2004 United States presidential election in Michigan explained

See main article: 2004 United States presidential election.

Election Name:2004 United States presidential election in Michigan
Country:Michigan
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2000 United States presidential election in Michigan
Previous Year:2000
Next Election:2008 United States presidential election in Michigan
Next Year:2008
Turnout:64.7% [1]
Election Date:November 2, 2004
Image1:John F. Kerry.jpg
Nominee1:John Kerry
Party1:Democratic Party (United States)
Home State1:Massachusetts
Running Mate1:John Edwards
Electoral Vote1:17
Popular Vote1:2,479,183
Percentage1:51.23%
Nominee2:George W. Bush
Party2:Republican Party (United States)
Home State2:Texas
Running Mate2:Dick Cheney
Electoral Vote2:0
Popular Vote2:2,313,746
Percentage2:47.81%
President
Before Election:George W. Bush
Before Party:Republican Party (United States)
After Election:George W. Bush
After Party:Republican Party (United States)

The 2004 United States presidential election in Michigan took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 17 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

Michigan was won by Democratic nominee John Kerry by a 3.4% margin of victory. Although no Republican carried this state in a presidential election since Bush's father George H. W. Bush in 1988, early polling showed the race was a toss-up, thus was considered as a possible target for the Republicans. Prior to the election, most news organizations considered this a toss-up, or a crucial swing state. Later polling favored Kerry, leading more than half of the news organizations to predict that Kerry would win the state, but the other less than half still considered it a swing state. Although the State of Michigan voted for the Democratic presidential nominee in six subsequent elections since 1992, the margins of victory had become smaller over the past elections. On election day, Kerry won the state with 51.23% of the vote, but won only 15 of the 83 counties in Michigan. Most of these 15 counties have the highest populations in the state. The biggest key to Kerry's victory was winning Wayne County with 69.39% of the vote.

Bush was the first president elected to two terms in office without carrying Michigan either time since Woodrow Wilson in 1912 and 1916, and is to date the only Republican presidential candidate to win the presidency without carrying the state at least once, as well as the most recent Republican to win without the state. Although Michigan was also not carried by the winner of the 2000 presidential race, the election also marked the first time since 1976 that Michigan voted against the winner of the national popular vote. Bush was the first Republican to win the national popular vote without Michigan since the 1968 presidential race. This also marked the first time since 1940 that an incumbent president won reelection without carrying Michigan.

As of 2020, this is the most recent election to date in which Michigan would vote for the losing candidate, thus the state is tied with Wisconsin and Pennsylvania for the longest bellwether streak in the nation.

Caucuses

Campaign

Predictions

There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.[2]

!Source!Ranking
D.C. Political Report
Cook Political Report
Research 2000
Zogby International
The Washington PostWashington Post
Washington Dispatch
Washington Times
The New York Times
CNN
Newsweek
Associated Press
Rasmussen Reports

Polling

Pre-election polling did show a close race early on, but in the fall election Kerry pulled away and won every poll since the month of September. The last 3 poll average showed Kerry leading 49% to 46%.[3]

Fundraising

Bush raised $4,960,010.[4] Kerry raised $2,496,203.[5]

Advertising and visits

In the fall campaign, Bush visited the state ten times. Kerry visited seven times. Both candidates combined spent over $2 million in advertising each week,[6] but Kerry spent slightly more each week.[7]

Analysis

Kerry won Michigan with 51.2% and by a margin of 3.4%. While a reduced margin with respect to Gore's in 2000, the state trended Democratic in 2004 relative to the nation.[8] Bush won a majority of the state's counties and congressional districts, holding Kerry to only 15 counties (whereas Gore had carried 24). But he underperformed previous Republicans in two large suburban counties that had recently been Republican strongholds in the state, Oakland and Macomb Counties. Kerry narrowly held onto Oakland County, which has a more white-collar populace and had voted Republican in every election from 1940 through 1992 save 1964, and had voted to re-elect Bill Clinton in 1996 by only 4.3%. Bush did flip the more blue-collar Macomb County, which Gore had become the second Democrat to carry after a twenty-year run of voting Republican from 1972 through 1992, but he carried it by only 1.4%, making it still slightly bluer than the nation. Meanwhile, Kerry maintained the traditional Democratic domination of Wayne County, winning about the same 69% vote share in it that Gore had won in 2000. Michigan had voted Republican in every election from 1972 through 1988, in all of which Oakland and Macomb had given the Republican a healthy margin.

