2008 United States presidential election in Nebraska explained

Election Name:2008 United States presidential election in Nebraska
Country:Nebraska
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2004 United States presidential election in Nebraska
Previous Year:2004
Next Election:2012 United States presidential election in Nebraska
Next Year:2012
Election Date:November 4, 2008
Image1:File:John McCain 2009 Official.jpg
Nominee1:John McCain
Party1:Republican Party (United States)
Home State1:Arizona
Running Mate1:Sarah Palin
Electoral Vote1:4
Popular Vote1:452,979
Percentage1:56.53%
Nominee2:Barack Obama
Party2:Democratic Party (United States)
Home State2:Illinois
Running Mate2:Joe Biden
Electoral Vote2:1
Popular Vote2:333,319
Percentage2:41.60%
President
Before Election:George W. Bush
Before Party:Republican Party (United States)
After Election:Barack Obama
After Party:Democratic Party (United States)

The 2008 United States presidential election in Nebraska took place on November 4, 2008, as part of the 2008 United States presidential election. Voters chose five electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president. However, Nebraska is one of the two states of the U.S. that, instead of giving all of its electors to the winner based on its statewide results, allocates just two electoral votes to the winner of the statewide popular vote. The other three electors vote based on their individual congressional district results.

Nebraska, statewide, was not a swing state in 2008. Located in the Great Plains of the United States, it is one of the most staunchly Republican states in the country. While some hypothetical general election match-up polls between Republican John McCain and Democrat Barack Obama showed the race to be seemingly close, they were largely regarded as outliers as more polls released showed McCain leading in double digits. McCain wound up carrying the popular vote in Nebraska by 14.93 points, taking in 56.53% of the total statewide vote. However, Obama narrowly defeated McCain in Nebraska's 2nd congressional district, which contains Omaha and the surrounding areas.

Due to Nebraska's system of allocating electoral votes to winners of Congressional Districts, Obama was able to win one electoral vote while John McCain received the state's other four electoral votes. On top of this, his 41.6% of the statewide popular vote is the highest a Democratic presidential candidate has won in Nebraska since Lyndon B. Johnson carried the state in his 1964 landslide. This was the first election ever that Nebraska split its electoral votes, and the first since 1964 that a Democrat won an electoral vote from the state. As of 2020, this remains the last time that a Democrat has won more than 40% of the vote in Nebraska.

Primaries & caucuses

Campaign

Predictions

There were 16 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day:

!Source!Ranking
D.C. Political Report[1]
Cook Political Report[2]
The Takeaway[3]
Electoral-vote.com[4]
The Washington PostWashington Post[5]
Politico[6]
RealClearPolitics[7]
FiveThirtyEight
CQ Politics[8]
The New York Times[9]
CNN[10]
NPR
MSNBC
Fox News[11]
Associated Press[12]
Rasmussen Reports[13]

Polling

McCain led in every single pre-election poll. Since May, he led in each poll by a double-digit margin of victory and each with at least 52% of the vote.[14]

Fundraising

John McCain raised a total of $678,059 in the state, while Barack Obama raised $864,393.[15]

Advertising and visits

Obama spent $55,807 while McCain and the Republican Trust PAC spent a total of just $1,225.[16] Both Obama and McCain visited the state once. Obama held a downtown rally at Omaha[17] and McCain traveled to both Omaha and Ashland. Palin also visited Omaha once.[18]

Campaign in Omaha

Nebraska has two electoral votes that go to the winner of the popular vote in the state, while the other three are split based on whichever candidate wins the popular vote in each of Nebraska's three congressional districts, all of which have trended Republican in the past elections. However Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District, based in the city of Omaha, is significantly less conservative.

The second CD of Nebraska was actually considered as a battleground area by some, leading the Obama campaign to open a single campaign office in Omaha with 15 staff members to cover the congressional district in September 2008.[19] More than 900 people attended the opening of those offices. Democratic Mayor Mike Fahey of Omaha said that he would do whatever it takes to deliver the electoral vote tied to the 2nd Congressional District to Obama, and the Obama Campaign considered Nebraska's 2nd congressional district "in play".[20] Former Democratic U.S. Senator Bob Kerrey and then senior U.S. Senator Ben Nelson campaigned in the city for Obama.[21]

