2008 United States presidential election in North Carolina explained

Election Name:2008 United States presidential election in North Carolina
Country:North Carolina
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2004 United States presidential election in North Carolina
Previous Year:2004
Next Election:2012 United States presidential election in North Carolina
Next Year:2012
Election Date:November 4, 2008
Image1:File:Obama portrait crop.jpg
Nominee1:Barack Obama
Party1:Democratic Party (United States)
Home State1:Illinois
Running Mate1:Joe Biden
Electoral Vote1:15
Popular Vote1:2,142,651
Percentage1:49.70%
Nominee2:John McCain
Party2:Republican Party (United States)
Home State2:Arizona
Running Mate2:Sarah Palin
Electoral Vote2:0
Popular Vote2:2,128,474
Percentage2:49.38%
President
Before Election:George W. Bush
Before Party:Republican Party (United States)
After Election:Barack Obama
After Party:Democratic Party (United States)

The 2008 United States presidential election in North Carolina was part of the national event on November 4, 2008, throughout all 50 states and the District of Columbia. In North Carolina, voters chose 15 representatives, or electors, to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

North Carolina was won by Democratic nominee Barack Obama with a 0.32% margin of victory. Prior to the election, most news organizations considered the state as a toss-up or a swing state. Throughout the general election, the state was heavily targeted by both campaigns. A high turnout by African American voters, bolstered by overwhelming support from younger voters were the major factors that helped deliver North Carolina's 15 electoral votes to Obama, making him the first Democratic presidential nominee to carry the state since 1976, when Jimmy Carter prevailed.

, this is the last time the Democratic nominee carried North Carolina, which would vote Republican by narrow margins in the next three elections while still being considered a swing state. This is also the last time Jackson, Hyde, and Caswell counties would vote Democratic; and the last time Nash County voted for the losing candidate nationwide.

Primaries

Campaign

Predictions

A total of 16 news organizations made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day:

!Source!Ranking
D.C. Political Report[1]
Cook Political Report[2]
The Takeaway[3]
Electoral-vote.com[4]
The Washington PostWashington Post[5]
Politico[6]
RealClearPolitics[7]
FiveThirtyEight
CQ Politics[8]
The New York Times[9]
CNN[10]
NPR
MSNBC
Fox News[11]
Associated Press[12]
Rasmussen Reports[13]

Polling

Early on, McCain won almost every single pre-election poll. However, on September 23, Rasmussen Reports showed Obama leading in a poll for the first time. He won the poll 49% to 47%. After that, polls showed the state being a complete toss-up, as both McCain and Obama were winning many polls and no candidate was taking a consistent lead in the state. Commentators attributed the drastic turnaround in the state to the influence of voter unhappiness about the financial crisis and the effectiveness of heavy advertising and organizing to get out the vote by the Obama campaign in the fall election. The final 3 polls found a tie with both candidate at 49%, which was accurate compared to the results.[14]

Fundraising

John McCain raised a total of $2,888,922 in the state. Barack Obama raised $8,569,866.[15]

Advertising and visits

Obama and his interest groups spent $15,178,674. McCain and his interest groups spent $7,137,289.[16] The Democratic ticket visited the state 12 times. The Republican ticket visited the state 8 times.[17]

Analysis

The winner was not certain even several days after the election, as thousands of provisional and absentee ballots were still being counted. However, when it became evident that McCain would need to win an improbable majority of these votes to overcome Obama's election night lead, the major news networks finally called the state's 15 electoral votes for Obama. North Carolina was the second-closest state in 2008; only in Missouri was the race closer. Situated in the increasingly Republican-dominated South, North Carolina was an anomaly by 2008. While still Democratic-leaning at the local and state level, the last Democratic presidential nominee to carry North Carolina up to that point was Jimmy Carter in 1976. Not even the Southern moderate Bill Clinton of Arkansas carried it in either of his elections (though he came very close in 1992), and in 2004, Democratic nominee John Kerry lost North Carolina by a 12-point margin despite his running mate John Edwards being a sitting Senator from the state.

Obama decided early on to campaign aggressively in the state. It paid off quickly; most polls from spring onward showed the race within single digits of difference between the candidates. He also dramatically outspent McCain in the state and had an extensive grassroots campaign of organizing to get out the vote. This was also one of the closest statewide contests of 2008, as Obama captured North Carolina just by 0.32% of the vote - a margin of only 14,177 votes out of 4.2 million statewide. Only in Missouri was the race closer, where McCain nipped Obama by less than 4,000 votes, a margin of 0.14%.

