2018 United States Senate special election in Mississippi explained

Election Name:2018 United States Senate special election in Mississippi
Country:Mississippi
Flag Image:Flag of Mississippi (2001–2020).svg
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2014 United States Senate election in Mississippi
Previous Year:2014
Next Election:2020 United States Senate election in Mississippi
Next Year:2020
Election Date:November 6, 2018 (first round)
November 27, 2018 (runoff)
Turnout:48.14%
1Blank:First round
2Blank:Runoff
Image1:File:Cindy Hyde-Smith official photo.jpg
Candidate1:Cindy Hyde-Smith
Party1:Republican Party (United States)
1Data1:389,995
41.25%
2Data1:486,769
53.63%
Candidate2:Mike Espy
Party2:Democratic Party (United States)
1Data2:386,742
40.90%
2Data2:420,819
46.37%
Image3:File:Chris McDaniel.png
Candidate3:Chris McDaniel
Party3:Republican Party (United States)
1Data3:154,878
16.38%
2Data3:Eliminated
U.S. Senator
Before Election:Cindy Hyde-Smith
Before Party:Republican Party (United States)
After Election:Cindy Hyde-Smith
After Party:Republican Party (United States)

The 2018 United States Senate special election in Mississippi took place on November 6, 2018, in order to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Mississippi. On April 1, 2018, a U.S. Senate vacancy was created when Republican senator Thad Cochran resigned due to health concerns.[1] Mississippi Governor Phil Bryant appointed Republican Cindy Hyde-Smith to fill the vacancy.[2] Hyde-Smith sought election to serve the balance of Cochran's term, which was scheduled to expire in January 2021.[3]

On November 6, 2018, per Mississippi law, a nonpartisan top-two special general election took place on the same day as the regularly scheduled U.S. Senate election for the seat then held by Roger Wicker. Party affiliations were not printed on the ballot.[4] Because no candidate gained a simple majority of the vote, a runoff between the top two candidates, Hyde-Smith and Mike Espy,[5] was held on November 27, 2018. Hyde-Smith defeated Espy, 53.63%-46.37%.[6] [7]

The victory made Hyde-Smith the first woman ever elected to Congress from Mississippi.[8]

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Withdrawn

General election

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of October 12, 2018
CandidateTotal receiptsTotal disbursementsCash on hand
Cindy Hyde-Smith$1,654,032$264,232$1,389,799
Mike Espy$408,236$126,760$281,476
Chris McDaniel$327,263$171,208$156,054
Source: Federal Election Commission[24]

Polling

Graphical summary

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Cindy
Mike
Espy		Chris
McDaniel		Tobey
Bartee		OtherUndecided
Change Research (D)[25] November 2–4, 20181,003–27% align=center40% align=center28%1%––
NBC News/Marist[26] October 13–18, 2018511 LV± 6.1% align=center38% align=center29%15%2%<1%15%
856 RV± 4.7% align=center36% align=center28%14%3%1%17%
SurveyMonkey[27] September 9–24, 2018985± 4.3% align=center24% align=center25%19%4%– align=center27%
Neighborhood Research Corporation (R-Courageous Conservatives PAC)[28] August 22–23 and 27–30, 2018304± 5.0% align=center27% align=center28%18%–– align=center27%
The Mellman Group (D-Espy)[29] August 1–7, 2018600± 4.0% align=center29% align=center27%17%–––
Triumph Campaigns[30] July 30–31, 20182,100± 3.5% align=center41% align=center27%15%1%–16%
GS Strategy Group (U.S. Chamber of Commerce)[31] May 1–3, 2018500± 4.4% align=center30% align=center22%17%–4%[32] –
Triumph Campaigns[33] April 10–11, 20181,000± 3.0% align=center33% align=center33%13%–6%[34] 15%
Chism Strategies (D-Espy)[35] March 27, 2018603± 4.0% align=center27% align=center34%21%––18%

Results

Runoff

During the run-off campaign, while appearing with cattle rancher Colin Hutchinson in Tupelo, Mississippi, Hyde-Smith said, "If he invited me to a public hanging, I'd be in the front row." Hyde-Smith's comment immediately drew harsh criticism, given Mississippi's notorious history of lynchings of African-Americans. In response to the criticism, Hyde-Smith downplayed her comment as "an exaggerated expression of regard" and characterized the backlash as "ridiculous."[36] [37] [38] [39] [40] [41]

