2020 United States Senate election in New Hampshire explained

See also: 2020 United States Senate elections.

Election Name:2020 United States Senate election in New Hampshire
Country:New Hampshire
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2014 United States Senate election in New Hampshire
Previous Year:2014
Next Election:2026 United States Senate election in New Hampshire
Next Year:2026
Election Date:November 3, 2020
Image1:File:Shaheen Senate Portrait (cropped).jpg
Nominee1:Jeanne Shaheen
Party1:Democratic Party (United States)
Popular Vote1:450,778
Percentage1:56.63%
Nominee2:Bryant "Corky" Messner
Party2:Republican Party (United States)
Popular Vote2:326,229
Percentage2:40.99%
U.S. Senator
Before Election:Jeanne Shaheen
Before Party:Democratic Party (United States)
After Election:Jeanne Shaheen
After Party:Democratic Party (United States)

The 2020 United States Senate election in New Hampshire was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of New Hampshire, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen won reelection to a third term after comfortably defeating Republican nominee Bryant Messner by 15.6 points and sweeping every single county in the state. This marked the first Senate election since 1972 in which the Democrat carried Belknap County.

Shaheen's final margin outperformed Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden in the concurrent presidential election by around 8 percentage points.

The primary election was held on September 8, 2020.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Results

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Withdrew

Declined

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Don BolducCorey LewandowskiCorky MessnerBill O'BrienOtherUndecided
University of New HampshireAugust 28 – September 1, 2020703 (LV)±  3.7%31%52%0%17%
Saint Anselm CollegeAugust 15–17, 2020475 (RV)±  4.5%29%31%4%37%
The Tarrance GroupJuly 12–14, 2020401 (LV)±  5%27%39%
Remington Research GroupJune 21–23, 2020800 (LV)8%17%73%
April 2, 2020O'Brien withdraws from the race
December 31, 2019Lewandowski announces he will not run
Emerson CollegeSeptember 6–9, 2019379 (RV)± 5.0%9%29%4%7%56%
Vote Adjustments/WMURSeptember 5–6, 2019402 (LV)± 4.2%9%29%2%6%49%
September 4, 2019Messner announces his candidacy
Remington Research (R)August 12–14, 2019200 (RV)21%21%2%8%47%
Fabrizio (R)August 11–12, 2019400 (LV)11%30%10%

Results

Other candidates

Libertarian Party

Nominee

Bull Moose Party

Did not qualify

General election

Debate

2022 New Hampshire United States Senate election debate
DateHostModeratorLinkDemocraticRepublicanLibertarian
Key:
Participant  Absent  Not invited  Invited Withdrawn
Jeanne ShaheenBryant MessnerJustin O'Donnell
1Oct. 15, 2022New Hampshire Public RadioLaura Knoy
Annie Ropeik
YouTube
2Oct. 25, 2022WMURYouTube

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
align=left The Cook Political Report[18] October 29, 2020
align=left Inside Elections[19] October 28, 2020
align=left Sabato's Crystal Ball[20] November 2, 2020
Daily Kos[21] October 30, 2020
Politico[22] November 2, 2020
RCP[23] October 23, 2020
DDHQ[24] November 3, 2020
538[25] November 2, 2020
Economist[26] November 2, 2020

