2012 United States Senate election in North Dakota explained

Election Name:2012 United States Senate election in North Dakota
Country:North Dakota
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2006 United States Senate election in North Dakota
Previous Year:2006
Next Election:2018 United States Senate election in North Dakota
Next Year:2018
Election Date:November 6, 2012
Turnout:60.6% (voting eligible)[1]
Image1:File:Heidi Heitkamp official portrait.jpg
Nominee1:Heidi Heitkamp
Party1:North Dakota Democratic-NPL Party
Popular Vote1:161,337
Percentage1:50.24%
Nominee2:Rick Berg
Party2:Republican Party (United States)
Popular Vote2:158,401
Percentage2:49.32%
U.S. Senator
Before Election:Kent Conrad
Before Party:North Dakota Democratic-NPL Party
After Election:Heidi Heitkamp
After Party:North Dakota Democratic-NPL Party

The 2012 United States Senate election in North Dakota took place on November 6, 2012, concurrently with the 2012 U.S. presidential election, other United States Senate elections, United States House of Representatives elections, and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic-NPL Senator Kent Conrad decided to retire instead of running for reelection to a fifth term.

Though each party endorses a single candidate in state conventions in the spring, ballot access for the general election was determined in a primary election held on June 12, 2012.[2]

Heidi Heitkamp, a Democratic-NPL former North Dakota Attorney General, won the open seat over Republican Rick Berg, North Dakota's at-large U.S. Representative, by a margin of 0.9%.[3] Heitkamp outperformed President Barack Obama by 20.5%, the latter having lost North Dakota by 19.6% in the concurrent presidential election.[4] Heitkamp's very narrow winning margin made it the closest race of the 2012 United States Senate elections.

, this was the last time a Democrat won a federal and/or statewide election in North Dakota.[5]

Democratic-NPL primary

The North Dakota Democratic-NPL Party held their state convention March 16–18, 2012, in Grand Forks. Former state attorney general and 2000 Democratic gubernatorial nominee Heidi Heitkamp was uncontested in seeking the official party nomination and was the only member of the party elected to appear on the state primary ballot.[6]

Candidates

Nominee

Withdrew

Declined

Republican primary

North Dakota Republicans endorsed U.S. Representative Rick Berg at their convention, though general election ballot access is determined by a statewide primary election held on June 12, 2012. In contrast to state political tradition, declared candidate Duane Sand did not seek the party endorsement, trying instead to defeat Berg on the June primary ballot.[20]

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Declined

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Rick
Berg
Duane
Sand
Undecided
Mason-Dixon[36] June 4–6, 2012625± 4.0% align=center73%16%11%
Essman Research[37] May 3–8, 2012500± 4.3% align=center65%21%14%

Results

General election

Candidates

Debates

Fundraising

Candidate (party)ReceiptsDisbursementsCash on handDebt
Heidi Heitkamp (D)$5,341,362$5,318,232$23,130$0
Rick Berg (R)$6,501,693$6,129,026$316,641$0
Source: Federal Election Commission[39] [40]

Top contributors

[41]

Heidi HeitkampContributionRick BergContribution
Motley Rice LLC$41,750Verizon Communications$43,666
Council for a Livable World$26,705Elliott Management Corporation$29,413
Weitz & Luxenberg$22,400NORPAC$26,700
Robbins Geller Rudman & Dowd LLP$15,050Mewbourne Oil Co$25,000
Medcenter One Health Systems$12,000Rurban Financial$22,700
American Association for Justice$10,833Hess Corp$22,500
Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld$10,750NACCO Industries$22,000
American Federation of Teachers$10,300Marathon Oil$21,000
Patton Boggs LLP$10,250Berkshire Hathaway$20,500
American Postal Workers Union$10,000Koch Industries$20,000

Top industries

[42]

Heidi HeitkampContributionRick BergContribution
Lawyers/law firms$433,811Oil & gas$433,949
Leadership PACs$284,500Leadership PACs$277,163
Women's issues$111,593Financial institutions$274,941
Lobbyists$103,635Retired$218,909
Retired$100,812Real estate$171,686
Agribusiness$78,450Agribusiness$163,583
Public sector unions$73,800Insurance$140,011
Financial institutions$64,713Commercial banks$127,140
Education$60,960Health professionals$114,438
Building trade unions$52,500Mining$106,804

Independent expenditures

In early October 2012, Crossroads GPS announced that it would launch a $16 million advertising buy in national races, of which four were this and three other Senate elections.[43]

