2014 United States Senate election in South Dakota explained

Election Name:2014 United States Senate election in South Dakota
Country:South Dakota
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2008 United States Senate election in South Dakota
Previous Year:2008
Next Election:2020 United States Senate election in South Dakota
Next Year:2020
Image1:File: Mike Rounds official photo.JPG
Nominee1:Mike Rounds
Party1:Republican Party (United States)
Popular Vote1:140,741
Percentage1:50.37%
Nominee2:Rick Weiland
Party2:Democratic Party (United States)
Popular Vote2:82,456
Percentage2:29.51%
Image3:File:Larry Pressler 1989.jpg
Nominee3:Larry Pressler
Party3:Independent
Popular Vote3:47,741
Percentage3:17.09%
Map Size:240px
U.S. Senator
Before Election:Tim Johnson
Before Party:Democratic Party (United States)
After Election:Mike Rounds
After Party:Republican Party (United States)

The 2014 United States Senate election in South Dakota took place on November 4, 2014, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of South Dakota, concurrently with the election of the Governor of South Dakota, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Incumbent Democratic Senator Tim Johnson decided to retire instead of running for re-election to a fourth term in office. As a result, this was the first open seat election since 1978. With Mike Rounds' election, Republicans held both of South Dakota's Senate seats for the first time since 1987 and gave South Dakota an all-GOP congressional delegation for the first time since 1963.

Businessman Rick Weiland ran unopposed for the Democratic nomination, while the Republicans picked former Governor of South Dakota Mike Rounds. Also running were two independent candidates: former Republican U.S. Senator Larry Pressler, who served three terms in the Senate from 1979 to 1997, and former Republican state senator Gordon Howie.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Withdrew

Declined

Results

Weiland faced no opposition in the Democratic primary.

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Polling

Poll sourceAnnette
Bosworth		Stace
Nelson		Larry
Rhoden		Mike
Rounds		Undecided
align=left Harper Polling[28] September 4–5, 2013252±6.17%6%8%7%58%22%
align=left Nielson Brothers PollingOctober 2–6, 2013410± 4.84%2.7%10.4%3.9%46.1%37%
align=left Public Opinion Strategies[29] April 8–10, 2014500± 4.38%8%14%7%61%9%

Results

Independents and third parties

Candidates

Declared

Disqualified

Withdrew

General election

Campaign

Rounds was widely seen as the front runner throughout the campaign.[37] However, he faced ongoing criticism on the election trail for his possible involvement with the State's ongoing EB-5 visa investigation, concerning the conflict of interest that Rounds' administration had when administering the EB-5 program. State officials misused funds to pay for their salaries, did not disclose that they owned companies which they gave contracts to, directed money towards companies that went bankrupt and arranged for loans from unknown sources from shell companies located in tax havens.[38] [39] [40] In October 2014, Rounds admitted that he had approved a $1 million state loan to meat-packing company Northern Beef shortly after learning that Secretary of Tourism and State Development Richard Benda had agreed to join the company, with Benda then getting another $600,000 in loans that was ultimately used to pay his own salary.[41] [42] Benda committed suicide in October 2013, days before a possible indictment over embezzlement and grand theft charges.[43]

Columnist Jonathan Ellis of the Argus Leader called Rounds' fundraising "anemic" compared to the amount of outside money coming into the state on Weiland's side, and criticized the entire Rounds campaign as "more suited for sheriff of Mayberry County than U.S. Senate."[44]

Debates

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
align=left The Cook Political Report[45] November 3, 2014
align=left Sabato's Crystal Ball[46] November 3, 2014
align=left Rothenberg Political Report[47] November 3, 2014
align=left Real Clear Politics[48] November 3, 2014

