2014 United States Senate election in Oregon explained

Election Name:2014 United States Senate election in Oregon
Country:Oregon
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2008 United States Senate election in Oregon
Previous Year:2008
Next Election:2020 United States Senate election in Oregon
Next Year:2020
Election Date:November 4, 2014
Nominee1:Jeff Merkley
Party1:Democratic Party (United States)
Popular Vote1:814,537
Percentage1:55.73%
Nominee2:Monica Wehby
Party2:Republican Party (United States)
Popular Vote2:538,847
Percentage2:36.87%
Map Size:250px
U.S. Senator
Before Election:Jeff Merkley
Before Party:Democratic Party (United States)
After Election:Jeff Merkley
After Party:Democratic Party (United States)

The 2014 United States Senate election in Oregon took place on November 4, 2014, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Oregon, concurrently with the election of the Governor of Oregon, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Incumbent Democratic Senator Jeff Merkley successfully ran for reelection to a second term. Despite it being a national midterm Republican wave, this was actually a stronger Senate election for him in terms of margin of victory, winning by almost 20%.[1] Primary elections were held on May 20, 2014. Merkley easily won the Democratic nomination, while the Republicans nominated pediatric neurosurgeon Monica Wehby. Initially, the race was considered potentially competitive, but Wehby's campaign began to collapse after she faced multiple allegations of stalking and harassment from former partners, and was found to have plagiarized portions of her campaign website, leading to her major defeat.[2]

Background

Democrat Jeff Merkley, the Speaker of the Oregon House of Representatives, had narrowly defeated two-term Republican incumbent Gordon H. Smith with 49% of the vote in 2008.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Results

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Withdrew

Declined

Polling

Poll sourceMark
Callahan
Jason
Conger
Tim
Crawley
Jo Rae
Perkins
Monica
Wehby
Undecided
align=left Benenson Strategy Group[14] April 14–17, 2014410± ?24%22%55%
align=left Wenzel Strategies[15] May 1–4, 2014607± ?4%22%3%3%43%26%
align=left Public Opinion Strategies[16] May 12–13, 2014500± 4.38%2%24%2%2%41%26%

Results

Independents

The filing deadline for independent candidates is August 26, 2014. In order to qualify, a candidate must submit 17,893 signatures of registered voters or obtain signatures from at least 1,000 electors at a valid assembly of electors.[17]

Candidates

Declared

General election

Debates

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
align=left The Cook Political Report[19] November 3, 2014
align=left Sabato's Crystal Ball[20] November 3, 2014
align=left Rothenberg Political Report[21] November 3, 2014
align=left Real Clear Politics[22] November 3, 2014

Polling

Poll sourceJeff
Merkley (D)
Monica
Wehby (R)
OtherUndecided
align=left Harper Polling[23] April 1–2, 2014670± 3.91%46%34%20%
align=left Benenson Strategy GroupApril 14–17, 2014600± 4%52%32%16%
align=left Rasmussen Reports[24] May 21–22, 2014750± 4%47%37%5%11%
align=left Public Policy Polling[25] May 22–27, 2014956± 3.2%50%36%15%
align=left The Tarrance Group June 1–3, 2014615± 4.1%41%39%9%[27] 11%
align=left SurveyUSA[28] June 5–9, 2014560± 4.2%50%32%9%9%
align=left CBS News/NYT/YouGov[29] July 5–24, 20142,088± 2.6%53%39%1%7%
align=left SurveyUSA[30] August 1–5, 2014564± 4.2%52%33%7%9%
align=left Moore Information^[31] August 5–9, 2014500± 4%47%38%16%
align=left CBS News/NYT/YouGov[32] August 18 – September 2, 20141,541± 4%51%39%1%9%
align=left Rasmussen ReportsSeptember 2–3, 2014750± 4%48%35%5%12%
align=left Polling Company/WomanTrend[33] September 9–11, 2014600± 4%42%34%7%[34] 14%
align=left SurveyUSA[35] September 22–24, 2014568± 4.2%52%32%8%8%
align=left CBS News/NYT/YouGov[36] September 20 – October 1, 20141,508± 3%52%39%1%8%
align=left DHM Research[37] October 2014?± 4.3%47%26%6%19%
align=left SurveyUSA[38] October 16–19, 2014561± 4.2%53%32%7%8%
align=left CBS News/NYT/YouGovOctober 16–23, 20141,421± 4%51%39%1%9%
align=left SurveyUSA[39] October 23–27, 2014552± 4.3%53%32%8%6%
align=left Elway Research[40] October 26–27, 2014403± 5%49%30%3%[41] 18%
Poll sourceJeff
Merkley (D)
Allen
Alley (R)
OtherUndecided
align=left Public Policy Polling[42] June 21–24, 2012686± 3.7%43%37%20%
align=left Public Policy Polling[43] December 3–5, 2012614± 4%53%36%12%
Poll sourceJeff
Merkley (D)
Jason
Conger (R)
OtherUndecided
align=left Harper PollingApril 1–2, 2014670± 3.91%47%40%12%
align=left Benenson Strategy GroupApril 14–17, 2014600± 4%50%34%16%
Poll sourceJeff
Merkley (D)
Bruce
Hanna (R)
OtherUndecided
align=left Public Policy PollingJune 21–24, 2012686± 3.7%43%35%23%
align=left Public Policy PollingDecember 3–5, 2012614± 4%52%34%14%
Poll sourceJeff
Merkley (D)
Greg
Walden (R)
OtherUndecided
align=left Public Policy PollingJune 21–24, 2012686± 3.7%40%42%18%
align=left Public Policy PollingDecember 3–5, 2012614± 4%47%42%11%

