2014 United States Senate election in Montana explained

Election Name:2014 United States Senate election in Montana
Country:Montana
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2008 United States Senate election in Montana
Previous Year:2008
Next Election:2020 United States Senate election in Montana
Next Year:2020
Election Date:November 4, 2014
Image1:File:Steve Daines, official portrait, 113th Congress (cropped).jpg
Nominee1:Steve Daines
Party1:Republican Party (United States)
Popular Vote1:213,709
Percentage1:57.79%
Nominee2:Amanda Curtis
Party2:Democratic Party (United States)
Popular Vote2:148,184
Percentage2:40.07%
Map Size:300px
U.S. Senator
Before Election:John Walsh
Before Party:Democratic Party (United States)
After Election:Steve Daines
After Party:Republican Party (United States)

The 2014 United States Senate election in Montana took place on November 4, 2014, to elect a member of the United States Senate from Montana, concurrently with other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Democratic Senator Max Baucus, who had announced he would retire and not seek a seventh term, resigned in February 2014 in order to accept an appointment as United States Ambassador to China under President Barack Obama. Democrat John Walsh, the Lieutenant Governor of Montana, who was already running for Baucus' seat when Baucus was named to the ambassadorship, was appointed to replace Baucus by Governor Steve Bullock.[1]

Walsh won the Democratic primary on June 3 and ran for a first full term in office, but withdrew from the race on August 7, 2014, due to allegations that he had plagiarized a term paper while attending the Army War College.[2] Democrats selected Amanda Curtis, a state representative from Butte, to replace Walsh as the party's nominee at a convention in Helena on August 16.[3] Steve Daines, the incumbent U.S. Representative from Montana's at-large congressional district, easily won the Republican nomination.

Daines defeated Curtis 57.9% to 40.0%, while Libertarian Roger Roots won 2.2%. Daines and Arkansas' Tom Cotton became just the 18th and 19th U.S. House freshmen to win U.S. Senate races over the last 100 years, and just the third and fourth over the last 40 years.[4] Daines became the first Republican to win this Senate seat since 1907, as well as the first to ever be popularly elected to the seat.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Polling

Poll sourceJohn
Walsh
Dirk
Adams
John
Bohlinger
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling[29] November 15–17, 2013381± 5% align=center39%3%31%27%
Harper Polling[30] January 20–22, 2014519± 4.3%23%2%23% align=center52%
Poll sourceMax
Baucus
Brian
Schweitzer
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling[31] June 16–19, 2011333± 5.4%34% align=center51%14%
Public Policy Polling[32] November 28–30, 2011573± 4.1%35% align=center51%14%
Public Policy Polling[33] April 26–29, 2012332± 5.4%37% align=center48%15%
Public Policy PollingSeptember 10–11, 2012201± 5.4%36% align=center40%24%
Public Policy Polling[34] February 15–17, 2013371± 5.1%35% align=center54%11%

Results

Democratic convention

Because Walsh withdrew, a nominating convention was held to pick a new nominee prior to August 20.[36] The state party called a convention for August 16, and voting delegates were members of the State Central Committee, specifically: "one chair and one vice chair from each existing county central committee; one state committeeman and one state committeewoman from each county central committee; all voting members of the State Party Executive Board; the president of each chartered organization of the Montana Democratic Party; Montana State House leadership, and Montana State Senate leaders, and all Democrats currently holding statewide or federal office."[37]

Candidates

Momentary buzz was created by a movement to draft actor Jeff Bridges for the nomination, with over 1,000 people signing a petition on Change.org and a Twitter account, DudeSenator, being created online. Bridges, who lives part-time and owns property in the Paradise Valley south of Livingston, Montana, declined the offer on the Howard Stern show, noting the disapproval of his wife. Other news outlets noted that he also was not registered to vote in Montana.[38] [39]

