2018 United States Senate election in Texas explained

Election Name:2018 United States Senate election in Texas
Country:Texas
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2012 United States Senate election in Texas
Previous Year:2012
Next Election:2024 United States Senate election in Texas
Next Year:2024
Election Date:November 6, 2018
Turnout:53.01% (of registered voters)
42.07% (of voting age population)[1]
Image1:File:Ted Cruz official 116th portrait (cropped).jpg
Nominee1:Ted Cruz
Party1:Republican Party (United States)
Popular Vote1:4,260,553
Percentage1:50.89%
Nominee2:Beto O'Rourke
Party2:Democratic Party (United States)
Popular Vote2:4,045,632
Percentage2:48.33%
U.S. Senator
Before Election:Ted Cruz
Before Party:Republican Party (United States)
After Election:Ted Cruz
After Party:Republican Party (United States)
Map Size:310px

The 2018 United States Senate election in Texas was held on November 6, 2018, along with other elections to the United States Senate and elections to the United States House of Representatives in additional states. Incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Ted Cruz won re-election to a second term, defeating Democratic candidate Beto O'Rourke. The primary for all parties was held on March 6, 2018, making it the first primary of the 2018 season.[2] As Cruz and O'Rourke both won majorities in their primaries, they did not participate in the May 22 runoff primary that was held for some nominations in Texas.[3]

No Democrat has won a general election for statewide office in Texas since Bob Bullock was reelected as lieutenant governor in 1994, with election forecasters declaring it a safe Republican seat at the beginning of the 2018 cycle.[4] However, O'Rourke gradually closed the gap,[5] and leading up to the election, the race was considered unexpectedly competitive.[6]

On Election Day, Cruz defeated O'Rourke[7] by a margin just short of 215,000 votes, or 2.6 percent; the race was the closest U.S. Senate race in Texas since 1978.[8]

Background

See main article: Politics of Texas. In 2012, after a stunning upset victory in the Republican primary, then-Solicitor General of Texas Ted Cruz defeated former member of the Texas House of Representatives Paul Sadler by a 16-point margin (56%–40%). Texas has not elected a Democratic senator since 1988. As conservatives began turning to the Republican Party in once strongly Democratic areas, Democratic voters in the state were largely based in the majority-Hispanic communities in Southern Texas and in populous metropolitan cities, such as Houston, Austin, San Antonio, and Dallas, as well as the heavily Hispanic city of El Paso on the state's western tip, which O'Rourke represented in the U.S. House.

Since 1990, Texas has voted for Republican statewide candidates in all elections, whether it be presidential, gubernatorial, or senatorial, often by large margins. In 1998, Governor George W. Bush won re-election by 37 points over his Democratic challenger, Garry Mauro. In 2000, Governor Bush won Texas by 21 points over Vice President Al Gore. In 2004, President Bush won Texas over Senator John Kerry by 23 points, winning rural areas by landslide margins, capturing urban zones, and coming very close to winning the Latino vote (49% to Kerry's 50%). Democrat Barack Obama was defeated by margins of 12 points in 2008, against John McCain, and 16 points in 2012, against Mitt Romney, respectively. However, in 2016, Donald Trump defeated Democrat Hillary Clinton by only a 9-point margin, demonstrating a possible shift away from the Safe Republican status it had held for over a decade. This has led Democrats to begin targeting Texas as a potential future swing state. It should also be noted that Ted Cruz defeated Donald Trump in the Texas Republican primary for U.S. president in 2016.

As of June 2018, Senator Cruz held a 49%–44% approval rating among Texans in a state Donald Trump won by 9 points against Hillary Clinton in 2016. Among groups that tend to affiliate themselves more with the Democratic Party, Senator Cruz held a 29% approval rating among Hispanics, 37% among women, and 42% among college-educated voters.[9]

Republican primary

Election Name:2018 Texas Republican Senate primary
Country:Texas
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2012_United_States_Senate_election_in_Texas#Republican_primary
Previous Year:2012
Next Election:2024_United_States_Senate_election_in_Texas#Republican_primary
Next Year:2024
Image1:Ted Cruz official 116th portrait (cropped).jpg
Candidate1:Ted Cruz
Popular Vote1:1,322,724
Percentage1:85.4%
Color1:D72F30
Candidate2:Mary Miller
Popular Vote2:94,715
Percentage2:6.1%
Color2:FF9A50
Map Size:275px

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Failed to qualify

Withdrew

Declined

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Ted
Cruz		Stefano
de Stefano		Bruce
Jacobson		Mary
Miller		Geraldine
Sam		Undecided
Dixie Strategies[26] February 22–23, 2018–± 4.7% align="center"73%1%2%2%1%21%
University of Texas[27] February 1–12, 2018612± 5.3% align="center"91%1%3%3%2%–
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Ted
Cruz		Michael
McCaul		OtherUndecided
Dixie Strategies[28] September 29 – October 1, 2016321± 3.5% align=center52%12%7% align=center29%
Public Policy Polling[29] August 12–14, 2016522– align=center51%19%– align=center31%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Ted
Cruz		Dan
Patrick		OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingAugust 12–14, 2016522– align=center49%27%–24%
Dixie StrategiesAugust 8–9, 2016448– align=center38%23%15%24%

Results

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Declined

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Sema
Hernandez		Edward
Kimbrough		Beto
O'Rourke		Undecided
Dixie StrategiesFebruary 22–23, 2018 –± 5.7%6%4% align="center"38% align="center"53%
University of TexasFebruary 1–12, 2018453± 7.4%19%8% align="center"73%–

Results

Libertarian nomination

Candidates

Nominated

Independents

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Notes

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[47] October 26, 2018
Inside Elections[48] November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[49] November 5, 2018
CNN[50] October 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics[51] November 5, 2018
Daily Kos[52] October 5, 2018
Fox News[53] October 30, 2018
Notes

