2004 United States presidential election in New York explained

See main article: 2004 United States presidential election.

Election Name:2004 United States presidential election in New York
Country:New York
Flag Image:Flag of New York (1909–2020).svg
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2000 United States presidential election in New York
Previous Year:2000
Next Election:2008 United States presidential election in New York
Next Year:2008
Election Date:November 2, 2004
Turnout:62.44% (1.74 pp)
Image1:John F. Kerry.jpg
Nominee1:John Kerry
Party1:Democratic Party (United States)
Alliance1:Working Families
Home State1:Massachusetts
Running Mate1:John Edwards
Electoral Vote1:31
Popular Vote1:4,314,280
Percentage1:58.37%
Nominee2:George W. Bush
Party2:Republican Party (United States)
Alliance2:Conservative
Home State2:Texas
Running Mate2:Dick Cheney
Electoral Vote2:0
Popular Vote2:2,962,567
Percentage2:40.08%
President
Before Election:George W. Bush
Before Party:Republican Party (United States)
After Election:George W. Bush
After Party:Republican Party (United States)

The 2004 United States presidential election in New York took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 31 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

New York was won by Democratic nominee John Kerry by an 18.3% margin of victory. Prior to the election, all 12 news organizations considered this a state Kerry would win, or a safe blue state. The last Republican presidential nominee to have carried the state of New York was Ronald Reagan in 1984 and the last one to even be competitive was Bush's father George H. W. Bush in 1988.

As expected, Kerry won the state of New York in a landslide. Statewide elections in New York are dominated by the overwhelmingly Democratic stronghold of New York City, the most populated city in the United States where around 40% of the state's population lives. Kerry received around 75% of the vote in the city alone. New York gave Kerry his fourth largest statewide margin of victory behind Kerry's home state of Massachusetts, and neighboring Rhode Island and Vermont.

Although the state was left uncontested by both candidates, Bush did manage to significantly improve on his performance from 2000, reducing his margin of defeat from 25% to 18%; this is often attributed to increased support for Bush in the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks.

As of the 2020 United States presidential election, this is the last election in which the Republican candidate received over 40% of the vote, lost by less than a 20% margin in New York State or Westchester County, and carried Rockland and Dutchess counties. This is also the last time that any candidate won a majority of the vote in Ontario County. This also remains the only time in history that a president was elected twice without ever carrying New York.

Primaries

Campaign

Predictions

There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.[1]

!Source!Ranking
D.C. Political Report
Cook Political Report
Research 2000
Zogby International
The Washington PostWashington Post
Washington Dispatch
Washington Times
The New York Times
CNN
Newsweek
Associated Press
Rasmussen Reports

Polling

Kerry won every single pre-election poll, and all but one with a double-digit margin and with at least 49%. The final 3-poll average showed Kerry leading 55% to 38%.[2]

Fundraising

Bush raised $11,994,227.[3] Kerry raised $27,733,309.[4]

Advertising and visits

Neither campaign advertised or visited the state during the fall campaign.[5] [6]

Analysis

The voters of the five boroughs of New York City were the main force responsible for Kerry's decisive victory in the state. Kerry won New York City by an overwhelming margin, taking 1,828,015 votes to Bush's 587,534, a 74.99%-to-24.10% victory. Excluding New York City's votes, John Kerry still would have carried New York State, but by a reduced margin, taking 2,486,265 votes to Bush's 2,375,033 votes, a 51.14%-to-48.86% victory.

The New York City suburbs consist of Long Island's Nassau and Suffolk counties as well as Westchester and Rockland counties. Traditionally Republican, this area went clearly Democratic through the past few decades, with the arrival of people from New York City. However, in this area where many voters commute to Manhattan, Bush did better than expected. Although he clearly lost these counties to Gore in 2000 with 39.55% to 56.42%, or 655,665 votes to 935,456, he only lost them by a close 46.13% to 52.30% to Kerry. While Bush won 167,397 more votes than in 2000, Kerry lost 2,437. This can be mainly explained by the concerns of suburban moderate voters about terrorism, an issue about which they trusted Bush more than Kerry. Exit polls showed 49% of voters in New York trusted Bush to handle terrorism, as opposed to 42% for Kerry.[7]