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
align=left The Cook Political Report[44] November 1, 2012
align=left Inside Elections[45] November 2, 2012
align=left Sabato's Crystal Ball[46] November 5, 2012
align=left Real Clear Politics[47] November 5, 2012

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Heidi
Heitkamp (D)
Rick
Berg (R)
OtherUndecided
Pharos Research[48] November 2–5, 2012503± 4.1%47% align=center49%4%
Pharos Research[49] October 26–28, 2012752± 3.6% align=center50%48%2%
Mason-Dixon[50] October 26–28, 2012625± 4.0%45% align=center47%8%
The Mellman Group (D-Heitkamp)[51] October 21–24, 2012600± 4.0% align=center48%44%7%
Pharos Research[52] October 19–21, 2012807± 3.4% align=center49%48%3%
The Mellman Group (D-Heitkamp)[53] October 16–19, 2012600± 4.0% align=center45%42%13%
Rasmussen Reports[54] October 17–18, 2012600± 4.0%45% align=center50%5%
Essman Research[55] October 12–15, 2012500± 4.4%40% align=center50%10%
Mason-Dixon[56] October 3–5, 2012625± 4.0%47%47%6%
DFM Research (D)[57] September 24–27, 2012600± 4.0% align=center48%44%8%
DFM Research (D)[58] July 24–26, 2012400± 4.9% align=center50%44%6%
Rasmussen Reports[59] July 10–11, 2012400± 5.0%40% align=center49%2%8%
Mason-DixonJune 4–6, 2012625± 4.0% align=center47%46%7%
Essman ResearchMay 3–8, 2012500± 4.3%44% align=center51%5%
DFM Research (D)[60] April 18–26, 2012478± 4.5% align=center49%44%1%6%

Results By County

CountyHeidi Heitkamp
Democratic–NPL
Rick Berg
Republican
Write-inMarginTotal
votes
data-sort-type="number" data-sort-type="number" %data-sort-type="number" data-sort-type="number" %data-sort-type="number" data-sort-type="number" %data-sort-type="number" data-sort-type="number" %
Adams47336.9080662.8730.23-333-25.971,282
Barnes3,18157.512,32942.11210.3885215.405,531
Benson1,45367.0870932.7340.1874434.452,166
Billings16027.9241271.9010.17-252-43.98573
Bottineau1,63646.331,87553.10200.57-239-6.773,531
Bowman62136.291,08663.4740.23-465-27.181,711
Burke36035.2965764.4130.29-731-29.121,020
Burleigh19,28444.7923,53854.672310.54-4,254-9.8843,053
Cass41,48056.5131,56943.003590.499,91113.5173,408
Cavalier1,08752.4997747.1870.341105.312,071
Dickey1,12544.431,39955.2580.32-274-10.922,532
Divide59250.9556748.8030.26252.151,162
Dunn74636.711,28363.1430.15-537-26.432,032
Eddy69360.0045539.3970.6123820.611,155
Emmons70937.851,15261.51120.64-443-23.661,873
Foster85351.0581048.4780.48432.581,671
Golden Valley26528.5966071.2020.22-395-42.61927
Grand Forks16,54255.6013,10144.041070.363,44111.5629,750
Grant54238.6685360.8470.50-311-22.181,402
Griggs70452.8562847.1500.00765.701,332
Hettinger51137.6384362.0840.29-332-24.451,358
Kidder61346.1970653.2080.60-93-7.011,327
LaMoure1,06548.341,12551.07130.59-60-2.732,203
Logan44642.0061057.4460.56-164-15.441,062
McHenry1,35950.201,33949.4690.33200.742,707
McIntosh64842.3587256.99100.65-224-14.641,530
McKenzie1,22936.022,17763.8060.18-948-26.983,412
McLean2,35747.962,54451.76140.28-187-3.804,915
Mercer1,80740.592,62759.01180.40-820-18.424,452
Morton6,32546.687,13552.66900.66-810-5.9813,550
Mountrail1,74550.921,67348.8290.26722.103,427
Nelson99359.5067040.1460.3632319.361,669
Oliver44644.3355555.1750.50-109-10.841,006
Pembina1,67251.301,57948.4580.25932.853,259
Pierce1,02747.221,13652.23120.55-109-5.012,175
Ramsey2,76655.182,22944.46180.3653710.725,013
Ransom1,66968.7175531.0850.2191437.632,429
Renville58046.0067653.6150.40-96-7.611,261
Richland4,44558.393,13541.181021.311,31017.217,613
Rolette3,66280.0890219.7290.202,76060.364,573
Sargent1,32165.6667933.75120.6064231.912,012
Sheridan29936.2952163.2340.49-222-26.94824
Sioux96383.5218516.0550.4377867.471,153
Slope14933.4829466.0720.45-100-32.59445
Stark4,11035.637,39364.09320.28-3,283-28.4611,535
Steele64161.6339838.2710.1024323.361,040
Stutsman4,80050.614,65449.07300.321461.549,484
Towner69959.3947240.1060.5122719.291,177
Traill2,31159.061,58940.61130.3372218.453,913
Walsh2,64554.942,15144.68180.3749410.264,814
Ward11,23044.4513,88854.971450.57-2,658-10.5225,263
Wells98241.591,36357.73160.68-38116.142,361
Williams3,14232.376,54167.38240.25-3,399-35.019,707
Totals161,16350.23158,28249.331,4060.442,4920.9320,851

