2016 United States Senate election in Wisconsin explained

Election Name:2016 United States Senate election in Wisconsin
Country:Wisconsin
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2010 United States Senate election in Wisconsin
Previous Year:2010
Next Election:2022 United States Senate election in Wisconsin
Next Year:2022
Election Date:November 8, 2016
Image1:Ron Johnson, official portrait, 112th Congress (3x4b).jpg
Nominee1:Ron Johnson
Party1:Republican Party (United States)
Popular Vote1:1,479,471
Percentage1:50.17%
Nominee2:Russ Feingold
Party2:Democratic Party (United States)
Popular Vote2:1,380,335
Percentage2:46.81%
Map Size:250px
U.S. Senator
Before Election:Ron Johnson
Before Party:Republican Party (United States)
After Election:Ron Johnson
After Party:Republican Party (United States)
Turnout:67.34%

The 2016 United States Senate election in Wisconsin was held November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Wisconsin, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. The primaries were held August 9, 2016.

Incumbent Republican Senator Ron Johnson was re-elected to a second term in office. Former U.S. Senator Russ Feingold, whom Johnson unseated in the 2010 midterm elections, sought a rematch for a fourth non-consecutive term in office but was again defeated by Johnson, who became the first Republican to win a Senate election in Wisconsin during a presidential election year since Bob Kasten in 1980. Kasten was ultimately unseated by Feingold in 1992.[1] Johnson's victory was considered an upset as most polling had Feingold in the lead, coinciding with Donald Trump's own surprise victory in the state's presidential contest. Feingold managed to win six counties that voted for Donald Trump; Columbia, Crawford, Lafayette, Richland, Sauk and Vernon.[2]

Background

In 2010, then-incumbent Democratic senator Russ Feingold ran for re-election to a fourth term in 2010 but was defeated by Republican nominee Ron Johnson.[3]

In March 2013, Johnson announced that he had begun fundraising for his campaign. At that time, he had just $1,529 remaining in his campaign account after raising $16.1 million for the 2010 election, over half of which he self-funded.[4] Johnson said in November 2014 that he would not self-finance another campaign, saying: "I made my $9 million investment in this country. I gave it once, I don't think I should do it again."[5] On May 14, 2015, Feingold announced he would run to win back his former Senate seat.[6] Ultimately, Feingold spent over $24 million on the campaign and ended up with more remaining cash than Johnson, who spent only $20 million.[7]

After the Republicans took control of the Senate following the 2014 Senate elections, the election in Wisconsin was seen by many as a top target for the Democrats, who hoped to retake their majority in the traditionally blue state.[8] [9] [10] [11] [12] Politico pointed to Johnson's "worrisome" favorability ratings as one of the main reasons for his vulnerability.[11] A March 2014 Marquette University Law School poll found that just 29% of voters had a favorable opinion of him.[13]

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Results

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Declared

General election

Candidates

Debates

DatesLocationJohnsonFeingoldLink
October 14, 2016Green Bay, WisconsinParticipantParticipantalign=left [20]
October 18, 2016Milwaukee, WisconsinParticipantParticipantalign=left Full debate[21]

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
align=left The Cook Political Report[22] November 2, 2016
align=left Sabato's Crystal Ball[23] November 7, 2016
align=left Rothenberg Political Report[24] November 3, 2016
align=left Daily Kos[25] November 8, 2016
align=left Real Clear Politics[26] November 7, 2016