Upstate New York region, including all of the counties that are not part of New York City or its suburbs, is the least liberal region of the three. Its politics are very similar to those of Ohio or Pennsylvania, both key swing states and sharing conservative rural areas. Bush expanded his margin in New York City's northern exurban counties Dutchess, Orange and Putnam from 2000. Despite this, Senator Kerry still managed a slim victory in Upstate New York, with 1,553,246 votes to 1,551,971 for Bush. This was largely due to a Democratic tidal wave in the region's four largest cities--Buffalo, Rochester, Syracuse and Albany. Kerry also ran strongly in college dominated Tompkins County and two counties with an influx of former New York City residents moving to vacation homes, Ulster County and Columbia County.

According to exit polls, Senator Kerry won both males (56%–42%) and Females (60%–40%) over the president.[8] President Bush narrowly carried white voters in New York 50% to 49%.[9] This was not enough to overcome Senator Kerry carrying African Americans 90% to 9%, Latinos 75% to 24% and Asians 72% to 27%.[10] Kerry won all age groups over President Bush, with his closest wins being 52% to 47% among those aged 45–59 and 53% to 47% among those 60 and older.[11] Kerry also won all income groups and all levels of education.[12]

Results

2004 United States presidential election in New York[13]
PartyCandidatePopular votesPercentageElectoral votes
DemocraticJohn Kerry4,180,75556.57%
Working FamiliesJohn Kerry133,5251.81%
TotalJohn F. Kerry4,314,28058.37%31
RepublicanGeorge W. Bush2,806,99337.98%
ConservativeGeorge W. Bush155,5742.10%
TotalGeorge W. Bush (incumbent)2,962,56740.08%0
IndependenceRalph Nader84,2471.14%
Peace and JusticeRalph Nader15,626 0.21%
TotalRalph Nader99,8731.35%0
LibertarianMichael Badnarik11,6070.16%0
Socialist WorkersRoger Calero2,4050.03%0
Constitution (write-in)Michael Peroutka363>0.01%0
Green (write-in)David Cobb138>0.01%0
Independent (write-in)John J. Kennedy8>0.01%0
Independent (write-in)Michael Halpin4>0.01%0
Socialist EqualityBill Van Auken4>0.01%0
Totals7,391,036100%31
Voter turnout:62.44%

New York City results

2004 presidential election in New York CityManhattanThe BronxBrooklynQueensStaten IslandTotal
Democratic-
Working Families		John F. Kerry526,765283,994514,973433,83568,4481,828,01574.97%
82.06%82.80%74.86%71.66%42.74%
Republican-
Conservative		George W. Bush107,40556,701167,149165,95490,325587,53424.10%
16.73%16.53%24.30%27.41%56.40%
Independence-
Peace and Justice		Ralph Nader6,0231,9734,8594,5351,19018,5800.76%
0.94%0.58%0.71%0.75%0.74%
LibertarianMichael Badnarik1,2761405705611342,0070.11%
0.20%0.04%0.08%0.09%0.08%
Socialist WorkersRoger Calero278121229177298340.03%
0.04%0.04%0.03%0.03%0.02%
Others20450104330173710.02%
0.03%0.01%0.02%0.05%0.01%
TOTAL641,951342,979687,884605,392160,1432,438,349100.00%

By congressional district

Kerry won 20 of 29 congressional districts. Both candidates won a district held by the other party.[14]

DistrictBushKerryRepresentative
49%49%Tim Bishop
45%53%Steve Israel
52%47%Peter T. King
44%55%Carolyn McCarthy
36%63%Gary Ackerman
15%84%Gregory W. Meeks
25%74%Joseph Crowley
27%72%Jerrold Nadler
44%56%Anthony D. Weiner
13%86%Edolphus Towns
13%86%Major Owens
19%80%Nydia Velasquez
55%45%Vito Fossella
25%75%Carolyn B. Maloney
9%90%Charlie Rangel
10%89%Jose Serrano
33%67%Eliot L. Engel
42%58%Nita Lowey
54%45%Sue W. Kelly
54%46%John E. Sweeney
43%55%Michael R. McNulty
45%54%Maurice Hinchey
51%47%John M. McHugh
53%47%Sherwood Boehlert
48%50%James T. Walsh
55%43%Thomas M. Reynolds
45%53%Jack Quinn
Brian Higgins
36%63%Louise Slaughter
56%42%Amo Houghton
Randy Kuhl