Debates

Fundraising

In the third quarter of 2018, O'Rourke raised $38.1 million. This amount was the largest quarterly total raised by a U.S. Senate candidate[54] until Jaime Harrison raised $57 million in the third quarter of 2020 in the South Carolina election.[55] Cruz and O'Rourke combined to raise a record-setting total of $126 million during the 2018 campaign.[56]

Campaign finance reports as of December 31, 2018
Candidate (party)Total receiptsTotal disbursementsCash on hand
Ted Cruz (R) align="right" $45,668,718 align="right" $45,990,176 align="right" $157,959
Beto O'Rourke (D) align="right" $80,344,836 align="right" $80,458,720 align="right" $284,816
Neal Dikeman (L) align="right" $33,732 align="right" $33,398 align="right" $333
Source: Federal Election Commission[57]

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Ted
Cruz (R)		Beto
O'Rourke (D)		Neal
Dikeman (L)		OtherUndecided
Trafalgar Group (R)[58] November 3–5, 20182,135± 2.1% align=center52%43%–1%4%
Change Research (D-Reason to Believe PAC)[59] November 1–2, 20181,211–49%49%1%––
Emerson College[60] October 28–30, 2018781± 3.7% align=center50%47%1%–2%
Quinnipiac University[61] October 22–28, 20181,078± 3.5% align=center51%46%–1%3%
University of Texas Tyler[62] October 15–28, 2018905 LV– align=center47%43%–4%6%
1,033 RV± 3.0% align=center47%42%–4%8%
Dixie Strategies[63] October 25–26, 2018588± 4.0% align=center52%42%––5%
GBA Strategies (D-End Citizens United)[64] October 18–21, 20181,000± 4.0% align=center50%46%2%–2%
University of Texas/YouGov[65] October 15–21, 2018927± 3.2% align=center51%45%2%2%–
Ipsos[66] October 12–18, 20181,298± 3.2% align=center49%44%–3%1%
Tulchin Research (D-MoveOn)[67] October 10–14, 2018600± 4.0% align=center49%45%3%–3%
CNN/SSRS[68] October 9–13, 2018716 LV± 4.5% align=center52%45%–0%2%
862 RV± 4.1% align=center50%45%–0%3%
WPA Intelligence (R-Club for Growth)[69] October 8–13, 2018801± 3.5% align=center52%43%1%–4%
NYT Upshot/Siena College[70] October 8–11, 2018800± 3.6% align=center51%43%1%–5%
Quinnipiac University[71] October 3–9, 2018730± 4.4% align=center54%45%–0%2%
YouGov[72] October 2–5, 2018881– align=center50%44%–2%4%
Emerson College[73] October 1–5, 2018500± 4.5% align=center47%42%–3%8%
Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care)[74] September 19–20, 2018613± 4.0% align=center48%45%––8%
Public Policy Polling (D-End Citizens United)[75] September 19–20, 2018603± 4.0% align=center49%46%––5%
Vox Populi Polling[76] September 16–18, 2018508± 4.4%50%50%–––
Quinnipiac University[77] September 11–17, 2018807± 4.1% align=center54%45%–0%1%
Chism Strategies (D-Reform Austin)[78] September 11–12, 20181,161± 3.0% align=center49%45%––5%
Ipsos[79] September 6–14, 2018992± 4.0%45% align=center47%–3%5%
Crosswind Media & Public Relations[80] September 6–9, 2018800± 4.0% align=center47%44%–––
Dixie Strategies[81] September 6–7, 2018519± 4.3% align=center46%42%1%–11%
Emerson College[82] August 22–25, 2018550± 4.4% align=center38%37%–4%21%
NBC News/Marist[83] August 12–16, 2018759± 3.8% align=center49%45%–1%6%
Civiqs[84] August 8–11, 2018––47% align=center48%–––
Public Policy Polling (D-End Citizens United)[85] August 1–2, 2018797± 3.5% align=center46%42%–––
Quinnipiac University[86] July 26–31, 20181,118± 3.5% align=center49%43%–0%6%
Texas Lyceum[87] July 9–26, 2018441 LV± 4.7% align=center41%39%1%–19%
806 RV± 3.5% align=center36%34%3%–24%
Gravis Marketing[88] July 3–7, 2018602± 4.0% align=center51%42%––7%
YouGov[89] June 19–22, 2018821 LV– align=center50%40%–3%7%
1,025 RV± 3.6% align=center44%36%–3%13%
University of Texas/YouGov[90] June 8–17, 20181,200± 2.8% align=center41%36%2%3%17%
GQR Research (D-End Citizens United)[91] May 29 – June 5, 20181,000± 3.1% align=center49%43%––8%
Quinnipiac University[92] May 23–29, 2018961± 3.8% align=center50%39%–0%9%
Baselice & Associates (R-TLRPAC)[93] May 21–28, 2018601± 4.1% align=center48%36%3%1%11%
Public Policy Polling (D-Giffords)[94] May 21–22, 2018861± 3.3% align=center48%42%––10%
JMC Analytics (R-Red Metrics Group)[95] May 19–21, 2018575± 4.1% align=center47%40%–6%[96] 7%
Quinnipiac University[97] April 12–17, 20181,029± 3.6% align=center47%44%–1%8%
Public Policy Polling (D-End Citizens United)[98] January 17–18, 2018757± 3.6% align=center45%37%––18%
WPA Intelligence (R-Cruz)[99] December 12–14, 2017600± 4.0% align=center52%34%–1%13%
Texas Lyceum[100] April 3–9, 20171,000± 3.1%30%30%–3% align=center37%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Ted
Cruz (R)		Joaquin
Castro (D)		OtherUndecided
Texas LyceumApril 3–9, 20171,000± 3.1%31% align=center35%3%31%
Public Policy PollingAugust 12–14, 2016944± 3.2% align=center48%36%–16%
Dixie StrategiesAugust 8–9, 20161,018± 3.1% align=center32%31%14%23%

