2018 United States Senate election in Montana explained

Election Name:	2018 United States Senate election in Montana
Country:	Montana
Type:	presidential
Ongoing:	no
Previous Election:	2012 United States Senate election in Montana
Previous Year:	2012
Next Election:	2024 United States Senate election in Montana
Next Year:	2024
Election Date:	November 6, 2018
Turnout:	71.53% (of registered voters)^[1]
Image1:	file:JonTester (cropped 2).jpg
Nominee1:	Jon Tester
Party1:	Democratic Party (United States)
Popular Vote1:	253,876
Percentage1:	50.33%
Nominee2:	Matt Rosendale
Party2:	Republican Party (United States)
Popular Vote2:	235,963
Percentage2:	46.78%
U.S. Senator
Before Election:	Jon Tester
Before Party:	Democratic Party (United States)
After Election:	Jon Tester
After Party:	Democratic Party (United States)

The 2018 United States Senate election in Montana was held on November 6, 2018, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Montana, concurrently with other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

This was one of ten Democratic-held Senate seats up for election in a state that Donald Trump won in the 2016 presidential election. Incumbent Democratic Senator Jon Tester was reelected to a third term, defeating Republican State Auditor Matt Rosendale. Rosendale conceded on November 7, 2018.^[2] This was the first Senate election in which Tester received a majority of votes cast rather than a simple plurality.

Following his loss, Rosendale went on to run for Montana's vacant congressional seat in 2020 and won, taking office in the U.S. House of Representatives in January 2021.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominated

• Jon Tester, incumbent U.S. Senator^[3]

Results

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominated

• Matt Rosendale, Auditor of Montana and candidate for Congress in 2014^[4]

Eliminated in primary

• Troy Downing, veteran and businessman^[5]
• Russell Fagg, former Yellowstone County District Judge^[6]
• Albert Olszewski, state senator and candidate for lieutenant governor in 2012^[7]

Withdrew

• Ron Murray, businessman and candidate for the state house in 2010^{[8] [9]}

Declined

• Tim Fox, Attorney General of Montana^{[10] [11]}
• Robert J. O'Neill, former Navy SEAL (endorsed Troy Downing)^{[12] [13]}
• Marc Racicot, former governor and former chairman of the Republican National Committee (endorsed Russell Fagg)^{[14] [15]}
• Corey Stapleton, Secretary of State of Montana, candidate for governor in 2012 and candidate for Congress in 2014^{[16] [17]}
• Ryan Zinke, former Secretary of the Interior and former U.S. Representative^{[18] [19]}

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Troy Downing	Russell Fagg	Al Olszewski	Matt Rosendale	Other	Undecided
WPA Intelligence (R-Club for Growth)^[20]	April 15–16, 2018	503	± 4.4%	12%	17%	8%	align=center	40%	–	23%
WPA Intelligence (R-Rosendale)^[21]	February 5–7, 2018	401	± 4.4%	12%	11%	5%	align=center	28%	1%^[22]	–

Results

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Nominated

• Rick Breckenridge, 2016 candidate for the U.S. House of Representatives^[23]

In October 2018, Breckenridge told a reporter from the Associated Press that he opposed the use of dark money in politics. Breckenridge said that he realistically anticipated only receiving three or four percent of the vote in the general election, and that he endorsed Rosendale's efforts to stop the use of dark money in politics.^[24] The Associated Press interpreted Breckenridge's comments as a statement that Breckenridge was dropping out of the race and endorsing Rosendale.^[24] Breckenridge later stated that his use of the word "endorse" referred only to stopping the use of dark money in politics, and said he was still running for the Senate.^{[25] [26] [27]}

Green Party

Kelly won the Green Party nomination, but a Montana district court judge ruled that he had insufficient signatures to get on the ballot.^[28]

Candidates

Nominee (removed from ballot)

• Steve Kelly, artist and environmental activist^[29]

Eliminated in primary

• Timothy Adams

Results

General election

Debates

• Complete video of debate, C-SPAN September 29, 2018
• Complete video of debate, YouTube October 14, 2018

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report^[30]		October 26, 2018
Inside Elections^[31]		November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball^[32]		November 5, 2018
Daily Kos^[33]		November 1, 2018
Fox News^[34]		November 1, 2018
CNN^[35]		November 1, 2018
RealClearPolitics^[36]		November 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEight^[37]		November 6, 2018