Hyde-Smith joined Mississippi Governor Phil Bryant at a news conference in Jackson, Mississippi on November 12, 2018, where she was asked repeatedly about her comment by reporters. In the footage, Hyde-Smith adamantly refused to provide any substantive answer to reporters' questions, responding on five occasions with variations of, "I put out a statement yesterday, and that's all I'm gonna say about it."[42] [43] When reporters redirected questions to Bryant, he defended Hyde-Smith's comment, and changed the subject to abortion, saying he was "confused about where the outrage is at about 20 million African American children that have been aborted."[44]

On November 15, 2018, Hyde-Smith appeared in a video clip saying that it would be "a great idea" to make it more difficult for liberals to vote.[45] Her campaign stated that Hyde-Smith was making an obvious joke, and the video was selectively edited. Both this and the "public hanging" video were released by Lamar White Jr., a Louisiana blogger and journalist.[46] Attention was also drawn to photographs, posted on Facebook four years earlier, of Hyde-Smith and her husband visiting former Confederate President Jefferson Davis' home, a historic site.[47] The photos show her wearing a Confederate hat and posing with a rifle commonly used by Confederate soldiers.

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[49] October 26, 2018
Inside Elections[50] November 20, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[51] November 5, 2018
Fox News[52] October 10, 2018
CNN[53] October 12, 2018
RealClearPolitics[54] October 12, 2018
FiveThirtyEight[55] November 5, 2018

Polling

Graphical summary

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Cindy
Mike
Espy		OtherUndecided
Change Research (D)[56] November 25, 20181,211– align=center51%46%––
JMC Analytics/Bold Blue Campaigns (D)[57] November 19–21 and 23–24, 2018684± 4.0% align=center54%44%–1%
NBC News/MaristOctober 13–18, 2018511 LV± 6.1% align=center50%36%1%13%
856 RV± 4.7% align=center47%38%1%14%
The Mellman Group (D-Espy)August 1–7, 2018600± 4.0%38% align=center41%––
Triumph CampaignsJuly 30–31, 20182,100± 3.5% align=center48%34%–18%
Mason-Dixon[58] April 12–14, 2018625± 4.0% align=center46%34%–20%
Triumph CampaignsApril 10–11, 20181,000± 3.0% align=center42%36%–23%
with Chris McDaniel and Mike Espy
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Chris
McDaniel		Mike
Espy		OtherUndecided
Marist College[59] October 13–18, 2018511 LV± 6.1%36% align=center43%2%19%
856 RV± 4.7%35% align=center43%2%19%
The Mellman Group (D–Espy)[60] August 1–7, 2018600± 4.0%27% align=center45%––
Triumph CampaignsJuly 30–31, 20182,100± 3.5%26% align=center41%–33%
Mason-DixonApril 12–14, 2018625± 4.0%40% align=center42%–18%
Triumph CampaignsApril 10–11, 20181,000± 3.0%24% align=center43%–33%

Results

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Hyde-Smith won 3 of 4 congressional districts.[61]

DistrictHyde-SmithEspyRepresentative
61%39%Trent Kelly
32%68%Bennie Thompson
58%42%Michael Guest
65%35%Steven Palazzo