Republicans have traditionally done well in the western part of North Carolina which is a part of Appalachia, while Democrats are stronger in the urbanized east. When a Democrat wins in North Carolina, almost everything from Charlotte eastward is usually coated blue. Even when Democrats lose, they often still retain a number of counties in the industrial southeast (alongside Fayetteville), the African-American northeast, the fast-growing I-85 corridor in the Piedmont, and sometimes the western Appalachian region next to Tennessee. For example, a map of Bill Clinton's narrow 1992 loss in North Carolina shows him narrowly winning all these regions.[18]

Obama did not take the traditional Democratic path to victory. Instead, his main margins came from the cities, where he did particularly well throughout the country. While Obama won only 33 of North Carolina's 100 counties, these counties contained more than half of the state's population. Obama's victory margin came largely by running up huge majorities in the I-85 corridor, a developing megalopolis which is home to more than two-thirds of the state's population and casts almost 70% of the state's vote. The state's five largest counties--Mecklenburg (home to Charlotte) Wake (home to Raleigh), Guilford (home to Greensboro), Forsyth (home to Winston-Salem) and Durham (home to Durham)--are all located in this area, and Obama swept them all by 11 percentage points or more. He particularly attracted highly affluent and educated migrants from the Northeast, who traditionally tend to vote Democratic; as well as African Americans, Hispanics (an increasing population in the state), and college students, voting blocs who had overwhelmingly supported him during the course of the 2008 Democratic presidential primary. In 1992, Bill Clinton was able to win only Durham County by this margin; he narrowly lost Forsyth and Mecklenburg (the latter was where Obama had his biggest margin in the state). Ultimately, Obama's combined margin of 350,000 votes in these counties was too much for McCain to overcome.

McCain did well in the Charlotte suburbs, Appalachian foothills, and mountain country; he carried all but four counties west of Winston-Salem. Aside from the I-85 corridor, Obama's results were mediocre in the traditional Democratic base. He lost badly in Appalachia, mirroring the difficulties he had throughout this region. Obama won only three counties in this region, one of which was Buncombe County, home to Asheville, the largest city in the region and a destination for retirees from the North. In the Fayetteville area, he did as well as Al Gore (who had lost North Carolina by double digits).

During the same election, Democrats picked up a seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in North Carolina's 8th congressional district, where incumbent Republican Robin Hayes was ousted by Democrat Larry Kissell, a high school social studies teacher who almost toppled Hayes in 2006. Kissell received 55.38% of the vote while Hayes took in 44.62%, a 10.76-percent difference. Democrats held onto the Governor's Mansion; term-limited incumbent Democratic Governor Mike Easley was ineligible to seek a third term but Lieutenant Governor Beverly Perdue defeated Republican Pat McCrory, the incumbent mayor of Charlotte. Perdue received 50.23% of the vote while McCrory took 46.90%, with the remaining 2.86% going to Libertarian Michael Munger.

In a highly targeted U.S. Senate race, Democratic State Senator Kay Hagan defeated incumbent Republican Elizabeth Dole by a wider-than-anticipated margin - by 8.47 points. Hagan received 52.65% while Dole took 44.18%. The race received widespread attention after the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) ran its notorious "Godless" ad that accused Hagan, a Sunday school teacher, of accepting money from atheists and accused her of being an atheist. The adverse reaction resulting from the ad was considered a major factor contributing to Dole's defeat. At the state level, Democrats increased their gains in the North Carolina General Assembly, picking up five seats in the North Carolina House of Representatives and one seat in the North Carolina Senate.

According to exit polls, more than 95% of African American voters cast ballots for Obama. This played a critical role in North Carolina, as 95% of the state's registered African-American voters turned out, with Obama carrying an unprecedented 100% of African-American women, as well as younger African-Americans aged 18 to 29, according to exit polling. Comparatively, the overall turnout of voters statewide was 69%.[19]

Results

2008 United States presidential election in North Carolina
PartyCandidateRunning mateVotesPercentageElectoral votes
DemocraticBarack ObamaJoe Biden2,142,65149.70%15
RepublicanJohn McCainSarah Palin2,128,47449.38%0
LibertarianBob BarrWayne Allyn Root25,7220.60%0
Write-insWrite-ins12,2920.29%0
IndependentRalph Nader (write-in)Matt Gonzalez1,4540.03%0
GreenCynthia McKinney (write-in)Rosa Clemente1580.00%0
OthersOthers380.00%0
Totals4,310,789100.00%15
Voter turnout (voting-age population)63.0%