Results

On November 6, 2018, Ted Cruz defeated Beto O'Rourke. However, O'Rourke performed unexpectedly well, outperforming pre-election polling.[101] In addition, O'Rourke flipped numerous counties that Donald Trump carried in 2016, including Williamson (includes Round Rock and Georgetown), historically conservative Tarrant (includes Fort Worth and suburbs within the DFW metroplex), Jefferson (includes Beaumont and Port Arthur), Nueces (includes Corpus Christi), sparsely populated Brewster (includes Big Bend National Park), and Hays (includes San Marcos). Cruz won only one county that voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016, sparsely populated Kenedy (coastal region south of Corpus Christi).

By county

Legend
Counties won by Cruz
Counties won by O'Rourke
2018 U.S. Senate election results by Texas county
CountyCruz
Republican		O'Rourke
Democratic		Dikeman
Libertarian		MarginTotal
votes
data-sort-type="number" style="padding-left:0.2em" Votesdata-sort-type="number" %data-sort-type="number" style="padding-left:0.2em" Votesdata-sort-type="number" %data-sort-type="number" style="padding-left:0.2em" Votesdata-sort-type="number" %data-sort-type="number" style="padding-left:0.2em" Votesdata-sort-type="number" %
Anderson11,33576.92%3,30722.44%940.64%8,02854.48%14,736
Andrews3,33880.80%77618.78%170.41%2,56262.02%4,131
Angelina19,16672.46%7,13026.96%1530.58%12,03645.51%26,449
Aransas6,67774.35%2,24725.02%560.62%4,43049.33%8,980
Archer3,20889.06%37610.44%180.50%2,83278.62%3,602
Armstrong81991.10%748.23%60.67%74582.87%899
Atascosa7,75363.53%4,33235.50%1190.98%3,42128.03%12,204
Austin8,72278.95%2,24120.29%840.76%6,48158.67%11,047
Bailey1,20474.50%40525.06%70.43%79949.44%1,616
Bandera7,64379.75%1,86519.46%760.79%5,77860.29%9,584
Bastrop15,06754.87%12,08244.00%3121.14%2,98510.87%27,461
Baylor1,07086.64%15612.63%90.73%91474.01%1,235
Bee4,34260.16%2,81138.95%640.89%1,53121.21%7,217
Bell47,43754.79%38,41744.37%7230.84%9,02010.42%86,577
Bexar217,60039.59%326,94659.49%5,0240.91%109,34619.90%549,570
Blanco4,18171.99%1,57027.03%570.98%2,61144.96%5,808
Borden32093.29%226.41%10.29%29886.88%343
Bosque5,71879.92%1,37419.20%630.88%4,34460.71%7,155
Bowie20,15771.17%7,98228.18%1820.64%12,17542.99%28,321
Brazoria65,69358.78%45,22840.47%8320.74%20,46518.31%111,753
Brazos35,97155.78%27,87643.23%6400.99%8,09512.55%64,487
Brewster1,87945.99%2,14752.55%601.47%2686.56%4,086
Briscoe55388.62%6911.06%20.32%48477.56%624
Brooks54328.24%1,37671.55%40.21%83343.32%1,923
Brown10,39185.65%1,67013.77%710.59%8,72171.88%12,132
Burleson5,07977.53%1,42721.78%450.69%3,65255.75%6,551
Burnet13,85974.95%4,44424.03%1871.01%9,41550.92%18,490
Caldwell6,14753.54%5,22745.53%1070.93%9208.01%11,481
Calhoun4,19868.61%1,87430.63%470.77%2,32437.98%6,119
Callahan4,37387.06%61012.14%400.80%3,76374.92%5,023
Cameron28,57436.67%48,77062.60%5680.73%20,19625.92%77,912
Camp2,74970.63%1,11928.75%240.62%1,63041.88%3,892
Carson2,19289.14%2459.96%220.89%1,94779.18%2,459
Cass8,14879.75%2,02419.81%450.44%6,12459.94%10,217
Castro1,21975.11%39424.28%100.62%82550.83%1,623
Chambers12,14680.01%2,92619.27%1090.72%9,22060.73%15,181
Cherokee11,63177.85%3,20721.46%1030.69%8,42456.38%14,941
Childress1,52686.21%23613.33%80.45%1,29072.88%1,770
Clay3,71086.52%54712.76%310.72%3,16373.76%4,288
Cochran54178.86%14020.41%50.73%40158.45%686
Coke1,15088.67%13710.56%100.77%1,01378.10%1,297
Coleman2,75988.26%35111.23%160.51%2,40877.03%3,126
Collin187,24552.63%165,61446.55%2,9270.82%21,6316.08%355,786
Collingsworth81087.28%11312.18%50.54%69775.11%928
Colorado5,77975.67%1,82523.90%330.43%3,95451.77%7,637
Comal44,07971.68%16,83027.37%5860.95%27,24944.31%61,495
Comanche3,79982.41%78116.94%300.65%3,01865.47%4,610
Concho80381.94%16316.63%141.43%64065.31%980
Cooke11,87981.70%2,55017.54%1110.76%9,32964.16%14,540
Coryell10,62666.99%5,06731.94%1701.07%5,55935.04%15,863
Cottle45882.23%9717.41%20.36%36164.81%557
Crane83679.24%21320.19%60.57%62359.05%1,055
Crockett92872.73%34026.65%80.63%58846.08%1,276
Crosby97868.78%43730.73%70.49%54138.05%1,422
Culberson29735.91%52163.00%91.09%22427.09%827
Dallam97087.00%13912.47%60.54%83174.53%1,115
Dallas241,12633.13%481,39566.14%5,3680.74%240,26933.01%727,889
Dawson2,19272.70%81126.90%120.40%1,38145.80%3,015
Deaf Smith2,68070.99%1,06728.26%280.74%1,61342.73%3,775
Delta1,56280.85%35418.32%160.83%1,20862.53%1,932
Denton158,74453.67%134,64945.52%2,4090.81%24,0958.15%295,802
Dewitt4,97481.13%1,12818.40%290.47%3,84662.73%6,131
Dickens63584.22%11314.99%60.80%52269.23%754
Dimmit84029.03%2,04270.56%120.41%1,20241.53%2,894
Donley1,11086.79%16112.59%80.63%94974.20%1,279
Duval1,33032.34%2,76567.23%180.44%1,43534.89%4,113
Eastland5,37786.66%80012.89%280.45%4,57773.76%6,205
Ector20,99668.90%9,23030.29%2480.81%11,76638.61%30,474
Edwards60479.79%14519.15%81.06%45960.63%757
Ellis41,02267.71%19,10631.53%4610.76%21,91636.17%60,589