Polling

Poll sourceRick
Weiland (D)		Mike
Rounds (R)		Larry
Pressler (I)		Gordon
Howie (I)		OtherUndecided
align=left Nielson Brothers Polling[49] June 10–14, 2013500± 4.4%27%54%———19%
align=left Harper Polling[50] September 4–5, 2013517± 4.31%38%52%———10%
align=left Nielson Brothers PollingOctober 2–6, 2013818± 3.43%35%50%———15%
align=left Public Policy Polling[51] October 10–13, 2013882± 3.3%34%40%——11%[52] 15%
align=left Rasmussen Reports[53] February 25–26, 2014500± 4.5%31%51%——6%11%
align=left Public Policy Polling^[54] April 30 – May 1, 2014745± 3.6%28%38%15%4%—15%
align=left SurveyUSA[55] May 6–10, 2014504± 4.5%30%44%17%3%2%[56] 5%
align=left Rasmussen ReportsJune 4–5, 2014750± 4%29%44%18%—2%7%
align=left CBS News/NYT/YouGov[57] July 5–24, 2014631± 4.5%34%59%——3%5%
align=left Clarity Campaign Labs^[58] July 16–23, 20143,837± 1.44%24%34%10%3%—29%
align=left Nielson Brothers Polling[59] July 23–28, 2014578± 4.04%30%43%14%4%—9%
align=left Public Opinion Strategies August 11–13, 2014500± 4.38%24%49%15%4%—7%
align=left Public Policy Polling^[61] August 12–13, 2014726± 3.6%31%39%16%5%—9%
align=left rowspan=2 Public Policy Polling^[62] August 27–28, 2014709± 3.7%33%39%17%4%—7%
42%45%———13%
align=left CBS News/NYT/YouGov[63] August 18 – September 2, 2014526± 6%29%43%6%—1%21%
align=left rowspan=2 SurveyUSA[64] September 3–7, 2014510± 4.4%28%39%25%3%—5%
42%44%—3%—11%
align=left ccAdvertising[65] September 22–23, 20141,769± ?17%39%17%——27%
align=left Public Opinion Strategies September 22–23, 2014500± 4.38%23%41%19%4%—12%
align=left rowspan=3 Nielson Brothers Polling[67] September 21–25, 2014647± 3.24%26%39%24%4%—7%
636± 3.27%37.1%45%—7%—10%
623± 3.3%—40%39%8%—13%
align=left Public Policy Polling^[68] September 29–30, 2014703± 3.7%28%35%24%8%—5%
align=left CBS News/NYT/YouGov[69] September 20 – October 1, 2014382± 7%27%42%12%—1%17%
align=left rowspan=3 SurveyUSA[70] October 1–5, 2014616± 4%28%35%32%3%—2%
47%47%—3%—3%
—39%54%3%—4%
align=left Harper Polling[71] October 9–11, 2014630± 3.9%33%37%23%5%—2%
align=left Public Opinion Strategies October 18–20, 2014500± 4.38%24%48%16%3%—9%
align=left CBS News/NYT/YouGovOctober 16–23, 2014527± 8%25%38%17%—0%21%
align=left rowspan=2 NBC News/Marist[73] October 19–23, 2014730 LV± 3.6%29%43%16%3%<1%7%
990 RV± 3.1%28%43%16%4%<1%9%
align=left Mason-Dixon[74] October 20–23, 2014800± 3.5%33%42%13%2%—10%
align=left SurveyUSA[75] October 21–26, 2014611± 4%32%43%19%2%—4%
align=left Rasmussen ReportsOctober 22–26, 2014908± 3.5%31%45%21%——3%
align=left rowspan=2 Monmouth University[76] October 24–27, 2014429± 4.7%31%45%19%1%—4%
40%48%—1%—11%

With Herseth Sandlin

With B. Johnson

With T. Johnson

With Weiland

Poll sourceRick
Weiland (D)		Annette
Bosworth (R)		OtherUndecided
align=left Harper Polling[77] September 4–5, 2013517± 4.31%38%36%—26%
align=left Nielson Brothers PollingOctober 2–6, 2013815± 3.43%38%33%—30%
Poll sourceRick
Weiland (D)		Stace
Nelson (R)		OtherUndecided
align=left Harper Polling[78] September 4–5, 2013517± 4.31%38%40%—22%
align=left Nielson Brothers PollingOctober 2–6, 2013815± 3.43%36%35%—30%
Poll sourceRick
Weiland (D)		Larry
Rhoden (R)		OtherUndecided
align=left Harper Polling[79] September 4–5, 2013517± 4.31%35%41%—23%
align=left Nielson Brothers PollingOctober 2–6, 2013815± 3.43%37%32%—31%