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of October 17, 2018
Candidate (party)	Total receipts	Total disbursements	Cash on hand
	Jon Tester (D)	$19,499,290	$17,946,600	$1,612,530
	Matt Rosendale (R)	$5,034,075	$4,515,910	$524,379
	Rick Breckenridge (L)	align="right"	-	align="right"	-	align="right"	-
Source: Federal Election Commission^[38]

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Jon Tester (D)	Matt Rosendale (R)	Rick	Other	Undecided
The Trafalgar Group (R)^[39]	November 2–5, 2018	953	± 3.2%	align=center	50%	49%	–	1%	0%
HarrisX^[40]	November 1–5, 2018	500	± 4.4%	align=center	50%	42%	–	–	–
Change Research^[41]	November 2–4, 2018	879	–	46%	align=center	49%	3%	–	–
HarrisX^[42]	October 31 – November 4, 2018	500	± 4.4%	align=center	49%	43%	–	–	–
HarrisX^[43]	October 30 – November 3, 2018	500	± 4.4%	align=center	49%	43%	–	–	–
HarrisX^[44]	October 29 – November 2, 2018	500	± 4.4%	align=center	50%	42%	–	–	–
HarrisX^[45]	October 28 – November 1, 2018	500	± 4.4%	align=center	49%	42%	–	–	–
HarrisX^[46]	October 27–31, 2018	500	± 4.4%	align=center	49%	42%	–	–	–
HarrisX^[47]	October 24–30, 2018	700	± 3.7%	align=center	48%	40%	–	–	–
Gravis Marketing^[48]	October 24–26, 2018	782	± 3.5%	align=center	48%	45%	–	–	7%
University of Montana^[49]	October 10–18, 2018	533	± 4.3%	align=center	49%	39%	2%	–	10%
Montana State University Billings^[50]	October 8–13, 2018	471	± 4.5%	align=center	47%	38%	3%	–	12%
Montana State University Bozeman^[51]	September 15 – October 6, 2018	2,079	± 2.2%	align=center	46%	43%	3%	2%	7%
Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care)^[52]	September 28, 2018	594	± 4.0%	align=center	49%	45%	–	–	6%
Gravis Marketing^[53]	September 19–22, 2018	710	± 3.7%	align=center	49%	45%	–	–	6%
Axis Research (R-NRSC)^[54]	September 17–19, 2018	–<	-- sample size of 480 imputed from from reported margin of error -->	± 4.5%	44%	44%	4%	–	8%
AARP/Benenson Strategy Group (D)^[55]	September 6–16, 2018	950	± 3.1%	align=center	50%	43%	–	2%	5%
CBS News/YouGov^[56]	September 10–14, 2018	453	–	align=center	47%	45%	–	3%	5%
University of Montana^[57]	August 13–31, 2018	466	± 4.5%	align=center	56%	32%	2%	–	9%
WPA Intelligence (R-NRSC)^[58]	August 20–22, 2018	600	± 4.0%	45%	align=center	47%	–	–	5%
Remington Research (R)^[59]	July 8–10, 2018	2,581	± 2.0%	align=center	49%	46%	–	–	5%
SurveyMonkey/Axios^[60]	June 11 – July 2, 2018	974	± 5.0%	align=center	55%	43%	–	–	3%
Gravis Marketing^[61]	June 11–13, 2018	469	± 4.5%	align=center	52%	44%	–	–	4%

Results

By county

From Secretary of State of Montana^[63]