Potential

Withdrew

Declined

Results

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Withdrew

Declined

Polling

Poll sourceSteve
Daines
Champ
Edmunds
Marc
Racicot
Corey
Stapleton
Undecided
Harper PollingApril 27–28, 2013472± 4.51%26%3% align=center42%6%22%
Public Policy Polling[64] June 21–23, 2013340± 5.3%28%5% align=center47%5%14%

Results

Libertarian nomination

Candidates

Declared

Independents

Candidates

Declined

General election

Debates

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
align=left The Cook Political Report[66] November 3, 2014
align=left Sabato's Crystal Ball[67] November 3, 2014
align=left Rothenberg Political Report[68] November 3, 2014
align=left Real Clear Politics[69] November 3, 2014

Polling

Poll sourceSteve
Daines (R)
Amanda
Curtis (D)
OtherUndecided
Rasmussen Reports[70] August 18–19, 2014750± 4% align=center55%35%2%8%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov[71] August 18 – September 2, 2014684± 5% align=center53%35%1%11%
Gravis Marketing[72] September 29–30, 2014535± 4% align=center54%41%5%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov[73] September 20 – October 1, 2014549± 5% align=center55%34%0%10%
The MSU-Billings Poll[74] October 6–11, 2014410± 5% align=center47%31%2%21%
CBS News/NYT/YouGovOctober 16–23, 2014497± 6% align=center56%38%0%6%
Gravis Marketing[75] October 23–24, 2014604± 4% align=center53%39%8%

With Adams

with Baucus

With Bohlinger

Poll sourceJohn
Bohlinger (D)
Steve
Daines (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingNovember 15–17, 2013952± 3.2%36% align=center51%13%
Harper PollingJanuary 20–22, 2014519± 4.3%32% align=center43%25%
Harper Polling[76] April 7–8, 2014604± 4.3%33% align=center44%23%

With Juneau

With Keenan

With Lindeen

With Schweitzer

Poll sourceBrian
Schweitzer (D)
Steve
Daines (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingFebruary 15–17, 20131,011± 3.1% align=center48%45%7%
Harper PollingApril 27–28, 2013771± 3.53% align=center50%40%10%
Public Policy PollingJune 21–23, 2013807± 3.4% align=center48%45%7%
Poll sourceBrian
Schweitzer (D)
Champ
Edmunds (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingFebruary 15–17, 20131,011± 3.1% align=center52%37%12%
Public Policy PollingJune 21–23, 2013807± 3.4% align=center52%37%11%
Poll sourceBrian
Schweitzer (D)
Marc
Racicot (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingFebruary 15–17, 20131,011± 3.1%45% align=center46%9%
Harper PollingApril 27–28, 2013771± 3.53% align=center47%43%10%
Public Policy PollingJune 21–23, 2013807± 3.4%46% align=center47%6%
Poll sourceBrian
Schweitzer (D)
Corey
Stapleton (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingFebruary 15–17, 20131,011± 3.1% align=center49%39%13%
Public Policy PollingJune 21–23, 2013807± 3.4% align=center52%38%10%

With Walsh

Poll sourceJohn
Walsh (D)
Steve
Daines (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingNovember 15–17, 2013952± 3.2%35% align=center52%13%
Harper PollingJanuary 20–22, 2014519± 4.3%29% align=center43%28%
Rasmussen ReportsMarch 17–18, 2014750± 4%37% align=center51%4%9%
Magellan Strategies[77] April 1–2, 20142,490± 1.96%36% align=center49%9%[78] 6%
Harper PollingApril 7–8, 2014604± 4.3%35% align=center42%23%
Hickman Analytics[79] April 24–30, 2014400± 4.9%37% align=center49%14%
Vox Populi Polling[80] May 21–22, 2014806± 3.5%33% align=center56%11%
Magellan Strategies[81] June 4–5, 2014761± 3.57%39% align=center55%6%
Rasmussen ReportsJune 9–10, 2014750± 4%35% align=center53%3%9%
Public Policy Polling[82] July 17–18, 2014574± 4.1%39% align=center46%15%
Gravis Marketing[83] July 20–22, 2014741± 4%41% align=center45%6%7%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov[84] July 5–24, 2014838± 3.6%39% align=center55%2%4%
Gravis Marketing[85] July 24, 2014781± 3.5%38% align=center45%9%[86] 8%
Vox Populi Polling[87] August 3–4, 2014798± 3.5%34% align=center47%18%

