2020 United States Senate election in New Hampshire explained

See also: 2020 United States Senate elections.

Election Name:	2020 United States Senate election in New Hampshire
Country:	New Hampshire
Type:	presidential
Ongoing:	no
Previous Election:	2014 United States Senate election in New Hampshire
Previous Year:	2014
Next Election:	2026 United States Senate election in New Hampshire
Next Year:	2026
Election Date:	November 3, 2020
Image1:	File:Shaheen Senate Portrait (cropped).jpg
Nominee1:	Jeanne Shaheen
Party1:	Democratic Party (United States)
Popular Vote1:	450,778
Percentage1:	56.63%
Nominee2:	Bryant "Corky" Messner
Party2:	Republican Party (United States)
Popular Vote2:	326,229
Percentage2:	40.99%
U.S. Senator
Before Election:	Jeanne Shaheen
Before Party:	Democratic Party (United States)
After Election:	Jeanne Shaheen
After Party:	Democratic Party (United States)

The 2020 United States Senate election in New Hampshire was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of New Hampshire, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen won reelection to a third term after comfortably defeating Republican nominee Bryant Messner by 15.6 points and sweeping every single county in the state. This marked the first Senate election since 1972 in which the Democrat carried Belknap County.

Shaheen's final margin outperformed Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden in the concurrent presidential election by around 8 percentage points.

The primary election was held on September 8, 2020.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Jeanne Shaheen, incumbent U.S. senator^[1]

Eliminated in primary

• Tom Alciere, former Republican state representative^[2]
• Paul J. Krautmann, former dentist^[2]

Results

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Bryant Messner, corporate attorney and former U.S. Army soldier^{[3] [4]}

Eliminated in primary

• Gerard Beloin, ski instructor^[2]
• Don Bolduc, former U.S. Army Special Forces brigadier general^[5]
• Andy Martin, journalist and perennial candidate^[6]

Withdrew

• Bill O'Brien, former Speaker of the New Hampshire House of Representatives^[7]

Declined

• Kelly Ayotte, former U.S. senator and former attorney general of New Hampshire^{[8] [9]}
• Al Baldasaro, state representative^[10] (endorsed Bill O'Brien)^[11]
• Scott Brown, U.S. Ambassador to New Zealand and Samoa, former U.S. senator from Massachusetts, 2014 Republican nominee for the U.S. Senate in New Hampshire^[10]
• Eddie Edwards, former police chief of South Hampton, former chief of the New Hampshire State Division of Liquor Enforcement, and nominee for New Hampshire's 1st congressional district in 2018^[12] (accepted executive state appointment)^[13]
• Corey Lewandowski, President Donald Trump's former campaign manager^[14]
• Jay Lucas, businessman^[15]
• Chris Sununu, incumbent governor of New Hampshire (running for re-election)^[16]

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Don Bolduc	Corey Lewandowski	Corky Messner	Bill O'Brien	Other	Undecided
University of New Hampshire	August 28 – September 1, 2020	703 (LV)	±  3.7%	31%	–		52%	–	0%	17%
Saint Anselm College	August 15–17, 2020	475 (RV)	±  4.5%	29%	–		31%	–	4%		37%
The Tarrance Group	July 12–14, 2020	401 (LV)	±  5%	27%	–		39%	–	–	–
Remington Research Group	June 21–23, 2020	800 (LV)	–	8%	–		17%	–	–		73%
	April 2, 2020	O'Brien withdraws from the race
	December 31, 2019	Lewandowski announces he will not run
Emerson College	September 6–9, 2019	379 (RV)	± 5.0%	9%		29%	4%	7%	–		56%
Vote Adjustments/WMUR	September 5–6, 2019	402 (LV)	± 4.2%	9%		29%	2%	6%	–		49%
	September 4, 2019	Messner announces his candidacy
Remington Research (R)	August 12–14, 2019	200 (RV)	–	21%	21%	2%	8%	–		47%
Fabrizio (R)	August 11–12, 2019	400 (LV)	–	11%		30%	–	10%	–	–

