2012 United States Senate election in New Mexico explained

Election Name:	2012 United States Senate election in New Mexico
Country:	New Mexico
Type:	presidential
Ongoing:	no
Previous Election:	2006 United States Senate election in New Mexico
Previous Year:	2006
Next Election:	2018 United States Senate election in New Mexico
Next Year:	2018
Image1:	Martin Heinrich, official portrait, 112th Congress crop.jpg
Nominee1:	Martin Heinrich
Party1:	Democratic Party (United States)
Popular Vote1:	395,717
Percentage1:	51.01%
Nominee2:	Heather Wilson
Party2:	Republican Party (United States)
Popular Vote2:	351,259
Percentage2:	45.28%
Map Size:	230px
U.S. Senator
Before Election:	Jeff Bingaman
Before Party:	Democratic Party (United States)
After Election:	Martin Heinrich
After Party:	Democratic Party (United States)

The 2012 United States Senate election in New Mexico took place on November 6, 2012, concurrently with the 2012 U.S. presidential election as well as other elections to the United States Senate and House of Representatives as well as various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Jeff Bingaman decided to retire instead of running for reelection to a sixth term.^[1] Democratic U.S. Representative Martin Heinrich won the open seat.

Background

Incumbent Jeff Bingaman won re-election to a fifth term with 70.61% of the vote against Allen McCulloch in the 2006 U.S. senatorial election in New Mexico.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

• Hector Balderas, state auditor^[2]
• Martin Heinrich, U.S. Representative^[3]

Withdrew

• Martin Chávez, former Albuquerque mayor and 1998 Democratic gubernatorial nominee (withdrew to run for U.S. House)^{[4] [5]}
• Andres Valdez, anti-police brutality social justice activist^[6]

Declined

• Jeff Bingaman, incumbent U.S. senator^[1]
• Diane Denish, former New Mexico lieutenant governor and 2010 Democratic gubernatorial nominee^{[7] [8]}
• Ben Ray Luján, U.S. representative^[9]

Polling

Poll source				Hector Balderas	Martin Heinrich	Other	Undecided
align=left	Public Policy Polling^[10]	June 23–26, 2011	400	± 4.9%	24%		47%	—	29%
align=left	Magellan Strategies^[11]	July 17–18, 2011	636	± 3.9%	21%		54%	—	25%
align=left	Public Policy Polling^[12]	December 10–12, 2011	309	± 5.6%	30%		47%	—	23%
align=left	Public Policy Polling^[13]	April 19–22, 2012	270	± 6%	27%		51%	—	22%
align=left	Albuquerque Journal/Research & Polling^[14]	May 21–24, 2012	741	± 3.6%	26%		51%	—	23%

Results

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

• Greg Sowards, businessman^[15]
• Heather Wilson, former U.S. Representative and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2008^[16]

Withdrew

• Bill English, businessman^[17]
• John Sanchez, Lieutenant Governor of New Mexico and nominee for governor in 2002^[18]

Declined

• Janice Arnold-Jones, former state representative^[16]
• Gary Johnson, former governor (ran for President)^[19]
• Steve Pearce, U.S. Representative, candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2000, and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2008^[20]

Polling

Poll source				Bill English	John Sanchez	Greg Sowards	Heather Wilson	Other	Undecided
align=left	Magellan Strategies^[21]	April 26–27, 2011	801	± 3.5%	—	17%	2%		59%	11%	11%
align=left	Public Policy Polling	June 23–26, 2011	400	± 4.9%	4%	24%	8%		52%	—	12%
align=left	Magellan Strategies^[22]	July 17–18, 2011	799	± 3.5%	2%	21%	5%		56%	—	16%
align=left	Public Policy Polling^[23]	December 10–12, 2011	300	± 5.7%	3%	20%	6%		55%	—	16%
align=left	Albuquerque Journal^[24]	May 21–24, 2012	504	± 4.4%	—	—	20%		66%	—	14%

Results

General election

Candidates

• Jon Barrie^[25] (Independent American Party), alternative medicine practitioner and Air Force veteran^[26]
• Martin Heinrich (D), U.S. Representative
• Heather Wilson (R), former U.S. Representative and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2008

Debates

• Complete video of debate, October 17, 2012 - C-SPAN
• Complete video of debate, October 25, 2012 - C-SPAN

Fundraising

Candidate (party)	Receipts	Disbursements	Cash on hand	Debt
	Martin Heinrich (D)	$3,883,992	$2,174,712	$1,763,753	$89,424
	Heather Wilson (R)	$4,048,847	$2,416,328	$1,632,517	$0
	Jon Barrie (I)	$705	$1,150	$0	$445
Source: Federal Election Commission^[27] ^[28] ^[29]