By county

CountyBarack Obama
Democratic		John McCain
Republican		Various candidates
Other parties		MarginTotal
%%%%
Alamance28,91844.94%34,85954.17%5760.89%−5,941−9.23%64,353
Alexander5,16729.95%11,79068.33%2971.72%−6,623−38.38%17,254
Alleghany2,02138.40%3,12459.36%1182.24%−1,103−20.96%5,263
Anson6,45660.15%4,20739.20%700.65%2,24920.95%10,733
Ashe4,87237.28%7,91660.57%2812.15%−3,044−23.29%13,069
Avery2,17827.42%5,68171.52%841.06%−3,503−44.10%7,943
Beaufort9,45441.09%13,46058.50%960.41%−4,006−17.41%23,010
Bertie6,36565.20%3,37634.58%220.22%2,98930.62%9,763
Bladen7,85350.73%7,53248.66%950.61%3212.07%15,480
Brunswick21,33140.55%30,75358.46%5240.99%−9,422−17.91%52,608
Buncombe69,71656.32%52,49442.40%1,5851.28%17,22213.92%123,795
Burke14,90139.80%22,10259.03%4401.17%−7,201−19.23%37,443
Cabarrus31,54640.45%45,92458.88%5240.67%−14,378−18.43%77,994
Caldwell12,08134.36%22,52664.08%5481.56%−10,445−29.72%35,155
Camden1,59733.13%3,14065.13%841.74%−1,543−32.00%4,821
Carteret11,13032.17%23,13166.86%3360.97%−12,001−34.69%34,597
Caswell5,54551.05%5,20847.95%1091.00%3373.10%10,862
Catawba25,65636.94%42,99361.90%8021.16%−17,337−24.96%69,451
Chatham17,86254.32%14,66844.61%3501.07%3,1949.71%32,880
Cherokee3,78530.07%8,64368.67%1581.26%−4,858−38.60%12,586
Chowan3,68849.09%3,77350.23%510.68%−85−1.14%7,512
Clay1,73431.28%3,70766.88%1021.82%−1,973−35.60%5,543
Cleveland17,36339.61%26,07859.49%3940.90%−8,715−19.88%43,835
Columbus11,07645.61%12,99453.51%2120.88%−1,918−7.90%24,282
Craven19,35243.39%24,90155.83%3450.78%−5,549−12.44%44,598
Cumberland74,69358.55%52,15140.88%7310.57%22,54217.67%127,575
Currituck3,73733.66%7,23465.16%1311.18%−3,497−31.50%11,102
Dare8,07444.74%9,74553.99%2291.27%−1,671−9.25%18,048
Davidson22,43332.71%45,41966.23%7291.06%−22,986−33.52%68,581
Davie6,17830.33%13,98168.64%2091.03%−7,803−38.31%20,368
Duplin8,95845.01%10,83454.43%1120.56%−1,876−9.42%19,904
Durham103,45675.57%32,35323.63%1,0880.80%71,10351.94%136,897
Edgecombe17,40367.12%8,44532.57%820.31%8,95834.55%25,930
Forsyth91,08554.83%73,67444.35%1,3740.82%17,41110.48%166,133
Franklin13,08549.12%13,27349.83%2811.05%−188−0.71%26,639
Gaston31,38437.18%52,50762.21%5110.61%−21,123−25.03%84,402
Gates2,83052.21%2,54746.99%430.80%2835.22%5,420
Graham1,26530.33%2,82467.71%821.96%−1,559−37.38%4,171
Granville13,07452.88%11,44746.30%2040.82%1,6276.58%24,725
Greene3,79646.85%4,27252.72%350.43%−476−5.87%8,103
Guilford142,10158.78%97,71840.42%1,9520.80%44,38318.36%241,771
Halifax16,04763.96%8,96135.71%830.33%7,08628.25%25,091
Harnett16,78541.24%23,57957.93%3410.83%−6,794−16.69%40,705
Haywood12,73045.36%14,91053.12%4271.52%−2,180−7.76%28,067
Henderson20,08238.91%30,93059.93%6021.16%−10,848−21.02%51,614
Hertford7,51370.54%3,08929.00%480.46%4,42441.54%10,650
Hoke9,22759.05%6,29340.27%1070.68%2,93418.78%15,627
Hyde1,24150.26%1,21249.09%160.65%291.17%2,469
Iredell27,31837.34%45,14861.71%6960.95%−17,830−24.37%73,162