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Jeanne
Shaheen (D)
Corky
Messner (R)
Other /
Undecided
American Research GroupOctober 26–28, 2020600 (LV)± 4%57%40%3%
University of New HampshireOctober 24–28, 2020864 (LV)± 3.3%54%43%2%
Saint Anselm CollegeOctober 23–26, 20201,018 (LV)± 3.1%54%39%8%
YouGov/UMass LowellOctober 16–26, 2020757 (LV)± 4.5%57%38%5%
University of New HampshireOctober 9–12, 2020899 (LV)± 3.3%55%40%6%
Suffolk UniversityOctober 8–12, 2020500 (LV)± 4.4%51%36%13%
Saint Anselm CollegeOctober 1–4, 20201,147 (LV)± 2.9%53%38%8%
Emerson CollegeSeptember 30 – October 1, 2020700 (LV)± 3.6%55%40%5%
American Research GroupSeptember 25–28, 2020600 (LV)± 4%56%40%4%
University of New HampshireSeptember 24–28, 2020972 (LV)± 3.1%54%41%5%
YouGov/UMass LowellSeptember 17–25, 2020657 (LV)±  4.6%56%37%7%
University of New HampshireAugust 28 – September 1, 20201,889 (LV)±  2.3%54%36%9%
University of New HampshireJuly 16–28, 20201,893 (LV)± 2.2%54%35%12%
University of New HampshireJune 18–22, 2020932 (LV)± 2.8%50%37%13%
University of New HampshireMay 14–18, 2020788 (LV)± 3.2%52%34%14%
University of New HampshireFebruary 19–25, 2020576 (RV)± 4.1%52%28%21%
with Don Bolduc
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Jeanne
Shaheen (D)
Don
Bolduc (R)
Other /
Undecided
University of New HampshireAugust 28 – September 1, 20201,889 (LV)±  2.3%53%37%10%
University of New HampshireJuly 16–28, 20201,893 (LV)± 2.2%54%35%10%
University of New HampshireJune 18–22, 2020932 (LV)± 2.8%51%39%11%
University of New HampshireMay 14–18, 2020788 (LV)± 3.2%50%39%11%
University of New HampshireFebruary 19–25, 2020576 (RV)± 4.1%49%30%22%
Remington Research (R)August 12–14, 2019427 (RV)± 4.7%47%42%11%
Gravis MarketingAugust 2–6, 2019505 (RV)± 4.4%51%38%11%
with Corey Lewandowski
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Jeanne
Shaheen (D)
Corey
Lewandowski (R)
Other /
Undecided
American Research GroupDecember 12–16, 2019539 (RV)± 4.2%58%35%7%
Emerson CollegeNovember 22–26, 20191,184 (RV)± 2.8%52%40%8%
American Research GroupSeptember 20–24, 2019560 (RV)± 4.1%56%34%10%
Emerson CollegeSeptember 6–9, 20191,041 (RV)± 3.0%49%39%12%
Remington Research (R)August 12–14, 2019427 (RV)± 4.7%50%37%
with Bill O'Brien
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Jeanne
Shaheen (D)
Bill
O'Brien (R)
OtherUndecided
University of New HampshireFebruary 19–25, 2020576 (RV)± 4.1%51%30%5%14%
Gravis MarketingAugust 2–6, 2019505 (RV)± 4.4%52%39%9%
with Chris Sununu
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Jeanne
Shaheen (D)
Chris
Sununu (R)
Undecided
Emerson College February 21–22, 2019910 (RV)± 3.2%44%44%12%
YouGov/UMass AmherstFebruary 7–15, 2019600 (RV)± 4.8%45%42%10%
with Kelly Ayotte
with Generic Democrat and Generic Republican
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Generic
Democrat
Generic
Republican
OtherUndecided
Saint Anselm CollegeAugust 15–17, 20201,042 (RV)± 3%49%44%2%4%
Saint Anselm CollegeJun 13–16, 20201,072 (RV)± 3%46%43%2%8%
Saint Anselm CollegeApr 23–27, 2020820 (RV)± 3.4%49%42%3%6%

Results

CountyJeanne Shaheen
Democratic
Bryant Messner
Republican
Justin O'Donnell
Libertarian
Write-inMarginTotal
votes
data-sort-type="number" data-sort-type="number" %data-sort-type="number" data-sort-type="number" %data-sort-type="number" data-sort-type="number" %data-sort-type="number" data-sort-type="number" %data-sort-type="number" data-sort-type="number" %
Belknap18,70449.1518,53648.717652.01460.121680.4438,051
Carroll17,67053.6114,69444.585781.75160.052,9769.0332,958
Cheshire26,75063.0315,69036.971,1222.64330.0811,06026.0642,440
Coös8,75253.577,22244.213622.2200.001,5309.3716,336
Grafton34,04363.7718,09233.891,2122.27390.0715,95129.8853,386
Hillsborough129,10056.5093,60740.975,6302.461370.0635,49315.53228,474
Merrimack52,34358.7434,68738.922,0312.28520.0617,65619.8189,113
Rockingham105,81853.7286,93744.144,1122.09940.0518,8819.59196,961
Strafford44,41560.9426,46536.311,9472.67610.0817,95024.6372,888
Sullivan13,18354.5810,29942.646622.7580.032,88411.9424,152
Totals450,77856.64326,22940.9918,4212.314860.06124,54915.65795,914
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Results by congressional district

Shaheen won both congressional districts.[27]

