2012 United States Senate election in Washington explained

Election Name:	2012 United States Senate election in Washington
Country:	Washington
Type:	presidential
Ongoing:	no
Previous Election:	2006 United States Senate election in Washington
Previous Year:	2006
Next Election:	2018 United States Senate election in Washington
Next Year:	2018
Election Date:	November 6, 2012
Turnout:	64.1% (voting eligible)^[1]
Image1:	Maria Cantwell, official portrait, 110th Congress 2 (cropped).jpg
Nominee1:	Maria Cantwell
Party1:	Democratic Party (United States)
Popular Vote1:	1,855,493
Percentage1:	60.36%
Nominee2:	Michael Baumgartner
Party2:	Republican Party (United States)
Popular Vote2:	1,213,924
Percentage2:	39.49%
U.S. Senator
Before Election:	Maria Cantwell
Before Party:	Democratic Party (United States)
After Election:	Maria Cantwell
After Party:	Democratic Party (United States)

The 2012 United States Senate election in Washington took place on November 6, 2012, concurrently with the 2012 U.S. presidential election as well as other elections to the United States Senate and House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Maria Cantwell won re-election to a third term by a significant margin, outperforming President Barack Obama's margin in the concurrent presidential election by 6%.

Background

Maria Cantwell won re-election to serve a second term with 56.81% of the vote against Mike McGavick in the 2006 Washingtonian U.S. senatorial election.

Top-two primary election

Candidates

Democratic

• Maria Cantwell, incumbent U.S. Senator^[2]
• Timothy Wilson^[3]

Republican

• Michael Baumgartner, state senator^[4]
• Art Coday, physician^[5]
• Chuck Jackson, merchant mariner^{[6] [7]}
• Mike the Mover, perennial candidate^[6]
• Glen R. Stockwell, president of Washington State Economic Development Corporation^{[6] [8]}

Declined

• Bill Bryant, Port of Seattle Commission President^[9]
• Clint Didier, former NFL football player (endorsed Coday)^[10]
• Doc Hastings, U.S. Representative^[11]
• Jaime Herrera Beutler, U.S. Representative^[12]
• John Koster, Snohomish County Councilman and candidate for the 2nd congressional district in 2010 (running for the U.S. House)^[13]
• Cathy McMorris Rodgers, U.S. Representative^[14]
• Dave Reichert, U.S. Representative^[15]
• Phillip Yin, Hong Kong-based anchor for Bloomberg Television^[16]

Others

• Will Baker (Reform Party)^[6]

Results

General election

Candidates

• Michael Baumgartner (Republican), state senator
• Maria Cantwell (Democratic), incumbent U.S. Senator

Debates

• Complete video of debate, October 12, 2012 - C-SPAN

Fundraising

Candidate (party)	Receipts	Disbursements	Cash on hand	Debt
	Maria Cantwell (D)	$8,032,254	$6,355,260	$2,176,258	$2,171,350
	Michael Baumgartner (R)	$689,690	$422,428	$181,841	$45,689
Source: Federal Election Commission^[17] ^[18]

Top contributors

^[19]

Maria Cantwell	Contribution	Michael Baumgartner	Contribution
Microsoft Corp	$83,982	Anderson Hay & Grain	$5,000
EMILY's List	$77,900	Columbia Management Systems, By Lar	$5,000
Morgan & Morgan	$40,000	Ignition Partners	$5,000
League of Conservation Voters	$39,900	Kvc Development Co	$5,000
University of Washington	$35,900	Acorn Campus Ventures	$4,000
K&L Gates	$35,048	Legacy LLC	$3,523
Boeing Co.	$30,625	Inland Empire Paper	$3,750
Intellectual Ventures LLC	$27,250	Savers Inc	$3,523
McBee Strategic Consulting	$26,650	Red Lion Hotels	$3,500
Second Avenue Partners	$24,500	National Cotton Council	$3,300

Top industries

^[20]

Maria Cantwell	Contribution	Michael Baumgartner	Contribution
Lawyers/law firms	$696,936	Retired	$45,756
Retired	$621,231	Financial institutions	$10,000
Lobbyists	$539,418	Financial institutions	$310,487
Financial institutions	$310,487	Agribusiness	$9,550
Computers/Internet	$206,970	Health professionals	$6,150
Real estate	$179,169	Misc. finance	$4,250
Health professionals	$169,937	Mining	$4,25
Business services	$167,629	Timber/forest products	$3,750
Casinos/gambling	$165,850	General contractors	$3,000
Entertainment industry	$136,457	Real estate	$2,950

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
align=left	The Cook Political Report^[21]		November 1, 2012
align=left	Sabato's Crystal Ball^[22]		November 5, 2012
align=left	Rothenberg Political Report^[23]		November 2, 2012
align=left	Real Clear Politics^[24]		November 5, 2012