Results

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Maps

See also

External links

Official campaign websites (Archived)

Notes and References

  1. Web site: Update: Rick Weiland's Senate run draws support from Daschle, others . May 8, 2013 . May 9, 2013 . Argus Leader .
  2. Web site: Field for South Dakota US Senate seat set . March 26, 2014 . March 26, 2014 . CTPost .
  3. Web site: Resident set to run for Democratic nomination for Senate . February 14, 2014 . March 21, 2014 . Aberdeen News . Wynn . Kimberly.
  4. Web site: 2nd Democrat Joins Senate Race . February 14, 2014 . March 21, 2014 . WNAX (AM).
  5. Web site: Democrat Henry Sinkie Seeking Democratic Nomination for U.S. Senate . February 3, 2014 . March 21, 2014 . Madville Times . Heidelberger . Cory.
  6. Web site: Frerichs' political future . May 29, 2013 . July 9, 2013 . Political Smokeout.
  7. Web site: Current Candidates for Primary Election . March 21, 2014 . dead . https://web.archive.org/web/20140325222718/http://sdsos.gov/content/html/elections/electvoterpdfs/2014/ElectionCandidates.pdf . March 25, 2014.
  8. Web site: Stephanie Herseth Sandlin Not Running for Senate . May 13, 2013 . May 13, 2013 . . Kyle . Trygstad . June 9, 2013 . https://web.archive.org/web/20130609223217/http://atr.rollcall.com/stephanie-herseth-sandlin-not-running-for-senate/ . dead .
  9. http://www.politico.com/story/2013/05/stephanie-herseth-sandlin-south-dakota-senate-seat-91251.html Stephanie Herseth Sandlin won't run in South Dakota - James Hohmann - POLITICO.com
  10. Web site: Report: Democratic Sen. Johnson to retire . March 25, 2013 . March 25, 2013 . . Catalina . Carnia.
  11. Web site: Will Pat O'Brien Enter South Dakota's US Senate Race? . May 22, 2013 . May 25, 2013 . Smart Politics . Eric . Ostermeier.
  12. Web site: Volesky confirms interest in Senate race . September 23, 2013 . March 21, 2014 . Political Smokeout . David . Montgomery.
  13. Web site: Volesky decides against entering U.S. Senate race . https://web.archive.org/web/20141105101646/http://www.plainsman.com/v2_news_articles.php?page=72&story_id=22276 . dead . November 5, 2014 . March 1, 2014 . March 21, 2014 . .
  14. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_SD_320.pdf Public Policy Polling
  15. https://www.scribd.com/doc/177280838/SD-Sen-Nielson-Brothers-Oct-2012 Nielson Brothers Polling
  16. Web site: June 7, 2013 . Wanted: Communications Coordinator for Bosworth Senate Campaign . Cory Allen . Heidelberger . June 4, 2013 . Madville Times .
  17. Web site: June 16, 2013 . Bosworth says she represents new generation for Senate . David . Montgomery . June 10, 2013 . Political Smokeout .
  18. Web site: Stace Nelson to announce run for U.S. Senate . . August 13, 2013 . August 13, 2013 . August 13, 2013 . https://archive.today/20130813165456/http://www.argusleader.com/article/20130813/UPDATES/130813001/Stace-Nelson-announce-run-U-S-Senate?nclick_check=1 . dead .
  19. Web site: Army reservist to run for U.S. Senate . December 16, 2013 . December 30, 2013 . .
  20. Web site: Legislative leader Larry Rhoden to challenge Mike Rounds . July 9, 2013 . July 9, 2013 . . David . Montgomery .
  21. Web site: WOSTER: Rounds keeps eye on 2014 . October 30, 2011 . September 15, 2012 . . Kevin . Woster.
  22. Web site: Former SD Gov. Rounds announces run for US Senate . November 29, 2012 . November 29, 2012 . . Chet . Brokaw . February 25, 2013 . https://web.archive.org/web/20130225024459/http://www.aberdeennews.com/news/aan-former-sd-gov-rounds-announces-run-for-us-senate-20121129,0,4780352.story . dead .
  23. Web site: Former SD lieutenant governor considering run for Senate . March 28, 2013 . March 30, 2013 . . Alexandra . Jaffe.
