2004 United States presidential election in Kentucky explained

See main article: 2004 United States presidential election.

Election Name:	2004 United States presidential election in Kentucky
Country:	Kentucky
Type:	presidential
Ongoing:	no
Previous Election:	2000 United States presidential election in Kentucky
Previous Year:	2000
Next Election:	2008 United States presidential election in Kentucky
Next Year:	2008
Election Date:	November 2, 2004
Nominee1:	George W. Bush
Party1:	Republican Party (United States)
Home State1:	Texas
Running Mate1:	Dick Cheney
Electoral Vote1:	8
Popular Vote1:	1,069,439
Percentage1:	59.55%
Nominee2:	John Kerry
Party2:	Democratic Party (United States)
Home State2:	Massachusetts
Running Mate2:	John Edwards
Electoral Vote2:	0
Popular Vote2:	712,733
Percentage2:	39.69%
Map Size:	380px
President
Before Election:	George W. Bush
Before Party:	Republican Party (United States)
After Election:	George W. Bush
After Party:	Republican Party (United States)
Turnout:	64.74%^[1]

The 2004 United States presidential election in Kentucky took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose eight representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

Kentucky was won by incumbent President George W. Bush by a 19.86% margin of victory. Prior to the election, all 12 news organizations considered this a state Bush would win, or otherwise a red state. Bush widened his margin of victory since his victory in 2000 against Al Gore, the former Senator of neighboring Tennessee, by 4.73%. He made his strongest progress in the eastern part of the state and at the border with Virginia. As of 2020, this is the last time that Kentucky has voted to the left of neighboring Indiana, the last election in which Fayette County has voted for the Republican candidate, and the last in which Knott County, Floyd County, Breathitt County, Bath County, Pike County, Carter County, and Magoffin County voted for the Democratic candidate. This was the first time ever that a Republican won a majority in Ballard County.

This victory coincided with a U.S. Senate election, where controversial Republican incumbent Jim Bunning was narrowly reelected over Daniel Mongiardo, most likely due to Bush's landslide victory.

Primaries

• 2004 Democratic Party presidential primaries

Campaign

Predictions

There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.^[2]

!Source!Ranking

D.C. Political Report
Cook Political Report
Research 2000
Zogby International
The Washington Post	Washington Post
Washington Dispatch
Washington Times
The New York Times
CNN
Newsweek
Associated Press
Rasmussen Reports

Polling

Bush won every single pre-election poll, and won each by a double-digit margin of victory and with at least 52% of the vote. The final 3 poll averaged Bush leading 57% to 38%.^[3]

Fundraising

Bush raised $2,398,982.^[4] Kerry raised $1,433,748.^[5]

Advertising and visits

Neither campaign advertised or visited this state during the fall campaign.^{[6] [7]}

Results

President George W. Bush easily defeated Massachusetts Senator John F. Kerry in Kentucky, capturing the state's 8 electoral votes. Bush did well throughout the state. Kerry only won a handful of counties. Kerry performed decently in coal country in east Kentucky but Kerry fared poorly in other rural parts of the state. Kerry did win Jefferson County, the most populous county in the state and home of Louisville. However this was not enough to overcome Bush's lead. This race was not close, whereas the concurrent senate race was very tight., this is the last election in which Fayette County voted for the Republican candidate and the last election in which Knott County, Floyd County, Breathitt County, Bath County, Pike County, Carter County, and Magoffin County voted for the Democratic candidate. This was the first time ever that a Republican won a majority in Ballard County.

