2012 United States Senate election in New York explained

Election Name:2012 United States Senate election in New York
Country:New York
Flag Image:Flag of New York (1909–2020).svg
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2010 United States Senate special election in New York
Previous Year:2010 (special)
Next Election:2018 United States Senate election in New York
Next Year:2018
Election Date:November 6, 2012
Turnout:53.2% (voting eligible)[1]
Image1:Kirsten Gillibrand, official portrait, 112th Congress.jpg
Nominee1:Kirsten Gillibrand
Party1:Democratic Party (United States)
Popular Vote1:4,822,330
Percentage1:72.21%
Nominee2:Wendy Long
Party2:Republican Party (United States)
Alliance2:Conservative Party of New York
Popular Vote2:1,758,702
Percentage2:26.34%
U.S. Senator
Before Election:Kirsten Gillibrand
Before Party:Democratic Party (United States)
After Election:Kirsten Gillibrand
After Party:Democratic Party (United States)

The 2012 United States Senate election in New York took place on November 6, 2012, concurrently with the U.S. presidential election as well as other elections to the United States Senate and House of Representatives as well as various state and local elections.

Governor David Paterson appointed then-U.S. Representative Kirsten Gillibrand to serve as U.S. Senator from New York until the 2010 special election, succeeding former U.S. Senator Hillary Clinton, who resigned to serve as U.S. Secretary of State in the Obama administration. Gillibrand won the special election in 2010 with 62.95% of the vote over former U.S. Representative Joseph DioGuardi.

Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Kirsten Gillibrand won re-election to her first full term. She was opposed in the general election by Wendy Long (who ran on the Republican and Conservative Party tickets) and by three minor party candidates. Gillibrand was re-elected with 72% of the vote. She carried 60 out of 62 counties statewide, losing only Wyoming and Alleghany counties.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Gillibrand was endorsed by the Independence Party of New York and the Working Families Party and appeared on the ballot lines of both of those parties in the general election.[3] [4]

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

The 2012 New York State Republican Convention took place on March 16, 2012.[8] Candidates Wendy Long, George Maragos, and Congressman Bob Turner each reached the threshold of 25% of the weighted vote necessary to qualify for the June 26 primary ballot; however, none of the candidates achieved a majority.[9] Long prevailed by a sizeable margin in the June 26 Republican primary, receiving 50.9% of the vote; Turner received 35.6% and Maragos 13.5%.[10]

Long was designated as the nominee for the Conservative Party of New York State, and appeared on its ballot line in the general election as well as the Republican Party line.[4] [11]

Withdrew

Polling

Poll sourceWendy
Long
George
Maragos
Bob
Turner
OtherUndecided
align=left Quinnipiac[14] March 28 – April 2, 2012372±5.1%11%7%19%2%61%
align=left Siena College[15] April 1–4, 2012218±6.6%10%5%19%66%
align=left Siena College[16] May 6–10, 2012205±6.8%12%6%15%67%
align=left Siena College[17] June 3–6, 2012201±6.9%11%3%16%70%

Endorsements

Source: Update for US Senate Election NY 2012: http://www.elections.ny.gov/NYSBOE/elections/2012/General/USSenator_07292013.pdf

Results

General election

Candidates

Debates

Fundraising

Candidate (party)ReceiptsDisbursementsCash on handDebt
Kirsten Gillibrand (D)$13,778,867$3,734,097$10,541,156$0
Wendy Long (R)$336,976$240,564$96,411$250,077
Chris Edes (L)$2,017$668$1,348$0
John Mangelli (I)$43,819$43,820$0$22,120
Source: Federal Election Commission[19] [20] [21] [22]

Top contributors

[23]

Kirsten GillibrandContributionWendy LongContribution
Boies, Schiller & Flexner$394,664Citizens United$10,000
Davis Polk & Wardwell$314,600Susan B. Anthony List$10,000
Corning Inc.$150,650Davis, Polk & Wardwell$8,500
JPMorgan Chase & Co$143,800Kirkland & Ellis$7,000
Morgan Stanley$140,800Wachtell, Lipton, Rosen & Katz$6,000
National Amusements Inc.$126,850Alta Partners$5,500
Goldman Sachs$117,400Actimize$5,000
Blackstone Group$106,700Carlyle Group$5,000
Sullivan & Cromwell$100,750Credit Suisse Group$5,000
Simpson, Thacher & Bartlett$95,700Crow Holdings$5,000