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Ron
Johnson (R)		Russ
Feingold (D)		Phil
Anderson (L)		Other /
Neither		Undecided
SurveyMonkey[27] November 1–7, 20162,246± 4.6% align=center49%48%——3%
SurveyMonkey[28] October 31–November 6, 20161,943± 4.6% align=center49%48%——3%
SurveyMonkey[29] October 28–November 3, 20161,568± 4.6%48% align=center49%——3%
Clarity Campaign Labs[30] November 1–2, 20161,129± 2.9%46% align=center49%——5%
SurveyMonkey[31] October 27–November 2, 20161,271± 4.6%48%48%——4%
Public Policy Polling[32] October 31–November 1, 2016891± 3.3%44% align=center49%——7%
Loras College[33] October 31–November 1, 2016500± 4.4%45% align=center47%2%—6%
SurveyMonkey[34] October 26–November 1, 20161,103± 4.6% align=center50%48%——2%
Marquette University[35] align=center rowspan=2October 26–31, 20161,190 LV± 3.5%44% align=center45%3%2%3%
1,401 RV± 3.3%42% align=center43%5%3%5%
SurveyMonkey[36] October 25–31, 20161,195± 4.6%49%49%——2%
Emerson College[37] October 27–28, 2016400± 4.9%44% align=center49%—4%3%
Let America Work[38] ^October 18–20, 2016600± 4.0%46% align=center48%2%—4%
Club for Growth[39] ^October 18–20, 2016400± 4.2%42% align=center45%——13%
Public Policy Polling[40] October 18–19, 2016804± 3.5%41% align=center47%——12%
Monmouth University[41] October 15–18, 2016403± 4.9%44% align=center52%2%—2%
Wisconsin Public Radio/St. Norbert College[42] October 13–16, 2016664± 3.8%40% align=center52%0%3%5%
Washington Post/SurveyMonkey[43] October 8–16, 20161,076± 0.5%46% align=center51%——3%
Google Consumer Surveys[44] October 12–14, 2016551± 4.2%39% align=center58%——3%
Marquette University[45] October 6–9, 2016839 LV± 3.9%44% align=center46%4%1%4%
46% align=center48%—1%4%
1,000 RV± 3.7%42% align=center44%6%1%6%
44% align=center47%—2%5%
CBS News/YouGov[46] October 5–7, 2016993± 4.3%42% align=center45%——13%
Loras College[47] October 4–5, 2016500± 4.4% align=center45%40%—3%9%
Breitbart/Gravis Marketing[48] October 4, 20161,102± 3.0%41% align=center53%——6%
Emerson College[49] September 19–20, 2016700± 3.6%42% align=center52%—3%4%
Marquette University[50] September 15–18, 2016642 LV± 4.8%39% align=center44%7%—10%
41% align=center47%——8%
802 RV± 4.4%37% align=center44%8%—10%
40% align=center46%——11%
Monmouth University[51] August 27–30, 2016404± 4.9%41% align=center54%2%—3%
Public Policy Polling[52] August 26–27, 20161,054± 3.0%42% align=center49%——9%
Marquette UniversityAugust 25–28, 2016650 LV± 5.0%42% align=center45%6%—7%
45% align=center48%——7%
803 RV± 4.5%38% align=center42%8%—12%
42% align=center46%——12%
Global Strategy Group[53] August 25, 2016800± 3.5%37% align=center55%——8%
Let America Work[54] ^August 21–22, 2016600± 4.0%47% align=center50%——3%
Marquette University[55] August 4–7, 2016683 LV± 5.0%39% align=center50%7%—4%
42% align=center53%——6%
805 RV± 4.5%38% align=center47%7%—8%
43% align=center49%——8%
Let America Work^July 30–August 1, 2016600± 4.0%44% align=center50%——6%
Global Strategy GroupJuly 20, 2016800± 3.5%41% align=center52%——7%
Marquette University[56] July 7–10, 2016665 LV± 4.5%40% align=center46%7%—7%
44% align=center49%——7%
801 RV± 4.1%38% align=center45%8%—9%
41% align=center48%——11%
Public Policy Polling[57] June 22–23, 2016843± 3.4%37% align=center50%——13%
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner - Democracy Corps[58] June 11–20, 2016300± 5.7%45% align=center46%——9%
Marquette University[59] align=center rowspan=2June 9–12, 2016666 LV± 4.9%42% align=center51%——7%
800 RV± 4.4%41% align=center45%——14%
Public Policy Polling[60] June 8–9, 2016853± 3.4%41% align=center51%——8%
Wisconsin Public Radio/St. Norbert College[61] April 12–15, 2016616± 4.0%41% align=center51%——6%
Emerson College[62] March 30–April 3, 20161,198± 2.8%44% align=center48%—8%—
Public Policy Polling[63] March 28–29, 20161,397± 2.6%39% align=center46%——15%
Loras College[64] March 28–29, 20161,000± 3.1%39% align=center48%—1%12%
Marquette University[65] align=center rowspan=2March 24–28, 2016957 LV± 4.1%45% align=center48%——7%
1,405 RV± 3.3%42% align=center47%——11%
Marquette University[66] February 18–21, 2016802 RV± 4.5%37% align=center49%——14%
Marquette University[67] January 21–24, 2016806 RV± 4.0%37% align=center50%——13%
Let America Work[68] ^November 16–18, 2015900± 3.3%44% align=center45%——11%
Marquette University[69] November 12–15, 2015803 RV± 4.2%38% align=center49%——13%
Democracy Corps[70] October 24–28, 2015400± 4.9%46% align=center51%——3%
Wisconsin Public Radio/St. Norbert College[71] October 14–17, 2015603± 4.0%40% align=center51%—2%7%
Marquette University[72] September 24–28, 2015803 RV± 4.1%36% align=center50%—7%7%
End Citizens United[73] September 10–14, 2015775± 3.6%39% align=center47%——14%
Marquette University[74] August 13–16, 2015802 RV± 3.5%42% align=center47%——12%
Marquette University[75] April 7–10, 2015803 RV± 3.5%38% align=center54%——9%
Public Policy Polling[76] March 6–8, 20151,071± 3.0%41% align=center50%——9%
Public Policy Polling[77] April 17–20, 20141,144± 2.9%41% align=center47%——12%
Public Policy Polling[78] September 13–16, 20131,180± 2.9%42% align=center49%——9%
Public Policy Polling[79] February 21–24, 2013807± 2.3%42% align=center52%——6%