Polling

Aggregate polls

Poll source				Maria Cantwell (D)	Michael	Other	Undecided
align=left	Survey USA^[26]	November 21–23, 2011	549	±4.3%		51%	39%	—	10%
align=left	Survey USA^[27]	January 12–16, 2012	617	±4.0%		50%	41%	—	8%
align=left	Public Policy Polling^[28]	February 16–19, 2012	1,264	±2.76%		51%	36%	—	13%
align=left	Public Policy Polling^[29]	June 14–17, 2012	1,073	±3.0%		51%	35%	—	14%
align=left	Survey USA^[30]	July 16–17, 2012	630	±4.0%		51%	40%	—	9%
align=left	Survey USA^[31]	September 7–9, 2012	524	±4.4%		54%	38%	—	8%
align=left	Rasmussen Reports^[32]	September 26, 2012	500	±4.5%		57%	37%	1%	5%
align=left	SurveyUSA^[33]	September 28–30, 2012	540	±4.3%		53%	40%	—	6%
align=left	The Washington Poll^[34]	October 1–16, 2012	782	±3.5%		58%	35%	—	7%
align=left	Rasmussen Reports	October 14, 2012	500	±4.5%		52%	37%	1%	9%
align=left	KCTS 9/Washington Poll^[35]	October 18–31, 2012	632	±3.9%		61%	33%	—	6%
align=left	Public Policy Polling^[36]	November 1–3, 2012	932	±3.2%		57%	39%	—	4%

Poll source				Maria Cantwell (D)	Cathy M. Rodgers (R)	Other	Undecided
align=left	Public Policy Polling^[37]	July 27 – August 1, 2010	1,204	±2.8%		49%	37%	—	13%
align=left	Public Policy Polling^[38]	May 12–15, 2011	1,098	±3.0%		50%	31%	—	19%

Poll source				Maria Cantwell (D)	Dave Reichert (R)	Other	Undecided
align=left	Public Policy Polling	July 27 – August 1, 2010	1,204	±2.8%		47%	41%	—	12%
align=left	Public Policy Polling	May 12–15, 2011	1,098	±3.0%		49%	35%	—	16%
align=left	Survey USA	November 21–23, 2011	549	±4.3%		48%	41%	—	10%

Poll source				Maria Cantwell (D)	Susan Hutchison (R)	Other	Undecided
align=left	Public Policy Polling	May 12–15, 2011	1,098	±3.0%		49%	35%	—	16%
align=left	Survey USA	November 21–23, 2011	549	±4.3%		49%	38%	—	13%

Poll source				Maria Cantwell (D)	Dino Rossi (R)	Other	Undecided
align=left	Public Policy Polling	May 12–15, 2011	1,098	±3.0%		53%	40%	—	8%
align=left	Public Policy Polling	February 16–19, 2012	1,264	±2.76%		53%	41%	—	7%

Results

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

• Yakima (largest city: Yakima)

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

• Asotin (largest city: Clarkston)
• Spokane (largest city: Spokane)
• Whitman (largest city: Pullman)

By congressional district

Cantwell won 8 of 10 congressional districts, including two that elected Republicans.^[39]

District	Cantwell	Baumgartner	Representative
		57%	43%		Suzan DelBene
		63%	37%		Rick Larsen
		53%	47%		Jaime Herrera Beutler
		45%	55%		Doc Hastings
		48%	52%		Cathy McMorris Rodgers
		61%	39%		Derek Kilmer
		82%	18%		Jim McDermott
		55%	45%		Dave Reichert
		72%	28%		Adam Smith
		61%	39%		Denny Heck

See also

• 2012 United States Senate elections
• 2012 United States House of Representatives elections in Washington
• 2012 United States presidential election in Washington
• 2012 Washington gubernatorial election

External links

• Elections & Voting at the Washington Secretary of State office
• Campaign contributions at OpenSecrets.org
• Outside spending at Sunlight Foundation
• Candidate issue positions at On the Issues

Official campaign websites (archived)