Jackson8,76651.97%7,85446.57%2461.46%9125.40%16,866
Johnston26,79537.73%43,62261.42%6000.85%−16,827−23.69%71,017
Jones2,37845.49%2,81753.89%320.62%−439−8.40%5,227
Lee10,78445.33%12,77553.70%2290.97%−1,991−8.37%23,788
Lenoir13,37849.74%13,40149.82%1180.44%−23−0.08%26,897
Lincoln11,71332.72%23,63166.01%4541.27%−11,918−33.29%35,798
Macon6,62038.40%10,31759.85%3011.75%−3,697−21.45%17,238
Madison5,02648.42%5,19250.02%1611.56%−166−1.60%10,379
Martin6,53952.14%5,95747.50%450.36%5824.64%12,541
McDowell6,57135.74%11,53462.73%2811.53%−4,963−26.99%18,386
Mecklenburg253,95861.82%153,84837.45%3,0110.73%100,11024.37%410,817
Mitchell2,23828.52%5,49970.09%1091.39%−3,261−41.57%7,846
Montgomery4,92643.94%6,15554.91%1291.15%−1,229−10.97%11,210
Moore17,62438.88%27,31460.26%3900.86%−9,690−21.38%45,328
Nash23,09949.02%23,72850.36%2910.62%−629−1.34%47,118
New Hanover49,14548.82%50,54450.21%9760.97%−1,399−1.39%100,665
Northampton6,90365.01%3,67134.57%440.42%3,23230.44%10,618
Onslow19,49938.84%30,27860.31%4260.85%−10,779−21.47%50,203
Orange53,80671.83%20,26627.05%8381.12%33,54044.78%74,910
Pamlico2,83842.28%3,82356.96%510.76%−985−14.68%6,712
Pasquotank10,27256.50%7,77842.78%1300.72%2,49413.72%18,180
Pender9,90741.72%13,61857.34%2240.94%−3,711−15.62%23,749
Perquimans2,77242.64%3,67856.58%510.78%−906−13.94%6,501
Person8,44645.33%10,03053.83%1560.84%−1,584−8.50%18,632
Pitt40,50154.08%33,92745.31%4560.61%6,5748.77%74,884
Polk4,39641.62%5,99056.71%1761.67%−1,594−15.09%10,562
Randolph16,41428.23%40,99870.51%7351.26%−24,584−42.28%58,147
Richmond9,71350.26%9,42448.76%1900.98%2891.50%19,327
Robeson23,05856.47%17,43342.69%3430.84%5,62513.78%40,834
Rockingham17,25541.47%23,89957.43%4581.10%−6,644−15.96%41,612
Rowan23,39138.00%37,45160.84%7181.16%−14,060−22.84%61,560
Rutherford9,64133.57%18,76965.35%3101.08%−9,128−31.78%28,720
Sampson11,83645.46%14,03853.91%1640.63%−2,202−8.45%26,038
Scotland8,15157.33%6,00542.24%610.43%2,14615.09%14,217
Stanly8,87831.14%19,32967.81%2991.05%−10,451−36.67%28,506
Stokes6,87531.62%14,48866.63%3801.75%−7,613−35.01%21,743
Surry10,47535.48%18,73063.44%3201.08%−8,255−27.96%29,525
Swain2,80648.40%2,90050.02%921.58%−94−1.62%5,798
Transylvania7,27543.02%9,40155.60%2331.38%−2,126−12.58%16,909
Tyrrell93348.85%96050.26%170.99%−27−1.41%1,910
Union31,18936.23%54,12362.87%7770.90%−22,934−26.64%86,089
Vance13,16663.08%7,60636.44%990.48%5,56026.64%20,871
Wake250,89156.73%187,00142.28%4,3530.99%63,89014.45%442,245
Warren7,08669.50%3,06330.04%460.46%4,02339.46%10,195
Washington3,74858.07%2,67041.37%360.54%1,07816.70%6,454
Watauga14,55851.31%13,34447.03%4701.66%1,2144.28%28,372
Wayne22,67145.45%26,95254.03%2590.52%−4,281−8.58%49,882
Wilkes8,93430.06%20,28868.25%5021.69%−11,354−38.19%29,724
Wilson19,65252.84%17,37546.72%1640.44%2,2776.12%37,191
Yadkin4,52726.40%12,40972.37%2111.23%−7,882−45.97%17,147
Yancey4,48646.17%5,04551.92%1861.91%−559−5.75%9,717
Totals2,142,65149.70%2,128,47449.38%39,6640.92%14,1770.32%4,310,789