Results

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

See also

External links

Notes and References

  1. Web site: Montana gov taps John Walsh to replace Baucus in Senate . . February 7, 2014 . February 7, 2014 . Catalina . Camia.
  2. Web site: Walsh drops out of U.S. Senate race . Billings Gazette . August 7, 2014 . August 7, 2014 . Charles . Johnson.
  3. Web site: Amanda Curtis wins Montana Democratic nomination to U.S. Senate . The Missoulian . August 16, 2014 . August 16, 2014.
  4. Web site: Will a Freshman US Representative Win a Senate Seat in 2016? . Smart Politics . Eric . Ostermeier . November 17, 2014.
  5. News: Wilsall rancher/political unknown says he's running as Democrat for Baucus' Senate seat . Mike . Dennison . . August 14, 2013.
  6. Web site: Former Lt. Gov. John Bohlinger says he's running for U.S. Senate. helenair.com . November 5, 2013.
  7. Web site: Bohlinger says he will probably drop out of U.S. Senate race . February 7, 2014 . March 10, 2014 . Missoulian.
  8. Web site: Bohlinger stays in US Senate race . March 8, 2014 . March 10, 2014 . . Dennison . Mike.
  9. News: Montana Democrats get Senate candidate . Matt . Gorous . . October 3, 2013.
  10. News: Johnson . Charles . Walsh drops out of race for U.S. Senate . August 12, 2014 . Missoulian . August 7, 2014.
  11. News: Baucus to retire rather than seek re-election in 2014, strategists say . Washington Post . April 23, 2013.
  12. News: Senate candidate wants more Congressional oversight . Laura . Lundquist . . August 26, 2013 . August 27, 2013.
  13. Web site: Bullock says 'absolutely not' to Senate race. . missoulian.com . May 17, 2013.
  14. Web site: U.S. House race hinges on Daines' decision . Ravalli Republic . October 5, 2013 . November 6, 2013.
  15. Web site: After careful consideration, I decided to not... . FaceBook . March 17, 2014 . April 13, 2014.
  16. Web site: Trygstad . Kyle . Yet Another Democrat Declines Montana Senate Bid . Roll Call . August 5, 2013 . August 5, 2013.
  17. News: Nancy Keenan joins Hilltop Public Solutions . The Montana Standard . December 7, 2013 . December 16, 2013.
  18. News: Democrat John Lewis files to run for state's U.S. House seat . The Missoulian . August 26, 2013.
  19. News: Democrat Lindeen says no to run for U.S. Senate seat . The Missoulian . July 16, 2013.
  20. News: For Ambitious Montana Politicians, the Time Is Now . Roll Call . October 9, 2013.
  21. Web site: Montana Democratic women consider running for U.S. Senate . . missoulian.com . May 5, 2013.
  22. News: Schweitzer decision prompts Dems to look at possibility of running . Billings Gazette . July 13, 2013.
  23. Web site: REBECCA ELLIOTT . EMILY's List chief won't run for Senate . Politico.Com . July 31, 2013 . August 7, 2014.
  24. Web site: Schweitzer won't run for U.S. Senate seat. . missoulian.com . July 13, 2013.
  25. Web site: Growing number of Montana Democrats consider U.S. Senate run. missoulian.com . July 15, 2013.
  26. News: Wheat to run for another term as Montana Supreme Court justice . missoulian.com . January 10, 2014.
  27. Web site: Trygstad . Kyle . Ex-Congressman Says No to Montana Senate Bid . Roll Call . August 13, 2013.
  28. News: After spending the past several weeks speaking... . Facebook . September 9, 2013.
  29. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2013/PPP_Release_MT_111913.pdf Public Policy Polling
  30. http://www.americancrossroads.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/AC-Toplines-2-7-14.pdf Harper Polling
  31. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_MT_0705.pdf Public Policy Polling
