2018 United States Senate election in Montana explained

Election Name:2018 United States Senate election in Montana
Country:Montana
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2012 United States Senate election in Montana
Previous Year:2012
Next Election:2024 United States Senate election in Montana
Next Year:2024
Election Date:November 6, 2018
Turnout:71.53% (of registered voters)[1]
Image1:file:JonTester (cropped 2).jpg
Nominee1:Jon Tester
Party1:Democratic Party (United States)
Popular Vote1:253,876
Percentage1:50.33%
Nominee2:Matt Rosendale
Party2:Republican Party (United States)
Popular Vote2:235,963
Percentage2:46.78%
U.S. Senator
Before Election:Jon Tester
Before Party:Democratic Party (United States)
After Election:Jon Tester
After Party:Democratic Party (United States)

The 2018 United States Senate election in Montana was held on November 6, 2018, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Montana, concurrently with other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

This was one of ten Democratic-held Senate seats up for election in a state that Donald Trump won in the 2016 presidential election. Incumbent Democratic Senator Jon Tester was reelected to a third term, defeating Republican State Auditor Matt Rosendale. Rosendale conceded on November 7, 2018.[2] This was the first Senate election in which Tester received a majority of votes cast rather than a simple plurality.

Following his loss, Rosendale went on to run for Montana's vacant congressional seat in 2020 and won, taking office in the U.S. House of Representatives in January 2021.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominated

Results

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominated

Eliminated in primary

Withdrew

Declined

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Troy
Downing
Russell
Fagg
Al
Olszewski
Matt
Rosendale
OtherUndecided
WPA Intelligence (R-Club for Growth)[20] April 15–16, 2018503± 4.4%12%17%8% align=center40%23%
WPA Intelligence (R-Rosendale)[21] February 5–7, 2018401± 4.4%12%11%5% align=center28%1%[22]

Results

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Nominated

In October 2018, Breckenridge told a reporter from the Associated Press that he opposed the use of dark money in politics. Breckenridge said that he realistically anticipated only receiving three or four percent of the vote in the general election, and that he endorsed Rosendale's efforts to stop the use of dark money in politics.[24] The Associated Press interpreted Breckenridge's comments as a statement that Breckenridge was dropping out of the race and endorsing Rosendale.[24] Breckenridge later stated that his use of the word "endorse" referred only to stopping the use of dark money in politics, and said he was still running for the Senate.[25] [26] [27]

Green Party

Kelly won the Green Party nomination, but a Montana district court judge ruled that he had insufficient signatures to get on the ballot.[28]

Candidates

Nominee (removed from ballot)

Eliminated in primary

Results

General election

Debates

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[30] October 26, 2018
Inside Elections[31] November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[32] November 5, 2018
Daily Kos[33] November 1, 2018
Fox News[34] November 1, 2018
CNN[35] November 1, 2018
RealClearPolitics[36] November 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEight[37] November 6, 2018

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of October 17, 2018
Candidate (party)Total receiptsTotal disbursementsCash on hand
Jon Tester (D)$19,499,290$17,946,600$1,612,530
Matt Rosendale (R)$5,034,075$4,515,910$524,379
Rick Breckenridge (L)align="right" -align="right" -align="right" -
Source: Federal Election Commission[38]

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Jon
Tester (D)
Matt
Rosendale (R)
Rick
OtherUndecided
The Trafalgar Group (R)[39] November 2–5, 2018953± 3.2% align=center50%49%1%0%
HarrisX[40] November 1–5, 2018500± 4.4% align=center50%42%
Change Research[41] November 2–4, 201887946% align=center49%3%
HarrisX[42] October 31 – November 4, 2018500± 4.4% align=center49%43%
HarrisX[43] October 30 – November 3, 2018500± 4.4% align=center49%43%
HarrisX[44] October 29 – November 2, 2018500± 4.4% align=center50%42%
HarrisX[45] October 28 – November 1, 2018500± 4.4% align=center49%42%
HarrisX[46] October 27–31, 2018500± 4.4% align=center49%42%
HarrisX[47] October 24–30, 2018700± 3.7% align=center48%40%
Gravis Marketing[48] October 24–26, 2018782± 3.5% align=center48%45%7%
University of Montana[49] October 10–18, 2018533± 4.3% align=center49%39%2%10%
Montana State University Billings[50] October 8–13, 2018471± 4.5% align=center47%38%3%12%
Montana State University Bozeman[51] September 15 – October 6, 20182,079± 2.2% align=center46%43%3%2%7%
Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care)[52] September 28, 2018594± 4.0% align=center49%45%6%
Gravis Marketing[53] September 19–22, 2018710± 3.7% align=center49%45%6%
Axis Research (R-NRSC)[54] September 17–19, 2018–<-- sample size of 480 imputed from from reported margin of error -->± 4.5%44%44%4%8%
AARP/Benenson Strategy Group (D)[55] September 6–16, 2018950± 3.1% align=center50%43%2%5%
CBS News/YouGov[56] September 10–14, 2018453 align=center47%45%3%5%
University of Montana[57] August 13–31, 2018466± 4.5% align=center56%32%2%9%
WPA Intelligence (R-NRSC)[58] August 20–22, 2018600± 4.0%45% align=center47%5%
Remington Research (R)[59] July 8–10, 20182,581± 2.0% align=center49%46%5%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[60] June 11 – July 2, 2018974± 5.0% align=center55%43%3%
Gravis Marketing[61] June 11–13, 2018469± 4.5% align=center52%44%4%