El Paso50,94325.02%151,48274.40%1,1890.58%100,53949.38%203,614
Erath10,05579.64%2,48619.69%840.66%7,56959.95%12,625
Falls3,21568.70%1,44530.88%200.43%1,77037.82%4,680
Fannin8,56979.71%2,10719.60%740.69%6,46260.11%10,750
Fayette8,22878.52%2,19820.98%530.51%6,03057.54%10,479
Fisher1,13976.24%34022.76%151.00%79953.48%1,494
Floyd1,39474.19%47625.33%90.48%91848.86%1,879
Foard32173.79%11325.98%10.23%20847.82%435
Fort Bend111,42343.62%142,39955.75%1,6160.63%30,97612.13%255,438
Franklin3,30083.04%63916.08%350.88%2,66166.96%3,974
Freestone5,24379.90%1,27919.49%400.61%3,96460.41%6,562
Frio1,63644.46%2,01654.78%280.76%38010.33%3,680
Gaines3,31786.18%51313.33%190.49%2,80472.85%3,849
Galveston67,64159.53%45,06539.66%9160.81%22,57619.87%113,622
Garza1,06882.98%20315.77%161.24%86567.21%1,287
Gillespie9,89078.85%2,57220.51%810.65%7,31858.34%12,543
Glasscock51392.60%376.68%40.72%47685.92%554
Goliad2,32675.72%71723.34%290.94%1,60952.38%3,072
Gonzales4,17374.19%1,42125.26%310.55%2,75248.92%5,625
Gray5,24688.90%61510.42%400.68%4,63178.48%5,901
Grayson31,65573.37%11,15725.86%3320.77%20,49847.51%43,144
Gregg24,56968.37%11,13330.98%2340.65%13,43637.39%35,936
Grimes6,49975.51%2,03723.67%710.82%4,46251.84%8,607
Guadalupe33,93862.19%20,07936.79%5541.02%13,85925.40%54,571
Hale5,36072.51%1,97026.65%620.84%3,39045.86%7,392
Hall80783.11%16116.58%30.31%64666.53%971
Hamilton2,79583.93%50715.23%280.84%2,28868.71%3,330
Hansford1,55290.76%1388.07%201.17%1,41482.69%1,710
Hardeman97383.73%18515.92%40.34%78867.81%1,162
Hardin17,39186.53%2,63613.12%710.35%14,75573.42%20,098
Harris498,90241.31%700,20057.98%8,6520.72%201,29816.67%1,207,754
Harrison16,22671.82%6,24527.64%1220.54%9,98144.18%22,593
Hartley1,46790.33%1539.42%40.25%1,31480.91%1,624
Haskell1,36281.36%30218.04%100.60%1,06063.32%1,674
Hays33,30841.77%45,58457.16%8541.07%12,27615.39%79,746
Hemphill1,20987.93%15711.42%90.65%1,05276.51%1,375
Henderson20,89178.80%5,41520.43%2050.77%15,47658.38%26,511
Hidalgo46,50530.64%104,41668.81%8340.55%57,91138.16%151,755
Hill8,92778.08%2,44321.37%630.55%6,48456.71%11,433
Hockley4,84479.49%1,21119.87%390.64%3,63359.62%6,094
Hood20,09080.34%4,72018.88%1950.78%15,37061.47%25,005
Hopkins9,30678.07%2,54521.35%690.58%6,76156.72%11,920
Houston5,55275.43%1,77224.08%360.49%3,78051.36%7,360
Howard5,65176.32%1,69322.87%600.81%3,95853.46%7,404
Hudspeth50954.56%40743.62%171.82%10210.93%933
Hunt21,11574.12%7,15125.10%2220.78%13,96449.02%28,488
Hutchinson5,85488.14%75311.34%350.53%5,10176.80%6,642
Irion63686.18%9613.01%60.81%54073.17%738
Jack2,49888.80%29610.52%190.68%2,20278.28%2,813
Jackson3,99182.46%83217.19%170.35%3,15965.27%4,840
Jasper9,50480.32%2,28219.29%470.40%7,22261.03%11,833
Jeff Davis68358.03%46639.59%282.38%21718.44%1,177
Jefferson36,73149.48%37,12850.01%3800.51%3970.53%74,239
Jim Hogg41027.74%1,06071.72%80.54%65043.98%1,478
Jim Wells4,52045.66%5,33153.85%490.49%8118.19%9,900
Johnson39,57175.47%12,41123.67%4540.87%27,16051.80%52,436
Jones4,11582.56%83216.69%370.74%3,28365.87%4,984
Karnes2,90070.12%1,20329.09%330.80%1,69741.03%4,136
Kaufman26,11868.07%12,00231.28%2520.66%14,11636.79%38,372
Kendall15,29277.25%4,34021.92%1640.83%10,95255.32%19,796
Kenedy10055.56%7742.78%31.67%2312.78%180
Kent28885.46%4413.06%51.48%24472.40%337
Kerr16,82275.76%5,19823.41%1850.83%11,62452.35%22,205
Kimble1,49587.73%19511.44%140.82%1,30076.29%1,704
King12494.66%64.58%10.76%11890.08%131
Kinney82768.97%35829.86%141.17%46939.12%1,199
Kleberg4,08147.48%4,45651.84%590.69%3754.36%8,596
Knox85578.23%22920.95%90.82%62657.27%1,093
Lamar12,71176.72%3,73122.52%1260.76%8,98054.20%16,568
Lamb2,74179.29%69920.22%170.49%2,04259.07%3,457
Lampasas5,83678.13%1,56921.00%650.87%4,26757.12%7,470
La Salle67345.20%81354.60%30.20%1409.40%1,489
Lavaca6,68886.44%1,01913.17%300.39%5,66973.27%7,737
Lee4,48776.74%1,32222.61%380.65%3,16554.13%5,847
Leon5,71186.67%85512.98%230.35%4,85673.70%6,589
Liberty16,04177.96%4,42121.49%1140.55%11,62056.47%20,576
Limestone5,21175.35%1,67224.18%330.48%3,53951.17%6,916
Lipscomb94288.28%11610.87%90.84%82677.41%1,067
Live Oak3,02982.96%60116.46%210.58%2,42866.50%3,651
Llano7,95478.33%2,12420.92%760.75%5,83057.42%10,154
Loving4787.04%611.11%11.85%4175.93%54
Lubbock58,78064.19%32,06835.02%7310.80%26,71229.17%91,579
Lynn1,36980.67%32319.03%50.29%1,04661.64%1,697
McCulloch2,24584.05%40014.98%260.97%1,84569.08%2,671
McLennan45,85561.24%28,45238.00%5680.76%17,40323.24%74,875
McMullen38790.00%419.53%20.47%34680.47%430
Madison3,03379.17%78020.36%180.47%2,25358.81%3,831
Marion2,44870.00%1,01829.11%310.89%1,43040.89%3,497
Martin1,29783.46%24315.64%140.90%1,05467.82%1,554
Mason1,56079.31%40220.44%50.25%1,15858.87%1,967
Matagorda7,33070.10%3,04929.16%780.75%4,28140.94%10,457
Maverick2,95127.38%7,72771.71%980.91%4,77644.32%10,776
Medina11,44470.73%4,62128.56%1140.70%6,82342.17%16,179
Menard63280.72%14518.52%60.77%48762.20%783