  32. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MT_1207424.pdf Public Policy Polling
  33. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MT_050412.pdf Public Policy Polling
  34. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MT_021913.pdf Public Policy Polling
  35. https://web.archive.org/web/20130503034322/http://www.harperpolling.com/polls/montana-senate-national-issues-threaten-schweitzer%27s-small-lead Harper Polling
  36. Web site: Montana Senate candidate John Walsh pulls out of race after plagiarism scandal . The Guardian . August 7, 2014 . August 12, 2014 . Dan Roberts.
  37. Web site: Montana Democratic Party Releases Process and Procedures for Special Nominating Convention . Montana Democratic Party . August 12, 2014 . https://web.archive.org/web/20140813090642/http://www.montanademocrats.org/node/522 . August 13, 2014 . dead .
  38. Web site: Missoulian State Bureau . 'The Dude' won't abide calls for U.S. Senate run in Montana . Ravalli Republic . August 12, 2014 . August 12, 2014.
  39. Web site: With John Walsh's exit, Montana Democrats prepare to select new nominee . Lee, Kurtis . Los Angeles Times . August 12, 2014 . August 12, 2014.
  40. Web site: At least 3 seek to replace Walsh on Montana's U.S. Senate ballot . Ravallirepublic.com . August 12, 2014.
  41. Web site: Schweitzer, Bullock won't replace Walsh in Senate race . Missoulian.com . August 8, 2014 . August 9, 2014.
  42. News: Who is Montana's Linda McCulloch? . Greg Strandberg . Big Sky Words . August 10, 2014.
  43. Web site: Butte's Curtis, other Democrats interested in Walsh seat . The Montana Standard . August 7, 2014 . August 10, 2014.
  44. News: Franke Wilmer drops out of race for U.S. Senate . Beth . Saboe . 7 KBZK . August 11, 2014 . August 11, 2014 . https://web.archive.org/web/20140812223352/http://www.kbzk.com/news/franke-wilmer-drops-out-of-race-for-u-s-senate/ . August 12, 2014 . dead . mdy-all .
  45. News: Schweitzer, Bullock won't replace Walsh in Senate race . Ravalli Republic . August 8, 2014 . August 13, 2014.
  46. News: Walsh ends Senate campaign amid plagiarism scandal . The Hill . August 7, 2014 . August 13, 2014.
  47. Web site: Missoula's Edmunds, Cundiff file for U.S. Senate race; Fellows runs for House . March 10, 2014 . March 12, 2014 . Missoulian . Charles S. Johnson.
  48. Web site: Baucus retires, but a Schweitzer candidacy may be better for Dems . https://web.archive.org/web/20131105183229/http://www.nbcnews.com/id/51633786/ . dead . November 5, 2013 . April 23, 2013 . April 23, 2013 . . Jessica . Taylor.
  49. Web site: Steve Daines to announce Senate bid . November 5, 2013 . November 5, 2013 . Manu . Raju . POLITICO.
  50. Web site: Montana: Baucus Gets Second GOP Challenger . February 27, 2013 . February 28, 2013 . Roll Call . Kyle . Trygstad.
  51. Web site: Kalispell man launches Senate bid . October 2, 2013 . October 7, 2013 . Daily Inter Lake.
  52. Web site: Kalispell air-traffic manager drops US Senate bid . February 18, 2014 . March 10, 2014 . Independent Record.
  53. Web site: Montana Senate Field Now Cleared for Daines | #MTSEN | At the Races . Atr.rollcall.com . September 3, 2013 . August 7, 2014.
  54. Web site: Chuck Baldwin: Christians: It's Time to Vote With Your Feet . February 25, 2013 . April 23, 2013 . Independent Political Report . Chuck . Baldwin.
  55. Web site: All eyes on Brian Schweitzer in wake of Max Baucus retirement . April 23, 2013 . November 4, 2013 . . Sean . Sullivan.
  56. Web site: GOP Rep. Steve Daines mulling Montana Senate bid once more . TheHill . June 23, 2014 . August 7, 2014.