External links

Official campaign websites

Notes and References

  1. News: Mississippi Senator Thad Cochran announces he is stepping down. Jacobs. Ben. March 5, 2018. the Guardian. en. March 5, 2018.
  2. Web site: Governor picks Cindy Hyde-Smith to replace Cochran. Eric Bradner . Kaitlan Collins . Ashley Killough. March 20, 2018 . CNN.
  3. Web site: U.S. Chamber poll shows Cindy Hyde-Smith leading Mike Espy, Chris McDaniel in Senate race. November 19, 2018.
  4. News: How Things Could Go Wrong For Republicans In Mississippi's New Senate Race. Rakich. Nathaniel. 2018-03-06. FiveThirtyEight. 2018-04-28. en-US.
  5. News: The Latest: Mississippi has 3 more weeks of US Senate race. 2018-11-07. AP NEWS. 2018-11-08.
  6. News: 2018 Elections Calendar – Mississippi Secretary of State. 2018-10-30. en-US. November 9, 2018. https://web.archive.org/web/20181109202805/http://www.sos.ms.gov/Elections-Voting/Documents/2018%20Website%20Calendar.pdf. dead.
  7. Web site: 2018-11-28. Republican Cindy Hyde-Smith Wins Mississippi Senate Runoff. 2020-09-19. Bloomberg.com.
  8. Web site: Pappas . Alex . 2019-05-30 . Longtime Mississippi Republican Sen. Thad Cochran dead at 81 . 2023-04-14 . Fox News . en-US.
  9. Web site: Shelton leaves special US Senate race. wtok.com. May 8, 2018 . August 26, 2018.
  10. Web site: Chris McDaniel, Tobey Bartee qualify to run for U.S. Senate seat. Carroll. Liz. April 23, 2018. wjtv.com. August 26, 2018. June 22, 2018. https://web.archive.org/web/20180622174042/http://www.wjtv.com/news/state/chris-mcdaniel-tobey-bartee-qualify-to-run-for-us-senate-seat/1136142595. dead.
  11. Web site: Espy announces run for Cochran Senate seat. Pender. Geoff. March 5, 2018. The Clarion-Ledger. March 6, 2018.
  12. Web site: Who will get the Golden Ticket for US Senate from Phil Bryant? – Yall Politics. yallpolitics.com. March 8, 2018 .
  13. Web site: McDaniel to Run for Open Mississippi Senate Seat – Chris McDaniel for US Senate. March 14, 2018. March 14, 2018. https://web.archive.org/web/20180315114454/https://mcdaniel2018.com/2018/03/14/mcdaniel-run-open-mississippi-senate-seat/. March 15, 2018. dead.
  14. Web site: Senator Chris McDaniel. www.facebook.com.
  15. News: Here are a few Democrats who could make a U.S. Senate run in Mississippi. The Clarion Ledger. December 29, 2017. en.
  16. News: Millennial Democrat enters 4th Congressional District race. sunherald. December 29, 2017. en.
  17. News: Cochran resigns effective April 1. POLITICO. March 8, 2018.
  18. Web site: Bryant not interested in Cochran seat despite urging from Trump, McConnell.
  19. Web site: Lee County Democratic Party leader mulls Senate run. Northeast Mississippi Daily Journal. Bedillion. Caleb. March 29, 2018. March 29, 2018.
  20. Andy_Taggart. 975504928876761089. March 18, 2018. I have a lot of confidence in @PhilBryantMS to make a wise choice on current @SenThadCochran vacancy. But I also intend to hold open whatever options are needed to fend off @senatormcdaniel, including a run against him..
  21. Web site: Shelton stokes questions about possible Senate run. CALEB BEDILLION DAILY. JOURNAL. March 28, 2018 .
  22. Web site: Tupelo Mayor Jason Shelton announces run for U.S. Senate special election in Mississippi. clarionledger.com. August 26, 2018.
  23. Web site: Democratic Mayor Jason Shelton drops out of Senate race. clarionledger.com. August 26, 2018.
  24. Web site: Campaign finance data. October 12, 2018.
  25. https://web.archive.org/web/20181105223803/https://twitter.com/ChangePolls/status/1059562373772505088 Change Research (D)
  26. http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/NBC-News_Marist-Poll_MS-Adults-and-Registered-Voters-and-Likely-Voters_NOS-and-Tables_1810220840.pdf NBC News/Marist
  27. http://media1.s-nbcnews.com/i/today/z_creative/NBCNewsSurveyMonkeyMississippiPollToplinesMethodology102.pdf SurveyMonkey
  28. http://yallpolitics.com/2018/09/03/pac-behind-nevertrump-effort-commissions-poll-which-says-mcdaniel-still-badly-trails-mssen/ Neighborhood Research Corporation (R-Courageous Conservatives PAC)