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

See also

External links

Official campaign websites (Archived)

Notes and References

  1. Web site: 2012 General Election Turnout Rates . . Dr. Michael McDonald . February 9, 2013 . April 6, 2013 . https://web.archive.org/web/20130424003112/http://elections.gmu.edu/Turnout_2012G.html . April 24, 2013 . dead . mdy-all .
  2. Web site: North Dakota election calendar. July 2011. August 17, 2011. Secretary of State.
  3. News: Heidi Heitkamp scores upset win in North Dakota. Kate Nocera. Politico. November 7, 2012. April 17, 2014.
  4. Web site: Can Heitkamp Win Again in Red North Dakota?. www.realclearpolitics.com. 2019-10-21.
  5. Web site: The Associated Press . 2024-02-22 . North Dakota Republican Sen. Kevin Cramer says he's seeking reelection . 2024-02-23 . Toronto Star . en.
  6. News: ND Democrats set their fall legislative ticket . . . March 17, 2012 . March 29, 2012.
  7. News: Daum. Kristen M. SPECULATION NO MORE: Heitkamp announces U.S. Senate run. November 8, 2011. Flickertales from The Hill. November 8, 2011. https://web.archive.org/web/20120716024945/http://ndpolitics.areavoices.com/?p=92261. July 16, 2012. dead. mdy-all.
  8. Web site: Nodland. Chad. Tom Potter: I'm Running For Senate. NorthDecoder.com. October 25, 2011. October 25, 2011. https://web.archive.org/web/20120402105111/http://www.northdecoder.com/Latest/tom-potter-im-running-for-senate.html. April 2, 2012. dead. mdy-all.
  9. Web site: Potter drops Senate bid. February 24, 2012. February 25, 2012. The Bismarck Tribune. Nick. Smith.
  10. Web site: Conrad will not run for re-election in 2012. January 18, 2011. January 18, 2011. Grand Forks Herald. Chuck. Haga. https://archive.today/20121216121710/http://www.grandforksherald.com/event/article/id/190488. December 16, 2012. dead. mdy-all.
  11. News: Miller. Joshua. Ex-State Rep. Pam Gulleson Launches House Bid. October 25, 2011. Roll Call. September 26, 2011. November 16, 2011. https://web.archive.org/web/20111116223523/http://www.rollcall.com/issues/57_34/ex_state_rep_pam_gulleson_launches_house_bid_iowa-209010-1.html. dead.
  12. News: State Sen. Schneider: 2012 U.S. Senate race not now 'in the cards'. October 25, 2011. Grand Forks Herald. August 1, 2011.
  13. Web site: Heitkamp telling Dems she's running for Senate. November 1, 2011. February 25, 2012. Politico. David. Catanese.
  14. Web site: Retirements Shuffle 2012 Senate Landscape. January 18, 2011. January 18, 2011. Roll Call. Tricia. Miller. January 21, 2011. https://web.archive.org/web/20110121004957/http://www.rollcall.com/news/-202576-1.html. dead.
  15. Web site: Neither party lacking Senate contenders. January 18, 2011. January 18, 2011. Bismarck Tribune. Rebecca. Beitsch.
  16. News: West Virginia, North Dakota Senate Race Ratings Change. October 25, 2011. Roll Call. April 11, 2011. Trygstad, Kyle. Toeplitz, Shira. September 17, 2011. https://web.archive.org/web/20110917020258/http://www.rollcall.com/news/west_virginia_north_dakota_senate_race_ratings_change-204812-1.html. dead.
  17. Web site: Club For Growth Slams Berg. April 28, 2011. April 29, 2011. National Journal. Sean. Sullivan. https://web.archive.org/web/20120406011444/http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2011/04/club-for-growth-8.php. April 6, 2012. dead. mdy-all.
  18. Web site: Schneider says he hasn't ruled out running for Conrad's Senate seat. January 19, 2011. January 19, 2011. The Jamestown Sun. Ben. Rodgers.
  19. Web site: Democrat Taylor joins race for N.D. governor. December 12, 2011. December 19, 2011. Grand Forks Herald.
  20. News: Divide within North Dakota's GOP creates friction in endorsement process . Kristen . Daum . . March 29, 2012 . March 29, 2012 .
  21. News: Sobel. Julie. Berg Enters N.D. Senate Race. October 25, 2011. National Journal