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Despite Barack Obama winning North Carolina, John McCain carried seven of the state's 13 congressional districts, including two districts represented by Democrats in the U.S. House of Representatives.

DistrictMcCainObamaRepresentative
37.11%62.44%G. K. Butterfield
47.29%51.91%Bob Etheridge
61.37%37.83%Walter B. Jones Jr.
36.32%62.70%David Price
60.83%37.91%Virginia Foxx
62.76%36.20%Howard Coble
52.35%46.79%Mike McIntyre
46.68%52.56%Robin Hayes (110th Congress)
Larry Kissell (111th Congress)
54.46%44.75%Sue Myrick
63.11%35.74%Patrick McHenry
52.12%46.50%Heath Shuler
28.93%70.42%Mel Watt
40.38%58.70%Brad Miller

Electors

See main article: List of 2008 United States presidential electors.

Technically the voters of North Carolina cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. North Carolina is allocated 15 electors because it has 13 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 15 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and their running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 15 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them.[20] An elector who votes for someone other than their candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 15, 2008, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 15 were pledged to Barack Obama and Joe Biden:[21]

  1. Janice Cole
  2. Louise Sewell
  3. Virginia Tillett
  4. Linda Gunter
  5. Timothy Futrelle
  6. Wayne Abraham
  7. Armin Ancis
  8. Wendy Wood
  9. Michael Cognac
  10. Dan DeHart
  11. Harley Caldwell
  12. Samuel Spencer
  13. Patricia Hawkins
  14. Sid Crawford
  15. Kara Hollingsworth

References

Notes and References

  1. Web site: 2009-01-01. D.C.'s Political Report: The complete source for campaign summaries.. 2021-08-23. https://web.archive.org/web/20090101161206/http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/Predictions.html. 2009-01-01.
  2. Web site: 2015-05-05. Presidential. 2021-08-23. https://web.archive.org/web/20150505003043/http://cookpolitical.com/presidential. 2015-05-05.
  3. Web site: 2009-04-22. Vote 2008 - The Takeaway - Track the Electoral College vote predictions. 2021-08-23. https://web.archive.org/web/20090422070127/http://vote2008.thetakeaway.org/2008/09/20/track-the-electoral-college-vote-predictions/. 2009-04-22.
  4. Web site: Electoral-vote.com: President, Senate, House Updated Daily. 2021-08-23. electoral-vote.com.
  5. Based on Takeaway
  6. Web site: POLITICO's 2008 Swing State Map - POLITICO.com. 2016-09-22. www.politico.com.
  7. Web site: RealClearPolitics - Electoral Map. dead. https://web.archive.org/web/20080605003612/http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=5. 2008-06-05.
  8. Web site: CQ Presidential Election Maps, 2008. dead. https://web.archive.org/web/20090614004022/http://innovation.cq.com/prezMap08. June 14, 2009. December 20, 2009. CQ Politics.
  9. News: Nagourney. Adam. Zeleny. Jeff. Carter. Shan. 2008-11-04. The Electoral Map: Key States. The New York Times. May 26, 2010.
  10. News: 2008-10-31. October  - 2008  - CNN Political Ticker - CNN.com Blogs. CNN. May 26, 2010. 2010-06-19. https://web.archive.org/web/20100619013250/http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/10/. dead.
  11. News: April 27, 2010. Winning The Electoral College. Fox News.
  12. Web site: roadto270. 2016-09-22. hosted.ap.org.
  13. Web site: Election 2008: Electoral College Update - Rasmussen Reports. 2016-09-22. www.rasmussenreports.com.
  14. http://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008/pollsa.php?fips=37 Election 2008 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections
  15. Web site: Presidential Campaign Finance . 2009-08-18 . https://web.archive.org/web/20090324085908/http://www.fec.gov/DisclosureSearch/MapAppState.do?stateName=NC&cand_id=P00000001 . 2009-03-24 . dead .
  16. News: Map: Campaign Ad Spending - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com . CNN . May 26, 2010.
  17. News: Map: Campaign Candidate Visits - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com . CNN . May 26, 2010.
  18. News: Election Results 2008 . New York Times . 2009-05-12 . dead . https://web.archive.org/web/20041103020223/http://usinfo.state.gov/products/pubs/history/ch13.htm . November 3, 2004 .
  19. News: How Black Democrats won North Carolina and the Election: Massive Turnout, Week of November 13–19, 2008 . 2008-11-24 . The Wilmington Journal .
  20. Web site: Electoral College . 2008-11-01 . . dead . https://web.archive.org/web/20081030041546/http://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/elections_ec.htm . October 30, 2008 .
  21. http://archives.gov/federal-register/electoral-college/2008-certificates/ascertainment-north-carolina-01.html North Carolina Certificate of Ascertainment, page 1 of 3.

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