County	Jon Tester Democratic		Matt Rosendale Republican		Rick Breckenridge Libertarian		TotalVotes
		%		%		%
	Beaverhead	1,876	38.31%	2,866	58.53%	155	3.17%	4,897
	Big Horn	3,027	64.73%	1,558	33.32%	91	1.95%	4,676
	Blaine	1,961	64.96%	982	32.53%	76	2.52%	3,019
	Broadwater	1,071	32.84%	2,086	63.97%	104	3.19%	3,261
	Carbon	2,680	44.17%	3,209	52.89%	178	2.93%	6,067
	Carter	128	17.02%	602	80.05%	22	2.93%	752
	Cascade	17,435	51.27%	15,566	45.77%	1,008	2.96%	34,009
	Chouteau	1,275	47.99%	1,312	49.38%	70	2.63%	2,657
	Custer	1,942	39.77%	2,762	56.56%	179	3.67%	4,883
	Daniels	281	29.86%	631	67.06%	29	3.08%	941
	Dawson	1,233	30.27%	2,700	66.29%	140	3.44%	4,073
	Deer Lodge	2,892	68.27%	1,208	28.52%	136	3.21%	4,236
	Fallon	281	21.80%	951	73.78%	57	4.42%	1,289
	Fergus	1,964	33.90%	3,640	62.83%	189	3.26%	5,793
	Flathead	19,652	41.15%	26,759	56.03%	1,349	2.82%	47,760
	Gallatin	33,251	59.45%	21,248	37.99%	1,434	2.56%	55,933
	Garfield	81	11.88%	571	83.72%	30	4.40%	682
	Glacier	3,754	75.14%	1,153	23.08%	89	1.78%	4,996
	Golden Valley	130	28.63%	303	66.74%	21	4.63%	454
	Granite	695	38.76%	1,046	58.34%	52	2.90%	1,793
	Hill	3,729	58.36%	2,434	38.09%	227	3.55%	6,390
	Jefferson	2,954	43.23%	3,653	53.46%	226	3.31%	6,833
	Judith Basin	388	32.58%	752	63.14%	51	4.28%	1,191
	Lake	6,916	50.22%	6,491	47.13%	365	2.65%	13,772
	Lewis and Clark	20,506	57.70%	14,106	39.69%	927	2.61%	35,539
	Liberty	365	37.21%	586	59.73%	30	3.06%	981
	Lincoln	2,902	31.08%	6,137	65.73%	298	3.19%	9,337
	Madison	1,890	38.11%	2,898	58.44%	171	3.45%	4,959
	McCone	227	22.06%	773	75.12%	29	2.82%	1,029
	Meagher	319	32.68%	629	64.45%	28	2.87%	976
	Mineral	785	38.14%	1,181	57.39%	92	4.47%	2,058
	Missoula	41,688	67.62%	18,631	30.22%	1,332	2.16%	61,651
	Musselshell	573	23.56%	1,743	71.67%	116	4.77%	2,432
	Park	5,114	52.59%	4,357	44.81%	253	2.60%	9,724
	Petroleum	58	18.59%	248	79.49%	6	1.92%	312
	Phillips	577	27.71%	1,426	68.49%	79	3.79%	2,082
	Pondera	1,176	43.80%	1,413	52.63%	96	3.58%	2,685
	Powder River	203	20.86%	748	76.88%	22	2.26%	973
	Powell	1,026	37.17%	1,641	59.46%	93	3.37%	2,760
	Prairie	177	27.11%	450	68.91%	26	3.98%	653
	Ravalli	9,156	39.13%	13,622	58.21%	623	2.66%	23,401
	Richland	1,136	26.22%	3,017	69.64%	179	4.13%	4,332
	Roosevelt	2,013	58.40%	1,346	39.05%	88	2.55%	3,447
	Rosebud	1,511	44.88%	1,765	52.42%	91	2.70%	3,367
	Sanders	2,071	33.65%	3,856	62.66%	227	3.69%	6,154
	Sheridan	712	39.29%	1,017	56.13%	83	4.58%	1,812
	Silver Bow	11,672	71.55%	4,246	26.03%	394	2.42%	16,312
	Stillwater	1,501	30.86%	3,206	65.91%	157	3.23%	4,864
	Sweet Grass	652	31.08%	1,372	65.40%	74	3.53%	2,098
	Teton	1,290	40.86%	1,784	56.51%	83	2.63%	3,157
	Toole	626	32.90%	1,208	63.48%	69	3.63%	1,903
	Treasure	129	31.16%	279	67.39%	6	1.45%	414
	Valley	1,545	39.80%	2,137	55.05%	200	5.15%	3,882
	Wheatland	315	33.76%	586	62.81%	32	3.43%	933
	Wibaux	140	25.83%	390	71.96%	12	2.21%	542
	Yellowstone	32,225	46.53%	34,682	50.08%	2,351	3.39%	69,258

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

• Chouteau (largest municipality: Fort Benton)
• Rosebud (largest municipality: Colstrip)
• Yellowstone (largest municipality: Billings)

External links

• Candidates at Vote Smart
• Candidates at Ballotpedia
• Campaign finance at FEC
• Campaign finance at OpenSecrets