Results

Other candidates

Libertarian Party

Nominee

• Justin O'Donnell, Libertarian nominee for New Hampshire's 2nd congressional district in 2018,^[2] qualified for general election ballot by petition on September 2, 2020^[17]

Bull Moose Party

Did not qualify

• Thomas Sharpe V, firefighter and U.S. Navy veteran^{[2] [17]}

General election

Debate

2022 New Hampshire United States Senate election debate

	Date	Host	Moderator	Link	Democratic	Republican	Libertarian
Key: Participant  Absent  Not invited  Invited Withdrawn
					Jeanne Shaheen	Bryant Messner	Justin O'Donnell
1	Oct. 15, 2022	New Hampshire Public Radio	Laura Knoy Annie Ropeik	YouTube
2	Oct. 25, 2022	WMUR		YouTube

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
align=left	The Cook Political Report^[18]		October 29, 2020
align=left	Inside Elections^[19]		October 28, 2020
align=left	Sabato's Crystal Ball^[20]		November 2, 2020
Daily Kos^[21]		October 30, 2020
Politico^[22]		November 2, 2020
RCP^[23]		October 23, 2020
DDHQ^[24]		November 3, 2020
538^[25]		November 2, 2020
Economist^[26]		November 2, 2020

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Jeanne Shaheen (D)	Corky Messner (R)	Other / Undecided
American Research Group	October 26–28, 2020	600 (LV)	± 4%		57%	40%	3%
University of New Hampshire	October 24–28, 2020	864 (LV)	± 3.3%		54%	43%	2%
Saint Anselm College	October 23–26, 2020	1,018 (LV)	± 3.1%		54%	39%	8%
YouGov/UMass Lowell	October 16–26, 2020	757 (LV)	± 4.5%		57%	38%	5%
University of New Hampshire	October 9–12, 2020	899 (LV)	± 3.3%		55%	40%	6%
Suffolk University	October 8–12, 2020	500 (LV)	± 4.4%		51%	36%	13%
Saint Anselm College	October 1–4, 2020	1,147 (LV)	± 2.9%		53%	38%	8%
Emerson College	September 30 – October 1, 2020	700 (LV)	± 3.6%		55%	40%	5%
American Research Group	September 25–28, 2020	600 (LV)	± 4%		56%	40%	4%
University of New Hampshire	September 24–28, 2020	972 (LV)	± 3.1%		54%	41%	5%
YouGov/UMass Lowell	September 17–25, 2020	657 (LV)	±  4.6%		56%	37%	7%
University of New Hampshire	August 28 – September 1, 2020	1,889 (LV)	±  2.3%		54%	36%	9%
University of New Hampshire	July 16–28, 2020	1,893 (LV)	± 2.2%		54%	35%	12%
University of New Hampshire	June 18–22, 2020	932 (LV)	± 2.8%		50%	37%	13%
University of New Hampshire	May 14–18, 2020	788 (LV)	± 3.2%		52%	34%	14%
University of New Hampshire	February 19–25, 2020	576 (RV)	± 4.1%		52%	28%	21%

with Don Bolduc

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Jeanne Shaheen (D)	Don Bolduc (R)	Other / Undecided
University of New Hampshire	August 28 – September 1, 2020	1,889 (LV)	±  2.3%		53%	37%	10%
University of New Hampshire	July 16–28, 2020	1,893 (LV)	± 2.2%		54%	35%	10%
University of New Hampshire	June 18–22, 2020	932 (LV)	± 2.8%		51%	39%	11%
University of New Hampshire	May 14–18, 2020	788 (LV)	± 3.2%		50%	39%	11%
University of New Hampshire	February 19–25, 2020	576 (RV)	± 4.1%		49%	30%	22%
Remington Research (R)	August 12–14, 2019	427 (RV)	± 4.7%		47%	42%	11%
Gravis Marketing	August 2–6, 2019	505 (RV)	± 4.4%		51%	38%	11%