  24. Web site: Noem Not the Anti-Rounds Candidate; Opportunity Knocks, Rep. Nelson… . June 11, 2013 . December 13, 2013 . Madville Times . Cory . Heidelberger.
  25. Web site: Some conservative groups down on Noem as Rounds challenger . May 23, 2013 . June 16, 2013 . Political Smokeout . David . Montgomery.
  26. News: Camia . Catalina . Rep. Kristi Noem passes on S.D. Senate race . USA Today . June 11, 2013.
  27. Web site: Once again, Former State Rep. Mark Venner is out of the US Senate Race. . November 26, 2013 . December 13, 2013 . South Dakota War College . https://web.archive.org/web/20131214023409/http://dakotawarcollege.com/hes-in-hes-out-hes-in-again-and-once-again-former-state-rep-mark-venner-is-out-of-the-us-senate-race/ . December 14, 2013 . dead .
  28. http://www.harperpolling.com/docs/default-source/default-document-library/hp-13-09-sd-gop-toplines.pdf?sfvrsn=0 Harper Polling
  29. https://web.archive.org/web/20140513180110/http://pos.org/documents/south_dakota_primary_memo.pdf Public Opinion Strategies
  30. Web site: Gordon Howie . Ensuring a Choice for South Dakota Conservatives . American Clarion . April 3, 2014 . April 4, 2014 . https://web.archive.org/web/20140407080904/http://www.americanclarion.com/ensuring-choice-conservatives-29803 . April 7, 2014 . dead . mdy-all .
  31. Web site: Former SD senator explores run as Independent for US office . November 7, 2013 . November 9, 2013 . Native Sun News . . Karen . Eagle.
  32. News: Sullivan . Sean . Ex-senator Pressler announces independent bid in South Dakota . Washington Post . December 27, 2013.
  33. Web site: Black Hawk man seeks run for U.S. Senate . May 1, 2014 . May 7, 2014 . Rapid City Journal.
  34. Web site: Successful Walker Challenge: Affidavit Cites Misregistered, Unregistered, Fictitious Voters . May 20, 2014 . June 5, 2014 . Madville Times . Toby . Uecker.
  35. Web site: Libertarian Evans to run for U.S. Senate in 2014 . September 14, 2013 . November 9, 2013 . . David . Montgomery.
  36. Web site: Libertarian Kurt Evans ends Senate run . December 19, 2013 . February 11, 2014 . . David . Rookhuyzen.
  37. News: Montgomery . David . GOP Senate challengers want Rounds at debates . December 19, 2013 . Argus Leader . November 30, 2013 .
  38. News: What you need to know about EB-5 in South Dakota . Argus Leader . October 8, 2014 . October 13, 2014.
  39. News: This immigration scandal drove a state official to suicide — and could give Dems the Senate . . . October 10, 2014 . October 13, 2014.
  40. News: State EB-5 director signed deal with own company . Argus Leader . September 23, 2014 . October 13, 2014.
  41. News: Rounds knew of Benda conflict in final days of term . Argus Leader . October 22, 2014 . October 23, 2014.
  42. News: $550,000 from Northern Beef grant was used to pay Benda for two years . Capital Journal . December 13, 2013 . October 23, 2014.
  43. News: AG: Benda Suicide Came Days Prior To Possible Indictment . Keloland . July 29, 2014 . October 23, 2014 . October 23, 2014 . https://web.archive.org/web/20141023164041/http://www.keloland.com/newsdetail.cfm/ag-benda-suicide-came-days-prior-to-possible-indictment/?id=167555 . dead .
  44. News: Ellis: Why it's a close race for Senate . Argus Leader . October 13, 2014 . October 13, 2014.
  45. Web site: 2014 Senate Race Ratings for November 3, 2014 . The Cook Political Report . September 20, 2018.
  46. Web site: The Crystal Ball's Final 2014 Picks . Sabato's Crystal Ball . September 20, 2018.
  47. Web site: 2014 Senate Ratings . Senate Ratings . The Rothenberg Political Report . September 20, 2018.
  48. Web site: 2014 Elections Map - Battle for the Senate 2014 . Real Clear Politics . September 20, 2018.
  49. http://politicalsmokeout.tumblr.com/post/54072940756/nielson-brothers-rounds-leads-weiland-two-to-one Nielson Brothers Polling
