2008 United States presidential election in Michigan explained

Election Name:2008 United States presidential election in Michigan
Country:Michigan
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2004 United States presidential election in Michigan
Previous Year:2004
Next Election:2012 United States presidential election in Michigan
Next Year:2012
Turnout:66.2% [1]
Election Date:November 4, 2008
Image1:Obama portrait crop.jpg
Nominee1:Barack Obama
Party1:Democratic Party (United States)
Home State1:Illinois
Running Mate1:Joe Biden
Electoral Vote1:17
Popular Vote1:2,867,680
Percentage1:57.33%
Nominee2:John McCain
Party2:Republican Party (United States)
Home State2:Arizona
Running Mate2:Sarah Palin
Electoral Vote2:0
Popular Vote2:2,044,405
Percentage2:40.89%

The 2008 United States presidential election in Michigan took place on November 4, 2008. It was part of the 2008 United States presidential election which happened throughout all 50 states and D.C. Voters chose 17 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

Michigan was won by Democratic nominee Barack Obama by a 16.4% margin of victory. Early on, the state was heavily targeted as a swing state. However, Obama started to pull away in the polls during the last few months due to the worsening of the state's economy, causing McCain to stop campaigning there. Prior to the election, all 17 news organizations considered this a state Obama would win, or otherwise considered as a safe blue state. Michigan had leaned Democratic in recent decades, as it voted for the Democratic presidential nominee in every election since 1992. In the end, Obama won Michigan by a larger-than-expected margin of victory: 57.33% - 40.89%. With Obama winning the state by 823,275 votes, this is the highest Democratic margin of victory in Michigan since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964, and the highest margin of victory for any presidential candidate since Ronald Reagan's landslide reelection in 1984. As of 2020, this is the last time a Democrat won the majority of Michigan's counties in a presidential election as Obama won 46 out of 83. Obama's 2,867,680 votes are the most received by a presidential candidate in the state's history.

Primaries

Campaign

Predictions

There were 16 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day:

!Source!Ranking
D.C. Political Report[2]
Cook Political Report[3]
The Takeaway[4]
Electoral-vote.com[5]
The Washington PostWashington Post[6]
Politico[7]
RealClearPolitics[8]
FiveThirtyEight
CQ Politics[9]
The New York Times[10]
CNN[11]
NPR
MSNBC
Fox News[12]
Associated Press[13]
Rasmussen Reports[14]

Polling

Very early on, polling was tight as Obama was having a difficult time getting support from the pessimistic state. Since September 21, Obama swept all the polls taken from the state. The final 3 polls averaged Obama leading 54% to 40%.[15]

Fundraising

John McCain raised a total of $4,330,872 in the state. Barack Obama raised $7,299,275.[16]

Advertising and visits

Obama and his interest groups spent $12,995,614. McCain and his interest group spent $13,332,086.[17] The Democratic ticket visited the state 10 times to McCain's 9 times.[18]

Analysis

Michigan had not supported a Republican for president since 1988, and would not do so again until 2016. However, the state's 17 electoral votes had been continually a prime target for Republicans, and the Democratic margin of victory incrementally decreased from 1996 to 2004. In 2008, Republican presidential nominee John McCain put an early effort into winning Michigan, hoping to convert blue-collar voters disaffected by Obama's unfamiliarity as a liberal African-American from Chicago. Macomb County, a populous blue-collar suburb of Detroit, was a large target.

A major problem for the Obama campaign was the 2008 Michigan Democratic presidential primary. Obama removed his name from the ballot after state officials moved up the primary in violation of party rules. As a result, Hillary Rodham Clinton won the state with 55%. This led to the McCain campaign focusing heavily on winning Michigan in the general election. In May 2008, McCain was leading in a Rasmussen poll with 45% to 44%.[19] After the September financial crisis, however, McCain's general campaign fell into trouble. Polls showed Michigan, a state especially affected by the economy, turning away from McCain. Voters blamed Republicans for the crisis. In early October, with polls showing him falling further behind Obama, McCain pulled out of the state, essentially ceding it to Obama.[20] This was widely publicized, and more than likely contributed to Obama's landslide victory.