Results

2004 United States presidential election in Michigan
PartyCandidateVotesPercentageElectoral votes
DemocraticJohn Kerry2,479,18351.2%17
RepublicanGeorge W. Bush (incumbent)2,313,74647.8%0
IndependentRalph Nader24,0350.5%0
LibertarianMichael Badnarik10,5520.2%0
GreenDavid Cobb5,3250.1%0
US TaxpayersMichael Peroutka4,9800.1%0
Natural LawWalt Brown1,4310.0%0
Totals4,839,252100.00%17
Voter turnout (Voting Age Population)64.2%

By county

CountyJohn Kerry
Democratic
George W. Bush
Republican
Various candidates
Other parties
MarginTotal votes cast
%%%%
Alcona2,87143.96%3,59255.00%681.04%-721-11.04%6,531
Alger2,39550.26%2,31848.65%521.09%771.61%4,765
Allegan19,35535.90%34,02263.11%5300.98%-14,667-27.21%53,907
Alpena7,40748.70%7,66550.39%1390.91%-258-1.69%15,211
Antrim5,07237.24%8,37961.52%1681.23%-3,307-24.28%13,619
Arenac4,07649.61%4,07149.55%690.84%50.06%8,216
Baraga1,66045.06%1,97753.66%471.28%-317-8.60%3,684
Barry11,31237.37%18,63861.57%3221.06%-7,326-24.20%30,272
Bay31,04954.42%25,44844.60%5620.98%5,6019.82%57,059
Benzie4,38344.83%5,28454.04%1111.14%-901-9.21%9,778
Berrien32,84643.99%41,07655.01%7491.00%-8,230-11.02%74,671
Branch7,00438.98%10,78460.02%1791.00%-3,780-21.04%17,967
Calhoun29,89147.70%32,09351.21%6831.09%-2,202-3.51%62,667
Cass9,53742.02%12,96457.12%1960.86%-3,427-15.10%22,697
Charlevoix5,72940.52%8,21458.09%1961.39%-2,485-17.57%14,139
Cheboygan5,94142.78%7,79856.15%1481.07%-1,857-13.37%13,887
Chippewa7,20343.69%9,12255.33%1630.99%-1,919-11.64%16,488
Clare6,98449.09%7,08849.82%1541.08%-104-0.73%14,226
Clinton15,48340.95%21,98958.16%3350.89%-6,506-17.21%37,807
Crawford3,12643.21%4,01755.52%921.27%-891-12.31%7,235
Delta9,38148.76%9,68050.32%1770.92%-299-1.56%19,238
Dickinson5,65041.70%7,73457.08%1651.22%-2,084-15.38%13,549
Eaton25,41145.58%29,78153.41%5631.01%-4,370-7.83%55,755
Emmet6,84639.41%10,33259.48%1941.12%-3,486-20.07%17,372
Genesee128,33460.03%83,87039.23%1,5710.73%44,46420.80%213,775
Gladwin6,34347.95%6,77051.18%1140.86%-427-3.23%13,227
Gogebic4,42152.31%3,93546.56%961.14%4865.75%8,452
Grand Traverse18,25639.52%27,44659.42%4891.06%-9,190-19.90%46,191
Gratiot7,37742.45%9,83456.59%1680.97%-2,457-14.14%17,379
Hillsdale7,12335.23%12,80463.34%2891.43%-5,681-28.11%20,216
Houghton6,73142.46%8,88956.08%2311.46%-2,158-13.62%15,851
Huron7,62943.68%9,67155.37%1660.95%-2,042-11.69%17,466
Ingham76,87757.78%54,73441.14%1,4421.08%22,14316.64%133,053
Ionia10,64738.55%16,62160.18%3501.27%-5,974-21.63%27,618
Iosco6,55746.82%7,30152.13%1481.06%-744-5.31%14,006
Iron3,21549.38%3,22449.52%721.11%-9-0.14%6,511
Isabella12,33450.57%11,75448.19%3021.24%5802.38%24,390
Jackson31,02543.21%40,02955.75%7411.03%-9,004-12.54%71,795