United States presidential election in Kentucky, 2004
Party		Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Electoral votes
	Republican	George W. Bush (incumbent)	1,069,439	59.55%	8
	Democratic	John Kerry	712,733	39.69%	0
	Reform	Ralph Nader	8,856	0.49%	0
	Libertarian	Michael Badnarik	2,619	0.15%	0
	Constitution	Michael Peroutka	2,213	0.12%	0
Totals			1,795,860	100.00%	8
Voter turnout (Voting age population)					57.5%

By county

County	George W. Bush Republican		John Kerry Democratic		Various candidates Other parties		Margin		Total
		%		%		%		%
	Adair		5,628		75.57%		1,764		23.69%		55		0.74%		3,864		51.88%		7,447
	Allen		5,202		72.62%		1,923		26.85%		38		0.53%		3,279		45.77%		7,163
	Anderson		6,363		66.34%		3,141		32.75%		87		0.91%		3,222		33.59%		9,591
	Ballard		2,389		57.19%		1,759		42.11%		29		0.70%		630		15.08%		4,177
	Barren		10,822		67.05%		5,216		32.32%		102		0.63%		5,606		34.73%		16,140
	Bath		2,269		46.13%		2,608		53.02%		42		0.85%		-339		-6.89%		4,919
	Bell		6,722		61.10%		4,210		38.27%		70		0.64%		2,512		22.83%		11,002
	Boone		32,329		71.71%		12,391		27.49%		362		0.80%		19,938		44.22%		45,082
	Bourbon		4,953		60.28%		3,198		38.92%		66		0.80%		1,755		21.36%		8,217
	Boyd		11,501		52.81%		10,132		46.53%		144		0.66%		1,369		6.28%		21,777
	Boyle		7,764		62.16%		4,646		37.20%		80		0.64%		3,118		24.96%		12,490
	Bracken		2,363		65.46%		1,213		33.60%		34		0.95%		1,150		31.86%		3,610
	Breathitt		2,542		42.77%		3,327		55.97%		75		1.26%		-785		-13.20%		5,944
	Breckinridge		5,580		65.49%		2,884		33.85%		56		0.66%		2,696		31.64%		8,520
	Bullitt		19,433		67.88%		9,043		31.59%		151		0.53%		10,390		36.29%		28,627
	Butler		4,109		73.66%		1,436		25.74%		33		0.59%		2,673		47.92%		5,578
	Caldwell		4,066		64.04%		2,245		35.36%		38		0.60%		1,821		28.68%		6,349
	Calloway		9,293		61.36%		5,728		37.82%		124		0.81%		3,565		23.54%		15,145
	Campbell		25,540		63.57%		14,253		35.48%		382		0.96%		11,287		28.09%		40,175
	Carlisle		1,734		60.95%		1,102		38.73%		9		0.32%		632		22.22%		2,845
	Carroll		2,175		55.81%		1,688		43.32%		34		0.87%		487		12.49%		3,897
	Carter		5,422		48.77%		5,577		50.17%		118		1.06%		-155		-1.40%		11,117
	Casey		5,109		80.83%		1,174		18.57%		38		0.60%		3,935		62.26%		6,321
	Christian		13,935		66.31%		6,970		33.17%		110		0.52%		6,965		33.14%		21,015
	Clark		9,540		62.28%		5,661		36.96%		116		0.76%		3,879		25.32%		15,317
	Clay		5,726		74.49%		1,901		24.73%		60		0.77%		3,825		49.76%		7,687
	Clinton		3,369		77.41%		952		21.88%		31		0.72%		2,417		55.53%		4,352
	Crittenden		2,726		65.06%		1,438		34.32%		26		0.62%		1,288		30.74%		4,190
	Cumberland		2,356		72.74%		848		26.18%		35		1.09%		1,508		46.56%		3,239
	Daviess		25,372		61.16%		15,788		38.06%		323		0.78%		9,584		23.10%		41,483
	Edmonson		3,595		65.59%		1,856		33.86%		30		0.55%		1,739		31.73%		5,481
	Elliott		871		29.46%		2,064		69.80%		22		0.75%		-1,193		-40.34%		2,957
	Estill		3,633		65.17%		1,907		34.21%		35		0.63%		1,726		30.96%		5,575
	Fayette		66,406		52.88%		57,994		46.18%		1,176		0.94%		8,412		6.70%		125,576
	Fleming		3,749		60.44%		2,406		38.79%		48		0.78%		1,343		21.65%		6,203