By county

CountyJohn Kerry
Democratic		George W. Bush
Republican		Various candidates
Other parties		MarginTotal votes cast
%%%%
Albany89,32360.68%54,87237.28%3,0042.04%34,45123.40%147,199
Allegany6,56634.07%12,31063.88%3942.05%−5,744−29.81%19,270
Bronx283,99482.80%56,70116.53%2,2840.67%227,29366.27%342,979
Broome46,28150.37%43,56847.41%2,0412.22%2,7132.96%91,890
Cattaraugus13,51439.44%20,05158.52%7012.04%−6,537−19.08%34,266
Cayuga17,53448.64%17,74349.22%7752.15%−209−0.58%36,052
Chautauqua27,25744.72%32,43453.22%1,2532.06%−5,177−8.50%60,944
Chemung17,08043.71%21,32154.56%6741.72%−4,241−10.85%39,075
Chenango9,27743.47%11,58254.27%4822.26%−2,305−10.80%21,341
Clinton17,62452.24%15,33045.44%7822.32%2,2946.80%33,736
Columbia15,92951.21%14,45746.48%7172.31%1,4724.73%31,103
Cortland10,67046.88%11,61351.02%4772.09%−943−4.14%22,760
Delaware8,72441.22%11,95856.49%4852.29%−3,234−15.27%21,167
Dutchess58,23247.01%63,37251.16%2,2771.84%−5,140−4.15%123,881
Erie251,09056.41%184,42341.43%9,6252.17%66,66714.98%445,138
Essex8,76845.95%9,86951.72%4452.34%−1,101−5.77%19,082
Franklin9,54352.10%8,38345.77%3902.13%1,1606.33%18,316
Fulton9,20241.42%12,57056.58%4431.99%−3,368−15.16%22,215
Genesee10,33137.46%16,72560.64%5241.90%−6,394−23.18%27,580
Greene8,93339.88%12,99658.02%4692.10%−4,063−18.14%22,398
Hamilton1,14530.99%2,47566.98%752.03%−1,330−35.99%3,695
Herkimer11,67541.24%16,02456.60%6112.15%−4,349−15.36%28,310
Jefferson16,86043.45%21,23154.72%7091.83%−4,371−11.27%38,800
Kings514,97374.86%167,14924.30%5,7620.84%347,82450.56%687,884
Lewis4,54639.89%6,62458.12%2271.99%−2,078−18.23%11,397
Livingston11,50438.41%17,72959.20%7152.39%−6,225−20.79%29,948
Madison13,12143.32%16,53754.60%6292.08%−3,416−11.28%30,287
Monroe173,49750.57%163,54547.67%6,0221.76%9,9522.90%343,064
Montgomery9,44944.53%11,33853.43%4342.04%−1,889−8.90%21,221
Nassau323,07052.25%288,35546.63%6,9181.12%34,7155.62%618,343
New York526,76582.06%107,40516.73%7,7811.21%419,36065.33%641,951
Niagara47,60249.29%47,11148.78%1,8671.93%4910.51%96,580
Oneida40,79242.77%52,39254.93%2,1972.30%−11,600−12.16%95,381
Onondaga116,38154.23%94,00643.80%4,2381.98%22,37510.43%214,625
Ontario21,16642.24%27,99955.88%9451.89%−6,833−13.64%50,110
Orange63,39443.82%79,08954.67%2,1901.51%−15,695−10.85%144,673
Orleans5,95935.95%10,31762.24%3011.81%−4,358−26.29%16,577
Oswego24,13346.76%26,32551.01%1,1492.23%−2,192−4.25%51,607
Otsego12,72347.74%13,34250.06%5872.20%−619−2.32%26,652
Putnam19,57542.03%26,35656.59%6401.37%−6,781−14.56%46,571
Queens433,83571.66%165,95427.41%5,6030.93%267,88144.25%605,392
Rensselaer36,07549.75%34,73447.90%1,7052.35%1,3411.85%72,514
Richmond68,44842.74%90,32556.40%1,3700.85%−21,877−13.66%160,143
Rockland64,19148.91%65,13049.63%1,9101.46%−939−0.72%131,231
Saratoga48,73045.60%56,15852.55%1,9851.86%−7,428−6.95%106,873
Schenectady35,97151.78%32,06646.16%1,4322.06%3,9055.62%69,469
Schoharie5,63038.67%8,59159.01%3382.33%−2,961−20.34%14,559
Schuyler3,44540.10%4,96057.74%1852.16%−1,515−17.64%8,590
Seneca6,97945.54%7,98152.08%3652.38%−1,002−6.54%15,325
St. Lawrence22,85754.73%18,02943.17%8752.09%4,82811.56%41,761
Steuben14,52334.35%26,98063.81%7811.85%−12,457−29.46%42,284
Suffolk315,90949.46%309,94948.53%12,8542.01%5,9600.93%638,712
Sullivan15,03448.55%15,31949.47%6131.98%−285−0.92%30,966
Tioga9,69440.56%13,76257.58%4461.87%−4,068−17.02%23,902
Tompkins27,22964.19%13,99432.99%1,1982.82%13,23531.20%42,421
Ulster47,60254.27%37,82143.12%2,2892.61%9,78111.15%87,712
Warren13,40543.16%16,96954.63%6852.20%−3,564−11.47%31,059
Washington10,62442.32%13,82755.08%6522.59%−3,203−12.76%25,103
Wayne15,70938.11%24,70959.94%8021.94%−9,000−21.83%41,220
Westchester229,84958.08%159,62840.33%6,2931.59%70,22117.75%395,770
Wyoming6,13433.76%11,74564.64%2901.59%−5,611−30.88%18,169
Yates4,20539.26%6,30958.90%1971.83%−2,104−19.64%10,711
Totals4,314,28058.36%2,962,56740.08%115,1071.56%1,351,71318.28%7,391,954