  57. Web site: 2014 FIELD SHAPING UP . July 16, 2013 . July 18, 2013 . Montana Cowgirl.
  58. "http://helenair.com/news/state-and-regional/racicot-declines-us-senate-bid/article_ecfef050-039e-5ed5-81eb-7dbb63a1ec47.html "
  59. News: Rehberg will not run in 2014 . MTN News . January 13, 2014 . January 14, 2014 . https://web.archive.org/web/20140115064110/http://www.kxlf.com/news/rehberg-will-not-run-in-2014/ . January 15, 2014 . dead .
  60. News: Formerly 'all in' House candidate now won't run . Billings Gazette . October 3, 2013.
  61. Web site: Rosendale launches House race . . Johnson . Charles S. . October 15, 2013 . October 21, 2013.
  62. Web site: Larry Williams running for Senate — unless Daines does . October 3, 2013 . October 7, 2013 . . Charles S. . Johnson.
  63. Web site: Whitefish's Zinke announces GOP candidacy for U.S. House . . Lutey . Tom . October 21, 2013 . October 21, 2013.
  64. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MT_625.pdf Public Policy Polling
  65. Web site: Billings real estate broker seeks spot on ballot for Montana's U.S. Senate seat . Missoulian . February 10, 2014 . February 11, 2014 . Mike . Dennison.
  66. Web site: 2014 Senate Race Ratings for November 3, 2014 . The Cook Political Report . September 20, 2018.
  67. Web site: The Crystal Ball's Final 2014 Picks . Sabato's Crystal Ball . September 20, 2018.
  68. Web site: 2014 Senate Ratings . Senate Ratings . The Rothenberg Political Report . September 20, 2018.
  69. Web site: 2014 Elections Map - Battle for the Senate 2014 . Real Clear Politics . September 20, 2018.
  70. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2014/montana/election_2014_montana_senate Rasmussen Reports
  71. https://today.yougov.com/news/2014/09/07/battleground-tracker-2014-montana/ CBS News/NYT/YouGov
  72. http://gravismarketing.com/polling-and-market-research/current-montana-polling-results/ Gravis Marketing
  73. http://today.yougov.com/news/2014/09/07/senate-races-battleground-tracker/ CBS News/NYT/YouGov
  74. https://web.archive.org/web/20141021042031/http://www.msubillings.edu/urelations/releases/2014/POLL_2014.pdf The MSU-Billings Poll
  75. http://gravismarketing.com/polling-and-market-research/current-montana-polling/ Gravis Marketing
  76. http://www.americancrossroads.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/AC-14.04-MT-Toplines.pdf Harper Polling
  77. http://www.slideshare.net/MagellanStrat/magellan-strategies-montana-us-senate-survey-release-041014 Magellan Strategies
  78. Roger Roots (L) 4%, Other 5%
  79. https://web.archive.org/web/20140508061521/http://buildkxlnow.org/wp/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/MT-topline-tables.pdf Hickman Analytics
  80. https://web.archive.org/web/20150119223425/http://www.poppolling.com/useruploads/files/mt_senate_-_topline.pdf Vox Populi Polling
  81. https://web.archive.org/web/20140715000441/http://www.nbcmontana.com/news/daines-ahead-of-walsh-in-newly-released-political-polls/26472252 Magellan Strategies
  82. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/PPP_Release_MT_721.pdf Public Policy Polling
  83. http://gravismarketing.com/polling-and-market-research/montana-poll-results-us-senate-governor-and-us-house-race Gravis Marketing
  84. http://www.cbsnews.com/news/2014-midterms-republicans-narrowly-favored-to-capture-senate-in-november/ CBS News/NYT/YouGov
  85. http://gravismarketing.com/polling-and-market-research/new-montana-poll/ Gravis Marketing
  86. Roger Roots (L)
  87. http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/vox-populi-r-20062 Vox Populi Polling