On Election Day, Barack Obama won by a double-digit margin of 16%. The state was called for Obama almost as soon as the polls closed. In Wayne County, home to Detroit, Obama piled up a 3–1 margin. Democratic strongholds Washtenaw County (home to Ann Arbor and the University of Michigan), Ingham County (home to Lansing and Michigan State) and Genesee County (home to Flint) gave Obama 65-70% of the vote. Macomb County, which McCain had focused so intensely on, voted Democratic by a comfortable margin of 9%. Oakland County, once a bastion of suburban conservatism, went for Obama by 15 points.

Obama also carried Kent County (home to Grand Rapids and former President Gerald Ford) by a very narrow 0.5% margin of victory, or 1,573 votes, the first time that a Democrat had done so since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964. Republican support in the state collapsed; McCain was only able to win two counties with margins of more than 10,000 votes.[21] This result signified continued evidence of Michigan's Democratic tilt, anchored by the heavily Democratic cities of Detroit, Lansing, Ann Arbor, and Flint.

Barack Obama won 46 Michigan counties compared to 37 for John McCain. The largest county with a very close winning margin was a 49.3% vs. 48.8% plurality for Obama in Kent County.[22], this is the last presidential election in which Alger County, Alpena County, Arenac County, Benzie County, Berrien County, Cass County, Clare County, Clinton County, Delta County, Gladwin County, Gratiot County, Iosco County, Iron County, Jackson County, Lenawee County, Mason County, Menominee County, Oceana County, Ogemaw County, Ontonagon County, Presque Isle County, Roscommon County, Schoolcraft County, and St. Clair County voted for the Democratic candidate. This is also the last presidential election in which the Democratic candidate won the Upper Peninsula.

At the same time as Obama swept the state, Democrats made more gains in Michigan. Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Carl Levin was reelected with 62.65% of the vote over Republican Jack Hoogendyk's 33.84%. Democrats also picked up two U.S. House seats in Michigan in the 7th District and the 9th District, with Mark Schauer and Gary Peters knocking off Tim Walberg and Joe Knollenberg, respectively. This gave Democrats the majority in Michigan's U.S. House delegation. In addition, Democrats picked up nine seats in the Michigan House of Representatives.

Results

2008 United States presidential election in Michigan
PartyCandidateRunning mateVotesPercentageElectoral votes
DemocraticBarack ObamaJoe Biden2,872,57957.33%17
RepublicanJohn McCainSarah Palin2,048,63940.89%0
Natural LawRalph NaderMatt Gonzalez33,0850.66%0
LibertarianBob BarrWayne Allyn Root23,7160.47%0
ConstitutionChuck BaldwinDarrell Castle14,6850.29%0
GreenCynthia McKinneyRosa Clemente8,8920.18%0
Write-InsWrite-Ins8,5330.17%0
Totals5,010,129 100.00%17
Voter turnout (Voting age population)66.9%