• Maria Cantwell
• Michael Baumgartner
• Art Coday

Notes and References

1. Web site: 2012 General Election Turnout Rates . . Dr. Michael McDonald . February 9, 2013 . April 6, 2013 . https://web.archive.org/web/20130424003112/http://elections.gmu.edu/Turnout_2012G.html . April 24, 2013 . dead . mdy-all .
2. Web site: Washington state's Cantwell not looking ahead to 2012 -- yet. November 21, 2010. December 9, 2010. McClatchy Newspapers. Les. Blumenthal. https://web.archive.org/web/20121119031536/http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2010/11/21/104061/washington-states-cantwell-not.html. November 19, 2012. dead.
3. Web site: timwilsonforsenate.org - timwilsonforsenate Resources and Information. . September 1, 2019 . https://web.archive.org/web/20160113041153/http://timwilsonforsenate.org/ . January 13, 2016 . dead .
4. Web site: Makupfront: Up Front With Robert Mak . October 2, 2011 . https://web.archive.org/web/20120425015057/http://makupfront.tumblr.com/post/10860916907/republican-michael-baumgartner-to-run-against . April 25, 2012 . dead .
5. Web site: U.S. Senate race: Cantwell has $4 million in bank. January 30, 2012. February 24, 2012. The Spokesman-Review. Jim. Camden.
6. Web site: 2012 Candidates Appearing in the Primary. Secretary of State of Washington. August 1, 2012.
7. Web site: Candidate Statement. Secretary of State of Washington. August 1, 2012.
8. Web site: Corporation Registration Detail. Secretary of State of Washington. August 1, 2012.
9. News: Port Commission President Bill Bryant Will Not Challenge Cantwell for U.S. Senate. NW Daily Marker. Bryan. Myrick. March 12, 2012.
10. Web site: Endorsements - Art Coday for US Senate, Washington 2012 . March 25, 2012 . https://web.archive.org/web/20120323093827/http://artcoday.com/endorsements.html . March 23, 2012 . dead .
11. Web site: Doc Hastings rules out reform. February 24, 2012. February 24, 2012. Yakima Herald-Republic. Tri-City Herald. Mike. Faulk. https://web.archive.org/web/20120418022133/http://www.tri-cityherald.com/2012/02/24/1838866/doc-hastings-rules-out-reform.html. April 18, 2012. dead.
12. Web site: Congresswoman talks town halls, confirms re-election bid. January 16, 2012. February 24, 2012. The Columbian. Stevie. Mathieu.
13. Web site: John Koster officially files to unseat Rep. Rick Larsen Politics Everett News . August 6, 2011 . https://web.archive.org/web/20120402132405/http://everett.komonews.com/news/politics/john-koster-officially-files-unseat-rep-rick-larsen/648239 . April 2, 2012 . dead .
14. Web site: McMorris Rodgers starting 2012 campaign. March 17, 2011. February 24, 2012. The Spokesman-Review. Jim. Camden. Jonathan. Brunt.
15. News: Reichert won't challenge Cantwell for U.S. Senate seat . The Seattle Times . Jim . Brunner . February 2, 2012.
16. News: GOP Senate hopeful drops out of race. October 26, 2011. December 14, 2011. KING 5 News. Robert. Mak. https://web.archive.org/web/20120211114105/http://www.king5.com/home/GOP-Senate-hopeful-bows-out-of-race-132672318.html. February 11, 2012. dead.
17. https://web.archive.org/web/20110421070013/http://fec.gov/disclosurehs/HSCandDetail.do Maria Cantwell Campaign Finances
18. https://web.archive.org/web/20110421070013/http://fec.gov/disclosurehs/HSCandDetail.do Michael Baumgartner Campaign Finances
19. http://www.opensecrets.org/races/contrib.php?cycle=2012&id=WAS1 OpenSecrets
20. http://www.opensecrets.org/races/indus.php?cycle=2012&id=WAS1|Top Donors by Industry (opensecrets.org)
21. Web site: 2012 Senate Race Ratings for November 1, 2012 . The Cook Political Report . September 20, 2018 . August 29, 2018 . https://web.archive.org/web/20180829035855/https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/senate-race-ratings/139117 . dead .
22. Web site: 2012 Senate . Sabato's Crystal Ball . September 20, 2018.
23. Web site: 2012 Senate Ratings . Senate Ratings . The Rothenberg Political Report . September 20, 2018.
24. Web site: 2012 Elections Map - Battle for the Senate 2012 . Real Clear Politics . September 20, 2018.
25. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/senate/wa/washington_senate_baumgartner_vs_cantwell-3012.html Real Clear Politics
26. http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=baa19978-df0f-4904-827b-65df44d845fb Survey USA
27. http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=3e569851-5364-447f-84cf-4bc6ac6bf688 Survey USA
28. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_WA_0224.pdf Public Policy Polling
29. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_WA_062012.pdf Public Policy Polling
30. http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=2786ebbd-3348-4795-b0a8-0ee124a9707d Survey USA
31. http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=07b89034-43b1-4d60-8d0f-2982bd314434 Survey USA
32. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_senate_elections/washington/election_2012_washington_senate Rasmussen Reports
33. https://web.archive.org/web/20130217181256/http://www.king5.com/news/politics/KING-5-poll-poll-majority-support-gay-marriage-marijuana--172885681.html SurveyUSA
34. https://web.archive.org/web/20121025111411/http://www.washingtonpoll.org/results/kcts9wapoll_oct18.pdf The Washington Poll
35. https://web.archive.org/web/20140318055359/http://kcts9.org/sites/default/files/kcts9wapoll_oct31.pdf KCTS 9/Washington Poll
36. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_WA_1103.pdf Public Policy Polling
37. https://web.archive.org/web/20110504105333/http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_WA_805.pdf Public Policy Polling
38. https://web.archive.org/web/20110518165849/http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_WA_05171025.pdf Public Policy Polling
39. Results . sos.wa.gov . live . https://web.archive.org/web/20240520225024/https://www.sos.wa.gov/sites/default/files/2022-05/2012-general-data2.zip . 2024-05-20.