with Corey Lewandowski

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Jeanne Shaheen (D)	Corey Lewandowski (R)	Other / Undecided
American Research Group	December 12–16, 2019	539 (RV)	± 4.2%		58%	35%	7%
Emerson College	November 22–26, 2019	1,184 (RV)	± 2.8%		52%	40%	8%
American Research Group	September 20–24, 2019	560 (RV)	± 4.1%		56%	34%	10%
Emerson College	September 6–9, 2019	1,041 (RV)	± 3.0%		49%	39%	12%
Remington Research (R)	August 12–14, 2019	427 (RV)	± 4.7%		50%	37%	–

with Bill O'Brien

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Jeanne Shaheen (D)	Bill O'Brien (R)	Other	Undecided
University of New Hampshire	February 19–25, 2020	576 (RV)	± 4.1%		51%	30%	5%	14%
Gravis Marketing	August 2–6, 2019	505 (RV)	± 4.4%		52%	39%	–	9%

with Chris Sununu

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Jeanne Shaheen (D)	Chris Sununu (R)	Undecided
Emerson College	February 21–22, 2019	910 (RV)	± 3.2%	44%	44%	12%
YouGov/UMass Amherst	February 7–15, 2019	600 (RV)	± 4.8%		45%	42%	10%

with Kelly Ayotte

with Generic Democrat and Generic Republican

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Generic Democrat	Generic Republican	Other	Undecided
Saint Anselm College	August 15–17, 2020	1,042 (RV)	± 3%		49%	44%	2%	4%
Saint Anselm College	Jun 13–16, 2020	1,072 (RV)	± 3%		46%	43%	2%	8%
Saint Anselm College	Apr 23–27, 2020	820 (RV)	± 3.4%		49%	42%	3%	6%

Results

County	Jeanne Shaheen Democratic		Bryant Messner Republican		Justin O'Donnell Libertarian		Write-in		Margin		Total votes
	data-sort-type="number"		data-sort-type="number"	%	data-sort-type="number"		data-sort-type="number"	%	data-sort-type="number"			data-sort-type="number"	%	data-sort-type="number"		data-sort-type="number"	%	data-sort-type="number"		data-sort-type="number"	%
	Belknap		18,704		49.15		18,536		48.71		765		2.01		46		0.12		168		0.44		38,051
	Carroll		17,670		53.61		14,694		44.58		578		1.75		16		0.05		2,976		9.03		32,958
	Cheshire		26,750		63.03		15,690		36.97		1,122		2.64		33		0.08		11,060		26.06		42,440
	Coös		8,752		53.57		7,222		44.21		362		2.22		0		0.00		1,530		9.37		16,336
	Grafton		34,043		63.77		18,092		33.89		1,212		2.27		39		0.07		15,951		29.88		53,386
	Hillsborough		129,100		56.50		93,607		40.97		5,630		2.46		137		0.06		35,493		15.53		228,474
	Merrimack		52,343		58.74		34,687		38.92		2,031		2.28		52		0.06		17,656		19.81		89,113
	Rockingham		105,818		53.72		86,937		44.14		4,112		2.09		94		0.05		18,881		9.59		196,961
	Strafford		44,415		60.94		26,465		36.31		1,947		2.67		61		0.08		17,950		24.63		72,888
	Sullivan		13,183		54.58		10,299		42.64		662		2.75		8		0.03		2,884		11.94		24,152
Totals	450,778	56.64	326,229	40.99	18,421	2.31	486	0.06	124,549	15.65	795,914

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

• Belknap (largest municipality: Laconia)
• Hillsborough (largest municipality: Manchester)
• Rockingham (largest municipality: Derry)

Results by congressional district

Shaheen won both congressional districts.^[27]

District	Shaheen	Messner	Representative
		56%	42%		Chris Pappas
		57%	40%		Annie Kuster

See also

• 2020 New Hampshire elections

Notes

Partisan clients

Voter samples

External links

• • • Web site: League of Women Voters of New Hampshire . (State affiliate of the U.S. League of Women Voters)

Official campaign websites

• Corky Messner (R) for Senate
• Justin O'Donnell (L) for Senate
• Jeanne Shaheen (D) for Senate