Official campaign websites

• Matt Rosendale (R) for Senate
• Jon Tester (D) for Senate

Notes and References

1. News: 2018-02-22 . Montana Voter Turnout - Official Montana Secretary of State Website - Christi Jacobsen . 2024-02-07 . Montana Secretary of State - Christi Jacobsen . en-US.
2. http://www.kulr8.com/story/39438000/rosendale-congratulates-sen-tester-on-his-victory Rosendale congratulates Sen. Tester on his victory
3. Web site: Montana Senator Tester says $1.2M raised in 3rd quarter for re-election . Greatfallstribune.com . 2017-10-09 . 2018-05-02.
4. News: Montana auditor says he'll seek US Senate seat. Great Falls Tribune. Caina Calvan. Bobby. July 31, 2017. July 31, 2017.
5. News: Storage company CEO files to run against Tester. Great Falls Tribune. Volz. Matt. May 18, 2017. June 2, 2017.
6. News: Former Judge Russell Fagg enters Senate race for Tester's seat. Billings Gazette. Lutey. Tom. October 14, 2017.
7. News: Republican Olszewski says he's going to run against Tester in 2018. Independent Record. Michels. Holly K.. April 11, 2017. April 11, 2017.
8. News: Belgrade Republican announces candidacy for GOP Senate bid. Independent Record. Michels. Holly K.. June 23, 2017. July 5, 2017.
9. News: GOP U.S. Senate candidate Murray drops out. KXLH. 2018-08-16. https://web.archive.org/web/20180816194539/http://www.kxlh.com/story/37506693/gop-us-senate-candidate-murray-drops-out/. 2018-08-16. dead.
10. News: Montana AG declines Senate run against Tester. Politico. Robillard. Kevin. Schneider. Elena. June 2, 2017. June 2, 2017.
11. News: Montana attorney general Fox won't run for U.S. Senate. Great Falls Tribune. Caina Calvan. Bobby. June 5, 2017. June 6, 2017.
12. News: Ryan Zinke Hints That Fellow Navy Seal Rob O'Neill May Run for Senate. KGVO. King. Jon. September 2, 2016. September 19, 2016.
13. Web site: Endorse Troy Downing for U.S. Senate . Troydowning.com . 2018-05-02 . https://web.archive.org/web/20180611080429/https://troydowning.com/endorsements/ . 2018-06-11 . dead .
14. News: A New Democratic Senate Majority Could be Short-Lived. National Committee for an Effective Congress. Gersh. Mark. August 18, 2016. September 19, 2016.
15. News: Republican Fagg insists he's still 'exploring' U.S. Senate candidacy. Montana Television Network. Dennison. Mike. September 12, 2017. September 13, 2017. https://web.archive.org/web/20170912201354/http://www.kxlh.com/story/36347165/republican-fagg-insists-hes-still-exploring-us-senate-candidacy#.WbgH9YAlCWw.twitter. September 12, 2017. dead.
16. News: Morning Digest: After six months, Montana GOP still searching for a challenger to Sen. Jon Tester. Daily Kos Elections. June 2, 2017. June 2, 2017.
17. Web site: Democrats Likely on Defense in 2018 Senate Race. NCEC . Staff. National Committee for an Effective Congress. June 9, 2017.
18. News: Democrats brace against potential 2018 Senate 'disaster'. Politico. Severns. Maggie. September 13, 2016. September 19, 2016.
19. News: 2018 showdown looms: House Republicans vs. Democratic senators. Politico. Schor. Elana. Everett. Burgess. November 18, 2016. November 18, 2016.
20. https://www.scribd.com/document/376721510/MT-Sen-WPAi-for-Club-for-Growth-April-2018 WPA Intelligence (R-Club for Growth)
21. https://web.archive.org/web/20180209064043/https://www.mattformontana.com/sites/default/files/MR_MT_Survey_Memorandum.pdf WPA Intelligence (R-Rosendale)
22. Ron Murray 1%
23. Drake, Phil (March 5, 2018). "Libertarian says he'll enter Montana U.S. Senate race". Great Falls Tribune. Retrieved March 5, 2018.
24. Web site: Libertarian candidate drops out of Montana's U.S. Senate race to back Rosendale. October 31, 2018. October 31, 2018. Brown, Matthew. . Associated Press.
25. Doherty, Brian (October 31, 2018). "Despite Donald Trump Jr. Retweet, Libertarian Senate Candidate Rick Breckenridge Did Not Drop Out". Reason.
26. Barber, Ellison; O'Reilly, Andrew (November 6, 2018). "Montana Libertarian candidate walks back endorsement of GOP nominee Rosendale in tight Senate race". Fox News.
