2008 United States presidential election in Idaho explained

Election Name:2008 United States presidential election in Idaho
Country:Idaho
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2004 United States presidential election in Idaho
Previous Year:2004
Next Election:2012 United States presidential election in Idaho
Next Year:2012
Election Date:November 4, 2008
Image1:John McCain 2009 Official.jpg
Nominee1:John McCain
Party1:Republican Party (United States)
Home State1:Arizona
Running Mate1:Sarah Palin
Electoral Vote1:4
Popular Vote1:403,012
Percentage1:61.21%
Nominee2:Barack Obama
Party2:Democratic Party (United States)
Home State2:Illinois
Running Mate2:Joe Biden
Electoral Vote2:0
Popular Vote2:236,440
Percentage2:35.91%
Map Size:300px
President
Before Election:George W. Bush
Before Party:Republican Party (United States)
After Election:Barack Obama
After Party:Democratic Party (United States)

The 2008 United States presidential election in Idaho took place on November 4, 2008, and was part of the 2008 United States presidential election. Voters chose four representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

Idaho was won by Republican nominee John McCain by a 25.3% margin of victory. Prior to the election, all 17 major news organizations considered this a state McCain would win, or a red state. Polling in the state gave a sizable lead to McCain over Democrat Barack Obama, with most polling predicting a McCain win of at least 30 percentage points. Despite his landslide defeat in the state, Obama over-performed his polls and greatly improved on Kerry's performance four years earlier. Idaho has not gone Democratic since Lyndon B. Johnson narrowly won it in 1964.

Primaries

Campaign

Predictions

There were 16 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day:

!Source!Ranking
D.C. Political Report[1]
Cook Political Report[2]
The Takeaway[3]
Electoral-vote.com[4]
The Washington PostWashington Post[5]
Politico[6]
RealClearPolitics[7]
FiveThirtyEight
CQ Politics[8]
The New York Times[9]
CNN[10]
NPR
MSNBC
Fox News[11]
Associated Press[12]
Rasmussen Reports[13]

Polling

McCain won every pre-election poll with a double-digit margin and with at least 52 percent of the vote. The final three poll average gave the Republican 66 percent to Obama's 29 percent.[14]

Fundraising

Obama raised $874,523. McCain raised $441,338.[15]

Advertising and visits

Obama spent $268. McCain spent $434.[16] Neither campaign visited the state.[17]

Analysis

With a substantial Mormon population, Idaho is one of the most reliably GOP bastions in the country. Although Barack Obama became the first Democratic presidential candidate since Michael Dukakis in 1988 to eclipse 35 percent of the vote in solidly red state Idaho,[18] the state was still won handily by John McCain by a margin of approximately 25.34 percent. McCain carried 41 of the state's 44 counties, with Obama winning Blaine County, home to Sun Valley and several other prime ski resorts; Latah County, home to the college town of Moscow, and Teton County, a highly affluent suburb of Teton County, Wyoming, and the last until Joe Biden won it in 2020 United States presidential election in Idaho. Obama was the first Democrat to carry Teton County since Harry S. Truman in 1948.[19] [20] He also narrowed the Republican margins of victory in Ada County, and in the state capital and city of Boise to single digits. McCain's victory in Idaho, however, was less than that of George W. Bush who carried the state with 68.38 percent of the vote in 2004, a 12.78-point swing to the Democrats in Idaho.

With 61.21 percent of the popular vote, Idaho proved to be McCain's fourth strongest state in 2008 election after Oklahoma, Wyoming and Utah.[21]

Obama became the first Democrat to win the White House without carrying Nez Perce County since Grover Cleveland in 1892.

During the same election, Republicans held onto the open U.S. Senate seat vacated by Republican Larry Craig who reluctantly retired after it was revealed that he had solicited a man for sex in the men's restroom at an airport in Minneapolis. Former Lieutenant Governor Jim Risch, a Republican, was elected with 57.65% of the vote over Democrat Larry LaRocco who received 34.11%. A pro-life independent candidate received 5.35 point while Libertarian Kent Marmon received 1.54% and Rex Rammell, a far right-wing candidate who also ran as an Independent, received 1.34%.

At the state level, Republicans expanded their supermajority status in the Idaho state legislature as they picked up one seat in the Idaho House of Representatives.