Results

By county

From Secretary of State of Montana[63]

CountyJon Tester
Democratic
Matt Rosendale
Republican
Rick Breckenridge
Libertarian
TotalVotes
%%%
Beaverhead1,87638.31%2,86658.53%1553.17%4,897
Big Horn3,02764.73%1,55833.32%911.95%4,676
Blaine1,96164.96%98232.53%762.52%3,019
Broadwater1,07132.84%2,08663.97%1043.19%3,261
Carbon2,68044.17%3,20952.89%1782.93%6,067
Carter12817.02%60280.05%222.93%752
Cascade17,43551.27%15,56645.77%1,0082.96%34,009
Chouteau1,27547.99%1,31249.38%702.63%2,657
Custer1,94239.77%2,76256.56%1793.67%4,883
Daniels28129.86%63167.06%293.08%941
Dawson1,23330.27%2,70066.29%1403.44%4,073
Deer Lodge2,89268.27%1,20828.52%1363.21%4,236
Fallon28121.80%95173.78%574.42%1,289
Fergus1,96433.90%3,64062.83%1893.26%5,793
Flathead19,65241.15%26,75956.03%1,3492.82%47,760
Gallatin33,25159.45%21,24837.99%1,4342.56%55,933
Garfield8111.88%57183.72%304.40%682
Glacier3,75475.14%1,15323.08%891.78%4,996
Golden Valley13028.63%30366.74%214.63%454
Granite69538.76%1,04658.34%522.90%1,793
Hill3,72958.36%2,43438.09%2273.55%6,390
Jefferson2,95443.23%3,65353.46%2263.31%6,833
Judith Basin38832.58%75263.14%514.28%1,191
Lake6,91650.22%6,49147.13%3652.65%13,772
Lewis and Clark20,50657.70%14,10639.69%9272.61%35,539
Liberty36537.21%58659.73%303.06%981
Lincoln2,90231.08%6,13765.73%2983.19%9,337
Madison1,89038.11%2,89858.44%1713.45%4,959
McCone22722.06%77375.12%292.82%1,029
Meagher31932.68%62964.45%282.87%976
Mineral78538.14%1,18157.39%924.47%2,058
Missoula41,68867.62%18,63130.22%1,3322.16%61,651
Musselshell57323.56%1,74371.67%1164.77%2,432
Park5,11452.59%4,35744.81%2532.60%9,724
Petroleum5818.59%24879.49%61.92%312
Phillips57727.71%1,42668.49%793.79%2,082
Pondera1,17643.80%1,41352.63%963.58%2,685
Powder River20320.86%74876.88%222.26%973
Powell1,02637.17%1,64159.46%933.37%2,760
Prairie17727.11%45068.91%263.98%653
Ravalli9,15639.13%13,62258.21%6232.66%23,401
Richland1,13626.22%3,01769.64%1794.13%4,332
Roosevelt2,01358.40%1,34639.05%882.55%3,447
Rosebud1,51144.88%1,76552.42%912.70%3,367
Sanders2,07133.65%3,85662.66%2273.69%6,154
Sheridan71239.29%1,01756.13%834.58%1,812
Silver Bow11,67271.55%4,24626.03%3942.42%16,312
Stillwater1,50130.86%3,20665.91%1573.23%4,864
Sweet Grass65231.08%1,37265.40%743.53%2,098
Teton1,29040.86%1,78456.51%832.63%3,157
Toole62632.90%1,20863.48%693.63%1,903
Treasure12931.16%27967.39%61.45%414
Valley1,54539.80%2,13755.05%2005.15%3,882
Wheatland31533.76%58662.81%323.43%933
Wibaux14025.83%39071.96%122.21%542
Yellowstone32,22546.53%34,68250.08%2,3513.39%69,258