Results

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

See also

External links

Official campaign websites (Archived)

Notes and References

  1. News: Oregon's Jeff Merkley raises money early to fight Senate opponents in 2014 . April 16, 2012 . Pope . Charles . The Oregonian . December 12, 2012.
  2. Web site: Sen. Jeff Merkley decisively defeats Monica Wehby. Statesman Journal. Staver. Anna. November 4, 2014.
  3. News: New Yorker Files to Run Against Merkley In May Primary . . Jaquiss . Nigel . March 6, 2014 . March 12, 2014.
  4. News: Four Challenge Merkley's U.S. Senate Seat For 2014 Election . September 13, 2013 . Joanna Evoniuk and Scott Reynolds . Lane Today . October 11, 2013.
  5. News: Jason Conger sets U.S. Senate announcement for Tuesday in Oregon City and Bend . October 10, 2013 . October 14, 2013 . Oregon Live . Mapes . Jeff.
  6. News: GOP hits Jeff Merkley on Obamacare as new Republican enters Senate race: Oregon politics today . November 4, 2013 . Mapes . Jeff . . November 4, 2013.
  7. News: Jo Rae Perkins of Albany announces bid for U.S. Senate . August 16, 2013 . McInally . Mike . . August 19, 2013.
  8. News: Portland doctor Monica Wehby will seek to unseat Democrat Jeff Merkley . October 29, 2013 . Gaston . Christian . . October 30, 2013.
  9. News: Sam Carpenter drops out of GOP primary for U.S. Senate race in favor of Jason Conger . November 4, 2013 . Mapes . Jeff . . November 4, 2013.
  10. News: Bruce Hanna decides not to run for re-election -- or, for now, another seat: Oregon politics today . Oregon Live . September 20, 2013.
  11. News: Is Senate GOP trying to recruit a challenger to Jeff Merkley through news media? . November 29, 2012 . Mapes . Jeff . The Oregonian . December 12, 2012.
  12. News: Gordon Smith finds happiness in private sector, has no plans to seek office . Oregon Live . August 6, 2012.
  13. News: Republicans Pick Walden as New NRCC Chairman . Roll Call . November 14, 2012.
  14. http://images.politico.com/global/2014/04/22/april_merkley_sor_memo_.html Benenson Strategy Group
  15. http://oregoncatalyst.com/27411-oregon-senate-poll-results.html Wenzel Strategies
  16. http://www.weeklystandard.com/sites/all/files/docs/Wehby%20memo.pdf Public Opinion Strategies
  17. News: Ballot access requirements for political candidates in Oregon . Ballotpedia . March 12, 2014.
  18. News: U.S. Senate Candidate Profile: Karl King . Lane Today . Reynolds . Scott . January 31, 2014 . March 12, 2014.
  19. Web site: 2014 Senate Race Ratings for November 3, 2014 . The Cook Political Report . September 20, 2018.
  20. Web site: The Crystal Ball's Final 2014 Picks . Sabato's Crystal Ball . September 20, 2018.
  21. Web site: 2014 Senate Ratings . Senate Ratings . The Rothenberg Political Report . September 20, 2018.
  22. Web site: 2014 Elections Map - Battle for the Senate 2014 . Real Clear Politics . September 20, 2018.
  23. http://www.harperpolling.com/polls/oregon-poll-too-close-for-comfort Harper Polling
  24. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2014/oregon/election_2014_oregon_senate Rasmussen Reports
  25. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/PPP_Release_OR_529.pdf Public Policy Polling
  26. http://media.oregonlive.com/mapes/other/Wehbypollmemo.pdf The Tarrance Group*
  27. Karl King (I) 5%, Mike Montchalin (L) 4%
  28. http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=005a915d-93f5-4dc8-b982-324b58e9eaa7 SurveyUSA
  29. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/2014-midterms-republicans-narrowly-favored-to-capture-senate-in-november/ CBS News/NYT/YouGov
  30. http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=83bebf2b-2c57-4fdd-932b-8378d93d5eb3 SurveyUSA
  31. http://www.oregonlive.com/mapes/index.ssf/2014/08/dennis_richardson_poll_says_he.html#incart_river Moore Information^
  32. https://today.yougov.com/news/2014/09/07/battleground-tracker-2014-oregon/ CBS News/NYT/YouGov
  33. https://www.scribd.com/doc/239974928/OR-Sen-Polling-Company-Sept-2014 Polling Company/WomanTrend
  34. Christina Lugo (G) 4%, Mike Montchalin (L) 3%
  35. http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=a2828710-8eac-4663-973d-3912ca87f337 SurveyUSA
  36. http://today.yougov.com/news/2014/09/07/senate-races-battleground-tracker/ CBS News/NYT/YouGov
  37. http://www.opb.org/news/article/poll-shows-both-statewide-races-swinging-toward-incumbents/ DHM Research
  38. http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=9b06ee8f-0665-4c61-87b9-e3d8fa4cb91c SurveyUSA
  39. http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=75ff4fa8-60ee-470b-af50-0934993b283d SurveyUSA
  40. http://www.oregonlive.com/mapes/index.ssf/2014/10/jeff_merkley_leads_poll_monica.html Elway Research
  41. Christina Lugo (G) 1%, Mike Montchalin (L) 2%
  42. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_OR_062712.pdf Public Policy Polling
  43. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_OR_12712.pdf Public Policy Polling