiveThirtyEight
23. https://www.tableau.com/data-insights/us-election-2020/candidate-preference SurveyMonkey/Axios
24. Web site: DFM Research/North Dakota Voters First . October 5, 2020 . October 6, 2020 . https://web.archive.org/web/20201006112017/https://www.northdakotavotersfirst.org/body/NDVF-Poll-2-Report-Website.pdf . dead .
25. https://www.scribd.com/document/478042318/ND-Poll-DFM-Research#from_embed DFM Research/North Dakota Voters First
26. https://www.inforum.com/opinion/4982684-Port-Poll-shows-Biden-more-competitive-against-Trump-than-Sanders-in-North-Dakota-as-Democrats-prepare-to-vote DFM Research
27. https://fr.scribd.com/document/445899431/DFM-Polling-Memo DFM Research
28. https://www.sayanythingblog.com/entry/burgum-polls-himself-against-heidi-heitkamp-ahead-of-2020-campaign/ 1892 Polling/Doug Burgum
29. https://www.sayanythingblog.com/entry/poll-trump-leads-biden-among-north-dakotans-in-head-to-head-matchup-has-56-percent-favorable-rating/ DFM Research
30. https://zogbyanalytics.com/news/792-the-zogby-poll-trump-approval-trump-vs-warren-in-11-states Zogby Analytics
31. Web site: Statewide Results. North Dakota Secretary of State. December 6, 2020.
32. Web site: Cohen. Micah. 2012-10-14. An Extra Ingredient in North Dakota Politics: Oil. 2020-11-13. FiveThirtyEight. en-US.
33. News: Volcovici. Valerie. 2016-12-06. Trump supports completion of Dakota Access Pipeline. en. Reuters. 2020-11-13.