  29. https://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/espy-poll-mississippi-senate-race-shows-path-victory-democrats The Mellman Group (D-Espy)
  30. https://www.scribd.com/document/385819107/YallPolitics-Statewide-Survey-Results-080918 Triumph Campaigns
  31. https://www.scribd.com/document/378707355/U-S-Chamber-Poll GS Strategy Group (U.S. Chamber of Commerce)
  32. Jason Shelton* 4%. *Withdrawn.
  33. https://scribd.com/document/376522205/Yall-Politics-Statewide-US-Senate-Poll-Results-mssen Triumph Campaigns
  34. Jason Shelton* 6%. *Withdrawn.
  35. https://www.clarionledger.com/story/news/politics/2018/04/03/poll-mike-espy-leading-cindy-hyde-smith-chris-mcdaniel-senate-race/482437002/ Chism Strategies (D-Espy)
  36. News: Hyde-Smith jokes about hangings in viral tweet. November 11, 2018. 11 November 2018. The Clarion Ledger.
  37. News: Hyde-Smith's 'Public Hanging' Quip Bombs in State with Most Lynchings. November 11, 2018. 11 November 2018. Jackson Free Press.
  38. News: Mississippi Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith Joked About Going to a 'Public Hanging'. Danner. Chas. November 11, 2018. 11 November 2018. New York Media LLC. The Intelligencer.
  39. News: VIDEO: Cindy Hyde-Smith jokes about sitting in "front row" of "public hanging". McCarthy. Waverly. November 11, 2018. 11 November 2018. WLBT License Subsidiary, LLC. WLBT.
  40. News: GOP Mississippi senator facing criticism over comment about 'public hanging'. Sullivan. Kate. November 12, 2018. 12 November 2018. Cable News Network. Turner Broadcasting System.
  41. News: Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith's Democratic opponent Mike Espy slams 'public hanging' remark as 'reprehensible'. Zwirz. Elizabeth. November 11, 2018. 12 November 2018. Fox News. Fox News Network LLC.
  42. News: Senator deflects over 'public hanging' comment. November 12, 2018. 13 November 2018. Cable News Network. Turner Broadcasting System.
  43. News: Mississippi GOP Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith mum on 'public hanging' remark. NBC News. 2018-11-14. en-US.
  44. News: Governor Calls Abortion 'Black Genocide,' Defends Hyde-Smith on 'Hanging' Tape. 2018-11-14. en.
  45. News: Brice-Saddler . Michael . GOP senator: It's a 'great idea' to make it harder for 'liberal folks' to vote . November 16, 2018 . . November 16, 2018 . en.
  46. News: Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith speaks in video about making it "more difficult" for liberals to vote . . . November 16, 2018 . en.
  47. Web site: Photo of Hyde Smith wearing Confederate soldier's hat in 2014 resurfaces . The Hill . 2018-11-20 . 2019-06-15.
  48. https://www.c-span.org/video/?454630-1/mississippi-us-senate-debate C-SPAN
  49. Web site: 2018 Senate Race Ratings for October 26, 2018. The Cook Political Report. March 13, 2021.
  50. Web site: Gonzales . Nathan L. . Rating Change: Mississippi Senate Race No Longer Solid Republican . Roll Call . en . November 20, 2018.
  51. Web site: Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2018 Senate. www.centerforpolitics.org. en-US. 2018-04-08.
  52. Web site: 2018 Senate Power Rankings. . July 10, 2018.
  53. Web site: Key Races: Senate. July 15, 2018.
  54. Web site: Battle for the Senate 2018. July 15, 2018.
  55. News: Mississippi special – 2018 Senate Forecast. Silver. Nate. FiveThirtyEight. October 20, 2018. en-US.
  56. https://archive.today/20181126192920/https://twitter.com/ChangePolls/status/1067122676819406848 Change Research (D)
  57. https://winwithjmc.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/RRH-Elections-MS-Sen-Poll-2018-for-JMC.pdf JMC Analytics/Bold Blue Campaigns (D)
  58. https://htv-prod-media.s3.amazonaws.com/files/ms418pollpt1-1524236449.pdf Mason-Dixon
  59. http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/NBC-News_Marist-Poll_MS-Adults-and-Registered-Voters-and-Likely-Voters_NOS-and-Tables_1810220840.pdf Marist College
  60. https://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/espy-poll-mississippi-senate-race-shows-path-victory-democrats The Mellman Group (D–Espy)
  61. Web site: DRA 2020 . 2024-08-19 . Daves Redistricting.

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