2018 United States Senate election in New Mexico explained

Election Name:2018 United States Senate election in New Mexico
Country:New Mexico
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2012 United States Senate election in New Mexico
Previous Year:2012
Next Election:2024 United States Senate election in New Mexico
Next Year:2024
Election Date:November 6, 2018
Turnout:55.0%
Image1:File:Heinrich Official Headshot 2019 (cropped).jpg
Nominee1:Martin Heinrich
Party1:Democratic Party (United States)
Popular Vote1:376,998
Percentage1:54.09%
Nominee2:Mick Rich
Party2:Republican Party (United States)
Popular Vote2:212,813
Percentage2:30.53%
Image3:File:Gary Johnson campaign portrait.jpg
Nominee3:Gary Johnson
Party3:Libertarian Party (United States)
Popular Vote3:107,201
Percentage3:15.38%
Map Size:200px
U.S. Senator
Before Election:Martin Heinrich
Before Party:Democratic Party (United States)
After Election:Martin Heinrich
After Party:Democratic Party (United States)

The 2018 United States Senate election in New Mexico took place on November 6, 2018, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of New Mexico, concurrently with other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections.

Incumbent Democratic Senator Martin Heinrich won re-election to a second term. His opponents were Republican nominee and businessman Mick Rich and Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson, a two-term Republican Governor of New Mexico and two-time candidate for President of the United States.

The candidate filing deadline was March 13, 2018. The Republican and Democratic primary elections were held June 5, 2018.[1] Johnson's results were the highest results for a Libertarian candidate in New Mexico history.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Results

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Declined

Results

Libertarian primary

On July 30, 2018, nominee Aubrey Dunn withdrew from the race. On August 4, former governor Gary Johnson was formally nominated by the Libertarian Party of New Mexico as Dunn's replacement.[7] Johnson accepted his party's nomination on August 13.[8]

Candidates

Declared

Withdrew nomination

Results

General election

Debates

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[11] October 26, 2018
Inside Elections[12] November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[13] November 1, 2018
Fox News[14] November 1, 2018
CNN[15] November 1, 2018
RealClearPolitics[16] November 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEight[17] November 6, 2018
^Highest rating given

Polling

Polls

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Martin
Heinrich (D)		Mick
Rich (R)		Gary
Johnson (L)		Undecided
Research Co.[18] November 1–3, 2018450± 4.6% align=center47%33%11%9%
Carroll Strategies[19] November 1, 20181,202± 2.8% align=center51%38%8%3%
Research & Polling, Inc.[20] October 26 – November 1, 2018993± 3.1% align=center51%31%12%6%
Emerson College[21] October 24–26, 2018936± 3.4% align=center48%32%16%5%
Pacific Market Research[22] October 19–24, 2018400± 4.9% align=center40%28%22%11%
NSON Opinion Strategy (L)[23] September 20–24, 2018932– align=center36%10%28%26%
In Lux Research (L-Elect Liberty PAC)[24] September 16–17, 2018900– align=center38%10%28%24%
Research & Polling, Inc.[25] September 7–13, 2018966± 3.1% align=center47%26%16%–
In Lux Research (L-Elect Liberty PAC)[26] August 2018900– align=center38%13%28%21%
Emerson College[27] August 17–18, 2018500± 4.6% align=center39%11%21%30%
GQR Research (D-TMI)[28] August 2–5, 2018500± 4.4% align=center48%33%17%2%
GBA Strategies (D-Heinrich)[29] August 1–5, 2018800± 3.5% align=center47%29%22%–
The Tarrance Group (R-Rich)[30] July 31 – August 2, 2018500± 4.5% align=center44%30%20%6%
NSON Opinion Strategy (L)[31] July 2018500– align=center39%25%23%12%

with Mick Rich

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Martin
Heinrich (D)		Mick
Rich (R)		Undecided
The Tarrance Group (R-Rich)July 31 – August 2, 2018500± 4.5% align=center55%37%8%
NSON Opinion Strategy (L)[32] July 2018500– align=center47%29%–

with Gary Johnson

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Martin
Heinrich (D)		Gary
Johnson (L)		Undecided
GBA Strategies (D-Heinrich)August 1–5, 2018800± 3.5% align=center50%38%–
In Lux Research (L)[33] July 28–29, 2018525–40% align=center42%–

with Aubrey Dunn

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Martin
Heinrich (D)		Mick
Rich (R)		Aubrey
Dunn (L)		Undecided
NSON Opinion Strategy (L)[34] July 2018500– align=center47%30%7%16%
Carroll Strategies[35] June 15–16, 20181,199± 2.8% align=center50%39%5%6%