	Floyd		6,612		36.97%		11,132		62.24%		141		0.79%		-4,520		-25.27%		17,885
	Franklin		12,281		50.89%		11,620		48.15%		232		0.96%		661		2.74%		24,133
	Fulton		1,527		52.84%		1,340		46.37%		23		0.80%		187		6.47%		2,890
	Gallatin		1,869		60.82%		1,188		38.66%		16		0.52%		681		22.16%		3,073
	Garrard		4,784		71.85%		1,841		27.65%		33		0.50%		2,943		44.20%		6,658
	Grant		5,951		67.44%		2,818		31.94%		55		0.62%		3,133		35.50%		8,824
	Graves		9,903		61.02%		6,206		38.24%		120		0.74%		3,697		22.78%		16,229
	Grayson		7,170		70.69%		2,905		28.64%		68		0.67%		4,265		42.05%		10,143
	Green		3,866		74.26%		1,312		25.20%		28		0.54%		2,554		49.06%		5,206
	Greenup		8,696		52.91%		7,630		46.43%		109		0.67%		1,066		6.48%		16,435
	Hancock		2,286		56.74%		1,709		42.42%		34		0.84%		577		14.32%		4,029
	Hardin		24,627		67.58%		11,507		31.58%		307		0.84%		13,120		36.00%		36,441
	Harlan		6,659		60.15%		4,332		39.13%		79		0.71%		2,327		21.02%		11,070
	Harrison		4,855		62.80%		2,807		36.31%		69		0.89%		2,048		26.49%		7,731
	Hart		4,269		62.93%		2,470		36.41%		45		0.67%		1,799		26.52%		6,784
	Henderson		10,467		55.97%		8,101		43.32%		133		0.72%		2,366		12.65%		18,701
	Henry		4,094		62.99%		2,366		36.41%		39		0.60%		1,728		26.58%		6,499
	Hickman		1,395		59.56%		926		39.54%		21		0.90%		469		20.02%		2,342
	Hopkins		12,314		65.35%		6,420		34.07%		109		0.58%		5,894		31.28%		18,843
	Jackson		4,369		84.38%		769		14.85%		40		0.78%		3,600		69.53%		5,178
	Jefferson		164,566		48.75%		170,158		50.41%		2,845		0.84%		-5,592		-1.66%		337,569
	Jessamine		12,972		69.82%		5,476		29.47%		132		0.71%		7,496		40.35%		18,580
	Johnson		5,940		63.84%		3,288		35.34%		76		0.81%		2,652		28.50%		9,304
	Kenton		43,664		65.05%		22,834		34.02%		625		0.93%		20,830		31.03%		67,123
	Knott		2,648		35.81%		4,685		63.36%		61		0.83%		-2,037		-27.55%		7,394
	Knox		8,108		67.41%		3,822		31.78%		98		0.82%		4,286		35.63%		12,028
	LaRue		4,111		68.88%		1,823		30.55%		34		0.57%		2,288		38.33%		5,968
	Laurel		16,819		75.54%		5,297		23.79%		148		0.66%		11,522		51.75%		22,264
	Lawrence		3,755		57.65%		2,705		41.53%		53		0.81%		1,050		16.12%		6,513
	Lee		2,018		69.11%		878		30.07%		24		0.82%		1,140		39.04%		2,920
	Leslie		3,661		73.75%		1,266		25.50%		37		0.74%		2,395		48.25%		4,964
	Letcher		4,801		52.96%		4,192		46.24%		72		0.79%		609		6.72%		9,065
	Lewis		3,778		68.89%		1,667		30.40%		39		0.71%		2,111		38.49%		5,484
	Lincoln		5,996		67.65%		2,796		31.55%		71		0.80%		3,200		36.10%		8,863
	Livingston		2,675		56.84%		2,007		42.65%		24		0.51%		668		14.19%		4,706
	Logan		6,815		64.03%		3,768		35.40%		61		0.57%		3,047		28.63%		10,644
	Lyon		2,132		54.32%		1,769		45.07%		24		0.61%		363		9.25%		3,925
	McCracken		18,218		61.14%		11,361		38.13%		218		0.73%		6,857		23.01%		29,797
	McCreary		4,121		72.39%		1,530		26.88%		42		0.74%		2,591		45.51%		5,693
	McLean		2,584		58.26%		1,823		41.10%		28		0.64%		761		17.16%		4,435
	Madison		18,922		61.62%		11,525		37.53%		260		0.85%		7,397		24.09%		30,707
	Magoffin		2,836		49.60%		2,843		49.72%		39		0.68%		-7		-0.12%		5,718
	Marion		3,905		53.10%		3,399		46.22%		50		0.68%		506		6.88%		7,354