^ Internal poll taken for Ron Johnson.

with Mary Burke

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		class=small Sample
size		Margin of
error		Ron
Johnson (R)		Mary
Burke (D)		Undecided
Public Policy PollingMarch 6–8, 20151,071± 3.0%45% align=center46%9%

with Mark Pocan

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		class=small Sample
size		Margin of
error		Ron
Johnson (R)		Mark
Pocan (D)		Undecided
Public Policy PollingMarch 6–8, 20151,071± 3.0% align=center43%36%20%

with Gwen Moore

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		class=small Sample
size		Margin of
error		Ron
Johnson (R)		Gwen
Moore (D)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingMarch 6–8, 20151,071± 3.0% align=center45%37%—18%

with Ron Kind

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		class=small Sample
size		Margin of
error		Ron
Johnson (R)		Ron
Kind (D)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingMarch 6–8, 20151,071± 3.0% align=center43%37%—20%
Public Policy PollingApril 17–20, 20141,144± 2.9% align=center41%39%—20%
Public Policy PollingSeptember 13–16, 20131,180± 2.9% align=center43%40%—17%

Results

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Johnson won 6 of 8 congressional districts, including one that elected a Democrat.[80]

DistrictJohnsonFeingoldRepresentative
56%42%Paul Ryan
30%67%Mark Pocan
49%47%Ron Kind
26%71%Gwen Moore
63%35%Jim Sensenbrenner
58%38%Glenn Grothman
57%40%Sean Duffy
59%38%Reid Ribble
Mike Gallagher

External links

Official campaign websites (Archived)