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

External links

Official campaign websites

Notes and References

  1. News: 2018-02-22 . Montana Voter Turnout - Official Montana Secretary of State Website - Christi Jacobsen . 2024-02-07 . Montana Secretary of State - Christi Jacobsen . en-US.
  2. http://www.kulr8.com/story/39438000/rosendale-congratulates-sen-tester-on-his-victory Rosendale congratulates Sen. Tester on his victory
  3. Web site: Montana Senator Tester says $1.2M raised in 3rd quarter for re-election . Greatfallstribune.com . 2017-10-09 . 2018-05-02.
  4. News: Montana auditor says he'll seek US Senate seat. Great Falls Tribune. Caina Calvan. Bobby. July 31, 2017. July 31, 2017.
  5. News: Storage company CEO files to run against Tester. Great Falls Tribune. Volz. Matt. May 18, 2017. June 2, 2017.
  6. News: Former Judge Russell Fagg enters Senate race for Tester's seat. Billings Gazette. Lutey. Tom. October 14, 2017.
  7. News: Republican Olszewski says he's going to run against Tester in 2018. Independent Record. Michels. Holly K.. April 11, 2017. April 11, 2017.
  8. News: Belgrade Republican announces candidacy for GOP Senate bid. Independent Record. Michels. Holly K.. June 23, 2017. July 5, 2017.
  9. News: GOP U.S. Senate candidate Murray drops out. KXLH. 2018-08-16. https://web.archive.org/web/20180816194539/http://www.kxlh.com/story/37506693/gop-us-senate-candidate-murray-drops-out/. 2018-08-16. dead.
  10. News: Montana AG declines Senate run against Tester. Politico. Robillard. Kevin. Schneider. Elena. June 2, 2017. June 2, 2017.
  11. News: Montana attorney general Fox won't run for U.S. Senate. Great Falls Tribune. Caina Calvan. Bobby. June 5, 2017. June 6, 2017.
  12. News: Ryan Zinke Hints That Fellow Navy Seal Rob O'Neill May Run for Senate. KGVO. King. Jon. September 2, 2016. September 19, 2016.
  13. Web site: Endorse Troy Downing for U.S. Senate . Troydowning.com . 2018-05-02 . https://web.archive.org/web/20180611080429/https://troydowning.com/endorsements/ . 2018-06-11 . dead .
  14. News: A New Democratic Senate Majority Could be Short-Lived. National Committee for an Effective Congress. Gersh. Mark. August 18, 2016. September 19, 2016.
  15. News: Republican Fagg insists he's still 'exploring' U.S. Senate candidacy. Montana Television Network. Dennison. Mike. September 12, 2017. September 13, 2017. https://web.archive.org/web/20170912201354/http://www.kxlh.com/story/36347165/republican-fagg-insists-hes-still-exploring-us-senate-candidacy#.WbgH9YAlCWw.twitter. September 12, 2017. dead.
  16. News: Morning Digest: After six months, Montana GOP still searching for a challenger to Sen. Jon Tester. Daily Kos Elections. June 2, 2017. June 2, 2017.
  17. Web site: Democrats Likely on Defense in 2018 Senate Race. NCEC . Staff. National Committee for an Effective Congress. June 9, 2017.
  18. News: Democrats brace against potential 2018 Senate 'disaster'. Politico. Severns. Maggie. September 13, 2016. September 19, 2016.
  19. News: 2018 showdown looms: House Republicans vs. Democratic senators. Politico. Schor. Elana. Everett. Burgess. November 18, 2016. November 18, 2016.
  20. https://www.scribd.com/document/376721510/MT-Sen-WPAi-for-Club-for-Growth-April-2018 WPA Intelligence (R-Club for Growth)
  21. https://web.archive.org/web/20180209064043/https://www.mattformontana.com/sites/default/files/MR_MT_Survey_Memorandum.pdf WPA Intelligence (R-Rosendale)
  22. Ron Murray 1%
  23. Drake, Phil (March 5, 2018). "Libertarian says he'll enter Montana U.S. Senate race". Great Falls Tribune. Retrieved March 5, 2018.
  24. Web site: Libertarian candidate drops out of Montana's U.S. Senate race to back Rosendale. October 31, 2018. October 31, 2018. Brown, Matthew. . Associated Press.
  25. Doherty, Brian (October 31, 2018). "Despite Donald Trump Jr. Retweet, Libertarian Senate Candidate Rick Breckenridge Did Not Drop Out". Reason.
  26. Barber, Ellison; O'Reilly, Andrew (November 6, 2018). "Montana Libertarian candidate walks back endorsement of GOP nominee Rosendale in tight Senate race". Fox News.