Analysis

Nebraska, part of the conservative Great Plains region, is one of the most Republican states in the nation. It has only gone Democratic in a presidential election seven times since statehood. Continuing on that trend, McCain won Nebraska by nearly 15 points. Obama was only able to win four counties: Douglas County, which contains Omaha; Lancaster County, which contains the state capital of Lincoln and the University of Nebraska; Saline County; and Thurston County, which contains a Native American reservation and was the only county to be won by John Kerry in 2004. No Democratic presidential nominee since Lyndon B. Johnson's landslide 1964 victory has ever won more than four counties in Nebraska.[22] In 2008, McCain won Nebraska's 1st Congressional District and Nebraska's 3rd Congressional District by fairly safe margins,[23] along with the state as a whole, but Obama managed to carry Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District, based in Omaha, by a slim margin of 1,260 votes, resulting in one of Nebraska's five electoral votes being awarded to Obama.[24] This was a particularly notable win, because with Nebraska's split electoral vote system Obama became the first Democratic presidential candidate to win an electoral vote from Nebraska since 1964.[25]

Obama did particularly well in the state's two most populated counties, Douglas and Lancaster. Obama was able to carve out small victories and became the first Democrat to carry those counties since 1964.[26], this is the last election in which Saline County voted Democratic.

During the same election, Republicans held the open U.S. Senate seat vacated by Republican Chuck Hagel who retired. Former Republican Governor Mike Johanns easily defeated Democrat Scott Kleeb, a rancher, by 17.46 points. Johanns received 57.52% of the total vote while Kleeb took in 40.06%. At the state level, a candidate known to be a Republican picked up a seat in the nonpartisan and unicameral Nebraska Legislature in 2008.

Results

Statewide

2008 United States presidential election in Nebraska
PartyCandidateRunning mateVotesPercentageElectoral votes
RepublicanJohn McCainSarah Palin452,97956.53%4
DemocraticBarack ObamaJoe Biden333,31941.60%1
IndependentRalph NaderMatt Gonzalez5,4060.67%0
ConstitutionDarrell Castle2,9720.37%0
Write-insWrite-in candidates2,8370.35%0
LibertarianBob BarrWayne Allyn Root2,7400.34%0
GreenRosa Clemente1,0280.13%0
Totals801,281100.00%5
Voter turnoutn/a—