Top industries

[24]

Kirsten GillibrandContributionWendy LongContribution
Lawyers/law firms$4,050,294Lawyers/law firms$38,550
Financial Institutions$2,748,640Financial institutions$31,750
Real estate$1,257,504Real estate$26,250
Retired$921,738Retired$25,050
Women's issues$853,517Misc. finance$16,000
Entertainment industry$764,677Women's issues$15,150
Lobbyists$723,596Republican/Conservative$11,250
Misc. finance$644,953Education$7,250
Business services$621,286Misc. business$7,000
Insurance$518,275Construction services$5,000

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
align=left The Cook Political Report[25] November 1, 2012
align=left Sabato's Crystal Ball[26] November 5, 2012
align=left Rothenberg Political Report[27] November 2, 2012
align=left Real Clear Politics[28] November 5, 2012

Polling

Poll sourceKirsten
Gillibrand (D)
Wendy
Long (R)
OtherUndecided
align=left QuinnipiacMarch 28 – April 2, 20121,597±2.5%58%25%1%13%
align=left Siena CollegeApril 1–4, 2012808±3.4%63%23%14%
align=left Siena CollegeMay 6–10, 2012766±3.5%60%26%14%
align=left Quinnipiac[29] May 22–28, 20121,504±2.5%58%24%1%15%
align=left Siena CollegeJune 3–6, 2012807±3.4%65%22%12%
align=left Siena College[30] July 10–15, 2012758±3.6%62%25%13%
align=left Quinnipiac[31] July 17–23, 20121,779±2.3%57%24%1%16%
align=left Siena College[32] August 14–19, 2012671±3.8%65%22%13%
align=left Quinnipiac[33] September 4–9, 20121,468±2.5%64%27%9%
align=left Marist[34] October 18–21, 2012565±4.1%68%24%8%
align=left Siena College[35] October 22–24, 2012750±3.6%67%24%8%
align=left SurveyUSA[36] October 23–25, 2012554±4.1%64%22%7%7%

with George Maragos

Poll sourceKirsten
Gillibrand (D)
George
Maragos (R)
OtherUndecided
align=left Siena College[37] November 8–13, 2011803±3.5%65%17%18%
align=left Siena College[38] January 8–12, 2012805±3.5%63%22%15%
align=left Siena College[39] January 29 – February 1, 2012807±3.4%63%20%17%
align=left SurveyUSA[40] February 24–26, 2012518±4.4%53%23%25%
align=left Siena College[41] February 26–29, 2012808±3.4%68%19%13%
align=left QuinnipiacMarch 28 – April 2, 20121,597±2.5%57%23%2%15%
align=left Siena CollegeApril 1–4, 2012808±3.4%65%21%14%
align=left Siena CollegeMay 6–10, 2012766±3.5%60%25%15%
align=left QuinnipiacMay 22–28, 20121,504±2.5%57%24%1%16%
align=left Siena CollegeJune 3–6, 2012807±3.4%65%23%13%

with Bob Turner

Poll sourceKirsten
Gillibrand (D)
Bob
Turner (R)
OtherUndecided
align=left QuinnipiacMarch 28 – April 2, 20121,597±2.5%57%27%1%13%
align=left Siena CollegeApril 1–4, 2012808±3.4%65%24%11%
align=left Siena CollegeMay 6–10, 2012766±3.5%59%25%15%
align=left QuinnipiacMay 22–28, 20121,504±2.5%56%26%0%15%
align=left Siena CollegeJune 3–6, 2012807±3.4%63%25%11%

with Marc Cenedella

with Harry Wilson

Poll sourceKirsten
Gillibrand (D)
Harry
Wilson (R)
Undecided
align=left Siena CollegeNovember 8–13, 2011803±3.5%63%21%16%
align=left Siena CollegeJanuary 8–12, 2012805±3.5%63%23%14%

Results

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Gillibrand won all 27 congressional districts, including six held by Republicans.[43] She won all but two with over 60% of the vote, with the 27th being her weakest with only 55% of the vote.