Notes and References

  1. Web site: Ron Johnson defeats Russ Feingold in Wisconsin's U.S. Senate race.
  2. Web site: Wisconsin Elections Commission . elections.wi.gov . 13 June 2023.
  3. News: Election 2010 Wisconsin Results. The New York Times. November 3, 2011. February 27, 2011.
  4. Web site: Wis. Sen. Johnson begins re-election bid. March 11, 2013. September 20, 2013. USA Today. Larry. Bivins.
  5. Web site: Johnson won't self-finance 2016 Senate race. November 19, 2014. November 21, 2014. Green Bay Press Gazette. Catalina Camia.
  6. Web site: Wisconsin's Feingold to Run for US Senate. May 14, 2015. Associated Press. Bauer. Scott. .
  7. Web site: Wisconsin 2016 Senate Race. OpenSecrets. July 15, 2018.
  8. News: Why Republicans' Senate majority could be very short-lived. The Washington Post. November 7, 2014. November 8, 2014.
  9. News: Here's The Democratic Route Back To Senate Control In 2016. The Huffington Post. November 6, 2014. November 13, 2014.
  10. The Seven Senate Races Democrats Should Be Optimistic About in 2016. Slate. July 3, 2014. November 8, 2014. Weigel. David.
  11. News: The 10 states that could decide the next Senate. Politico. November 12, 2014. November 13, 2014.
  12. News: Tough Tests Looming in 2016 Raise Stakes for G.O.P. in Midterm Elections. The New York Times. April 12, 2014. November 13, 2014.
  13. News: Marquette Law School Poll, March 20-23, 2014. Marquette University Law School. March 2014. November 19, 2014.
  14. Web site: Sen. Ron Johnson says he'll seek re-election in 2016 . March 11, 2013 . September 20, 2013 . JS Online . Lydia . Mulvany.
  15. Web site: Mary Burke says she won't run for statewide office again . November 10, 2014 . November 10, 2014 . Wisconsin State Journal.
  16. Web site: Russ Feingold for Wisconsin - count me in! . May 14, 2015 . May 14, 2015 . Larson . Chris . Facebook.
  17. Web site: Wisconsin Democrat: Russ Feingold Would Clear Primary . Roll Call . Levinson . Alexis . December 12, 2014 . June 2, 2015 . June 1, 2015 . https://web.archive.org/web/20150601140627/http://atr.rollcall.com/elections-2016-russ-feingold-gwen-moore-expects/ . dead .
  18. Web site: Did you see the big news today? . May 14, 2015 . May 14, 2015 . Pocan . Mark . Facebook.
  19. Web site: Phil Anderson declares 2016 candidacy for US Senate in Wisconsin . November 19, 2015 . February 2, 2016 . Libertarian Party.
  20. https://www.c-span.org/video/?415646-1/wisconsin-senate-debate Full debate - C-SPAN
  21. https://www.c-span.org/video/?417087-1/wisconsin-senate-debate Full debate - C-SPAN
  22. Web site: 2016 Senate Race Ratings for November 2, 2016 . The Cook Political Report . March 26, 2021.
  23. Web site: 2016 Senate . Sabato's Crystal Ball . September 19, 2016.
  24. Web site: 2016 Senate Ratings . Senate Ratings . The Rothenberg Political Report . November 3, 2016.
  25. Web site: Daily Kos Election 2016 forecast: The final version . Daily Kos . March 27, 2021.
  26. Web site: Battle for the Senate 2016 . Real Clear Politics . October 28, 2016.
  27. https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxxpEMTW3kArc1RLTFJqQ3JhTTA/view SurveyMonkey
  28. https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxxpEMTW3kArcEwxQXh2M25qSFE/view SurveyMonkey
  29. https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxxpEMTW3kAreE9xVzhyUUNZNGc/view SurveyMonkey
  30. http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/11072016_sen.pdf Clarity Campaign Labs
  31. https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxxpEMTW3kArd1o5cmhoTmVQbDg/view SurveyMonkey
  32. https://cdn.americanprogress.org/content/uploads/sites/2/2016/11/03143856/WIResults112-Final.pdf Public Policy Polling
  33. http://www.loras.edu/news/clinton-maintains-lead-wisconsin-feingold-johnson-tight-race-loras-college-poll-finds/ Loras College
  34. https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxxpEMTW3kArcTNEc0hBTzFlSVE/view SurveyMonkey
  35. https://law.marquette.edu/poll/2016/11/02/mlsp41release/ Marquette University
  36. https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxxpEMTW3kAraEFpRXdFc21TVG8/view SurveyMonkey
  37. http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_136cb97bafca4b36838f08d63a5d1a0c.pdf Emerson College
  38. http://letamericawork.com/ Let America Work
  39. http://www.clubforgrowth.org/election-news/johnson-closing-in-wisconsin-on-strength-of-club-for-growth-action-ad/ Club for Growth
  40. http://endcitizensunited.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/ECU-WI-poll-Oct19.pdf Public Policy Polling
  41. https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_WI_101916/ Monmouth University