  27. Web site: Despite Donald Trump Jr. Retweet, Libertarian Senate Candidate Rick Breckenridge Did Not Drop Out. October 31, 2018.
  28. Web site: Wilson . Reid . Judge boots Green Party from Montana ballot in boost to Tester . The Hill . 10 July 2018 . July 27, 2018.
  29. Web site: Green Party qualifies for MT ballot; 66 candidates file on final day for 2018 ballot. https://web.archive.org/web/20180312230244/http://www.kpax.com/story/37706409/green-party-qualifies-for-mt-ballot-libertarian-in-us-senate-race/. dead. March 12, 2018. March 12, 2018. March 12, 2018. Dennison, Mike . KPAX.
  30. Web site: 2018 Senate Race Ratings for October 26, 2018. The Cook Political Report. March 13, 2021.
  31. Web site: 2018 Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. March 13, 2021.
  32. Web site: 2018 Crystal Ball Senate race ratings. Sabato's Crystal Ball. October 11, 2017.
  33. Web site: Daily Kos Elections 2018 race ratings. Daily Kos. June 5, 2018.
  34. Web site: 2018 Senate Power Rankings. . July 10, 2018.
  35. Web site: Key Races: Senate. July 15, 2018.
  36. Web site: Battle for the Senate 2018. July 15, 2018.
  37. News: Montana - 2018 Senate Forecast. Silver. Nate. 2018-09-11. FiveThirtyEight. 2018-11-01. en-US.
  38. Web site: Campaign finance data. October 31, 2018.
  39. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1DKz3FJ7xb09iQU5S6EsoUPtuTuyKbww3/view The Trafalgar Group (R)
  40. https://web.archive.org/web/20181106214819/https://www.alliancenrfpoll.com/ HarrisX
  41. https://web.archive.org/web/20181105045457/https://twitter.com/ChangePolls/status/1059294833053855744 Change Research
  42. https://web.archive.org/web/20181105225346/https://www.alliancenrfpoll.com/ HarrisX
  43. https://archive.today/20181105002949/https://www.alliancenrfpoll.com/ HarrisX
  44. https://archive.today/20181104183155/https://www.alliancenrfpoll.com/ HarrisX
  45. https://archive.today/20181102205016/https://www.alliancenrfpoll.com/ HarrisX
  46. https://archive.today/20181101231909/https://www.alliancenrfpoll.com/ HarrisX
  47. https://www.alliancenrfpoll.com/ HarrisX
  48. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/Gravis_Montana_October_27_2018.pdf Gravis Marketing
  49. http://www.umt.edu/bigskypoll/Methodology/UMBigSkyPoll-BackgroundMemoPoll2-Fall2018.pdf University of Montana
  50. http://www.msubillings.edu/urelations/releases/newsphotos2018/oct/2018%20Montana%20Poll%20report.pdf Montana State University Billings
  51. http://helpslab.montana.edu/2018SurveyResults.html Montana State University Bozeman
  52. https://www.protectourcare.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/MontanaResults-Sept-29-2018.pdf Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care)
  53. http://orlando-politics.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/Montana-September-22-2018.pdf Gravis Marketing
  54. https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/montana-senate-race-tied-at-44-percent-in-fresh-republican-poll Axis Research (R-NRSC)
  55. https://states.aarp.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/AARP-Montana-Voter-Topline-Results-9-2018.pdf AARP/Benenson Strategy Group (D)
  56. https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/8loxdb6jae/cbs_20180916_MT_finalforrelease.pdf CBS News/YouGov
  57. http://www.umt.edu/bigskypoll/Methodology/UMBigSkyPoll-FinalFullResults2018.pdf University of Montana
  58. https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/4784861/MRFS-MTSEN-Survey-Memo-180824.pdf WPA Intelligence (R-NRSC)
  59. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/MT_General_Election_Survey_071118.pdf Remington Research (R)
  60. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1aerd3_1pJ276A7rLNRQ_Y3ifiUtSraan/view SurveyMonkey/Axios
  61. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/Montana_June_19th_2018.pdf Gravis Marketing
  62. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1qH6AbyU5kapsnOLZGf3ydy7MYKjbUo-A/view SurveyMonkey/Axios
  63. Web site: Montana Secretary of State. 2021-08-20. electionresults.mt.gov.