27. Web site: Despite Donald Trump Jr. Retweet, Libertarian Senate Candidate Rick Breckenridge Did Not Drop Out. October 31, 2018.
28. Web site: Wilson . Reid . Judge boots Green Party from Montana ballot in boost to Tester . The Hill . 10 July 2018 . July 27, 2018.
29. Web site: Green Party qualifies for MT ballot; 66 candidates file on final day for 2018 ballot. https://web.archive.org/web/20180312230244/http://www.kpax.com/story/37706409/green-party-qualifies-for-mt-ballot-libertarian-in-us-senate-race/. dead. March 12, 2018. March 12, 2018. March 12, 2018. Dennison, Mike . KPAX.
30. Web site: 2018 Senate Race Ratings for October 26, 2018. The Cook Political Report. March 13, 2021.
31. Web site: 2018 Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. March 13, 2021.
32. Web site: 2018 Crystal Ball Senate race ratings. Sabato's Crystal Ball. October 11, 2017.
33. Web site: Daily Kos Elections 2018 race ratings. Daily Kos. June 5, 2018.
34. Web site: 2018 Senate Power Rankings. . July 10, 2018.
35. Web site: Key Races: Senate. July 15, 2018.
36. Web site: Battle for the Senate 2018. July 15, 2018.
37. News: Montana - 2018 Senate Forecast. Silver. Nate. 2018-09-11. FiveThirtyEight. 2018-11-01. en-US.
38. Web site: Campaign finance data. October 31, 2018.
39. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1DKz3FJ7xb09iQU5S6EsoUPtuTuyKbww3/view The Trafalgar Group (R)
40. https://web.archive.org/web/20181106214819/https://www.alliancenrfpoll.com/ HarrisX
41. https://web.archive.org/web/20181105045457/https://twitter.com/ChangePolls/status/1059294833053855744 Change Research
42. https://web.archive.org/web/20181105225346/https://www.alliancenrfpoll.com/ HarrisX
43. https://archive.today/20181105002949/https://www.alliancenrfpoll.com/ HarrisX
44. https://archive.today/20181104183155/https://www.alliancenrfpoll.com/ HarrisX
45. https://archive.today/20181102205016/https://www.alliancenrfpoll.com/ HarrisX
46. https://archive.today/20181101231909/https://www.alliancenrfpoll.com/ HarrisX
47. https://www.alliancenrfpoll.com/ HarrisX
48. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/Gravis_Montana_October_27_2018.pdf Gravis Marketing
49. http://www.umt.edu/bigskypoll/Methodology/UMBigSkyPoll-BackgroundMemoPoll2-Fall2018.pdf University of Montana
50. http://www.msubillings.edu/urelations/releases/newsphotos2018/oct/2018%20Montana%20Poll%20report.pdf Montana State University Billings
51. http://helpslab.montana.edu/2018SurveyResults.html Montana State University Bozeman
52. https://www.protectourcare.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/MontanaResults-Sept-29-2018.pdf Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care)
53. http://orlando-politics.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/Montana-September-22-2018.pdf Gravis Marketing
54. https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/montana-senate-race-tied-at-44-percent-in-fresh-republican-poll Axis Research (R-NRSC)
55. https://states.aarp.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/AARP-Montana-Voter-Topline-Results-9-2018.pdf AARP/Benenson Strategy Group (D)
56. https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/8loxdb6jae/cbs_20180916_MT_finalforrelease.pdf CBS News/YouGov
57. http://www.umt.edu/bigskypoll/Methodology/UMBigSkyPoll-FinalFullResults2018.pdf University of Montana
58. https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/4784861/MRFS-MTSEN-Survey-Memo-180824.pdf WPA Intelligence (R-NRSC)
59. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/MT_General_Election_Survey_071118.pdf Remington Research (R)
60. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1aerd3_1pJ276A7rLNRQ_Y3ifiUtSraan/view SurveyMonkey/Axios
61. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/Montana_June_19th_2018.pdf Gravis Marketing
62. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1qH6AbyU5kapsnOLZGf3ydy7MYKjbUo-A/view SurveyMonkey/Axios
63. Web site: Montana Secretary of State. 2021-08-20. electionresults.mt.gov.