  50. http://www.harperpolling.com/docs/default-source/default-document-library/hp-13-09-sd-senate-toplines.pdf Harper Polling
  51. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2013/PPP_Release_SD_1016.pdf Public Policy Polling
  52. Kurt Evans (L) 11%
  53. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2014/south_dakota/election_2014_south_dakota_senate Rasmussen Reports
  54. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/SouthDakotaPollMemo.pdf Public Policy Polling^
  55. https://web.archive.org/web/20140517151942/http://ww2.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=29863e15-255e-42f2-b507-c3fdca7d8c5c SurveyUSA
  56. Clayton Walker (I) 2%
  57. http://www.cbsnews.com/news/2014-midterms-republicans-narrowly-favored-to-capture-senate-in-november/ CBS News/NYT/YouGov
  58. https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/494597760952193025 Clarity Campaign Labs^
  59. https://www.scribd.com/doc/235955502/NBP-Press-Release-for-Senate-July-23-28-Final Nielson Brothers Polling
  60. https://web.archive.org/web/20140820004102/http://pos.org/documents/us_senate_memo.pdf Public Opinion Strategies*
  61. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/08/rounds-still-under-40-in-south-dakota-senate-race-weiland-more-popular.html Public Policy Polling^
  62. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/08/weiland-continues-to-chip-away-at-rounds-lead-in-south-dakota.html Public Policy Polling^
  63. https://today.yougov.com/news/2014/09/07/battleground-tracker-2014-south-dakota/ CBS News/NYT/YouGov
  64. http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=09d5ab56-e7a9-48a4-abb4-403949a2c17d SurveyUSA
  65. https://gallery.mailchimp.com/0a361110a8a816b64fb4521ff/files/SD_SENATE_SURVEY_FLYER_14_924.pdf ccAdvertising
  66. https://web.archive.org/web/20141006101140/http://dakotawarcollege.com/weiland-down-4-and-republican-mike-rounds-extends-his-lead-to-18-in-rounds-internal-polling/ Public Opinion Strategies*
  67. http://ksoo.com/breaking-rounds-still-leads-in-u-s-senate-race-but-pressler-gaining/ Nielson Brothers Polling
  68. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/10/rounds-support-falls-to-35-in-south-dakota-race.html Public Policy Polling^
  69. http://today.yougov.com/news/2014/09/07/senate-races-battleground-tracker/ CBS News/NYT/YouGov
  70. http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=459ff79a-7e55-4e15-acd5-f86f146ae3a7 SurveyUSA
  71. https://web.archive.org/web/20141013182141/http://harperpolling.com/polls/south-dakota-senate-poll Harper Polling
  72. http://images.politico.com/global/2014/10/22/sd_sen_oct_poll_memo1.html Public Opinion Strategies*
  73. http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/SDpolls/SD141018/Complete%20October%202014%20South%20Dakota%20NBC%20News__Marist%20Poll%20Release%20and%20Tables.pdf NBC News/Marist
  74. http://www.argusleader.com/story/davidmontgomery/2014/10/27/argus-kelo-poll/17975803/ Mason-Dixon
  75. http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=b79aa9e7-88e4-4236-a4cc-3381244eda1b SurveyUSA
  76. https://web.archive.org/web/20141028212907/http://www.monmouth.edu/assets/0/32212254770/32212254991/32212254992/32212254994/32212254995/30064771087/df3d3c36-54a7-40f7-beab-17cd2a0e8ba7.pdf Monmouth University
  77. http://www.harperpolling.com/docs/default-source/default-document-library/hp-13-09-sd-senate-toplines.pdf Harper Polling
  78. http://www.harperpolling.com/docs/default-source/default-document-library/hp-13-09-sd-senate-toplines.pdf Harper Polling
  79. http://www.harperpolling.com/docs/default-source/default-document-library/hp-13-09-sd-senate-toplines.pdf Harper Polling

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