DistrictGillibrandLongRepresentative
62.13%36.58%Tim Bishop
63.33%35.51%Peter T. King
62.51%36.28%Steve Israel
66.17%32.88%Carolyn McCarthy
92.327.21%Gregory Meeks
75.99%22.58%Grace Meng
90.67%7.65%Nydia Velázquez
91.75%7.35%Hakeem Jeffries
89.59%9.33%Yvette Clarke
81.28%17.15%Jerry Nadler
64.5%34.23%Michael Grimm
81.74%16.49%Carolyn Maloney
95.05%3.91%Charles B. Rangel
84.85%13.76%Joe Crowley
96.89%2.7%Jose Serrano
79.78%19.23%Eliot Engel
68.41%30.33%Nita Lowey
64.33%34.22%Sean Patrick Maloney
65.98%32.34%Chris Gibson
71.07%27.26%Paul Tonko
65.41%33.1%Bill Owens
61.77%36.05%Richard L. Hanna
58.95%39.13%Tom Reed
65.34%32.06%Dan Maffei
66.81%31.45%Louise Slaughter
73.31%24.99%Brian Higgins
55.55%42.71%Chris Collins

See also

External links

Official campaign websites

Notes and References

  1. Web site: 2012 General Election Turnout Rates . . Dr. Michael McDonald . February 9, 2013 . April 6, 2013 . https://web.archive.org/web/20130424003112/http://elections.gmu.edu/Turnout_2012G.html . April 24, 2013 . dead . mdy-all .
  2. News: Day after win, NY Sen. Gillibrand is running again. November 3, 2010. December 28, 2010. Associated Press. Michael. Hill.
  3. Web site: State Independence Party Backs Gillibrand. March 12, 2012. May 6, 2012. Capital Tonight. Michael. Johnson. https://web.archive.org/web/20120320234654/http://www.capitaltonight.com/2012/03/state-independence-party-backs-gillibrand/. March 20, 2012. dead. mdy-all.
  4. News: New York Democrats back Kirsten Gillibrand for US Senate; Conservatives pick Wendy Long. March 19, 2012. May 6, 2012. The Post-Standard. Associated Press.
  5. Web site: A New Challenger To Gillibrand?. January 29, 2012. January 30, 2012. Capital Tonight. Liz. Benjamin. https://web.archive.org/web/20120208054642/http://www.capitaltonight.com/2012/01/a-new-challenger-to-gillibrand/. February 8, 2012. dead. mdy-all.
  6. Web site: U.S. Senate Hopeful Speaks to Rockland Republicans - Pearl River, NY Patch. patch.com. June 3, 2011. https://web.archive.org/web/20110727021844/http://pearlriver.patch.com/articles/us-senate-hopeful-speaks-to-rockland-republicans. July 27, 2011. dead. mdy-all.
  7. Web site: Bob Turner Announces U.S. Senate Campaign Against Kirsten Gillibrand. March 13, 2012. March 13, 2012. Politicker. Colin. Campbell.
  8. Seiler, Casey (February 19, 2012). Save the date: GOP plans March 16 convention. Capitol Confidential (Albany Times-Union). Retrieved February 19, 2012.
  9. Benjamin, Liz (March 16, 2012). Three-Way GOP Primary For US Senate. Capital Tonight. Retrieved March 16, 2012.
  10. News: Long wins NY Senate GOP primary to face Gillibrand . June 27, 2012 . Wall Street Journal . News Corporation . June 27, 2012 . dead . https://web.archive.org/web/20120628012110/http://online.wsj.com/article/AP3ee080e11183422da069a5a159256e37.html . June 28, 2012 .
  11. News: Long wins NY Senate GOP primary to face Gillibrand. WSJ.com. dead. https://web.archive.org/web/20120628012110/http://online.wsj.com/article/AP3ee080e11183422da069a5a159256e37.html. June 28, 2012.
  12. Web site: Joe Carvin of Rye also challenging Gillibrand. February 29, 2012. February 29, 2012. Albany Times Union. Jimmy. Vielkind.
  13. Benjamin, Elizabeth (March 16, 2012). Carvin Out Of US Senate Race (Updated). Capital Tonight. Retrieved March 16, 2012.
  14. http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/new-york-state/release-detail?ReleaseID=1733 Quinnipiac
  15. http://www.siena.edu/uploadedfiles/home/parents_and_community/community_page/sri/sny_poll/SNY0412%20Crosstabs.pdf Siena College
  16. http://www.siena.edu/uploadedfiles/home/parents_and_community/community_page/sri/sny_poll/SNY%20May%202012%20Poll%20Release%20--%20FINAL.pdf Siena College