	Marshall		9,049		58.30%		6,383		41.12%		89		0.58%		2,666		17.18%		15,521
	Martin		2,996		66.01%		1,504		33.14%		39		0.86%		1,492		32.87%		4,539
	Mason		4,381		61.89%		2,644		37.35%		54		0.76%		1,737		24.54%		7,079
	Meade		7,152		65.31%		3,724		34.01%		75		0.69%		3,428		31.30%		10,951
	Menifee		1,215		48.06%		1,284		50.79%		29		1.15%		-69		-2.73%		2,528
	Mercer		6,745		67.26%		3,224		32.15%		59		0.59%		3,521		35.11%		10,028
	Metcalfe		2,645		63.63%		1,472		35.41%		40		0.96%		1,173		28.22%		4,157
	Monroe		4,657		79.70%		1,158		19.82%		28		0.48%		3,499		59.88%		5,843
	Montgomery		5,647		55.20%		4,506		44.05%		77		0.76%		1,141		11.15%		10,230
	Morgan		2,682		50.87%		2,532		48.03%		58		1.10%		150		2.84%		5,272
	Muhlenberg		6,749		50.07%		6,636		49.23%		94		0.70%		113		0.84%		13,479
	Nelson		10,161		60.32%		6,524		38.73%		159		0.94%		3,637		21.59%		16,844
	Nicholas		1,700		55.57%		1,332		43.54%		27		0.88%		368		12.03%		3,059
	Ohio		6,311		62.93%		3,627		36.17%		80		0.80%		2,684		26.76%		10,028
	Oldham		18,801		69.29%		8,080		29.78%		251		0.93%		10,721		39.51%		27,132
	Owen		3,084		65.05%		1,615		34.06%		42		0.89%		1,469		30.99%		4,741
	Owsley		1,558		77.94%		430		21.51%		11		0.55%		1,128		56.43%		1,999
	Pendleton		4,045		67.14%		1,940		32.20%		40		0.67%		2,105		34.94%		6,025
	Perry		6,187		53.08%		5,400		46.33%		68		0.58%		787		6.75%		11,655
	Pike		12,611		47.11%		14,002		52.30%		157		0.59%		-1,391		-5.21%		26,770
	Powell		2,687		54.17%		2,249		45.34%		24		0.48%		438		8.83%		4,960
	Pulaski		19,535		76.56%		5,829		22.84%		152		0.60%		13,706		53.72%		25,516
	Robertson		670		61.47%		413		37.89%		7		0.64%		257		23.58%		1,090
	Rockcastle		4,804		77.91%		1,320		21.41%		42		0.68%		3,484		56.50%		6,166
	Rowan		4,063		46.67%		4,556		52.33%		87		1.00%		-493		-5.66%		8,706
	Russell		6,009		76.83%		1,772		22.66%		40		0.51%		4,237		54.17%		7,821
	Scott		10,600		62.17%		6,325		37.10%		125		0.73%		4,275		25.07%		17,050
	Shelby		10,909		66.87%		5,277		32.35%		127		0.78%		5,632		34.52%		16,313
	Simpson		4,273		60.67%		2,730		38.76%		40		0.57%		1,543		21.91%		7,043
	Spencer		4,816		70.60%		1,970		28.88%		36		0.53%		2,846		41.72%		6,822
	Taylor		7,247		70.39%		2,979		28.94%		69		0.67%		4,268		41.45%		10,295
	Todd		3,242		68.20%		1,491		31.36%		21		0.44%		1,751		36.84%		4,754
	Trigg		4,023		65.83%		2,046		33.48%		42		0.69%		1,977		32.35%		6,111
	Trimble		2,332		61.53%		1,428		37.68%		30		0.79%		904		23.85%		3,790
	Union		3,534		59.13%		2,398		40.12%		45		0.75%		1,136		19.01%		5,977
	Warren		25,100		63.21%		14,326		36.08%		285		0.72%		10,774		27.13%		39,711
	Washington		3,479		66.44%		1,724		32.93%		33		0.63%		1,755		33.51%		5,236
	Wayne		5,027		65.41%		2,616		34.04%		42		0.54%		2,411		31.37%		7,685
	Webster		3,207		57.82%		2,304		41.54%		36		0.65%		903		16.28%		5,547
	Whitley		9,559		70.14%		3,985		29.24%		85		0.62%		5,574		40.90%		13,629
	Wolfe		1,385		43.90%		1,744		55.28%		26		0.82%		-359		-11.38%		3,155
	Woodford		6,937		60.31%		4,480		38.95%		85		0.74%		2,457		21.36%		11,502
Totals	1,069,439	59.54%	712,733	39.68%	13,907	0.77%	356,706	19.86%	1,796,079