Midland32,86776.51%9,72322.64%3650.85%23,14453.88%42,955
Milam5,92274.15%1,99725.00%680.85%3,92549.14%7,987
Mills1,76488.02%22911.43%110.55%1,53576.60%2,004
Mitchell1,58582.85%32316.88%50.26%1,26265.97%1,913
Montague6,42486.57%94112.68%560.75%5,48373.88%7,421
Montgomery137,39572.28%51,26826.97%1,4330.75%86,12745.31%190,096
Moore3,24880.00%78719.38%250.62%2,46160.62%4,060
Morris2,95369.74%1,26029.76%210.50%1,69339.99%4,234
Motley48391.65%407.59%40.76%44384.06%527
Nacogdoches13,77563.68%7,73235.74%1260.58%6,04327.93%21,633
Navarro10,39172.08%3,91827.18%1070.74%6,47344.90%14,416
Newton3,66078.27%99321.24%230.49%2,66757.04%4,676
Nolan3,12076.58%92822.78%260.64%2,19253.80%4,074
Nueces45,95648.85%47,39250.38%7190.76%1,4361.53%94,067
Ochiltree2,16089.44%2309.52%251.04%1,93079.92%2,415
Oldham73289.71%8210.05%20.25%65079.66%816
Orange21,16480.37%5,05019.18%1180.45%16,11461.20%26,332
Palo Pinto7,54780.03%1,83719.48%460.49%5,71060.55%9,430
Panola7,12081.38%1,59818.26%310.35%5,52263.12%8,749
Parker44,07180.87%9,95618.27%4680.86%34,11562.60%54,495
Parmer1,67581.43%37218.08%100.49%1,30363.34%2,057
Pecos2,16161.39%1,33938.04%200.57%82223.35%3,520
Polk12,79476.38%3,85022.99%1060.63%8,94453.40%16,750
Potter16,68968.33%7,52130.79%2140.88%9,16837.54%24,424
Presidio43626.15%1,22173.25%100.60%78547.09%1,667
Rains3,70284.02%68115.46%230.52%3,02168.57%4,406
Randall38,47979.41%9,61319.84%3630.75%28,86659.57%48,455
Reagan69282.97%13616.31%60.72%55666.67%834
Real1,31183.82%24515.66%80.51%1,06668.16%1,564
Red River3,42777.57%97322.02%180.41%2,45455.55%4,418
Reeves1,12847.04%1,25552.34%150.63%1275.30%2,398
Refugio1,63665.65%84733.99%90.36%78931.66%2,492
Roberts44195.87%194.13%00.00%42291.74%460
Robertson4,29568.52%1,94230.98%310.49%2,35337.54%6,268
Rockwall26,61568.77%11,75430.37%3300.85%14,86138.40%38,699
Runnels2,84287.88%38511.90%70.22%2,45775.97%3,234
Rusk12,59777.37%3,60922.17%760.47%8,98855.20%16,282
Sabine3,45687.12%49612.50%150.38%2,96074.62%3,967
San Augustine2,26675.13%73424.34%160.53%1,53250.80%3,016
San Jacinto7,49980.30%1,78519.11%550.59%5,71461.18%9,339
San Patricio11,33562.22%6,77737.20%1070.59%4,55825.02%18,219
San Saba1,81187.53%24711.94%110.53%1,56475.59%2,069
Schleicher73577.21%20921.95%80.84%52655.25%952
Scurry3,70584.92%64214.71%160.37%3,06370.20%4,363
Shackelford1,17491.65%1038.04%40.31%1,07183.61%1,281
Shelby6,00879.46%1,52120.12%320.42%4,48759.34%7,561
Sherman69284.18%8710.58%435.23%60573.60%822
Smith53,76069.46%23,18229.95%4580.59%30,57839.51%77,400
Somervell3,03382.17%63317.15%250.68%2,40065.02%3,691
Starr2,44322.65%8,27376.72%680.63%5,83054.06%10,784
Stephens2,63188.65%32410.92%130.44%2,30777.73%2,968
Sterling44290.95%449.05%00.00%39881.89%486
Stonewall49780.94%11218.24%50.81%38562.70%614
Sutton93477.45%26521.97%70.58%66955.47%1,206
Swisher1,46177.10%42022.16%140.74%1,04154.93%1,895
Tarrant309,18949.24%313,49749.93%5,2080.83%4,3080.69%627,894
Taylor29,81173.32%10,48925.80%3570.88%19,32247.52%40,657
Terrell32369.16%13929.76%51.07%18439.40%467
Terry2,16977.11%62922.36%150.53%1,54054.75%2,813
Throckmorton61787.77%7710.95%91.28%54076.81%703
Titus5,68571.02%2,26528.29%550.69%3,42042.72%8,005
Tom Green24,64871.18%9,69027.98%2920.84%14,95843.19%34,630
Travis119,27824.63%359,77274.30%5,1541.06%240,49449.67%484,204
Trinity4,14680.12%99819.29%310.60%3,14860.83%5,175
Tyler5,91982.91%1,18516.60%350.49%4,73466.31%7,139
Upshur11,52982.44%2,36416.91%910.65%9,16565.54%13,984
Upton85482.83%16916.39%80.78%68566.44%1,031
Uvalde4,34854.80%3,52844.46%590.74%82010.33%7,935
Val Verde5,34546.87%5,95552.21%1050.92%6105.35%11,405
Van Zandt15,18284.66%2,63414.69%1160.65%12,54869.98%17,932
Victoria19,00569.85%8,04629.57%1570.58%10,95940.28%27,208
Walker11,53564.61%6,18634.65%1320.74%5,34929.96%17,853
Waller10,16761.24%6,33538.16%1010.61%3,83223.08%16,603
Ward2,09671.78%80027.40%240.82%1,29644.38%2,920
Washington10,13475.11%3,26324.18%950.70%6,87150.93%13,492
Webb13,81427.97%35,15971.20%4080.83%21,34543.23%49,381
Wharton9,09470.27%3,79329.31%550.42%5,30140.96%12,942
Wheeler1,67992.76%1256.91%60.33%1,55485.86%1,810
Wichita23,64869.72%9,97129.40%2990.88%13,67740.32%33,918
Wilbarger2,63976.74%77622.56%240.70%1,86354.17%3,439
Willacy1,52735.31%2,77364.12%250.58%1,24628.81%4,325
Williamson99,85747.96%105,85050.84%2,5141.21%5,9932.88%208,221
Wilson13,02573.51%4,56725.77%1270.72%8,45847.73%17,719
Winkler1,12377.18%32122.06%110.76%80255.12%1,455
Wise19,02382.29%3,91516.94%1790.77%15,10865.35%23,117
Wood13,98783.55%2,63515.74%1180.70%11,35267.81%16,740
Yoakum1,55881.87%33517.60%100.53%1,22364.27%1,903
Young5,54386.54%82112.82%410.64%4,72273.72%6,405
Zapata82136.93%1,39262.62%100.45%57125.69%2,223
Zavala58920.19%2,31379.29%150.51%1,72459.10%2,917
Total4,260,55350.89%4,045,63248.32%65,4700.78%214,9212.57%8,371,655
Cruz
Republican		O'Rourke
Democratic		Dikeman
Libertarian		MarginTotal
votes