Top contributors

^[30]

Martin Heinrich	Contribution	Heather Wilson	Contribution
League of Conservation Voters	$108,634	Elliott Management Corporation	$29,413
JStreetPAC	$67,860	Mewbourne Oil Co	$25,000
University of New Mexico	$24,221	Kelly PAC	$15,000
Robbins Geller Rudman & Dowd LLP	$23,000	Blue Cross & Blue Shield	$14,050
Council for a Livable World	$20,044	Devon Energy	$13,250
National Rural Letter Carriers' Association	$19,000	Murray Energy	$12,800
Comcast Corporation	$11,250	Yates Petroleum	$12,600
Presbyterian Healthcare Services	$11,150	Livingston Group	$12,249
Intel Corp	$10,500	Publix Super Markets	$11,000
American Optometric Association	$10,250	Westport Construction	$10,500

Top industries

^[31]

Martin Heinrich	Contribution	Heather Wilson	Contribution
Lawyers/Law Firms	$322,120	Retired	$355,880
Retired	$270,598	Oil & Gas	$217,500
Lobbyists	$156,480	Leadership PACs	$206,225
Environmental organizations	$145,365	Financial Institutions	$163,888
Leadership PACs	$100,000	Lobbyists	$113,549
Health Professionals	$95,729	Lawyers/Law Firms	$106,852
Pro-Israel	$83,860	Real Estate	$95,990
Public Sector Unions	$67,000	Misc Finance	$72,407
Democratic/Liberal	$64,300	Business Services	$72,078
Casinos/Gambling	$58,550	Mining	$69,200

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
align=left	The Cook Political Report^[32]		November 1, 2012
align=left	Sabato's Crystal Ball^[33]		November 5, 2012
align=left	Rothenberg Political Report^[34]		November 2, 2012
align=left	Real Clear Politics^[35]		November 5, 2012

Polling

Poll source				Martin Heinrich (D)	Heather Wilson (R)	Other	Undecided
align=left	Public Policy Polling^[36]	February 4–6, 2011	545	± 4.2%		50%	39%	—	11%
align=left	Public Policy Polling^[37]	June 23–26, 2011	732	± 3.6%		47%	42%	—	11%
align=left	Public Policy Polling	December 10–12, 2011	500	± 4.4%		47%	40%	—	13%
align=left	Rasmussen Reports^[38]	February 14, 2012	500	± 4.5%		45%	43%	5%	7%
align=left	Rasmussen Reports^[39]	April 3, 2012	500	± 4.5%		46%	42%	7%	6%
align=left	Public Policy Polling	April 19–22, 2012	526	± 4.3%		48%	43%	—	9%
align=left	Public Policy Polling^[40]	July 13–16, 2012	724	± 3.6%		48%	43%	—	9%
align=left	Rasmussen Reports	August 21, 2012	500	± 4.5%		48%	41%	5%	7%
align=left	Albuquerque Journal^[41]	September 3–6, 2012	667	± 3.8%		49%	42%	—	8%
align=left	Public Policy Polling^[42]	September 7–9, 2012	1,122	± 2.9%		50%	41%	—	9%
align=left	We Ask America^[43]	September 25–27, 2012	1,258	± 2.85%		52%	41%	—	7%
align=left	Public Policy Polling^[44]	October 2–3, 2012	778	± n/a%		51%	41%	—	8%
align=left	Rasmussen Reports	October 8, 2012	500	± 4.5%		52%	39%	4%	5%
align=left	Albuquerque Poll Journal^[45]	October 9–11, 2012	658	± 3.8%		48%	39%	4%	9%
align=left	Public Policy Polling^[46]	October 23–24, 2012	727	± n/a%		52%	44%	—	3%
align=left	Albuquerque Poll Journal^[47]	October 23–25, 2012	662	± 3.8%		50%	42%	3%	6%

with Jeff Bingaman

with Hector Balderas

Poll source				Hector Balderas (D)	Greg Sowards (R)	Other	Undecided
align=left	Public Policy Polling	June 23–26, 2011	732	± 3.6%		42%	28%	—	30%
align=left	Public Policy Polling	December 10–12, 2011	500	± 4.4%		44%	30%	—	27%
align=left	Public Policy Polling	April 19–22, 2012	526	± 4.3%		42%	30%	—	28%