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

• Ballard (Largest city: LaCenter)
• Boyd (Largest city: Ashland)
• Franklin (Largest city: Frankfort)
• Fulton (Largest city: Fulton)
• Harlan (Largest city: Cumberland)
• Henderson (Largest city: Henderson)
• Letcher (Largest city: Jenkins)
• Muhlenberg (Largest city: Central City)
• Perry (Largest city: Hazard)

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

• Bath (Largest city: Owingsville)
• Carter (Largest city: Grayson)
• Magoffin (Largest city: Salyersville)
• Menifee (Largest city: Frenchburg)
• Rowan (Largest city: Morehead)
• Wolfe (Largest city: Campton)

By congressional district

Bush won 5 of 6 congressional districts, both candidates won a district held by the other party.

District	Bush	Kerry	Representative
		63%	36%		Ed Whitfield
		65%	34%		Ron Lewis
		49%	51%		Anne Northup
		63%	36%		Geoff Davis
		61%	39%		Hal Rogers
		58%	41%		Ben Chandler

Electors

See main article: List of 2004 United States presidential electors.

Technically the voters of Kentucky cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Kentucky is allocated 8 electors because it has 6 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 8 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 8 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 8 were pledged to Bush/Cheney:

1. Rachel N. McCubbin
2. Keith A. Hall
3. Carolyn Cole
4. Martha G. Prewitt
5. Donald E. Girdler
6. Constance M. Gray
7. Frank Schwendeman
8. Carla T. Bartleman

Notes and References

1. Web site: Voter turnout report for the 11/02/04 General Election . Commonwealth of Kentucky - State Board of Elections.
2. http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/members/2004/Pred2.htm#NW
3. Web site: 2004 Presidential Election Polls . Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections.
4. Web site: George W Bush - $374,659,453 raised, '04 election cycle, Republican Party, President.
5. Web site: John F Kerry - $345,826,176 raised, '04 election cycle, Democrat Party, President.
6. News: America votes 2004: Campaign ad buys . CNN . 2022-05-27 . 2021-04-22 . https://web.archive.org/web/20210422073439/http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/special/president/campaign.ads/ . live .
7. Web site: America votes 2004: Candidate tracker . . 2022-05-27.