Kalamazoo61,46251.31%57,14747.71%1,1740.98%4,3153.60%119,783
Kalkaska3,18938.05%5,08460.67%1071.28%-1,895-22.62%8,380
Kent116,90940.19%171,20158.85%2,7810.96%-54,292-18.66%290,891
Keweenaw63043.78%78154.27%281.95%-151-10.49%1,439
Lake2,67550.99%2,50347.71%681.30%1723.28%5,246
Lapeer18,08640.97%25,55657.89%5051.14%-7,470-16.92%44,147
Leelanau6,04843.46%7,73355.57%1360.98%-1,685-12.11%13,917
Lenawee20,78744.22%25,67554.61%5501.17%-4,888-10.39%47,012
Livingston33,99136.26%58,86062.79%8910.95%-24,869-26.53%93,742
Luce1,04536.94%1,74961.82%351.24%-704-24.88%2,829
Mackinac2,81942.72%3,70656.16%741.12%-887-13.44%6,599
Macomb196,16048.75%202,16650.24%4,0841.01%-6,006-1.49%402,410
Manistee6,27249.23%6,29549.41%1731.36%-23-0.18%12,740
Marquette17,41253.60%14,69045.22%3861.19%2,7228.38%32,488
Mason6,33343.34%8,12455.60%1541.05%-1,791-12.26%14,611
Mecosta7,73043.97%9,71055.23%1410.80%-1,980-11.26%17,581
Menominee5,32646.64%5,94252.04%1511.32%-616-5.40%11,419
Midland18,35542.41%24,36956.31%5511.27%-6,014-13.90%43,275
Missaukee2,31931.25%5,05568.12%470.63%-2,736-36.87%7,421
Monroe36,08948.68%37,47050.54%5730.77%-1,381-1.86%74,132
Montcalm11,47142.91%14,96855.99%2951.10%-3,497-13.08%26,734
Montmorency2,19639.48%3,30059.32%671.20%-1,104-19.84%5,563
Muskegon44,28255.14%35,30243.96%7290.91%8,98011.18%80,313
Newaygo9,05739.60%13,60859.49%2080.91%-4,551-19.89%22,873
Oakland319,38749.75%316,63349.32%5,9570.93%2,7540.43%641,977
Oceana5,44144.25%6,67754.30%1791.46%-1,236-10.05%12,297
Ogemaw5,21548.30%5,45450.52%1271.18%-239-2.22%10,796
Ontonagon1,86344.44%2,26253.96%671.60%-399-9.52%4,192
Osceola4,46739.93%6,59958.98%1221.09%-2,132-19.05%11,188
Oscoda1,79240.64%2,57058.29%471.07%-778-17.65%4,409
Otsego4,67437.98%7,47060.70%1631.32%-2,796-22.72%12,307
Ottawa35,55227.64%92,04871.55%1,0430.81%-56,496-43.91%128,643
Presque Isle3,43245.66%3,98252.98%1021.36%-550-7.32%7,516
Roscommon6,81047.43%7,36451.28%1851.29%-554-3.85%14,359
Saginaw54,88753.37%47,16545.86%8000.78%7,7227.51%102,852
St. Clair36,17445.36%42,74053.60%8291.04%-6,566-8.24%79,743
St. Joseph9,64838.23%15,34060.78%2510.99%-5,692-22.55%25,239
Sanilac7,88337.97%12,63260.84%2481.19%-4,749-22.87%20,763
Schoolcraft2,13748.12%2,26751.05%370.83%-130-2.93%4,441
Shiawassee16,88146.06%19,40752.95%3630.99%-2,526-6.89%36,651
Tuscola12,63144.57%15,38954.31%3181.12%-2,758-9.74%28,338
Van Buren16,15147.26%17,63451.60%3891.14%-1,483-4.34%34,174
Washtenaw109,95363.46%61,45535.47%1,8561.07%48,49827.99%173,264
Wayne600,04769.39%257,75029.81%6,9310.80%342,29739.58%864,728
Wexford6,03439.80%8,96659.14%1601.06%-2,932-19.34%15,160
Totals2,479,18351.23%2,313,74647.81%46,3230.96%165,4373.42%4,839,252

