| Election Name: | 2010 United States Senate election in New Hampshire |
| Country: | New Hampshire |
| Type: | presidential |
| Ongoing: | no |
| Previous Election: | 2004 United States Senate election in New Hampshire |
| Previous Year: | 2004 |
| Next Election: | 2016 United States Senate election in New Hampshire |
| Next Year: | 2016 |
| Election Date: | November 2, 2010 |
| Image1: | Kelly Ayotte portrait (cropped).jpg |
| Nominee1: | Kelly Ayotte |
| Party1: | Republican Party (United States) |
| Popular Vote1: | 273,218 |
| Percentage1: | 60.09% |
| Nominee2: | Paul Hodes |
| Party2: | Democratic Party (United States) |
| Popular Vote2: | 167,545 |
| Percentage2: | 36.85% |
| U.S. Senator | |
| Before Election: | Judd Gregg |
| Before Party: | Republican Party (United States) |
| After Election: | Kelly Ayotte |
| After Party: | Republican Party (United States) |
The 2010 United States Senate election in New Hampshire was held on November 2, 2010, alongside other midterm elections to the United States Senate in other states as well as to the United States House of Representatives. Primaries were held on September 14. Incumbent Senator Judd Gregg (R) retired instead of seeking a fourth term, and was succeeded by Kelly Ayotte, who won the open seat by over 23 points. This is the last time that Republicans won a U.S. Senate election in New Hampshire. This was also the first open seat election in the state since 1992. With Democrat Jeanne Shaheen serving in the state's other Senate seat, New Hampshire became the first state in the union to be represented in the Senate simultaneously by two women of opposite parties.
Gregg was reelected with 66% of the vote in 2004, and indicated that he would seek a fourth term in 2010.[1] New Hampshire trended Democratic in the 2006 and 2008 elections, with Republican incumbents losing both of the state's House seats and its other Senate seat to Democrats, but polling conducted in late December 2008 showed Gregg defeating both of the state's U.S. Representatives in a hypothetical match-up.
In February 2009, President Barack Obama offered, and Gregg accepted, nomination to the position of United States Secretary of Commerce.[2] New Hampshire's Democratic Governor John Lynch announced he would appoint Bonnie Newman, former Assistant Secretary of Commerce for economic development in the Reagan administration, to serve as Senator for New Hampshire until the election in 2010.[2] Newman announced that she would not run for election in 2010, nor would she endorse any candidate in the race.[3]
On February 12, 2009, however, Gregg withdrew his nomination for Commerce Secretary. He cited "irresolvable conflicts" over policy related to the Commerce Department as the main reasons for his withdrawal, but also indicated support for President Obama.[4] Gregg continued to serve as a senator from New Hampshire, as he did not resign from the Senate during the nomination process. At the time of the withdrawal, Gregg indicated that he would not run for reelection in 2010. However, at a subsequent press conference, Gregg clarified that he would "probably not" run for reelection, leading to speculation that was not eliminating the possibility completely.[5] [6]
On April 1, 2009, Gregg reaffirmed that he would not run.[7]
Meanwhile, Democratic U.S. Representative Paul Hodes began his Senate campaign. He was the only major announced candidate until Attorney General Kelly Ayotte announced her bid for the Republican nomination in early July 2009. On November 9, 2009, Republican Ovide Lamontagne joined the race as well.