County results

Vote breakdown by county[36]
Martin Heinrich
Democrat		Mick Rich
Republican		Gary Johnson
Libertarian		Total
CountyVotes%Votes%Votes%Votes
Bernalillo140,08258.1%61,93225.7%39,27416.3%241,288
Catron55026.9%1,07558.4%21711.8%1,842
Chaves5,27931.7%8,72752.4%2,66616.0%16,672
style='background:#d3d3d3;'Cibola3,92455.1%1,84225.9%1,35519.0%7,121
style='background:#d3d3d3;'Colfax2,33349.9%1,61534.5%73115.6%4,679
style='background:#d3d3d3;'Curry2,79327.4%5,89657.9%1,49814.7%10,187
style='background:#d3d3d3;'De Baca26733.2%34242.5%19624.4%805
style='background:#d3d3d3;'Doña Ana34,65157.0%18,10129.8%8,02913.2%60,781
style='background:#d3d3d3;'Eddy4,83430.7%8,82656.0%2,09513.3%15,755
style='background:#d3d3d3;'Grant6,76357.3%3,59830.5%1,44212.2%11,803
style='background:#d3d3d3;'Guadalupe1,09465.2%29217.4%29217.4%1,678
style='background:#d3d3d3;'Harding19841.2%19941.4%8417.5%481
style='background:#d3d3d3;'Hidalgo79049.5%60738.1%19812.4%1,595
style='background:#d3d3d3;'Lea3,33124.1%8,88264.2%1,62811.8%13,841
style='background:#d3d3d3;'Lincoln2,61733.3%4,12252.5%1,11114.2%7,850
style='background:#d3d3d3;'Los Alamos5,79856.3%2,57625.0%1,92618.7%10,300
style='background:#d3d3d3;'Luna3,00548.9%2,31337.7%82313.4%6,141
style='background:#d3d3d3;'McKinley12,40967.5%2,91515.9%3,04916.6%18,373
style='background:#d3d3d3;'Mora1,56467.4%37216.0%38616.6%2,322
style='background:#d3d3d3;'Otero6,37037.2%8,46049.4%2,29113.4%17,121
style='background:#d3d3d3;'Quay1,01632.9%1,53449.7%53717.4%3,087
style='background:#d3d3d3;'Rio Arriba8,77368.8%1,94515.3%2,03516.0%12,753
style='background:#d3d3d3;'Roosevelt1,27727.6%2,60656.3%75016.2%4,633
style='background:#d3d3d3;'San Juan12,48533.4%18,00248.2%6,87618.4%37,363
style='background:#d3d3d3;'San Miguel6,60971.6%1,29814.1%1,32314.3%9,230
style='background:#d3d3d3;'Sandoval28,19850.9%17,78532.1%9,39717.0%55,380
style='background:#d3d3d3;'Santa Fe49,99474.4%9,54614.2%7,64211.4%67,182
style='background:#d3d3d3;'Sierra1,91740.5%2,04843.3%76716.2%4,732
style='background:#d3d3d3;'Socorro3,40954.7%1,70027.3%1,12918.1%6,238
style='background:#d3d3d3;'Taos10,83874.7%1,55610.7%2,11214.6%14,506
style='background:#d3d3d3;'Torrance1,98236.9%2,43345.3%95117.7%5,366
style='background:#d3d3d3;'Union33422.8%87860.0%25217.2%1,464
style='background:#d3d3d3;'Valencia11,51447.1%8,79035.0%4,13916.9%24,443

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Results by congressional district

Heinrich won all 3 congressional districts.[37]

DistrictHeinrichRichJohnsonRepresentative
57.55%26.28%16.17%Deb Haaland
45.56%40.17%14.27%Xochitl Torres Small
57.52%27.0%15.48%Ben Ray Luján