By county

CountyBarack Obama
Democratic		John McCain
Republican		Various candidates
Other parties		MarginTotal votes cast
%%%%
Alcona2,89645.11%3,40453.02%1201.87%-508-7.91%6,420
Alger2,47252.04%2,18846.06%901.89%2845.98%4,750
Allegan24,16543.63%30,06154.28%1,1542.09%-5,896-10.65%55,380
Alpena7,70550.95%7,12547.11%2941.94%5803.84%15,124
Antrim6,07943.89%7,50654.19%2671.93%-1,427-10.30%13,852
Arenac4,15551.12%3,80746.84%1662.04%3484.28%8,128
Baraga1,72547.22%1,84650.53%822.25%-121-3.31%3,653
Barry13,44943.91%16,43153.65%7492.44%-2,982-9.74%30,629
Bay32,58956.59%23,79541.32%1,2042.09%8,79415.27%57,588
Benzie5,45152.88%4,68745.47%1711.66%7647.41%10,309
Berrien40,38151.88%36,13046.42%1,3231.70%4,2515.46%77,834
Branch8,41346.01%9,53452.14%3381.85%-1,121-6.13%18,285
Calhoun34,56153.84%28,55344.48%1,0821.69%6,0089.36%64,196
Cass12,08351.25%11,11447.14%3791.61%9694.11%23,576
Charlevoix6,81747.35%7,30650.74%2751.91%-489-3.39%14,398
Cheboygan6,72048.34%6,92049.78%2611.88%-200-1.44%13,901
Chippewa8,18448.98%8,26749.48%2571.54%-83-0.50%16,708
Clare7,49651.32%6,79346.51%3162.17%7034.81%14,605
Clinton20,00549.54%19,72648.85%6501.61%2790.69%40,381
Crawford3,44147.94%3,56149.61%1762.45%-120-1.67%7,178
Delta9,97452.32%8,76345.97%3271.72%1,2116.35%19,064
Dickinson5,99545.04%7,04952.96%2672.00%-1,054-7.92%13,311
Eaton30,74253.36%25,90044.95%9741.69%4,8428.41%57,616
Emmet8,51546.92%9,31451.32%3201.76%-799-4.40%18,149
Genesee143,92765.27%72,45132.86%4,1171.87%71,47632.41%220,495
Gladwin6,59049.77%6,39148.27%2601.96%1991.50%13,241
Gogebic4,75757.44%3,33040.21%1942.35%1,42717.23%8,281
Grand Traverse23,25847.62%24,71650.60%8691.78%-1,458-2.98%48,843
Gratiot9,10551.33%8,32246.92%3111.75%7834.41%17,738
Hillsdale8,76542.86%11,22154.87%4632.27%-2,456-12.01%20,449
Houghton7,47646.81%8,10150.72%3952.47%-625-3.91%15,972
Huron8,36748.83%8,43449.22%3341.95%-67-0.39%17,135
Ingham93,99465.72%46,48332.50%2,5491.78%47,51133.22%143,026
Ionia12,56545.93%14,15651.74%6382.33%-1,591-5.81%27,359
Iosco7,30951.38%6,58346.28%3332.34%7265.10%14,225
Iron3,08049.98%2,94747.83%1352.19%1332.15%6,162
Isabella16,67958.71%11,22039.49%5111.80%5,45919.22%28,410
Jackson37,48050.19%35,69247.79%1,5072.02%1,7882.40%74,679
Kalamazoo77,05158.79%51,55439.34%2,4561.87%25,49719.45%131,061
Kalkaska3,78044.48%4,52753.27%1922.25%-747-8.79%8,499
Kent149,90949.34%148,33648.83%5,5541.83%1,5730.51%303,799
Keweenaw61043.26%75653.62%443.12%-146-10.36%1,410