    Hotline On Call

    . May 16, 2011. https://web.archive.org/web/20111104070503/http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2011/05/berg-enters-nd.php. November 4, 2011. dead. mdy-all.
  22. News: Toeplitz. Shira. House Freshman Berg Will Run for Senate in North Dakota. October 25, 2011. Roll Call. May 16, 2011. February 16, 2012. https://web.archive.org/web/20120216003338/http://www.rollcall.com/news/house_freshman_berg_will_run_for_senate_in_north_dakota-205672-1.html?pos=hln. dead.
  23. Sand Announces Entry into North Dakota Senate Race. Standard Newswire. October 25, 2011. August 8, 2011.
  24. News: Toeplitz. Shira. N.D. GOP Expecting Competitive House Race. October 25, 2011. Roll Call. May 3, 2011. January 6, 2012. https://web.archive.org/web/20120106020650/http://www.rollcall.com/issues/56_115/North-Dakota-GOP-House-Race-205263-1.html. dead.
  25. News: Catanese. David. N.D. lawmakers unite behind Berg for Senate. October 25, 2011. Politico. April 26, 2011.
  26. Web site: Dalrymple to run in 2012. November 3, 2011. November 3, 2011. Williston Herald. Nick. Smith.
  27. News: Daum. Kristen M. N.D. tax commissioner opts against congressional bid in 2012. October 25, 2011. Flickertales from The Hill. October 13, 2011. https://web.archive.org/web/20111218134641/http://ndpolitics.areavoices.com/?p=92136. December 18, 2011. dead. mdy-all.
  28. News: Daum. Kristen M. Goettle declares as 4th GOP contender in 2012 U.S. House race. November 29, 2011. Flickertales from The Hill. November 29, 2011. https://web.archive.org/web/20120716035323/http://ndpolitics.areavoices.com/?p=92340. July 16, 2012. dead. mdy-all.
  29. News: Beitsch. Rebecca. Sand starts Senate campaign committee. October 25, 2011. Bismarck Tribune. May 13, 2011.
  30. Web site: Kalk to Run for House Instead of Senate in North Dakota. May 20, 2011. May 20, 2011. Roll Call. Kyle. Trygstad. May 23, 2011. https://web.archive.org/web/20110523081746/http://www.rollcall.com/news/Kalk-Drops-Senate-Bid-for-House-205843-1.html. dead.
  31. News: Daum. Kristen M. West Fargo legislator seeks GOP nod in packed U.S. House race. December 5, 2011. Flickertales from The Hill. December 5, 2011. https://web.archive.org/web/20120715201436/http://ndpolitics.areavoices.com/?p=92365. July 15, 2012. dead. mdy-all.
  32. Web site: North Dakota GOPers Target Conrad Seat. December 27, 2010. January 17, 2011. Roll Call. Tricia. Miller. https://web.archive.org/web/20101230174619/http://www.rollcall.com/news/-201928-1.html. December 30, 2010. live.
  33. Web site: Kelly Schmidt to seek third term as North Dakota treasurer. February 20, 2012. February 25, 2012. The Forum of Fargo-Moorhead. Teri. Finneman.
  34. News: Gonzales. Nathan L. Berg Senate Run Likely in North Dakota. October 25, 2011. Roll Call. April 26, 2011. https://web.archive.org/web/20110429182449/http://www.rollcall.com/news/Rick-Berg-Senate-Bid-Likely-205147-1.html. April 29, 2011. live.
  35. Web site: In Focus with Bismarck Mayor John Warford. June 1, 2011. February 25, 2012. Great Plains Examiner. Matt. Bunk. https://web.archive.org/web/20110613100734/http://www.greatplainsexaminer.com/2011/06/01/in-focus-with-bismarck-mayor-john-warford. June 13, 2011. dead.
  36. News: June 7, 2012 . Heitkamp Leads Berg in Latest Poll . . . dead . https://web.archive.org/web/20120607224903/http://www.valleynewslive.com/story/18730731/exclusive-poll-results-5pm-6pm-tonight . June 7, 2012.