Results

2008 United States presidential election in Idaho[22]
PartyCandidateRunning mateVotesPercentageElectoral votes
RepublicanJohn McCainSarah Palin403,01261.21%4
DemocraticBarack ObamaJoe Biden236,44035.91%0
IndependentRalph NaderMatt Gonzalez7,1751.09%0
ConstitutionChuck BaldwinDarrell Castle4,7470.72%0
LibertarianBob BarrWayne Allyn Root3,6580.56%0
Write-insWrite-ins3,3400.51%0
American Independent (Write-in)Alan Keyes (Write-in)Brian Rohrbough400.01%0
Green (Write-in)Cynthia McKinney (Write-in)Rosa Clemente390.01%0
Socialist (Write-in)Brian Moore (Write-in)Stewart Alexander30.00%0
Totals658,454100.00%4
Voter turnout (Voting age population)60.1%

Results by county

CountyJohn McCain
Republican		Barack Obama
Democratic		Ralph Nader[23]
Independent		Charles Baldwin
Constitution		Bob Barr
Libertarian		MarginTotal
%%%%%%
Ada93,32851.63%82,23645.49%1,9781.09%7770.43%1,0830.60%11,0926.14%180,760
Adams1,51765.39%72831.38%361.55%200.86%190.82%78934.01%2,320
Bannock19,35654.62%14,79241.74%4851.37%2570.73%2150.61%4,56412.88%35,437
Bear Lake2,37780.77%50217.06%260.88%270.92%110.37%1,87563.71%2,943
Benewah2,64663.54%1,40733.79%481.15%380.91%250.60%1,23929.75%4,164
Bingham12,23071.29%4,42425.79%2071.21%2031.18%910.53%7,80645.50%17,156
Blaine3,43932.53%6,94765.71%1061.00%160.15%630.60%-3,508-33.18%10,573
Boise2,43364.48%1,24032.87%481.27%250.66%270.72%1,19331.61%3,773
Bonner11,14557.01%7,84040.10%2591.32%1951.00%1080.55%3,30516.91%19,550
Bonneville29,33470.34%11,41727.38%3340.80%3620.87%2560.61%17,91742.96%41,703
Boundary3,07865.02%1,48431.35%671.42%771.63%270.57%1,59433.67%4,734
Butte1,05675.11%31822.62%181.28%70.50%70.50%73852.49%1,406
Camas42268.28%18730.26%50.81%10.16%30.49%23538.02%618
Canyon42,75266.07%20,14731.14%6390.99%3870.60%3210.50%22,60534.93%64,706
Caribou2,65680.44%55316.75%561.70%230.70%140.42%2,10363.69%3,302
Cassia6,30979.93%1,33216.88%861.09%720.91%430.54%4,97763.05%7,893
Clark30581.33%6417.07%20.53%30.80%10.27%24164.26%375
Clearwater2,56965.77%1,21131.00%601.54%350.90%310.79%1,35834.77%3,906
Custer1,69471.99%61125.97%180.76%170.72%120.51%1,08346.02%2,353
Elmore5,66566.76%2,59130.53%1101.30%370.44%330.39%3,07436.23%8,486
Franklin4,24683.68%60011.82%480.95%1422.80%370.73%3,64671.86%5,074
Fremont4,70079.92%1,06518.11%460.78%440.75%250.43%3,63561.81%5,881
Gem5,58570.27%2,16627.25%1121.41%520.65%320.40%3,41943.02%7,948
Gooding3,76569.84%1,48927.62%751.39%350.65%270.50%2,27642.22%5,391
Idaho5,89571.79%2,01724.56%770.94%1672.03%540.66%3,87847.23%8,212
Jefferson8,54081.79%1,64115.72%720.69%1381.32%500.48%6,89966.07%10,441
Jerome4,89771.52%1,79426.20%741.08%360.53%460.67%3,10345.32%6,847
Kootenai38,38761.38%22,12035.37%5920.95%5650.90%2680.43%16,26726.01%62,535
Latah7,98844.59%9,19551.32%1991.11%2041.14%1280.71%-1,207-6.73%17,916
Lemhi2,93871.57%1,06125.85%290.71%451.10%320.78%1,87745.72%4,105
Lewis1,27570.68%47926.55%201.11%231.27%70.39%79644.13%1,804
Lincoln1,23265.88%54529.14%774.12%100.53%60.32%68736.74%1,870
Madison11,13185.24%1,62712.46%810.62%1491.14%690.53%9,50472.78%13,058
Minidoka5,08773.83%1,63023.66%791.15%520.75%420.61%3,45750.17%6,890
Nez Perce10,35758.11%7,12339.97%1891.06%820.46%720.40%3,23418.14%17,823
Oneida1,72479.74%38117.62%110.51%271.25%190.88%1,34362.12%2,162
Owyhee3,02474.52%94423.26%370.91%290.71%240.59%2,08051.26%4,058
Payette5,98868.88%2,41527.78%1051.21%660.76%390.45%3,57341.10%8,693
Power1,75461.72%1,02736.14%280.99%130.46%200.70%72725.58%2,842
Shoshone2,95352.11%2,52144.49%1111.96%420.74%390.69%4327.62%5,667
Teton2,26348.57%2,30249.41%611.31%130.28%190.41%-39-0.84%4,659
Twin Falls19,03266.52%8,62130.13%3581.25%1810.63%1520.53%10,41136.39%28,613
Valley2,77252.33%2,40545.40%651.23%210.40%330.62%3676.93%5,297
Washington3,16870.31%1,24127.54%410.91%280.62%280.62%1,92742.77%4,506
Totals403,01261.21%236,44035.91%7,1751.09%4,7470.72%3,6580.56%166,57225.30%658,454

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

John McCain solidly swept both Idaho's congressional districts, including one that elected a Democrat.