Poll source				Hector Balderas (D)	Heather Wilson (R)	Other	Undecided
align=left	Public Policy Polling	June 23–26, 2011	732	± 3.6%		45%	39%	—	16%
align=left	Public Policy Polling	December 10–12, 2011	500	± 4.4%	43%	43%	—	14%
align=left	Rasmussen Reports	February 14, 2012	500	± 4.5%	44%	44%	3%	9%
align=left	Rasmussen Reports	April 3, 2012	500	± 4.5%	42%		43%	5%	9%
align=left	Public Policy Polling	April 19–22, 2012	526	± 4.3%		44%	43%	—	12%

with Ben Ray Luján

with Martin Heinrich

Poll source				Martin Heinrich (D)	Gary Johnson (R)	Other	Undecided
align=left	Public Policy Polling	February 4–6, 2011	545	± 4.2%	43%		44%	—	14%
align=left	Public Policy Polling	December 10–12, 2011	500	± 4.4%	43%	43%	—	14%

Poll source				Martin Heinrich (D)	Greg Sowards (R)	Other	Undecided
align=left	Public Policy Polling	June 23–26, 2011	732	± 3.6%		46%	34%	—	20%
align=left	Public Policy Polling	December 10–12, 2011	500	± 4.4%		49%	31%	—	20%
align=left	Public Policy Polling	April 19–22, 2012	526	± 4.3%		48%	34%	—	18%

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

• Chaves (largest village: Roswell)
• Curry (largest village: Clovis)
• Eddy (largest city: Carlsbad)
• Harding (largest city: Roy)
• Hidalgo (largest city: Lordsburg)
• Lea (largest city: Hobbs)
• Lincoln (largest city: Roidoso)
• Otero (largest city: Alamogordo)
• Quay (largest city: Tucumcari)
• Roosevelt (largest city: Portales)
• Sandoval (largest city: Rancho)
• San Juan (largest city: Farmington)
• Sierra (largest city: Truth or Consequences)
• Torrance (largest city: Moriarty)
• Union (largest city: Clayton)
• Valencia (largest village: Los Lunas)
• De Baca (largest city: Fort Sumner)
• Los Alamos (largest city: Los Alamos)
• Catron (largest city: Reserve)

Results by congressional district

Heinrich won 2 of 3 congressional districts.^[48]

District	Heinrich	Wilson	Representative
		53.5%	43.34%		Michelle Lujan Grisham
		44.37%	51.15%		Steve Pearce
		54.15%	42.42%		Ben Ray Luján

See also

• 2012 United States Senate elections
• 2012 United States House of Representatives elections in New Mexico

External links

• Elections from the New Mexico secretary of state
• Financial information from OpenSecrets.org
• Outside spending at Sunlight Foundation
• Candidate issue positions at On the Issues

Official campaign websites (archived)

• Jon Barrie for U.S. Senate
• Martin Heinrich for U.S. Senate
• Heather Wilson for U.S. Senate