Lake2,91955.16%2,26942.88%1041.98%65012.28%5,292
Lapeer21,45747.30%22,83150.33%1,0742.37%-1,374-3.03%45,362
Leelanau7,35550.85%6,93847.97%1711.18%4172.88%14,464
Lenawee24,64051.48%22,22546.43%1,0002.09%2,4155.05%47,865
Livingston42,34942.39%55,59255.64%1,9651.97%-13,243-13.25%99,906
Luce1,19143.47%1,49054.38%592.15%-299-10.91%2,740
Mackinac3,02747.23%3,26850.99%1141.78%-241-3.76%6,409
Macomb223,78453.26%187,66344.66%8,7292.08%36,1218.60%420,176
Manistee7,23555.62%5,51042.36%2642.02%1,72513.26%13,009
Marquette19,63559.03%12,90638.80%7192.17%6,72920.23%33,260
Mason7,81751.29%7,14746.89%2771.82%6704.40%15,241
Mecosta9,10148.68%9,23849.41%3581.91%-137-0.73%18,697
Menominee5,98154.02%4,85543.85%2362.13%1,12610.17%11,072
Midland20,70147.26%22,26350.83%8341.91%-1,562-3.57%43,798
Missaukee2,89838.68%4,46959.65%1251.67%-1,571-20.97%7,492
Monroe39,18051.13%35,85846.79%1,5932.08%3,3224.34%76,631
Montcalm13,20848.75%13,29149.05%5972.20%-83-0.30%27,096
Montmorency2,40344.83%2,84153.00%1162.17%-438-8.17%5,360
Muskegon53,82163.73%29,14534.51%1,4901.76%24,67629.22%84,456
Newaygo10,79046.52%11,86251.14%5442.34%-1,072-4.62%23,196
Oakland372,56656.42%276,95641.94%10,8731.64%95,61014.48%660,395
Oceana6,40551.20%5,86046.85%2441.95%5454.35%12,509
Ogemaw5,39149.93%5,13347.54%2742.53%2582.39%10,798
Ontonagon1,96650.60%1,82346.92%962.48%1433.68%3,885
Osceola4,85544.03%5,97354.17%1981.80%-1,118-10.14%11,026
Oscoda1,88743.42%2,32053.38%1393.18%-433-9.96%4,346
Otsego5,63444.55%6,75253.39%2612.06%-1,118-8.84%12,647
Ottawa50,82837.23%83,33061.03%2,3811.74%-32,502-23.80%136,539
Presque Isle3,72249.55%3,60648.01%1832.44%1161.54%7,511
Roscommon7,08250.24%6,72747.72%2872.04%3552.52%14,096
Saginaw60,27657.80%42,22540.49%1,7821.71%18,05117.31%104,283
St. Clair40,67750.28%38,53647.63%1,6872.09%2,1412.65%80,900
St. Joseph12,32247.81%12,88650.00%5632.19%-564-2.19%25,771
Sanilac9,04744.86%10,67952.95%4432.19%-1,632-8.09%20,169
Schoolcraft2,18450.38%2,05847.47%931.95%1262.91%4,335
Shiawassee19,39753.27%16,26844.67%7502.06%3,1298.60%36,415
Tuscola13,50348.48%13,74049.33%6112.19%-237-0.85%27,854
Van Buren18,58853.47%15,53444.68%6441.85%3,0548.79%34,766
Washtenaw130,57869.62%53,94628.76%3,0241.62%76,63240.86%187,548
Wayne660,08574.02%219,58224.62%12,0641.36%440,50349.40%891,731
Wexford7,37946.88%8,04451.10%3182.02%-665-4.22%15,741
Totals2,872,57957.33%2,048,63940.89%89,3881.78%823,94016.44%5,010,606