DistrictMcCainObamaRepresentative
61.82%35.88%Bill Sali (110th Congress)
Walt Minnick (111th Congress)
61.19%36.34%Mike Simpson

Electors

See main article: List of 2008 United States presidential electors.

Technically the voters of Idaho cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Idaho is allocated four electors because it has two congressional districts and two senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of four electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins a plurality of votes in the state is awarded all four electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them.[24] An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 15, 2008, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All four were pledged to John McCain and Sarah Palin:[25]

  1. Darlene Bramon
  2. Ben Doty
  3. John Erickson
  4. Melinda Smyser

See also

Notes and References

  1. Web site: 2009-01-01. D.C.'s Political Report: The complete source for campaign summaries.. 2021-08-23. https://web.archive.org/web/20090101161206/http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/Predictions.html. 2009-01-01.
  2. Web site: 2015-05-05. Presidential. 2021-08-23. https://web.archive.org/web/20150505003043/http://cookpolitical.com/presidential. 2015-05-05.
  3. Web site: 2009-04-22. Vote 2008 - The Takeaway - Track the Electoral College vote predictions. 2021-08-23. https://web.archive.org/web/20090422070127/http://vote2008.thetakeaway.org/2008/09/20/track-the-electoral-college-vote-predictions/. 2009-04-22.
  4. Web site: Electoral-vote.com: President, Senate, House Updated Daily. 2021-08-23. electoral-vote.com.
  5. Based on Takeaway
  6. Web site: POLITICO's 2008 Swing State Map - POLITICO.com. 2016-09-22. www.politico.com.
  7. Web site: RealClearPolitics - Electoral Map. dead. https://web.archive.org/web/20080605003612/http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=5. 2008-06-05.
  8. Web site: CQ Presidential Election Maps, 2008. dead. https://web.archive.org/web/20090614004022/http://innovation.cq.com/prezMap08. June 14, 2009. December 20, 2009. CQ Politics.
  9. News: Nagourney. Adam. Zeleny. Jeff. Carter. Shan. 2008-11-04. The Electoral Map: Key States. The New York Times. May 26, 2010.
  10. News: 2008-10-31. October  - 2008  - CNN Political Ticker - CNN.com Blogs. CNN. May 26, 2010. 2010-06-19. https://web.archive.org/web/20100619013250/http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/10/. dead.
  11. News: April 27, 2010. Winning The Electoral College. Fox News.
  12. Web site: roadto270. 2016-09-22. hosted.ap.org.
  13. Web site: Election 2008: Electoral College Update - Rasmussen Reports. 2016-09-22. www.rasmussenreports.com.
  14. http://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008/pollsa.php?fips=16 Election 2008 Polls – Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections
  15. Web site: Presidential Campaign Finance . 2009-08-20 . https://web.archive.org/web/20090324090225/http://www.fec.gov/DisclosureSearch/MapAppState.do?stateName=ID&cand_id=P00000001 . 2009-03-24 . dead .
  16. News: Map: Campaign Ad Spending – Election Center 2008 from CNN.com . CNN . 2010-05-26.
  17. News: Map: Campaign Candidate Visits – Election Center 2008 from CNN.com . CNN . 2010-05-26.
  18. http://www.uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=1988&fips=16&f=1&off=0&elect=0 1988 Presidential General Election Results – Idaho
  19. The Political Graveyard; Teton County, Idaho
  20. News: Idaho Election Results. The New York Times. 3 November 2020.
  21. Web site: 2008 Presidential Election Statistics. Dave Leip’s Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections. 2018-03-05.
  22. Web site: Atlas of U.S. Presidential Election Results 2008 – Idaho . 2013-01-12.
  23. Our Campaigns; ID US President Race, November 04, 2008
  24. Web site: Electoral College . 2008-11-01 . . dead . https://web.archive.org/web/20081030041546/http://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/elections_ec.htm . October 30, 2008 .
  25. https://www.archives.gov/federal-register/electoral-college/2008-certificates/index.html#id U. S. Electoral College 2008 Election – Certificates

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