Notes and References

1. News: Bingaman won't run for Senate in 2012. February 19, 2011. February 19, 2011. The Washington Post. Chris. Cillizza.
2. Web site: Balderas Enters N.M. Senate Race Against Heinrich. April 26, 2011. May 13, 2012. Roll Call. Kyle. Trygstad.
3. Web site: Heinrich Makes N.M. Senate Bid Official. April 2, 2011. May 13, 2012. Roll Call. Kyle. Trygstad. April 4, 2011. https://web.archive.org/web/20110404233435/http://www.rollcall.com/news/Martin-Heinrich-Announce-Senate-Bid-204547-1.html. dead.
4. Web site: Chávez is running for Congress; Denish isn't. June 29, 2011. May 13, 2012. NMPolitics.net. Heath. Haussamen.
5. Web site: Chavez sets up primary for Heinrich seat. June 29, 2011. May 13, 2012. Politico. David. Catanese.
6. Web site: Andres Valdez Out of U.S. Senate Race. February 14, 2012. May 13, 2012. Associated Press. Albuquerque Journal. April 25, 2013. https://web.archive.org/web/20130425184555/http://www.abqjournal.com/main/2012/02/14/abqnewsseeker/andres-valdez-out-of-u-s-senate-race.html. dead.
7. Web site: Diane Denish endorses Balderas. July 6, 2011. May 13, 2012. Politico. David. Catanese.
8. Web site: Denish to Endorse Balderas in N.M. Senate Primary. July 6, 2011. May 13, 2012. Roll Call. Kyle. Trygstad.
9. Web site: Ben Ray Lujan won't run for Senate. April 25, 2011. April 25, 2011. Politico. David. Catanese.
10. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NM_630930.pdf Public Policy Polling
11. https://web.archive.org/web/20110815150429/http://www.magellanstrategies.com/web/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/New-Mexico-2012-US-Senate-Democrat-Primary-Survey-Release-071911.pdf Magellan Strategies
12. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_NM_1215925.pdf Public Policy Polling
13. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_NM_424.pdf Public Policy Polling
14. http://www.abqjournal.com/main/2012/05/27/a1/heinrich-wilson-build-wide-leads.html Albuquerque Journal/Research & Polling
15. Web site: Sowards announces candidacy for Senate. December 16, 2010. December 16, 2010. NMPolitics.net. Heath. Haussamen.
16. Web site: Wilson formally enters U.S. Senate race. March 7, 2011. May 13, 2012. NMPolitics.net. Heath. Haussamen.
17. Web site: Republican Candidate Bill English Withdraws from New Mexico U.S. Senate Race, Endorses Sowards. January 11, 2012. May 13, 2012. Tea Party Tribune.
18. Web site: Republican John Sanchez Drops New Mexico Senate Bid. February 9, 2012. May 13, 2012. Roll Call. Kyle. Trygstad. February 13, 2012. https://web.archive.org/web/20120213032419/http://atr.rollcall.com/republican-john-sanchez-drops-new-mexico-senate-bid/. dead.
19. Web site: Former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson will not run for Senate. https://archive.today/20120614051611/http://washingtonexaminer.com/blogs/beltway-confidential/2011/02/former-new-mexico-gov-gary-johnson-will-not-run-senate. dead. June 14, 2012. February 18, 2011. February 18, 2011. The Washington Examiner. Peter. Burns.
20. Web site: Pearce re-election committee has balance of $682K. April 17, 2012. May 13, 2012. Las Cruces Sun-News.
21. http://www.magellanstrategies.com/web/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/Magellan-New-Mexico-2012-US-Senate-GOP-Primary-Survey-Topline-Results-042811.pdf Magellan Strategies
22. http://www.magellanstrategies.com/web/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/New-Mexico-2012-US-Senate-Republican-Primary-Election-Survey-Topline-Results-0718112.pdf Magellan Strategies
23. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_NM_1213925.pdf Public Policy Polling
24. http://www.abqjournal.com/main/2012/05/27/a1/heinrich-wilson-build-wide-leads.html Albuquerque Journal
25. https://web.archive.org/web/20120706181536/http://www.jonbarrieforsenate.com/ Jon Barrie
26. Web site: Independent With Libertarian Bent Announces Bid For US Senate. January 5, 2012. May 13, 2012. Santa Fe Reporter. Joey. Peters.
27. https://web.archive.org/web/20110421070013/http://fec.gov/disclosurehs/HSCandDetail.do Martin Heinrich Campaign Finances
28. https://web.archive.org/web/20110421070013/http://fec.gov/disclosurehs/HSCandDetail.do Heather Wilson Campaign Finances
29. https://web.archive.org/web/20110421070013/http://fec.gov/disclosurehs/HSCandDetail.do Jon Barrie Campaign Finances
30. http://www.opensecrets.org/races/contrib.php?cycle=2012&id=NMS1 Top Contributors 2012 Race: New Mexico Senate
31. http://www.opensecrets.org/races/indus.php?cycle=2012&id=NMS1|Top Donors by Industries (opensecrets.org)
32. Web site: 2012 Senate Race Ratings for November 1, 2012 . The Cook Political Report . September 20, 2018 . August 29, 2018 . https://web.archive.org/web/20180829035855/https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/senate-race-ratings/139117 . dead .
33. Web site: 2012 Senate . Sabato's Crystal Ball . September 20, 2018.
34. Web site: 2012 Senate Ratings . Senate Ratings . The Rothenberg Political Report . September 20, 2018.
35. Web site: 2012 Elections Map - Battle for the Senate 2012 . Real Clear Politics . September 20, 2018.
36. https://web.archive.org/web/20110221181428/http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NM_0208.pdf Public Policy Polling
37. https://web.archive.org/web/20110706154541/http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NM_627513.pdf Public Policy Polling
38. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_senate_elections/new_mexico/new_mexico_senate_heinrich_d_45_wilson_r_43 Rasmussen Reports
39. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_senate_elections/new_mexico/election_2012_new_mexico_senate Rasmussen Reports
40. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_NM_071712.pdf Public Policy Polling
41. http://www.abqjournal.com/main/2012/09/09/news/heinrich-leads-wilson-in-us-senate-contest.html Albuquerque Journal
42. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_NM_91212.pdf Public Policy Polling
43. https://web.archive.org/web/20121004035556/http://weaskamerica.com/2012/10/01/western-front/ We Ask America
44. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/NewMexicoResultsOctober2012.pdf Public Policy Polling
45. http://www.abqjournal.com/main/2012/10/15/news/heinrich-leading-in-u-s-senate-race.html Albuquerque Poll Journal
46. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/NewMexicoResults.pdf Public Policy Polling
47. https://web.archive.org/web/20121103203809/http://www.abqjournal.com/main/2012/10/29/news/heinrich-stays-ahead-in-senate-race.html Albuquerque Poll Journal
48. Web site: Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts. Daily Kos. 11 August 2020.