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Barack Obama carried 12 of the 15 congressional districts in Michigan, including three districts held by Republicans.

DistrictMcCainObamaRepresentative
48.11%49.93%Bart Stupak
50.85%47.50%Peter Hoekstra
49.43%48.84%Vern Ehlers
48.19%50.09%Dave Camp
34.71%63.67%Dale Kildee
44.18%54.12%Fred Upton
46.50%51.73%Tim Walberg (110th Congress)
Mark Schauer (111th Congress)
45.72%52.58%Mike Rogers
42.83%55.79%Joe Knollenberg (110th Congress)
Gary Peters (111th Congress)
49.85%48.23%Candice Miller
44.56%53.78%Thaddeus McCotter
33.23%65.05%Sander Levin
14.47%84.71%Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick
13.45%85.77%John Conyers Jr.
32.48%65.80%John Dingell

Electors

See main article: List of 2008 United States presidential electors.

Technically the voters of Michigan cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Michigan is allocated 17 electors because it has 15 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 17 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 17 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them.[23] An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 15, 2008, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 17 were pledged to Obama and Biden:

  1. Brenda Abbey
  2. Dallas Dean
  3. Ida DeHaas
  4. Ron Gettelfinger
  5. James Hoffa
  6. Kenneth Paul Jenkins
  7. Harry Kalogerakos
  8. Jessica Mistak
  9. Arturo Reyes
  10. Griffin Rivers
  11. Gary Shepherd
  12. Roger Short
  13. Arthur Shy
  14. Richard West
  15. Whitney Randall Wolcott
  16. David Woodward
  17. Charlene Yarbrough

See also

Notes and References

  1. Web site: SOS - General Election Voter Registration/Turnout Statistics.
  2. Web site: 2009-01-01. D.C.'s Political Report: The complete source for campaign summaries.. 2021-08-23. https://web.archive.org/web/20090101161206/http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/Predictions.html. 2009-01-01.
  3. Web site: 2015-05-05. Presidential. 2021-08-23. https://web.archive.org/web/20150505003043/http://cookpolitical.com/presidential. 2015-05-05.
  4. Web site: 2009-04-22. Vote 2008 - The Takeaway - Track the Electoral College vote predictions. 2021-08-23. https://web.archive.org/web/20090422070127/http://vote2008.thetakeaway.org/2008/09/20/track-the-electoral-college-vote-predictions/. 2009-04-22.
  5. Web site: Electoral-vote.com: President, Senate, House Updated Daily. 2021-08-23. electoral-vote.com.
  6. Based on Takeaway
  7. Web site: POLITICO's 2008 Swing State Map - POLITICO.com. 2016-09-22. www.politico.com.
  8. Web site: RealClearPolitics - Electoral Map. dead. https://web.archive.org/web/20080605003612/http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=5. 2008-06-05.
  9. Web site: CQ Presidential Election Maps, 2008. dead. https://web.archive.org/web/20090614004022/http://innovation.cq.com/prezMap08. June 14, 2009. December 20, 2009. CQ Politics.
  10. News: Nagourney. Adam. Zeleny. Jeff. Carter. Shan. 2008-11-04. The Electoral Map: Key States. The New York Times. May 26, 2010.
  11. News: 2008-10-31. October  - 2008  - CNN Political Ticker - CNN.com Blogs. CNN. May 26, 2010. 2010-06-19. https://web.archive.org/web/20100619013250/http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/10/. dead.
  12. News: April 27, 2010. Winning The Electoral College. Fox News.
  13. Web site: roadto270. 2016-09-22. hosted.ap.org.
  14. Web site: Election 2008: Electoral College Update - Rasmussen Reports. 2016-09-22. www.rasmussenreports.com.
  15. http://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008/pollsa.php?fips=26 Election 2008 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections
  16. Web site: Presidential Campaign Finance . 2009-08-19 . https://web.archive.org/web/20090324085925/http://www.fec.gov/DisclosureSearch/MapAppState.do?stateName=MI&cand_id=P00000001 . 2009-03-24 . dead .
  17. News: Map: Campaign Ad Spending - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com . CNN . 2010-05-26.
  18. News: Map: Campaign Candidate Visits - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com . CNN . 2010-05-26.
  19. Web site: Rasmussen Reports: The Most Comprehensive Public Opinion Site. . 2009-05-30 . https://web.archive.org/web/20090227062119/http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/michigan/election_2008_michigan_presidential_election . 2009-02-27 . dead .
  20. Web site: McCain pulling out of Michigan - Yahoo! News. 2008-12-20.
  21. News: Election Results 2008 . 2009-04-05 . The New York Times . dead . https://web.archive.org/web/20041103020223/http://usinfo.state.gov/products/pubs/history/ch13.htm . November 3, 2004 .
  22. Web site: 2008 Presidential General Election Data Graphs - Michigan . Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections . Dave Leip . 2016-09-02.
  23. Web site: Electoral College . 2008-11-01 . . dead . https://web.archive.org/web/20081030041546/http://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/elections_ec.htm . October 30, 2008 .

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