  42. http://www.snc.edu/sri/docs/2016/201610_Fall_Senate_Release.pdf Wisconsin Public Radio/St. Norbert College
  43. https://apps.washingtonpost.com/g/page/politics/surveymonkey-15-state-poll/2103/ Washington Post/SurveyMonkey
  44. https://medium.com/@alexanderpower/new-senate-polls-in-iowa-missouri-and-wisconsin-336c7224c30d#.iv3n77xn8 Google Consumer Surveys
  45. https://law.marquette.edu/poll/2016/10/12/press-release-title/ Marquette University
  46. https://www.scribd.com/document/326944222/CBS-News-Battleground-Tracker-Wisconsin-Oct-9-2016 CBS News/YouGov
  47. http://www.loras.edu/news/clinton-ahead-wisconsin-johnson-edge-loras-poll-finds/ Loras College
  48. https://www.scribd.com/document/326778927/Wisconsin-Polling-Oct-5 Breitbart/Gravis Marketing
  49. http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_4b2b9517da414c0fb1c825dfe5416794.pdf Emerson College
  50. https://law.marquette.edu/poll/2016/08/31/new-marquette-law-school-poll-finds-clinton-edge-over-trump-narrowing-to-pre-convention-levels-among-wisconsin-voters/ Marquette University
  51. http://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_WI_083116/ Monmouth University
  52. http://nelpaction.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/WIResults1.pdf Public Policy Polling
  53. https://www.scribd.com/document/322753969/WI-Sen-Pres-GSG-for-LCV-Sept-2016 Global Strategy Group
  54. https://web.archive.org/web/20130602143947/http://letamericawork.com/ Let America Work
  55. https://law.marquette.edu/poll/2016/08/10/new-marquette-law-school-poll-finds/ Marquette University
  56. https://law.marquette.edu/poll/2016/07/13/new-marquette-law-school-poll-finds-clinton-feingold-leading-parties-remain-divided/ Marquette University
  57. https://web.archive.org/web/20160705234435/http://www.americansunitedforchange.org/page/-/WisconsinResults616.pdf Public Policy Polling
  58. http://www.democracycorps.com/attachments/article/1033/Dcorps_WV_BG_06.30.16_for%20release.pdf Greenberg Quinlan Rosner - Democracy Corps
  59. https://law.marquette.edu/poll/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/MLSP35Toplines.pdf Marquette University
  60. https://www.scribd.com/doc/315390860/MoveOn-WI-Senate-Survey-Results Public Policy Polling
  61. http://www.snc.edu/sri/docs/2016/201604wissurvey.pdf Wisconsin Public Radio/St. Norbert College
  62. http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_467ac76d49a447e58bf894d49a8df939.pdf Emerson College
  63. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/WisconsinPrimaryPoll33116.pdf Public Policy Polling
  64. http://www.thonline.com/news/article_6d0ff59b-bc31-5066-bf57-21abd7ceac72.html Loras College
  65. https://law.marquette.edu/poll/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/MLSP34Toplines.pdf Marquette University
  66. https://law.marquette.edu/poll/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/MLSP33Toplines.pdf Marquette University
  67. https://law.marquette.edu/poll/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/MLSP32ToplinesFinal.pdf Marquette University
  68. http://www.wispolitics.com/1006/151202Super.pdf Let America Work
  69. https://law.marquette.edu/poll/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/MLSP31ToplinesFinal.pdf Marquette University
  70. http://www.democracycorps.com/attachments/article/1014/Dcorps_WV_BG_11.9.15_final.pdf Democracy Corps
  71. http://www.wpr.org/poll-feingold-has-11-percent-lead-over-johnson-us-senate-race/ Wisconsin Public Radio/St. Norbert College
  72. https://law.marquette.edu/poll/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/MLSP30ToplinesFinal.pdf Marquette University
  73. http://endcitizensunited.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/WISCONSIN-End-Citizens-United-Poll-Memo-2.pdf End Citizens United
  74. https://law.marquette.edu/poll/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/MLSP29ToplinesFinal.pdf Marquette University
  75. https://law.marquette.edu/poll/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/MLSP28Toplines.pdf Marquette University
  76. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_WI_31115.pdf Public Policy Polling
  77. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/PPP_Release_WI_423.pdf Public Policy Polling
  78. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2013/PPP_Release_WI_919.pdf Public Policy Polling
  79. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_WI_022613.pdf Public Policy Polling
  80. Web site: Wisconsin Elections Results | Wisconsin Elections Commission. April 29, 2018. April 25, 2018. https://web.archive.org/web/20180425185224/http://elections.wi.gov/elections-voting/results. dead.

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