By county

CountyJohn McCain
Republican		Barack Obama
Democratic		Various candidates
Other parties		MarginTotal
%%%%
Adams8,25262.47%4,68535.47%2732.06%3,56727.00%13,210
Antelope2,38374.82%75723.77%451.41%1,62651.05%3,185
Arthur21782.51%3914.83%72.66%17867.68%263
Banner34883.65%6214.90%61.45%28668.75%416
Blaine26684.18%4313.61%72.21%22370.57%316
Boone2,04272.00%74226.16%521.84%1,30045.84%2,836
Box Butte2,93258.89%1,88637.88%1613.23%1,04621.01%4,979
Boyd83975.59%25022.52%211.89%58953.07%1,110
Brown1,20877.09%31119.85%483.06%89757.24%1,567
Buffalo13,09767.88%5,86730.41%3291.71%7,23037.47%19,293
Burt1,90756.30%1,41341.72%671.98%49414.58%3,387
Butler2,55766.61%1,19031.00%922.39%1,36735.61%3,839
Cass7,12058.74%4,75339.21%2492.05%2,36719.53%12,122
Cedar2,91269.77%1,19028.51%721.72%1,72241.26%4,174
Chase1,47780.10%34118.49%261.41%1,13661.61%1,844
Cherry2,36077.15%59919.58%1003.27%1,76157.57%3,059
Cheyenne3,57273.82%1,17324.24%941.94%2,39949.58%4,839
Clay2,17771.78%78025.72%762.50%1,39746.06%3,033
Colfax2,01863.00%1,12535.12%601.88%89327.88%3,203
Cuming2,73266.85%1,27431.17%811.98%1,45835.68%4,087
Custer4,30177.11%1,19221.37%851.52%3,10955.74%5,578
Dakota3,29251.47%2,99446.81%1101.72%2984.66%6,396
Dawes2,37662.94%1,28534.04%1143.02%1,09128.90%3,775
Dawson5,46068.37%2,39930.04%1271.59%3,06138.33%7,986
Deuel73273.72%24324.47%181.81%48949.25%993
Dixon1,78563.89%94633.86%632.25%83930.03%2,794
Dodge8,55755.03%6,68943.02%3041.95%1,86812.01%15,550
Douglas106,29146.89%116,81051.53%3,6001.58%-10,519-4.64%226,701
Dundy78376.84%21821.39%181.77%56555.45%1,019
Fillmore1,91364.91%96232.64%722.45%95132.27%2,947
Franklin1,07969.52%44228.48%312.00%63741.04%1,552
Frontier1,03473.65%34924.86%211.49%68548.79%1,404
Furnas1,72574.10%55623.88%472.02%1,16950.22%2,328
Gage5,43553.49%4,47344.03%2522.48%9629.46%10,160
Garden84474.17%28324.87%110.96%56149.30%1,138
Garfield80077.67%21220.58%181.75%58857.09%1,030
Gosper77674.05%26024.81%121.14%51649.24%1,048
Grant31886.65%4111.17%82.18%27775.48%367
Greeley71559.63%45838.20%262.17%25721.43%1,199
Hall12,97761.01%7,85536.93%4392.06%5,12224.08%21,271
Hamilton3,38970.62%1,33227.76%781.62%2,05742.86%4,799
Harlan1,32975.25%40222.76%351.99%92752.49%1,766
Hayes46183.36%8515.37%71.27%37667.99%553
Hitchcock1,00172.59%34625.09%322.32%65547.50%1,379
Holt3,74675.31%1,08921.89%1392.80%2,65753.42%4,974
Hooker35581.05%7517.12%81.83%28063.93%438
Howard1,84761.65%1,08336.15%662.20%76425.50%2,996
Jefferson2,10356.88%1,52041.11%742.01%58315.77%3,697
Johnson1,14254.12%91443.32%542.56%22810.80%2,110
Kearney2,22470.60%87627.81%501.59%1,34842.79%3,150
Keith2,94274.14%97424.55%521.31%1,96849.59%3,968
Keya Paha40976.74%11521.58%91.68%29455.16%533
Kimball1,34674.32%43924.24%261.44%90750.08%1,811
Knox2,72866.80%1,25530.73%1012.47%1,47336.07%4,084
Lancaster59,39846.59%65,73451.56%2,3581.85%-6,336-4.97%127,490
Lincoln10,81766.46%5,04631.00%4142.54%5,77135.46%16,277
Logan32778.61%8119.47%81.92%24659.14%416
Loup30276.84%8621.88%51.28%21654.96%393
Madison9,65568.74%4,14229.49%2481.77%5,51339.25%14,045
McPherson24081.91%4515.36%82.73%19566.55%293
Merrick2,37569.22%98628.74%702.04%1,38940.48%3,431
Morrill1,72573.37%55723.69%692.94%1,16849.68%2,351
Nance1,11665.38%54932.16%422.46%56733.22%1,707
Nemaha2,13461.43%1,24035.69%1002.88%89425.74%3,474
Nuckolls1,49867.45%65729.58%662.97%84137.87%2,221
Otoe4,03356.87%2,91541.10%1442.03%1,11815.77%7,092
Pawnee85962.07%48334.90%423.03%37627.17%1,384
Perkins1,09276.90%31021.83%181.27%78255.07%1,420
Phelps3,36075.12%1,05023.47%631.41%2,31051.65%4,473
Pierce2,38573.93%78324.27%581.80%1,60249.66%3,226
Platte9,37369.84%3,79628.29%2511.87%5,57741.55%13,420
Polk1,82271.65%66826.27%532.08%1,15445.38%2,543
Red Willow3,73574.05%1,21624.11%931.84%2,51949.94%5,044
Richardson2,34259.02%1,51338.13%1132.85%82920.89%3,968
Rock64079.90%13917.35%222.75%50162.55%801
Saline2,43446.35%2,67450.92%1432.73%-240-4.57%5,251
Sarpy38,81657.06%28,01041.18%1,1961.76%10,80615.88%68,022
Saunders6,18860.60%3,76736.89%2572.51%2,42123.71%10,212
Scotts Bluff9,70865.91%4,74532.21%2771.88%4,96333.70%14,730
Seward4,64761.72%2,70335.90%1792.38%1,94425.82%7,529
Sheridan1,94178.84%45418.44%672.72%1,48760.40%2,462
Sherman95060.43%58537.21%372.36%36523.22%1,572
Sioux60382.38%11715.98%121.64%48666.40%732
Stanton1,78171.38%66426.61%502.01%1,11744.77%2,495
Thayer1,74965.78%86032.34%501.88%88933.44%2,659
Thomas33184.87%5113.08%82.05%28071.79%390
Thurston97245.72%1,12052.68%341.60%-148-6.96%2,126
Valley1,65768.39%70629.14%602.47%95139.25%2,423
Washington6,42562.26%3,71135.96%1841.78%2,71426.30%10,320
Wayne2,50365.73%1,24932.80%561.47%1,25432.93%3,808
Webster1,23367.86%55230.38%321.76%68137.48%1,817
Wheeler33475.91%9621.82%102.27%23854.09%440
York4,84873.81%1,60724.47%1131.72%3,24149.34%6,568
Totals452,97956.53%333,31941.60%14,9831.87%119,66014.93%801,281

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Congressional district

John McCain carried two of the state's three congressional districts, while Barack Obama carried one congressional district held by a Republican.

DistrictMcCainObamaRepresentative
54.10%44.33%Jeff Fortenberry
48.75%49.97%Lee Terry
68.64%29.63%Adrian Smith

Electors

See main article: List of 2008 United States presidential electors.