Notes and References

1. News: Sexton. Adam. Shaheen running for re-election in 2020. WMUR. January 27, 2019. January 27, 2019.
2. Web site: Schinella . Tony . NH Senate Candidate Accused Of Domestic Incident In Colorado: Doc . Patch . August 28, 2020 . August 25, 2020.
3. News: DiStaso. John. NH Primary Source: Republican lawyer Bryant 'Corky' Messner weighs run for US Senate. WMUR. April 25, 2019. April 25, 2019.
4. News: Steinhauser. Paul. Messner becomes the third Republican to launch a 2020 Senate campaign. Concord Monitor. September 4, 2019. September 5, 2019.
5. News: DiStaso. John. Bolduc launches bid for US Senate in video, calling for 'change, big-time'. WMUR. June 24, 2019. June 24, 2019.
6. Web site: May 15, 2020 . Andy Martin 2020 for US Senate Uses Jeanne Shaheen to Attack the NHGOP. Steve . McDonald . May 3, 2019 .
7. Web site: DiStaso . John . Bill O'Brien ends US Senate campaign, endorses fellow Republican Corky Messner . WMUR . en . April 2, 2020.
8. News: Ayotte doesn't rule out serving Trump administration New Hampshire. March 15, 2018. UnionLeader.com. November 11, 2016. en. March 15, 2018. https://web.archive.org/web/20180315133732/http://www.unionleader.com/Ayotte-doesnt-rule-out-serving-Trump-administration. dead.
9. Web site: NH Primary Source: Looking to 2020, key Republicans wishing for, hoping for, encouraging Ayotte. DiStaso. John. WMUR Manchester. October 11, 2018.
10. Web site: As Shaheen prepares for another run, which Republican would challenge her?. Steinhauser. Paul. Concord Monitor. December 25, 2018. December 27, 2018.
11. O'Brien. Bill. OBrienForNH. 1153784372920586240. Republican Floor Leader in the New Hampshire House, Trump 2016 Veterans Coalition campaign leader, and a man who served our nation in the US Marine Corps for more than two decades, Representative Al Baldasaro to introduce and endorse Bill O'Brien #nhpolitics. July 24, 2019. July 31, 2019.
12. News: DiStaso. John. NH Primary Source: PAC to recruit Eddie Edwards to run for a 'federal office' in 2020 to launch soon. WMUR. March 14, 2019. March 14, 2019.
13. Web site: Sununu seeks vote to install ex-liquor law chief as state licensing executive. Kevin Landrigan New Hampshire Union. Leader. UnionLeader.com. April 7, 2020 .
14. Web site: Kelly . Caroline . Corey Lewandowski drops potential Senate run in New Hampshire . CNN . December 31, 2019 . December 31, 2019.
15. News: DiStaso. John. NH Primary Source: Lucas flattered by recruitment efforts, but focused on Newport revitalization. WMUR. November 29, 2018. December 4, 2018.
16. DiStaso. John. jdistaso. 1128433930376445952. BREAKING: .@GovChrisSununu announces he's seeking a third term as #nhgov – #nhpolitics #WMUR. May 14, 2019. May 14, 2019.
17. Web site: NH-SOS - 2020 Election Information. sos.nh.gov.
18. Web site: 2020 Senate Race Ratings for October 29, 2020 . The Cook Political Report . March 11, 2021.
19. Web site: 2020 Senate Ratings . Senate Ratings . The Rothenberg Political Report . March 11, 2021.
20. Web site: 2020 Senate race ratings . Sabato's Crystal Ball . March 12, 2021.
21. Web site: 2020 Senate Race Ratings . Daily Kos Elections. March 13, 2021.
22. Web site: 2020 Election Forecast. November 19, 2019 . Politico.
23. Web site: Battle for the Senate 2020. October 23, 2020 . RCP.
24. Web site: September 2, 2020 . 2020 Senate Elections Model. September 2, 2020 . Decision Desk HQ.
25. Web site: Silver . Nate . Forecasting the race for the Senate . . September 18, 2020 . September 18, 2020.
26. Web site: November 2, 2020 . Forecasting the US elections . March 13, 2021 . The Economist.
27. Web site: Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts. Daily Kos. August 11, 2020.