DistrictShaheenMessnerRepresentative
56%42%Chris Pappas
57%40%Annie Kuster

See also

Notes

Partisan clients
  • Voter samples
  • External links

    Official campaign websites

    Notes and References

    1. News: Sexton. Adam. Shaheen running for re-election in 2020. WMUR. January 27, 2019. January 27, 2019.
    2. Web site: Schinella . Tony . NH Senate Candidate Accused Of Domestic Incident In Colorado: Doc . Patch . August 28, 2020 . August 25, 2020.
    3. News: DiStaso. John. NH Primary Source: Republican lawyer Bryant 'Corky' Messner weighs run for US Senate. WMUR. April 25, 2019. April 25, 2019.
    4. News: Steinhauser. Paul. Messner becomes the third Republican to launch a 2020 Senate campaign. Concord Monitor. September 4, 2019. September 5, 2019.
    5. News: DiStaso. John. Bolduc launches bid for US Senate in video, calling for 'change, big-time'. WMUR. June 24, 2019. June 24, 2019.
    6. Web site: May 15, 2020 . Andy Martin 2020 for US Senate Uses Jeanne Shaheen to Attack the NHGOP. Steve . McDonald . May 3, 2019 .
    7. Web site: DiStaso . John . Bill O'Brien ends US Senate campaign, endorses fellow Republican Corky Messner . WMUR . en . April 2, 2020.
    8. News: Ayotte doesn't rule out serving Trump administration New Hampshire. March 15, 2018. UnionLeader.com. November 11, 2016. en. March 15, 2018. https://web.archive.org/web/20180315133732/http://www.unionleader.com/Ayotte-doesnt-rule-out-serving-Trump-administration. dead.
    9. Web site: NH Primary Source: Looking to 2020, key Republicans wishing for, hoping for, encouraging Ayotte. DiStaso. John. WMUR Manchester. October 11, 2018.
    10. Web site: As Shaheen prepares for another run, which Republican would challenge her?. Steinhauser. Paul. Concord Monitor. December 25, 2018. December 27, 2018.
    11. O'Brien. Bill. OBrienForNH. 1153784372920586240. Republican Floor Leader in the New Hampshire House, Trump 2016 Veterans Coalition campaign leader, and a man who served our nation in the US Marine Corps for more than two decades, Representative Al Baldasaro to introduce and endorse Bill O'Brien #nhpolitics. July 24, 2019. July 31, 2019.
    12. News: DiStaso. John. NH Primary Source: PAC to recruit Eddie Edwards to run for a 'federal office' in 2020 to launch soon. WMUR. March 14, 2019. March 14, 2019.
    13. Web site: Sununu seeks vote to install ex-liquor law chief as state licensing executive. Kevin Landrigan New Hampshire Union. Leader. UnionLeader.com. April 7, 2020 .
    14. Web site: Kelly . Caroline . Corey Lewandowski drops potential Senate run in New Hampshire . CNN . December 31, 2019 . December 31, 2019.
    15. News: DiStaso. John. NH Primary Source: Lucas flattered by recruitment efforts, but focused on Newport revitalization. WMUR. November 29, 2018. December 4, 2018.
    16. DiStaso. John. jdistaso. 1128433930376445952. BREAKING: .@GovChrisSununu announces he's seeking a third term as #nhgov – #nhpolitics #WMUR. May 14, 2019. May 14, 2019.
    17. Web site: NH-SOS - 2020 Election Information. sos.nh.gov.
    18. Web site: 2020 Senate Race Ratings for October 29, 2020 . The Cook Political Report . March 11, 2021.
    19. Web site: 2020 Senate Ratings . Senate Ratings . The Rothenberg Political Report . March 11, 2021.
    20. Web site: 2020 Senate race ratings . Sabato's Crystal Ball . March 12, 2021.
    21. Web site: 2020 Senate Race Ratings . Daily Kos Elections. March 13, 2021.
    22. Web site: 2020 Election Forecast. November 19, 2019 . Politico.
    23. Web site: Battle for the Senate 2020. October 23, 2020 . RCP.
    24. Web site: September 2, 2020 . 2020 Senate Elections Model. September 2, 2020 . Decision Desk HQ.
    25. Web site: Silver . Nate . Forecasting the race for the Senate . . September 18, 2020 . September 18, 2020.
    26. Web site: November 2, 2020 . Forecasting the US elections . March 13, 2021 . The Economist.
    27. Web site: Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts. Daily Kos. August 11, 2020.