  17. https://web.archive.org/web/20120901121410/http://www.siena.edu/uploadedfiles/home/SNY%20June%2011%202012%20Poll%20Release%20--%20FINAL.pdf Siena College
  18. Web site: Liberal Alternatives To Kirsten Gillibrand. April 16, 2012. May 6, 2012. Irregular Times. https://web.archive.org/web/20120505213150/http://irregulartimes.com/index.php/archives/2012/04/16/liberal-alternatives-to-kirsten-gillibrand/. May 5, 2012. dead. mdy-all.
  19. Web site: Gillibrand Campaign Finances. fec.gov.
  20. Web site: Long Campaign Finances. fec.gov.
  21. Web site: Mangelli Campaign Finances. fec.gov.
  22. Web site: Edes Campaign Finances. fec.gov.
  23. Web site: New York Senate Race. opensecrets.org.
  24. Web site: Kansas District 04 Race. opensecrets.org.
  25. Web site: 2012 Senate Race Ratings for November 1, 2012 . The Cook Political Report . September 20, 2018 . August 29, 2018 . https://web.archive.org/web/20180829035855/https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/senate-race-ratings/139117 . dead .
  26. Web site: 2012 Senate . Sabato's Crystal Ball . September 20, 2018.
  27. Web site: 2012 Senate Ratings . Senate Ratings . The Rothenberg Political Report . September 20, 2018.
  28. Web site: 2012 Elections Map - Battle for the Senate 2012 . Real Clear Politics . September 20, 2018.
  29. http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/new-york-state/release-detail?ReleaseID=1755 Quinnipiac
  30. https://web.archive.org/web/20121004191433/http://www.siena.edu/uploadedfiles/home/parents_and_community/community_page/sri/sny_poll/SNY%20July%202012%20Poll%20Release%20--%20FINAL-1.pdf Siena College
  31. http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/new-york-state/release-detail?ReleaseID=1779 Quinnipiac
  32. https://web.archive.org/web/20121004191406/http://www.siena.edu/uploadedfiles/home/sri/SNY%20August%202012%20Poll%20Release%20--%20FINAL.pdf Siena College
  33. http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/new-york-state/release-detail?ReleaseID=1796 Quinnipiac
  34. http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/nyspolls/NY121018/Gillibrand_Schumer_Cuomo_Obama/Complete%20October%2024th,%202012%20NYS%20NY1-YNN-Marist%20Poll%20Release%20and%20Tables.pdf Marist
  35. https://web.archive.org/web/20121030003928/http://siena.edu/uploadedfiles/home/parents_and_community/community_page/sri/sny_poll/SNY%20october%202012%20Poll%20Release%20--%20final.pdf Siena College
  36. http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=83b2c728-72f7-4422-b09c-bc923c33dc69 SurveyUSA
  37. https://web.archive.org/web/20111119120328/http://www.siena.edu/uploadedfiles/home/parents_and_community/community_page/sri/sny_poll/SNY%20November%202011%20Poll%20Release%20--%20FINAL.pdf Siena College
  38. http://www.siena.edu/uploadedfiles/home/parents_and_community/community_page/sri/sny_poll/SNY%20January%202012%20Poll%20Release%20--%20FINAL.pdf Siena College
  39. https://web.archive.org/web/20120711223128/http://www.siena.edu/uploadedfiles/home/parents_and_community/community_page/sri/sny_poll/SNY_February_2012_Poll_Release_FINAL.pdf Siena College
  40. http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=5897288c-c667-4bc4-be81-23f0d47f5bd8 SurveyUSA
  41. https://web.archive.org/web/20120914075130/http://www.siena.edu/uploadedfiles/home/parents_and_community/community_page/sri/SNY%20March%207%202012_ReleaseFINAL.pdf Siena College
  42. http://www.siena.edu/uploadedfiles/home/parents_and_community/community_page/sri/sny_poll/SNY012912%20Crosstabs.pdf Siena College
  43. Web site: Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts. Daily Kos. 11 August 2020.