| Poll source | Dates administered | Kelly Ayotte | Jim Bender | Bill Binnie | Ovide Lamontagne | Undecided/other | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarrance Group[11] | January 13–14, 2010 | 43% | 3% | 5% | 11% | 37% | ||
| Research 2000[12] | February 1–3, 2010 | 36% | –– | 4% | 27% | 33% | ||
| Public Policy Polling[13] | April 21, 2010 | 43% | 11% | 19% | 5% | 21% | ||
| Magellan Strategies[14] | May 28, 2010 | 38% | 4% | 29% | 9% | 15% | ||
| Public Policy Polling[15] | July 23–25, 2010 | 47% | 6% | 14% | 8% | 20% | ||
| Magellan Strategies[16] | September 1, 2010 | 34% | 13% | 17% | 21% | 15% | ||
| Public Policy Polling[17] | September 11–12, 2010 | 37% | 12% | 13% | 30% | 5% | ||
| Magellan Strategies[18] | September 12, 2010 | 35% | 10% | 14% | 31% | 10% |
Hodes called himself a fiscal conservative, which was mocked by Ayotte in a TV ad. Hodes was criticized for supporting President Obama's Economic Recovery package, a carbon energy tax, and Affordable Care Act.[19] [20] [21] Hodes criticized Ayotte for numerous controversies. One ad questioned Ayotte's honesty in dealing with the Lakes Region Ponzi scheme which defrauded investors of almost $80 million.[22]
Ayotte was endorsed by the Concord Monitor and the Nashua Telegraph.[23]
| Source | Ranking | As of | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report[26] | October 26, 2010 | ||
| Rothenberg[27] | October 22, 2010 | ||
| RealClearPolitics[28] | October 26, 2010 | ||
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[29] | October 21, 2010 | ||
| CQ Politics[30] | October 26, 2010 |
| Poll source | Kelly Ayotte (R) | Paul Hodes (D) | Other | Undecided | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Granite State Poll[31] | June 24 – July 1, 2009 | 558 | ± 4.1% | 39% | 35% | 2% | 24% | ||
| Research 2000[32] | July 13 – 15, 2009 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 39% | 38% | 2% | 21% | ||
| Rasmussen Reports[33] | September 14, 2009 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 46% | 38% | 5% | 12% | ||
| American Research Group[34] | September 30, 2009 | 566 | ± 4.1% | 41% | 34% | –– | 25% | ||
| Granite State Poll[35] | October 2, 2009 | 503 | ± 4.4% | 40% | 33% | 2% | 25% | ||
| American Research Group[36] | December 29, 2009 | 566 | ± 4.1% | 43% | 36% | –– | 21% | ||
| Rasmussen Reports[37] | January 12, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 49% | 40% | 3% | 8% | ||
| Granite State Poll[38] | January 27 – February 3, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 41% | 33% | 1% | 25% | ||
| Research 2000 | February 1–3, 2010 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 46% | 39% | –– | 11% | ||
| Rasmussen Reports[39] | February 10, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 46% | 39% | 3% | 13% | ||
| Rasmussen Reports[40] | March 8, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 47% | 37% | 4% | 12% | ||
| Rasmussen Reports[41] | April 7, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 50% | 35% | 4% | 11% | ||
| Public Policy Polling[42] | April 17–18, 2010 | 1,474 | ± 2.6% | 47% | 40% | –– | 13% | ||
| Granite State Poll[43] | April 12–21, 2010 | 512 | ± 4.4% | 47% | 32% | –– | 21% | ||
| Rasmussen Reports[44] | May 11, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 50% | 38% | 3% | 9% | ||
| Rasmussen Reports[45] | July 12, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 49% | 37% | 7% | 7% | ||
| Public Policy Polling[46] | July 23–25, 2010 | 900 | ± 3.26% | 45% | 42% | –– | 13% | ||
| WMUR Granite State Poll[47] | July 19–27, 2010 | 453 | ± 4.4% | 45% | 37% | 1% | 17% | ||
| Rasmussen Reports[48] | August 5, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 51% | 38% | 4% | 6% | ||
| Public Policy Polling[49] | September 11–12, 2010 | 1,959 | ± 2.2% | 47% | 43% | –– | 9% | ||
| Rasmussen Reports | September 15, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 51% | 44% | 1% | 4% | ||
| American Research Group | September 22–26, 2010 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 46% | 32% | 2% | 20% | ||
| American Research Group | October 3–5, 2010 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 47% | 42% | 4% | 7% | ||
| Rasmussen Reports | October 10, 2010 | 750 | ± 4.0% | 51% | 44% | 3% | 2% | ||
| WMUR/UNH[50] | October 7–12, 2010 | 709 | ± 3.7% | 50% | 35% | 1% | 12% | ||
| Rasmussen Reports[51] | October 27, 2010 | 750 | ± 4.0% | 56% | 41% | 2% | 1% | ||