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Bush won 10 of 15 congressional districts, including one held by a Democrat.[9]

DistrictBushKerryRepresentative
53%46%Bart Stupak
60%39%Peter Hoekstra
59%40%Vern Ehlers
55%44%Dave Camp
41%59%Dale Kildee
53%46%Fred Upton
54%45%Nick Smith
54%45%
51%49%
57%43%Candice Miller
53%47%
39%61%
19%81%
17%83%
38%62%

Electors

See main article: List of 2004 United States presidential electors.

Technically the voters of Michigan cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Michigan is allocated 17 electors because it has 15 congressional districts and two senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 17 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 17 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 17 were pledged for Kerry/Edwards:

  1. Carol Vining Moore
  2. Margaret Robinson
  3. Ida I. DeHaas
  4. Marcela L. Ort
  5. Vickie Sue Price
  6. Paul Todd
  7. Leonard Smigielski
  8. Bruce McAttee
  9. Stanley W. Harris
  10. Yvonne Williams
  11. Elizabeth D. Tavarozzi
  12. Charley Jackson
  13. Joan Robinson Cheeks
  14. Roger Short
  15. Harless Scott
  16. Richard Shoemaker
  17. Michael Pitt

See also

Notes and References

  1. Web site: SOS - General Election Voter Registration/Turnout Statistics. 2018-12-06. 2018-12-06. https://web.archive.org/web/20181206235134/https://www.michigan.gov/sos/0,4670,7-127-1633_8722-29616--,00.html. live.
  2. Web site: Archived copy . dcpoliticalreport.com . 13 January 2022 . https://web.archive.org/web/20101121204958/http://dcpoliticalreport.com/members/2004/Pred2.htm#NW . 21 November 2010 . dead.
  3. Web site: Election 2004 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections. https://web.archive.org/web/20081128081210/http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/polls.php?fips=26 . 2008-11-28.
  4. Web site: George W Bush - $374,659,453 raised, '04 election cycle, Republican Party, President. 2009-09-08. 2017-09-05. https://web.archive.org/web/20170905094612/https://www.campaignmoney.com/political/campaigns/george_w_bush.asp?cycle=04. live.
  5. Web site: John F Kerry - $345,826,176 raised, '04 election cycle, Democrat Party, President. 2009-09-08. 2017-09-05. https://web.archive.org/web/20170905101200/https://www.campaignmoney.com/political/campaigns/john_f_kerry.asp?cycle=04. live.
  6. Web site: America votes 2004: Campaign ad buys . . 2022-05-27 . 2021-04-22 . https://web.archive.org/web/20210422073439/http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/special/president/campaign.ads/ . live .
  7. Web site: America votes 2004: SHOWDOWN STATES: MICHIGAN . . 2022-05-27 . 2021-06-12 . https://web.archive.org/web/20210612130630/https://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/special/president/showdown/MI/ . live .
  8. Web site: Leip. Dave. September 17, 2020. Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections. September 17, 2020. October 26, 2020. https://web.archive.org/web/20201026124603/https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/data.php?year=2004&def=tnd&datatype=national&f=0&off=0&elect=0. live.
  9. Web site: Presidential Results by Congressional District, 2000-2008 – Swing State Project. 2009-07-16. 2015-10-16. https://web.archive.org/web/20151016181827/http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/4161/. live.