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Electors

See main article: List of 2004 United States presidential electors.

NY voters cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. New York has 31 electors because it has 29 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 31 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 31 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia meet in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from New York. All were pledged to and voted for Kerry/Edwards.

  1. Joseph Ashton
  2. Bill De Blasio
  3. Molly Clifford
  4. Lorraine Cortes-Vazquez
  5. Inez Dickens
  6. Danny Donahue
  7. Herman D. Farrell
  8. C. Virginia Fields
  9. Emily Giske
  10. Bea Gonzalez
  11. Alan Hevesi
  12. Frank Hoare
  13. Virginia Kee
  14. Peggy Kerry
  15. Denise King
  16. Len Lenihan
  17. Bertha Lewis
  18. Alan Lubin
  19. Thomas J. Manton
  20. Dennis Mehiel
  21. June O'Neill
  22. David Paterson
  23. Jose Rivera
  24. Rich Schaffer
  25. Chung Seto
  26. Sheldon Silver
  27. Eliot Spitzer
  28. Antoine Thompson
  29. Paul Tokasz
  30. Bill Wood
  31. Robert Zimmerman

See also

Notes and References

  1. Web site: Archived copy . dcpoliticalreport.com . January 17, 2022 . https://web.archive.org/web/20101121204958/http://dcpoliticalreport.com/members/2004/Pred2.htm . November 21, 2010 . dead.
  2. Web site: Election 2004 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections. Uselectionatlas.org. October 8, 2014.
  3. Web site: George W Bush - $374,659,453 raised, '04 election cycle, Republican Party, President. Campaignmoney.com. October 8, 2014.
  4. Web site: John F Kerry - $345,826,176 raised, '04 election cycle, Democratic Party, President. Campaignmoney.com. October 8, 2014.
  5. News: CNN.com Specials. Cnn.com. October 8, 2014.
  6. News: CNN.com Specials. Cnn.com. October 8, 2014.
  7. Web site: CNN.com Election 2004.
  8. Web site: CNN.com Election 2004.
  9. Web site: CNN.com Election 2004.
  10. Web site: CNN.com Election 2004.
  11. Web site: CNN.com Election 2004.
  12. Web site: CNN.com Election 2004.
  13. Web site: Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections 2004 - New York. Uselectionatlas.org. 2013-01-07.
  14. Web site: Swing State Project. Swingstateproject.com. October 8, 2014.

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