| Public Policy Polling[52] | October 27–29, 2010 | 1,308 | ± 2.7% | 56% | 41% | –– | 3% | ||
| WMUR/UNH[53] | October 27–30, 2010 | 885 | ± 3.3% | 54% | 36% | 2% | 8% | ||
| WMUR/UNH | October 31, 2010 | 885 | ± 3.3% | 55% | 32% | 2% | 2% | ||
| The Concord[54] | October 31, 2010 | 885 | ± 3.3% | 56% | 32% | 2% | 4% |
| Poll Source | Dates Administered | Error | Paul Hodes (D) | Jim Bender (R) | Other | Undecided | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WMUR Granite State Poll | July 19–27, 2010 | 453 | ± 4.4% | 39% | 36% | -- | 25% | ||
| Public Policy Polling | July 23–25, 2010 | 900 | ± 3.26% | 43% | 42% | -- | 16% | ||
| Rasmussen Reports | July 12, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 39% | 43% | 10% | 8% | ||
| Rasmussen Reports | May 11, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 41% | 39% | 8% | 13% | ||
| Granite State Poll | April 12–21, 2010 | 512 | ± 4.4% | 37% | 34% | -- | 29% | ||
| Public Policy Polling | April 17–18, 2010 | 1474 | ± 2.6% | 43% | 39% | -- | 18% | ||
| Granite State Poll | January 27 – February 3, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 36% | 27% | 2% | 35% |
| Poll Source | Dates Administered | Error | Paul Hodes (D) | Bill Binnie (R) | Other | Undecided | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmussen Reports | August 5, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 40% | 46% | 8% | 7% | ||
| WMUR Granite State Poll | July 19–27, 2010 | 453 | ± 4.4% | 38% | 41% | -- | 21% | ||
| Public Policy Polling | July 23–25, 2010 | 900 | ± 3.26% | 41% | 46% | -- | 13% | ||
| Rasmussen Reports | July 12, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 38% | 49% | 7% | 8% | ||
| Rasmussen Reports[55] | May 11, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 37% | 49% | 6% | 8% | ||
| Granite State Poll | April 12–21, 2010 | 512 | ± 4.4% | 36% | 38% | -- | 26% | ||
| Public Policy Polling | April 17–18, 2010 | 1474 | ± 2.6% | 42% | 45% | -- | 13% | ||
| Rasmussen Reports | April 7, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 37% | 49% | 4% | 10% | ||
| Rasmussen Reports | March 8, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 36% | 46% | 4% | 14% | ||
| Rasmussen Reports[56] | February 10, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 41% | 42% | 3% | 13% | ||
| Research 2000 | February 1–3, 2010 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 45% | 35% | -- | 15% | ||
| Granite State Poll | January 27 – February 3, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 34% | 30% | 2% | 33% | ||
| Rasmussen Reports | January 12, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 43% | 37% | 5% | 15% |
| Poll Source | Dates Administered | Error | Paul Hodes (D) | Ovide Lamontagne (R) | Other | Undecided | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WMUR Granite State Poll | July 19–27, 2010 | 453 | ± 4.4% | 42% | 36% | 1% | 21% | ||
| Public Policy Polling | July 23–25, 2010 | 900 | ± 3.26% | 43% | 38% | -- | 18% | ||
| Rasmussen Reports | July 12, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 40% | 43% | 9% | 9% | ||
| Rasmussen Reports | May 11, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 43% | 38% | 8% | 11% | ||
| Granite State Poll | April 12–21, 2010 | 512 | ± 4.4% | 36% | 37% | -- | 26% | ||
| Public Policy Polling | April 17–18, 2010 | 1474 | ± 2.6% | 44% | 37% | -- | 19% | ||
| Rasmussen Reports | April 7, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 39% | 44% | 7% | 11% | ||
| Rasmussen Reports | March 8, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 42% | 38% | 5% | 15% | ||
| Rasmussen Reports | February 10, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 44% | 38% | 4% | 13% | ||
| Research 2000 | February 1–3, 2010 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 46% | 36% | -- | 13% | ||
| Granite State Poll | January 27 – February 3, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 38% | 29% | 2% | 30% | ||
| Rasmussen Reports[57] | January 12, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 45% | 38% | 6% | 11% | ||
| American Research Group | December 29, 2009 | 566 | ± 4.1% | 31% | 37% | -- | 32% |
| Candidate (party) | Receipts | Disbursements | Cash on hand | Debt | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelly Ayotte (R) | $4,403,599 | $3,397,934 | $1,005,664 | $26,944 | |
| Paul Hodes (D) | $4,596,642 | $4,346,539 | $248,003 | $0 | |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[58] | |||||
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