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Cruz won 20 of 36 congressional districts; O'Rourke won the other 16, including three held by Republicans.[102]

DistrictCruzO'RourkeRepresentative
71%28%Louie Gohmert
50%49%Ted Poe
Dan Crenshaw
51%48%Sam Johnson
Van Taylor
74%25%John Ratcliffe
60%39%Jeb Hensarling
Lance Gooden
51%48%Joe Barton
Ron Wright
46%53%John Culberson
Lizzie Fletcher
71%28%Kevin Brady
19%80%Al Green
49.4%49.6%Michael McCaul
78%21%Mike Conaway
60%39%Kay Granger
79%20%Mac Thornberry
58%41%Randy Weber
42%57%Vicente Gonzalez
26%73%Beto O'Rourke
Veronica Escobar
54%45%Bill Flores
20%79%Sheila Jackson Lee
71%28%Jodey Arrington
33%66%Joaquín Castro
49.6%49.5%Lamar Smith
Chip Roy
49.9%49.3%Pete Olson
47%52%Will Hurd
48%51%Kenny Marchant
52%47%Roger Williams
57%42%Michael Burgess
60%39%Michael Cloud
40%59%Henry Cuellar
25%74%Gene Green
Sylvia Garcia
18%82%Eddie Bernice Johnson
50%48%John Carter
44%55%Pete Sessions
Colin Allred
22%77%Marc Veasey
42%58%Filemon Vela Jr.
27%72%Lloyd Doggett
71%28%Brian Babin