Technically the voters of Nebraska cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Nebraska is allocated 5 electors because it has 3 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 5 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded 2 electoral votes, and the other 3 are allocated via the individual results of the congressional districts. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them.[27] An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 15, 2008, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the 5 members of the Electoral College from the state. 4 of the electors were pledged to John McCain and Sarah Palin; 2 at large, 1 for each of the 1st and 3rd Congressional districts. 1 was pledged to Barack Obama and Joe Biden:

See also

Notes and References

  1. Web site: 2009-01-01. D.C.'s Political Report: The complete source for campaign summaries.. 2022-10-23. https://web.archive.org/web/20090101161206/http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/Predictions.html. 2009-01-01.
  2. Web site: 2015-05-05. Presidential. 2021-08-23. https://web.archive.org/web/20150505003043/http://cookpolitical.com/presidential. 2015-05-05.
  3. Web site: 2009-04-22. Vote 2008 - The Takeaway - Track the Electoral College vote predictions. 2021-08-23. https://web.archive.org/web/20090422070127/http://vote2008.thetakeaway.org/2008/09/20/track-the-electoral-college-vote-predictions/. 2009-04-22.
  4. Web site: Electoral-vote.com: President, Senate, House Updated Daily. 2021-08-23. electoral-vote.com.
  5. Based on Takeaway
  6. Web site: POLITICO's 2008 Swing State Map - POLITICO.com. 2016-09-22. www.politico.com.
  7. Web site: RealClearPolitics - Electoral Map. dead. https://web.archive.org/web/20080605003612/http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=5. 2008-06-05.
  8. Web site: CQ Presidential Election Maps, 2008. dead. https://web.archive.org/web/20090614004022/http://innovation.cq.com/prezMap08. June 14, 2009. December 20, 2009. CQ Politics.
  9. News: Nagourney. Adam. Zeleny. Jeff. Carter. Shan. 2008-11-04. The Electoral Map: Key States. The New York Times. May 26, 2010.
  10. News: 2008-10-31. October  - 2008  - CNN Political Ticker - CNN.com Blogs. CNN. May 26, 2010. June 19, 2010. https://web.archive.org/web/20100619013250/http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/10/. dead.
  11. News: April 27, 2010. Winning The Electoral College. Fox News.
  12. Web site: roadto270. 2016-09-22. hosted.ap.org.
  13. Web site: Election 2008: Electoral College Update - Rasmussen Reports. 2016-09-22. www.rasmussenreports.com.
  14. http://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008/pollsa.php?fips=31 Election 2008 Polls – Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections
  15. Web site: Presidential Campaign Finance . August 19, 2009 . https://web.archive.org/web/20090324090027/http://www.fec.gov/DisclosureSearch/MapAppState.do?stateName=NE&cand_id=P00000001 . March 24, 2009 . dead .
  16. News: Map: Campaign Ad Spending - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com . CNN . May 26, 2010.
  17. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2RGemeCoepU YouTube – Barack Obama Omaha Rally
  18. News: Map: Campaign Candidate Visits - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com . CNN . May 26, 2010.
  19. http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/09/10/politics/main4436261.shtml?source=RSSattr=Politics_4436261 "Obama Camp Targets Omaha: Obama Makes A Play In Nebraska, One Of Only Two States That Can Split It's Electoral Votes"
  20. Bratton, A.J. "Hundreds visit Obama's Omaha headquarters", Associated Press. September 10, 2008. Retrieved 9/27/08.
  21. http://www.ketv.com/politics/17458608/detail.html "Senators To Campaign In Omaha For Obama"
  22. Web site: Leip. David. Presidential General Election Map Comparison Nebraska. April 19, 2009.
  23. News: CNN Election Center 2008 – Nebraska Results. November 23, 2008.
  24. Web site: Omaha.com Elections Section . https://archive.today/20081110070009/http://www.omaha.com/index.php?u_page=2835&u_sid=10481441 . dead . November 10, 2008 . November 23, 2008 .
  25. https://web.archive.org/web/20081110070009/http://www.omaha.com/index.php?u_page=2835&u_sid=10481441 "Obama wins electoral votes in Omaha"
  26. News: Election Results 2008 . New York Times . April 19, 2009 . dead . https://web.archive.org/web/20041103020223/http://usinfo.state.gov/products/pubs/history/ch13.htm . November 3, 2004 .
  27. Web site: Electoral College . November 1, 2008 . . dead . https://web.archive.org/web/20081030041546/http://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/elections_ec.htm . October 30, 2008 .
  28. https://www.archives.gov/federal-register/electoral-college/2008-certificates/ascertainment-nebraska-03.html Nebraska Certificate of Ascertainment, page 1 of 3.
  29. https://archive.today/20120906144924/http://www.omaha.com/index.php?u_page=2798&u_sid=10515098 Elector casts first Nebraska Democratic vote in 44 years

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