External links

Official campaign websites

Notes and References

  1. News: United States Senate election in New Mexico, 2018 - Ballotpedia. March 3, 2017. en-US.
  2. News: Who wants to be New Mexico's next governor?. Albuquerque Journal. Coleman. Michael. November 10, 2016. November 10, 2016.
  3. Web site: New Mexico construction contractor announces US Senate bid. April 19, 2017. April 19, 2017. Morgan. Lee. KOB. April 19, 2017. https://web.archive.org/web/20170419205508/http://www.kob.com/politics-news/new-mexico-construction-contractor-announces-us-senate-bid-mick-rich/4458452/. dead.
  4. Web site: Libertarian Party gets a boost in NM. Nmpoliticalreport.com. January 30, 2018. June 11, 2018.
  5. News: Turkey talk: Political drama on the horizon in 2018. Ruidoso News. Keithley. Tim. November 23, 2016. November 23, 2016.
  6. News: New Mexico Governor Rules Out Senate Run. March 15, 2018. U.S. News & World Report. January 18, 2018.
  7. Web site: Libertarian Party courts Gary Johnson for Senate run . Associated Press .
  8. Web site: Boyd. Dan. Gary Johnson makes it official: He's running for U.S. Senate. Albuquerque Journal. August 14, 2018.
  9. Web site: Libertarian Party courts Gary Johnson for Senate run. Associated Press.
  10. Web site: McLaughlin . Jill . Aubrey Dunn withdraws from U.S. Senate race . Los Alamos Monitor . July 30, 2018 . July 30, 2018 . https://web.archive.org/web/20180730201100/https://www.lamonitor.com/content/aubrey-dunn-withdraws-us-senate-race . dead .
  11. Web site: 2018 Senate Race Ratings for October 26, 2018. The Cook Political Report. March 13, 2021.
  12. Web site: 2018 Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. March 13, 2021.
  13. Web site: 2018 Crystal Ball Senate race ratings. Sabato's Crystal Ball. September 10, 2018.
  14. Web site: 2018 Senate Power Rankings. Fox News. September 10, 2018.
  15. Web site: Key Races: Senate. September 10, 2018.
  16. Web site: Battle for the Senate 2018. September 10, 2018.
  17. News: New Mexico - 2018 Senate Forecast. Silver. Nate. 2018-09-11. FiveThirtyEight. 2018-11-01. en-US.
  18. https://researchco.ca/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Tables_Midterms_05Nov2018.pdf Research Co.
  19. https://www.kob.com/kobtvimages/repository/cs/files/new%20poll%20results.pdf Carroll Strategies
  20. https://www.abqjournal.com/1241736/herrell-torres-small-locked-in-tight-race-for-congress.html Research & Polling, Inc.
  21. https://www.emerson.edu/news-events/emerson-college-today/emerson-poll-democrats-favored-pick-governorships-mi-nm-hold-us-senate-seat-nj Emerson College
  22. https://www.krqe.com/news/politics-governement/elections/krqe-news-13-statewide-new-mexico-poll/1552195786 Pacific Market Research
  23. https://web.archive.org/web/20180928003410/https://electliberty.com/frequencies-sept-26/ NSON Opinion Strategy (L)
  24. http://thejacknews.com/politics/september-poll-gary-johnson/ In Lux Research (L-Elect Liberty PAC)
  25. https://www.abqjournal.com/1221446/heinrich-leads-in-threeway-senate-race.html Research & Polling, Inc.
  26. https://electliberty.com/polls/ In Lux Research (L-Elect Liberty PAC)
  27. https://web.archive.org/web/20181107074042/https://www.emerson.edu/sites/default/files/Files/Academics/ecp-pr-nm-8.19.18.pdf Emerson College
  28. https://majorityinstitute.com/latest/heinrich-leads-senate-pack-johnson-distant-third GQR Research (D-TMI)
  29. https://www.scribd.com/document/385670682/NM-Sen-GBA-Strategies-for-Martin-Heinrich-August-2018 GBA Strategies (D-Heinrich)
  30. https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BygPDvU_T-LiVmtyNktMWFlmSTdJM2tmN1FPcDJOMXl3ZzZN/view The Tarrance Group (R-Rich)
  31. https://electliberty.com/polls/ NSON Opinion Strategy (L)
  32. http://thejacknews.com/politics/elections/2018/gary-johnson-puts-new-mexico-senate-race-in-play/ NSON Opinion Strategy (L)
  33. http://thejacknews.com/politics/elections/2018/gary-johnson-puts-new-mexico-senate-race-in-play/ In Lux Research (L)
  34. https://web.archive.org/web/20180927050326/https://electliberty.com/new-mexico-statewide-frequencies/ NSON Opinion Strategy (L)
  35. http://www.carrollstrategies.net/blog/2018/6/19/new-carroll-poll Carroll Strategies
  36. Web site: New Mexico - Election Night Results . June 18, 2019 . June 11, 2019 . https://web.archive.org/web/20190611132329/http://electionresults.sos.state.nm.us/resultsCTY.aspx?type=FED&rid=4898&osn=180&map=CTY . dead .
  37. Web site: Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts. Daily Kos. 11 August 2020.

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