  37. News: Daum . Kristen . May 17, 2012 . Poll: Berg leads Heitkamp in U.S. Senate race . . . dead . https://web.archive.org/web/20120523204346/http://www.inforum.com/event/article/id/361074/ . May 23, 2012.
  38. News: September 6, 2012 . Candidate throws his name into the U.S. Senate Race . . . https://web.archive.org/web/20120910070513/http://www.wday.com/event/article/id/68540/ . September 10, 2012.
  39. Web site: 2012 House and Senate Campaign Finance for North Dakota HEITKAMP, HEIDI . fec.gov . November 26, 2012 . December 17, 2012 . https://web.archive.org/web/20110421070013/http://fec.gov/disclosurehs/HSCandDetail.do . April 21, 2011 . dead .
  40. Web site: 2012 House and Senate Campaign Finance for North Dakota BERG, RICHARD A . fec.gov . November 26, 2012 . December 17, 2012 . https://web.archive.org/web/20110421070013/http://fec.gov/disclosurehs/HSCandDetail.do . April 21, 2011 . dead .
  41. Web site: North Dakota Senate 2012 Race . September 2, 2022 . OpenSecrets.
  42. Web site: North Dakota Senate 2012 Race: Top Industries . September 2, 2022 . OpenSecrets.
  43. News: Crossroads launches $16 million buy in Senate, presidential contests. Politico.com. Haberman. Maggie. October 2, 2012. October 2, 2012.
  44. Web site: 2012 Senate Race Ratings for November 1, 2012 . The Cook Political Report . September 20, 2018 . August 29, 2018 . https://web.archive.org/web/20180829035855/https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/senate-race-ratings/139117 . dead .
  45. Web site: 2012 Senate Ratings . September 20, 2018 . Senate Ratings . The Rothenberg Political Report.
  46. Web site: 2012 Senate . September 20, 2018 . Sabato's Crystal Ball.
  47. Web site: 2012 Elections Map - Battle for the Senate 2012 . Real Clear Politics . September 20, 2018.
  48. https://www.scribd.com/doc/112348675/ND-Pharos-Poll Pharos Research
  49. Web site: North Dakota Polling Report: 10/26/12-10/28/12 . dead . https://web.archive.org/web/20141020034108/http://www.pharosresearchgroup.com/Home/North%20Dakota.pdf . October 20, 2014 . Pharos Research Group.
  50. https://web.archive.org/web/20121103023432/http://www.valleynewslive.com/story/19945942/valley-news-live-mason-dixon-poll Mason-Dixon
  51. http://gallery.mailchimp.com/6ba6160c0880598e39e1b623b/files/12mem1025_f_Heitkamp.pdf The Mellman Group (D-Heitkamp)
  52. https://www.scribd.com/doc/111054878/North-Dakota-Pharos-Research-Oct-2012 Pharos Research
  53. http://images.politico.com/global/2012/10/heitkamp22.html The Mellman Group (D-Heitkamp)
  54. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_senate_elections/north_dakota/election_2012_north_dakota_senate Rasmussen Reports
  55. https://web.archive.org/web/20121026061508/http://www.inforum.com/event/article/id/377890/ Essman Research
  56. https://web.archive.org/web/20121011025651/http://www.valleynewslive.com/story/19767078/poll Mason-Dixon
  57. http://images.politico.com/global/2012/09/120928_september_survey.pdf DFM Research (D)
  58. http://images.politico.com/global/2012/07/survey_july_2012_dem-npl.html DFM Research (D)
  59. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/archive/election_2012_archive/north_dakota/north_dakota_senate_berg_r_49_heitkamp_d_40 Rasmussen Reports
  60. https://www.scribd.com/document/91567464/DFM-Survey-Memo-4-27 DFM Research (D)