External links

Official campaign websites

Notes and References

  1. Web site: Turnout and Voter Registration Figures (1970-current).
  2. Web site: Texas 2018 General Election. The Green Papers. December 10, 2017.
  3. Web site: 2018 State Primary Election Dates. National Conference of State. Legislatures. www.ncsl.org.
  4. Web site: Meet the Merry Band of Texas Democrats Running for Statewide Office. Miller. Justin. June 6, 2018. Texas Observer. September 28, 2018.
  5. Web site: How Much Trouble Is Ted Cruz Really In?. Mehta. Dhrumil. August 31, 2018. 538. September 28, 2018.
  6. Web site: Ted Cruz's surprisingly competitive battle against Beto O'Rourke, explained. Golshan. Tara. September 12, 2018. Vox. September 28, 2018.
  7. News: Ted Cruz wins Texas Senate race, fending off challenge from Beto O'Rourke . 2018-11-06 . CBS News . 2018-11-07 . en.
  8. Web site: Ted Cruz's margin of victory over Beto O'Rourke was even slimmer than we thought - HoustonChronicle.com. December 6, 2018. www.houstonchronicle.com.
  9. Web site: America's Most and Least Popular Senators. Morning Consult. Easley. Cameron. April 12, 2018. June 30, 2018.
  10. News: Ted Cruz files to run for reelection to the Senate in 2018. The Washington Post. Sullivan. Sean. May 11, 2016. July 25, 2016.
  11. Web site: Christian TV producer challenging Sen. Ted Cruz in GOP primary. Wang. Jackie. November 16, 2017. Dallas Morning News. November 16, 2017.
  12. News: Deadline for 2018 primary ballot: Monday. Here's who is already in the race. Fort Worth Star-Telegram. Tinsley. Anna M.. December 9, 2017. December 11, 2017.
  13. Web site: 2018 Election: First day of filing begins with a rush of candidates. Fort Worth Star-Telegram. Tinsley. Anna M.. November 11, 2017. November 15, 2017.
  14. Web site: Geraldine Sam to Run for Senate. The Amarillo Pioneer. Warren. Thomas. November 15, 2017. November 20, 2017.
  15. Web site: Houston energy lawyer to challenge Cruz in 2018 Texas Republican primary. Houston Chronicle. Diaz. Kevin. July 19, 2017. July 19, 2017.
  16. News: Former Birdville schools employee joins GOP race to unseat Sen. Ted Cruz. Fort Worth Star-Telegram. Smith. Diane. November 30, 2017. December 1, 2017.
  17. Web site: Woolbright. Matt. August 9, 2017. EXCLUSIVE: Former mayor Dan McQueen announces U.S. Senate bid. Caller-Times. August 10, 2017.
  18. Web site: Former Corpus Christi mayor Dan McQueen drops out of Senate race. Corpus Christi Caller-Times. Dearman. Eleanor. November 17, 2017. November 20, 2017.
  19. News: Raju. Manu. Following RNC speech, Cruz critics urge McCaul to mount primary challenge. August 9, 2016. CNN. August 8, 2016.
  20. News: George P Bush seeks re-election as Texas land commissioner. https://web.archive.org/web/20170619065601/https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/apnewsbreak-george-p-bush-seeking-re-election-in-texas/2017/06/19/bb0c1498-54ad-11e7-840b-512026319da7_story.html. dead. June 19, 2017. The Washington Post. Weissert. Will. June 19, 2017. June 19, 2017.
  21. Web site: Ted Cruz May Get The Last Laugh If Donald Trump Implodes. Ryan Grim & Igor Bobic, The Huffington Post. August 9, 2016. August 8, 2016.
  22. Web site: Ted Cruz reports $5.2 million total ahead of re-election campaign. The Texas Tribune. Svitek. Patrick. April 21, 2017. May 1, 2017.
  23. Web site: Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick: I am not running for U.S. Senate. The Dallas Morning News. Grissom. Brandi. May 4, 2016. July 25, 2016. https://web.archive.org/web/20160709104910/http://trailblazersblog.dallasnews.com/2016/05/lt-gov-dan-patrick-i-am-not-running-for-u-s-senate.html/. July 9, 2016. dead.
  24. Web site: Rick Perry Talks "Dancing With The Stars," Senate Speculation . Texas Tribune . August 31, 2016 . September 3, 2016 . Livingston, Abby.
  25. Web site: Roger Stone, Alex Jones plot primary challenge to Cruz. The Hill. Easley. Jonathan. July 21, 2016. July 25, 2016.
  26. https://www.cbsnews.com/dfw/news/texas-democrats-undecided-abbott-cruz-safe/ Dixie Strategies
  27. https://static.texastribune.org/media/documents/ut-tt-2018-02-summary-1.pdf University of Texas
  28. https://www.cbsnews.com/dfw/news/trump-leads-clinton-gains-in-latest-texas-ktvt-cbs-11-dixie-strategies-poll/ Dixie Strategies
  29. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_TX_81716.pdf Public Policy Polling
  30. https://www.cbsnews.com/dfw/news/texans-dont-like-cruz-in-ktvt-cbs-11dixie-strategies-poll/ Dixie Strategies
  31. Web site: Rep. Beto O'Rourke "very likely" to run for Sen. Ted Cruz's seat in 2018. Abby. Livingston. January 6, 2017.
  32. Web site: Beto O'Rourke to challenge Ted Cruz in Texas' 2018 Senate race . Houston Chronicle . March 29, 2017 . March 29, 2017 . Bill Lambrecht and Kevin Diaz.
  33. Web site: Democratic Congressman Beto O'Rourke Launches Longshot Senate Challenge to Ted Cruz. Reid J. Epstein. March 31, 2017. The Wall Street Journal.
  34. Web site: Local baseball coach to run against Ted Cruz in Senate race. KTRK-TV. August 18, 2017. August 21, 2017.
  35. Web site: Filing news: Jerry's back. Off the Kuff. Kuffner. Charles. December 9, 2017. December 11, 2017.
  36. News: Joaquin Castro decides not to run against Ted Cruz in 2018 — at least for now . Washington Post . May 1, 2017 . May 1, 2017 . O'Keefe, Ed.
  37. Web site: Joaquin Castro Causes New Stir as He Considers Senate Run . Texas Tribune . July 26, 2016 . September 3, 2016 . Svitek, Patrick.
  38. Web site: Wendy Davis Draws Starstruck Fans at Democratic National Convention . Texas Tribune . September 3, 2016 . Livingston, Abby. July 29, 2016 .
  39. Web site: DIKEMAN, NEAL MONROE - Candidate overview - FEC.gov. FEC.gov.
  40. Web site: Cruz Leads O'Rourke in New Senate Poll. April 18, 2018 .
  41. Web site: BIBLE, CARL ALEXANDER - Candidate overview - FEC.gov. FEC.gov.
  42. Web site: Jonathan Jenkins Independent Senate Bid. myhighplains.com.
  43. Web site: JENKINS, JONATHAN - Candidate overview - FEC.gov. FEC.gov. en. June 1, 2018.
  44. Web site: AmericanCitizenParty.us . americancitizenparty.us . September 9, 2019 . https://web.archive.org/web/20190703035343/http://www.americancitizenparty.us/ . July 3, 2019 . dead .
  45. Web site: Former Bush operative Matthew Dowd mulls challenging Cruz for Senate. The Texas Tribune. Livingston. Abby. January 5, 2017. January 6, 2017.
  46. Web site: Matthew Dowd won't challenge U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz in 2018. The Texas Tribune. Svitek. Patrick. May 10, 2017. May 10, 2017.
  47. Web site: 2018 Senate Race Ratings for October 26, 2018. The Cook Political Report. March 13, 2021.
  48. Web site: 2018 Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. March 13, 2021.
  49. Web site: Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2018 Senate. www.centerforpolitics.org. en-US. 2018-08-18.
  50. Web site: Key Races: Senate. July 15, 2018.
  51. Web site: Battle for the Senate 2018. July 15, 2018.
  52. Web site: Daily Kos Elections 2018 race ratings. Daily Kos. June 5, 2018.
  53. Web site: 2018 Senate Power Rankings. . July 10, 2018.
  54. Web site: Beto O'Rourke smashes record, raises $38.1 million in three months. David Wright. CNN.
  55. News: Arkin . James . October 11, 2020 . Jaime Harrison shatters Senate fundraising record for South Carolina race . . October 11, 2020.
  56. Web site: Ted Cruz vs. Beto O'Rourke campaign nearly hit $115M. December 7, 2018. Houston Chronicle.
  57. Web site: 2018 Election United States Senate - Texas . . December 31, 2018 . . October 11, 2020.
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  66. https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/rngs/USA-ELECTION/010080D20RG/index.html Ipsos
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  68. http://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2018/images/10/16/rel1_tx.pdf CNN/SSRS
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  82. https://web.archive.org/web/20180911144253/https://www.emerson.edu/sites/default/files/Files/Academics/ecp-tx-aug2018-pr.pdf Emerson College
  83. http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/NBC-News_Marist-Poll_Texas-Nature-of-the-Sample-and-Tables_August-2018_1808201203.pdf NBC News/Marist
  84. https://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=784898&ShowAllMUPoll=Y Civiqs
  85. http://endcitizensunited.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/TX-Aug-18-Memo.pdf Public Policy Polling (D-End Citizens United)
  86. https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/tx/tx08012018_tecd19.pdf Quinnipiac University
  87. https://web.archive.org/web/20180801190600/https://www.texaslyceum.org/resources/Poll%202018/Day%202/Day%202%202018%20Texas%20Lyceum%20Toplines%20(2).pdf Texas Lyceum
  88. https://www.scribd.com/document/383517600/Texas-2c-July-8-2c-2018 Gravis Marketing
  89. https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/q1xl43robk/cbs_20180624_TX.pdf YouGov
  90. https://www.texastribune.org/2018/06/25/ted-cruz-beto-orourke-poll-5-points-texas-senate-race-uttt/ University of Texas/YouGov
  91. https://www.scribd.com/document/381866643/TX-Sen-Greenberg-Quinlan-Rosner-Research-D-for-End-Citizens-United-June-2018 GQR Research (D-End Citizens United)
  92. https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/tx/tx05302018_twbn13.pdf Quinnipiac University
  93. https://www.scribd.com/document/383286248/TLRPAC-Texas-Statewide-Voter-Survey-Memo Baselice & Associates (R-TLRPAC)
  94. https://www.scribd.com/document/381154820/PPP-poll-of-TX-SEN-for-Giffords Public Policy Polling (D-Giffords)
  95. http://winwithjmc.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/Texas-Executive-Summary.pdf JMC Analytics (R-Red Metrics Group)
  96. Jonathan Jenkins (I) 6%
  97. https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/tx/tx04182018_tjnp18.pdf Quinnipiac University
  98. https://www.scribd.com/document/369899608/TX-Sen-PPP-for-End-Citizens-United-Jan-2018 Public Policy Polling (D-End Citizens United)
  99. http://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/politics/article/GOP-study-Ted-Cruz-begins-2018-Senate-race-with-12467377.php WPA Intelligence (R-Cruz)
  100. https://web.archive.org/web/20170420050125/http://www.texaslyceum.org/resources/Pictures/2017%20Topline%20Results.pdf Texas Lyceum
  101. News: Ted Cruz thwarts challenge from Democratic insurgent Beto O'Rourke in tight Senate race, ABC News projects. ABC News. November 7, 2018. November 7, 2018.
  102. Web site: Texas 2018 Senate and governor by Congressional District.

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